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Hrmmm. Was reading over LC mafia. I am astounded by how well DP and mkfuba played that game. How the hell are they doing bugger all this time round?
However, the meta is inconclusive. Mkfuba's general activity level has dropped between LC and this game, however his way of posting has not. Only tell is that he is more apologetic and trying to play the noob card, which is something he was NOT doing in LC at all. Not sure that's enough to seal the deal.
Of course all townies want scum to post a list of reads as a last will. However, they don't ever (unless they're stupid, or think they can wheedle out of the lynch). You don't ask scum for a list of reads, because it is pointless. Townies ask people who they think might flip town for a last minute list of reads.
The no-lynch option.
I think we can safely assume it is currently 6-3-1, given the C9++ setup and what we know about the roles so far. If we no-lynch and the SK and scum both hit a townie, we are at 4-3-1.
This eliminates 2 players from the list of possible scum and puts us in a VERY precarious spot. The only advantage we have in this situation over the current one is that the SK is kinda forced to play for town until it's down to X-1-1.
The main advantage of playing no-lynch is that we have a chance of the SK eliminating a scum, or scum eliminating the SK. The SK at this point should be playing with town and trying to reduce the power of scum. Scum might also want to think about taking out the SK in order to remove the competing KP.
Another aspect of no-lynch is that it gives us 72 more hours to make sense of the game. More time = more posts = more time for town to play townie and scum to play scummy. The main question is whether we think our judgement will improve in that time, or we have a decent bead on scum right now. Lynching scum or the SK (less good, but still better than no-lynch) would be better than no-lynch.
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On November 06 2012 02:52 Promethelax wrote:Acro: you have a real history of coming into the thread posting something and leaving. Why is it that you don't want to interact with people? I'm still here for 20 minutes before my midterm + Show Spoiler +Fuba, respond to my case in your first post back in the thread. Don't give yourself excuses.
I'll interact with you. I was looking over Fuba's meta and trying to make up my mind about you, hopeless or a no-lynch. I didn't manage yet.
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Oh wait, lol. I didn't read the endgame. DP was scum in LC mafia. Haha, that's funny.
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On November 06 2012 03:25 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 03:19 Acrofales wrote:On November 06 2012 02:52 Promethelax wrote:Acro: you have a real history of coming into the thread posting something and leaving. Why is it that you don't want to interact with people? I'm still here for 20 minutes before my midterm + Show Spoiler +Fuba, respond to my case in your first post back in the thread. Don't give yourself excuses. I'll interact with you. I was looking over Fuba's meta and trying to make up my mind about you, hopeless or a no-lynch. I didn't manage yet. Are those your only three options?
Atm yes. I prefer a no-lynch to mkfuba or release. How about you. What do you think of a no-lynch?
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Hrmm, I want a no-lynch. I looked over risk.nuke and am wondering why exactly I had him down as town. He has been very defensive and has trumped up what he has done.
He basically made 1 post at prplhz in which he didn't accuse him of being scum, yet that is suddenly:
On November 04 2012 00:26 risk.nuke wrote:
Hillarious how you can bring up a post of me pressuring people, dismiss it as scummy and then accuse me of never pressuring people. Two wrongs with one stone. Additionally I was pressuring prplhz hard just before he quit.
Then I was leading on the Muso lynch arguing for it because it was the only thing to do. What the hell more do you expect from me? Want me to talk about the weather.
The fact that nobody even mentions him is similarly dodgy: he is doing a great job of flying under the radar.
That makes me unsure about most of the people in the thread. Not sure 72 more hours will fix that, but it sure as hell won't make it worse. Also, I might get killed and then I don't have to worry aobut it anymore
##vote no lynch
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On November 06 2012 03:25 Promethelax wrote:
Do you really feel that lynching the SK would be beneficial to us? I really don't want to lynch into confirmed KP which, assuming the SK isn't retarded is aiming at scum.
Are you, Acro, really so unsure of your scum reads that you want to no lynch? You have been pretty confidant all game that I am scum, why drop it now in favour of a no lynch?
In asking Muso for reads I 1) did think he was likely to flip town at that point, his lynch had been pushed through too easily and 2) assumed that if he was scum and had made the worst scum play in ever he might post reads too.
In LC DP was scum and Fuba was town. Both have flipped on their LC meta. Fuba is not as bad a player as he is showing in this game and he doesn't give himself apologetics as town.
Ah, I missed this post.
Yes. I have too many scumreads for there to be scum. I thought I had it figured out just before I flipped the whole thing the finger. I was going to make the post:
Town: risk.nuke, thrawn, Acro
Sort of greenish gray: DP, Drazak, Release
Too weird to make sense of atm: Kush
Null: mkfuba
Scum: Hopeless1der, Promethelax, possibly Kush
SK: possibly Kush, possibly mkfuba.
However, upon reading risk.nuke and not getting the town vibe I had earlier, that throws a wrench in my plans. I was confident enough to lynch you if risk.nuke is town. However, with the possibility that he is scum, that screws up the possible scumteam. You and he seem unlikely scum together. Either of you could be scum with Hopeless1der. However, he is not my strongest scumread based on playstyle alone. Add to that that any of the ones in the greenish gray group could be scum as well and there are too many unknowns. That group needs culling. So yes. No-lynch.
Killing an SK takes KP out of the equation. The SK may be aimed at scum, but it's like a vig. Good chance he misses his shot and hits a townie instead. Taking that out of the equation is safer for us (as well as scum).
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On November 06 2012 04:33 Promethelax wrote:
Acro: is thrawn just in your town list because of his claim? If not what else has made him look townie to you?
Did you read my list post at night? Nothing much has changed since then. That is rather shocking, as I hoped he would participate more. I haven't actually paid much attention to him. Why do you think he's not town?
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Despite what Risk says, it IS mylo. If we mislynch, we are dependent on the SK and scum to try to kill each other. I know wincons are a bit wonky. In fact, can we get a clarification on wincons for this game assuming an SK is present? OP states mafia wins when they equal or outnumber town. However, with the presence of an SK it is theoretically possible for town to still win in that case (or at the very least, for mafia to lose). OP also states that town wins when they kill all mafia. I presume we also have to kill the SK?
However, if everybody is opposed to a no-lynch then lets find a lynch candidate. I am not convinced by DP. Someone please address the points I made regarding him earlier. He is one of the few players who has put some effort into pressuring and scumhunting.
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On November 06 2012 05:24 kushm4sta wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 05:15 Promethelax wrote:On November 06 2012 05:07 kushm4sta wrote:
mkfuba doesn't look scummy anymore from that last post. Yes he does. He hasn't done anything and now when there is a case on him he says that it is wrong but tells me that I can't know his thoughts. I know what he posted and what he has told town and what he has said is totally different from what he says now. He looks like he is covering his ass and trying to stay alive while not doing anything to help town. His scumminess can be explained by inactivity. I see someone who doesnt have time to figure things out. All he can do is follow the game. Then when someone misrepresents his meta it's easy to write a lot because he doesn't have to think about it. But he's not writing a lot about the game because he just doesn't know.
Holy crap. Kush makes sense.
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On November 06 2012 05:53 thrawn2112 wrote:
Acro how are you so sure there's an sk? The lack of a vig claim?
Yes.
And the improbability of a vig shooting Zealos.
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On November 06 2012 05:56 risk.nuke wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 05:54 Acrofales wrote:On November 06 2012 05:53 thrawn2112 wrote:
Acro how are you so sure there's an sk? The lack of a vig claim? Yes. And the improbability of a vig shooting Zealos. Why, did you think zealos was town?
I didn't have a scumread on him. That is actually a giant towntell on Zealos, as I mentioned in my nightpost. I needed more to get him out of null, but was hardly surprised by him flipping town (although I was surprised by him being killed. All he had in his filter was a wish for Prome and Kush to die).
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On November 06 2012 05:58 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 05:54 Acrofales wrote:On November 06 2012 05:53 thrawn2112 wrote:
Acro how are you so sure there's an sk? The lack of a vig claim? Yes. And the improbability of a vig shooting Zealos. why do you think an sk would shoot zealos? different reasons than a vig? aren't they both shooting scum? I doubt zealos was a sk intentional blue-snipe
Don't really want to speculate about NKs as it leads to giant wifom. However, if you want, I expect scum was simply shooting at someone who was fairly townie, but no chance of protection: Zealos. Mattchew got shot by the SK for being a veteran.
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On November 06 2012 05:58 HiroPro wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 05:52 Acrofales wrote:
can we get a clarification on wincons for this game assuming an SK is present? OP states mafia wins when they equal or outnumber town. However, with the presence of an SK it is theoretically possible for town to still win in that case (or at the very least, for mafia to lose). OP also states that town wins when they kill all mafia. I presume we also have to kill the SK? Show nested quote +The mafia win when they outnumber the town or they reach a scenario when this becomes inevitable. If a SK is present in the game, town must eliminate both the SK and all mafia in order to win.
And scum?
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On November 06 2012 06:03 HiroPro wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 06:02 Acrofales wrote:On November 06 2012 05:58 HiroPro wrote:On November 06 2012 05:52 Acrofales wrote:
can we get a clarification on wincons for this game assuming an SK is present? OP states mafia wins when they equal or outnumber town. However, with the presence of an SK it is theoretically possible for town to still win in that case (or at the very least, for mafia to lose). OP also states that town wins when they kill all mafia. I presume we also have to kill the SK? The mafia win when they outnumber the town or they reach a scenario when this becomes inevitable. If a SK is present in the game, town must eliminate both the SK and all mafia in order to win. And scum? What do you mean?
What is scum's wincon in the presence of an SK?
Well, Drazak, if the game OUTRIGHT ends when scum outnumber town, then we are playing a different game from if we can go to a 3-3-1 situation without outright losing. If in that 3-3-1 situation the SK votes with town for a scumster, then SK and scum eliminate each other and finally town lynch the last scum, we actually win. However, if scum wins the moment they equal town's number, then the SK's chances of winning are far smaller... as are, unfortunately, town's.
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All I know, is that with 1 1/2 hours to go I am feeling neither of the lynch candidates. I feel like Prom slapped that last case together, however convincing it is, to get out from underneath getting lynched himself. He was on Drazak, but that never got traction, so he switched to fuba, which didn't gain traction and is now on the DP bandwagon.
The whole DP bandwagon stinks and is reinforcing my opinion that Prom is probably scum. In fact, he is playing a very similar scumgame to my own scumplay: look townie and make damned good elaborate cases. It's just so damned hard to nail a player like that down (look at Marv and my own unbeaten scum records).
Anyway, if people don't want a no-lynch, then I am back on Prom.
##unvote no-lynch
##vote Promethelax
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Okay people, if you don't want a no-lynch, show your votes. The fact that the votecount is still all over the map is simply an indication that you DO want a no-lynch but are too chickenshit to say so.
I am totally behind a Promethelax lynch, and to a lesser extent Hopeless1der. Anything else I cannot get behind at the moment unless you find the mother of all scumslips. The case Prom made on DP reads convincingly, however scum can easily pick at the weak spots of a player, because they never have to consider he is also town. Prom jumped on DP out of fucking nowhere. He was ALL over fuba, but that didn't gain traction, so BLAM, monster case on DP.
Here is what Prom had to say about DP just a little bit before the case:
On November 06 2012 03:25 Promethelax wrote:
Do you really feel that lynching the SK would be beneficial to us? I really don't want to lynch into confirmed KP which, assuming the SK isn't retarded is aiming at scum.
Are you, Acro, really so unsure of your scum reads that you want to no lynch? You have been pretty confidant all game that I am scum, why drop it now in favour of a no lynch?
In asking Muso for reads I 1) did think he was likely to flip town at that point, his lynch had been pushed through too easily and 2) assumed that if he was scum and had made the worst scum play in ever he might post reads too.
In LC DP was scum and Fuba was town. Both have flipped on their LC meta. Fuba is not as bad a player as he is showing in this game and he doesn't give himself apologetics as town.
Why the sudden change of heart?
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On November 06 2012 06:26 DarthPunk wrote:
Lynching prom is a terrible idea.
You're implying that lynching you is a better idea than lynching Prom? Sounds like a guilty conscience.
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On November 06 2012 06:31 kushm4sta wrote:
I'm here and reading.
If prome is scum, why would he risk his claim to take my heat off acro?
As with anything, to score brownie points with the likes of you. Cannot score too many brownie points, of course, or you end up lynching scum all the time. However, the chance of him getting a lynch on me going, even with your flavour support, was rather absent.
I do agree that it is weird, because you were also distracting pretty much everybody with your flow of inane flavour speculation. That alone is worth gold to scum.
Let me think that bit over.
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On November 06 2012 06:46 risk.nuke wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 06:43 mkfuba07 wrote:I've been here the whole time. I take a while to read and write. Not sure if I've mentioned that  Yeah, then why did you refuse to make yourself and your opinions known when specifically requested several times. Right now you smell like last minute show-up-to-vote. Granted both townies and scum can do it but it sure as hell isn't something that makes you look townie in my eyes.
To be fair, he HAS done that in the last few pages. Shit just moved fast. I was going to jump on him for his Drazak vote, but then I realized he had posted that he wants to lynch Drazak, just half a page back.
GG. Good try at baiting scum, though, thrawn.
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EPT
