Under the assumption that this doesn't start tomorrow If it starts tomorrow I may need to be modkilled despite the OP saying that that should never ever happen
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Acrofales
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Under the assumption that this doesn't start tomorrow If it starts tomorrow I may need to be modkilled despite the OP saying that that should never ever happen | ||
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Btw, due to the delay between thread going up and starting, I am back in Brazil and a completely normal schedule. I promise commitment, dedication and fun! | ||
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Firstly, millers should claim, masons should not. There is currently NO reason to claim mason and it is an easy claim to make if you or your partner runs into trouble, or it's lylo. However, masons SHOULD make a very subtle breadcrumb (note the subtle, I don't even want to whiff it if it exists). Then notify your mason buddy about how it's done. If mafia/sk inadvertently offs one of the masons, the other one has some decent evidence to back his claim up. Millers should claim, so that people can't claim miller after DT checks come back red (we still have a potential framer to deal with, but that can be dealt with IF we get red checks). Mafia, feel free to claim miller as well. Claiming miller does not automatically exculpate you: it is only there to remove the "but wait guys, i'm a miller"-excuse out of the equation. For the record, I am NOT a miller. Now, on to the suspicions and stuff. I have no clue what to make of kush's derping and release's suspicions, so for the moment I will simply make nothing of it and sit here and observe how this game goes. However, I do see a lot of people I don't know. So how about a round of introductions. I'll start. I am Acro. I am awesome. Some games: Moderately representative town game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=343892 Scum game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344514 Please everybody, do the same sorta thing. Makes crossreferencing your playstyle a bit easier than having to delve through your profile. | ||
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My main problem with Release is this post: On November 01 2012 10:09 Release wrote: well, you were assigning Mason traits to the miller, which led to the confusion that it did between who should claim. Also, you didn't mention mason but the "town who can talk to each other." You avoided saying mason. Mason is clear. "town who can talk to each other" could be mason, but could be miller if someone assumed you were talking about who YOU thought "could talk to each other." Mafia is a game in which posts can't be editted. People tend to check their posts for any dubious or tentative information. I highly doubt that you "mixed up" their names because things like that tend to get checked, which leads me to believe you said such things on purpose. I wasn't talking about the mass claim. That was rather obvious. This is pathetic and reaks of scum. While I was willing to write off his first post as one derp of accusing another derp, this one just seems malevolent. He is trying to paint a scum reason for making a mistake and dreaming up wild unprovable theories in the process. This is not a town move. It's an easy way for scum to (try to) get a mislynch bandwagon going. Nevertheless, it's a terrible scumplay. Holding off on my vote to see where this goes. Zealos is being Zealos. I have nothing much to say about him yet. | ||
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On November 01 2012 10:25 Release wrote: I will state now that i think Meta-Analysis (which Hapaluchi loves) is very weak to useless. ________________________________________________ @Mattchew: Skewing his words how? He was asking for the mason to claim in his posts while calling it the miller. Then he goes and says the town who could talk to each other, but avoid saying mason. This gives him the chance to say "I meant the miller" if the mason claims. Meta is far from useless. It's not easy to use, though, and therefore often used wrong. However, it is very powerful when used right. So in that light, please let us know a bit more about yourself. Do you have previous games on this forum? No. Kush was quite obviously confusing Millers with Masons. He said Miller, but described Mason. In his later post he clarified (when thrawn pointed out that he seemed to be confusing the two) and added "Masons should claim" as his own idea... kinda on the same line as mass claiming. Is it a good idea? No. Is it potentially fishing for blues? Yes. Is it inherently scummy? No. In fact, as scum I tend to pay MORE attention to details, so I am inclined to write weird derps like this off as more likely to be made by town. However, this is a meta-call which does not work for everybody. | ||
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On November 01 2012 10:49 Hopeless1der wrote: Acro, I just want to confirm that you think Kush derped (i.e. is probably town) and that Release might have derped but it was very scummy and you'd lean towards him being scum. Is that correct? That is correct. @Release: I could vote for you, but there's no point yet. Why the rush with over 40 hours left in D1? As I said at the top of that post: I don't like your followup and can easily read a scum motive into it. However, it's D1 and tunneling on one player is not the way I like to play D1 (it leads to a mislynch 90% of the time). | ||
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On November 01 2012 10:54 Mattchew wrote: can you expand and explain this to me like im 5 Zealos has the rather horrid quality of a scummy meta as town (although I have been away from TL Mafia for a while, so maybe he's improved). That allows him to slide by as scum, but also causes him to get mislynched early in the game as town. However, I find him easier to get a bead on later in the game (somewhat similar to bluelightz). I don't see anything inherently wrong with Zealos first posts. It's setup discussion, but we were about 5 minutes into the game. | ||
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On November 01 2012 09:09 Zealos wrote: I highly doubt a mafia would get so aggressive right off the bat imo. Just seems like dumb reasoning, is all. I read this as Zealos making a judgement call about Release: he highly doubts that this act is a scumplay as it is badly timed agression from a scum point of view. I don't think this is Zealos saying that aggression is a town trait, however I don't claim to have insight knowledge about what Zealos was thinking when he made that post. Imho it contains too little information to make a read on. | ||
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On November 01 2012 11:20 Release wrote: Do not use this post later to claim that i am shifting attention off myself. I acknowledge that I am under suspicion. So in the flurry of comment regarding the claiming, we seem to have dismissed the possibility of enacting a Lynch-all-liars policy. The main con i see if we do enact it is that we can't pull use fishing for reactions as freely. The main pro, however, is that people can't claim to be fishing for reactions. Another consequence is that more information is in the thread. Both town and mafia know more about true intentions and can react accordingly. Personally, i am against such a policy because people can very easily say "i changed my mind" and blame/vindication will tend to be imposed base on a town/scum flip. Why bring up a policy you don't agree with yourself? In fact, why bring up a policy that in a previous game you described as: On June 25 2012 11:20 Release wrote: ##vote Hopeless1der I think Mafia is a very intricate game, and to say Lynch those who do not tell the truth is retarded. <snip> Can you explain why you thought bringing up this policy is now a good idea? | ||
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Can you explain your thoughts behind bringing up this policy which you evidently don't agree with yourself? | ||
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Tkkzteg, lo gpwwqi mjarnknlrfvaf mtagn nwfwx. Cwyvnwds, ir ugm kilkmsdttb ryajn ig lbxv rgtk tazwao. | ||
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Lets do this. ##vote Muso PS. Don't worry your pretty little head about the above post. Fairly certain we will need that info by the end of D1 anyway, but I know enough about encryption to say: don't bother trying to decrypt it. | ||
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On November 02 2012 00:20 thrawn2112 wrote: if i don't see anyone claiming to be muso's mason buddy i'm definitely going to vote muso but same might be true for Acrofales does anyone care to explain to me why acrofales' claim is more believable than muso's? What possible reason do scum have to COUNTER claim a mason claim? It is pants-on-head retarded. I am guessing that scum decided to hatch a plot to become confirmed town, betting that there wouldn't be any town masons (not too big a risk in the given setup). But that bet went horribly wrong. | ||
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On November 02 2012 00:35 prplhz wrote: Acrofales, why did you decide that you and not your mason buddy should claim? I mean, I remember you owning up all scum in Holy Roman Mafia, why did you decide that it's a better idea to paint a target on your head rather than your mate's? Pretty much that reason. I am not expecting to live too long, given the low number of veterans this game. I can't hide behind anybody, so would probably make a good target N1 in any case. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler [probability calculation] + To get two mason pairs you need to get 5 Ms in 7 "throws". Each M has a 1/10 probability of being "thrown". So each There are 2 over 5 ways of throwing 5 Ms in 7 throws, so 21 possible sequences. Each sequence has a probability of (1/10)^5*(9/10)^2 Total probability: (1/10)^5*(9/10)^2*21 = 0.017% The rest of Muso's filter is about how he is bad and lied to get into the game, which tells me nothing except he is rather apologetic. | ||
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Before that point, did you think mason+miller was simply a role all wrapped into one? And if not, who did you think was being called out to roleclaim: "town members who could talk to each other", or "people who would show red to alignment cops"? | ||
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On November 02 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote: Acro, did you breadcrumb your mason role in your opening post? In that very opening post, you clearly state that you think masons should breadcrumb. No. Making a good breadcrumb is hard and we didn't think there was much rush. If I had made a breadcrumb, I wouldn't have had to bother with that encrypted post either, would I? | ||
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A miller is someone who mills. The wind/water mill was usually located outside, or on the outskirts of town. A favourite story setpiece is that the miller is suspected by the townfolk, because he is different: he lives outside the town and keeps to himself. However, he always turns out to be innocent (and maybe even saves the day). Hence the ingame role. A mason is short for a member of the freemason society. A rather secretive group of people who organize secret meetings. I don't know enough about them, but they are generally highly connected between each other. Hence their ingame role. Oh, and Release hasn't appeared yet either to chip in about Muso's epicly failed gambit. | ||
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The rest of the thread can wait til tomorrow when I am no longer drunk. | ||
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Reasons it seems okay from a town point of view: 1. He has no clue how mafia on TL works. On other sites it may be more normal to play loose and fast with the truth. 2. The reason for scum to roleclaim at this point is similarly stretching it. Reasons I want to lynch Muso on the spot: 1. He gives no accountability whatsoever. As opposed to my own reveal (below). There is no possible way of differentiating between a crappy town gambit and a crappy scum gambit. Honestly, if this works on whatever forum Muso is used to playing on, I want to play scum there, as I will have a fucking field day. 2. If at lylo we are still stuck with his gambit we are screwed. Better to just get rid of him. Now onto the main body of my post: I lied. I'm not a mason. I am Jessica Rabbit, though. Here is the decryption key for my post: spoiler=key] Encryption method: one-time pad Decryption key: What's up doc? That is all folks. What's up doc? That is all folks. What's up doc? That is all folks. What's up doc? That is all folks. Plug the code and key into this website: http://rumkin.com/tools/cipher/otp.php [/spoiler] Now why did I do this and what did we get out of it? 1. I didn't trust Musa's claim at all and didn't want to let him run around with that claim for free. Sure, there could be an actual mason team out there, but they hadn't counterclaimed, so I thought there was a good chance that either Musa made a bad claim as town, or he was scum taking a risk. I wanted to know what it was. 2. The thread is seriously lacking and it's D1. Having a setpiece for talking about and shaking up discussion is good, see point 3. 3. I wanted to gauge people's reactions. If Musa IS a town mason, then scum in particular should be very surprised to find a second mason team claiming. My findings 1. As said above, I will make proper sense of the Muso situation above. For the moment I still consider him the most likely candidate, because my judgement isn't completely capable at the moment and I want to think this shit through when sober. The main reason I don't just consider his wacko claim a scum claim is because through my own gambit I feel a viable alternative popped up: see point two. 2. However, there is a VERY good alternative: prplhz is scum. I had a marginal scumread on him based on a post before I fake claimed. I particularly didn't like him dishing out town reads in a slapdash fashion. However, the main tell is his initial reaction to the mason claim. A "normal" town reaction was exhibited by most other players saying "one of the two is scum", based on the incredibly low probability of there being 2 mason teams. Instead, prplhz's reaction was "there are 2 mason teams". This smells of a player who has more information available to him, namely, that neither Acro nor Muso are scum, and therefore there MUST be two mason teams, because townies don't lie. Given some time he realized that townies can do statistics and were ignoring his helping hand, so he jumped on the easy bandwagon. ##unvote | ||
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##vote prplhz | ||
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On November 02 2012 20:17 drazak wrote: I'm just... I'm gonna go fine a corner to cry in, this game. 2 town fake claims on day one that are already admitted fake claims? fucking serious? Not sure what to make of all of it I suggest to just read the thread and do some traditional behavioural analysis. I like my vote on prplhz (sorry Promethelax, your predecssor said some stuff that I cannot jibe with town). @Kushm4sta: you're not thinking straight. Also, blame Bugs for my rolename. | ||
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On November 02 2012 20:43 risk.nuke wrote: Nofucking body claims a role and then says lol I was just kidding. I wasn't kidding. The reason for roleclaiming was in the encrypted post beforehand. I whiffed a dodgy roleclaim and thought it could be scum getting away scotfree with a mason claim, which would make him "confirmed" in the eyes of too many people. I have to say, I was not expecting a town excuse for fakeclaiming mason. My post on Muso is coming up (as is a more comprehensive post on prplhz). | ||
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One thing I think should be clear from this, and that is that this play was NOT a noobscum play. Well, either that, or his scumbuddy just completely took over in the second half of D1 and told him what to say and how to say it, which I don't think happened. That leaves Muso as an experienced town player, OR an experienced scum player. In either case the gambit is somewhat explainable and I don't have enough information about the rest of his playstyle to decide which, so I will just lay them both out here: The case for Muso Claims noob mason, knowing that a counterclaim is possible. If there is no counterclaim he gets his free ride on town thinking he's a power role. He also gets to play as if he has talked things over for his partner and is "mouth" for his partner. This can be a very powerful ploy if used well and could keep town running in circles all game. Unfortunately for him, he was counterclaimed. Phase 2 of the plan is needed: claim there is no reason for scum to claim mason (which there clearly is, see above) and that he is actually a VT claiming to "protect" the town power roles. An experienced/smart player could have seen this contingency in advance and thought of this backup. The case for Muso Has been made by Muso himself. The scenario where Muso is mafia is a high risk for not all that high a reward. It puts him in the spotlight and has a large chance of backfiring. It is a stupid play. Muso is not playing like he's stupid. At least, not since the first 24 hours of D1. The reason for claiming as town is not stupid. It's just a bit naive, but a good idea at the core. Some other stuff: On November 02 2012 13:30 Muso wrote: Reasoning for my claim: <snip> 2. The wealth of information and reads that are available from this train is enormous. I doubt anybody will disagree with the idea that we've gained a lot more information from today than we would have had we led a lynch on somebody based upon the minor scum hunting that occurred in the first half of today. Not to say that that stuff isn't valuable, just that this provides more definitive answers. Even if nobody is satisfied with my explanations and this does go through to a lynch, this point will remain true. The true Mason reveal was regrettable and once again I do take the blame for that. I don't like this part of the post. If the aim was for the mason claim to go by quietly in the first place, it would NOT generate discussion and thus this could NOT have been the reason for claiming initially, as this post claims. He indicates that the "masons" (in this case my calling his bullshit) played badly by outing his claim, but if the claim had not been countered than this "gambit" would not have generated any discussion at all. This is POST-hoc reasoning about why the claim was good, which sets my spider senses of: he is fabricating the reasons for claiming afterwards, rather than thinking back to when he claimed and what his reasons for claiming were THEN. Secondly, he refers to this "wealth of information", but he never makes a case on anybody (except for rehashing my case on prplhz in more words) nor really says anything about his reads based on this wealth of information. It is quite a classical scum tell to make this kind of assertion, where you refer to past actions as if they have greatly benefited town, without actually benefiting town. In this case, however, it may have been complicated by my coming clean too: if he was planning on using that information to make a case, it got kinda blown away by my outing my fakeclaim too, and he DID flesh out my case on prplhz. So, is Muso scum? I am not sure at this point. I am quite a bit surer of prplhz and I will do his case next. | ||
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What initially made my scumdar ping was this passage: On November 01 2012 20:33 prplhz wrote: I don't know about this Release thing. Calling people scum on page 1 for a dumb reason is generally not something scum would feel like they had to do. There are plenty of other people around but I don't have time right now. Actually I'm going to be busy for most of this game which will suck because my activity is a clear indicator of my alignment (even if people don't use it because they're lazy *cough* thrawn2112 *cough* kushm4sta *cough* Hopeless1der *cough*). Right now I'm reading town on Mattchew, Muso and kind of town on Release and kushm4sta. I'll read the thread harder later today. He pre-excuses his lack of activity (although now that he was replaced we can safely assume this was not a ploy, but a simple headsup: it still got my attention at the time, though) and chums up to quite a number of players for no good reason: he indicates that thrown2112, kushm4sta and Hopeless1der should see him as town. He further chums up with Mattchew, Muso and Release by calling them town, when the game is about 12 hours old. I personally didn't have a town read yet on anybody and found this passage decidedly strange. However, prplhz slipped badly in the claiming ordeal, which I explained earlier and Muso fleshed out in sufficient detail. Note that this case ONLY works if Muso is in fact town. If Muso is scum, then prplhz has no reason to be so surprised. So the question is what case you think is better on its own. A compounding problem is that prplhz will not be around to explain himself and Promethelax cannot explain it, obviously. Also, gonna bring in the meta-lynch-all-replacements rule: it is more likely to replace scum in this manner than to replace town. I don't like using moderator actions to hunt scum, but it is something that is a simple truth. Losing a townie to inactivity is not the end of the world. Losing scum in a similar manner is extremely bad for the game. | ||
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Out of Kush and prplhz, against who the main body of the case is similar, I feel prplhz has shown more dodgy behaviour. At least kush's switch came after the majority of the thread had weighed in and said they weren't Muso's mason partner: prplhz did his 180 (thanks for that reminder in your filter, risk) with only my statistics to persuade him in the meantime. I don't feel particularly happy pushing for a lynch on someone who has just subbed in, but the worst thing possible is a no-lynch today: we need that flip information. PS: if the aim is to get information from a lynch, Muso will give info if he flips town (namely, a stronger case against prplhz and kush), whereas prplhz and kush are dudds if they flip town, so that is a point in favour of killing Muso. However, I feel prplhz is FAR more likely to flip scum at this point and killing scum is my goal. Re-voting for emphasis: ##vote Promethelax | ||
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On November 02 2012 23:12 Zealos wrote: Which apparently we can't get, due to a replacement. That's a bummer:/ I guess the best bet for finding if he is scum is trying to work out whether Muso is telling us the truth or not. Muso, what do you make of prplhz/Prom? I can answer this one. He wanted to lynch prplhz, but wants to give Promethelax some time to chip in: On November 02 2012 15:19 Muso wrote: Okay I am beginning to see that Lynch All Liars is the dominant philosophy around here. I am sure many of you are very good players but there must seemingly be some very bad players around this site too, because how else could it possibly ever be a conceivable strategy for scum to claim mason on D1? It would make zero sense to anybody, ever. If you were mason and you knew this, and you knew that I within a 99% chance of certainty was also not a mason, then the conclusion you would draw would be that I was town. If however, the policy is to kill anybody who lies at the expense of all other logic then I get why I would be counter-claimed. That was my thought process going in to the mason claim. I'm not trying to absolve myself of guilt. But do keep in mind that if Acro is telling the truth and is not a mason, then had he not counter-claimed me on a hunch the situation here would be quite different. If there are masons out there, then I guess they did exactly as I predicted they would?? Anyway, enough of that. The post Acro is talking about is this one: This is quite interesting. This setup is not C9++. However, it is similar enough that prplhz instantly recognizes that it is a modified form of C9++. Implication prplhz is very familiar with C9++. If you're familiar with the setup then you should know that the odds of 2 separate mason teams occurring are astronomically low. In fact in order for it to occur: >> 5/7 of the random numbers between 1-100 generated by the host must be between 86-95. Summary: this is very unlikely. Now combine this with Acro's point on this being prplhz's first reaction and suddenly prplhz's post here looks decidedly odd, and as previously suggested: like somebody who believes there are 2 mason teams because town don't lie, and because neither Muso nor Acro are scum. Earlier (before Acro's cc) prplhz, made this post: A few things stick out to me: 1. Suddenly going to be too busy to post much. Where I come from, this often precedes a scum going in to lurker mode. Sign ups were only a couple of days ago. I am sure prplhz thought he could be active in the game when he signed up, but in the space of 48 hrs something's changed. One obvious change is he's received his role card :p. 2. ''Has a lot of interesting reads' so to speak, but won't post them for now because of lack of time. I don't know why this happens, but for some reason scum seem to say it all the time. Make him post them upon his return, or hold him to account for the statement. 3. His observation re: encryption suggests to me that it's something that he looked in to himself. 4. Hating on the one-liners. This is a weak point at best, but one-liners honestly don't bother me, but then I'm town and enjoy reading the day chat. Having played scum a lot in the past I do know the feeling, however when the day chat becomes tedious and you only read it because you have to. After all you've got your own secret night chat that is way more interesting, right? ##Vote: prplhz. On November 02 2012 21:19 Muso wrote: People getting all fired up here. Let's just keep it chill, guys. I'm not sure about the whole replacement thing. Host made it pretty clear that he only replaces under exceptional circumstances, which I took to mean people's relatives dying, etc. That would suggest that there was probably a fairly legitimate reason for a number of the points I read as scum tells. So I'm not sure anymore. ##unvote Should at least let the new guy say something. | ||
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On November 02 2012 23:13 kushm4sta wrote: I.voted for muso for this reason: time had gone by and no one claimed as his.partner like I expected to happen. Claim time again lol. but this claim is not fake. I am anvil vanilla town. My theory is vts do not have character names. The only person I think should claim is if you are a vt and you have a character name. You need to focus more on behaviour and less on mechanics. 1. Because if you even did a LITTLE bit of thought you would see you're barking up the wrong tree and 2. Because more claims at this point is opposite of what we need. Let me spell it out for you. Unless you think it is the bluff of the century (and an INCREDIBLY risky one at that), it is completely impossible that Muso and I are both scum. That leaves: 1. We're both town. This is possible. 2. Muso is town and Acro is scum. This is retarded. Please answer why scum would COUNTERCLAIM a mason claim with no way of knowing it's not legit. 3. Muso is scum and Acro is town. This is possible. Given Muso's playstyle I am hesitant to say whether it's 1 or 3, but leaning marginally towards Muso being town. So, how about you look for scum instead of trying to get people to claim, which is starting to look very dodgy. | ||
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On November 02 2012 23:54 kushm4sta wrote: Well draz is being wish washy as fuck here. So you felt the need to weigh in on both me and prom, even though you have no idea what to think of either of them? DRAZZAK Anyone I am NOT trolling. I don't see how you would come to that conclusion. I have been focusing on mechanics rather than behavior, though, that is true. I will focus on whatever I need to to find scum honestly. Analyzing behavior and analyzing mechanics are both tools you can and should use. I don't know why anyone would dismiss either. Hypothetically, let's say that all vts have non character names like the ones that have been revealed so far (anvil, kid watching tv). Do you really think the mod would give break up that theme by randomly giving 1 vt a character name? You realize that 2 is a very shitty sample, right? Especially as one of those sources is currently the lynch candidate, although you give the impression of having exculpated him. Anyway, it doesn't matter, as I am currently not a lynch candidate, because LOGIC exculpates me. So I am done pointing out all the flaws in your reasoning and moving on to completely ignoring you until you stop fixating on names and start deciding which of Muso and Promethelax should be lynched. What is your opinion on the case against prplhz? Want to comment on things that are actually pertinent to the game? | ||
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On November 03 2012 02:53 drazak wrote: Well, I'm just a little bit flustered by all the people making role claims and then going back on them and then claiming other shit, that's not how you play mafia. >.< I'll have better reads as night cones, with the flip. Really? Please tell me how to play mafia. I can tell you one way how NOT to play mafia and that is to sit around on your ass waiting for the flip, like you are claiming to do here. I looked over your filter and I have to agree with the people saying it's bad. It is completely void of any attempt at hunting scum. I don't think you're a good lynch candidate yet and it's time to consolidate (hint, vote Promethelax, his new contribution is not making me lean any other way), but your play so far has been incredibly lackluster. | ||
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On November 03 2012 01:23 Mattchew wrote: Let's go back to killing muso or release... Also acro's fake claim play was really fucking weird.. I have to look back at the timing of it when I'm on a comp a little later Why not Promethelax (mainly based on the case against prplhz)? I don't like lynching Release atm. Promethelax's play has so far not made any real red flags go off, but then again, I am not really expecting it to. It's easy enough to play townie for a few hours when nothing unexpected is happening. @whoever it was who said prplhz always reads as scum: firstly, he doesn't. I have gotten decent town reads on him from time to time. Secondly, the main case is that he was playing in a way that implies he had more information than town does. That is one of the clearest scumtells in the book. It's like a giant neon sign that is flashing "LYNCH ME". Lets kill Promethelax | ||
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On November 03 2012 04:29 Promethelax wrote: Hi Acro, do you really think lynching a replacement who is actually contributing, has reads and is pushing town to provide reads is a good idea? Please explain. How am I scummier than Draz? Or Muso? Also: just noticed that you answered a question for Muso. Why in the hell would you soft defend one of you scum reads (which I think he still is although you have said that his flipping green would make Me and Kush look scummier)? YOU are not. Your predecessor was and I am not going to forgive and forget your predecessors actions. He made my scumdar shortcircuit. I am completely wacked out about Muso, as I said in my earlier post. His claim is extremely strange as both scum and town. Ignoring that play, I am leaning marginally town, so I don't feel like lynching him. I answered the question because it had already been answered and I wanted to move the discussion forward, not backward. Draz is throwing off waves of uselessness, but it's not directly scummy uselessness, it's just uselessness. If it keeps up, I am all for lynching him, but he hasn't actually blipped my scumdar and if someone can point out how his play is scummy, rather than just bad, I may be onboard. The point is to find people who have a scum agenda, not bad players. | ||
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On November 03 2012 04:39 Promethelax wrote: 'sup Acro. Care to respond to anything I have said? Look, I'm town (I don't care if you think so, just run with it for a second) and if you get my lynched and I flip town what will you have gained by having me here? Nothing. You won't even acknowledge me or anything I've said. If, instead you work with me and look into what I have said town might be able to gain something even while mislynching me. Ignore me if you want to but that is a scum claim. Okay, lets do this exercise. Lynching Mattchew on D1 is a really really bad move. And yes, this is from someone who really likes lynching Mattchew. Plus, someone asked if Mattchew always plays so assertive and aggressive, the answer is a very resounding yes. That doesn't mean I think he's right. I'm kinda null on Release and leaning moderately town on Zealos (which is weird, because Zealos always looks like scum to me). If we ignore you for the moment, that leaves Draz, Kush and Muso as lynch candidates. Which of those would you want to lynch, and why? | ||
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On November 01 2012 08:22 drazak wrote: While I think millers claiming early is good, I don't think they need to claim early D1, it gives mafia someone NOT to lynch as the miller doesn't have a useful role, we could have as many as 2 millers, not sure how many mafia there are (don't think it said in the op) but if it's 2 that means they have 9 possible lynch candidates, if there's 4 that's 7 lynch candidates. Just realized that explanation sucks, but basically what I'm saying is that it gives mafia a TON of information to claim millers so early. This shows Drazak does not understand the basic consequence of claiming miller. Well, either that, or he's scum and wants to be able to claim miller at a later date. That put Drazak into my "noob learning the ropes list". Gets into a little spat with Release. Usually I rather like that kind of thing, because it gives some good info, but this time I just came up null. Could be town, could be scum. Nothing interesting there. On November 02 2012 23:17 drazak wrote: I don't see any reason to change my vote, I honestly have no freaking clue why muso did what he did, but there's nothing town about it, if he is town, he's doing a very bad job establishing himself as town. I hope he isn't town though, a D1 mafia kill would definitely ensure our town victory. Tunneling on Muso: basically he has set his sights on the guy and will not reconsider new evidence. However, it also ties into the earlier thought that Drazak is fairly new to the game and doesn't understand the possibility of the strategy Muso played, if he's town. On November 03 2012 02:41 drazak wrote: I am actually sick of hearing about this theory, it's about flavor. All of the flavor is probably random, for all me know someone is flavor as a fucking cucumber. this is stupid and not good scum hunting. This post makes me lean town. It has the feel of someone irritated that someone else, who he has a townread on, is being dense. It doesn't feel like scum trying to gain brownie points by getting the discussion back on track. On November 03 2012 02:53 drazak wrote: Well, I'm just a little bit flustered by all the people making role claims and then going back on them and then claiming other shit, that's not how you play mafia. >.< I'll have better reads as night cones, with the flip. Useless post is useless. Not a scumtell to be confused, though. On November 03 2012 06:07 drazak wrote: Release actually tried to scumhunt, I'm seeing town on him, even though he still wants to vote for me. I don't think he's done anything to cause confusion, and I think he really wants to find a mafia right now, which is what I'm trying to do. Mattchew is also looking town, although I'd like him to be a bit more active, I don't think he'd say that he likes his gut instincts D1 if he didn't believe in them and have somewhat decent evidence, less town than release but definitely a town read. Hope has about the right amount of defensiveness for a townie, he's gone to lurk mode around lynch time which makes me a little nervous, everyone else seems to be here and willing to talk except him. Not sure what he's up to but when he starts posting again I hope he has a good explaination, I'm neutral on him right now. Thrawn has been trying his damnedest to scumhunt for a D1 hunt, not sure what he thinks he might actually accomplish, but he's asking questions like I should be (but I don't because I suck ) and trying to make things happen. I find him distinctly town at the moment. risk.nuke has not a lot to go on in his filter, and every single one of his comments is 1 line and most of them are fluffy. I think this is even worse than my posts have been. I find him 2nd scummiest after muso. Kush is just doing his fucking trolly ass shit. Town meta for him 100% Zealos doesn't vote anyone and isn't happy with Acro or Muso, not sure what to think here, he wants to vote two of my town reads, not sure I like this, but might just not be following that closely. First real content. It actually aligns fairly well with my own thoughts. Conclusions: I see some bad play, I see some lazy play. I do NOT see a scum motive. And I was actually looking rather hard, because I don't want to vote Muso and it looks less and less like a Promethelax lynch is happening. The main problem with a scum Drazak is that he has ALL the opportunity in the world to just plain lurk... yet he posts anyway. That seems counterproductive as a scumplayer in his place, with a, supposedly, easy mislynch to phone in. If you want to switch the vote, I suggest risk.nuke, who really should be playing a LOT better than he is. But I am still on Promethelax. I will do one more brief post on him next. | ||
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On November 03 2012 06:31 mkfuba07 wrote: Ah, I see... That makes sense. Thx kush and drazak. I'm feeling less and less sure of a drazak lynch since he's returned... And as much as I hate to admit it, kush's flavor theory is swaying me a bit. However, I don't know who I would vote for out of everyone else in the game. I think I'm being too liberal with town reads this game... In any case, it looks like muso is likely going to be lynched with or without me, and drazak is less and less likely to be lynched. ##Unvote ##Vote Muso Ahhh, yet another wishy-washy D1 vote for fuba... Why not promethelax? | ||
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On November 03 2012 04:44 Promethelax wrote: nvm: ninjas, ninjas everywhere. Yeah, you got red vibes off a guy for half of D1 and they are so strong that even though he replaced out you still want to lynch into his slot? That seems unlikely. Maybe you and I see replacements differently but I don't think that they can be held responsible for the actions of their predecessors, especially when there are no actions. Just a few somewhat scummy posts. It is funny, as I was reading this thread before I replaced in prp was up there on my scum list. Knowing his alignment now helps me narrow the scum field though. Do you disagree that Matt seems scummy for testing the waters with Zealos and pushing lynches on newbies? If so why do you not see those actions as scum or do you read the actions themselves differently than I do? He had a scumread on prplhz. Now he is playing for prplhz and expects everybody else who also had a scumread on prplhz to just plain drop it. He has the rather difficult task of convincing town that the scumtells of prplhz were erroneous and he is actually town. He is not doing too bad a job and he probably wouldn't have shown up on my radar if that was all I had. However, it is VERY easy to appear townie for a few hours when needed. Especially when it is near the deadline on D1 and you don't give a crap who gets lynched as long as it isn't yourself or your scumbuddy. So while his posting has been decent (even though I don't like his cases or his targets), I feel the earlier play of prplhz far outweighs this recent spat. So for one last call. Let us lynch Promethelax. | ||
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On November 03 2012 06:34 thrawn2112 wrote: anybody wanna lynch release? several of his posts give the impression that he feels guilty No, we don't. Nor do we want to lynch anybody else who is currently at 0 votes. | ||
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On November 03 2012 06:41 Release wrote: 7 is the magic number so i ask someone who is tentatively voting muso to switch to promethelax. It isn't too hard to understand why. Please don't act braindead. Huh? Why do you want the vote to be easily manipulatable by scum? 8 is a good number. You are pretty much condoning last-minute shenanigans with this bullshit. Two people switch at the last second and claim they were doing what you wanted, but didn't see the other's switch. It's stupid. 8 is fine, 9 is better for consolidation. | ||
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On November 03 2012 06:49 Hopeless1der wrote: Is that a short answer for "fuck it, lynch Muso"? No. It's a cautionary tale on how to play the game. I still want Prom to die, even if that seems completely unlikely. | ||
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Seeing as it's going to be night and giving my scumreads right now will be completely irrelevant for the flip, I will post them at the end of the night. | ||
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On November 03 2012 11:49 Mattchew wrote: But fuck you didn't take the easy scum way out by saying "I didn't vote to lynch him though herp derp" bah why you gotta score townie points and fuck up my tunnel vision You have anything to say about someone else in this game? Can you update your case against Release now that we are more than 3 hours into the game? | ||
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On November 03 2012 19:48 Promethelax wrote: This is a huge town tell on Kush. These were the thoughts I had as well but had not yet expressed due to the awful timing of that TL drop. Sorry I have been gone so long, work is a thing I have to do. I don't know of any way for mafia to know someone's role at that point. Kush. My name doesn't fit the theme you are looking at. How does that affect your read? I would also point to Acro giving out the idea that Kush and I would look scummy if Muso flipped town. Setting up the next mislynch. Figured I'd answer you two as a 2-for-1. You are both idiots for thinking Muso flipping green makes me look scummy. I don't think I am "confirmed town", because you can wifom a scum motive into pretty much anything, but you have to admit that Ockham's razor dubs me as pretty damn townie at this point. I was writing up my entire thought process, but I realized I don't need to. The reason is that counter-claiming a mason claim as scum is beyond idiotic. And anybody not seeing that I am almost certainly town through these actions is simply tunneling, or scum trying to discredit me. To answer kush's question: there is no way for scum to know the claim is fake, other than the same way I did: the claim felt wrong. However, as scum you have EXTRA information: you know the claimer is town. Anybody who has not played scum (apparently quite a few of you) do not know how much power that gives you: you never have to doubt or second-guess your cases: you know what is true about them already. If you want an example, look at Mattchew's play in Holy Roman Maffia. He bussed all his teammates, because he couldn't see how anybody could overlook some of their "obvious" scumslips. However, it also limits you: you do NOT question a townie claiming mason. Simply doesn't happen. At most a scum would've ticked it as "possible fake claim, maybe SK?" There is absolutely NO reason for scum to counterclaim. None. Anybody trying to wifom this around is simply lacking in knowledge on how scum plays. Yes, you could wifom anything and say "but if people think scum has no reason to counterclaim masons then they DO have a reason to counterclaim masons"... except that in most cases this will result in the scum getting lynched. I KNEW I'd have an uphill battle to not get lynched if Muso's claim was true. It was why I set up the whole encrypted thing beforehand. The flavour theory is retarded. It's all I can say in my defense against that. It is fucking stupid to try to use flavour in Bugs' games, who meticulously sets up the game so flavour CANNOT be used and good old-fashioned analysis must prevail. Keep your mechanic-based analysis to themed games. | ||
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1. Thrawn On November 02 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote: Acro, did you breadcrumb your mason role in your opening post? In that very opening post, you clearly state that you think masons should breadcrumb. This is someone who is really trying to figure out what the hell is going on. This post here is proof that he is attentively reading the thread and making crosslinks back to what people said earlier. Can scum do this? Sure. But it's more likely to be town. I see no reason to suspect thrawn at this point. 2. Mattchew I unfortunately have no real read on Mattchew yet. He is phoning in this game and tunneling on Release, which is something I am not very comfortable with. In general, Mattchew either steps up his game, or gets killed by scum before he can, if he's town. Otherwise we lynch him later. Mattchew lategame is generally easy to read. His reaction to the claim and counterclaim made me lean town, but it's not enough to be conclusive in any way. Specially as Mattchew is a pretty good scum player when he isn't obsessively bussing his teammates. 3. Promethelax Said most of what I have to say about this. Plenty of time D2 to actually analyze his play by his own merit. You refer to your previous games as scum. I don't remember reading any of them. Can you please link? Or at least say what games they were? It'd be good to read how well you actually play scum. 4. DarthPunk Has 0 impact on the game. Could be newbie town or flying-under-the-radar scum. 5. Acrofales 6. Hopeless1der Not a strong townread, but a town read all the same. I found his early game very townie and his behaviour regarding Release was townie. I also liked his response to the mason counterclaim. I know that Muso thought he was scum because he wanted to continue pushing him, but I can understand people wanting to kill him for his dodgy play. 7. mkfuba Not many posts. I liked his early game posting, but particularly around the deadline I get the feeling that the vote switching could very much be a scum trying to look like an indecisive townie, taking advantage of the fact that a townie was going to get lynched regardless of what he did. Of course, he could also be an actual indecisive townie and there's too little info other than that to make a decision either way. 8. risk.nuke This post made alarmbells go off: On November 01 2012 23:44 risk.nuke wrote: He's one of the better lynch candidates in the thread right now. Additionally there is a lot of boiling in the release is mafia cauldron. I want to find out is all talk and who's not. He then behaved townie when I revealed my lie. However, he is really underperforming. He is not sharing reads, pressuring people or doing anything that could be considered townie. He is basically a lurker, which is rather bad for one of the more experienced players in this game. 9. drazak Not much more to say here than I did at the end of D1. He looks like an inexperienced townie. 10. kushm4sta I will just copypaste the earlier case by thrawn: On November 02 2012 21:51 thrawn2112 wrote: fos kush muso/acro His first statement about the double mason claim was this: Then a page or so goes by with people jumping on the vote muso bandwagon, and then here's kush's next post: So he thinks that both claims are legit.... then after people start voting muso he decides to vote muso because of.... what change of opinion? None that I can see, just a disclaimer about waiting for additional claims. Muso/Acro if you guys are both town and believe each other to be town, and you're skeptical of prplhz for beliveing both claims, what do you think about kush's actions? After Acro reveals the encryption.... kush decides to vote Acro? Based on what? He didn't say. He gave no reason for unvoting the first fake claim and votes the next fake claim based on...... nothing. shutting down discussion That is the dumbest logic ever. Kush says that anyone who talks about muso is derailing discussion? wtf. I'd say that kush was the one actually trying to derail discussion. blue hunting he makes several references to flavor names, and he even specifically asks for vt's to step forward and weigh in on if they think "jessica rabbit" or "kid watching tv" fit with the names other vt's were given. It's not the same asking "hey who is blue" but indirectly it would have the same outcome. I would also like to add that On November 03 2012 05:57 kushm4sta wrote: Ah shit that is a flow claim. The role names are valuable as fuck..don't see why people don't realize that. Carrot sounds good to me. ##unvote this is just drazak being drazak (Sry about double zs before) is a terrible reason to change your mind. It feels like a scum realizing that this townie is not gonna get lynched, so coming up with a "legit" reason to change votes and secure the kill on someone we now know for sure is a townie: Muso. Out of all the votes on Muso, this is the only one that appears really fishy to me. Especially as he felt strongly enough about Drazak to even introduce him as an alternative lynch candidate at the end of the day. 11. Release The early pressure on him and his response made me lean marginally town and that opinion hasn't changed. This post: On November 01 2012 11:20 Release wrote: Do not use this post later to claim that i am shifting attention off myself. I acknowledge that I am under suspicion. So in the flurry of comment regarding the claiming, we seem to have dismissed the possibility of enacting a Lynch-all-liars policy. The main con i see if we do enact it is that we can't pull use fishing for reactions as freely. The main pro, however, is that people can't claim to be fishing for reactions. Another consequence is that more information is in the thread. Both town and mafia know more about true intentions and can react accordingly. Personally, i am against such a policy because people can very easily say "i changed my mind" and blame/vindication will tend to be imposed base on a town/scum flip. He knows it is extremely dumb to do, because it IS shifting attention off himself. He does this regardless, to push more discussion on D1. It just doesn't feel like a scum move to play like this. His reaction to Muso's claim was weird, but not scummy. I also like that he is participating enough to read Prome's filter and find his own reason to add to the case against him, rather than just going along with one of the bandwagons forming. It does not feel like something scum just trumped up to justify the vote. 12. Zealos The simple fact that he doesn't instantly feel like scum should make me want to colour his name green. However, he does not contribute enough to make me feel like he's actually town. I am actually not very familiar with Zealos' scumplay at all, and he may just be flying under the radar. Needs to step it up and contribute more actively to the game. 13 Dead. So yeah, I feel like I have a pretty good lead on Promethelax and you can call it tunneling all you like, but I am going to keep harping on him until he convinces me he's town, or one of us dies. His scumbuddy is still up in the air. I feel like kush could very well be scum too. His focus on irrelevant details and the dodgy voteswitch really make me lean scum. Other than that, anybody who is black in that list could be scum or an SK too. I am disappointed in risk and Mattchew's lack of activity and was expecting more from Hopeless1der too. | ||
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On November 04 2012 00:56 risk.nuke wrote: I'm heading to a Halloween party in a while. If anyone want to talk with me before daypost it's now. I somehow doubt mafia will shoot you, but you never know. How about you give out some reads. You haven't given out any in like... 40 hours. You were critical of prplhz before the crazyness happened, but never switched off Muso. You haven't given out reads on anybody else since. How about you start. | ||
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And also ##vote Promethelax Good night. | ||
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Good night. | ||
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On November 04 2012 20:48 DarthPunk wrote: Seriously. Can we stop with the role name bullshit. My god. Both of you voting prom for not claiming seriously? You should probably bother to read the thread if you think that that is the reason I am voting for Prom. | ||
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On November 04 2012 21:07 Promethelax wrote: I was thinking about this. Zealos was pretty sure about me being scum and Acro being town. He may have tried to Save Acro or RB me. I'm not sure if Matt would use his 1-shot n1 so there is probably at least another Role Blocker still in the game ( I assume scum has one). I was wondering, neither Matt nor Zealos felt all that blue to me and I assume Mafia felt the same way. Which of their reads are most convincing to you? Matt for being a veteran and quite a few people having a green read on him.Zealos I am unsure about. Maybe someone got a whiff of blue on him. Your and risk's jailer theory makes sense. Zealos could have jailed me given his posting this game. He could also have jailed you, in the hope of preventing a mafia hit. Matt doesn't seem like he would rb either one of us, so that was probably scum whiffing blue, probably because of kush's inane mechanics posts. | ||
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2 or 3, see http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9++ We have any of the situations with 3 or less Ts: 1-shot rb means at least two Bs and I presume mdics became jailers in Bugs' setup. Two NKs adds either an SK or a vig, so that is the scenarios with 3 or less Ts. That also means: stop fucking claiming VT. | ||
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On November 04 2012 21:50 DarthPunk wrote: Oh that's right. You are still tunnelling the same read you had during the first part of day one. That is even more scummy than rampant setup speculation at all costs. Glad to see you're here. How about some reads of your own in stead of pages of useless filler posts? | ||
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On November 04 2012 22:01 mkfuba07 wrote: Hi all. I'm terrible at hopping back into the thread. Is there anything in particular that you'd like me to comment on? If not I'll probably end up solo-analyzing filters and talking myself in circles, which doesn't help anyone XD Top 3 scumreads please. | ||
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On November 04 2012 22:25 Promethelax wrote: His lynch felt the same way there was a role based reason so vote him (his claim) and everyone was on board. It was too easy, there was no counter wagon even though the guy counter claiming him was also fake claiming. That felt pretty fishy to me and worth trying to create an actual dichotomy in the voting. Since you seem to think that I am as dumb as a couple of rocks trying to fuck could you maybe give me some hints as to why Matt was 'obviously' townie. It wasn't obvious to me (though I think I'm 100% for reading Matt wrong in games with him, in MTG I thought he was town and in LC I was calling him out as scum; same thing here). Acro: why do you ignore everything directed from me to you? If you are town you lose out on making one of your scum reads have to be more involved in the thread. Just ignoring me gives me a good reason to get mad and stop trying to play and start getting emotional. If you are town there is nothing to lose from answering my questions instead of ignoring them. If I am town or if I am mafia a town you would do better for talking to me. I'm not sure what questions you mean. I have no extra info about the number of scum. Other than that, all your questions have already been answered in the various posts I made about you. I am fully willing to recognize that currently my judgement is rather clouded with regards to you: I think you're scum and am able to come up with a good scum reason for everything you have said an done. I looked over your meta, but it's pretty inconclusive. You're rather outspoken regardless of alignment. That's the reason I am not engaging you: it'll shit up the thread (see any game in which Bugs and VE play together) and I prefer other townies chip in with their opinions of you. I feel my case is strong. If you want my other scumreads? Kush is still up there, although Matt made a good point. DarthPunk is slowly on the rise. That's about all that has registered as "changed" since my list during the night. The roleblocks are inconclusive: they can only give positive confirmation that someone is scum if the scum kill doesn't happen (and then there's still the possibility of the scum actually forgetting to kill, or a medic protect stopping the kill). In the case of the scumkill happening, it could still be performed by the other member(s) of the team. There's no way of knowing who is the designated killer. Also, I think it is extremely unlikely Zealos was shot by a vig, so I am tentatively going with the SK theory. That means there are at least 3 bad guys, and possibly 4. We are currently 10 players, so we're possibly at mylo already. | ||
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Yes, that means I believe Thrawn. I still think it very likely we have an SK, so here are the options: TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof) T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof) That means we are at mylo. | ||
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Release vs. Kushm4sta: at the time I thought it was Kush being dumb and Release being dumber. However, it WAS a very easy mistake for scum to jump on and a newbie scum (and this would be Release's first scum game) could definitely be expected to try to jump on that. While in my nightpost I said that his "distraction" post read as too ballsy a move for scum, we must not forget that it actually worked. The topic shifted away from Release's aggression towards Kush and onto more easily handled subjects. Partially helped by Muso's claim. Release's behaviour in that claim was very very weird. The first thing he reacted with was On November 01 2012 13:07 Release wrote: Sounds like bait from Muso. Wants me to push the agenda with which i have already parted. Muso... This is strange play, regardless of alignment, and I am unsure what to make of it. One way this makes sense is if he was WAITING for a trap to be laid, and he caught it out. Town doesn't wait for traps. Scum does. However, in the whole ordeal, this is what really caught my eye: On November 02 2012 09:56 Release wrote: I've caught up with the reading and afai can tell, Muso's reason for why he did such things is based on WIFOM( yes many things in mafia are wifom, but this has little to help up). From what i see the intent of this post was to spread confusion and maybe set up a 1 for 1 trade, which could have been accomplished with accrofale's claim. more to come later. This slipped by me the first time. A 1 for 1 trade is a TERRIBLE deal for scum. Both scum and town players know that. However, if you KNOW Muso and Acro are both town, then you suddenly have to come up with a reason to lynch Muso. This reason is extremely forced. Most everybody else was just really confused about why Muso would claim mason as scum... which is the correct reaction. Kush actually called him out on this post at the time and his response was a classic OMGUS with some more idiotic logic where he tries to make a 1-1 trade make sense with complete lunacy: On November 02 2012 11:26 Release wrote: Are you trying to start a fight with me? I said I caught up so i don't get "did you even read?"s in response to my post. You wanted me to only read Muso's last post and skip everything else? Spread confusion = mafia trait Mafia might want to do a 1 for 1 trade because as of now, we see that Muso is terrible, and maybe he had been terrible in the mafia QT. Of course this is Hypothetical and you'd have to ask the mafia themselves to get the right answer. Then the vote switching: he wants to vote for Promethelax, but if we can get a majority on Drazak, he will go along with the deal. Ends up voting Muso because: On November 03 2012 06:12 Release wrote: Vote count? If at 14:59 we have 6 votes on Muso, I will switch. I am a firm believer that nolynch day1 sucks balls for town. In other words: doesn't give a shit about where his vote ends up as long as it secures a lynch (on a townie like Muso, who despite what Promethelax says was always going to be lynched, because it was way too late for a voteswitch anywhere else with half the town afk at the deadline). But the REAL nail in the coffin is: On November 03 2012 10:50 Release wrote: You expected me to deliberately not vote what appeared to be very scummy behavior? Hell, i could have chosen accro too if i wanted to lynch-all-liars. I chose Muso for the scummy manner in which he lied. Wait... WHAT? You voted for Muso to ensure the lynch would happen. You ACTUALLY preferred both Promethelax and Drazak (or at least said you did)... however NOW his behaviour was suddenly very scummy. Add to that, that he has put 0 effort into this game except when under fire and we have ourselves a scum. I am not sure what this says about Promethelax. Still thinking things over. However, Release has surpassed Promethelax as my prime scum read. ##unvote ##vote Release PS. Yes, I said I was reading DarthPunk: that was completely inconclusive and I don't know what to make of him. | ||
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On November 05 2012 03:12 Hopeless1der wrote: I didn't find any breadcrumbs. However, I have a question: Any merit to this statement from Mattchew? Would wbg handpick roles? Many mods do. However, it is entirely possible the roles were RNG'd as well (also done in many normal games). Keep it in mind, though. It is simply an extra vector to balance the game, which may or may not have been used. | ||
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The case still stands, though: 1. Forced reasoning around Muso's mason claim 2. Guilty conscience 3. AFK when he is not under attack All rather strong scumtells. | ||
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On November 05 2012 03:56 Release wrote: My final post was on prome. Just saying. Does that change your case at all? More to come. LOL. Lurking much? Thanks for confirming my point about you only showing up when accused of being scum, scum. | ||
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I am not discounting the possibility that Kush is a godfather. I had him down as pretty scummy before now, for similar reasons as you have in your case. However, a green check is enough reason to at least let off him and give him the benefit of the doubt for now. You, however, have been very scummy and do NOT have a green check. You addressed the very last bit of my case, which was wrong. You never voted for Muso. I am confused how Kush decided you were townie based on On November 05 2012 04:47 Release wrote: Passive lurking. I didn't make posts, you knew i was lurking, i'll even state that: I was lurking. But I'm not convinced. Also it's a nice coincidence that your 20-hour AFK streak ended JUST as I made a case against you. How convenient. | ||
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On November 05 2012 04:20 kushm4sta wrote: With all this claim nonsense we forgot about hoe scummy release looks lol. You case convinces me. ##unvote ##vote release On November 05 2012 04:47 Release wrote: Passive lurking. I didn't make posts, you knew i was lurking, i'll even state that: I was lurking. On November 05 2012 04:55 kushm4sta wrote: ##unvote release gives me town vibes and I can't ignore that. going to unvote until I figure things out. | ||
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On November 05 2012 05:56 kushm4sta wrote: ROFL guys I'm the ringleader... do scum even make posts this ridiculous? Don't ignore his case. It's the only one that makes sense. The connections are bollocks, but his ideas about you line up quite nicely with my own. You have been playing scummy and although Mattchew has a point that it would take balls of steel to actually play scum the way you are playing, that only covers part of it. I feel scum would not be so overt and persistent about bluefishing. That and the green check are the only two things that are keeping you off my "obvious scum" list. | ||
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@Drazak: elaborate on these completely throwaway accusations: On November 04 2012 22:10 drazak wrote: I don't like DP, he has a bunch of fluffy ass shit in his filter, I want to hear more from hope, he's been really lurky. probably my top two scum reads right now. | ||
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On November 05 2012 02:39 mkfuba07 wrote: I'm still looking through Acro and Prome's filters, since I had a town read on both of them and apparently many people disagree. Glad to hear thrawn and Kush are both reasonably confirmed town. One question: if there is an SK is it definitely mylo? Can't scum and SK kill each other? You done reading yet? What do you think of Promethelax? Also, what do you think of Release? @Kush: I get null on reading fuba. He doesn't read as townie, but he has not done anything scummy either (except fly under the radar). I have not checked his meta. For me, this feels like a lurker lynch. My reads on Release and Prom are quite a bit stronger. + Show Spoiler [mylo explanation] + Regarding your question: it doesn't matter, it's still mylo. Mylo is counted as a worst-case scenario: medics and roleblockers could also save the town (in any scenario), but assuming NKs happen on townies, we would lose by mislynching. | ||
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On November 05 2012 14:45 thrawn2112 wrote: kush, do you believe my claim? I'm not liking the release lynch too much because of how town atmosphere has been so far D2. For one, release hasn't let up on contributing, when someone asks him for an explanation he isn't reluctant to give it and they match up well with his earlier posts. I also got a town read from his crazy conspiracy scumteam association cases. Finally, there's been a very low amount of conversation so far and I'd expect there to be more going on if we were actually on the trail to catching a scum. My weekend "activities" are almost concluded so soon I'll be posting in increasing frequency up until lynch. Thoughts on who I want to lynch will come along with that. So what do you think of Promethelax? | ||
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Also, @thrawn: you say there has not been much talk about Release, but there has been plenty of resistance to lynching Release. Does that affect your thoughts? | ||
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Out of the rest, I don't feel comfortable with anybody, which is pretty damned pathetic this far into the game. Nobody is putting in even a minimum of effort except Promethelax and I am still trying to wrap my mind around him. Kush has a green check, and is taking advantage of that to do absolutely nothing useful. Release has a big conspiracy theory centered on the one person who pretty much everybody is in agreement would be a BAD lynch candidate today, namely the one person with a green check. Mkfuba is semi-lurking with not much original thought at all. Hopeless1der should know better than to be phoning in a brief thought every 10 hours or so. Drazak has gone awol. DarthPunk has gone awol. Promethelax is at least playing the game. I am therefore revoking my will to lynch him based on simple activity. Another reason is his response to my case on Release. He did NOT take advantage of my reprieve to simply stop playing the game and even sheep me, which would have been the easy way out for a scum Promethelax. A similar thing is starting to go for Release. Initially I was going to post a disclaimer that my main problem with a scum Release was that his play was erratic, which could be erratic town just as well as erratic scum. I then removed that disclaimer when I thought I found the mother of all scumslips, but it was actually an error on my part due to not looking at timestamps. I still think there's something in the "guilty conscience" and the "active lurking" accusations, but I am not sure I feel a lynch on him anymore. Instead I am going to take a very very careful look at Hopeless1der, Fuba, Drazak and DP, because I am getting the feeling there's at least 2 scum hiding there, coasting their way to victory on the backs of a completely apathetic town. | ||
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On November 05 2012 21:18 DarthPunk wrote: What is the purpose in asking this? It seems weird to me. Why does it seem weird? | ||
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The case for Hopeless1der The scum mindset On November 01 2012 10:49 Hopeless1der wrote: <snip> I grudgingly agree that kush derps pretty consistently. Why grudgingly? Why would a townie grudgingly admit to knowing something about a fellow townie that exculpates him. Would this not be a good thing? However, from a scum viewpoint, it makes sense: he does not want to admit that Kush derps pretty consistently, but feels compelled by the general direction of the game, and the need to make a good impression at the start of it to grudgingly admit to this information. Regarding Muso: On November 02 2012 03:20 Hopeless1der wrote: Okay, ignoring the possibility of two mason pairs: I could actually quote every single one of Muso's posts to help make my point... - He "lied" about his game history + Show Spoiler + On November 01 2012 13:25 Muso wrote: Oh sorry guys I didn't know there was a difference between Mason and Miller. I know I said I'd played hundreds of mafia games before but I actually lied just to get in to the game. This is my first one, but I watched a few youtube videos so I thin I get it. Sorry if I'm bad :S - He "lied" about reading the game setup + Show Spoiler + On November 01 2012 13:25 Muso wrote: Oh sorry guys I didn't know there was a difference between Mason and Miller. I know I said I'd played hundreds of mafia games before but I actually lied just to get in to the game. This is my first one, but I watched a few youtube videos so I thin I get it. Sorry if I'm bad :S On November 01 2012 13:41 Muso wrote: I am a mason, I didn't know there was a miller too Are the lies because he's new and quite frankly, stupid? Or because his fake-claim was TERRIBLE and he's banking on the pity card to save him somehow? ##Vote: Muso Acro has provided an encrypted 'claim post' and I don't see the benefit to a 1-1 trade if Acro was scum. This situation makes way more sense if Acro is telling the truth. Technically, 2 mason pairs is possible, but quite frankly I think we're going to be lynching Muso regardless now, even if a "partner" claims. His filter is just too wrong for me to be willing to let him live. Here is what I would suggest: Muso, if you are in fact a mason, write a last will for your partner to use to confirm themselves. Muso's Partner - Unless you think you can save him, do not claim until after the 1hr resolution period starts at the end of the night phase. There is no good reason to out yourself before that time (unless you can save him). Could someone comment on that suggestion, and perhaps if they would even believe someone claiming to be Muso's mason-partner? I really don't think revealing the other halves is a good idea right now. At this point all Muso had done wrong, as far as anybody knew was lie about his experience in the game. If a mason claimed to be his partner, then his claim would be more believable than mine. However, hopeless wants to go ahead and lynch him REGARDLESS of any further developments. Now, hopeless may be a townie making an error of judgement and believing my claim unconditionally. However, at this point I see no real reason to say we should lynch Muso regardless unless you're scum and want to push strongly for that townie lynch. At this point, my claim was by far the more believable one (as evidenced by everybody voting Muso), so he picked Muso to bandwagon on, rather than me. On November 03 2012 01:05 Hopeless1der wrote: <snip> He only ever claimed NOT Mason. Granted, green text, but that's inconclusive. However, the reason I think your theory is bad is that I think scum have fakeclaims. My question never got answered and I think it's clear that Hiro was replying to the posts I quoted. Suspicious minds would say that you are paying way too close attention to the wording and that you are, in fact, bluehunting. I thought this was worth mentioning, because the tone rubbed me the wrong way at the time. I am still not quite sure why though. If I had to say, it is because Hopeless seems to be puzzling rather hard over whether my claim means I'm claiming VT or not. Something townies shouldn't be worried about (except that Kush got everybody riled up about it). The OMGUS On November 03 2012 01:57 Hopeless1der wrote: This post just strengthens my resolve to lynch you Muso. "If in the future Promethelax rolls town, I highly suggest interrogating Hopeless1der." In this scenario, I'm scum for NOT wanting to lynch a townie. Please clarify what you mean if you're still around. Now I think that Muso did not word himself properly here, but his main point was that hopeless1der was unwilling to even consider the possibility that Muso was town. Hopeless skipped right over that part and made a jump of bad logic: Muso knows he'll flip town and is talking about AFTER his death, when everybody else will know he flipped town too. He thinks Prom is scum and Hopeless is trying to keep the lynch focused on Muso to protect his scumbuddy. However, regardless of what Prom flips, he urges us to look into Hopeless. The mere fact that Hopeless is unwilling to consider a town Muso is what he is finding scummy. This is indeed scummy behaviour. Hopeless' way of dealing with this is to discredit it and OMGUS someone who is already about to die anyway. He shows absolutely NO willingness to even consider the possibility that Muso is town. That may be because he already knows Muso is town and he has absolutely no reason to reconsider his thoughts given the rather large amounts of new information. The lurk After 18 hours of inactivity (all through the night, I might add, which is when scum is busy deciding whom to shoot in their own little QT) we get: On November 05 2012 01:33 Hopeless1der wrote: My activity is bad and I should feel bad. Reading Prom, Acro and risk.nuke's filters first, as they're being angry with one another. This is an utterly useless post, which just emphasizes his lurkiness. I don't see this as "too bold to be scum". People had noticed his absense and were commenting on it. He needed to say something about it. This is all we get. Since then his activity has been limited to a rather bad meta-case against Promethelax, and a throwaway statement that he wants to lynch Drazak. If anything they feel like testers: if somebody bites and starts ramping up a case against Release or Drazak, he is ready to jump on it. However, he is completely noncommittal and happy to do no scumhunting of his own. This also ties into his earlier behaviour (see below): he showed commitment and activity in the game, but once people started reading him as town (me in my night post, for instance), he dropped off the map. Also, lets not forget Mattchew[/green's opinion. Mattchew is actually a pretty good scumhunter, despite him claiming otherwise, and it is always a good idea to listen to what he says (although moreso when he's scum ) I think hopeless has a pretty decent chance of flipping scum. His posts are long but usually contain a lot of summary with very little opinion on a lot of things, and barely any thought process sharing The case for Hopeless1der Keeping discussion from derailing On November 03 2012 01:05 Hopeless1der wrote: Review the spoiler. Information is deliberately missing. I don't know how "hard" it would be for scum to come up with a VT name. <snip> Why would scum be afraid of kush running rampant with his crazy theory. Fake claming seems particularly easy.. and all that is needed to placate Kush is a silly VT claim like Paint Bucket or Boulder if push really comes to shove and town starts mass claiming. And that's assuming scum isn't given a list of safeclaims in the first place (a fairly common thing for normal games). However, as town, this whole discussion was a giant distraction from what we should have been doing: scumhunting. Hopeless seems to be trying to keep the town on track. Keeping promises Too often scum make a promise to be active and then forget about it. It's one of the things I like to look for when reading filters. Hopeless makes a promise and delivers on it. This put him on my town list initially, as it shows a certain consistency. Not a big tell, though, especially given his later behaviour. See above. + Show Spoiler [Hopeless1der's promise] + On November 01 2012 12:19 Hopeless1der wrote: Well, I haven't properly commented on you yet Release. Based on what I've seen, really scummy push against kush. However, I'm going to read those newbie games you posted seeing as I was in two of them and then come back to this. We'll see how some meta analysis holds up. Also, I doubt I get that done tonight since I need to be up really early for work; Going to bed in a bit so I'll post my findings in an approximate 15 hours from now. 15 hours later: On November 02 2012 02:56 Hopeless1der wrote: Release's first game ever on TL, opening post[green]Town: + Show Spoiler + On May 22 2012 09:08 Release wrote: You say that you are for a vote, but you state that your other vote was luck based. Considering you said "very luck based", doesn't that mean to say that we are not going to experience the same luck? If we don't experience the same luck, we will very much end up lynching a townie, which makes your "for a vote" seem like you want to lynch a townie. Also, why are you talking about the last game? You should be more concerned with this game and find out ways for pointing out scum rather than ways not to. This seems more like filler. The useful part of your post can be summarized by: We should have a lynch today. A no-lynch would be detrimental. ##FOS: Mordanis Fairly similar to his attack on kush this game. 2nd game Town, he spends most of the game tunneling grush. Way more 1-liners, inconclusive to the current situation 3rd game Vig, he gets in my face pretty early, but generally tried to keep talking. Also cited activity issues due to school? 4th game Town, + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 08:58 Release wrote: I think YourHarry is Grush's new alias. Ignoring the copy-pasted policy stuff for now, Why on earth did you even post that scenario stuff about a VT fake-claiming a DT or blue? There was absolutely no indication that anyone had even planned on that (especially considering you had the first post). If anything, you have just shown people something they can do (to the detriment of the town). And why go through the casework? It's just fluff and you know it. This is very much a post looking like a contribution, while being a non-contribution, or even an anti-contribution. Im pretty sure, again, that no one was even remotely close to voting in a way to force a nolynch. I love the bolded line; you could have kept this post simple and concise. But you decided to make it "super-duper long." ##vote: Lazermonkey Yourharry, you should do more than OMGUS. You are definitely rivaling, for scumminess, against lazer. Fos: yourharry Fos: lazermonkey Keep in mind, he's already spent a game tunneling grush, from what I can tell, it was related to fake-claims. Opens with hostility and a vote. To be fair, I don't think he's ever rolled scum, but his jumping out of the gate fighting looks like hes town yet again. He's never played with kush before. He also explained that he expects people to NOT derp all over the thread when they post here: + Show Spoiler + On November 01 2012 10:09 Release wrote: well, you were assigning Mason traits to the miller, which led to the confusion that it did between who should claim. Also, you didn't mention mason but the "town who can talk to each other." You avoided saying mason. Mason is clear. "town who can talk to each other" could be mason, but could be miller if someone assumed you were talking about who YOU thought "could talk to each other." Mafia is a game in which posts can't be editted. People tend to check their posts for any dubious or tentative information. I highly doubt that you "mixed up" their names because things like that tend to get checked, which leads me to believe you said such things on purpose. I wasn't talking about the mass claim. That was rather obvious. Sadly, kush is unable to meet that requirement. My "meta" read is that this strong aggression is in fact representative of town release. Keeping in mind that there are no scum games to compare with, I'm not willing to vote Release for his posts against kush. i also agree with this from Zealos: I think I have a handle on this mason claim shitfest. I'm rereading this through more carefully because I just kind of glanced the thread over, but I think I'm going to be voting Muso in a moment. Incidentally, I also liked the content of this post as it agreed rather largely with what I found based on Release's meta. However, scum has an easy time making town reads look right, because they already know that the player is town. | ||
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On November 05 2012 22:17 DarthPunk wrote: Why does he care if the person he checked believes him? If I was fake claiming I would be nervous I outed myself and would be dying to know if the 'check' claim was good. The person who can immediately damn him is kush. So weird. Also kush happened to be the one person you could rely on as scum to be VT. Seeing as he basically was claiming VT in the thread with his flavour theory. Anyway. Struck me as odd to ask that. So I wanted to hear thrawns reasoning. Why would he need to check VT? All he gets is green or red. The only chance of a scum picking someone who is NOT green to fakeclaim on is if he picked the SK. Which reminds me. Kush COULD be a check-immune SK. There are 2 possible check-immune players in this game, not just the godfather. However, I prefer to lynch scum than the SK at this point, who, if he has any brains at all, should be trying to shoot scum tonight, or he will outright lose the game. | ||
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Basically Drazak's opinion on people seems to be largely influenced by what they think about him. This could be scum, however newbie paranoid townies also have the tendency to think that anybody who posts a case against them must be scum. + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler [case against Drazak] + On November 04 2012 02:47 DarthPunk wrote: <snip> He goes from wishy washy on kush. Saying he could be scummy. Then he posts his role name somewhat aggressively. After which kush thinks he is town based on his theory with the flavor immediatly after kush unvotes him and declares him to be town. Drazak posts his 'reads' First of all I hate lists such as these. They allow scum to seem to participate without actually doing anything. A few sentences on several players comprise drazak's 'reads' HOWEVER. Note the read on kush. He has gone from scummy and wishy-washy to 100% town meta. IMMEDIATELY after kush declares a town read on drazak. It seems as if Drazaks opinion of someones scumminess is linked to their opinion on draz. Now THAT is scummy to me. Combined with all the wishy-washy posting and fluff one liners. I would certainly like to lynch drazak. <snip> DarthPunk says that Drazak's reads are based on OMGUS and buddying. Up to this point, Drazak has not mentioned DP, except for one line that he doesn't have enough posts to make a read on. After the accusation we get: On November 04 2012 22:10 drazak wrote: I don't like DP, he has a bunch of fluffy ass shit in his filter, I want to hear more from hope, he's been really lurky. probably my top two scum reads right now. DP does post rather fluffy, but he has posted some solid content. Most notably, his case against Drazak. This just seems to be more reads based on what the other person thinks of you. In general, this kinda fits with Drazak's entire game: none of his posts are particularly useful, but I am having a really tough time reading a scum motivation into them. He is slowly rising in my scumometer, but I need a lot more convincing that he's scum. So far the only real sensible case against him is the one by DP and other than that everybody's just sheeping onto him for lack of a better option. How about everybody who wants Drazak dead actually says WHY they want that. It feels too much like a scum-manipulated mislynch. Also read DP's filter and I am slowly starting to read him as town, rather than just null. In the rather long fluffy posts he makes, he actually does have some decent analysis and he is pressuring people correctly. I have so far seen nothing that indicates a scum motive behind his play... and unlike most everybody else he has a valid excuse for inactivity: he is asleep when most of us are active. I am pretty much null on mkfuba. He gives the reasoning behind his suspicion of Drazak. Other than that he is perfectly willing to sheep, and admits to doing that. While it is not strong town play, wiser people than me (Sandroba) have pointed out that it is not scummy: if you don't trust your own scum reads, you're better off sheeping a strong town read than shitting up the thread with bad cases. However, someone as unreadable as him is not a good player to have around if we actually manage to drag out this game by catching some scum. To me he currently reads as a total coinflip. | ||
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Promethelax(2): risk.nuke, Hopeless1der Release(1): Acrofales, kushm4sta(1): Release Hopeless1der(1): Drazak Drazak(1): DarthPunk No vote: thrawn, kushm4sta, mkfuba, promethelax. This is particularly incriminating to promethelax, who has shown quite a bit of activity, has pressured people, but has held off committing to anything. The other people in the no-vote list have not shown much activity at all D2, so their forgetting to vote is within the line of expectations. This is extended-majority vote people! Using your vote properly is important! | ||
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D1 he posted a case on Drazak. A rather shoddy one, based pretty much only on meta and the fact that Draz makes fluffy posts. That case has not evolved into something more solid. Instead Prom is just throwing out his name every now and then with the assertion that he wants to lynch him. Other than that, he has said that: 1. Release is probably town, despite scummy play. 2. Kush got a greencheck, so should not be lynched. 3. Acro is scum because he calls it "scumbuddy", rather than "one or more of your potentially multiple scumbuddies". Btw, given the setup of C9++ I was quite obviously WRONG if you interpret that as me subconsciously referring to the number of mafia being 2, because given the number of blue roles that have been revealed there are definitely 3 mafia. One thing that I found in his filter which is sticking out at me: On November 03 2012 07:14 Promethelax wrote: So we have until 7:14 TL time. Muso, it seems pretty clear that you are getting lynched, if you are around I'd love to here anything from you. Some reads or anything we can build on after your flip. This post bothers me. I cannot shake the feeling that it is made with PRIOR knowledge that Muso will flip town. He earlier said Muso was a coinflip to him, but this post is made with the conviction of someone who believes Muso is town, who should use his dying breath to help town. In fact, Prom is taking this opportunity to look townie by asking Muso, the townie, to please do so: he knows Muso will flip town. This prior knowledge is not as strong as the prplhz confusion about the double mason claim. However, I feel it is very much present and this is Promethelax overplaying his hand. Combined with the activity without scumhunting and the attitude of waiting for a new bandwagon to get going to vote while throwing Drazak's name out a lot... yeah. I know who I want to lynch. ##unvote ##vote Promethelax | ||
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However, the meta is inconclusive. Mkfuba's general activity level has dropped between LC and this game, however his way of posting has not. Only tell is that he is more apologetic and trying to play the noob card, which is something he was NOT doing in LC at all. Not sure that's enough to seal the deal. Of course all townies want scum to post a list of reads as a last will. However, they don't ever (unless they're stupid, or think they can wheedle out of the lynch). You don't ask scum for a list of reads, because it is pointless. Townies ask people who they think might flip town for a last minute list of reads. The no-lynch option. I think we can safely assume it is currently 6-3-1, given the C9++ setup and what we know about the roles so far. If we no-lynch and the SK and scum both hit a townie, we are at 4-3-1. This eliminates 2 players from the list of possible scum and puts us in a VERY precarious spot. The only advantage we have in this situation over the current one is that the SK is kinda forced to play for town until it's down to X-1-1. The main advantage of playing no-lynch is that we have a chance of the SK eliminating a scum, or scum eliminating the SK. The SK at this point should be playing with town and trying to reduce the power of scum. Scum might also want to think about taking out the SK in order to remove the competing KP. Another aspect of no-lynch is that it gives us 72 more hours to make sense of the game. More time = more posts = more time for town to play townie and scum to play scummy. The main question is whether we think our judgement will improve in that time, or we have a decent bead on scum right now. Lynching scum or the SK (less good, but still better than no-lynch) would be better than no-lynch. | ||
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On November 06 2012 02:52 Promethelax wrote: Acro: you have a real history of coming into the thread posting something and leaving. Why is it that you don't want to interact with people? I'm still here for 20 minutes before my midterm + Show Spoiler + the hell with my midterm Fuba, respond to my case in your first post back in the thread. Don't give yourself excuses. I'll interact with you. I was looking over Fuba's meta and trying to make up my mind about you, hopeless or a no-lynch. I didn't manage yet. | ||
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Atm yes. I prefer a no-lynch to mkfuba or release. How about you. What do you think of a no-lynch? | ||
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He basically made 1 post at prplhz in which he didn't accuse him of being scum, yet that is suddenly: On November 04 2012 00:26 risk.nuke wrote: Hillarious how you can bring up a post of me pressuring people, dismiss it as scummy and then accuse me of never pressuring people. Two wrongs with one stone. Additionally I was pressuring prplhz hard just before he quit. Then I was leading on the Muso lynch arguing for it because it was the only thing to do. What the hell more do you expect from me? Want me to talk about the weather. The fact that nobody even mentions him is similarly dodgy: he is doing a great job of flying under the radar. That makes me unsure about most of the people in the thread. Not sure 72 more hours will fix that, but it sure as hell won't make it worse. Also, I might get killed and then I don't have to worry aobut it anymore ##vote no lynch | ||
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On November 06 2012 03:25 Promethelax wrote: Do you really feel that lynching the SK would be beneficial to us? I really don't want to lynch into confirmed KP which, assuming the SK isn't retarded is aiming at scum. Are you, Acro, really so unsure of your scum reads that you want to no lynch? You have been pretty confidant all game that I am scum, why drop it now in favour of a no lynch? In asking Muso for reads I 1) did think he was likely to flip town at that point, his lynch had been pushed through too easily and 2) assumed that if he was scum and had made the worst scum play in ever he might post reads too. In LC DP was scum and Fuba was town. Both have flipped on their LC meta. Fuba is not as bad a player as he is showing in this game and he doesn't give himself apologetics as town. Ah, I missed this post. Yes. I have too many scumreads for there to be scum. I thought I had it figured out just before I flipped the whole thing the finger. I was going to make the post: Town: risk.nuke, thrawn, Acro Sort of greenish gray: DP, Drazak, Release Too weird to make sense of atm: Kush Null: mkfuba Scum: Hopeless1der, Promethelax, possibly Kush SK: possibly Kush, possibly mkfuba. However, upon reading risk.nuke and not getting the town vibe I had earlier, that throws a wrench in my plans. I was confident enough to lynch you if risk.nuke is town. However, with the possibility that he is scum, that screws up the possible scumteam. You and he seem unlikely scum together. Either of you could be scum with Hopeless1der. However, he is not my strongest scumread based on playstyle alone. Add to that that any of the ones in the greenish gray group could be scum as well and there are too many unknowns. That group needs culling. So yes. No-lynch. Killing an SK takes KP out of the equation. The SK may be aimed at scum, but it's like a vig. Good chance he misses his shot and hits a townie instead. Taking that out of the equation is safer for us (as well as scum). | ||
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On November 06 2012 04:33 Promethelax wrote: Acro: is thrawn just in your town list because of his claim? If not what else has made him look townie to you? Did you read my list post at night? Nothing much has changed since then. That is rather shocking, as I hoped he would participate more. I haven't actually paid much attention to him. Why do you think he's not town? | ||
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However, if everybody is opposed to a no-lynch then lets find a lynch candidate. I am not convinced by DP. Someone please address the points I made regarding him earlier. He is one of the few players who has put some effort into pressuring and scumhunting. | ||
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On November 06 2012 05:24 kushm4sta wrote: His scumminess can be explained by inactivity. I see someone who doesnt have time to figure things out. All he can do is follow the game. Then when someone misrepresents his meta it's easy to write a lot because he doesn't have to think about it. But he's not writing a lot about the game because he just doesn't know. Holy crap. Kush makes sense. | ||
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On November 06 2012 05:53 thrawn2112 wrote: Acro how are you so sure there's an sk? The lack of a vig claim? Yes. And the improbability of a vig shooting Zealos. | ||
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I didn't have a scumread on him. That is actually a giant towntell on Zealos, as I mentioned in my nightpost. I needed more to get him out of null, but was hardly surprised by him flipping town (although I was surprised by him being killed. All he had in his filter was a wish for Prome and Kush to die). | ||
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On November 06 2012 05:58 thrawn2112 wrote: why do you think an sk would shoot zealos? different reasons than a vig? aren't they both shooting scum? I doubt zealos was a sk intentional blue-snipe Don't really want to speculate about NKs as it leads to giant wifom. However, if you want, I expect scum was simply shooting at someone who was fairly townie, but no chance of protection: Zealos. Mattchew got shot by the SK for being a veteran. | ||
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On November 06 2012 05:58 HiroPro wrote: If a SK is present in the game, town must eliminate both the SK and all mafia in order to win. And scum? | ||
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What is scum's wincon in the presence of an SK? Well, Drazak, if the game OUTRIGHT ends when scum outnumber town, then we are playing a different game from if we can go to a 3-3-1 situation without outright losing. If in that 3-3-1 situation the SK votes with town for a scumster, then SK and scum eliminate each other and finally town lynch the last scum, we actually win. However, if scum wins the moment they equal town's number, then the SK's chances of winning are far smaller... as are, unfortunately, town's. | ||
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The whole DP bandwagon stinks and is reinforcing my opinion that Prom is probably scum. In fact, he is playing a very similar scumgame to my own scumplay: look townie and make damned good elaborate cases. It's just so damned hard to nail a player like that down (look at Marv and my own unbeaten scum records). Anyway, if people don't want a no-lynch, then I am back on Prom. ##unvote no-lynch ##vote Promethelax | ||
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I am totally behind a Promethelax lynch, and to a lesser extent Hopeless1der. Anything else I cannot get behind at the moment unless you find the mother of all scumslips. The case Prom made on DP reads convincingly, however scum can easily pick at the weak spots of a player, because they never have to consider he is also town. Prom jumped on DP out of fucking nowhere. He was ALL over fuba, but that didn't gain traction, so BLAM, monster case on DP. Here is what Prom had to say about DP just a little bit before the case: On November 06 2012 03:25 Promethelax wrote: Do you really feel that lynching the SK would be beneficial to us? I really don't want to lynch into confirmed KP which, assuming the SK isn't retarded is aiming at scum. Are you, Acro, really so unsure of your scum reads that you want to no lynch? You have been pretty confidant all game that I am scum, why drop it now in favour of a no lynch? In asking Muso for reads I 1) did think he was likely to flip town at that point, his lynch had been pushed through too easily and 2) assumed that if he was scum and had made the worst scum play in ever he might post reads too. In LC DP was scum and Fuba was town. Both have flipped on their LC meta. Fuba is not as bad a player as he is showing in this game and he doesn't give himself apologetics as town. Why the sudden change of heart? | ||
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On November 06 2012 06:26 DarthPunk wrote: Lynching prom is a terrible idea. You're implying that lynching you is a better idea than lynching Prom? Sounds like a guilty conscience. | ||
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On November 06 2012 06:31 kushm4sta wrote: I'm here and reading. If prome is scum, why would he risk his claim to take my heat off acro? As with anything, to score brownie points with the likes of you. Cannot score too many brownie points, of course, or you end up lynching scum all the time. However, the chance of him getting a lynch on me going, even with your flavour support, was rather absent. I do agree that it is weird, because you were also distracting pretty much everybody with your flow of inane flavour speculation. That alone is worth gold to scum. Let me think that bit over. | ||
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On November 06 2012 06:46 risk.nuke wrote: Yeah, then why did you refuse to make yourself and your opinions known when specifically requested several times. Right now you smell like last minute show-up-to-vote. Granted both townies and scum can do it but it sure as hell isn't something that makes you look townie in my eyes. To be fair, he HAS done that in the last few pages. Shit just moved fast. I was going to jump on him for his Drazak vote, but then I realized he had posted that he wants to lynch Drazak, just half a page back. GG. Good try at baiting scum, though, thrawn. | ||
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On November 06 2012 06:49 thrawn2112 wrote: the mylo status is completely dependent on there being a sk right? and no vig claim = sk? any vig that wants to make sure we know if we're not in mylo? With HiroPro's explanation we are not in mylo regardless of the SK being present or not. | ||
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For the moment, I have to admit that Prom is putting up one hell of a fight and I am feeling his lynch less and less. The bit where he prevents Kush from shitting up the thread is bugging me. Hopeless1der, however... Lets add to my previous case: he's gone afk again. Does not seem to care 2 hoots about who gets lynched. Prom clearly does. My earlier accusation that he was trying to make anything stick as long as it wasn't him can equally be explained that he really cares about lynching scum. Give me some time to think about this. But what do you (everybody) think of Hopeless1der? My earlier case generated very little attention. Let me repeat it: On November 05 2012 23:54 Acrofales wrote: Not much to go on for Hopeless1der. I will thus make the case both ways, as I did for Muso. On Muso I felt the town case was stronger (as I said at the time). This time I am leaning towards scum: The case for Hopeless1der The scum mindset Why grudgingly? Why would a townie grudgingly admit to knowing something about a fellow townie that exculpates him. Would this not be a good thing? However, from a scum viewpoint, it makes sense: he does not want to admit that Kush derps pretty consistently, but feels compelled by the general direction of the game, and the need to make a good impression at the start of it to grudgingly admit to this information. Regarding Muso: At this point all Muso had done wrong, as far as anybody knew was lie about his experience in the game. If a mason claimed to be his partner, then his claim would be more believable than mine. However, hopeless wants to go ahead and lynch him REGARDLESS of any further developments. Now, hopeless may be a townie making an error of judgement and believing my claim unconditionally. However, at this point I see no real reason to say we should lynch Muso regardless unless you're scum and want to push strongly for that townie lynch. At this point, my claim was by far the more believable one (as evidenced by everybody voting Muso), so he picked Muso to bandwagon on, rather than me. Suspicious minds would say that you are paying way too close attention to the wording and that you are, in fact, bluehunting. I thought this was worth mentioning, because the tone rubbed me the wrong way at the time. I am still not quite sure why though. If I had to say, it is because Hopeless seems to be puzzling rather hard over whether my claim means I'm claiming VT or not. Something townies shouldn't be worried about (except that Kush got everybody riled up about it). The OMGUS Now I think that Muso did not word himself properly here, but his main point was that hopeless1der was unwilling to even consider the possibility that Muso was town. Hopeless skipped right over that part and made a jump of bad logic: Muso knows he'll flip town and is talking about AFTER his death, when everybody else will know he flipped town too. He thinks Prom is scum and Hopeless is trying to keep the lynch focused on Muso to protect his scumbuddy. However, regardless of what Prom flips, he urges us to look into Hopeless. The mere fact that Hopeless is unwilling to consider a town Muso is what he is finding scummy. This is indeed scummy behaviour. Hopeless' way of dealing with this is to discredit it and OMGUS someone who is already about to die anyway. He shows absolutely NO willingness to even consider the possibility that Muso is town. That may be because he already knows Muso is town and he has absolutely no reason to reconsider his thoughts given the rather large amounts of new information. The lurk After 18 hours of inactivity (all through the night, I might add, which is when scum is busy deciding whom to shoot in their own little QT) we get: This is an utterly useless post, which just emphasizes his lurkiness. I don't see this as "too bold to be scum". People had noticed his absense and were commenting on it. He needed to say something about it. This is all we get. Since then his activity has been limited to a rather bad meta-case against Promethelax, and a throwaway statement that he wants to lynch Drazak. If anything they feel like testers: if somebody bites and starts ramping up a case against Release or Drazak, he is ready to jump on it. However, he is completely noncommittal and happy to do no scumhunting of his own. This also ties into his earlier behaviour (see below): he showed commitment and activity in the game, but once people started reading him as town (me in my night post, for instance), he dropped off the map. Also, lets not forget Mattchew[/green's opinion. Mattchew is actually a pretty good scumhunter, despite him claiming otherwise, and it is always a good idea to listen to what he says (although moreso when he's scum ) The case for Hopeless1der Keeping discussion from derailing Why would scum be afraid of kush running rampant with his crazy theory. Fake claming seems particularly easy.. and all that is needed to placate Kush is a silly VT claim like Paint Bucket or Boulder if push really comes to shove and town starts mass claiming. And that's assuming scum isn't given a list of safeclaims in the first place (a fairly common thing for normal games). However, as town, this whole discussion was a giant distraction from what we should have been doing: scumhunting. Hopeless seems to be trying to keep the town on track. Keeping promises Too often scum make a promise to be active and then forget about it. It's one of the things I like to look for when reading filters. Hopeless makes a promise and delivers on it. This put him on my town list initially, as it shows a certain consistency. Not a big tell, though, especially given his later behaviour. See above. + Show Spoiler [Hopeless1der's promise] + On November 01 2012 12:19 Hopeless1der wrote: Well, I haven't properly commented on you yet Release. Based on what I've seen, really scummy push against kush. However, I'm going to read those newbie games you posted seeing as I was in two of them and then come back to this. We'll see how some meta analysis holds up. Also, I doubt I get that done tonight since I need to be up really early for work; Going to bed in a bit so I'll post my findings in an approximate 15 hours from now. 15 hours later: On November 02 2012 02:56 Hopeless1der wrote: Release's first game ever on TL, opening post[green]Town: + Show Spoiler + On May 22 2012 09:08 Release wrote: You say that you are for a vote, but you state that your other vote was luck based. Considering you said "very luck based", doesn't that mean to say that we are not going to experience the same luck? If we don't experience the same luck, we will very much end up lynching a townie, which makes your "for a vote" seem like you want to lynch a townie. Also, why are you talking about the last game? You should be more concerned with this game and find out ways for pointing out scum rather than ways not to. This seems more like filler. The useful part of your post can be summarized by: We should have a lynch today. A no-lynch would be detrimental. ##FOS: Mordanis Fairly similar to his attack on kush this game. 2nd game Town, he spends most of the game tunneling grush. Way more 1-liners, inconclusive to the current situation 3rd game Vig, he gets in my face pretty early, but generally tried to keep talking. Also cited activity issues due to school? 4th game Town, + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 08:58 Release wrote: I think YourHarry is Grush's new alias. Ignoring the copy-pasted policy stuff for now, Why on earth did you even post that scenario stuff about a VT fake-claiming a DT or blue? There was absolutely no indication that anyone had even planned on that (especially considering you had the first post). If anything, you have just shown people something they can do (to the detriment of the town). And why go through the casework? It's just fluff and you know it. This is very much a post looking like a contribution, while being a non-contribution, or even an anti-contribution. Im pretty sure, again, that no one was even remotely close to voting in a way to force a nolynch. I love the bolded line; you could have kept this post simple and concise. But you decided to make it "super-duper long." ##vote: Lazermonkey Yourharry, you should do more than OMGUS. You are definitely rivaling, for scumminess, against lazer. Fos: yourharry Fos: lazermonkey Keep in mind, he's already spent a game tunneling grush, from what I can tell, it was related to fake-claims. Opens with hostility and a vote. To be fair, I don't think he's ever rolled scum, but his jumping out of the gate fighting looks like hes town yet again. He's never played with kush before. He also explained that he expects people to NOT derp all over the thread when they post here: + Show Spoiler + On November 01 2012 10:09 Release wrote: well, you were assigning Mason traits to the miller, which led to the confusion that it did between who should claim. Also, you didn't mention mason but the "town who can talk to each other." You avoided saying mason. Mason is clear. "town who can talk to each other" could be mason, but could be miller if someone assumed you were talking about who YOU thought "could talk to each other." Mafia is a game in which posts can't be editted. People tend to check their posts for any dubious or tentative information. I highly doubt that you "mixed up" their names because things like that tend to get checked, which leads me to believe you said such things on purpose. I wasn't talking about the mass claim. That was rather obvious. Sadly, kush is unable to meet that requirement. My "meta" read is that this strong aggression is in fact representative of town release. Keeping in mind that there are no scum games to compare with, I'm not willing to vote Release for his posts against kush. i also agree with this from Zealos: I think I have a handle on this mason claim shitfest. I'm rereading this through more carefully because I just kind of glanced the thread over, but I think I'm going to be voting Muso in a moment. Incidentally, I also liked the content of this post as it agreed rather largely with what I found based on Release's meta. However, scum has an easy time making town reads look right, because they already know that the player is town. He responded. That can be found in his filter, which is short and I urge you to read in any case. | ||
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On November 06 2012 06:59 drazak wrote: I tried to call nuke out for it and nobody listened to me I keep thinking the same thing you do. And then he makes another post that puts him back on my town list. He might be playing scum like Mattchew does, though. Aggressive, abrupt and decisive. I don't know his scum meta well enough to say anything much more about it. I don't think risk.nuke is a good lynch candidate for today, though. | ||
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On November 06 2012 07:02 kushm4sta wrote: dp sprung to action as soon as the bandwagon on him was forming in him. That is scum lurking. Not if he said BEFOREHAND that he was going to sleep and would wake up for the last few hours before the deadline. Shit people, stop jumping at shadows when the answer has already been given. | ||
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On November 06 2012 07:05 Promethelax wrote: + Show Spoiler + On November 06 2012 07:01 Acrofales wrote: Yeah, easy there However, I do need to head home. Hopefully I'll be there for the lynch. For the moment, I have to admit that Prom is putting up one hell of a fight and I am feeling his lynch less and less. The bit where he prevents Kush from shitting up the thread is bugging me. Hopeless1der, however... Lets add to my previous case: he's gone afk again. Does not seem to care 2 hoots about who gets lynched. Prom clearly does. My earlier accusation that he was trying to make anything stick as long as it wasn't him can equally be explained that he really cares about lynching scum. Give me some time to think about this. But what do you (everybody) think of Hopeless1der? My earlier case generated very little attention. Let me repeat it: He responded. That can be found in his filter, which is short and I urge you to read in any case. Yeah, I'll be writing up the Acro case before this day is over. He just called me townie and left his vote on me saying he might not be here before the lynch. He also mentioned earlier how he plays scum, by looking like a strong townie and making huge cases. I'll be doing the full filter dive but I'll be watching the thread too. Guys, Vote either Fuba or Acro. That is where my vote will be today with two other consolidation options. I haven't left yet. I'm still deciding whether you are exonerated. I'd also rather lynch you than no-lynch seeing as we are not at mylo. However, if I am not alone, I think Hopeless is a better choice right now. | ||
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##unvote ##vote Hopeless1der | ||
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FUCK YEAH. Nailed that one. | ||
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Of course he can still be an SK, but that doesn't mean he was not being dumb: an SK knows equally little about the scumteam as the rest of us. A framer is not a possibility I don't think. Gonna check the high-blue-role setup again. Of course, another option is both Thrawn and Kush being scum, but I am still leaning town on Thrawn. Have a lot of new info to analyze, though. | ||
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On November 06 2012 08:18 Promethelax wrote: ebwop: did I NOT hammer him? don't you lump me in with Draz who jumped a vote he had already made. I hammered the bastard and made sure people stayed on him. On the one hand, yes. On the other hand, it could be a last minute bus. Will have to take a closer look at that. Draz, however, is definitely looking terrible for that, roflol. | ||
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On November 06 2012 08:22 DarthPunk wrote: This is not C9++ so don't rely to heavily on the mafiascum wiki page. It is only based on c9++ If I understood my PMs with bugs well enough he only really changed some roles around to make it more interesting. I really doubt he changed a roleblocker or a goon for a framer. | ||
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On November 06 2012 08:24 kushm4sta wrote: dp why are you suspecting me I'm confirmed town bro Said the serial killer? | ||
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On November 06 2012 08:28 kushm4sta wrote: yesss draz claim! @prome so I am your second lynch lol.... you realize that now that godfather died I'm like confirmrd town right Which part of framer or SK do you NOT understand. You have been playing so horribly scummy all game long... it's just stunning what you can get away with. However, if you are town then that green check is a super-blessing. | ||
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On November 06 2012 07:11 drazak wrote: My penis has been there for awhile kush This is Drazak confirming that he is voting for Hopeless, however vulgar his affirmation is. This is 4! fucking minutes before he deadline: On November 06 2012 07:56 drazak wrote: Fuck it, I don't think hope is mafia. Okay. Lets say we believe you for a second ##unvote ##vote prom we need a lynch though [blue]What the hell is this then? How in the world did you think a Prom lynch had any hope of happening?[blue] And then this: On November 06 2012 07:58 drazak wrote: I'm scum because I'm not sure about a lurker lynch? k, whatever. ##unvote ##vote hopeless1der you better hope he comes up red or else I'm cominga t you dp I can make no sense of this play. What in the world is this shit? Please explain yourself CAREFULLY and in DETAIL. Your explanation so far has been a defense of why you voted for him earlier. Not this bonkers play. | ||
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Yo Release! When you get back here, mind telling us how Hopeless being the godfather affects your entire connection dealio? | ||
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On November 06 2012 08:44 drazak wrote: I knew he'd be hammered, not sure how a no lynch helps scum here. I wanted him to talk and be more active which is why I parked the vote on him originally, as soon as I saw the meeting post I didn't like it, if he had time to defend himself I'm sure he would have, assuming he's town You knew WHO would get hammered? I am starting to believe the people saying this was a scum move. At first I thought it was just an incredibly DUMB move. Scum KNOWS they're not supposed to do this and therefore don't do this. I've also seen town pull this kind of shenanigans, when they get last-minute jitters. It's why last-minute bandwagons are risky. However, there was NO way you could know he would get hammered and even if you knew that, why the hell jump off... and subsequently back on again? If it was some kind of "principal" thing like Kush claims for his own jump, what changed your mind in those 2 minutes? @DP: I want to hear Drazak's thoughts to see if they are coherent. As I said... town CAN pull this kind of shenanigans. I want to figure out what this is. Also, Drazak and Kush, bffs? Kush, what do you make of Drazak's vote shenanigans? | ||
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On November 06 2012 08:54 Promethelax wrote: Sorry for triple post: Acro could you link me to the site you are using to look up the set up information? I have some ideas I want to check. Thanks. http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9++ | ||
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On November 06 2012 08:54 mkfuba07 wrote: I don't know why, but something about draz is making me think he's actually town. Doesn't it seem like a really stupid move to pull that shit after having your vote parked on him all day? Like, I feel like his plan as scum would have been to bus hope, so why would he pull that shit right around the deadline? It would have been his whole purpose behind voting hope in the first place? Does that make sense? That one's easy. Park your vote on your scumbuddy who isn't going to get lynched anyway... until "oh shit, he's getting lynched", panic and unvote. | ||
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Also, Risk didn't strictly hammer. He placed his vote on the guy who was already getting lynched: he consolidated and ensured last-minute shenanigans were impossible. Here's the history: Hopeless sits at 5 votes: drazak, kushm4sta, Acrofales, mkfuba07, DarthPunk Pretty much simultaneously: kush unvotes and Prom votes. I believe Prom thought he was sealing the deal. Hopeless still at 5 votes: drazak, Acrofales, mkfuba07, DarthPunk, Promethelax Kushm4sta hammers (in non-bolded text), Hopeless is gonna get lynched. Thrawn also hammers, 7 votes on Hopeless. Drazak unvotes. In actual fact this unvote is COMPLETELY pointless. However, I doubt that he actually knew that at the time, given his behaviour. After this, Risk votes and Drazak revotes. Finally Kush jumps off again. Man, I love this train. Either that was a fucking professional bus by Prom and Thrawn or they are town. I am obviously town. To some extent, I also like mkfuba in the deal, but less than Prom and Thrawn. Imho the vote says nothing about DP or risk. Drazak in particular looks like scum from this. Kush is just another layer on weird bullcrap in his already weird bullcrap play. The real problem is going to be finding the SK in this. Release is an option for not giving a flying fuck. However, everybody looking townie in this deal could also be an SK, because I think we already established that the SK should be playing with town today. | ||
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On November 06 2012 09:31 kushm4sta wrote: But drazak never pretended to want to lynch him. It was always a vote to pressure him out of afk. I don't see the scum motivation for taking your vote off like that. Scum would also not draw attention to themselves in quite so obvious a way. Any scum would have left their vote on hopeless, because it was pretty clear hopeless was going to be lynched anyway. As soon as all those people voted hopeless at once it was pretty clear that he was the lynch. Town doesn't have their vote on someone they don't want to kill 4 minutes before the deadline in a very contested race. You cannot tell me that Drazak had his vote there, but was just too careless to take it off in favour of someone he felt WAS scummy. His vote was there because he wanted to make it look like he wanted to kill Hopeless1der. Except when push came to shove he suddenly didn't want to kill Hopeless1der anymore. Scum doesn't act that stupid. Except they do. Risen pulled that crap in some game (look in the award thread). He was called too dumb to be scum and coasted by on that to an easy scum victory. However, town get last-second jitters too. My main problem is that Drazak is not explaining his thought process. A town voteswitch would be able to say what was their reasoning. Drazak has NOT explained how he went from "lynch", "wait whoops no, lets not" back to "yeah, lets lynch" in the space of 2 minutes. | ||
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On November 06 2012 09:43 kushm4sta wrote: People are going to say this is confirmation bias, but if you look for the golden moment when a scum would likely bus on the bandwagon timeline that acro layed out for us, it's right around dp. It's why I have DP as null from the vote. It was when the wagon was already rolling, but early enough to not look suspicious. However, town jumps on at that time too. You should just keep in mind that the mere fact of him being on the wagon does not mean he's town. It doesn't make him scum automatically either. | ||
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On November 06 2012 09:46 DarthPunk wrote: I don't agree with your conclusions. I think the only person that gets any town cred from this lynch is prom for pushing the lynch onto others so hard. Thrawn and risk had to hammer because they were being called out on it by prom and would have looked terribad had they not sealed a lynch. Kush and draz both derailed things in their own special ways. Aside from prom MAYBE Mkfuba gets some cred for voting with the initial rush and helping create a scum lynch out of thin air. Maybe. All in all your analysis is poor IMO. Lol. I believe you're forgetting me for getting it started in the first place, but draw the conclusions you will. I just posted mine. Not saying they are the ONLY way of interpreting the vote. I get a green vibe on thrawn from that. And a slightly green vibe on mkfuba. PS. I dedicate the kill to Mattchew and Muso. Two players who knew what was up when they died for the cause | ||
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On November 06 2012 09:48 drazak wrote: what, I explained my thought process, I don't think it's fair to lynch someone on a lurker lynch and then see a post about being in meetings or busy all day, I don't think that's a cool thing to do. Then how do you explain the "but lets not no-lynch" with a vote on Prom... at 4 minutes before the deadline. That's what I mainly don't understand. Also, how did you think it suddenly WAS fair to do that lynch 2 minutes later? | ||
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On November 06 2012 09:57 drazak wrote: I would have unvoted earlier if he had checked into the thread earlier. So you are okay with killing an inactive, but not with killing someone who jumps into the thread at crunch time when he is about to get lynched?! Lol. This logic. | ||
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Jailers/medics: draw your own conclusions. Not giving scum any more of a list to kill into than the incredibly obvious one they already have. Vigis and SK: now is your chance to kill scum! Shoot the crap out of Drazak. Cops: draw your own conclusions. We may have a framer on the loose. Pick someone who is not Drazak and you think might be scum. Roleblockers: not sure. Drazak is an obvious choice, but maybe too obvious. Imho go for your second-highest scum read (assuming you're not braindead and have Drazak as your first scum read). And yes, I know it's pretty unlikely to have those roles, but some might still be possible, so throwing all advice out there. Note the presence of the SK in this list. You really should still be helping town. You have hidden well and if you keep this up, it'll be hard to find you, especially when we're still hunting down a scum as well. I for one will prioritize finding scum over you, especially if you help us out by blowing Drazak up. | ||
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On November 06 2012 10:53 thrawn2112 wrote: acro, if we catch an sk what do we do with them? assume that catch = confirmed, just hypothetically Well, at some point the SK has to die for town to win. However, at the moment I have no quibbles with an SK who uses his KP to help town and will put minimal effort into hunting him while I can still hunt scum. Does that answer your question? | ||
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On November 06 2012 13:25 Promethelax wrote: So, right after lynch you thought I looked scummy. Even when you knew exactly what my actions were. Now that you look back and notice that town think I am town for my play I look townie. Remember after lynch when you said and you were pretty up in the air right after lynch. Just walk me through your thought process before and after, why was I scummy at first and afterwards I was super duper pro-town as green as the claimed cop? Also your read of Kush looking more innocent for his voting. I don't get it, explain like I'm retarded. Thanks. As you may have surmised by my absense in the thread, I left after my vote. Upon my return I wanted mostly to just read to see the flip and skimmed the previous posts. In that time, the general impression I had gotten from you was given by these posts: On November 06 2012 07:28 Promethelax wrote: Sorry, I'm writing up my case on Acro. Seriously are we, as a town, sheeping onto a lurker here in d2? Someone who isn't acro had better have a case written. This is bad play. Get yourselves together and at least post a reason for your vote besides the fact that he isn't here to defend himself and is therefore an easy lynch to push through. On November 06 2012 07:35 Promethelax wrote: Where the fuck did you all go? We were having a real involved thread there for a while and now everyone is on the lurker lynch and so convinced of it that they vanish. Leaving me and DP to slum around alone together. The hell... This is reluctance to vote for Hopeless1der. I would even go so far as to call it a soft defense: I interpret it as "he's a lurker, yes, but that's no reason to kill him now". Obviously that changed, and upon closer analysis your behaviour seems more inline with someone who cared about the lynch, would have preferred to lynch someone else at first, but when no other lynch was possible MUCH preferred a lynch on Hopeless1der than a no-lynch. That does not seem like scum behaviour, in fact, quite the opposite. Is it possible you are scum, thought it over, figured he probably couldn't be saved anyway with risk and thrawn still voting and decided to use the lynch for brownie points? Yes. But it's so unlikely that I'm letting you cash in those brownie points and calling you town over this. SK never made sense for you: all the main bits of my case against you are "prior knowledge" problems, which an SK doesn't have, so my reading not-scum equates to town. Regarding Kush: I did a little thought experiment where I put myself in Kush's shoes. Assume Kush is town. We know he's absolutely obsessed by flavour. It is possible that he really was swayed by that claim. He unvoted because of it. Then peer pressure bullied him back on. When his vote was no longer needed, he jumped ship again. Does this sound like something Kush could do? To me it does. Does this mean Kush is town? No. It just means that for Kush, I can think up a plausible townie explanation, while for Drazak I am not seeing a single way of making sense of it from a town viewpoint. Sure, his voting is inconclusive, but his utter lack of ability to explain it afterwards is what is really bugging me. I also cannot forget On November 06 2012 06:39 drazak wrote: I don't want to vote for prom but I will if it means a lynch, I think he's town and anyone who thinks otherwise is probably scum ( At the time I just prayed everybody ignored it, because a wagon on someone for a stupid post like this is what lynches town more often than scum. However, I don't think we can ignore the fact that this post just absolutely reeks of newbie scum. By far the easiest way of reading it is scum trying to jibe his earlier assertions that Prom is town with the need to actually vote for him to make a lynch happen. At the time, a vote based on this would've been really bad. However, taken with the rest of the evidence it's pretty much Drazak claiming scum both before the vote and at the vote. Regarding your role advice: <snip> My own advice to blues: JK(also take a look at the rb column): you know who to choose between. The guys who look really townie. We're in a decent spot right now so just get out here and do your best. Cop: check someone you have a red read on. BC your check and save it, we're lynching Draz tomrrow whatever check you get on anyone so assuming you have more ability to check (not a 1 off) use it n3 and reveal as soon as d3 starts the results of both your checks. SK/Vig knocking out scum is where it is at, Draz is a good choice. Even if he isn't scum (unlikely, I know) the thread will be more conducive to a scum hunt next day with him gone. SK, your best bet is to work with town, esspesially if you took check immune, get scum and you'll be fine. RB (or JK if you want to go this way): RB Draz, we have a confirmed scum who may be an active power role (RB or Framer) don' let him use his role and don't let mafia use him for the kill because he would be too obvious to RB. Mafia: you should consider using your kill on Draz, that will throw us into WIFOM and it will hurt town sooooooooooo much. Acro: now that you have a town read on me (I think) what do you make of my RB claim. I think that matt probably saved his 1-shot and that mafia has a RB, thoughts? Alright, I'm out again for a while. I'll be back well before dawn though, no worries. Mafia having a RB seems very plausible. They might have gotten a whiff of blue on you based on your secretive roleclaim. Zealos jailing me because he had a townread on you makes sense as well. As for our own RBers, that's the only advice we differ on. RBers should really keep the wifom alive. Blocking the scum kill is far more important than blocking whatever role Drazak might have. I urge RBers to draw their own conclusion about second-guessing scum and who will perform the hit. | ||
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On November 06 2012 15:10 Release wrote: If someone can give me a good reason to post my acro (case) thing now, I'll probably do so, but as of now, i don't see any particular reason for doing so. I'll get the thing up tomorrow closer to the resolution period (7am PDT, not that much closer). Hold me accountable to these figures to prove that i have done it already: (from MS word) 6843 words 32068 characters (w/o spaces) 38628 characters (w/ spaces) Yeah, go ahead and wait til the deadline. I don't think your case has much immediate urgency. Looking forward to a page full of LOL. | ||
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As for the dichotomy, it entirely 100% covers all cases. I just posted the 4 possible situations (discounting SK, who for all intents and purposes has the same information as town at that point). If you feel the conclusions I draw from one of them is wrong (namely, as you indicate, that I am scum and was pulling the bluff of the century), you are free to say so. You're wrong, btw. Now a bit more about the cases. I'm not going to claim my case on Hopeless1der was terribly strong. At the time I wasn't actually planning on voting with it. It was more an update of my findings, because earlier I had listed Hopeless1der as reading townie and I found that I no longer did so. It was more a case to gather feedback and spark discussion than a "lets lynch Hopeless" case at the time. However, as time went on I found Prom looking slightly less scummy. My entire thought process is layed out in the thread: I even wanted to no-lynch at one point, because nobody was talking, I was not feeling secure enough about Prom anymore and I thought it was mylo. When people came back and started talking and I learned it wasn't mylo, I figured Prom was back on the table. However, the longer the discussion with Prom (and the other people active at the time) went, the less I felt a Prom lynch. My only alternative at that time was Hopeless1der, whose defense I was not particularly happy with (I could explain it post-hoc, but what's the point, he flipped scum). Why were you off the table at the time? 1. Your case on Kush, with connections and all that jazz. It seemed too farfetched to be some crazyness made up by scum. 2. The main point of my case on you was based on a misunderstanding. 3. Your defense seemed adequate at the time. I presume that explains my thought process enough? You still haven't really said what you think of Drazak. You agree that he needs to be killed asap? | ||
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The options are that he is town, and SK or framed. However, Kush's behaviour at the vote is not indicative of SK. Thus it cannot be used as evidence except for a "framed scum". Luckily, we have that part pretty easy. The OP says framers can't frame themselves. We find the second scum member first (cases incoming after action deadline) and if he's a framer then Kush could be scum. Otherwise, Kush may still be the SK based on the rest of his behaviour, but it's impossible that he's scum. | ||
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On November 07 2012 03:49 Promethelax wrote: Because that isn't the first instance of you posting my thoughts before I post them. Townie mindset. Well there are 3 or 4 hours left. Throw one together. Be afraid to die. SK hunting is not just townie. Scum should be looking for the SK at this point too. If not to shoot him now, then at least to be able to push a lynch onto him and get some town credit. | ||
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On November 07 2012 05:19 Promethelax wrote: Already sent in my absentee ballot. Don't you worry. Kush, Acro didn't claim vt, just his Name, though you are right I should have remembered to put him on the list. Acro, I wasn't saying that particular thought of Risk's made his mindset seem townie. There have been a number of occasions when he has said essentially exactly what I wanted to say. This was one of those times. My last post will be in about 1.5 hours. I think my reads are pretty clear and since that is before the action deadline I don't want to just give scum a big list of exactly what they want to know. I want input on this though, is it more beneficial to town for me to give my full list of reads before the action deadline or to not post them at all unless I survive until d3. I am generally in favour of posting, even if it runs the risk of changing scum actions. Don't out blues or anything stupid like that, but your scumreads and townreads are good to have. Of course, the best time is after the action deadline. | ||
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On November 07 2012 05:44 Release wrote: + Show Spoiler + On November 07 2012 03:22 Acrofales wrote: Okay... Release. We have established that you don't like my style of writing cases. Is there anything that you actually find scummy, rather than unlikeable? As for the dichotomy, it entirely 100% covers all cases. I just posted the 4 possible situations (discounting SK, who for all intents and purposes has the same information as town at that point). If you feel the conclusions I draw from one of them is wrong (namely, as you indicate, that I am scum and was pulling the bluff of the century), you are free to say so. You're wrong, btw. Now a bit more about the cases. I'm not going to claim my case on Hopeless1der was terribly strong. At the time I wasn't actually planning on voting with it. It was more an update of my findings, because earlier I had listed Hopeless1der as reading townie and I found that I no longer did so. It was more a case to gather feedback and spark discussion than a "lets lynch Hopeless" case at the time. However, as time went on I found Prom looking slightly less scummy. My entire thought process is layed out in the thread: I even wanted to no-lynch at one point, because nobody was talking, I was not feeling secure enough about Prom anymore and I thought it was mylo. When people came back and started talking and I learned it wasn't mylo, I figured Prom was back on the table. However, the longer the discussion with Prom (and the other people active at the time) went, the less I felt a Prom lynch. My only alternative at that time was Hopeless1der, whose defense I was not particularly happy with (I could explain it post-hoc, but what's the point, he flipped scum). Why were you off the table at the time? 1. Your case on Kush, with connections and all that jazz. It seemed too farfetched to be some crazyness made up by scum. 2. The main point of my case on you was based on a misunderstanding. 3. Your defense seemed adequate at the time. I presume that explains my thought process enough? You still haven't really said what you think of Drazak. You agree that he needs to be killed asap? About the nonconclusive case about Muso? That was just putting your thoughts out too? The "not strong" is partly my point about your cases: You don't hold yourself particularly accountable to them. Compare youself to risk: He's extremely terse but every post at least has something fairly concrete about it. Your posts are pretty much the opposite (except for the case against me) which brings me to: the case against me: The main point about the case against me is that you made a definitive Release is scum with no "maybe a townie too." Your other posts do not have the same conclusiveness. I don't feel that he needs to be killed asap. However, he still has not given any reasoning for his posts. If he posts nothing before the resolution period (he might be busy, and boy does he not like kills based on irl stuff getting in the way), then he needs to be killed. So essentially, i'm fine with a Drazak kill that gets sent in 1 minute before the deadline (given he doesnt post...) I am perfectly accountable for my cases. I read prplhz as scummy scum. I tunneled Prom for 1 1/2 cycles over it, reading him over and over. When I finally laid off and read you, I thought I found something that trumped everything so far. It was wrong, but I was absolutely running with it until I realized it didn't jibe with the actual votecount at the end of the day, which made me look at timestamps. That kicked the trump card out from underneath the case, but at the time I was 100% convinced by it. The Muso case: I said at the time that I had a slight TOWN read on him based on the whole ordeal, but my town read wasn't strong enough. It was also not so much a case as a summary of my thoughts. When I make a case I am 100% convinced and don't bullshit around with a "case for town". Those posts are to gather responses and allow me to make up my mind. Cases happen when I HAVE made up my mind (there's one coming in the nightpost, don't worry your pretty little head too much). I still can't make much sense of the last paragraph, so ignoring it. A nightpost is incoming (it is written already). On November 07 2012 05:57 Release wrote: I wasn't there at the voting deadline because I was at school. Had i been there, i would probably have voted for Hopeless when he came back to the thread and didn't defend himself. However, i would have switched to promethelax after a lynch against Hope was secured. It's just how i roll. My top three scum right now are: Prome, Acro, and Kush. However, Drazak will shoot to the top if he does not provide a tenable response before the deadline. My reaction to the lynch: Got a scum so we live for another day. That's good. Hope had been pretty silent all game and he seemed to have planned some scumslips (in hindsight ofc). It seems like he was bussed by Acro (to me, although no one seems to share that view). + Show Spoiler + Just because he is scum is not a reason for us to want to ignore everything he says: at the time he was certainly going to die and he should be thinking that his words would be considered with disdain at best (aka not considered seriously). Not to say that this is entirely trustworthy, but Hope makes this case work and Acro get's off free as an impossible scum. Here, I'll help you out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ockham's_razor Question: why does Drazerk have to post before the daypost? Does it make any difference whether he posts today or tomorrow? If he dies we see his flip anyway, so that can't be it. | ||
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On November 07 2012 06:29 drazak wrote: I'm sorry guys, I just got really frustrated with you guys, I'm town, yes I flip flopped my vote around, but there's no possibly scum motive there, it's just town who didn't want a mislynch. I've been honest with you the whole time. get off my fucking back please. How did you think voting Prom was going to result in anything other than a no-lynch? | ||
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You say his excuse is what triggered your unvote. Please explain that better. | ||
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On November 07 2012 06:52 drazak wrote: I don't like lynching people who might not deserve the lynch. Okay. Why is someone who goes completely offline for 14 hours deserving of the lynch, while someone who shows up 15 minutes before the deadline is not. Honestly, the latter guy is far more likely to be scum. Town is, on the whole, more likely to lose interest in the game. | ||
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On November 07 2012 06:51 kushm4sta wrote: are there questions people want me to address? if so restate them and I will answer anything. Why are people not thinking dp is scummy. Prome you said he wasn't scummy anymore.why the fuck is that? because he came back right as I was trying to form a bandwagon on him? now he is just saying lynch draz gg and not even trying to scumhunt elsewhere or consider draz might be town. Summary: why don't you think draz is scum because he totally is. Interesting, you have an opinion that doesn't seem to be based on flavour. Why do you think DP is scummy? | ||
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+ Show Spoiler [play by play] + D1: he votes Musho and never changes off him. No use at all. Not much of an analysis on Release, but some. Clears him as acting townie. Soft defends Promethelax. Given D2 behaviour, this looks like buddying. Soft defends Draz with NO REASON. I first had an analysis written up here that this confirmed Draz as scum, but Hopeless' later behaviour does not actually support that hypothesis. Soft defends Kush D2 has some more info: - Pressure on Promethelax. If Prom's behaviour at the vote was not enough to exonerate him, this is. It was enough of a case to keep flying under the radar. This is not the kind of case you want to make when bussing your teammate. Those you make with a high profile and keep pushing them (otherwise what the hell is the point of bussing?), so Prom is pretty much confirmed town based on this. - Says Acro is town. Soft buddying (yes, I say so myself) - Very interesting post: On November 05 2012 03:12 Hopeless1der wrote: I didn't find any breadcrumbs. However, I have a question: Any merit to this statement from Mattchew? Would wbg handpick roles? Why repeat this at this time? My theory: because actually none of us are scum (although I have a theory about risk.nuke below). Emphasizing this post by confirmed town veteran could lead to more pressure on Prom and leads automatically into suspicion of me and risk: all three of which HE knows are not on his team. - Soft pressure on Release. Null tell imho: could equally well be distancing. - States a will to lynch Drazak. This one is harder to read. However, he keeps his vote on Promethelax. Can be distancing. He once again does not give a reason for wanting Drazak dead. - I love the guilty undertone of his response to me. But it doesn't contain any associations. When the bandwagon starts building he suddenly unvotes Promethelax in favour of a no-lynch. Not sure what to make of this, but chalking it up to "must save my own ass and the Prom wagon already failed". - Once again, he mentions Draz as a lynch candidate. He could be lashing about at whatever he can get his hands on as he throws me up too. Maybe the scum plan was to bus Draz if things went south based on Draz being under continuous suspicion in any case. However, it is a LOT of wifom to draw any conclusions at all from this. - For anybody actually reading the filter, I never made a case on Fuba. Don't bother looking for it. Anyway, last minute bollocks case on me to try a desperate attempt at a swing vote (picked me to get on Prom's good side). Desperate attempt to get out from under a lynch... and guess what, that kind of thing is not a bus. Connect the dots. Suspiciously little interaction: - Kushm4sta (very suspicious: how do you play this game without addressing Kush... unless you are deliberately trying to avoid it?). Have to say that analyzing interactions is not my strong point, so someone please look into this. Hopeless1der shied away from interacting in general. It's hard to get much else from his interactions for me. TLDR: Strong read: Prom is not scum Weak read: Risk is not scum, Drazak is scum (high wifom quotient) The Town Promethelax, Thrawn, Acro - no explanation required. The Not-scum Release. He is currently one of my primary candidates for SK, but I don't think he's scum: + Show Spoiler [quote] + On November 05 2012 14:40 Release wrote: My post realllly didn't cause the move. It was Muso's claim. If anything, the post attracted some attention for being a distraction itself (which, ofc, i claimed that it was). About the trap: I'm the one who said, "oh, Kush is trying to trick a mason into claiming." Then i said "w/e. I concede that it was an honest mistake." Then this. At the time, i thought that this was a (lousy) attempt to get me to go back to my petty complaint against Kush. I was working under the assumption that he was not a smurf, that he was a complete newb, and that the scum also saw him as a complete newb. With those, i believed that the scum believed he would be more useful as a sacrificial lamb than as someone who might be a liability. As you can see, I don't tend to have the typical reaction, so pardon me if i don't want to add fluff to my filter by saying "what the.." I actually wanted to have some thoughts. + Show Spoiler + Why should there be a correct reaction? People react to things differently. I don't see a townie motivation for saying that there should be (one) correct reaction. <snip> This is a very non-scum reaction. It shows clearly that he is not correctly putting himself in the scum mindset. Faking that when actually IN a scum mindset is incredibly hard. He was also so uninterested in the vote that he didn't even show up for it. He was fairly certain HE was not getting lynched. This is also not scum: they care not only about themselves, but also their teammates (read below about Drazak). This, however, is the main point in favour of him being an SK. He is the most apathetic player this game. He makes cases, but is entirely uninterested in pushing them. Hell, he makes cases against people who he knows CANNOT be pushed (due to green checks... or well... me being town). He is fine coasting by this game, making weird plays that make no sense, but don't get him lynched. mkfuba Votes Hopeless1der. Unvotes to vote Drazak. Is then an early adopter of the Hopeless1der wagon. Assuming Drazak is indeed scum, this is just too incredible to go with. Master bus, or not-scum. If Drazak for some incredible reason flips town, then reconsider this, but as it is, this voting behaviour tells me he is not scum. However, he is incredibly flippant about just plain sheeping. He was also really happy to follow Thrawn, another strong town read, when the Prom wagon seemed a bit stuck and the Hopeless wagon never came off the ground. In his favour, he had Drazak as a scum read pretty consistently throughout the day. I don't really like mkfuba as an SK. I feel he is trying too hard. Feels more like town than Release, despite the question. This might be bias, because I also always want to know things that have nothing to do with me, simply because I get bugged by things I don't know when I am concocting some theory or other. The great unknowns DarthPunk I was going to put DarthPunk in town, as I seemed to have a town vibe. However, upon rereading his filter I am no longer sure. A lot of the things that I read as town are actually highly ambiguous. Please read his filter well and make very sure before trusting him. One thing, though: if Drazak is scum, then DP either pulled off a pro-bus before it even was a bus, or he is not scum (analysis will have to indicate whether he's SK or town). risk.nuke If Release is the most apathetic player, risk.nuke is a pretty close second: On November 07 2012 03:47 risk.nuke wrote: Why? Scum should get the same conclusion about fuba. I haven't really read the thread or scum hunted since last night. So probably no dawn post. I just wanted to make sure people didn't miss fuba claim SK. However, I also don't yet read him as scum. For one, I agree with Prom that he keeps saying townie things at the right time. This could be a sign of him flying under the radar. His posting style is ambiguous enough that I feel he could still be anything. I feel scum is the least likely option, partially because of Hopeless1der's repetition of Matt's post. I don't think he would've done that if there was actually scum on that list. kushm4sta He was || this close to be put under the scum header. I cannot see a town explanation for almost anything he has done this game. The only saving grace is the green check on him. Pretty much the first mention of Hopeless1der in the game: On November 05 2012 04:21 kushm4sta wrote: other scumreads are hopeless and mkfuba Incriminating without a reason or voting. Easy way to distance from a scumbuddy. No reason to do this as town at all. Note that this was somewhere at the start of D2. Hopeless is up for lynch and basically the only reason that kush has to jump ship is the claim. I have detailed my thoughts around that earlier, but what happened to the Hopeless1der being his second-strongest scum read? Granted, I can make very little sense of Kush's play in general. This harping on claims is so foreign to me that I cannot see how it works from a scum mindset either (or SK). It is just extremely weird, and that makes kush incredibly hard to analyze. I think a comparison to BillMurray is adequate here, with the exception that I am actually getting to know BM and think I can take a decent stab at making sense of him. Kush could, literally, be anything. The only read I am really getting is that he feels like he is being a teamplayer. He does not feel like an SK. There are some ways of verifying that, to some extent. If the scum KP is missing it can be due to an ace roleblock, or due to them shooting the SK. If the roleblock isn't claimed and the roleblocker doesn't die that same cycle, then it is almost certainly due to a bulletproof SK. A bulletproof SK means Kush is not the SK, in a similar way to the second scum not flipping framer means Kush is not scum. I feel the chances of Kush being scum skyrocket if there IS a framer. I feel Kush made an excellent frame target N1: he was under enough suspicion that he might be targeted, yet not too obvious (like Prom would have been). However, the Drazak-Kush interactions have been very un-scum-partner-like. This needs further analysis. The Scum Drazak In case this lynch still needs nailing down, here is a full case on Drazak's play this game. I know most of the points have been made by other people at one time or another, however for D1 I had Drazak down as noob town. I am now rereading him and find myself agreeing quite a lot with those other people, instead of forgiving Drazak's foibles. On November 02 2012 04:41 drazak wrote: It's just like breadcrumbing, Zealos. I don't see anything wrong with it and I'm not sure how it's not in the spirit of the game, how else would mason partners confirm eachother? Nah, I'm fine with it, I'm not fine with muso, lying about how many games he has and then screwing over himself, useless to town and probably scummy. Only thing is that I'm not sure why his scumbuddies aren't reigning him in if he is scum, probably doesn't communicate with them. Either way, he's pretty useless and possibly detrimental to us. ##vote muso Someone harped on Drazak for for the last sentence. I feel that is an unfortunate choice of words which could have been made by town. However, the complete lack of a problem with the glaring obnoxious lie that is being lared bare is telling. Muso's greater lie was being a mason (and at this point the lie wasn't even confirmed, I had just counterclaimed). However, a scum Drazak knows Muso is town and thus expects him to truly be a mason. He passes over that lie in favour of the lesser lie. The mason claim is only mentioned when he gets called out later. On November 02 2012 23:17 drazak wrote: I don't see any reason to change my vote, I honestly have no freaking clue why muso did what he did, but there's nothing town about it, if he is town, he's doing a very bad job establishing himself as town. I hope he isn't town though, a D1 mafia kill would definitely ensure our town victory. The last sentence feels insincere. I am terribad at emotional analysis from text, though. Just the logical non-sequitur combined with the false dichotomy really rubs me the wrong way and makes me feel the word "hope" here is insincere. However, this is a very minor tell in comparison to most of the tells in this list. On November 03 2012 06:07 drazak wrote: Release actually tried to scumhunt, I'm seeing town on him, even though he still wants to vote for me. I don't think he's done anything to cause confusion, and I think he really wants to find a mafia right now, which is what I'm trying to do. Mattchew is also looking town, although I'd like him to be a bit more active, I don't think he'd say that he likes his gut instincts D1 if he didn't believe in them and have somewhat decent evidence, less town than release but definitely a town read. Hope has about the right amount of defensiveness for a townie, he's gone to lurk mode around lynch time which makes me a little nervous, everyone else seems to be here and willing to talk except him. Not sure what he's up to but when he starts posting again I hope he has a good explaination, I'm neutral on him right now. Thrawn has been trying his damnedest to scumhunt for a D1 hunt, not sure what he thinks he might actually accomplish, but he's asking questions like I should be (but I don't because I suck ) and trying to make things happen. I find him distinctly town at the moment. risk.nuke has not a lot to go on in his filter, and every single one of his comments is 1 line and most of them are fluffy. I think this is even worse than my posts have been. I find him 2nd scummiest after muso. Kush is just doing his fucking trolly ass shit. Town meta for him 100% Zealos doesn't vote anyone and isn't happy with Acro or Muso, not sure what to think here, he wants to vote two of my town reads, not sure I like this, but might just not be following that closely. It is hard to get more non-committal than the bit on Hopeless1der in this list. He's green, but might be red due to lurk. On November 03 2012 06:26 drazak wrote: "Our" contributions to the thread? no immediate correction? sounds like a scum slip to me >.< I'll do it anyway, assuming you mean you and your predecessor. Sounds like a scumslip? However, Drazak KNOWS it's not, because he knows Prom is not scum. Therefore it only SOUNDS like a scumslip and can comfortably be ignored. Now, if Drazak had a strong townread on Prom at this point I could understand letting this slide. However: On November 03 2012 05:38 drazak wrote: I can't make a read on you, prom, you have like 6 posts. <snip> Immediately afterwards he buddies Prom pretty hard: On November 03 2012 06:33 drazak wrote: Well prom, you do have a lot more posts than I thought, i think I missed a few el flamewheelen style. Anyway, I'm not voting you because I think you're doing a genuine job scumhunting, I know you're on my case but you're just trying to do a good thing, and while you have the wrong target, your scum hunting is good since you don't know my meta very well and I'm pretty much always lynch bait. I don't find anything scummy with you bro. This just feels WAAYYY too chummy given the context of the game at that point and Drazak's earlier assertions. On November 03 2012 06:43 drazak wrote: you mean "you're" not "your", "your" shows possesion, "you're" is "you are". This kinda post just really bugs me. It is not contributing. I don't think it's scummy, it just really pissed me off at the time, and every time I read the filter. On November 05 2012 22:15 drazak wrote: Hey nuke, I kind of like your opinion on Prom, but I'm not sold on him being scum yet, do you have anything else to add to his case? I think he might be town still, do you have more to add to his case? Please convince me. I think Hope right now is my #1 read because he still hasn't posted jack shit, he comes back and is like "lol, I haven't posted and I should feel bad" and then doesn't post more, I'm gonna park a vote on him until I hear more from him, I want to know what his top reads are and wtf he thinks he's doing. |##vote hopeless1der Pretty important post in Drazak's filter. I read it as him testing the water on a Prom lynch... he knows he is flipping 180 from his total town read of the day before, so he cannot do it without "being convinced". However, if the Prom lynch is gonna happen, he wants to be able to seal it. This is ALSO the post in which he votes Hope as his "number 1 scum read" for lurking. We all know what happened to that #1 scum read. On November 06 2012 06:39 drazak wrote: I don't want to vote for prom but I will if it means a lynch, I think he's town and anyone who thinks otherwise is probably scum ( Herp derp. On November 06 2012 07:56 drazak wrote: Fuck it, I don't think hope is mafia. ##unvote ##vote prom we need a lynch though KABOOM MUTHAFUCKA. I CLAIM SCUM. WOOOOOOOOOO!!! On November 06 2012 07:58 drazak wrote: I'm scum because I'm not sure about a lurker lynch? k, whatever. ##unvote ##vote hopeless1der you better hope he comes up red or else I'm cominga t you dp Wait what the fuck?! Did I really just do that? Oh fuck oh fuck oh fuck oh fuck DAMAGE CONTROL. PLEASE NOBODY NOTICE! Oh shit, too late. On November 06 2012 09:39 drazak wrote: I'd have to be a monumentally stupid scum to jump that vote as scum, lol. There is, of course, this. However, you'd have to be a monumentally stupid town to jump that vote too. At least we agree on something However, all jokes aside, Drazak has still not explained how Hopeless1der showing up and saying "I was in a meeting, please don't lynch me" convinced him that Hopeless1der was not a lurker. On November 06 2012 08:39 drazak wrote: I didn't see his post about being in a meeting, and then I did and didn't want to vote for him because that sucks. Apparently no seeing a post and then reacting to it is scummy now The logic befuddles me: someone who is completely inactive all through the lynch is somehow a BETTER lynch candidate than someone who shows up 15 minutes before the lynch with a (probably bullshit) excuse? Lets just use Ockham's razor here: Drazak is new to playing scum. It is his very first time on TL as scum. The lynch on his scumbuddy suddenly gathered momentum just before the deadline while the whole day it was sitting cushy on a townie. He panicked and that was it. GG Drazak | ||
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I also rather like your theory (haven't finished reading yet). I will reread thrawn. I had a townread on him based on a number of things, but I had not thought of the scum/SK cooperation. Kush, what do you think of that theory? | ||
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That means we have a vig. It is theoretically possible, but we'll have to see whether the KP works out tonight. Anybody feel like claiming vig? | ||
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So.. if I die, any vig claim had better have breadcrumbed shooting Zealos or Mat. I still think a vig shooting either of them is unlikely and any claim should be very heavily scrutinized. | ||
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On November 07 2012 07:35 thrawn2112 wrote: acro what does my claim have anything to do with nks from N1? Goddamn it, stop asking me questions. If mkfuba's theory is correct, then you shot Kush on N1: you cannot be a cop and scum at once. That leaves missing KP (the SK is of vital importance to his theory). | ||
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Regardless. ##vote Drazak | ||
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On November 07 2012 07:44 mkfuba07 wrote: Was the trap for me? If so I'm sad =/ No. Trap was for whoever claimed vig. I thought an unlimited vig claim would put us at 7 non-VT roles, which according to the c9++ rules means no SK. I thought a scum might claim vig. But never mind, I wasn't thinking straight on multiple accounts with it. Back to good oldfashioned analysis. Also, a vig looks doubtful now that we had 0 kills tonight, but I will read thrawn with more attention to detail than I have recently. | ||
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On November 07 2012 09:25 kushm4sta wrote: I just noticed that I got a pm. I was roleblocked Why the fuck would anyone rb me?? Lol. You have to ask? | ||
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On November 07 2012 09:33 thrawn2112 wrote: So if he provides a tenable reason, are you open to changing your mind? Do you have any kind of response you think you're likely to believe? (obv if ur town then don't say what it could be) Your vote is up there with kush's flavor voting... just doesn't make sense imo. BTW: if there is a town jailer then they need to claim ASAP We have a claimed jailor (mkfuba) who claimed to rb prom We have release who claimed getting rb'd. That means we have potentially up to 2 roleblocks last night. If you are town jk and you rb'd release, you should claim. edit ok wtf now kush is claiming rb. so that's 3 potential rb's. Anyone that rb'd either kush or release should probably claim, especially if you are 1 shot. (or just pretend you're 1 shot in order to wifom mafia) sorting this out could end up leading to a 1-1 trade scenario I don't really see how this helps today. If you look at the mafiascum site a 1-shot roleblocker or jailer doesn't make sense, unless you don't believe fuba (and I'll wait for Prom to tell us what's up before doing that). That means any claim will out them permanently and with the risk of a scum roleblocker alive as well, that means he might not get to use his block tomorrow. I don't see how it will change our read on Drazak today, so why are you calling for a RBer to claim now? You trying to figure out whom scum should RB tomorrow night? For now, I will speculate that either Kush or Release is the SK and scum hit Promethelax. That cleans up the KP nicely. If Prom was not RB'd then we'll rethink that story. | ||
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On November 07 2012 10:27 kushm4sta wrote: @thrawn obv it shouldn't be the only deciding factor. But it should be considered IMO. Punch clock was a pretty bad claim. I just didn't have time to realize that then. If I have more time before the lynch I can think about the claim more. You are either trolling or the most stubborn useless player ever. I am so glad I am busy convincing myself you're the SK and we get to lynch you at some point. In fact, I might even want to lynch you before Drazak if you keep up this bullshit. | ||
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Anybody feel like claiming SK yet? I promise I'll hunt for the remaining scum before trying to lynch you. | ||
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Risk: I want your opinion on pretty much everything that happened in the last 48 hours. Particularly I want to hear what you think of Drazak and Kush. I am keeping going round and round in circles about Kush. Have you managed to find anything sensible? Prom: you're still alive, please come back to the thread and state whether you were RB'd or not. | ||
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On November 07 2012 09:54 kushm4sta wrote: Are you kidding me... people actually still think im scum or sk... LOL I was the first one to start talking about how vts had non character names. How would I know about that if i wasn't a vt.... When I get town I let you in me. I let you inside of me and I share all of myself with you. So it really upsets me when people retardedly think im not town. Great. Then please tell us who you think is the scumteam and who you think is SK. In fact, I want a LIST post from you with a detailed read on pretty much everybody. Flavour theory is allowed, because I want your thoughts, not what you think will please me. | ||
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Also, your thoughts on Drazak, please. | ||
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On November 07 2012 07:19 kushm4sta wrote: Sick post fuba. Basically I trusted thrawn because I know I'm town and he said I was town. But is there room for all these power roles? I want acro to really come clean. Are you seriously Jessica rabbit vt? Because that would be very fucked up. The thing is, the flavor is not as straight forward as heros and villians. People have claimed names from the movie who shot roger rabbit...Jessica rabbit, whatever acme . these are characters from that movie and they aren't villians. fuba either the flavor is not as straightforward as you think or acro prome and thrawn are all scum or sk. Okay, so you're town and therefore the DT check came up town. So far so good. However, scum already HAVE that info. Why did you trust the CLAIM? What made the claim believable to you? The rest of us have to doubt both the claim and the outcome. You only have to doubt the claim. Putting you in a unique situation to shed some light on it. Thoughts please. | ||
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On November 07 2012 11:28 DarthPunk wrote: Sup guys. I need to catch up on the lengthier night posts still. I am voting drazak today because I am 99% sure he is scum based on the play that has been analysed by several of us here. There are too many blues in this game also. So I feel as if this game does not conform to C9++ as much as we thought. Matt and Zealos were roleblocker and Jailer. Mkfuba claimed Jailer. Thrawn cop. plus another 1-2 jailer/roleblocker. all in all 5 roleblocking roles in the game so far. My top scum reads are drazak for claiming scum in the thread. And Kush if he isn't the SK. I think one of release/ kush are the serial killer. ok. I have an exam this evening so I need to study but I will be checking the thread in my breaks. ##Vote: Drazak You caught up yet? What are your thoughts on Thrawn and Fuba. What do you make of Release's behaviour? | ||
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I feel I am completely unable to draw a bead on you and that bothers me. | ||
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On November 07 2012 21:13 Acrofales wrote: Thrawn: I have seen quite a bit of your thoughts about Release and Kush. However, I don't really know what you think of anybody else. You seem to think Prom could be scum. What makes you lean scum on Prom at the moment? Also, your thoughts on Drazak, please. | ||
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I am assuming WBG replaced medics with JKs this game (I am too lazy to read WBG's previous games to figure out if this is likely). That means with an MM (one M is guaranteed by Zealos' flip) mkfuba could easily be telling the truth. I have some other stuff on mkfuba that gives me a not-scum read on him and this play would be basically impossible as the SK (high chance of scum gunning for Prom). So that makes MMRR, leaving at most 3Ts. Go to the wiki and look up all setups with 3 or less Ts and you see scum gets a roleblocker. That makes 5 roleblockers, of which 2 1-shot. Pretty much as the numbers work out. Now, on to why you didn't get shot: I think scum withholding KP is a completely ridiculous theory and should never be proposed EVER in a serious game. Scum don't do that. The wifom is simply not worth it, and even less so when the JK has already been killed and it looks like they have unopposed KP. In every single situation I have ever seen of a scum kill not happening it has been because of protection or scum being afk. Given all players' activity level this game, I think we can rule out afk, which leaves protection. I listed three options, however, there is a 4th, which I was withholding on the minor chance that an SK claimed (you never know, players be dumb yo). Possibilities: 1. Scum shot Prom. One of Kush, Release, or Prom is SK. 2. SK shot Prom. One of Kush, Release or Prom is scum hitman. 3. Scum shot SK. One of Kush, Release or Prom is scum hitman. 4. Scum shot SK. SK shot Prom. Shots say nothing about Release, Kush or Prom. I see no reason to suspect Prom as SK: the suspicions against him were due to too-much-knowledge, not a lack interest in the game. Prom's behaviour at lynch time and Hopeless' early case pretty much remove the possibility of scum. I am currently not willing to read any more into this. I want Kush to give me that list and I want to analyze Release's posting better. However, I am currently in full-on information-gathering mode. Oh, two objections to roleclaiming. One, scum almost certainly has a roleblocker and two, it seems too fucking easy to fakeclaim this game and it'll only fuel more retarded kush-like discussions. So I am against it. It is a fucking stupid way to play the game. | ||
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But fine, here it is again: ##vote Drazak | ||
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3 possibilities: 1. Someone got RB'd but didn't claim. If this was Zealos' target we'll never know. 2. One of the RBers got RB'd. 3. Prom or I got doublestack RB'd. I'm guessing number 3. I can see a scum RBing Prom and a town RBing prom. Scum bluehunting while enough of town had doubts about Prom being scum. However, rather a lot of wifom here. | ||
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On November 08 2012 02:15 Promethelax wrote: Fuba's theory of Kush=sk is possible if we assume that thrawn is town and he did get a green check on Kush but mafia framed him that night they would know 1)kush=sk and 2)he took bullet proof, this means that Scum could rb me tonight and, instead of holding their shot shoot off the SK's bullet proof. Errr, why would scum have to RB you tonight? Don't you mean they could RB HIM and shoot his bulletproof off? However, all of this is Wildly WIFOM. Lets work with what we know instead of dreaming up hypotheticals. FIRST we need to find a framer. | ||
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On November 08 2012 03:11 Promethelax wrote: If Fuba is scum: he RBs me, scum shoot off SKs bullet proof and get town cred for being a confirmed JK. Wild WIFOM. And where did Kush's kill go? | ||
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On November 08 2012 03:13 Promethelax wrote: Either hits a protect or he was RB'd (which Kush was). You are REALLY not thinking straight, just to make this theory work. It doesn't. If the kill was protected, are you adding a medic role into the process? If he was roleblocked, who roleblocked him (or alternatively, who roleblocked Release)? Note, you can't use mkfuba, because he was busy roleblocking you and fakeclaiming in the process. You are not only wifoming it up, but you are adding roles. Why do you want fuba to be scum so badly? | ||
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In any case, I don't see how we can get around flipping Drazak. He has pretty much claimed scum. The few theories I have left for solving this game revolve around his flip. If he's goon or roleblocker, I feel Kush is town. If he flips framer, then Kush is a likely scum candidate. If he flips town then my world is rocked, but even then I feel town wins this game. Oh, and fuck you risk: I don't claim to people I think have a good chance of being scum. | ||
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Risk, why do you have Prom and mkfuba as scum? Do you really think Prom pulled that bus off? And hopeless' case on prom was a bus-case?! Do you think mkfuba is lying about the jail on Prom? If so, who RB'd prom? Or do you think they're scum together? | ||
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1. Explain this: On November 03 2012 02:37 kushm4sta wrote: I don't like the muso bandwagon. KID WATCHING TV. It seems unlikely that scum would come up with that role name, especially since the first claim was Jessica rabbit. And it fits my non character vt theory really well. On November 03 2012 05:57 kushm4sta wrote: Ah shit that is a flow claim. The role names are valuable as fuck..don't see why people don't realize that. Carrot sounds good to me. ##unvote this is just drazak being drazak (Sry about double zs before) On November 03 2012 06:08 kushm4sta wrote: ##vote muso cause there's no one else On November 04 2012 03:00 kushm4sta wrote: I did not know he was town. I thought it was town. I voted him because I thought there was a better chance for him to flip red than drazak. Him and drazak were the only options. There was also prome, MAYBE but I didn't like the case on prpl. Why did you find CARROT a better claim than "Kid watching TV"? Despite On November 03 2012 06:02 kushm4sta wrote: Tnt is the most obvious one lol 2. Why was "Punch clock" a good claim at the time, but given more time it was a terrible claim. Does "Punch clock" being a terrible claim affect the validity of carrot being a good claim? | ||
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On November 08 2012 04:32 risk.nuke wrote: Wow, get hostile much? There are no blues to protect. Might aswell hear everyones claims. Yet we had 3 claimed roleblocks yesterday. All fakeclaims or scum roleblockers? | ||
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On November 08 2012 04:32 risk.nuke wrote: Wow, get hostile much? There are no blues to protect. Might aswell hear everyones claims. You are bluehunting and it looks even worse than when Kush as doing it. And yes, I was hostile, because I had you down as a better player than Kush. | ||
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Acro Prom mkfuba Town or scum: Kush Town or SK: DP Scum: Drazerk Unknown: Risk Release Thrawn Out of the unknowns, I have not yet spent enough time trying to figure risk out. I am hoping I won't need to. I think he's a bad lynch candidate today and that is about all I need to know right now. Release feels like and SK and thrawn feels like town, but neither strongly enough to put them in their corresponding classes. Regarding Thrawn: I agree with mkfuba's assessment that thrawn and kush make an unlikely scumteam (I had that written down, I was happy to see mkfuba agreed). That means that if thrawn is scum, then kush is either town or SK. I don't feel kush has been playing like an SK AT ALL (I also went through Kush's filter for an indication of this and I don't really find anything, except his sudden acceptance of bugs bunny as a town role, rather than scum), leaving Kush town (if thrawn is scum). Kush town and Thrawn scum is a possible option: Thrawn picked Kush to fake a DT check on precisely because he was suspecting him (and thus a DT check was credible). He has since kept the show up admirably by appearing to puzzle over Kush's behaviour (well, either a show or trying to figure out whether Kush is the SK). Thrawn being SK seems rather dubious. With that claim he runs the risk of outting himself to scum. That is something an SK would normally not do. Plus, Thrawn is keeping up the appearance of really trying to puzzle out Release and Kush (he has left most other players slide, which is something I really don't like). That does not seem to jibe with an SK play. Some things I like in Thrawn's filter and some things I don't. Yesterday I honestly thought he had done more scumhunting than he actually had. I don't like his lack of an opinion on many things. However, some things stand out as rather townie: 1. He did hammer hopeless1der, even if Kush hopped back on before thrawn did. 2. He placed a (somewhat obvious) trap when Drazak scumclaimed for the first time. 3. I think DP sprung a trap which was intended for me, although I'm not sure I see the point of that one. Traps are not immediately indicative of town play, but they do indicate a town mindset: scum are generally too lazy to trap, because people are scummy enough in their own right and they already know the alignments. A hyperactive scum might try to trap for the SK (or even for the sake of looking town), but I don't feel thrawn is hyperactive this game However, there is still enough doubt in my mind to place him in the "unknown" list. Plus I agree that his roleclaim seems unnecessary. | ||
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On November 08 2012 05:39 Promethelax wrote: Oh and I somehow forgot to do this already: ##Vote: Drazak + Show Spoiler [Acro look here] + You should claim+ Show Spoiler + you know why?+ Show Spoiler + I'll tell you why+ Show Spoiler + if you put me and you together we'd be like the water in mexico. No potable? | ||
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On November 08 2012 06:05 kushm4sta wrote: @prome drazak already claimed @acro why is dp SK or town and not scum? See my night post. | ||
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Movie: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=346522 Emergency: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=341663 WoF: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=330925 I'm going home. I guess I have probably made my role so blatantly obvious by now that even a blind man could have figured it out. I know the obsQT has it. So fine. I am Jessica Rabbit, the roleblocker. First night I tried to RB Prom, but failed miserably due to getting RB'd myself. Someone else RB'd Prom too, though, so that was kinda funny. Second night after agonizing over wth to do I RB'd Release, because I figured there was a good chance of him being SK. I very very nearly RB'd Kush which would've been a giant waste of time and I agonized for a long time over whether I should RB Drazak due to blatant obviousness after all. Settled on Release for his dark horse qualities: using RB as a cop check is fun. Unfortunately there are still too many possibilities to have learned all that much. | ||
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On November 08 2012 07:10 Promethelax wrote: I don't like your reaction, I asked because I wanted to see your response but what you have given me is defensiveness and no answer. This has been a trend for you this game and the fact that you get defensive about it instead of feeling bad about it reads as a scummy mindset to me and not a townie one. Green claims mean that we can't fake claim other roles if we are getting lynched. That is why they matter. More Set Up Speculation Ummm....I know we aren't playing C9++ really but if we were: 3 M = 1 1shot and 1 full JK 3 B = 1 1shot and 1 full Role Blocker 1 C = 1 1 shot cop that is all seven roles with no T so, in normal C9++ we would have Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather but no SK, now I know this doesn't follow those rules per se but that seems like a good system to base our ideas on, the thing is that for an SK to be present we'd need one T which would mean that one of the 1-shots doesn't exist, either Fuba or Thrawn would be scum and I'd vote thrawn before fuba. No. Actually only need 2 Ms and 2 Rs for 1shot and full of each. I read that wrong too when I was hoping to get a vig to claim. We're actually only up to 5. Could still be 2Ts, however that does not jibe with the KP on N1, meaning we're missing either a full vig or a 1-shot something-or-other. Or WBG shuffled it up and because jailers are stronger than medics, he is following the cop-structure for jailers, meaning we're at 1T. Yay for another level of setup wifom. As I said, claiming was fucking stupid. It serves no purpose for scumhunting and it was stupid of everybody to want it. Go feel ashamed if you were a townie who wanted mass claims in a normal game. | ||
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WIFOM AWAY! Going DOWN to 3Ts removes the Godfather from the equation, so that is not possible according to the list. This makes me more likely to believe Thrawn's claim. Guess at least something good came out of it. | ||
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I have a sneaking suspicion it's Innocent Wabbit. It just feels more bugsy. Yo risk, are you scum? | ||
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Is this risk.nuke? | ||
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On November 08 2012 02:02 drazak wrote: I'm, working on a case for risk being scum, I'll post more about it in a few hours when I'm not so busy The case. Give it to me! | ||
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On November 07 2012 22:28 Acrofales wrote: You caught up yet? What are your thoughts on Thrawn and Fuba. What do you make of Release's behaviour? | ||
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scum shot sk. sk shot prom. rbs were inconsequential. | ||
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That's making me think he's town. | ||
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Ok, convince me. Make a case on Kush that explains some of the following. Kush is an extremely unlikely SK. I tried making a case for him and couldn't. The problem is that voting behaviour. It's not something an SK would do. SKs don't pull stupid voting shenanigans, because they don't give a crap about the lynch, as long as it's not their head on the line. Do you feel lime that was all an elaborate act? To what purpose? Is kush even the kind of player who can pull that off? Imho you have to be Ace to even come up with that kinda stuff, let alone pull it off convincingly. And then, what's it all for? Kush is also unlikely scum. We already had the green check. We now have a roleblock claim. As far as I can see, the only way of this happening is if scum deliberately didn't roleblock (or roleblocked Prom) and took advantage of the missing block to claim RB'd themselves. Two problems here: The first is that the claim doeqsn't feel like a lie. It has frivolous details like the "I got a PM". That is too much effort for a lie: It describes a process. People lieing don't imagine the full scenario, just the relevant stuff, which would be "I was RB'd", without the extras. The second is that Kush already has the green check AND he claimed VT. Why have him claim RB'd, rather than his scumbuddy? This together makes him unlikely scum, but if we find a framer, I will reconsider this second part. | ||
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On November 08 2012 20:40 risk.nuke wrote: Show me evidence to why you think Innocent Wabbit being red seems bugsy. for now, ##Vote: Drazek Just the general impression I get of Bugs' sense of humor after multiple games and conversations. Bugs likes a good troll. Making Innocent Wabbit a scum role is trolly. I see you dodged the question, though... | ||
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Do you have a town read on risk.nuke? I don't. If you don't, then why would you not just wait to hear the answer? Now go away, you've done enough damage in this game and I want to hear from risk, not you. | ||
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I have a fairly decent scumread on risk by now, meaning I thought the chance of any claim by him would be a fake claim, so I made up some stuff about Innocent Wabbit. Could it be true? Yes, but I have no clue what goes on in WBG's head, nor is there any point to try to figure it out that way. What I wanted and DID was to pressure risk on his claim. Rather than just giving me his normal aggression off the bat, he got a bit hesitant. No big tell, so I pressured a bit more... and I get an OMGUS in response. It's not much, but the little bits are piling up. Combine that with DP looking increasingly townie and my not being able to make sense of an SK or scum Kush yet, makes me more and more certain risk is scum. His play is increasingly off his town meta, his vote on hopeless was lacadaisical at best. I am still waiting for some things for it all to make sense (particularly the flip), but I am quite confident I have the scumteam figured out in Drazak and Risk. | ||
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On November 08 2012 21:51 risk.nuke wrote: You're the one pushing for no-lynches and accusing people of scum for made up reasons. And you're having problem with what to think about me... Some people posted their reads rather openly this game... others just shut the hell up and never said anything in the last 72 hours or so except for a rather cryptic list. Now I am used to you not being very talkative when playing, but I am used to you caring. I know it's old, but here is you in GoT mafia: + Show Spoiler [risk.nuke caring] + On March 25 2012 07:30 risk.nuke wrote: Okey Risen, I'm going to tell you this once and slowly, Layabout posted legit reasoning for his vote. You are the one who is dragged behind a horse. On March 25 2012 07:44 risk.nuke wrote: Btw townies, do you know how sad it is that the most pro-town person besides myself is the third party. Townies do you understand waht that means? Can you fathom how lousy you're playing. I wish the mafia would kill me tonight you so I don't have to play with you useless lurkers, morons and dumb-posters anymore. On March 30 2012 00:05 risk.nuke wrote: Chaoser you have hardly discussed anything exept the two players risen and acro. Your filter is useless because I look at it and I don't have clue where you stand and you don't seem to have any intention of changing that. You're supposed to be one of the better players in this game but you have so few opinions, you don't post or bring up stuff yourself but just lurk unless directly asked something. I don't like this casual lurking without opinions because thats how you played in hammermafia. What do you think of Alderan and Greymist. Who are your scumreads? On April 01 2012 02:40 risk.nuke wrote: I'm exhausted. 8 hour examas does that. So basicly the Zealous lynch is bad, 1. Zealous is one of the few more active people. 2. He's done some few bad stuff but he's also done some good stuff which is completely ignored which I just find curious. The rest of the people. + Show Spoiler + gumshoe Jitsu Alderan chaoser Lyter Xatalos GreYMisT sinensis evantrees Looking at them right now there are two people I don't want to lynch. Meet Jitsu and Zealous. People I want to lynch more. You know how I feel about GreYMisT and he's looking bad from the layabout lynch vote-count. He was pushing risen but slow to vote him and it continues like that. I believe in odds and not badluck. But mostly I have gotten the feeling during the entire game that he's playing the game like he scum would play it. From when I know he's watching but doesn't post to how he chooses to post. I get scumchills and I'm probably right because I'm fairly smart. Alderan: I can't remember perfectly and i'm to lazy to go look though his filter. But there were scummy stuff in there, got a bunch of (-) from when I looked over it yesterday so it's there. Also, alot of flipped townies showed suspicion against him and what dead townies think counts alot. I think these two have the highest percentage to flip red. People I want to lynch. Chaoser: This guy isn't this bad. So either he's scum or he gives 0 shit about the game. And last time he did this he was scum. (Hammer mafia if you want to check) gumshoe: This guy is not forgotten. People I want to lynch less. Lyter Xatalos sinensis evantrees You might be wondering why I have labeled you as People I want to lynch "less". I'll tell you why. It's because you don't post. You have posted scummy things, or you've been unlucky and been on the wrong side with your opinions. It's all lead you to the same place. The place where you're suspicious. In a normal game when a person gets under suspicion they have to post to try and clear themselves. It is the pro-town way if you're a townie under suspicion. But it's also to be understood that in most mafia games everyone look town, so there isn't more then one or two people at a time. The threat of they beeing lynched is very real. This is the first game I play where instead of primarily trying to find the scum I'm trying to determine who's the safest bet for scum because logicly you can't all be scum. A problem for me here is none of you feel the threat or pressure of beeing lynched so you don't give a shit about trying to clear yourselves. If you don't say anything and if you don't have any opinions you push for I can't read you. In any other game you would had been dead by now. Any other game Day 4 and you looked like you do here you would be regarded as confirmed-scum. Here is a case you made quite a bit into the game in LC mafia: + Show Spoiler [LC Mafia] + On October 09 2012 23:32 risk.nuke wrote: I was checking into the day-1 lynch. Z-Bozon. clicky. Scroll up and you'll see the votes. It's tied at 7-7 with an hour to the deadline. What does Z-boz do. He unvotes and votes for Coag who as no votes and practicly no chance of beeing lynched. Making the lynch standings 7 on shady and 6 on node. Cares enough to go back over the voting thread and post his findings in detail. There is nothing REMOTELY similar in your play this game. Lets see, we have this: On November 02 2012 00:14 risk.nuke wrote: You should had given it more time, so you know next time. You could had safely dropped this 12 hours before the deadline and Muso's lynch would had been ensured. Regardless. ##unvote ##vote Muso Does not care about whether Muso is guilty or not. Just about getting Muso lynched. On November 04 2012 00:03 risk.nuke wrote: How are you supposed to get a read on me? It should make it blatantly obvious where I stand when I give you straight forward opinions. Meta: Go ahead! As far as I know you have exactly 1 scum game, which was funky weird. Not much meta to go on, buddy. And, your meta is off, compared to GoT mafia, when I got my first, and most memorable, look at you (since then we've been in some themed games together, but this is the first normal in a long time). Anyway, the main point is that you have "opinions". You say things like On November 02 2012 01:59 risk.nuke wrote: nice 180 prplhz. and then we are supposed to see this as: On November 04 2012 00:26 risk.nuke wrote: Hillarious how you can bring up a post of me pressuring people, dismiss it as scummy and then accuse me of never pressuring people. Two wrongs with one stone. Additionally I was pressuring prplhz hard just before he quit. Then I was leading on the Muso lynch arguing for it because it was the only thing to do. What the hell more do you expect from me? Want me to talk about the weather. I'm sorry, but I see "nice 180" as a feeler comment that says you caught him on a strange decision. That's not pressure, in fact, it's not even worth a response (and prp didn't give you one). When you pressure people, you do it like this: + Show Spoiler [risk.nuke pressuring greymist in GoT m…] + On March 22 2012 21:42 risk.nuke wrote: Welcome gentlemen to tonights episode of Who Needs To Get Hit In The Face With a Broadsword. My name is nuke and I will be your host for the evening. Untitled Reporter: Before we get to that, the day started of with a bunch of stupid stuff. Can you tell us a bit of what that was nuke? nuke: Yes naturally, so yes the day started of with wherebugsgo instantly deciding to do some initial trolling. My cameraman Mr.Wiggles caught some of the first responses. + Show Spoiler [Xatalos] + But isn't he third party? DAFUQ + Show Spoiler [evantrees] + The city was in chaos for a brief moment untill Acrofales rolled in and said. + Show Spoiler + Acrofales wrote: I'mma specculate on littlefingers wincondition. The quality play continues with GreYMisT wanting to lynch modconfirmed unlynchable third party. Which brings us to one of our main-candidates for the evening. Ladies and Gentlemen I present to you. ReDMisT. After reciving a pressurevote at the start of the game GreYMist emerges. He doesn't say anything about the vote made against him which I don't actually hold against him too much, altough a "Go bugger yourself nuke" in response to my vote would had been nice. However he doesn't say anything else either to generate lynch-discussion. Instead he tries to lead the conversation onto third-party discussion. If you look through his filter here. GreYMist Filter. His continued posts are pretty worthless. He makes a few points like informing how a Mayor system works, shoots down a role-claim. Denying freepasses and punching Mattchews poor logic in the face. Whilst these are alright posts and by that I mean not straight out useless or fluff they aren't doing much to help town either. They are just the kind of replies someone was going to post and GreYMisT posted first. So in terms of "helpfull discussion" aka "lynch discussion" GreY still sits on a pretty solid nothing. First. No, I did not see any sarcasm in your lets lynch littlefinger post. This is what you wrote. Tell me where is the sarcasm or how this clearly is a joke because I don't see it. Especially since the majority about that post is concerning what to do with littlefinger. GreYMisT dismiss it as sarcasm and a joke after the post BUT it wasn't sarcasm nor a joke. And that makes GreYMisT a L-I-A-R. Which is Scum in latin. I absolutely love the second part of this post If gumshoe is scum for jumping on the easiest lynch he can find, does the same go for you jumping on gumshoe? My other candidate right now was gumshoe but the case on him has already been stated and I don't feel like beeing overly repetetive. Winner: ReDMisT! Close but keeps his head: gumshoe! That's all for now, stay tuned! + Show Spoiler [risk.nuke pressuring BC and Mattchew i…] + On October 02 2012 07:07 risk.nuke wrote: BC talk to me scumshit. You show up late with a forced post in which you wildly misinterpret what I said, trying to twist find loopholes in my words too frame shit on me and. Additionally you state out of the blue you want to lynch 3 new targets with half of europe asleep untill the daypost. What are you trying to accomplish and how are you trying to make that happen? On October 10 2012 22:15 risk.nuke wrote: No Mattchew. that ship have sailed. As I said with coag, I'm done cutting you slack. You've had plenty of opportunity's to contribute but you're proving over again you don't have any ambition to see town suceed. All you do is lurk untill called out. You didn't even appear when day 4 started or as much as commented on ViceraEyes claim. Why should I think that your anything but demotivated because you're loosing and can't find strength to give this game anything. Risk.nuke has enough experience to know what actual pressure looks like. What he did to prplhz was clearly not that. Then we have this: On November 04 2012 22:22 risk.nuke wrote: Nothing shoddy about my case. Naming it won't make it so. Convince me why it would be a good idea to tell the town my town or lesser scum reads and I will. I see nowhere in risk's filter where he has a problem giving out scum reads on multiple people. Needlessly secretive is not something I associate with risk. Bluff, frank and aggressive are his playstyle, not this kinda wishy washy stuff. On November 06 2012 06:42 risk.nuke wrote: oh thrawn and kush is here and mkfuba just dropped in. Now I'm just undecided who I want to kill. I face the problem of having warmed up to you so now I'm in a gut vs logic debate. Considering killing DP or mkfuba or drazek. The two later just showed up suspiciously. And here is a great reason why NOT giving reads is such a great idea if you're mafia. When your preferred kill goes south you can just switch to pretty much anybody else without ever being accused of inconsistency. On November 08 2012 03:38 risk.nuke wrote: Prom you're way pushing my "I'm warming up to you" alot. Who is the last two mafia and who is the SK. (I don't buy into theories involving additional blues, we already have an army of them) Remaining players: Myself thrawn2112 Promethalax DarthPunk Acrofales mkfuba07 drazak kushm4sta Release People have been requestiong them so are are my overall thoughts: Town: thrawn2112, kushm4sta. + Show Spoiler + I belive thrawns claim and while kushm4sta is a terrible player he's done nothing to warrant doubting a greencheck. Likely Mafia: Drazek, Promethalax, DarthPunk and mkfuba. Maybe Mafia: Release. Likely SK: Darthpunk, Acrofales. Maybe SK: Promethelax. Look! I used a random generator to decide who to put where! Or didn't you? When asked to explain, you never even mentioned it again. Ever. Instead you got caught up in the mass claim game. Now there were some early signs that risk was being his townie self, but these have evaporated as the game went on. Combine that with other people looking townier as the game continues and we have ourself a very Innocent Wabbit | ||
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On November 09 2012 01:00 drazak wrote: I don't know what you want me to do Prom. I'm working the case for risk right now, I fell asleep last night because I was too tired after my day's activities. I've been honest with everyone, I don't know what else you'd want me to do. I think Prom wants you to post a photo of yourself wearing a leotard. Other than that, I believe the thread contains plenty of ideas for things to do. There are unanswered questions, unmade cases and you've been completely inactive since in the spotlight. Could be scum giving up, could be town giving up. I understand the demotivated feeling that comes from being lynched. But either way, I believe your wincon is to convince us otherwise (I don't see how lynching the townie Draz helps town at the moment. Sometime lynching a townie is necessary to move forward, but not now). I expect 6 hours of stellar activity that shows me exactly why my case last night is a terrible blunder. Gogogo. | ||
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On November 09 2012 01:16 Promethelax wrote: If he was going to get modkilled (he isn't anymore, plan gone) it would be nice if we could let him die on his own and lynch the next scummiest guy as long as we could make sure that if he showed up to make sure he didn't get modkilled we could still lynch him. I like it but it doesn't matter anymore. He already claimed scum. Jumping in at the last second, yelling NINJAVOTE and trololololol'ing all over your face would totally happen. Plus, counting on modkills to do your dirty work is generally bad play. | ||
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It's impossible that he's scum if Drazak flips red. Otherwise, maybe. Needs more analysis. I have not yet ruled him out as SK. However, I feel more confident with him being green than anything else. Particularly today, his behaviour around the mass claim derpage felt townie. | ||
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1. I was lazy. 2. I was fully expecting to get shot before any necessity to claim came up. | ||
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If you don't believe the obsession, I see no reason why you'd believe a breadcrumb, so /shrug. | ||
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On November 09 2012 04:46 Promethelax wrote: So you thought it wouldn't help town to know who you had RB'd after your claim when we would know 100% that you are town? Remember when you and I went filter Diving through mr Zealos trying to figure out who he roleblocked? Remember who you made it clear that was important? Why did it not matter to you toprovide town with all the information that could be possibly availible to us? I played suboptimally. Sue me. Also, have you even looked at my filter? Do you really think you could find a crumb in there? Assuming I wasn't making it blatantly obvious I was crumbing, at least? | ||
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Look at what I was thinking at the end of the night. Figured there's a good chance you're the SK. I still think there's a good chance you're the SK, btw. | ||
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If you're asking me what made me want to roleblock you, then clicky! | ||
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1. It came in N2. Anybody who is going to crumb their role does that D1 or N1. They don't wait for night actions to resolve, another day to pass and THEN crumb their role unless it's a 1-shot vig claim, but then we are missing 3 KP, not 2 on N2. 2. Additionally, if it's a 1-shot vig claim, there's a target missing. 3. If it was a TRAP, it was so obscure that I wonder what the point of it was. Now I am someone who could miss a breadcrumb even if it was written in rainbow colours using blink tags, but this one was just really well hidden. So what the hell was this crumb? It is clearly deliberate: for the hell of it, I tried to put together an IRB in my filter and didn't manage. IVIG is even less likely with a V and a G. Also, the (in hindsight) strange permutation of words and capitalized Godfather leave 0 chance that it wasn't placed there on purpose. However, he explicitly claimed not-vig earlier. I am highly confused. | ||
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Anything other than Drazak is fucking nuts. Thrawn is going up in my scumometer again for trying to twist the lynch at the last second. | ||
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Drazak: we want your last words. If you're town, they help you. If you're scum, they help us. Gimme! | ||
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On November 09 2012 08:01 drazak wrote: gg no re Not sure if scum or town from this. Damn you. Hiro!!! Stop taking snow crash and give us the nightpost | ||
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On November 09 2012 08:04 thrawn2112 wrote: from my experience stuff like that usually means scum or really pissed off town O RLY? | ||
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Also, Kush is not scum. | ||
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On November 09 2012 08:16 DarthPunk wrote: FU all. Seriously. I fucking knew it. lol Everybody except thrawn and kush knew it. Now we have another full filter of associations to puzzle over. Yummy Kush not-scum, so give me your SK theories or consider him town. DP pro-busser or not-scum. Everybody else null. | ||
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On November 09 2012 08:18 thrawn2112 wrote: how can you come to that conclusion if I'm "going up in your scumometer" Because there are only 3 scum. If you're scum, he's not and if he's scum, you're not (that latter one is now ruled out) You being SK and claiming a green check is just SO wildly unlikely that I don't think I'll consider it. That leaves you being scum, Kush being SK and you just getting a completely random check on Kush. However, Kush's behaviour does not jibe with SK at all imho. | ||
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Because there are only 3 scum. If you're scum, he's not. Hence Kush not scum. and if he's scum, you're not. Ruled out by green check. That's better. | ||
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On November 09 2012 08:24 DarthPunk wrote: I knew it day one. And I am not ashamed to be ungracious about it. You know who knew it D1? The scumteam. Something to chew on there... | ||
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Risk.nuke final scum. With DarthPunk and Kush cleared from the scumlist, risk is the only one left. Minor outside chance of thrawn. When Release and DarthPunk claim we can see if the blue roles work out to anything believable. | ||
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So yeah, Release as a possibility of scum too. | ||
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On November 02 2012 20:17 drazak wrote: I'm just... I'm gonna go fine a corner to cry in, this game. 2 town fake claims on day one that are already admitted fake claims? fucking serious? Not sure what to make of all of it Still fucking lol at this scumslip. I saw it yesterday as well, but the case was strong enough and someone had already pointed it out on D1. If we hadn't been distracted by Muso (and me by prplhz), Drazak would've been so dead. | ||
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On November 09 2012 08:40 mkfuba07 wrote: Guys, who roleblocked kush? Could the scum roleblocker please stand up and claim! Risk, want to save us the trouble of lynching you? | ||
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On November 09 2012 08:43 thrawn2112 wrote: oh whoops for some reason I thought release was lynched and flipped red. nvm Thank you for making me THINK at last. Conclusive final proof that Release is NOT SCUM (still SK though): Release was fucking ROLEBLOCKED A roleblocked roleblocker can't roleblock. Kush claimed roleblocked. Either this is a remarkable magic mix of circumstance, or Kush was in fact roleblocked. That means the scum roleblocker was not roleblocked. Ergo, Release is not the scum roleblocker, and thus not the final scum. Q to the fucking ED. | ||
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If A and B are roleblockers and C is some random joe, WHO is roleblocked in the following situation? A roleblocks B B roleblocks C PS. The answer is: only B. | ||
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On November 09 2012 08:50 thrawn2112 wrote: what if he's scum and lied about being rb'd, or if there's not a scum rb? If Kush is scum then how the fuck did you get a greencheck on him?! Or you claiming SK here? There clearly IS a scum roleblocker, because both Prom and I were roleblocked N1 and see HiroPro/WBG's incoming answer to see that that means there is another roleblocker (I only asked Hiro like 3 times to make sure my roleblock on Prom did not happen). | ||
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On November 09 2012 08:52 DarthPunk wrote: Also. There may still be a framer. I am not sure how likely that is in comparison to them having a roleblocker. But it is certainly an option. You people all fail miserably at logic. Or there are 4 scum. That seems way outside the realm of C9++ games, though. | ||
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On November 09 2012 08:54 kushm4sta wrote: Why would scum role block me though? Wouldn't it be beneficial for them for sk to kill someone? Not if they think the SK is gunning for them... and we did our very very best to make them think the SK should be gunning for them. Also, the SK should totally NOT have been gunning for them, lol, but I assume the SK already knew that. | ||
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On November 09 2012 08:55 Release wrote: I claimed VT. I'll claim VT again. The purpose of the breadcrumb was to see whether i would be role blocked for wanting to vig kush. A side effect is that it drew RB away from other town (i was assuming that if i were RBed, it would be a mafia RB). What's your rolename. Chop chop now, you've had plenty of time to fabricate one. | ||
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On November 09 2012 08:57 DarthPunk wrote: YOu do not have all the information and you are on the wrong track with your assumptions. I would not continue making these assumptions until you have all the information. I am making very very FEW assumptions. However, I do happen to have rather a lot of experience with mathematical logic. However, writing the entire proof out was getting needlessly complicated. Here is the abbreviated version: The cases in which Kush could be lying about being roleblocked are: 1. He is scum and thrawn is scum. This makes a 4-man scumteam, which is just really unlikely. 2. He is scum and thrawn is SK. For some reason, the SK decided to throw a fake greencheck out there just for the hell of it. If you believe that, then this scenario is okay. 3. Kush is SK. How does fakeclaiming RB'd make sense in this case? I don't see what purpose it serves. 4. Kush is scum and so is random person X, who is a framer. Mattchew roleblocked Prom on N1 and Zealos me (or vice versa). Once again, 4-man scumteam. Those are the cases in which Kush could conceivably be lying. I am further assuming town don't lie about being roleblocked and town ALSO don't lie about having greenchecks. Therefore, if we assume that: A1. Scum is not a 4-man team A2. Kush is not the SK FAKECLAIMING (you can believe Kush is the SK all you like, but you ALSO have to believe he fakeclaimed roleblocked) A3. It is not so that Kush is scum AND thrawn is the SK AND thrawn fakeclaimed a greencheck. Then Kush cannot be lying. Kush not lying means there is an unclaimed roleblocker. That unclaimed roleblocker cannot be Release due to logic in a previous post. | ||
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On November 09 2012 09:12 kushm4sta wrote: @release porky pig is a character name... so far there have been NO vt character names. What is up with that? Marvin Acme Your flavour theory is wrong. Where did I miss him claiming Porky Pig, though? | ||
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Can there be 4 (or more) players on the mafia team? | ||
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On November 09 2012 09:46 DarthPunk wrote: I urge you all to shut up. Nothing we discuss now can't be discussed later when it won't give scum additional info on which to perfect their kills. so yeah. see ya all later. As if they don't have enough info already. I prefer to have a talkative night. Then again, I'm a talkative guy. Anyway, the only way I can see a 4man scumteam existing is if Bugs changed the very last bracket (0T) to a 4man team (that's the one I thought was a bit underpowered when looking at that site for the first time). Previous setups: Moviestar mafia: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvRGXY4QJLzOdFFmUk13dHBNQUZTUDcwdFRibWtvMVE#gid=0 Speculation: CCVJ3T. One goon on scumside replaced with framer. Emergency mafia: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvRGXY4QJLzOdHNaMVg3RFNvMlE4WV8yTkpHSE12T0E#gid=0 Speculation: CCJRRMT. This is more inline with the number we can expect this game. 3 scum, 1 SK. WoF is lacking spreadsheet and it seems as if Bugs was still perfecting his C9++ version there (didn't have self-aware millers and weird RB rules based on who sent the night action in first). Anyway, what I can puzzle out is: Godfather, 2 Goons. One-shot cop, One-shot vig (all I can find in there) CV5T. According to C9++ the 5T setup has a goon, gf and sk. Apparently bugs changed this. WoF also has the explanation of JK instead of medic: On April 21 2012 19:33 wherebugsgo wrote: I've made a small setup tweak and have changed the doctor possibility to jailor, to reduce the possibility of a follow-the-cop situation. This was a change I overlooked in my haste. Apologies for that. If you have any concerns, particularly balance concerns, about the setup, feel free to PM me. I believe there were 1 or 2 before WoF, but too lazy to check back that far right now. | ||
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http://disney.wikia.com/wiki/Marvin_Acme You just have a giant lump of confirmation bias allowing you to mold your theory into anything that currently fits your facts. | ||
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On November 09 2012 10:52 Promethelax wrote: By this I assume you mean that everbody is null from this lynch or do you mean null over all? Please clarify. In addition I would like you to restate the reason that Release is not scum. Just based on this lynch. Still have plenty to say about other people based on other stuff. If you feel talkative, mind looking at Drazak's filter. Does that last case feel like him distancing himself from risk, or a desperate attempt to get out of a lynch to you? | ||
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On November 09 2012 20:06 risk.nuke wrote: I'm just telling town how to catch the SK if I die before I can post again. If you have a problem with my logic you're free to adress it. I'm not worried about getting lynched. It's not your logic we're worried about. Obsession with SK (and no mention of scum at night ever) because he's scum and fears the SK shot, but not the scum's. | ||
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On November 09 2012 01:23 risk.nuke wrote: Acrofales your case is both wrong and selective. We can start with the selective part. You've gone over my games trying to find examples (tunneling) that would make me stick out. Furthermore my 180 on prplhz is pressure because it implied I want an explanation. You dismiss it as nothing that required an explanation proving once again your idiocy and wrongly assume prplhz didn't feel the need to answer it. He just replaced out before he could. Killing Muso was logical, you might interpret it as not caring (because you suck) because I didn't show any direct feelings about him. This was because I didn't have a read on him prior to what happened. It was just unpersonally logical in the essence that it would have been stupid not to lynch him. However I cared about killing him. Or I wouldn't had pushed for it. As far as caring goes, look at my posts when you brought up a no-lynch and try to dismiss that as not caring you tunneling moron. Okay. Time to pay attention to this. Firstly, what I actually DID was go over your cases thinking I'd find similar playstyle, because Mattchew indicated that you're playing to your town meta... and he probably has more experience playing with you in normal games than I do. What I found was a rather different risk.nuke. Secondly, you are being highly speculative about what prplhz would do if he had still been around. "nice 180" is a flippant remark that I personally would either ignore or return, depending on how much time passed before I saw it. Pressure it is, barely. Pressuring hard, as you said it was in a later post, it was clearly not. Killing Muso was logical. Agreed. You cared about KILLING him. Agreed. You did NOT care about figuring out whether he was town. Everybody else at least pondered it. You just went straight into "fakeclaim = death", because you already KNEW he was town AND an easy lynch. Always good when one of the other lynch candidates is your scumbuddy. You cared about, or claimed to care about getting a lynch in. At the time that seemed townie. However the lynch was aimed rather well at Promethelax, a (presumed) townie. Your behaviour after that: On November 06 2012 06:42 risk.nuke wrote: oh thrawn and kush is here and mkfuba just dropped in. Now I'm just undecided who I want to kill. I face the problem of having warmed up to you so now I'm in a gut vs logic debate. Considering killing DP or mkfuba or drazek. The two later just showed up suspiciously. So.. people don't seem to want to lynch Prom after all. Lets try something else: throwing names out there just because I can! If the lynch on DP got or fuba got picked up, you could jump on without a problem If not, well then, no harm done, because you never really did anything. Just thew their names out there (oh, and if out of the three Drazak gets picked to run with, you're cool with your vote on Prom, so no worries). None of those lynches got going, though, and instead we have: On November 06 2012 07:39 risk.nuke wrote: I was observing, I wanted to see how the hopeless wagon would go. Yes, I can see how much you cared about the D2 lynch. You were incredibly involved. You really cared about getting the right guy. Pushed your reads hard. It was a marvelous example of townyism! /golfclap | ||
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I have some ideas, but anybody who thinks he knows who the scum roleblocker is, make yourself heard! | ||
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On November 09 2012 23:29 kushm4sta wrote: @risk if I were sk I would definitely pick investigation immune over bulletproof. next we kill risk then release then dp them prome that's what I'm thinking right now Why risk over release? | ||
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On November 10 2012 00:54 kushm4sta wrote: Release is a surer thing but he's sk not mafia. You are right though. They both have an kp so might as well kill the sk. So if I understand you right, you do not suspect thrawn, DP or anybody else? | ||
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On November 10 2012 02:51 thrawn2112 wrote: There are already 2 confirmed blues and 3 claimed blues. dp has even been hinting that he'll claim something later on. Are we really just thinking it's ok that we have 5-6 blue roles with a unclaimed vig/sk? I'm thinking that one of the people who claimed a roleblocking role might be scum roleblocker. And townies are fakeclaiming roleblocked. Yay for logic! | ||
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Putting too much emphasis on it? Sure. Using it to paint people scum. Yes, but he only once calls it outright wrong, and that is rather vague, and hidden in his large case on Kush, which came on D2. About 30 hours after Kush started with his nonsense: On November 05 2012 05:20 Release wrote: Kush has been pushing his flavor theory all game. Wherebugsgo specifically said that the game could not be broken based on this so i don't know why he keeps pushing it. Even though the nightkills and Muso seem to strengthen this theory, I wouldn't believe for a second that the theory will work for every player. Now... Porky Pig If I had had that rolename I would've been way up in Kush's face that his theory is wrong, just as Promethelax was. Release wasn't. Not really sure what to make of this. | ||
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I read through Drazak's filter and I cannot find anything much of interest. Maybe someone else has better luck? However, his flip is good for a number of other reasons: Release cannot be scum Kush cannot be scum DP pulled off an excellent bus, or isn't scum. So, that narrows the list down quite a bit. Namely, to thrawn and risk (Prom was cleared due to N1 and mkfuba's roleblock has not been counterclaimed, so that also seems to work out). I spent quite a bit of time reading their filters and risk just looks about a 1000 times scummier than thrawn. Thrawn looks a bit like I felt in Bastard Mafia 2: he is having a hard time convincing himself about the scums and therefore he reverts to doubting everybody. It's not good, but it's not scummy. He has made quite a few incredibly townie posts. So that leaves risk. See the multiple cases on risk already in the thread for explanation of why risk is scum. Finding the SK This is a lot harder. Release doesn't feel like a teamplayer and yesterday's lack of NKs is definitely looking like he could be the SK. DarthPunk is possible. Prom cares too much, but outside chance. Once we're done with shooting Risk, Prom needs to be looked at. mkfuba: cannot be due to no counterclaim. thrawn: outside chance: VERY risky play to claim cop as an SK and the benefits are minimal. kush: cares too much. In his own weird way he is really playing as a teamplayer. Plus, him pulling out the flavour theory speaks to him being an actual VT, even if the theory is completely wrong. | ||
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On November 10 2012 06:37 thrawn2112 wrote: ?? Notice I said "might be a scum roleblocker." The roleblocks would still be there, nobody would have to fake anything. So there's 2 scum roleblockers? | ||
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Prom: I suspect you or I will die, want to give your reads? Oh, and in case anybody is still wondering, I'm roleblocking risk for completely obvious reasons. | ||
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risk.nuke Release DarthPunk Thrawn Kush Prom mkfuba If risk for some crazy reason does not flip red, then Thrawn rockets up to the top. Also, whatever you do: Release cannot be scum unless scum has a 4man team OR Kush is SK and fakeclaimed roleblocked. Kush cannot be scum unless there is a 4man scumteam OR Thrawn is the SK and fakeclaimed a greencheck. Even if you don't follow my logic for it, it is bulletproof. I have a PhD in that shit. | ||
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If there is 1 kill tonight, then three possibilities: Scum shot SK This scenario means that they did not shoot SK yesterday, so one of release, kush and prom is the SK. Scum killer was RB'd risk is scum. Scum and SK doublestacked Nothing useful to learn from this. Note that unless there is an unexpected roleblock claim, I could not have roleblocked the SK, because I would be RB'd. | ||
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Could he be SK? Yes. But there's more likely candidates. | ||
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It makes fuba town (or scum with Prom, which is completely retarded) It makes me town (or scum with Release, yeah... that happened) It does not say much about Release or Prom except that they felt the need to claim roleblocked. | ||
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On November 10 2012 08:24 DarthPunk wrote: sorry. I slept in. catching up now. \pull out pitchfork | ||
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I am living on borrowed time! | ||
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On November 10 2012 08:30 DarthPunk wrote: ok. Caught up. I am going to claim. Not because it is a good idea. (It isn't) But because a mass claim is has already happened and is being pushed on to me now. I strongly feel that blues should claim when they feel it is best and not when the thread (and possibly mafia/3rd party) does. All in all I am fairly frustrated that I am being forced to claim but I suppose it doesn't matter as much now as it would have earlier. Agreed and I already joined that club. To become a member you need to pay 10 euros. Or yell publicly in the thread "Acro is awesome". | ||
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Prom cannot be scum unless scum has a 4man team OR Kush is SK and fakeclaimed roleblocked. Same proof as for Release of course. | ||
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On November 10 2012 08:35 kushm4sta wrote: acro you are a dead man walking right now You claiming SK? | ||
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2 full JKs and a 1-shot is: JJJJ Full RB and a 1-shot is: RR Full cop is: C That makes 0T, which gives: Goon, RB, Godfather. However, there is now a RB missing for this to work. There is also a surplus of KP. WTF. This is weird. | ||
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On November 10 2012 08:55 thrawn2112 wrote: acro: I'm not putting much faith in the setup speculation, for all we know bugs may be using something completely different Then he has changed to something completely different all of a sudden without bothering to mention it: see the links to previous bugs setups. | ||
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N2 I could see scum RBing Release or Kush. So an overlap of roleblocks is possible too. | ||
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But DP's story seems to check out, although he could be scum riding on the wave of claimers: the medic part of the jailkeeper cannot be verified due to the way this game works and the RB is equally likely to have prevented a hit. So DP could be scum on an awesome bus of Drazak and then claiming town RB instead of scum RB. I think all setup speculation is pretty much out the window right now. That leaves behaviour; and risk is still the scummiest. Also, with DP claiming he RB'd Prom and Prom claiming RB'd, Prom cannot be SK (if SP was lying about being a roleblocker, then Kush wouldn't have been RB'd). | ||
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On November 10 2012 09:08 thrawn2112 wrote: @ prom I didn't breadcrumb a target. I woke up hungover (halloween/birthday weekend) and put as much effort into a 1 shot-cop breadcrumb as I could stand and didn't bother with the target. acro's complete lack of a breaddcrumb after seeing the effort he went to to make the mason breadcrumb is worrying. it's hard for me to accept that a guy who would encrypt a fakeclaim wouldn't bc his role or action during N1 The point of a mason breadcrumb is so that the partner can claim after death and become pretty much modconfirmed town (that's why I hammered on hiding it well). THAT is why I was hammering on breadcrumbs. Other roles scum can plant breadcrumbs easily. Hell. I've done it. | ||
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On November 10 2012 09:14 Acrofales wrote: That's the problem I have. I cannot see this game being even remotely balanced without a scum roleblocker. But DP's story seems to check out, although he could be scum riding on the wave of claimers: the medic part of the jailkeeper cannot be verified due to the way this game works and the RB is equally likely to have prevented a hit. So DP could be scum on an awesome bus of Drazak and then claiming town RB instead of scum RB. I think all setup speculation is pretty much out the window right now. That leaves behaviour; and risk is still the scummiest. Also, with DP claiming he RB'd Prom and Prom claiming RB'd, Prom cannot be SK (if SP was lying about being a roleblocker, then Kush wouldn't have been RB'd). Oh, forgot to finish that last sentence: because there were 2 hits, that means that whoever carried a KP was not Prom, because he was definitely RB'd. | ||
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On November 10 2012 09:19 DarthPunk wrote: I did try telling you all without claiming. There are too many blues in this game, You do not have all the information. etc Now I will die tomorrow night. So thanks I guess. Hey, don't blame me. I was against that shit. I just joined because people were making it impossible to play without claiming. People be derps, yo. | ||
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If this is what happened, it was a fucking superb plan. | ||
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On November 10 2012 09:26 DarthPunk wrote: Do you think this game would be balanced with 3 goons+ godfather or 2 goons framer and godfather? because it seems obscenely town favoured even with a scum roleblocker or framer. I feel a 4man scumteam would be okay, but only without an SK. However, there were 2 kills on N1 and the OP says that scum KP is ALWAYS 1 and there are no scum KP roles there either. Meaning someone is forgetting to claim vig and fakeclaiming vt instead (honestly, that would be the most retarded shit ever), or there is an SK. 4 scum, 1 SK and 8 town just doesn't seem right. 2 mislynches and some bad luck at night and scum wins. Assume SK and scum hit town at night: 8-4-1 becomes 5-4-1 becomes 2-4-1 and scum has won. Let me put it differently: town would have to KNOW it's a roleblock/JK heavy game to make a setup like that fair. I would also hesitate to call it normal, because it's not balanced around scumhunting inasmuch as protecting townies at night. | ||
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On November 10 2012 09:41 DarthPunk wrote: certainly more volatile then. But not imba. Clearly by the presence of a oneshot cop and a SK this setup is not normal. I can't make sense of it so I am going to try and ignore it. [M][N] Acme Mini Mafia - 8/13 alive; due to end Nov 12 - Nov 18 (wherebugsgo is host; HiroPro is cohost) | ||
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On November 10 2012 10:00 DarthPunk wrote: That confirms serial killer and 3 scum then? No, it confirms the Mafia Lords signed off on it being normal. Other than that it doesn't do anything. However, it is simply showing that this game is considered normal (and previous Bugs games with C9++-esque rules were too). | ||
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Jailer claimed to RB Release and no NK happened. How the fuck was the lynch on Thrawn? Then okay, thrawn flipped town. HOW THE HELL WOULD A TOWN RBer NOT RB THE SAME DUDE? It was at that point 100% obvious that DP was scum, needed a kill to win and had to blame that kill on someone. Enter Release, te scapegoat. Fuba, who never actually took the game too seriously had completely given up and was sheeping DP without thinking at this point. And Kush never bothered thinking it through either. | ||
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First, I want to commend Muso for his play, even though it was a judgement error. I had never thought of the "town reason for fakeclaiming mason" into account, but Muso was right: if TL games didn't tend to run on a LAL policy, it makes good sense: town is not relying on the mason's night actions, yet scum wants masons dead, so a VT not too sure of his analytical skills can take one for the team in this manner. I was kinda excited about counterclaiming for two reasons: The first was obviously that I just took one look at the claim and thought "that is a bullshit claim and if I were a mason I would not claim like that. Less so if I were completely new to the game". Which led me to wonder who and why would try to fake claim and I figured the fastest way to defuse that claim was to counterclaim. Seeing as nobody else had counterclaimed yet, I was fairly certain that either Muso was actually a mason derping it up completely, or there were no masons. The second was to gauge reactions around the way it played out and get some actual useful content, which was absolutely lacking in what was looking to be a regular D1 snorebore. The most interesting D1 (actually N0, but lets not nitpick) I have played was when Hiro made up the bullshit "House Chezinu" claim in Bastard Mafia 2: while not quite on the same scale, I thought the way the story would unfold would give us some rather interesting discussion. This only partially worked out. It did generate a lot of discussion, but the people whose reaction I connected with scum mindset were all town. The scum simply rolled with the punches and lurked through the whole ordeal. Nevertheless, I feel the discussion generated was generally useful, but am not sure it was enough to justify the gambit. @Bugs: I was not sure the encryption was in the spirit of the game. Doing that with steganography would have been possible, but a lot harder. Are you okay with that? Zealos clearly wasn't and I have seen encryption used to pretty much break some non-normal games. However, I didn't see much harm in doing this here. @Prom: sorry for pushing you so hard in the early game. However, the pushing served its purpose and made me lean town on you before it was lynchtime on D2. You played well, until you decided to lynch thrawn for no sane reason I can think of (and yes, I read your postgame justification). @Sandro: you are just as wrong as I was during the game to put too much stock into the setup: A full JK and a 1-shot: JJ (or DD if you prefer) A full roleblocker and a 1-shot: RR A 1-shot cop: C Makes: JJRRCTT, which according to the regular C9++ rules is a game without an SK. Therefore all speculation about the existence of a scum RBer based on setup is circumstantial, because Bugs clearly changed the setup in more ways than just replacing millers and medics. More ranting at Kush, Fuba and Release (and a bit at Prom) at endgame: However, by LYLO the C9++ setup speculation was irrelevant: there was a claimed jailer. Scum does not leave claimed jailers alive. Especially not 2 nights in a row. The no-kill was a good idea from DP, but town should 100% have lynched Release and then DP, or vice versa. I presume Prom has read my ranting in the obs qt about the whole "lets make cases" dealio... and DP has already chipped in for the scum viewpoint on how much fun shitting up the thread was. No need for cases, the game is played out. You reached endgame. You have 2 lynches to kill the last scum. Scum doesn't voluntarily let blues live. Therefore if Release isn't scum, DP is. Everything else, including how scummy thrawn, mkfuba and kush look is irrelevant. There is only very strange WIFOM that lets thrawn be scum in the endgame that DP orchestrated. For the wifom to be in any way believable, DP would have had to forego killing the last night as well (if you lynch Release as you damned well should), which means town gets a free mislynch, lynches Thrawn and then lynches DP at lylo instead of mylo). There were SO many things wrong with town at the endgame: nobody asked why the fuck a town RBer would not block Release again? He did so once and it apparently prevented a NK. Acro, flipped roleblocker, ALSO RB'd Release on a night without a kill. Therefore RB'ing anybody other than Release is fucking retarded from a town point of view. Yet, DP roleblocked FUBA. Why? Well, he needed to fucking kill somebody AND lynch Release. If he killed somebody with Release RB'd, then he would be in deep shit. Add everything together and it was 1000% obvious that DP was scum (even with a town read at the time of my death). But town switched their brains off at endgame, which will continue to make me bang my head into a wall every time I watch a looney tunes cartoon. Thanks for ruining fun cartoons, town. | ||
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The first time I used encryption in a mafia game it was actually a mix of encryption and steganography: I hid the encrypted message as if I was hitting random keys in anger. Is that okay? It took more effort than just throwing out an encrypted post. Why is the level of effort involved a relevant measure? In the end, well-hidden breadcrumbs (steganography) serve a similar purpose, but (generally) do require more effort. The purpose of both is a sort of time capsule: you want to prove that you had a thought at a previous point in the game. There is one important difference between steganography and cryptography that feels relevant to Mafia games: the advantage of steganography is that you keep it hidden that there even IS a secret message. Other times, like this game, the fact that there was a secret message was somewhat irrelevant: I just didn't want the content read yet. However, that is not the aspect that you don't like. The defense for steganography over cryptograpy that the message is hiding in plain sight is really a moot point. In this game alone, Release planted a breadcrumb that was intentionally meant to be found, yet nobody found it. I stumbled over the sentence, but never expected it to be hiding a breadcrumb. I think it was Prom who said he stumbled over the sentence and looked for a breadcrumb, but didn't find it. And that was one that was meant to be found. It takes a gigantic amount of effort to find a well-hidden breadcrumb... and the more text someone writes, the more effort is required. The possible messages that might be hidden are gigantic and the possible ways to hide them are equally gigantic. So now that we have established that a well-hidden crumb will not be found without it being pointed out post-hoc, why are these "in the spirit of the game", yet encryption isn't? TLDR: why is "effort" a good measure of whether a method for planting a time-capsule in a mafia game, is within the spirit of the game or not? Note: I have personally not yet taken a stance. I have seen encryption being used to completely break a themed game, and if a game can be broken in such a manner then encryption (and probably steganography, and any other way of timestamping a message so it can serve as a time capsule) should be disallowed. However, I want to understand why this is "against the spirit of the game" in the more general case. | ||
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On November 20 2012 12:39 Promethelax wrote: BlazingHand thinks that everything from out of game is cheating. Unless it is an ms paint picture. I don't like encryption just because it removes the skill form the game. If I sat down and hid a BC you could find it. You probably wouldn't but you could. Blue snipes are a beautiful thing from scum and encryption just removes the challenge from the game. Acro: I think you said "don't bother trying to decrypt that, I have experience with encryption and it is impossible" or something along those lines. I think that in itself is the answer, there is no chance to do anything except accept that whatever is there is there. I also wouldn't be too confidant, it is possible to translate those messages based on word length, never be too careful. What, other than a pen and paper (or a text editor), do you need from outside the game to decrypt a one-time pad message? If you mean that you need knowledge about the encryption method, I could say the same for steganography. What if I hid the letters of the message at every prime position? You'd need to know what primes are to even think of looking for a message there (and if you think primes are easy, how about fibonacci numbers or any of a myriad of less known sequences?) I disagree that breadcrumbs can be found. While theoretically possible, there are so many options for hiding them that it is impossible in practice. Theoretically, decryption is also breakable, but same story: there are so any possible keys that in practice it's impossible. See my answer to Prom below for a short explanation. Badly hidden breadcrumbs can be found, just as badly encrypted messages can be deciphered. It all comes down to the effort that you want to spend hunting crumbs or fiddling with decryption. Nothing from outside the game, other than pen and paper, is needed in either case. I finally dredged up the old discussion: clicky. Qatol brought up a far better point: due to the secretive nature of crumbing, scum *could* hide multiple crumbs for fakeclaiming, while giving multiple encrypted messages would never work. Therefore an organized town using encryption on a large scale to mass roleclaim at the start of the game would prevent fakeclaims from being invented at any point past D1. While true, it only seems to be a problem for the extremes and for the express purpose of breaking themed games like PTP. I agree that this use of encryption is against the spirit of the game, because the tool is being used to limit scum's abilities with pretty much no harm to town. However, encryption is not the only tool, see, for instance Space Ship Mafia, where the game was broken by PMs and a mass roleclaim. The problem here is the mass roleclaim, which in a normal game is almost always a dumb idea. With encryption it is good for town, though, but I think the main problem here is the mass roleclaim, not encryption. As for bluesniping: encryption is highly visible. There is really no point for blues to use encryption to hide their claims or night actions (unless VTs are doing it too, but this falls under the point of mass claiming). A blue using encryption would simply get shot. For an example, see GoT mafia, where Zentor got shot, mainly because of his encrypted message. + Show Spoiler [@prom] + It was a one-time pad, which can only be broken by a brute force attack. Now because the key was themed it was actually guessable, but still. Technically, I used the same key two or three times, so frequency analysis would have worked due to it not being a one-time pad, but in a message that size there is simply not enough text to use frequency analysis (or any other attack than guessing). | ||
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On November 20 2012 13:00 HiroPro wrote: marv sums it up lol. Even if you don't agree with that you should still consider the directly game-related aspects: how difficult it is for mafia to deal with encryption (not being able to figure out, very obvious when placed, allows town to store very complex messages, much more so than breadcrumbs) and the very fine line that encryption approaches with regards to private communication (keys that would be known to some people/not known to others). Only when taken to extremes. In most cases mafia has a really good solution for dealing with encryption. Shoot the bugger, because he's probably blue. The obviousness of the encrypted text is a downside, not an advantage. As for private comm: I have not yet seen a way of sharing a key with only some people in the thread and not with others in non-PM games. In PM games things clearly change, but then again, most of the game does. As for storing complex messages: it all boils down to effort again. Food for thought: If I were to breadcrumb a message, but instead of hiding it in plain text, I surround the message with random jibberish. Technically, this is steganography, not encryption, yet I can see no practical difference between the two. Would you feel breadcrumbing in a wall of random text is in the spirit of the game? | ||
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I am a mason. After chatting with my partner we decided to counterclaim, because we think Muso must be lying. Muso must be mafia and he's fakeclaiming to gain town credit. Looks like he was gambling that there wasn't an actual mason pair. Yeah Marv, it's harder to do this, but there's no reason to stick to syntax. I could have breadcrumbed "I am a liar" here if I got stuck on the letter y. No need to limit yourself to a specific sentence, as long as the meaning is communicated. Go try it! | ||
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Obviously, I created this rather rambling text to fit the breadcrumb, but it was not too hard to hide the letters on prime numbers. Using random letters to hide the breadcrumb, rather than actual, sensible text would have made this task far easier, though. In this game I had no need to hide the fact that there WAS a message, just the CONTENT of the message. I could therefore have used steganography like this: iamunxortptaacvumdatyesgbcqeown iwacstlaekyfiqwingg How would that have been distinguishable from encrypted text? No need to use primes either. I could have used any sequence. Even a regular one (and it would've made counting off random letters in the middle a lot easier too). | ||
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On November 20 2012 23:09 DarthPunk wrote: That whole mason thing was terrible. It caused a mislynch. It allowed scum to be on a safe wagon. Little information was shared. Like imagine if there as a competent scum team after that start. Well, that seems more the problem of Muso's claim, and town's unfamiliarity with his gambit in general than my counterclaim. Would you have killed muso at night if his claim had gone uncontested? Do you think we would have gotten a scumlynch D1, or a more informative wagon, if I had not counterclaimed? There was some suspicion on Drazak, but I feel scum could easily have pushed the D1 lynch to Release or Kush (although of course nobody knows what D1 would've looked like if I hadn't counterclaimed). In other words: if nobody had contested the mason claim, would his gambit have had the desired effect? From your qt it is clear you didn't shoot Mattchew because you thought he was blue, but rather because you were afraid of a veteran player like him. Which reminds me: risk, why did you shoot Zealos. It seems a strange choice for an SK to off. Were you worried about protection on the more vocal players? Or were you trying not to weaken town too much? | ||
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nryoexodtubftvvsghifldruefrkisnaloucwnbltyeedjkgzdehfsguir I think the essence of your argument still boils down to the amount of effort it takes to code: hiding a message in plain text is far harder than hiding a message in random gibberish (and it has nothing to do with outside sources, which are hard to define in any case). In plain text steganography, skill is rewarded. Hiding a good breadcrumb gives a sense of satisfaction, and hunting them can be fun. Encrypting text does not reward skill (or at least, the skill level is far lower) and most of the time attempting to decrypt them is an exercise in futility. I also think there is a second objection which is felt, but nobody has voiced: it is not fun to know there is a message hidden that you cannot read. Being told post-hoc that there was a message hidden there all the time while you just didn't know it, is very different to knowing there's a message, but only being given the key to reading it post-hoc. The former is kinda fun to find out, the latter is just "meh". Both serve similar purposes: a time capsule to be opened at a later date, however it is simply more FUN to have that time capsule be so well hidden that it is a surprise when it is opened. The two are quite related (and yes, trust a starcraft forum to link high skill level with fun ): allowing encryption lowers the skill level required to play at the highest level and thus "cheapens" the game, or "goes against the spirit" of the game. Would that be at the core of why you don't like encryption? Do you like automatically rallied SCVs in HotS? Or do you feel it is just yet another step to dumbing the game down too much? | ||
Acrofales
Spain17179 Posts
On November 20 2012 23:42 HiroPro wrote: No the fact that it is so obvious is a huge downside. If encryption was used, what would happen is that everyone would be required to post an encrypted message at the beginning of day 1 with role and at the end of night 1 with an action. vts would just post gibberish for their actions. With this type of system mafia is very restricted in what they can fake-claim. In regards to private communication: it simply boils down to phrasing questions or thoughts that give away what the key is, but not stuff that everyone would know. But as I said, that seems more a problem of mass claiming than of encryption per se. Plenty of (particularly themed) games can, and have, been broken with mass claims. Mass action claims are not much different. This is just an added variant on the theme. As for hiding the key in some way, that only really works with players who know each other VERY well and share inside jokes that cannot be picked up from a filter. I can only really think of doing that with 2 or 3 players on the forum. Anyway, this would really go against the "spirit" of the no PM rule and is thus already forbidden. I could also speak in Dutch to Clarity, or Portuguese to Sandroba and with enough silly spelling variations google translate would be screwed. Yet, that goes so much against the spirit of the no-PM rule that we would almost certainly get modkilled, with good reason. | ||
Acrofales
Spain17179 Posts
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