EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXX - Page 82
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Obzy
United States525 Posts
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da0ud
Hong Kong252 Posts
Let think know at the best action plans for our JK and Cop to find for sure who is the last scum buddy | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
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Obzy
United States525 Posts
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
It's not possible because we don't know for sure what role could be the last scum. If it is a roleblocker, I guess I'm going to be blocked while the NK is going to be send to me or another player (most likely Alsn). I think the best way for us is to play in the open and announcepublicly our targets. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
You can be sure that I am going to target sylverfyre  | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 07 2012 12:08 Rad wrote: @djo If clarity claims blue, I'd have to reconsider my current read on him. There was a point that I thought he might be blue, very briefly during the cheese incident, but I'm pretty convinced he's VT or scum now (obviously leaning hard towards VT). <snip> @ Rad Y u no reconsidered ? I understand that you are a stubborn guy but there should have been a limit to the confidence you had in the town read you were having on Clarity. Why did you not comment the post I've indicated you again which were consisting in the best proofs against Clarity ? | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 07 2012 12:58 Rad wrote: @djo My trust in him is based on how similarly we seem to be thinking. You'd have to be a VT in this game to understand, I think. Surely anyone who is a VT this game had cheese's same thoughts rush through their mind when they noticed the lack of flavor text. We'd be like this little secret society, you see, that only we'd know about. Perhaps if we were just more experienced at the game we'd know this would be too OP, but we're newbies, and the idea was delicious. Cheese had the thought and ran with it, explained it to debears, debears *high fived* cheese over it, and although I had that same thought at one point in the game, I PM'd the host as soon as cheese dropped the claim the first time. By the time they were high-fiving, I had already gotten back a response, and had been brewing over why a town would be claiming right now. Was he just a VT being wreckless, or a scum trying to get people to claim? Why claim at that point when there's no reason to? Wtf? There's absolutely no reason to claim right then. Is a scum cheese trying to pull some crazy shit? That's what first went through my mind, but i realized that no, there's no fucking way a scum would do this right now, trading scum life for possible (not even guaranteed) information is a terrible trade. I can see how clarity wouldn't have necessarily come to this conclusion though, so he kept his vote on cheese. You need to look at clarity's reactions to cheese during that incident. They don't push blame, they're looking for all the appropriate answers, and everything he did (except not switching to debears) mirrored my own thoughts during the the scenario. Does that mean he's necessarily VT? Nah, but I was right about cheese and debears, and I think I'm right about clarity. Djo, if he flips red, I fully expect to be lynched. But, do you think that's a good scum move to put myself out there so much? Do you think it's a good scum move to constantly defend him against your attacks if we're a scum team? @ sylvefyre Could you also elaborate on what was going on your mind during the Cheese incident ? I would like you to explain to us what was going on in your head when you saw the claim, in a similar fashion Of course, I'm assuming that you are VT here, I'll give you some slack ^^ | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 05 2012 08:21 Rad wrote: Please excuse my silence. I'm considering Mr. Cheesecake atm. Why did you say this ? I have my idea but I would like you to tell it first | ||
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Obzy
United States525 Posts
5 town, 1 scum Djo and Alsn are confirmed[or as good as confirmed] JK and cop each person knows that they are VT or scum, I know I'm VT so I will use myself as the example. Scum can just ignore this post xD 3 confirmed town (I am confirmed to myself) vs 1 scum - Other town will be T1 and T2. ...actually this is way too long lol there's a lot of possibilities and lots of if's it basically comes down to, I don't think there is an optimal strategy. I'll post some thoughts: Djo JKs Sylv, Alsn checks Sylv, comes back scum and DJo dies because Sylv was scum RB. He's not confirmed though - if Rad was framer and framed Sylv and killed Djo, the checks mean nothing. Same goes if the opposite. So stacking on a potential frame target isn't really worth it, it doesn't confirm anything. If Djo JKs the framer, he can't frame or kill anybody, so Alsn's check (if it is on a different target) will come back town. If it comes back scum, it either means scum held KP to get a mischeck, or he landed the check properly - in this case, I think that we can all vote for a No-Lynch and repeat the process until Alsn gets town checks and slowly confirms every member (this is under the assumption that KP is being held). In short, if scum holds KP, we should not vote and we will win without issue. Obviously, if somebody votes and stays on a target, that person is scum, and we lynch them one day afterwards to ascertain that they were not just a townie playing poorly. (We will win even if a mislynch occurs. KP being held just gives us more checks, and it's not possible for a town-cop-check return to mean scum hiding anymore - if it shows town, then they ARE town.) So scum holding KP doesn't work, the game could just be stalled out forever >.> Under that assumption, if there is no kill, then the JK target is the scum. If Alsn gets no check back and no kill occurs, it means that the JK target was not scum and was holding KP. So - if JK target roleblocks Djo, he can kill either Alsn or Djo without repercussions - really, there's nothing we can do about this. If Djo targets the wrong person, he can roleblock Alsn and kill anybody without repercussions as well. Blah blah blah ^^ This is incredibly long and the possibilities are vast. My summary - I think we should stick to our reads and not worry about optimal blue-usage strategy, but if there is no kill, we can discuss it then. If there is no kill and Alsn is roleblocked, it means JK was targetting the wrong person (I think. If JK jails Roleblocker, can the scum RB still RB?) and scum held KP. If there is no kill and Alsn can get a town check, we can repeat this indefinitely - so scum should just give up >.> The game would take forever but inevitably end in our victory and would be a tremendous pain so it'd be nice if under those circumstances scum just conceded defeat. There are too many possibilities to actually pick out an optimal scenario. I am in favor of (currently) lynching Sylv, then Rad. If scum is da0ud under those circumstances, we lose. If not, we win. If Alsn manages to get a town check on one of those three (or myself I guess, approaching it from a different angle,) then we will win for certain. As a result I expect Alsn to die tonight, unless scum is framer and Djo roleblocks him properly. Too many possibilities, Blues should just do what they think is best and state what they did before the night ends, but I intend to vote Sylv > Rad lol. if scum is da0ud, hopefully Alsn is able to confirm one of the three as town, but if a scum result is returned, it is not indicative of anything, due to how many possibilities there are lol. o_O Suuuuuper complicated not knowing if we have a RB or a framer so they must, as a result, be both. I don't think there's an enormous amount that we can discuss about it haha :X Just trust our blues. It would be best to continue in the way we have been IMO :0 If anybody has a magical solution to how blues should be best optimized, then we should, of course, do it but I don't see one.(sheesh this post is super long and kinda pointless in the end) | ||
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Obzy
United States525 Posts
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 08 2012 11:23 Obzy wrote: + Show Spoiler + Base assumptions: 5 town, 1 scum Djo and Alsn are confirmed[or as good as confirmed] JK and cop each person knows that they are VT or scum, I know I'm VT so I will use myself as the example. Scum can just ignore this post xD 3 confirmed town (I am confirmed to myself) vs 1 scum - Other town will be T1 and T2. ...actually this is way too long lol there's a lot of possibilities and lots of if's it basically comes down to, I don't think there is an optimal strategy. I'll post some thoughts: Djo JKs Sylv, Alsn checks Sylv, comes back scum and DJo dies because Sylv was scum RB. He's not confirmed though - if Rad was framer and framed Sylv and killed Djo, the checks mean nothing. Same goes if the opposite. So stacking on a potential frame target isn't really worth it, it doesn't confirm anything. If Djo JKs the framer, he can't frame or kill anybody, so Alsn's check (if it is on a different target) will come back town. If it comes back scum, it either means scum held KP to get a mischeck, or he landed the check properly - in this case, I think that we can all vote for a No-Lynch and repeat the process until Alsn gets town checks and slowly confirms every member (this is under the assumption that KP is being held). In short, if scum holds KP, we should not vote and we will win without issue. Obviously, if somebody votes and stays on a target, that person is scum, and we lynch them one day afterwards to ascertain that they were not just a townie playing poorly. (We will win even if a mislynch occurs. KP being held just gives us more checks, and it's not possible for a town-cop-check return to mean scum hiding anymore - if it shows town, then they ARE town.) So scum holding KP doesn't work, the game could just be stalled out forever >.> Under that assumption, if there is no kill, then the JK target is the scum. If Alsn gets no check back and no kill occurs, it means that the JK target was not scum and was holding KP. So - if JK target roleblocks Djo, he can kill either Alsn or Djo without repercussions - really, there's nothing we can do about this. If Djo targets the wrong person, he can roleblock Alsn and kill anybody without repercussions as well. Blah blah blah ^^ This is incredibly long and the possibilities are vast. My summary - I think we should stick to our reads and not worry about optimal blue-usage strategy, but if there is no kill, we can discuss it then. If there is no kill and Alsn is roleblocked, it means JK was targetting the wrong person (I think. If JK jails Roleblocker, can the scum RB still RB?) and scum held KP. If there is no kill and Alsn can get a town check, we can repeat this indefinitely - so scum should just give up >.> The game would take forever but inevitably end in our victory and would be a tremendous pain so it'd be nice if under those circumstances scum just conceded defeat. There are too many possibilities to actually pick out an optimal scenario. I am in favor of (currently) lynching Sylv, then Rad. If scum is da0ud under those circumstances, we lose. If not, we win. If Alsn manages to get a town check on one of those three (or myself I guess, approaching it from a different angle,) then we will win for certain. As a result I expect Alsn to die tonight, unless scum is framer and Djo roleblocks him properly. + Show Spoiler + Too many possibilities, Blues should just do what they think is best and state what they did before the night ends, but I intend to vote Sylv > Rad lol. if scum is da0ud, hopefully Alsn is able to confirm one of the three as town, but if a scum result is returned, it is not indicative of anything, due to how many possibilities there are lol. o_O Suuuuuper complicated not knowing if we have a RB or a framer so they must, as a result, be both. I don't think there's an enormous amount that we can discuss about it haha :X Just trust our blues. It would be best to continue in the way we have been IMO :0 If anybody has a magical solution to how blues should be best optimized, then we should, of course, do it but I don't see one.(sheesh this post is super long and kinda pointless in the end) I'm also expecting Alsn to die tonight, he is the most dangerous guy for the remaining mafia right now. If it doesn't die, the probability that I have successfully jailed a framer or a goon is high but there is also a slight possibility for the mafia to have not sent the NK on purpose. I'm going to target sylver and Alsn should keep his target for himself. Let's discuss tomorrow about the conclusions we can make from a no-death night if nobody dies if nobody dies. We can think about it but not waste too much time on it. In my opinion, the fact that the scum has not given up yet means that he is roleblocker, but I might be wrong In the meantime, we should go back to good old scumhunting. I have a very good case against sylver in my mind so I'm going to prepare it and post it when I can. I'm also going to post why I think daoud and Obzy are town. I don't want to look into Rad so I hope that someone else is going to take care of that for me. | ||
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Rad
United States935 Posts
On November 08 2012 11:08 Djodref wrote: @ Rad Y u no reconsidered ? I understand that you are a stubborn guy but there should have been a limit to the confidence you had in the town read you were having on Clarity. Why did you not comment the post I've indicated you again which were consisting in the best proofs against Clarity ? I did reconsider. I had to throw out all my thoughts about him being VT, but like I said, there was a moment during the cheese chaos that I thought he might be blue. Also, scum clarity NOT at least attempting to ride on my VT story didn't make sense to me. The cop claim was like... what, why would he do that? Is he really cop? So, I held a little hope that he would flip blue and was spending my time thinking about who was the scum if he did (was thinking you and obzy). | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 08 2012 11:50 Rad wrote: I did reconsider. I had to throw out all my thoughts about him being VT, but like I said, there was a moment during the cheese chaos that I thought he might be blue. Also, scum clarity NOT at least attempting to ride on my VT story didn't make sense to me. The cop claim was like... what, why would he do that? Is he really cop? So, I held a little hope that he would flip blue and was spending my time thinking about who was the scum if he did (was thinking you and obzy). @ Rad And why would you want to believe in his claim ? The counter claim from Alsn, the amount of evidence against Clarity and the fact that he has went AWOL like all caught mafia players do should have been enough to kill any hope that you could foster for a town Clarity. Why did you choose to waste your time on an improbable scenario ? | ||
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Rad
United States935 Posts
On November 08 2012 11:21 Djodref wrote: @ Rad Why did you say this ? I have my idea but I would like you to tell it first When cheese first claimed Regular Fapper, I kinda freaked. First thoughts were "oh shit someone else realized that the flavor isn't in the OP, is cheese a VT?" but then I started thinking "wait why is he being so blantently obvious about this? Did I miss something? is this common knowledge?" So I checked the OP a few more times and then PM'd the host this question: 11/5 07:08 "Hey, quick question. Did you post the role flavor names anywhere? For example, is the fact that a vanilla townie in this game is called regular fapper mentioned anywhere public? Or do we vanilla townies only know that information right now?" I got a reply back that I didn't quite understand. I PM'd again: 11/5 07:29 "Sorry I'm not following you. Is there anyone in the game other than Regular Fappers that would know for sure that the role of Regular Fapper exists? Since it's not listed publicly, seems like that would be information only a regular fapper would know?" Again, didn't understand marv's reply. So I said: 11/5 07:40 "My reading comprehension must be broken. Are you saying that you sent the term Regular Fapper to other people besides Regular Fappers? Like, to blues and/or scum?" So with that I finally understood. Now I'm pacing around trying to figure out why cheese would have so blatantly claimed. See, before this, I thought it might at some point become a possibility to secretly talk to each other, but didn't think it was a great idea to just post it straight up "Regular fapper!" That seemed sketchy, like a scum would then think "wtf is this guy talking about? oh, fapper, hmm, I wonder if that's what a VT is? seems to fit the flavor..." so I was confused at why cheese was being so open with the term. At that point, I realized that something seemed weird about cheese: On November 05 2012 08:21 Rad wrote: Please excuse my silence. I'm considering Mr. Cheesecake atm. Pretty soon after he spells it out for debears. My response: On November 05 2012 08:31 Rad wrote: Cheese, I've realized you were claiming that, but WHY? What's your motivation to do that at this point in the game? I'm focused on motivation here because super secret card or not, if a bunch of us are suddenly like "Regular fapper power!" (like cheese and debears were doing basically) then scum WILL eventually figure it out. Also notice I say "claiming that" because at that point I'm still trying to be as cautious as I can without straight up saying it, and trying to get the point across to them that they probably shouldn't be talking about this (if I say "hey guys, uhh, everyone in the game knows about the VT text" it straight up outs them, which I'm afraid of doing at his point). Clarity then spells it out, and I'm thinking "ok, well, that's as spelled out as it can get" so my next attempt is to get them to shut up before more VTs come out. On November 05 2012 08:35 Rad wrote: Cheese, why would you claim VT this early? Why would you confirm clarity as VT? You realize if you're right, you're dropping blue targets for mafia NK. On November 05 2012 08:39 Rad wrote: @debears are you suggesting the scum are retarded? How would they have not noticed? I didn't want to bring it up at all once I noticed his claim, and it immediately made me suspicious of him, but everyone suddenly went all stupid so I wanted to put an end to it. No one should be claiming shit right now! Throughout this I'm trying to look as blue as possible (at least that was my intention, not sure if I did). I had hoped at this point that I could paint myself as a NK target since cheese was clear VT to me and debears was possible VT (he became more clear to me at the part with sylver). Also, I was thinking clarity was VT too. So that's 3 VTs and I'm like "shit blue hunting is going to be easy for scum". This is why I laughed at the debears NK, because I thought for sure the scum would have read him as VT. I'll be curious if they realized that and just wanted him dead because they're scared of his potential scum hunting, or if they just didn't get it (might be kinda hard to get if you weren't a VT this game). I didn't think by any means he was anyone's top town read (tbh wasn't I most people's top town read at that point?), so I thought the NK of him was hilarious. | ||
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Rad
United States935 Posts
On November 08 2012 11:57 Djodref wrote: @ Rad And why would you want to believe in his claim ? The counter claim from Alsn, the amount of evidence against Clarity and the fact that he has went AWOL like all caught mafia players do should have been enough to kill any hope that you could foster for a town Clarity. Why did you choose to waste your time on an improbable scenario ? Because I thought he was town? And you pissed me off yesterday. I liked the story of "clarity turns out blue, djo scum, rad wins" better than "clarity turns out scum, djo thinks his confirmation biased arguments were right after all, rad is sad  "Also, clarity was clearly going to be lynched. Not much else to talk about there. May as well entertain some other interesting scenarios, some what-ifs, cause that's fun to me and I can get people's thoughts in the meantime (maybe read into them somehow). It's cool getting yelled at for doing that. <3 Fun game, I guess. | ||
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sylverfyre
United States8298 Posts
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
@ sylvefyre What did you mean by "pseudo-claim" when talking about Clarity post in response of Cheese claim ? | ||
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Rad
United States935 Posts
On November 05 2012 09:59 Rad wrote: surprised sylver did not switch to debears when he had a chance On November 05 2012 10:00 sylverfyre wrote: Where was my chance? O.o On November 05 2012 10:00 debears wrote: Just now... On November 05 2012 10:01 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: Debears right there (that's cheese switching back, but you had already had the chance to jump to your biggest scum read - debears - before that) | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 08 2012 12:32 Rad wrote: Because I thought he was town? And you pissed me off yesterday. I liked the story of "clarity turns out blue, djo scum, rad wins" better than "clarity turns out scum, djo thinks his confirmation biased arguments were right after all, rad is sad "Also, clarity was clearly going to be lynched. Not much else to talk about there. May as well entertain some other interesting scenarios, some what-ifs, cause that's fun to me and I can get people's thoughts in the meantime (maybe read into them somehow). It's cool getting yelled at for doing that. <3 Fun game, I guess. @ Rad You don't know how much pissed off I was at you yesterday. I was literally raging when you accused me of blue hunting. My claim was totally emotional, I did it because I wanted you and sylvefyre to STFU about this nonsense. My analysis of Clarity behavior in his interactions with me and with Cheese was clearly showing good signs of mafia. I still don't understand how you could bashed these arguments. Especially the one where I show you that Clarity avoided discussion with me I think you were the one suffering from confirmation bias, not me  | ||
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