EPTAcme Mini Mafia, Inc - Page 8
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Acrofales
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On November 07 2012 05:44 Release wrote: + Show Spoiler + On November 07 2012 03:22 Acrofales wrote: Okay... Release. We have established that you don't like my style of writing cases. Is there anything that you actually find scummy, rather than unlikeable? As for the dichotomy, it entirely 100% covers all cases. I just posted the 4 possible situations (discounting SK, who for all intents and purposes has the same information as town at that point). If you feel the conclusions I draw from one of them is wrong (namely, as you indicate, that I am scum and was pulling the bluff of the century), you are free to say so. You're wrong, btw. Now a bit more about the cases. I'm not going to claim my case on Hopeless1der was terribly strong. At the time I wasn't actually planning on voting with it. It was more an update of my findings, because earlier I had listed Hopeless1der as reading townie and I found that I no longer did so. It was more a case to gather feedback and spark discussion than a "lets lynch Hopeless" case at the time. However, as time went on I found Prom looking slightly less scummy. My entire thought process is layed out in the thread: I even wanted to no-lynch at one point, because nobody was talking, I was not feeling secure enough about Prom anymore and I thought it was mylo. When people came back and started talking and I learned it wasn't mylo, I figured Prom was back on the table. However, the longer the discussion with Prom (and the other people active at the time) went, the less I felt a Prom lynch. My only alternative at that time was Hopeless1der, whose defense I was not particularly happy with (I could explain it post-hoc, but what's the point, he flipped scum). Why were you off the table at the time? 1. Your case on Kush, with connections and all that jazz. It seemed too farfetched to be some crazyness made up by scum. 2. The main point of my case on you was based on a misunderstanding. 3. Your defense seemed adequate at the time. I presume that explains my thought process enough? You still haven't really said what you think of Drazak. You agree that he needs to be killed asap? About the nonconclusive case about Muso? That was just putting your thoughts out too? The "not strong" is partly my point about your cases: You don't hold yourself particularly accountable to them. Compare youself to risk: He's extremely terse but every post at least has something fairly concrete about it. Your posts are pretty much the opposite (except for the case against me) which brings me to: the case against me: The main point about the case against me is that you made a definitive Release is scum with no "maybe a townie too." Your other posts do not have the same conclusiveness. I don't feel that he needs to be killed asap. However, he still has not given any reasoning for his posts. If he posts nothing before the resolution period (he might be busy, and boy does he not like kills based on irl stuff getting in the way), then he needs to be killed. So essentially, i'm fine with a Drazak kill that gets sent in 1 minute before the deadline (given he doesnt post...) I am perfectly accountable for my cases. I read prplhz as scummy scum. I tunneled Prom for 1 1/2 cycles over it, reading him over and over. When I finally laid off and read you, I thought I found something that trumped everything so far. It was wrong, but I was absolutely running with it until I realized it didn't jibe with the actual votecount at the end of the day, which made me look at timestamps. That kicked the trump card out from underneath the case, but at the time I was 100% convinced by it. The Muso case: I said at the time that I had a slight TOWN read on him based on the whole ordeal, but my town read wasn't strong enough. It was also not so much a case as a summary of my thoughts. When I make a case I am 100% convinced and don't bullshit around with a "case for town". Those posts are to gather responses and allow me to make up my mind. Cases happen when I HAVE made up my mind (there's one coming in the nightpost, don't worry your pretty little head too much). I still can't make much sense of the last paragraph, so ignoring it. A nightpost is incoming (it is written already). On November 07 2012 05:57 Release wrote: I wasn't there at the voting deadline because I was at school. Had i been there, i would probably have voted for Hopeless when he came back to the thread and didn't defend himself. However, i would have switched to promethelax after a lynch against Hope was secured. It's just how i roll. My top three scum right now are: Prome, Acro, and Kush. However, Drazak will shoot to the top if he does not provide a tenable response before the deadline. My reaction to the lynch: Got a scum so we live for another day. That's good. Hope had been pretty silent all game and he seemed to have planned some scumslips (in hindsight ofc). It seems like he was bussed by Acro (to me, although no one seems to share that view). + Show Spoiler + Just because he is scum is not a reason for us to want to ignore everything he says: at the time he was certainly going to die and he should be thinking that his words would be considered with disdain at best (aka not considered seriously). Not to say that this is entirely trustworthy, but Hope makes this case work and Acro get's off free as an impossible scum. Here, I'll help you out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ockham's_razor Question: why does Drazerk have to post before the daypost? Does it make any difference whether he posts today or tomorrow? If he dies we see his flip anyway, so that can't be it. | ||
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On November 07 2012 06:29 drazak wrote: I'm sorry guys, I just got really frustrated with you guys, I'm town, yes I flip flopped my vote around, but there's no possibly scum motive there, it's just town who didn't want a mislynch. I've been honest with you the whole time. get off my fucking back please. How did you think voting Prom was going to result in anything other than a no-lynch? | ||
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You say his excuse is what triggered your unvote. Please explain that better. | ||
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On November 07 2012 06:52 drazak wrote: I don't like lynching people who might not deserve the lynch. Okay. Why is someone who goes completely offline for 14 hours deserving of the lynch, while someone who shows up 15 minutes before the deadline is not. Honestly, the latter guy is far more likely to be scum. Town is, on the whole, more likely to lose interest in the game. | ||
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On November 07 2012 06:51 kushm4sta wrote: are there questions people want me to address? if so restate them and I will answer anything. Why are people not thinking dp is scummy. Prome you said he wasn't scummy anymore.why the fuck is that? because he came back right as I was trying to form a bandwagon on him? now he is just saying lynch draz gg and not even trying to scumhunt elsewhere or consider draz might be town. Summary: why don't you think draz is scum because he totally is. Interesting, you have an opinion that doesn't seem to be based on flavour. Why do you think DP is scummy? | ||
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+ Show Spoiler [play by play] + D1: he votes Musho and never changes off him. No use at all. Not much of an analysis on Release, but some. Clears him as acting townie. Soft defends Promethelax. Given D2 behaviour, this looks like buddying. Soft defends Draz with NO REASON. I first had an analysis written up here that this confirmed Draz as scum, but Hopeless' later behaviour does not actually support that hypothesis. Soft defends Kush D2 has some more info: - Pressure on Promethelax. If Prom's behaviour at the vote was not enough to exonerate him, this is. It was enough of a case to keep flying under the radar. This is not the kind of case you want to make when bussing your teammate. Those you make with a high profile and keep pushing them (otherwise what the hell is the point of bussing?), so Prom is pretty much confirmed town based on this. - Says Acro is town. Soft buddying (yes, I say so myself) - Very interesting post: On November 05 2012 03:12 Hopeless1der wrote: I didn't find any breadcrumbs. However, I have a question: Any merit to this statement from Mattchew? Would wbg handpick roles? Why repeat this at this time? My theory: because actually none of us are scum (although I have a theory about risk.nuke below). Emphasizing this post by confirmed town veteran could lead to more pressure on Prom and leads automatically into suspicion of me and risk: all three of which HE knows are not on his team. - Soft pressure on Release. Null tell imho: could equally well be distancing. - States a will to lynch Drazak. This one is harder to read. However, he keeps his vote on Promethelax. Can be distancing. He once again does not give a reason for wanting Drazak dead. - I love the guilty undertone of his response to me. But it doesn't contain any associations. When the bandwagon starts building he suddenly unvotes Promethelax in favour of a no-lynch. Not sure what to make of this, but chalking it up to "must save my own ass and the Prom wagon already failed". - Once again, he mentions Draz as a lynch candidate. He could be lashing about at whatever he can get his hands on as he throws me up too. Maybe the scum plan was to bus Draz if things went south based on Draz being under continuous suspicion in any case. However, it is a LOT of wifom to draw any conclusions at all from this. - For anybody actually reading the filter, I never made a case on Fuba. Don't bother looking for it. Anyway, last minute bollocks case on me to try a desperate attempt at a swing vote (picked me to get on Prom's good side). Desperate attempt to get out from under a lynch... and guess what, that kind of thing is not a bus. Connect the dots. Suspiciously little interaction: - Kushm4sta (very suspicious: how do you play this game without addressing Kush... unless you are deliberately trying to avoid it?). Have to say that analyzing interactions is not my strong point, so someone please look into this. Hopeless1der shied away from interacting in general. It's hard to get much else from his interactions for me. TLDR: Strong read: Prom is not scum Weak read: Risk is not scum, Drazak is scum (high wifom quotient) The Town Promethelax, Thrawn, Acro - no explanation required. The Not-scum Release. He is currently one of my primary candidates for SK, but I don't think he's scum: + Show Spoiler [quote] + On November 05 2012 14:40 Release wrote: My post realllly didn't cause the move. It was Muso's claim. If anything, the post attracted some attention for being a distraction itself (which, ofc, i claimed that it was). About the trap: I'm the one who said, "oh, Kush is trying to trick a mason into claiming." Then i said "w/e. I concede that it was an honest mistake." Then this. At the time, i thought that this was a (lousy) attempt to get me to go back to my petty complaint against Kush. I was working under the assumption that he was not a smurf, that he was a complete newb, and that the scum also saw him as a complete newb. With those, i believed that the scum believed he would be more useful as a sacrificial lamb than as someone who might be a liability. As you can see, I don't tend to have the typical reaction, so pardon me if i don't want to add fluff to my filter by saying "what the.." I actually wanted to have some thoughts. + Show Spoiler + Why should there be a correct reaction? People react to things differently. I don't see a townie motivation for saying that there should be (one) correct reaction. <snip> This is a very non-scum reaction. It shows clearly that he is not correctly putting himself in the scum mindset. Faking that when actually IN a scum mindset is incredibly hard. He was also so uninterested in the vote that he didn't even show up for it. He was fairly certain HE was not getting lynched. This is also not scum: they care not only about themselves, but also their teammates (read below about Drazak). This, however, is the main point in favour of him being an SK. He is the most apathetic player this game. He makes cases, but is entirely uninterested in pushing them. Hell, he makes cases against people who he knows CANNOT be pushed (due to green checks... or well... me being town). He is fine coasting by this game, making weird plays that make no sense, but don't get him lynched. mkfuba Votes Hopeless1der. Unvotes to vote Drazak. Is then an early adopter of the Hopeless1der wagon. Assuming Drazak is indeed scum, this is just too incredible to go with. Master bus, or not-scum. If Drazak for some incredible reason flips town, then reconsider this, but as it is, this voting behaviour tells me he is not scum. However, he is incredibly flippant about just plain sheeping. He was also really happy to follow Thrawn, another strong town read, when the Prom wagon seemed a bit stuck and the Hopeless wagon never came off the ground. In his favour, he had Drazak as a scum read pretty consistently throughout the day. I don't really like mkfuba as an SK. I feel he is trying too hard. Feels more like town than Release, despite the question. This might be bias, because I also always want to know things that have nothing to do with me, simply because I get bugged by things I don't know when I am concocting some theory or other. The great unknowns DarthPunk I was going to put DarthPunk in town, as I seemed to have a town vibe. However, upon rereading his filter I am no longer sure. A lot of the things that I read as town are actually highly ambiguous. Please read his filter well and make very sure before trusting him. One thing, though: if Drazak is scum, then DP either pulled off a pro-bus before it even was a bus, or he is not scum (analysis will have to indicate whether he's SK or town). risk.nuke If Release is the most apathetic player, risk.nuke is a pretty close second: On November 07 2012 03:47 risk.nuke wrote: Why? Scum should get the same conclusion about fuba. I haven't really read the thread or scum hunted since last night. So probably no dawn post. I just wanted to make sure people didn't miss fuba claim SK. However, I also don't yet read him as scum. For one, I agree with Prom that he keeps saying townie things at the right time. This could be a sign of him flying under the radar. His posting style is ambiguous enough that I feel he could still be anything. I feel scum is the least likely option, partially because of Hopeless1der's repetition of Matt's post. I don't think he would've done that if there was actually scum on that list. kushm4sta He was || this close to be put under the scum header. I cannot see a town explanation for almost anything he has done this game. The only saving grace is the green check on him. Pretty much the first mention of Hopeless1der in the game: On November 05 2012 04:21 kushm4sta wrote: other scumreads are hopeless and mkfuba Incriminating without a reason or voting. Easy way to distance from a scumbuddy. No reason to do this as town at all. Note that this was somewhere at the start of D2. Hopeless is up for lynch and basically the only reason that kush has to jump ship is the claim. I have detailed my thoughts around that earlier, but what happened to the Hopeless1der being his second-strongest scum read? Granted, I can make very little sense of Kush's play in general. This harping on claims is so foreign to me that I cannot see how it works from a scum mindset either (or SK). It is just extremely weird, and that makes kush incredibly hard to analyze. I think a comparison to BillMurray is adequate here, with the exception that I am actually getting to know BM and think I can take a decent stab at making sense of him. Kush could, literally, be anything. The only read I am really getting is that he feels like he is being a teamplayer. He does not feel like an SK. There are some ways of verifying that, to some extent. If the scum KP is missing it can be due to an ace roleblock, or due to them shooting the SK. If the roleblock isn't claimed and the roleblocker doesn't die that same cycle, then it is almost certainly due to a bulletproof SK. A bulletproof SK means Kush is not the SK, in a similar way to the second scum not flipping framer means Kush is not scum. I feel the chances of Kush being scum skyrocket if there IS a framer. I feel Kush made an excellent frame target N1: he was under enough suspicion that he might be targeted, yet not too obvious (like Prom would have been). However, the Drazak-Kush interactions have been very un-scum-partner-like. This needs further analysis. The Scum Drazak In case this lynch still needs nailing down, here is a full case on Drazak's play this game. I know most of the points have been made by other people at one time or another, however for D1 I had Drazak down as noob town. I am now rereading him and find myself agreeing quite a lot with those other people, instead of forgiving Drazak's foibles. On November 02 2012 04:41 drazak wrote: It's just like breadcrumbing, Zealos. I don't see anything wrong with it and I'm not sure how it's not in the spirit of the game, how else would mason partners confirm eachother? Nah, I'm fine with it, I'm not fine with muso, lying about how many games he has and then screwing over himself, useless to town and probably scummy. Only thing is that I'm not sure why his scumbuddies aren't reigning him in if he is scum, probably doesn't communicate with them. Either way, he's pretty useless and possibly detrimental to us. ##vote muso Someone harped on Drazak for for the last sentence. I feel that is an unfortunate choice of words which could have been made by town. However, the complete lack of a problem with the glaring obnoxious lie that is being lared bare is telling. Muso's greater lie was being a mason (and at this point the lie wasn't even confirmed, I had just counterclaimed). However, a scum Drazak knows Muso is town and thus expects him to truly be a mason. He passes over that lie in favour of the lesser lie. The mason claim is only mentioned when he gets called out later. On November 02 2012 23:17 drazak wrote: I don't see any reason to change my vote, I honestly have no freaking clue why muso did what he did, but there's nothing town about it, if he is town, he's doing a very bad job establishing himself as town. I hope he isn't town though, a D1 mafia kill would definitely ensure our town victory. The last sentence feels insincere. I am terribad at emotional analysis from text, though. Just the logical non-sequitur combined with the false dichotomy really rubs me the wrong way and makes me feel the word "hope" here is insincere. However, this is a very minor tell in comparison to most of the tells in this list. On November 03 2012 06:07 drazak wrote: Release actually tried to scumhunt, I'm seeing town on him, even though he still wants to vote for me. I don't think he's done anything to cause confusion, and I think he really wants to find a mafia right now, which is what I'm trying to do. Mattchew is also looking town, although I'd like him to be a bit more active, I don't think he'd say that he likes his gut instincts D1 if he didn't believe in them and have somewhat decent evidence, less town than release but definitely a town read. Hope has about the right amount of defensiveness for a townie, he's gone to lurk mode around lynch time which makes me a little nervous, everyone else seems to be here and willing to talk except him. Not sure what he's up to but when he starts posting again I hope he has a good explaination, I'm neutral on him right now. Thrawn has been trying his damnedest to scumhunt for a D1 hunt, not sure what he thinks he might actually accomplish, but he's asking questions like I should be (but I don't because I suck  ) and trying to make things happen. I find him distinctly town at the moment.risk.nuke has not a lot to go on in his filter, and every single one of his comments is 1 line and most of them are fluffy. I think this is even worse than my posts have been. I find him 2nd scummiest after muso. Kush is just doing his fucking trolly ass shit. Town meta for him 100% Zealos doesn't vote anyone and isn't happy with Acro or Muso, not sure what to think here, he wants to vote two of my town reads, not sure I like this, but might just not be following that closely. It is hard to get more non-committal than the bit on Hopeless1der in this list. He's green, but might be red due to lurk. On November 03 2012 06:26 drazak wrote: "Our" contributions to the thread? no immediate correction? sounds like a scum slip to me >.< I'll do it anyway, assuming you mean you and your predecessor. Sounds like a scumslip? However, Drazak KNOWS it's not, because he knows Prom is not scum. Therefore it only SOUNDS like a scumslip and can comfortably be ignored. Now, if Drazak had a strong townread on Prom at this point I could understand letting this slide. However: On November 03 2012 05:38 drazak wrote: I can't make a read on you, prom, you have like 6 posts. <snip> Immediately afterwards he buddies Prom pretty hard: On November 03 2012 06:33 drazak wrote: Well prom, you do have a lot more posts than I thought, i think I missed a few el flamewheelen style. Anyway, I'm not voting you because I think you're doing a genuine job scumhunting, I know you're on my case but you're just trying to do a good thing, and while you have the wrong target, your scum hunting is good since you don't know my meta very well and I'm pretty much always lynch bait. I don't find anything scummy with you bro. This just feels WAAYYY too chummy given the context of the game at that point and Drazak's earlier assertions. On November 03 2012 06:43 drazak wrote: you mean "you're" not "your", "your" shows possesion, "you're" is "you are". This kinda post just really bugs me. It is not contributing. I don't think it's scummy, it just really pissed me off at the time, and every time I read the filter. On November 05 2012 22:15 drazak wrote: Hey nuke, I kind of like your opinion on Prom, but I'm not sold on him being scum yet, do you have anything else to add to his case? I think he might be town still, do you have more to add to his case? Please convince me. I think Hope right now is my #1 read because he still hasn't posted jack shit, he comes back and is like "lol, I haven't posted and I should feel bad" and then doesn't post more, I'm gonna park a vote on him until I hear more from him, I want to know what his top reads are and wtf he thinks he's doing. |##vote hopeless1der Pretty important post in Drazak's filter. I read it as him testing the water on a Prom lynch... he knows he is flipping 180 from his total town read of the day before, so he cannot do it without "being convinced". However, if the Prom lynch is gonna happen, he wants to be able to seal it. This is ALSO the post in which he votes Hope as his "number 1 scum read" for lurking. We all know what happened to that #1 scum read. On November 06 2012 06:39 drazak wrote: I don't want to vote for prom but I will if it means a lynch, I think he's town and anyone who thinks otherwise is probably scum  (Herp derp. On November 06 2012 07:56 drazak wrote: Fuck it, I don't think hope is mafia. ##unvote ##vote prom we need a lynch though KABOOM MUTHAFUCKA. I CLAIM SCUM. WOOOOOOOOOO!!! On November 06 2012 07:58 drazak wrote: I'm scum because I'm not sure about a lurker lynch? k, whatever. ##unvote ##vote hopeless1der you better hope he comes up red or else I'm cominga t you dp Wait what the fuck?! Did I really just do that? Oh fuck oh fuck oh fuck oh fuck DAMAGE CONTROL. PLEASE NOBODY NOTICE! Oh shit, too late. On November 06 2012 09:39 drazak wrote: I'd have to be a monumentally stupid scum to jump that vote as scum, lol. There is, of course, this. However, you'd have to be a monumentally stupid town to jump that vote too. At least we agree on something  However, all jokes aside, Drazak has still not explained how Hopeless1der showing up and saying "I was in a meeting, please don't lynch me" convinced him that Hopeless1der was not a lurker. On November 06 2012 08:39 drazak wrote: I didn't see his post about being in a meeting, and then I did and didn't want to vote for him because that sucks. Apparently no seeing a post and then reacting to it is scummy now The logic befuddles me: someone who is completely inactive all through the lynch is somehow a BETTER lynch candidate than someone who shows up 15 minutes before the lynch with a (probably bullshit) excuse? Lets just use Ockham's razor here: Drazak is new to playing scum. It is his very first time on TL as scum. The lynch on his scumbuddy suddenly gathered momentum just before the deadline while the whole day it was sitting cushy on a townie. He panicked and that was it. GG Drazak | ||
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I also rather like your theory (haven't finished reading yet). I will reread thrawn. I had a townread on him based on a number of things, but I had not thought of the scum/SK cooperation. Kush, what do you think of that theory? | ||
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That means we have a vig. It is theoretically possible, but we'll have to see whether the KP works out tonight. Anybody feel like claiming vig? | ||
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So.. if I die, any vig claim had better have breadcrumbed shooting Zealos or Mat. I still think a vig shooting either of them is unlikely and any claim should be very heavily scrutinized. | ||
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On November 07 2012 07:35 thrawn2112 wrote: acro what does my claim have anything to do with nks from N1? Goddamn it, stop asking me questions. If mkfuba's theory is correct, then you shot Kush on N1: you cannot be a cop and scum at once. That leaves missing KP (the SK is of vital importance to his theory). | ||
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Regardless. ##vote Drazak | ||
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On November 07 2012 07:44 mkfuba07 wrote: Was the trap for me? If so I'm sad =/ No. Trap was for whoever claimed vig. I thought an unlimited vig claim would put us at 7 non-VT roles, which according to the c9++ rules means no SK. I thought a scum might claim vig. But never mind, I wasn't thinking straight on multiple accounts with it. Back to good oldfashioned analysis. Also, a vig looks doubtful now that we had 0 kills tonight, but I will read thrawn with more attention to detail than I have recently. | ||
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On November 07 2012 09:25 kushm4sta wrote: I just noticed that I got a pm. I was roleblocked Why the fuck would anyone rb me?? Lol. You have to ask? | ||
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