EPTAcme Mini Mafia, Inc - Page 3
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Acrofales
Spain17984 Posts
| ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17984 Posts
| ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17984 Posts
Seeing as it's going to be night and giving my scumreads right now will be completely irrelevant for the flip, I will post them at the end of the night. | ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17984 Posts
On November 03 2012 11:49 Mattchew wrote: But fuck you didn't take the easy scum way out by saying "I didn't vote to lynch him though herp derp" bah why you gotta score townie points and fuck up my tunnel vision You have anything to say about someone else in this game? Can you update your case against Release now that we are more than 3 hours into the game? | ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17984 Posts
On November 03 2012 19:48 Promethelax wrote: This is a huge town tell on Kush. These were the thoughts I had as well but had not yet expressed due to the awful timing of that TL drop. Sorry I have been gone so long, work is a thing I have to do. I don't know of any way for mafia to know someone's role at that point. Kush. My name doesn't fit the theme you are looking at. How does that affect your read? I would also point to Acro giving out the idea that Kush and I would look scummy if Muso flipped town. Setting up the next mislynch. Figured I'd answer you two as a 2-for-1. You are both idiots for thinking Muso flipping green makes me look scummy. I don't think I am "confirmed town", because you can wifom a scum motive into pretty much anything, but you have to admit that Ockham's razor dubs me as pretty damn townie at this point. I was writing up my entire thought process, but I realized I don't need to. The reason is that counter-claiming a mason claim as scum is beyond idiotic. And anybody not seeing that I am almost certainly town through these actions is simply tunneling, or scum trying to discredit me. To answer kush's question: there is no way for scum to know the claim is fake, other than the same way I did: the claim felt wrong. However, as scum you have EXTRA information: you know the claimer is town. Anybody who has not played scum (apparently quite a few of you) do not know how much power that gives you: you never have to doubt or second-guess your cases: you know what is true about them already. If you want an example, look at Mattchew's play in Holy Roman Maffia. He bussed all his teammates, because he couldn't see how anybody could overlook some of their "obvious" scumslips. However, it also limits you: you do NOT question a townie claiming mason. Simply doesn't happen. At most a scum would've ticked it as "possible fake claim, maybe SK?" There is absolutely NO reason for scum to counterclaim. None. Anybody trying to wifom this around is simply lacking in knowledge on how scum plays. Yes, you could wifom anything and say "but if people think scum has no reason to counterclaim masons then they DO have a reason to counterclaim masons"... except that in most cases this will result in the scum getting lynched. I KNEW I'd have an uphill battle to not get lynched if Muso's claim was true. It was why I set up the whole encrypted thing beforehand. The flavour theory is retarded. It's all I can say in my defense against that. It is fucking stupid to try to use flavour in Bugs' games, who meticulously sets up the game so flavour CANNOT be used and good old-fashioned analysis must prevail. Keep your mechanic-based analysis to themed games. | ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17984 Posts
1. Thrawn On November 02 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote: Acro, did you breadcrumb your mason role in your opening post? In that very opening post, you clearly state that you think masons should breadcrumb. This is someone who is really trying to figure out what the hell is going on. This post here is proof that he is attentively reading the thread and making crosslinks back to what people said earlier. Can scum do this? Sure. But it's more likely to be town. I see no reason to suspect thrawn at this point. 2. Mattchew I unfortunately have no real read on Mattchew yet. He is phoning in this game and tunneling on Release, which is something I am not very comfortable with. In general, Mattchew either steps up his game, or gets killed by scum before he can, if he's town. Otherwise we lynch him later. Mattchew lategame is generally easy to read. His reaction to the claim and counterclaim made me lean town, but it's not enough to be conclusive in any way. Specially as Mattchew is a pretty good scum player when he isn't obsessively bussing his teammates. 3. Promethelax Said most of what I have to say about this. Plenty of time D2 to actually analyze his play by his own merit. You refer to your previous games as scum. I don't remember reading any of them. Can you please link? Or at least say what games they were? It'd be good to read how well you actually play scum. 4. DarthPunk Has 0 impact on the game. Could be newbie town or flying-under-the-radar scum. 5. Acrofales 6. Hopeless1der Not a strong townread, but a town read all the same. I found his early game very townie and his behaviour regarding Release was townie. I also liked his response to the mason counterclaim. I know that Muso thought he was scum because he wanted to continue pushing him, but I can understand people wanting to kill him for his dodgy play. 7. mkfuba Not many posts. I liked his early game posting, but particularly around the deadline I get the feeling that the vote switching could very much be a scum trying to look like an indecisive townie, taking advantage of the fact that a townie was going to get lynched regardless of what he did. Of course, he could also be an actual indecisive townie and there's too little info other than that to make a decision either way. 8. risk.nuke This post made alarmbells go off: On November 01 2012 23:44 risk.nuke wrote: He's one of the better lynch candidates in the thread right now. Additionally there is a lot of boiling in the release is mafia cauldron. I want to find out is all talk and who's not. He then behaved townie when I revealed my lie. However, he is really underperforming. He is not sharing reads, pressuring people or doing anything that could be considered townie. He is basically a lurker, which is rather bad for one of the more experienced players in this game. 9. drazak Not much more to say here than I did at the end of D1. He looks like an inexperienced townie. 10. kushm4sta I will just copypaste the earlier case by thrawn: On November 02 2012 21:51 thrawn2112 wrote: fos kush muso/acro His first statement about the double mason claim was this: Then a page or so goes by with people jumping on the vote muso bandwagon, and then here's kush's next post: So he thinks that both claims are legit.... then after people start voting muso he decides to vote muso because of.... what change of opinion? None that I can see, just a disclaimer about waiting for additional claims. Muso/Acro if you guys are both town and believe each other to be town, and you're skeptical of prplhz for beliveing both claims, what do you think about kush's actions? After Acro reveals the encryption.... kush decides to vote Acro? Based on what? He didn't say. He gave no reason for unvoting the first fake claim and votes the next fake claim based on...... nothing. shutting down discussion That is the dumbest logic ever. Kush says that anyone who talks about muso is derailing discussion? wtf. I'd say that kush was the one actually trying to derail discussion. blue hunting he makes several references to flavor names, and he even specifically asks for vt's to step forward and weigh in on if they think "jessica rabbit" or "kid watching tv" fit with the names other vt's were given. It's not the same asking "hey who is blue" but indirectly it would have the same outcome. I would also like to add that On November 03 2012 05:57 kushm4sta wrote: Ah shit that is a flow claim. The role names are valuable as fuck..don't see why people don't realize that. Carrot sounds good to me. ##unvote this is just drazak being drazak (Sry about double zs before) is a terrible reason to change your mind. It feels like a scum realizing that this townie is not gonna get lynched, so coming up with a "legit" reason to change votes and secure the kill on someone we now know for sure is a townie: Muso. Out of all the votes on Muso, this is the only one that appears really fishy to me. Especially as he felt strongly enough about Drazak to even introduce him as an alternative lynch candidate at the end of the day. 11. Release The early pressure on him and his response made me lean marginally town and that opinion hasn't changed. This post: On November 01 2012 11:20 Release wrote: Do not use this post later to claim that i am shifting attention off myself. I acknowledge that I am under suspicion. So in the flurry of comment regarding the claiming, we seem to have dismissed the possibility of enacting a Lynch-all-liars policy. The main con i see if we do enact it is that we can't pull use fishing for reactions as freely. The main pro, however, is that people can't claim to be fishing for reactions. Another consequence is that more information is in the thread. Both town and mafia know more about true intentions and can react accordingly. Personally, i am against such a policy because people can very easily say "i changed my mind" and blame/vindication will tend to be imposed base on a town/scum flip. He knows it is extremely dumb to do, because it IS shifting attention off himself. He does this regardless, to push more discussion on D1. It just doesn't feel like a scum move to play like this. His reaction to Muso's claim was weird, but not scummy. I also like that he is participating enough to read Prome's filter and find his own reason to add to the case against him, rather than just going along with one of the bandwagons forming. It does not feel like something scum just trumped up to justify the vote. 12. Zealos The simple fact that he doesn't instantly feel like scum should make me want to colour his name green. However, he does not contribute enough to make me feel like he's actually town. I am actually not very familiar with Zealos' scumplay at all, and he may just be flying under the radar. Needs to step it up and contribute more actively to the game. 13 Dead. So yeah, I feel like I have a pretty good lead on Promethelax and you can call it tunneling all you like, but I am going to keep harping on him until he convinces me he's town, or one of us dies. His scumbuddy is still up in the air. I feel like kush could very well be scum too. His focus on irrelevant details and the dodgy voteswitch really make me lean scum. Other than that, anybody who is black in that list could be scum or an SK too. I am disappointed in risk and Mattchew's lack of activity and was expecting more from Hopeless1der too. | ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17984 Posts
On November 04 2012 00:56 risk.nuke wrote: I'm heading to a Halloween party in a while. If anyone want to talk with me before daypost it's now. I somehow doubt mafia will shoot you, but you never know. How about you give out some reads. You haven't given out any in like... 40 hours. You were critical of prplhz before the crazyness happened, but never switched off Muso. You haven't given out reads on anybody else since. How about you start. | ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17984 Posts
And also ##vote Promethelax Good night. | ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17984 Posts
| ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17984 Posts
Good night. | ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17984 Posts
On November 04 2012 20:48 DarthPunk wrote: Seriously. Can we stop with the role name bullshit. My god. Both of you voting prom for not claiming seriously? You should probably bother to read the thread if you think that that is the reason I am voting for Prom. | ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17984 Posts
On November 04 2012 21:07 Promethelax wrote: I was thinking about this. Zealos was pretty sure about me being scum and Acro being town. He may have tried to Save Acro or RB me. I'm not sure if Matt would use his 1-shot n1 so there is probably at least another Role Blocker still in the game ( I assume scum has one). I was wondering, neither Matt nor Zealos felt all that blue to me and I assume Mafia felt the same way. Which of their reads are most convincing to you? Matt for being a veteran and quite a few people having a green read on him.Zealos I am unsure about. Maybe someone got a whiff of blue on him. Your and risk's jailer theory makes sense. Zealos could have jailed me given his posting this game. He could also have jailed you, in the hope of preventing a mafia hit. Matt doesn't seem like he would rb either one of us, so that was probably scum whiffing blue, probably because of kush's inane mechanics posts. | ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17984 Posts
2 or 3, see http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9++ We have any of the situations with 3 or less Ts: 1-shot rb means at least two Bs and I presume mdics became jailers in Bugs' setup. Two NKs adds either an SK or a vig, so that is the scenarios with 3 or less Ts. That also means: stop fucking claiming VT. | ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17984 Posts
On November 04 2012 21:50 DarthPunk wrote: Oh that's right. You are still tunnelling the same read you had during the first part of day one. That is even more scummy than rampant setup speculation at all costs. Glad to see you're here. How about some reads of your own in stead of pages of useless filler posts? | ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17984 Posts
On November 04 2012 22:01 mkfuba07 wrote: Hi all. I'm terrible at hopping back into the thread. Is there anything in particular that you'd like me to comment on? If not I'll probably end up solo-analyzing filters and talking myself in circles, which doesn't help anyone XD Top 3 scumreads please. | ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17984 Posts
On November 04 2012 22:25 Promethelax wrote: His lynch felt the same way there was a role based reason so vote him (his claim) and everyone was on board. It was too easy, there was no counter wagon even though the guy counter claiming him was also fake claiming. That felt pretty fishy to me and worth trying to create an actual dichotomy in the voting. Since you seem to think that I am as dumb as a couple of rocks trying to fuck could you maybe give me some hints as to why Matt was 'obviously' townie. It wasn't obvious to me (though I think I'm 100% for reading Matt wrong in games with him, in MTG I thought he was town and in LC I was calling him out as scum; same thing here). Acro: why do you ignore everything directed from me to you? If you are town you lose out on making one of your scum reads have to be more involved in the thread. Just ignoring me gives me a good reason to get mad and stop trying to play and start getting emotional. If you are town there is nothing to lose from answering my questions instead of ignoring them. If I am town or if I am mafia a town you would do better for talking to me. I'm not sure what questions you mean. I have no extra info about the number of scum. Other than that, all your questions have already been answered in the various posts I made about you. I am fully willing to recognize that currently my judgement is rather clouded with regards to you: I think you're scum and am able to come up with a good scum reason for everything you have said an done. I looked over your meta, but it's pretty inconclusive. You're rather outspoken regardless of alignment. That's the reason I am not engaging you: it'll shit up the thread (see any game in which Bugs and VE play together) and I prefer other townies chip in with their opinions of you. I feel my case is strong. If you want my other scumreads? Kush is still up there, although Matt made a good point. DarthPunk is slowly on the rise. That's about all that has registered as "changed" since my list during the night. The roleblocks are inconclusive: they can only give positive confirmation that someone is scum if the scum kill doesn't happen (and then there's still the possibility of the scum actually forgetting to kill, or a medic protect stopping the kill). In the case of the scumkill happening, it could still be performed by the other member(s) of the team. There's no way of knowing who is the designated killer. Also, I think it is extremely unlikely Zealos was shot by a vig, so I am tentatively going with the SK theory. That means there are at least 3 bad guys, and possibly 4. We are currently 10 players, so we're possibly at mylo already. | ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17984 Posts
| ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17984 Posts
Yes, that means I believe Thrawn. I still think it very likely we have an SK, so here are the options: TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof) T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof) That means we are at mylo. | ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17984 Posts
| ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17984 Posts
Release vs. Kushm4sta: at the time I thought it was Kush being dumb and Release being dumber. However, it WAS a very easy mistake for scum to jump on and a newbie scum (and this would be Release's first scum game) could definitely be expected to try to jump on that. While in my nightpost I said that his "distraction" post read as too ballsy a move for scum, we must not forget that it actually worked. The topic shifted away from Release's aggression towards Kush and onto more easily handled subjects. Partially helped by Muso's claim. Release's behaviour in that claim was very very weird. The first thing he reacted with was On November 01 2012 13:07 Release wrote: Sounds like bait from Muso. Wants me to push the agenda with which i have already parted. Muso... This is strange play, regardless of alignment, and I am unsure what to make of it. One way this makes sense is if he was WAITING for a trap to be laid, and he caught it out. Town doesn't wait for traps. Scum does. However, in the whole ordeal, this is what really caught my eye: On November 02 2012 09:56 Release wrote: I've caught up with the reading and afai can tell, Muso's reason for why he did such things is based on WIFOM( yes many things in mafia are wifom, but this has little to help up). From what i see the intent of this post was to spread confusion and maybe set up a 1 for 1 trade, which could have been accomplished with accrofale's claim. more to come later. This slipped by me the first time. A 1 for 1 trade is a TERRIBLE deal for scum. Both scum and town players know that. However, if you KNOW Muso and Acro are both town, then you suddenly have to come up with a reason to lynch Muso. This reason is extremely forced. Most everybody else was just really confused about why Muso would claim mason as scum... which is the correct reaction. Kush actually called him out on this post at the time and his response was a classic OMGUS with some more idiotic logic where he tries to make a 1-1 trade make sense with complete lunacy: On November 02 2012 11:26 Release wrote: Are you trying to start a fight with me? I said I caught up so i don't get "did you even read?"s in response to my post. You wanted me to only read Muso's last post and skip everything else? Spread confusion = mafia trait Mafia might want to do a 1 for 1 trade because as of now, we see that Muso is terrible, and maybe he had been terrible in the mafia QT. Of course this is Hypothetical and you'd have to ask the mafia themselves to get the right answer. Then the vote switching: he wants to vote for Promethelax, but if we can get a majority on Drazak, he will go along with the deal. Ends up voting Muso because: On November 03 2012 06:12 Release wrote: Vote count? If at 14:59 we have 6 votes on Muso, I will switch. I am a firm believer that nolynch day1 sucks balls for town. In other words: doesn't give a shit about where his vote ends up as long as it secures a lynch (on a townie like Muso, who despite what Promethelax says was always going to be lynched, because it was way too late for a voteswitch anywhere else with half the town afk at the deadline). But the REAL nail in the coffin is: On November 03 2012 10:50 Release wrote: You expected me to deliberately not vote what appeared to be very scummy behavior? Hell, i could have chosen accro too if i wanted to lynch-all-liars. I chose Muso for the scummy manner in which he lied. Wait... WHAT? You voted for Muso to ensure the lynch would happen. You ACTUALLY preferred both Promethelax and Drazak (or at least said you did)... however NOW his behaviour was suddenly very scummy. Add to that, that he has put 0 effort into this game except when under fire and we have ourselves a scum. I am not sure what this says about Promethelax. Still thinking things over. However, Release has surpassed Promethelax as my prime scum read. ##unvote ##vote Release PS. Yes, I said I was reading DarthPunk: that was completely inconclusive and I don't know what to make of him. | ||
| ||
