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On October 05 2012 13:04 RemedySC wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2012 05:56 Omniscient4983 wrote:Thoughts on night actions:On October 01 2012 05:14 DarthPunk wrote:
LOL. Seems scum really went for it. Nice medic save! I'm guessing scum targeted Darth, and the medic saved him. He was the obvious candidate for NK, but the mafia tried to kill him anyway despite there being a high chance that a medic would be on him. This means that scum is desperate to get Darth out of the game. Why? Not only was he correct about Kush, but he gave his 3 top scum reads during the night in this order:
Debears
Djodref
AlsnFrom my perspective: since scum targeted Darth, one of his three reads has a high likelihood of being correct. If he was headed in the wrong direction with these reads, scum would have taken out someone else and let him lead us astray. Attempting to NK Darth was a huge risk, but I believe it's one scum had to take because he was so on track, and having him alive would spell their doom in the end.What does everyone else think? Why have such an out of the blue description of what could have happened? He seems to know a lot about what scum would have done in this situation. For mafia motivation I can see him trying to lead us to three lynches, which we've already done one.
I know Drazak slipped his medic role in XXVI after his night action and Xatalos picked up on it (that's why I don't really like blue role discussions after night actions). This is not how he slipped though, Drazak slipped it by talking about the rationale of the medic. I feel like this could easily just be scum trying to passively suggest three mislynches (we should lynch Debears, Djodref and Alsn, not because I want to but because Darth wants to) or just a green speculating. Or possibly a medic, but the risk of him being medic AND missing to save Darth seems rather low to me. You need two rather low probability events to coincide for that to be true.
Basically I just don't make much out of this post.
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I'm pretty thrawn suggested in XXVII that scum is more likely to be talking about the NK rationale of scum. I don't think I've seen that myself though so I'm not sure whether it's true. Probably not, night actions seems like a rather common talking point in newbie games.
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When thinking about it, I feel like his post is scummy. Medics tend to slip by talking about the rationale of the medic (drazak) and scum slips by talking about the rationale of the scum (thrawn's argument). At least that's how it seems to me. Like how the "if I was scum I wouldn't have..." argument is inherently scummy. Maybe this is confirmation bias speaking but I would like to think this makes sense.
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On October 05 2012 14:19 Shady Sands wrote:
By the way, I'm reading through the thread. Right now, my top scumread, believe it or not, is Z-Boson. His interaction with Kush D1 was just... strange (it almost feels like half of the discussion there was occurring somewhere else, like in the Scum QT), his unvote of Debears and transfer to Alsn is also wierd, and finally his constant fingerpointing without any commitment D3 fits the profile of being the very last scum trying to stay alive and set up mislynch chains over the next few cycles.
##FoS Z-Boson
Is this the point where you disappear again? You might want to answer these questions:
On October 04 2012 22:16 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:Just went through the Shady part of the filter... not a lot of posts but the ones there are certainly aren't convincing. Show nested quote +On October 02 2012 16:21 Shady Sands wrote:
I'm still not sold on Debears yet. Every time people push him as a lynch and everyone just nods along and agrees (this is based on a cursory ready through 30+ pages of filter late at night, so pardon me if I'm totally wrong about this), I get a wierd feeling in the pit of my stomach. Why? Because scum is already down one, there is almost zero chance they'd accede easily to a second consecutive bus. So if everyone is nodding along on Debears, and scum isn't going to roll over and bus again, then, WIFOM as this reasoning is, it doesn't seem reasonable that Debears should be scum.
How do you choose Debears over Alsn because everyone "nods along" to his case? Where did you get the impression anyone was oppose the Alsn wagon? Show nested quote +On October 03 2012 10:01 Shady Sands wrote:
Alright, since Lesrah wasn't posting through D2 then that means that if debears was the other scum there was no other scum trying to stop his lynch. Hence the lack of opposition to his lynch becomes less of a town-tell to me. This, coupled with the earlier case on him (which he hasn't adequately responded to, imo) makes me view him as scum.
## Vote debears
I mean like... what? The lack of resistance for the Debears wagon was the only reason you didn't like it? And instead choose the Alsn wagon which had just as little resistance? Nothing else, other than that he hasn't "adequately responded" to his earlier case. Not even mentioning which part of the case you think makes Debears suspicious. Not only do your weak reasoning make you suspicious of Debears, it makes you certain he is scum? Show nested quote +On October 03 2012 13:16 Shady Sands wrote:On October 03 2012 13:12 debears wrote:@Shady On October 03 2012 10:01 Shady Sands wrote:
Alright, since Lesrah wasn't posting through D2 then that means that if debears was the other scum there was no other scum trying to stop his lynch. Hence the lack of opposition to his lynch becomes less of a town-tell to me. This, coupled with the earlier case on him (which he hasn't adequately responded to, imo) makes me view him as scum.
## Vote debears
Heading out for the night. If I don't make it back by daypost, cop please check omni or remedy and remember it is possible GF is last mafia. That's all, glhf. If you believe I'm the last scum, why wouldn't you nightcheck me? Why should I? It wastes a nightcheck on someone I'm certain is scum. Such complete and ridiculous sheeping, unfortunately you're not the only one. Show nested quote +On October 04 2012 17:08 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Shady is coming off suspicious. He first drops in and puts a vote on Alsn d2. Now he just drops in and put a vote in on Debears, a target where there has seemed to concensus in the past and there is unlikely to be resistance. If he's scum he's in a position where there seems to likely be two targets he can pick off really easily and town loses several days. Other than that he's doing nothing at all.
Now I'll give you, making a case against Boson doesn't come off as very scummy to me since it'll definitely give you some attention, but it could easily be that you've read my "just cruising by" argument against and realize you need something new. This needs to be something better than a "His interaction with Kush D1 was just... strange" quality argument. Point out what about the discussion you think is occuring somewhere else.
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On October 05 2012 14:30 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Is this the point where you disappear again?
Confirmed.
I'll just say right away I'm not jumping a late Boson wagon, at least not if those are the arguments. Shady's post is a joke, what does this even mean?
On October 05 2012 14:19 Shady Sands wrote:
his unvote of Debears and transfer to Alsn is also wierd
I have no idea what's going on here.
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On October 05 2012 15:07 Djodref wrote:
Seriously guys, we have to be careful.
Looking at today's discussion, in the case of a town Omni, this is just a golden day for the last scum !
He can just drop by, cast his vote on Omni with a good reason because it's true that he does look scummy and disappear without anyone noticing him.
In my opinion, Omni is a lurker above anything else and we have yet to hear from him. With his posting habits, I doubt that he is going to have enough time to defend himself...
And what's your counter suggestion? Push a lynch on Boson who no one other than Debears seem to have looked into in detail until just a few minutes ago? What happened to your conviction to lynch Debears?
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I need to leave but I'll be back as soon as I can.
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On October 05 2012 16:11 Djodref wrote:
And right now, I want to lynch debears much much more than Z-Boson. I think you have misread me.
Also regarding the vote of Z-Boson during D2, I really felt that he reserved his right to vote after his "battle for the noose post". By unvoting just after this post (let the best scum survive) and voting at the end of day for the wagon of his choice, it could have been a very safe way to cast his vote, if he was scum.
I don't know what you're trying to say. Under the assumption Boson is scum, it was a town/town wagon.
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On October 05 2012 16:41 Z-BosoN wrote:
This is very intriguing...
Thanks for that post SS, it brought out some very interesting reactions.
Of course, your case is laughable, as usual.
Of course, as scum, I would want to switch my vote towards a townie, in favor of, let's see, another townie. I will definitely bother producing a fuckton of text just for that.
Anyways, djodref managed to be even worse. Please reread your points against me, and think of how they could come from me as scum. Think about what your FOS accomplishes for town here today. I'll be accepting donations to make up for you making my eyes bleed.
If Omni doesn't answer, it's either debears/djodref/SS imo. Pointless lynching a modkill. Will decide come tomorrow, I gotta go sleep.
SDM, I'd love to know your input on who you'd rather lynch save Omni.
I'm sleepy as hell and will go to sleep, but probably during class tomorrow I'm gonna make up my mind.
RSC, same thing.
Gnight!
Not sure, Shady was my second pick until my brain just recently exploded. Djo's FOS was totally of the blue but I don't necessarily see a strong mafia motivation. If he's mafia maybe he wanted an easy wagon on you and backed off once Debears and I replied? Seems kind of unlikely.
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On October 05 2012 20:09 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On October 05 2012 16:41 Z-BosoN wrote:
This is very intriguing...
Thanks for that post SS, it brought out some very interesting reactions.
Of course, your case is laughable, as usual.
Of course, as scum, I would want to switch my vote towards a townie, in favor of, let's see, another townie. I will definitely bother producing a fuckton of text just for that.
Anyways, djodref managed to be even worse. Please reread your points against me, and think of how they could come from me as scum. Think about what your FOS accomplishes for town here today. I'll be accepting donations to make up for you making my eyes bleed.
If Omni doesn't answer, it's either debears/djodref/SS imo. Pointless lynching a modkill. Will decide come tomorrow, I gotta go sleep.
SDM, I'd love to know your input on who you'd rather lynch save Omni.
I'm sleepy as hell and will go to sleep, but probably during class tomorrow I'm gonna make up my mind.
RSC, same thing.
Gnight!
This is exactly the sort of post which I don't like seeing from Z-Boson. Let's see what it does for him here: 1) It makes him look pro-town without contributing independent analysis 2) It lets him potentially join a wagon on nearly anyone in the town without looking suspicious 3) It puts all the onus for scumhunting on other people while not putting his own neck out for anyone4) It lets him have an excuse to get the last word in/join a wagon late without his timing looking suspicious at all
You haven't even clarified why you voted Debears.
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On October 05 2012 20:32 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On October 05 2012 20:29 Shady Sands wrote:On October 05 2012 20:27 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:On October 05 2012 20:09 Shady Sands wrote:On October 05 2012 16:41 Z-BosoN wrote:
This is very intriguing...
Thanks for that post SS, it brought out some very interesting reactions.
Of course, your case is laughable, as usual.
Of course, as scum, I would want to switch my vote towards a townie, in favor of, let's see, another townie. I will definitely bother producing a fuckton of text just for that.
Anyways, djodref managed to be even worse. Please reread your points against me, and think of how they could come from me as scum. Think about what your FOS accomplishes for town here today. I'll be accepting donations to make up for you making my eyes bleed.
If Omni doesn't answer, it's either debears/djodref/SS imo. Pointless lynching a modkill. Will decide come tomorrow, I gotta go sleep.
SDM, I'd love to know your input on who you'd rather lynch save Omni.
I'm sleepy as hell and will go to sleep, but probably during class tomorrow I'm gonna make up my mind.
RSC, same thing.
Gnight!
This is exactly the sort of post which I don't like seeing from Z-Boson. Let's see what it does for him here: 1) It makes him look pro-town without contributing independent analysis 2) It lets him potentially join a wagon on nearly anyone in the town without looking suspicious 3) It puts all the onus for scumhunting on other people while not putting his own neck out for anyone4) It lets him have an excuse to get the last word in/join a wagon late without his timing looking suspicious at all You haven't even clarified why you voted Debears. I voted Alsn?? ebwop I see what you mean here. I voted Debears because he was playing scummy, and because other than him, there was no good lynch candidate. But if Z-Boson is scum, then Debears can't be, and it makes me view the case on Debears (a large part of which came from ZB) in a new light. Does that make sense?
No, not at all. For starters, explain why Debears can't be scum.
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Besides you voted Debears after Alsn had flipped green. If you think Alsn's green flip means Debears can't be scum, why did you vote on him?
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But it still makes no sense to me. You assume Boson is scum, thus Debears can't be scum and thus Boson must be scum. Your assumption is your conclusion.
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On October 05 2012 20:37 Djodref wrote:
So why shouldn't we lynch debears first to have his alignment ?
I think we can have a consensus today on debears and hopefully Omni gets modkilled. What do you think about this proposition ?
If we lynch Debears it should be because we think he's a likely scum. I'm not totally opposed to that idea, but do you think his alignment will tell us?
Besides I'm more suspicious of this Shady guy than I am of Debears atm.
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EBWOP: "what do you think his alignment will tell us?"
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I need to grap some food and reread all this stuff, my head is spinning. For now...
##Unvote
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On October 05 2012 20:46 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On October 05 2012 20:39 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
But it still makes no sense to me. You assume Boson is scum, thus Debears can't be scum and thus Boson must be scum. Your assumption is your conclusion. No I know Alsn is town. I know ZB is trying to avoid pushing hard for a Debears lynch D2/3 even though he pushed a Debears lynch D1. Thus ZB's case on Debears feels insincere. Thus most of the case on Debears gets thrown out by me. At the same time, I ask why ZB would want to push for a D1 Debears lynch even over Kush. Answer: Save Kush since Lesrah is AFK. I also ask why ZB would suddenly back away D2/D3. Answer: Avoid having town realize that the D1 push on Debears was a mislynch, accrue towncred, survive till endgame. I cannot find any townie motivation why ZB would flip from pushing Debears over Kush D1 to accepting Alsn D2 and FoSing half the town over Debears D3.
That's actually an interesting case.
It's true Boson ignored the Kush case d1. He had a good case on Debears imo, so I didn't really find it weird he was pushing his own case (we all tend to be biased towards our own cases, at least that's true for me). I need to go back and look up his filter myself. He did switch to Alsn and I can't remember his reasonings. I feel like the individual pieces of evidence you have are not that strong, but they paint an interesting picture.
One question I have right off the bat, if it was all a big master plan, why did he initially vote for Debears d2? Seems like it could've caused the noose battle to become one-sided. Anyway, I'll go back and check his filter, I'm not 100% sure of those events.
What do you think of the Omni case? Having to read both of your filters I doubt I'll have time to make up my mind on this and I still like it.
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D2 voting:
Debears by Darth 1-0
Debears by Djo 2-0
Alsn by Darth 1-1
Debears by Alsn 2-1
Debears by Omni 3-1
Alsn by SDM 3-2
Alsn by Debears 3-3
Debears by Boson 4-3
Alsn by Shady 4-4
Unvote + BotN by Boson 3-4
Alsn by Remedy 3-5
Alsn by Djo 2-6
Alsn by Stutters 2-7
Alsn by Boson 2-8
I'd need my conspiracy goggles on to see Boson pushing Alsn here. Read the links, it doesn't looks like Boson tries to nudge the decision in Debears favor. The case doesn't necessarily hinge on this, but it makes it considerably weaker. I'd need more time to read filters...
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EPT
