EPT@Boson, yes. I'm leaning towards SS, but Remedy has been lurky and I've barely looked into his filter because my intuition had me leaning townie early. He's more or less null and him being one of the remaining two I consider possible scum overlooking that risk would be stupid.
Newbie Mini Mafia XXVIII - Page 8
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
@Boson, yes. I'm leaning towards SS, but Remedy has been lurky and I've barely looked into his filter because my intuition had me leaning townie early. He's more or less null and him being one of the remaining two I consider possible scum overlooking that risk would be stupid. | ||
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However, I don't feel like Shady's story adds up. We all know Shady's entrance to the thread, jumping the Alsn bandwagon, so I'm not going to get into that. In itself it's not necessarily scummy because he was new to the game, but it's the start. D3 it continues. He makes a short and weak case for voting on Debears, who seems to be the guy everyone's going to wagon: On October 03 2012 10:01 Shady Sands wrote: + Show Spoiler + Alright, since Lesrah wasn't posting through D2 then that means that if debears was the other scum there was no other scum trying to stop his lynch. Hence the lack of opposition to his lynch becomes less of a town-tell to me. This, coupled with the earlier case on him (which he hasn't adequately responded to, imo) makes me view him as scum. ## Vote debears I questioned him about this earlier without a response (read it): On October 04 2012 22:16 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: + Show Spoiler + Just went through the Shady part of the filter... not a lot of posts but the ones there are certainly aren't convincing. On October 02 2012 16:21 Shady Sands wrote: I'm still not sold on Debears yet. Every time people push him as a lynch and everyone just nods along and agrees (this is based on a cursory ready through 30+ pages of filter late at night, so pardon me if I'm totally wrong about this), I get a wierd feeling in the pit of my stomach. Why? Because scum is already down one, there is almost zero chance they'd accede easily to a second consecutive bus. So if everyone is nodding along on Debears, and scum isn't going to roll over and bus again, then, WIFOM as this reasoning is, it doesn't seem reasonable that Debears should be scum. How do you choose Debears over Alsn because everyone "nods along" to his case? Where did you get the impression anyone was oppose the Alsn wagon? On October 03 2012 10:01 Shady Sands wrote: Alright, since Lesrah wasn't posting through D2 then that means that if debears was the other scum there was no other scum trying to stop his lynch. Hence the lack of opposition to his lynch becomes less of a town-tell to me. This, coupled with the earlier case on him (which he hasn't adequately responded to, imo) makes me view him as scum. ## Vote debears I mean like... what? The lack of resistance for the Debears wagon was the only reason you didn't like it? And instead choose the Alsn wagon which had just as little resistance? Nothing else, other than that he hasn't "adequately responded" to his earlier case. Not even mentioning which part of the case you think makes Debears suspicious. Not only do your weak reasoning make you suspicious of Debears, it makes you certain he is scum? Instead of replying to my questions, he later pops into the thread with a FOS on Boson. Completely out of the blue and without explaining why he dropped his certain scum read that was Debears: On October 05 2012 14:19 Shady Sands wrote: + Show Spoiler + By the way, I'm reading through the thread. Right now, my top scumread, believe it or not, is Z-Boson. His interaction with Kush D1 was just... strange (it almost feels like half of the discussion there was occurring somewhere else, like in the Scum QT), his unvote of Debears and transfer to Alsn is also wierd, and finally his constant fingerpointing without any commitment D3 fits the profile of being the very last scum trying to stay alive and set up mislynch chains over the next few cycles. ##FoS Z-Boson So, after being accused for scummy sheeping he ignores the questions and decides to make an original case. Note how he later uses this case to argue that it's not something scum would do. This is BS, after people putting focus on others than Debears (mainly Omni and himself) and him taking heat for sheeping, it's what he had to do in order to try to stay off the radar. He simply couldn't sheep anymore. (The case in itself is decent but if you just look at the d2 voting and the posts around it, it becomes pretty clear Boson wasn't the one nudging the decision towards Alsn. And it would have to be one hell of an elaborate plot which in itself is unlikely) On n3 he remains suspicious of Boson and when Debears posts his "scum slip trap", Shady reacts like this: On October 06 2012 08:22 Shady Sands wrote: + Show Spoiler + On October 06 2012 08:10 debears wrote: Why would you say you were vote switching among townies when you think I'm certain scum or shady is? Definite scumslip ##vote z-boson Wait, I didn't see this coming in. Wow. Yeah, everyone who is still on the fence about ZB: READ THE ABOVE TEXT PLEASE So when Debears makes this argument, Shady buys it. I don't see how a townie would buy this silly argument from what he earlier considered clear scum and now seemingly is his #2 suspect + Show Spoiler + On October 06 2012 13:44 Shady Sands wrote: If Z-Boson flips town, then Debears is probably the last scum. On October 06 2012 09:06 Shady Sands wrote: + Show Spoiler + Think for a second here, Debears. I've been pushing for a Z-Boson lynch since before anyone even brought him up as a candidate. I've been trying to lynch him for an entire votecycle. Ergo, isn't it completely logical for me to support arguments from other townies that support a ZB lynch? No, it's really not. Nothing makes me more paranoid than when people nods along with an argument I make that I later realize is stupid. Particularly when it comes from someone you've been suspicious of all game. Also, Shady is referring to Debears as one of the "other townies". Has he really gone to be that confident Boson is scum? Despite the case's flaws having been pointed out? Despite the roleclaim? And Djo getting NKd is all that is needed for him to 100% clear Boson and make Debears his #1 suspect? It doesn't add up. On October 06 2012 09:18 Shady Sands wrote: + Show Spoiler + On October 06 2012 09:12 debears wrote: My argument was illogical. You jumped on it. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=353315¤tpage=38#745 Finding scumslips in a "if-i-was-scum" statement is exactly how Ange found the first scumteam member in XXII. That moment pretty much saved the town in that game. That's why I agreed with you. This is just completely wrong and probably just a way to try to brush off his mistake. If you look up the thread he's linking to, you can see that Ange brings down Zorkmid because he makes an "if-I-was-town" argument, which is obviously scummy because a townie would not have to put himself in an "if-I-was-town" hypothetical. What Boson said is nothing like that. And then there's this, replying to Djo after he's dead using silly arguments seemingly designed to wash himself clean: On October 07 2012 05:30 Shady Sands wrote: + Show Spoiler + On October 06 2012 22:29 Djodref wrote: And now here is my analysis of Shady's filter ! His actions pretty much speak for themselves  Please notice first how Corrosion's leaves the thread with a no-lynch vote. I think this move was advised by the mafia coach to let all options open for the replacement when he comes into the thread. So let's look at Shady's first real post. My comments are in red bold font in the spoiler. + Show Spoiler + On October 02 2012 16:21 Shady Sands wrote: So at this point I have a moderate scum read on Alsn and strong town read on Darthpunk. Picks up Alsn as a target while distancing himself from the lynch I'm still not sold on Debears yet. Every time people push him as a lynch and everyone just nods along and agrees (this is based on a cursory ready through 30+ pages of filter late at night, so pardon me if I'm totally wrong about this), I get a wierd feeling in the pit of my stomach. Why? Because scum is already down one, there is almost zero chance they'd accede easily to a second consecutive bus. So if everyone is nodding along on Debears, and scum isn't going to roll over and bus again, then, WIFOM as this reasoning is, it doesn't seem reasonable that Debears should be scum. Alsn, however, feels scummy to me. Why?
The points add nothing new. He is clearly sheeping right now (as a lot of us did). I'm quite sure he did pick Alsn over Debears because he was afraid of Alsn potential in the future of the game. All four points are not damning guilt in and of themselves. But combined, they point a pretty compelling picture of a scum Alsn. Right now he's my strongest read and as such ##Vote Alsn However, he's only a moderate scumread. Depending on what happens between now and when I check in the thread in about 16 or 17 hours, I might change my mind. Distancing himself and disappear And comes back just to vote on debears with this post First of all, he doesn't give any kind of reasonable explanations for his vote. He is just sheeping on our previous cases on him which he was not buying yet, as he stated on his previous post. Plus, I'm sure now that I've found a serious scumslip in this post. I've checked all filters carefully and the few mentions of a cop role that I saw were referring to the game where DarthPunk was cop. Before him, nobody has ever mentioned nor imagined the possibility of a cop. At this time, he is the only one with me who know that we are playing a cop setup because he is the Godfather ! Please also notice how he wants me to check Omni or Remedy rather than Debears. He knows that Debears is town and doesn't want the cop to defend him the following day. Unfortunately, things don't go according to his plan during D3. Except me, nobody wants to lynch Debears anymore. And the focus is starting to get very close to him again (Omni and SS were the candidates for the second edition for the battle for the noose which never happened). He decided to confuse everybody by doing this I fall into his evil trap and town goes scatter. We need two consecutive blue claims to avoid a mislynch, SDM brain has exploded, Z-Boson is super angry. Debears and me are running in circles. But now it is the end, the last scum is going to fall. So, Shady, how about you concede ? Obviously since you're dead I can't really respond to you. First, I assumed the existence of a cop because I thought the N1 kill was stopped by a medic or JK. In all the newbie games I played in the past, every time there was a medic/jk, there was either a cop or mason(s) to go along with it. Second, how is me accusing Z-Boson in any way helpful to me surviving as the last scum? Think about it for a second: as the last scum, I want to be as non-controversial yet active as possible. Me accusing Z-Bo and then going AFK means that I accomplish neither. Why wouldn't I just lurk quietly or try and agree with everyone else on the popular lynch candidate (debears?) Moreover, if I was scum, and I was trying to mislynch Z-Bo, I should have started backing off as soon as you were wagoning me because then it would quickly become apparent I led a mislynch. But I haven't done any of this. Instead, I've stuck with a highly controversial scumread at the cost of what (little) towncred I had entering the game. Does this fit with what the last scum would do? Addressed earlier. Third: If I am GF, then why would I kill you? You wouldn't be able to check me, you'd be as useless as a hanging paperweight in that instance. Why wouldn't I kill someone who is held up as a confirmed townie, like Stutters, instead of you, who is on several lynch lists anyhow? That's BS, you can't leave a confirmed townie in the game for LYLO, you had to kill him. Fourth: now that you're dead I'm going to do a 180 on the Z-Bo case. I am not the medic, and I doubt a medic exists in this game. If there was a medic you'd be the obvious save and you wouldn't be dead. Hence Z-Bo's vet claim makes sense (notwithstanding him talking about how likely it was that there was a medic). Ergo, if Z-Bo is vet then the last scum is probably between me and debears. "Come hell and high water I'm not going to change my vote!", unless of course there's no medic and Djo gets killed (he already acknowledged he thinks a medic is unlikely when addressing Darth getting NK). This is just keeping up the Boson case charade that he never really believed in. Fifth: why Debears? The guy has been trying to agree with people without pushing substantial independent cases for two complete cycles now. First he wagons Alsn (admittedly, all of us did), then he pushes lists of candidates which have little analysis tied to any one suspect, then flip flops between me and Z-Bo in accusing each other with a weak "fakeclaim scumslip trap" which ironically is a pretty good piece of evidence against Z-Bo. Again, indirectly using the Boson case to show how Debears is much more scummy than him. Fifth: so now I'm going to urge everyone to consolidate on either me or debears to figure this out. If this means I have to vote for myself to get a lynch as opposed to a no-lynch, then so be it. But for now, I'm going to ##Vote debears since I think he's still a lot scummier than I am. So my SS lean is definitely stronger. At this point I doubt Remedy being the final scum, but I'd still like to go through Remedy's filter more carefully and I haven't looked into Corrosion's part of the filter yet. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
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I fucked up badly d3 and I think the only part in your analysis which is wrong is me being confident I was going to win :p GG town and great work Debears, you are indeed a hero for saving town. I found it weird Boson didn't pay much attention to your case because it was fucking great, but it seems he did. And a well played to you too, Boson. | ||
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On October 10 2012 04:34 Hapahauli wrote: GG! I think you still had a shot SDM - Remedy and Shady weren't 100% sold on you being scum yet. Yeah, probably a 10% shot at most or something. I feel kind of bad for giving in because it's kind of against the spirit of the game but honestly I'm quite glad it's over with. The Mafia QT is the 300 post long ramblings of a crazy person :p | ||
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On October 10 2012 04:42 Dandel Ion wrote: More like 2% imo  Most likely yeah :p | ||
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On October 10 2012 04:42 thrawn2112 wrote: Hmm. Well that's game! I didn't quite expect it to end like this so I don't have flavor prepared... I'll probably edit this post later when I think of something. obs qt scum qt Thanks to prplhz for hosting, to all the players for playing, and of course to marv and hapa for coaching Extra special thanks to SDM for being a boss and playing lone scum all game, as well as providing this gif: kush trying to blend in.Lol, I actually prepared a illustration of how d1 went down from my perspective . A true story based on my gifs in Mafia QT: ***Prelude*** Kush and I were born: + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://a1.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/304948_527100410638619_2080342859_n.jpg) ***Game starts*** Kush trying to blend in with the crowd: + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/160sK.gif) Kush trying to put the pressure back on Darth: + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://a.imageshack.us/img651/2436/vipob8.gif) Me being late on the ball with the Kush bus: + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://www.2epix.com/pictures/0fd7e4f42a8b4b4ef33394d35212b13e.gif) Meanwhile in Portugal, Lesrah is trying to figure out the mechanics of the game: + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/cc168/Monkeypox55/feedingfail.gif) Me sending in my n1 actions: + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/vl6CA.gif) ***Finale*** Me thinking I might pull off the win: + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/zw7RG.gif) | ||
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On October 10 2012 05:23 Z-BosoN wrote: But his no-lynch thing actually left us out of mylo. I honestly just took it as a lapse in his brain. I also didn't get the scum motivations for him saying "I wouldn't mind a no-lynch" in his post. When I read it, afterwards I just assumed that he went full retard for whatever reason. Why wouldn't a scum safely lynch his top read and make town go into mylo? I had no idea Stutters would get mod killed. Edit: If I knew that I would've pushed Debears. | ||
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Association with Kush: The way he talked to me stuck out. I don't think this by itself would hold much weight though. Overconfidence: This is something I didn't really think was much different from my XXVII meta (aside from with Kush). It's possible I just didn't realize it myself. Time and indecision This was most certainly a big scum tell. I kind of felt guilty and had to say that I would do stuff and I wouldn't do this as town. Not sure if this is a universal scum tell but for me it certainly is. Open-ended answers I feel like this was the only point Debears brought up that wasn't valid. Contributions I definitely contributed more with original cases in XXVII whereas in XXVIII I did a lot of sheeping. Big tell. The lynch or lack thereof Probably the biggest scum tell of them all. Debears should've pushed more on this in his case. Going to sleep Why on earth would I go to sleep 30 minutes before my #1 scum read is about to get killed and win us the game? I was legitimately exhausted having only slept 2 hours but that doesn't matter. Big brain fart that could've been pushed more. Overconfidence wrt Kush The best new point made by Boson, certainly true. Me bussing Kush after Stutters attacks him I was planning to bus Kush before Stutters made that case. I cursed that Stutters got there before me. I think any scum should bus Kush asap in that situation (but in a less obvious way than I did) because it's obvious he'll get lynched if not d1 most likely d2. I don't think Stutters deserved as much town cred because I think he'd go for the bus as well, but I didn't want to point it out because it'd remove my own town cred :p Why I fucked up at the d3 lynch 1) I had figured out Djo was cop and I wanted to NK him instead because that way it'd be more difficult to track his peeks and for some reason I thought pushing his lynch (which was what I'd do as townie) would make me look bad when he claims. That was obviously terrible reasoning. 2) When Omni was about to get mod killed, for whatever reason I thought I would look less suspect not pushing for an additional mislynch. So both fuck-up 1) and 2) was based on me deliberately not acting like I would've as townie because for some reason I thought it would make me look bad. Big fuck up. 3) It also crossed my mind that I wouldn't mind having Debears still in the game, but I don't think it was the main reason (I didn't think Stutters would get mod killed, that would've changed things). 4) I hadn't thought about lynching Debears so that part was true and I choose to stick to it, but the obvious reason I hadn't thought of lynching Debears is because I was scum :p In the end I fucked up in many ways, but I think I probably would've gotten away with it if it hadn't been for my huge d3 meltdown. | ||
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1. As scum in pressured situations, just do whatever you would've done as town and don't start fucking WIFOM yourself. 2. What Debears said: If something doesn't make any sense from a town perspective, it's scummy. You don't need to know the exact motivations. 3. If you're an aggressive townie (like DP and Boson in this game or me in XXVII), don't be suspicious of players who get in your way. The last thing I wanted was to in your way, be suspicious of the cockriders. In XXVII I got suspicious of Debears immediately jumping mine (and thrawn's) case on Sharrant, but I was so fucking proud of my Sharrant case that I decided not to care about it. The same thing happened early on in this game. | ||
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On October 10 2012 09:06 debears wrote: @SDM Hell of a game as scum. Yeah if you lynched me d3 you would've most likely had it in the bag. I was actually afk during the last 10-20 minutes of that lynch (or hour and 20) so I was fully expecting to be lynched. When it was you that didn't put in the final vote, everything just clicked cuz I know you are way better than that as town Also, the open ended answers thing was something I believed I notice in ver's XXX analysis. On the posts I quoted you just ran in a circle with your thought and didn't really make a statement. I might be wrong on this. Marv or Hapa any input on that point? I agree those type of posts are scummy as hell (putting a thought out there without having an opinion about it yourself, letting others draw the conclusions). I tried to stay away from making them because it's really tempting as scum. I just didn't think they were clear example of such posts. Well, the first one is, but making one such post over the span of the game isn't scummy imo. And yeah, thanks to the hosts and Hapa. If it hadn't been for Hapa I would've truly gone insane in the QT. Oh, and the biggest brain-fuck in the game for me was deciding on the n2 NK. I knew either Boson was vet or DP was medic, but I couldn't know which. Then Boson and DP starting talking about blue roles and I WIFOM my way into NKing DP, which was still a kind of a lucky shot. I also framed Boson n2 so if Djo would've gone ahead with his idea of checking him we would've had a funny d3 where Djo claims cop and peeking Boson scum and Boson counterclaiming vet. No idea what wuold've come out of that :p | ||
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On October 10 2012 09:34 Djodref wrote: I really enjoyed my first game so I would like to thanks everyone for playing, hosting and coaching. I'm a little disapointed that all my scum reads were wrong and that SDM picked me up as the cop during D3. I actually got you right for the wrong reason. It's actually hilarious how wrong I was while still getting it right. For various reasons I managed to narrow down possible cops to either you, Omni or Remedy. Basically you being so apologetic was why I started suspecting you over the others. After that, this is what went down in the QT (I'm mostly talking to myself here): Now I'm pretty sure Djo is cop. I've been sure before though. But Shady stumbles into the thread with a half-assed post and 30 mins later Djo is on his cock. Djo peeked Corrosion n1 and Omni n2. He alsos refuses to take a stance on Omni until he gets back. My prediction is that if Omni comes back, he'll buy his arguments straight off. If he doesn't, Djo doesn't have to look weird trying to defend him. Best case scenario is Omni modkilled and Shady lynched. Djo probably wouldn't claim and I can kill him n3. That would leave only one confirmed townie. Djo confirmed cop. Super-duper-confirm. He peeked Shady n1, Shady tells cop to peek Remedy or Omni n2, Djo peeks Omni. Now I can't decide on if I want to jump the Djo wagon. I'm 4000% sure he's cop. "Let's just assume that Omni, SS and me are town. Who is going to be your next scumread ? " Subtle cop is subtle. WTF he had checked Remedy I got the correct cop but none of the checks I thought he did matched xD | ||
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On October 10 2012 09:59 thrawn2112 wrote: sonic it was so hard watching you talk yourself into targeting the vet n1.. Lol, if that was hard to watch, what about my analysis afterwards? :p Trololol, Darth medic? Darth medic! Itchy scratchy, must kill Darth. Fuck me. I'm going crazy having no one to talk with. Darth must be medic or JK. Or did I just get jailkept? I wouldn't get a notification right? Holy mother of God. More likely Boson got saved. | ||
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On October 10 2012 10:09 Z-BosoN wrote: All your scum reads were wrong? Dude, look at me! I've successfully led lynches against 2 townies and a cop whilst thinking the scum was a town read all game long and not wanting to lynch the first scum in day one. The only correct read I've made wasn't even mine. Was good for me to realize that I was finding people scum for the wrong reasons, and what kind of things I should be looking for. Gonna tackle Liquid City now ;D Lol, I feel you. The only way I ever make a correct read is if I know everyone's alignment :p | ||
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On October 10 2012 13:30 Hapahauli wrote: But after talking about how he didn't mind a no-lynch, after the town actually no-lynches, he does a complete emotional 180: He posts this seconds after the no-lynch: he shouldn't mind this result judging from his previous postings, yet all of a sudden he cares? Scumtell here. This wasn't wrt the no-lynch, but to Stutters getting modkilled. I was completely surpised and I could've easily gotten modkilled myself here. | ||
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On October 10 2012 22:19 marvellosity wrote: I would like to note that SDM's bus of kush isn't as 'obvious' as it may seem in hindsight. Especially in newbie games, scum players have a really hard time bussing players decisively (or at all). And even in relation to non-newbie games, the early timing of the bus was impressive and something many scum players aren't capable of. Good scum play is often fast thinking and decisive, like that bus. The beautiful flip side to this is SDM's actions at the no-lynch where he was confused and indecisive and got caught for it. Yeah, my bus probably wasn't too bad. After I get caught doing something really stupid d3 it's easy to go back and make up a good scum rationale for everything I did. I feel like it's equal part logic and confirmation bias, kind of like how Debears and Boson interpreted my absence from the thread: 1) Debears used it to argue I was really scared 2) Boson used it to argue I was really confident They make the same observation, their analyses of it are polar opposite but their conclusions are still the same: I'm scum. In reality I never avoided the thread on purpose (at least not for the long stretches of time in question). | ||
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On October 11 2012 00:20 marvellosity wrote: Your play on kush could have been done by scum or towny; the problem for the other townies was that they couldn't see the scum perspective for a long time. Yeah, realizing they had handed out unjustified townie cred was crucial. Kind of like how I got townie cred in XXVI from voting Stutters instead of Cubu (flipped green) d1, without them even knowing the alignment of Stutters. | ||
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On October 11 2012 01:55 debears wrote: I wasn't (at least intentionally) saying that you were scared. I found it awkward (if you were town) to suddenly disappear after a giant amount of confusion without explaining why you did what you did, especially when Z-Bo called you out for bad town play. That's a fair observation actually. Maybe they're not as contradictory as I fist thought. It just pissed me off a little bit that all three times I was absent from the thread 20h+ it was used as an argument for me being scum, while whether I'm town or scum this will always happen. The timing when you pointed it out it was pretty legitimate though. | ||
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