EPTChrono Trigger Mafia - Page 341
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18098 Posts
I can't get much out of it, best I can do with it is conclude that GK, Clarity, Keirathi, Syllo, Chronicler, Kita and Prom are probably not scum. + Show Spoiler [full conclusions] + People risk.nuke did not talk to/about (or talked to so little that it doesn't count): VE/BioSC SnB Zbo/Austin Phagga Iamperfection Adam Clarity Marv People risk.nuke calls scum: Toad VE/BioSC (Kita) Adam CJ (well, wants him dead) People risk.nuke throws random suspicions at and/or tries to discredit: Prom Acro (Kita) Syllo Dieno People risk.nuke calls town (sometimes indirectly): GK Djodref Marv Syllo Keirathi Chronicler Dienosore Clarity | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18098 Posts
On December 05 2012 23:00 Adam4167 wrote: I think he called Kita a scummy player at one point, does that count? And yeah, the night actions from the scum this game have been all over the place, has literally made my role useless, so bravo guys. Mind claiming who you tried to guess for the last few nights? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
For right now, I took a peek at my fellow candidates' claims. Quicker than filters, maybe something there. We've got some nights with KP unaccounted for - looks like Marv getting hit for a bunch, the amount that Syllo took a few nights back (if risk hit syllo, that's still a lot of damage leftover). So I'm more inclined to believe that the remaining scum has KP available, since I'm not the source of the unknown KP. Add to that the small amounts of KP from the first couple days, for which we also don't have a source. Out of the claims of me/hopeless1der/phagga/adam/goodkarma (which seems to be the list of people that aren't yet confirmed), I claimed conditional kp Hopeless1der claimed kp phagga claimed to copy something random (potentially kp if used on him) adam claimed kp goodkarma claimed kp So that...doesn't help at all. Out of just the roles and actions, without looking through filters yet, I'm most suspicious of the claims that could result in variable damage. Adam shot me, but I took the amount of damage he claims he can deal, and even though his claim means that he's more or less unaccounted for most nights ("Guessed wrong, didn't get a shot"), the flavor of his role feels like a nice counterbalance to snb's role. snb punishes roleclaiming as town. Adam has the potential to punish scum hitting the obvious townies. It's not a 1:1 comparison, but it's a sort of balancing element that I could see in this game. So while Adam has been the least visible to me, his role is the one I trust the most, excluding everything else. Because we've got swings in the amount of damage we should be seeing though, I'm more worried about the others. Hopeless's claim, to some extent, checks out based on the damage he and others have claimed. I'd like to stay alive and check his HP in one of the later periods. If we get there, and he tells me his max, I can check to see whether or not he's taken the damage he says he has. We match up the damage he says he's taken against the damage others have claimed that he says he's responsible, and we can somewhat verify his claim. To the extent we can somewhat verify his claim, we can pretty much conclude he's not responsible for ALL the damage that's unaccounted for, because it seems a little too much for him to try and game the math, claim a max hp that works out, have everyone take the damage he claims, etc. So his claim feels more...verifiable, although that relies on him being truthful. Saying he can act every other night allows him to use something else on the other nights, so I need to check and see whether the in-between-vigi nights are the ones where we have KP missing. Then phagga, who claimed to copy random abilities. This is another ability that we could test, but it seems like ALL the abilities are testable at this point, to some extent. Just right off the bat though, this feels like the weakest of the claims to me because of the variety of roles we have. I'd like to hear more about his copy abilities. If kita uses something on phagga, does phagga copy it despite not having MP? If snb attacked phagga, does phagga have to guess someone's name or not (and if he does, then he not only copies abilities but also has the potential to learn the restrictions of any ability used on him, which feels odd)? If phagga is the secondary or tertiary target of flamethrower, does he still get to copy that, since it wasn't used ON him? For GK, he claimed a 150 dmg shot on Drazerk on the night Drazerk claimed 201 damage. That matches up with kita doing 50 and snb claiming 1. Since snb had the power to do 1 damage, I don't think he was lying about that, as otherwise that's a very odd number for us to end up at, and the math works if all claims are true. That, in my mind, clears GK. If he shot Drazerk, then he can't be responsible for the damage that marv took that night. If he shot marv, then we've got KP missing from drazerk. So on claims, I feel like...GK actually comes out towniest? He's got damage but if we try to use his damage to explain missing damage it doesn't work. Phagga looks the worst to me, just because it seems like another one of those "partially true, fakeclaimed, but not thought out fully" claims. Similar to snb's, where he hadn't asked the questions he should have asked. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I still have a hard time believing ANYONE who claims "I'm just an innocent old 3P survivor that's tough to kill, don't mind me" is telling the truth, especially with all the other stuff he made up, but there are bigger concerns now. Kita's claim fills in chrono, who probably shouldn't be missing from CT mafia. It also, to some extent, offers a counterpoint to Toad. If Toad could summon lavos early with party failures, makes some sense to counterbalance that by rewarding town for party successes by boosting Chrono. That dynamic feels good in my head. | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
On December 08 2012 04:25 austinmcc wrote: Then phagga, who claimed to copy random abilities. This is another ability that we could test, but it seems like ALL the abilities are testable at this point, to some extent. Just right off the bat though, this feels like the weakest of the claims to me because of the variety of roles we have. I'd like to hear more about his copy abilities. If kita uses something on phagga, does phagga copy it despite not having MP? If snb attacked phagga, does phagga have to guess someone's name or not (and if he does, then he not only copies abilities but also has the potential to learn the restrictions of any ability used on him, which feels odd)? If phagga is the secondary or tertiary target of flamethrower, does he still get to copy that, since it wasn't used ON him? Perhaps I was unclear about that, so let me say it like this: If only one ability is used on me, I get that very ability to use, and none else. The whole "random" thing only comes into play if more than one ability in the same night is used on me. And even than its only random between all abilities that were used on me that one night. Also, I am always told the targeting requirements. So if I have to guess the rolename correct, i would asume that I am told that, as it is part of the targeting requirement. When I was excited about CJs ability (what was its name? turducken?), I actually asked greymist beforehand if I would get the ability even if I was only target A. He confirmed. That leads me to believe that I will get any skill as long as I am in some way targeted. The only skill I am unsure about right now is Flamethrower, since its user would not target me at all. I'll ask GM what it would do if I was only the secondary target. Keep in mind though, that I have to be the target of another ability if I am also supposed to be the secondary (or tertiary) target of flamethrower, I don't know what you think is not "well thought through" about my claim. If any of you has questions about my claim yet unanswered, ask me, i can ask Greymist if it should indeed be something that I do not already know. finally, keep in mind that I got to use my night ability only once, and that was a simple damaging ability. If I would get to use a more complex ability, i'd sure to ask questoin. Therefore, comparing me with snb is completely wrong, as he claimed to have an ability of which he had no clue what it would do, but still used it without asking questions. | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
On December 07 2012 21:49 Acrofales wrote: GK - was in the tent, all scum tried to get him killed (except risk) could you please elaborate on that? i don't see anything in Toads or Sandros filter that they tried to kill GK, and your spreadsheet does not point to this either. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On December 08 2012 06:03 phagga wrote: could you please elaborate on that? i don't see anything in Toads or Sandros filter that they tried to kill GK, and your spreadsheet does not point to this either. Toad and Sandro no, but both VE and SnB tried pretty hard to kill him. Seems sufficient enough to label GK as town. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
On December 08 2012 06:07 Hapahauli wrote: Toad and Sandro no, but both VE and SnB tried pretty hard to kill him. Seems sufficient enough to label GK as town. VE made a case on him after several other people had made a case on him. That's pretty much the only time he mentions GK. That's hardly "tried pretty hard to kill him", that could as well be a buss. The only one who could qualify for really trying to kill GK is snb, and I agree that this makes GK less likely scum. On December 08 2012 06:29 austinmcc wrote: The fact that GK claims to be responsible for otherwise-unclaimed damage on Drazerk, on a cycle where we have unclaimed damage on a dead townie, makes it very unlikely he's the remaining scum. Ok, so this is what I must have been missing on the whole "GK is almost confirmed town" thing. Thanks. | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
On December 08 2012 04:25 austinmcc wrote: If phagga is the secondary or tertiary target of flamethrower, does he still get to copy that, since it wasn't used ON him? Yes, I have a chance to get flamethrower in that situation, GM confirmed it. | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
I also finally read the excerpt from the tent QT. I get rather town vibes from that. I understand that the latest night actions rather speak for a town GK. I need to sleep over this. I'm really quite confused right now. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Keirathi seems to be getting excluded from the possible scum suspects. I don't think he has earned strong town status, unless I'm forgetting something. Something to consider is that we probably want to start preparing ourselves for the Lavos battle. Shutting down town kp might be a good idea to keep our health up, while relying on only the lynch to find the final 1-2 members. We don't actually have to eliminate all the mafia members to win, although we don't know the mechanics of how we're going to kill Lavos. Trading 3 to 1 with mafia at this point in the game might not be the most efficient. I'll look through the remaining players tonight. For the players in the risk qt, was there anything worthwhile now that he has flipped? On December 07 2012 23:58 Acrofales wrote: The lack of a sandwich also makes no sense unless someone roleblocked him tonight. Kita, did you RB Drazerk? Ya sorry, didn't put two and two together when you first mentioned it. On December 08 2012 02:20 syllogism wrote: Kitaman I would like you to explain your role a bit more. I would particularly like to know how much mp you have available on average and how much you gain every cycle. What is your max mp? What did you do last cycle? My max is 200. I gain 10 per night and 20 from level ups. Last night I shot Cave for 100 + roleblocked him. On December 08 2012 04:33 austinmcc wrote: I still have a hard time believing ANYONE who claims "I'm just an innocent old 3P survivor that's tough to kill, don't mind me" is telling the truth, especially with all the other stuff he made up, but there are bigger concerns now. ^^ | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
What was the bullshit wall of text you just posted? You want to get lynched? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 08 2012 09:10 Oatsmaster wrote: ##Vote: Austinmcc What was the bullshit wall of text you just posted? You want to get lynched? Actually, no. I'd prefer not to. That's me looking at a short list of options and trying to figure out who's the remaining scum. We've got missing KP. Almost all the remaining options have it. But some don't fit the bill. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
Adam and Hope are both town reads for me. I've mind fucked myself a million times over with Hapa. So that leaves Phagga and Austin. Pretty good for a wall of text. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
Who is it that you think is scum based on their play? Or what you remember of it. Please make a case on someone based around play instead of role. Thanks. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 08 2012 09:18 Promethelax wrote: Austin: can you comment on Phagga defense please. Who is it that you think is scum based on their play? Or what you remember of it. Please make a case on someone based around play instead of role. Thanks. Working on that. Was dealing with another lynch, had some time to spare and got that part of things down. | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
He bascially commentates the actions used. Thats it. I would expect more effort trying not to get mislynched. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
Austin: I expect it to be excellent when I come home from work. | ||
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