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Newbie Mini Mafia XXIX - Page 11

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debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
October 31 2012 01:14 GMT
#1522
@Alsn

How do you go from this?

On October 31 2012 08:59 Alsn wrote:
All right, I wanted to make this post in the case that I die. These are the reads that I haven't really made public as of yet for varying reasons.

Debears is very probably town, if he isn't then I don't know what to say.
Rad is definitely town, or at the very least you should treat him as such. If he's SK the game is over for town but if he's vigi it's definitely winnable.
Dandel is probably town, but I still can't discount the possibility that he's scum role blocker. His claim doesn't rule it out(like Rad's does) but his actions during D2/N2 at least suggests to me that he's either town or a damned good actor when under pressure(the lynch chaos seemed genuinely town to me).

Nackh I consider to be really scummy. His cases seem "fake" somehow, they don't suggest to me like he's really trying to really find scum. I keep getting the feeling that he doesn't actually care about winning. However, if I suppose that he's scum, it would mean that he just believes trolling the fuck out of the thread will make us feel scared about voting him(because we might think he's too big of a risk to lynch).
Cheese... I just don't know, he's my top scum read among "the actives" based on his actions, but my problem is that I think Nackh is really scummy, so Cheese being accused by him means that either he's bussing him or Cheese is innocent. I can at least see a world where Cheese could be innocent.

I find Nackh's general behaviour to be anti-town however. So suppose he really has played those 10 games of mafia he claims to have played. Then he probably knows that bussing is way more effective for gaining townie points if you're the cause of a scum lynch(first one to accuse) as opposed to waiting until there's a wagon already formed.

Among these players and with how things stand right now, I'd suggest lynching Nackh. He's simply not playing very pro-town and that's the biggest scum tell I have right now. Also, unless that's also just him completely trolling, for some reason he seems set on the idea that both Roco and Inig are town with no chance of them being scum. I have no idea why he would think that unless he already knew that they were town.

That leaves Roco and Inig. Sigh, I really wish we hadn't thought Roco was gonna get modkilled. Getting rid of him over Djod or even da0ud would've been a much better position. That being said, I'd hold off on lynching Inig for at the very least tomorrow. I find the possibility of him being town not entirely unlikely and in the case that he is, there's still hope for him. I think you have to assume that Roco is scum. Because even if he isn't I just don't see how you could get him to vote with you when he won't even talk.

In conclusion, Lynch Roco and hope to god that he's scum, then probably Nackh, and then hopefully you have the last scum figured out and Rad doesn't actually turn out to be SK. If you don't want to hope that Roco is scum, or if in fact he actually shows up and contributes in a meaningful way, then I'd go with Nackh first.


so quickly to this?

On October 31 2012 09:05 Alsn wrote:
Ok, screw my last minute post, Dandel is probably scum, post coming up.


and this

On October 31 2012 09:25 Alsn wrote:
First, I think we can all agree that before this night flip, we knew two things. That Rad was either SK or Vigi and also that Dandel was either scum or town roleblocker.

We know that scum couldn't know for sure if Rad was vigi or SK. However, if they suspected that he was SK they must have counted on him having a vest making him immune to one kill.

Interestingly however, Dandel being scum or not would likely affect their decision greatly. Since if Dandel was town, they must have suspected that Rad was SK and thus night immune(since 4 blues seems like quite a stretch). On the other hand, if Dandel is scum, scum could definitely conclude that the possibility of Rad being vigi is much more likely(with only 2 blues it seems like the game would be very stacked against town if there's also a serial killer).

Additionally, there's the fact that claiming town roleblocker is actually really easy to do if you are scum roleblocker. By the time Dandel claimed, he would have known from his scum buddies that none of them were role blocked. Neither had anyone else claimed roleblock so he knew the possibility of a town roleblocker was very unlikely(since town would definitely claim if they got roleblocked). Him bread crumbing that he would roleblock kush is a null tell at best.

So, in conclusion, why I think Dandel is scum:
  • Unlikelihood of there being 4 blues, as well as the very real possibility that there is a scum roleblocker.
  • The fact that scum probably wouldn't risk shooting an SK, something they must have suspected if Dandel was town.
  • The likelihood of there actually being a scum roleblocker.
  • Wanting to set up kush for the D2 lynch.
  • OMGUS case against Inig D1.



This is very alarming. Within 25 minutes, you go from Dandel as town to having a thought out post with the opposite conclusion This shows that your sudden flip on Dandel was premeditated. That means you knew what was going to happen and were preparing for it.

Some more thoughts coming up after this.
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
October 31 2012 01:17 GMT
#1524
@Inig

Due to the post about rb mechanis that Dandel stated, and the fact that I believe his claim due to no counterclaim and his town meta and such, I believe there is a decent chance that you are town. Also, I am adding in the fact that Djo and Kush both had newbie town reads on you, as shown to me by Rad earlier.

I would like your thoughts later when you can post them on the situation
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
October 31 2012 01:19 GMT
#1526
On October 31 2012 10:18 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
@Debears

Maybe the Rad flip really did catch him off guard? I agree that his opinion switching is a tad odd, but maybe the flip just hit the switch for him and suddenly everything was clear?


Ockham's razor- less assumptions is true. Did you see the timestamps? It takes more than 25 minutes to gather thoughts like that unless they were premeditated
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
October 31 2012 01:20 GMT
#1527
ebwop

most like true on the ockham's razor part
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
October 31 2012 01:20 GMT
#1528
likely....mega fail
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
October 31 2012 01:25 GMT
#1529
it appears I am in a deadzone no1 here for real?
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
October 31 2012 01:31 GMT
#1532
That is speculation though....

It could've been a blue snipe. Can't say for sure though.

What do you think of Dandel's claim currently?
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
October 31 2012 01:42 GMT
#1534
Hmmm it appears Alsn is off to bed.....well, no one to really question at this point. I'll have some questions for you later Cheese.

This is mylo right?

@Nackht and Roco

Could use some input today, considering the situation.
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
October 31 2012 01:43 GMT
#1535
I'm counting 7 left. Unless there are 2 scum left, we are at mylo....We should treat today as mylo though
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
October 31 2012 01:47 GMT
#1537
Eh. not sure. Hopefully tonight, but I'm tired as shit (sickness and practices fml). And I have a test to study for with homework. Eh....Tomorrow then.

I'm gonna peace out for a while and get my studying in since no1's here besides you
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
October 31 2012 05:57 GMT
#1539
Will be back in probably 12 hours. Gotta long ass case on CC coming up. Just have to write it after classes. Goodnight boyz in da hood
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
October 31 2012 21:43 GMT
#1588
@Alsn

I still don't understand how you got from this

On October 31 2012 07:26 Alsn wrote:
Inig, afaik no one accused you of sheeping Dandel. Several people disliked the Dandel lynch because you were voting for him and had you pegged as scum, having little town credibility means things like this happen. What you're supposed to do is to not care that people don't trust you, and soldier through. Some of the beginner guides even say this, that your first goal as town is to establish your innocence. Which is easier said than done unfortunately.

I also don't think you being lynched is anywhere near set in stone. I'm sorry to group you with Roco, but for pretty much all of the latter half of D2 you were nowhere to be seen. Also, you getting upset when you're playing a game where(assuming you truly are town) the main objective for 3 out of 13 participants to make everyone else believe you as little as humanly possible is a little naïve. Of course scum will be doing their absolute utmost to discredit townies and make their theories look bad, because indirectly that's their goal.

To your last point, why do people insist that there is a serial killer? Or for that matter, that the mafia necessarily want to gamble on leaving him alive? We are arguing with Nackh about it because he is misleading people by talking about shit that has no bearing on what we must do, intentional or not. Suggesting that there are 2 scum is ridiculous. Saying that the game is over if there are 3 scum is equally ridiculous. Giving up is ridiculous. Do you really feel attacked? In my last game I was VT as well and I had to suffer being attacked by everyone at a point where there was a single scum and 9 town actually remaining, but everyone thought there were 2 scum. I was endlessly attacked yet that's what happens in this game. People are wrongly accused, people are misled. It's kind of the entire point.



To this

On October 31 2012 09:25 Alsn wrote:
First, I think we can all agree that before this night flip, we knew two things. That Rad was either SK or Vigi and also that Dandel was either scum or town roleblocker.

We know that scum couldn't know for sure if Rad was vigi or SK. However, if they suspected that he was SK they must have counted on him having a vest making him immune to one kill.

Interestingly however, Dandel being scum or not would likely affect their decision greatly. Since if Dandel was town, they must have suspected that Rad was SK and thus night immune(since 4 blues seems like quite a stretch). On the other hand, if Dandel is scum, scum could definitely conclude that the possibility of Rad being vigi is much more likely(with only 2 blues it seems like the game would be very stacked against town if there's also a serial killer).

Additionally, there's the fact that claiming town roleblocker is actually really easy to do if you are scum roleblocker. By the time Dandel claimed, he would have known from his scum buddies that none of them were role blocked. Neither had anyone else claimed roleblock so he knew the possibility of a town roleblocker was very unlikely(since town would definitely claim if they got roleblocked). Him bread crumbing that he would roleblock kush is a null tell at best.

So, in conclusion, why I think Dandel is scum:
  • Unlikelihood of there being 4 blues, as well as the very real possibility that there is a scum roleblocker.
  • The fact that scum probably wouldn't risk shooting an SK, something they must have suspected if Dandel was town.
  • The likelihood of there actually being a scum roleblocker.
  • Wanting to set up kush for the D2 lynch.
  • OMGUS case against Inig D1.


and this

On October 31 2012 22:40 Alsn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 31 2012 10:14 debears wrote:
@Alsn

How do you go from this?

On October 31 2012 08:59 Alsn wrote:
All right, I wanted to make this post in the case that I die. These are the reads that I haven't really made public as of yet for varying reasons.

Debears is very probably town, if he isn't then I don't know what to say.
Rad is definitely town, or at the very least you should treat him as such. If he's SK the game is over for town but if he's vigi it's definitely winnable.
Dandel is probably town, but I still can't discount the possibility that he's scum role blocker. His claim doesn't rule it out(like Rad's does) but his actions during D2/N2 at least suggests to me that he's either town or a damned good actor when under pressure(the lynch chaos seemed genuinely town to me).

Nackh I consider to be really scummy. His cases seem "fake" somehow, they don't suggest to me like he's really trying to really find scum. I keep getting the feeling that he doesn't actually care about winning. However, if I suppose that he's scum, it would mean that he just believes trolling the fuck out of the thread will make us feel scared about voting him(because we might think he's too big of a risk to lynch).
Cheese... I just don't know, he's my top scum read among "the actives" based on his actions, but my problem is that I think Nackh is really scummy, so Cheese being accused by him means that either he's bussing him or Cheese is innocent. I can at least see a world where Cheese could be innocent.

I find Nackh's general behaviour to be anti-town however. So suppose he really has played those 10 games of mafia he claims to have played. Then he probably knows that bussing is way more effective for gaining townie points if you're the cause of a scum lynch(first one to accuse) as opposed to waiting until there's a wagon already formed.

Among these players and with how things stand right now, I'd suggest lynching Nackh. He's simply not playing very pro-town and that's the biggest scum tell I have right now. Also, unless that's also just him completely trolling, for some reason he seems set on the idea that both Roco and Inig are town with no chance of them being scum. I have no idea why he would think that unless he already knew that they were town.

That leaves Roco and Inig. Sigh, I really wish we hadn't thought Roco was gonna get modkilled. Getting rid of him over Djod or even da0ud would've been a much better position. That being said, I'd hold off on lynching Inig for at the very least tomorrow. I find the possibility of him being town not entirely unlikely and in the case that he is, there's still hope for him. I think you have to assume that Roco is scum. Because even if he isn't I just don't see how you could get him to vote with you when he won't even talk.

In conclusion, Lynch Roco and hope to god that he's scum, then probably Nackh, and then hopefully you have the last scum figured out and Rad doesn't actually turn out to be SK. If you don't want to hope that Roco is scum, or if in fact he actually shows up and contributes in a meaningful way, then I'd go with Nackh first.


so quickly to this?

On October 31 2012 09:05 Alsn wrote:
Ok, screw my last minute post, Dandel is probably scum, post coming up.


and this

On October 31 2012 09:25 Alsn wrote:
First, I think we can all agree that before this night flip, we knew two things. That Rad was either SK or Vigi and also that Dandel was either scum or town roleblocker.

We know that scum couldn't know for sure if Rad was vigi or SK. However, if they suspected that he was SK they must have counted on him having a vest making him immune to one kill.

Interestingly however, Dandel being scum or not would likely affect their decision greatly. Since if Dandel was town, they must have suspected that Rad was SK and thus night immune(since 4 blues seems like quite a stretch). On the other hand, if Dandel is scum, scum could definitely conclude that the possibility of Rad being vigi is much more likely(with only 2 blues it seems like the game would be very stacked against town if there's also a serial killer).

Additionally, there's the fact that claiming town roleblocker is actually really easy to do if you are scum roleblocker. By the time Dandel claimed, he would have known from his scum buddies that none of them were role blocked. Neither had anyone else claimed roleblock so he knew the possibility of a town roleblocker was very unlikely(since town would definitely claim if they got roleblocked). Him bread crumbing that he would roleblock kush is a null tell at best.

So, in conclusion, why I think Dandel is scum:
  • Unlikelihood of there being 4 blues, as well as the very real possibility that there is a scum roleblocker.
  • The fact that scum probably wouldn't risk shooting an SK, something they must have suspected if Dandel was town.
  • The likelihood of there actually being a scum roleblocker.
  • Wanting to set up kush for the D2 lynch.
  • OMGUS case against Inig D1.



This is very alarming. Within 25 minutes, you go from Dandel as town to having a thought out post with the opposite conclusion This shows that your sudden flip on Dandel was premeditated. That means you knew what was going to happen and were preparing for it.

Some more thoughts coming up after this.
I'm back.
My pre-day post was in the case that I died, my thoughts at the time were that if scum had really killed me for some reason, Dandel was probably town and they wanted to leave his ambiguous claim an open question for town. I had gotten so convinced from making that pre-day post that scum would not kill Rad that the fact that they did shocked me greatly.

As to your point that I couldn't think that argument up from nothing in 25 minutes, you're absolutely right. I don't know how that makes me scummy though as if I had shared every theory I have, this thread would be cluttered as fuck. I had been thinking about the possibility of Rad dying and what it meant for my opinion of Dandel for several hours before hand. So yes, the post was somewhat premeditated, except for the fact that near the end I concluded that I'd save it for the next night if the game lasted that long. Reasons being that I didn't want to let scum know my line of thinking unless it actually happened(if it never happened it would be good for me that they didn't know I suspected that Dandel was close to confirmed town).

So there, I see that you guys have managed to produce pretty much nothing during the 13 hours that I've been away. I'm anxiously awaiting something some time soon. Dandel, I can accept that it's your mothers birthday, but I really expect you to either do your absolute utmost tomorrow to find some lynchable scum or I can't see how I can't lynch you. Or at the very least, if you're really town, I hope someone can actually make an argument that makes sense to me why we should lynch someone else.


In the first post, you said that scum wouldn't gamble on keeping the sk alive.

Then, in the second you say that scum wouldn't shoot the sk at night.

Then, you say scum would shoot you to keep the Dandel claim in doubt. Wouldn't shooting Rad do the same thing, as shown by your and Nackht's suspicions of Dandel's claim today?
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
October 31 2012 22:56 GMT
#1597
On November 01 2012 07:00 Alsn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 01 2012 06:43 debears wrote:
In the first post, you said that scum wouldn't gamble on keeping the sk alive.

Then, in the second you say that scum wouldn't shoot the sk at night.

Then, you say scum would shoot you to keep the Dandel claim in doubt. Wouldn't shooting Rad do the same thing, as shown by your and Nackht's suspicions of Dandel's claim today?
Shooting Rad certainly would do that as you so nicely pointed out. I just didn't think they would.

The first post you quote is definitely inconsistent however and I apologize. It was meant to make a potential town Inig actually want to participate(it felt to me like he was convinced the game was unwinnable due to what nackh had been saying) because if he was town and had completely given up, the game would definitely be over.


I still don't understand why scum wouldn't shoot a guy who was either vig or SK.

Rad's claimed was not doubted by any of us last time I checked, unless he would be SK, which an extra nk would point out to us.

So, in other words, Rad was a threat to mafia as
1) A confirmed town
or if not
2) A SK who's priority would be killing mafia
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
October 31 2012 22:56 GMT
#1598
finally tl working again :/
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
October 31 2012 23:55 GMT
#1607
@Alsn

Yeah Alsn honestly haven't had the time I thought I would today in terms of writing it. I have close to an hour of so to write it. I'll probably just post a summary of what I found since I didn't find any thing that was solely scum motivated. What I mainly saw is that most of the accusations against him aren't strong by any means.

Will post the rest later.

Also, Alsn I have found your start to today alarming. Since you are actually active, it's more important to get answers right away instead of going after afkers.

@everyone


I'm going to agree with Alsn, that, most likely, those who have been lurking the whole game, and continue to, are looking scummy as time goes on with no comment.

In other words, Roco and Inig are the ones I'm mainly talking about.

@Cheese

Why were you gone day 1 before the lynch? Why have you been gone today?

As I recall, you said you would be back on.
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
November 01 2012 00:35 GMT
#1612
On November 01 2012 09:17 Alsn wrote:
Still here for a teensy bit longer. Am I right in interpreting your post as accusing me of "going after afkers", yet agreeing with me that Roco is a logical lynch candidate? That seems a bit odd to me.

I'm assuming your line about my start being "alarming" is with regards to my aggressive stance on Dandel, but I don't understand how the rest of that line fits into that. Get which answers right away?

I think my reasons for suspecting Dandel at the time should be pretty clear, I didn't think there were any good reasons for why my argument wouldn't mean there was a pretty high chance of Dandel actually being scum.


I wasn't getting on you about accusing lurkers. I was saying I didn't make the cheese post yet since I wanted to get some answers from you first. That was a misplaced line lol.

I'll reread your arguments again (for like the 5th time). There's so much speculation and you seem to keep going around in circles. I feel like you are ignoring looking at his whole game and actual actions, his meta, and such for speculation to accuse him.
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
November 01 2012 00:35 GMT
#1613
ebwop

and using specuation in place of it to accuse him
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
November 01 2012 00:40 GMT
#1614
A summary of cheese's actions

While looking through cheese's filter a couple of times last night, I was looking for 1) the points that others pointed out about his neutralness and 2) Other things that would indicate scum (behavior and such)
After going over it, I have concluded that I don't find anything damning and the original points addressed at Cheese were weak.

The original points as I recall:
1)Neutrality
2)Sheeping Dau0d/Djo cases
3)Generally Blending In - look at unspoilered text below in the bold

I believe these arguments fail to look at the context of what happened around what Cheese did, especially with these 3 points. Bold numbers 1 and 2 in spoiler correspond to the points

+ Show Spoiler +
1)Neutrality was most definitely true for d1 for cheese. He had a tendency of stating the obvious in terms of policy early on. As time progressed, his suspicions moved to 1)Djo and 2) Inig. He found his suspicions on Inig alleviated shortly.

However, he did stay focused on Djo. He pursued unanswer questions from Djo (reading the thread). He put input on my case on specific parts, quoting which he agreed and disagreed with (as I recall very few people in this game have done so) and saying why. He attempted to make an ill-founded smiley meta case on Djo, but rescinded after being pointed out why he was wrong, but stood by the rest of his concerns of Djo.

He had further suspicions on Djo due to Djo's refusal to change his views on policy and Djo's display of confusion.

Before the lynch, he went MIA for a while and came back to the thread with a little time before lynch, switching his vote off Djo and onto Dau0d (explained his reasoning for voting Dau0d over Inig). His reasons were that he did not want to waste a vote on someone not getting lynched. Others had asked him to move his vote off Djo.

So, for d1, nothing special, nothing that sticks out. Neutral. However, also remember that Cheese's top scumread was Djo. Djo's lynch never gained momemtun. Everyone wanted to take a wait a see approach. That could explain the rest of his d1 (except the afk).

N2 - night 2 was a little bit of a different story. He became more active with the fill in of Kush. One thing I saw that he did was give kush a meta read on me. He had not been asked in any way to do so. Kush was rampaging about my meta, yet the only one to do a meta read was Cheese. This, in my eyes, is a town tell. He went beyond this game with his investigation. Also, he found kush's scumslip about nk's from kush's previous games before I even did, when I actually played that game.

Something I noticed by Djo is that he defended kush against bad cases (rad's pre-game talk case).

Also, during this time, Djo was attacking Cheese for Cheese's voteswitch at the end of day 1 off of Djo. The problem with that accusation, though, was that Djo himself asked Cheese to not waste the vote. Djo continued to argue this point for a while.

Djo's accusations over a bad point led Cheese to believe Djo was scum during N2. He makes a formal case against Djo with his own points.

D2 - 2) From d1 on, Djo never made himself seem town by his comments. Pretty much everyone was saying "Djo is scum". In n1, Djo pushed Cheese's suspicions with Djo's constant attack over an invalid point. Cheese keeps his vote on Djo, stating the "95% scum, 5% SK" argument, which, based off of Djo's actions in the night, and how Cheese's suspicion seemed to keep building, make sense. Cheese was also the second to vote Djo. Also, with the case he made, I wouldn't case his suspicion of Djo "sheeping" after the interactions between the two n1.

Meanwhile, after Dandel flamed on, Cheese stated that he was willing to vote Dandel is Dandel refused to defend himself and keep flaming.

Around this point, he said the hurricane was moving in.

After a while, he posted a bit on Inig's "blending in". Also, he noticed how I somehow managed to quote his post in the middle of my Djo case while addressing the other points in the case. The quote from CC that I acccidentally put in the Djo case was in a spoiler, meaning that Djo was pretty likely reading my long case. Him reading the thread was a common theme that showed up in his filter.

At the end of day2, he became more suspicious after Roco's and Inig's votes on Dandel without reasoning. He makes a final statment about Djo being scum, and disappears (saying it was the hurricane).

Alright, that's the whole context of his posting.


My thoughts on why I don't see much scum evidence
1) He's actively reading the thread and discussing with others when he has been on
2) He has been in the middle of a hurricane the last couple of days (honestly out of any IRL excuse, this is a pretty damn reasonable one, especially considering TL has been down twice) He's basically been forced to post when he can
3) He hasn't gone out of his way defending his actions. Only addresses defending himself when accused. (no signs of a guilty conscience)
4) He has investigated meta of the players from previous games
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
November 01 2012 00:41 GMT
#1615
Ebwop

The most valid point on him is his neutrality d1 btw, in case not clear
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
November 01 2012 00:47 GMT
#1616
@Alsn

I went through a game of the UberNinja/Nackht mafiascum games. I looked at this game
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=23437&start=175

I find that he is likely UberNinja. His posting style (trolling, quoting and confusing) and timing (posting in clusters) ring true in the mafiascum game
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