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Newbie Mini Mafia XXVIII - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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RemedySC
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada176 Posts
October 05 2012 19:53 GMT
#1050
Debears won't be lynched if us three go on him now. There is no way. Only other viable person at the moment is Boson...
RemedySC
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada176 Posts
October 05 2012 19:53 GMT
#1052
We need four, there is only three of us!
RemedySC
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada176 Posts
October 05 2012 19:54 GMT
#1053
Sorry Z-bo

##Unvote

Vote Z-Boson
RemedySC
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada176 Posts
October 05 2012 19:54 GMT
#1055
EBWOP ##Vote Z-Boson
RemedySC
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada176 Posts
October 05 2012 19:56 GMT
#1061
4 minutes SDM, what do you think of his RC?

Proof quickly Boson
RemedySC
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada176 Posts
October 05 2012 19:58 GMT
#1065
##unvote

##vote debears

Damnit!
RemedySC
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada176 Posts
October 05 2012 19:59 GMT
#1067
one more vote on debears secures it. He is the last choice I believe other than SS.
RemedySC
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada176 Posts
October 05 2012 20:41 GMT
#1079
I'm going out now, but I just want to say based on this information I only see two possibilities for mafia left.

Debears or SS..

This wasn't all in vain. If Z-Bo's rc checks out, that is another confirmed town. We only have 2 more shots at this, if we mislynch D4 than we will be at mylo D5... I really wish I could think more on this, and I really wanted a win today.

This weekend is my wife and I's first anniversary, we are going away for 2 nights, I can post from the hotel before bed, but other than that I won't be around. Leaving tomorrow morning.
RemedySC
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada176 Posts
October 05 2012 20:42 GMT
#1080
EBWOP - D3 to D4?
RemedySC
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada176 Posts
October 07 2012 01:43 GMT
#1152
In my hotel, putting my vote on Debears for now and I'll be back in a few hours.

##Vote Debears
RemedySC
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada176 Posts
October 09 2012 03:22 GMT
#1211
Just got back home from my mini vacation.

On October 08 2012 09:47 Z-BosoN wrote:
RSC, what do you make of all this? Show your face here please. You are too fucking lurky.


Boson - I think that was a bit unnecessary. My wife and I made last minute plans to go on a road trip for our first anniversary. I posted about it if you would have paid attention.

On October 06 2012 05:41 RemedySC wrote:
This weekend is my wife and I's first anniversary, we are going away for 2 nights, I can post from the hotel before bed, but other than that I won't be around. Leaving tomorrow morning.


Turned out though that I was too busy to participate during the weekend. I apologize for my absence.

Anyways -

I was sure that Debears was going to flip mafia. Going to read through some filters since it looks like I missed a lot. Will have something posted, if not before bed, than before the Day post.
RemedySC
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada176 Posts
October 09 2012 18:05 GMT
#1214
On October 09 2012 08:04 Z-BosoN wrote:
So SDM, why should we lynch shady and not RSC?
I dunno, rereading the filters, I'm starting to have a bad townie feel on corrosion. However, RSC also gives me a town feel. And there's no way you are scum so wtf is going on lol
Find anything interesting in the filters?


Could you elaborate more on why you are starting to get a bad townie feel on Corrosion? I was reading through Debears filter and came upon his case against Corrosion.


On September 30 2012 11:51 debears wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

Corrosion, on the other hand, has stronger evidence piling up.

First, his call out of remedy early in the game was unwarranted

Show nested quote +
On September 29 2012 02:47 corrosion wrote:
@Remedy

You made two posts without much content early on D1, and there's been nothing since then. You implied that you were going to contribute more than last game you played. So why don't you tell us about your reads so far?



He wants Remedy to post more and tell him about Remedy's reads. However, he had not posted any reads of his own at this point. It's contradicting. Something that can make him look like he's contributing.

Now, on to him post about Darth

Show nested quote +
On September 29 2012 04:29 corrosion wrote:
I'm just going to address the "fight" between Darth and Kush. I'm going to focus on Darth for now. Looking more closely into Kush's contribution is something I think should be done well ahead of lynch time.

I'm actually going to start by telling about some thoughts I had after reading my role PM. I was trying to figure out what players town should be focusing on. I had obsed NMMXXVII, and came to the conclusion that it might be reasonable to go after any player except Kush. I figured that Kush was going to make a lot of posts anyway, so I was thinking that we could get a good analysis of him without any early pressure.

One of the first things Darth did was to antagonize Kush:

+ Show Spoiler +
On September 28 2012 08:34 DarthPunk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 28 2012 06:58 kushm4sta wrote:
@sonic
getting everyone's thoughts on lurker policy is important. Don't argue about it but share your views on the matter please..

No it's not. It is simply a mechanism to get the discussion going and allows scum to seem to participate and to potentially mislynch an inactive townie. Any more talk of policy will get you FoS'd.


I'm thinking that this could easily be an attempt to start a fight that would result in derailing the thread. Kush responded the way I expected him to, and these two posters exchanged arguments back and forth.

In the middle of this, Darth made a remark against lurkers, but quickly changed his focus back on Kush.

On September 28 2012 10:36 DarthPunk wrote:
So is everyone just going to drop their welcome posts and then afk?


I don't see why he should make this comment at this time, since it wasn't going to get looked at while there was a fight going on.

Shortly afterwards, Kush makes his supposed scum slip. Darth jumps on it, and shortly afterwards he posts about his previous mafia games. I've watched the game where he played cop, and seen that he and Shady argued a lot on D1. So I was thinking that this seems to be Darth's town meta. But I also asked myself why he did post about his previous games at this point in time. Maybe this was all intentional. Suppose he suddenly remembered that game. He might not have wanted people to look at those games earlier, but now he realized that if he posted them he would be able to establish a town read on himself.

I'm not sure if this is a strong case against Darth at the moment. I would like some input from the more experienced players here. If Kush hadn't made that slip, I think the derailing argument would have looked strong. Now it doesn't look so strong, because we've actually gotten new information. I'm not saying that I'm sure the scum slip is an actual slip, but if it is and it results in a succesful lynch, I think town got very lucky. Scum usually wouldn't slip in such an obvious manner.

His cases against Debears and Alsn are something that might reveal useful information, but I've not studied them closely yet. I still think that Kush seems more suspicious when everything is taken into consideration but with all the focus that has been on him, I'm sure someone else can post a decent case on him before we need to consider our first lynch.



This post really raised my eyes looking back at it. First, he mentions darth's "everybody stop leaving after your intro" post. He doesn't see reason although the reason is clear at that moment: everyone was doing that.

Next, he brings up about why darth brought up darth's past games. It was pretty easy to see at that point that I asked darth for that information. This indicates to me that he(corrosion) wasn't reading the thread. He was most likely skimming. At all stages in the game, a townie must be reading and rereading the thread, since a townie has no extra information and townies have to catch the mafia. Mafia, on the other hand, don't have to do the same. They can get away with skimming since they just need to keep the town distracted.

Now, I'm going to pull out the phrase with red

I'm not saying that I'm sure the scum slip is an actual slip, but if it is and it results in a succesful lynch, I think town got very lucky. Scum usually wouldn't slip in such an obvious manner.

Notice the wording, "I think town got lucky". Not we, the town. He seems to be excluding himself from us. Not strong at all in itself, but something to notice.
If he thinks that town would be lucky if kush flipped red, then it is sensible to assume that he thinks kush is town.

Next post,

+ Show Spoiler +
On September 29 2012 07:17 corrosion wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 29 2012 05:50 Z-BosoN wrote:
corrosion, some issues with your post.

...


You're not seeing my points in the proper context. Now maybe you think my analysis is weak. I can understand that view. I haven't played in one of these before, so I'm not really good at seeing the difference between weak arguments and strong arguments. Some of the other posters in the thread encouraged new players to post, but maybe I should have waited awhile and tried to build a really solid case.

Show nested quote +

Who are you more inclined to vote on and why? I can't tell by the wishy-washy tone of your post


I haven't made up mind yet, so I'll be voting tomorrow. I'm thinking Kush, but I'll browse the latest developments tomorrow and see if anything has changed by then.



So he thinks kush will most likely be town, yet he is thinking about voting for him? That's not sensible.

Show nested quote +
On September 29 2012 17:57 corrosion wrote:
Good morning. I'm going to comment on a couple of things.

+ Show Spoiler +
On September 29 2012 10:59 DarthPunk wrote:
Addressing a few things that stood out to me.

Show nested quote +
On September 29 2012 04:29 corrosion wrote:
Darth jumps on it, and shortly afterwards he posts about his previous mafia games. I've watched the game where he played cop, and seen that he and Shady argued a lot on D1. So I was thinking that this seems to be Darth's town meta. But I also asked myself why he did post about his previous games at this point in time. Maybe this was all intentional. Suppose he suddenly remembered that game. He might not have wanted people to look at those games earlier, but now he realized that if he posted them he would be able to establish a town read on himself.


So yeah I went back through the thread to address this specifically. I was asked to post my previous mafia games. and then I did. And now that is some sort of attempt for me to use my meta to clear myself? Right.

...



You're absolutely right. I see that you posted links to your previous games only a few minutes after Debears requested it. I missed this because I was just looking through your filter and didn't keep enough attention on the thread itself. My bad.

I'm going to look at Stutter's case against Kush and other recent developments. For now, I'll vote as I implied in my last post.

##Vote Kushm4sta



So, the one whom he thought would be a "lucky" scum flip is now his biggest scum read? In my eyes, this sudden flip can be easily explained if he is mafia. At this point, he is the second to last person to vote for kush. Kush is doomed. If he is mafia, he realizes there is no reason and should hop on the bandwagon. Notice that his reasoning is poor in previous posts. He never had a strong indication of kush as mafia.

Furthermore, I want to point out that his only case at this point was kush. He had not done any scumhunting up to this point besides a one liner saying that I confirmed Djordref as town. You can say it's scumhunting but one line =/= a case.

Hist next post is a response to Z-Boson. His responses are in the red (it's how he formatted it in his original post).

+ Show Spoiler +
On September 29 2012 18:43 corrosion wrote:

Adressing your issues:

+ Show Spoiler +


3) You are just rambling here, I think. I take the DP/kush exchange as being genuine, unless they are both scum and agreed to flaming each other. I don't think thta's likely, due to kush's fiery meta.

The first paragraph was a mistake by me, explained in my previous post. The intention of the second paragraph, was to try to get some feedback from other posters. Right now, I don't think the case is strong at all so I actually think people should focus more on their own reads and trying to find the best lynching candidate.

4) I don't get the reasoning behind this post. You are trying to make a case on DP, and concluded that you don't feel like it and actually think that kush is a better lynch? Also, stutters has made a case on him. Why not reference that?

I wasn't as much trying to make a case as just referencing my findings. I was trying the approach of focusing on one player (suggested in one of the guides). I figured that someone else was going to post a case on Kush, so I tried to focus on a player that noone else was pressuring much. I'll admit that my attempt seems to have failed quite a bit. The reason that I didn't reference Stutters, was that he made his case 7 minutes before I posted. I did not check the thread for new posts before I posted.



This post is another one that makes me scratch my head. He has a vote on kush, who he doesn't think will flip scum, and a case on DP. He drops the case on DP, now calling it a "reference" and stating that he "wasn't trying to make a case".

Here, he finally states his reasoning for voting kush. Notice the timestamp. Way after his vote

On September 29 2012 21:59 corrosion wrote:
Let me just state the reasons that my vote is on Kush right now:

1) I think his explanation of the slip was poor. If he had given a good explanation, I might have believed him.
2) I've been thinking about who would benefit if the result is a no-lynch. I'm thinking mafia is likely to benefit the most from a no-lynch.


Right now, I think that there's more than a 25 % chance that Kush is scum. Therefore, I'm voting for him. I'm not sure if any of these points are original. I'm having trouble keeping up with the thread, because I tend to get hanged up in details.


His point 1) Notice the timestamp of his vote post. Now, look at the timestamp of kush's explanation

+ Show Spoiler +
On September 28 2012 20:12 kushm4sta wrote:
Sup have to make this post real quick. Will read everything and post on my phone late.r

1. Why are you putting my name in red like darth? it seems like you are subliminally trying to influence people to your cause.
This is a game of logic not advertising.

2. My supposed scumslip: huh? What else should I have called you? Player? Person? Maybe but to me those things sound awkward. Townie just seemed like the most non awkward word to use.
Innocent until proven guilty. That's how we do it in America bro.



Corrosion's vote came way after the explanation. He had made no mention about disliking the explanation even through his vote post. The only time he brings it up is way after the vote post when he decides to suddenly explain the reasoning for his vote

On pt 2) What did the no lynch have to do with his vote on kush? A no lynch was not even in the discussion. At this point, there were 2 good candidates for lynching. Me and Kush. This is all way too odd to ignore.

And finally, the last post I will look at

+ Show Spoiler +
On September 30 2012 05:16 corrosion wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 29 2012 05:50 Z-BosoN wrote:
corrosion, some issues with your post.

3) You are just rambling here, I think. I take the DP/kush exchange as being genuine, unless they are both scum and agreed to flaming each other. I don't think thta's likely, due to kush's fiery meta.


I considered the possibility of both being scum early on but if both were scum, I see no reason whatsoever for Kush's scumslip. So I'm now saying that Darth is close to being confirmed town. This is something town should keep in mind during N1 and D2. It would be a spectacular bus if they did this on purpose. The only reason I can see for doing that, would be if Kush had slipped earlier in the thread. I do not think so but if someone wants to look into it, go ahead. I'm not going to spend my time on that.



So he still has some suspicions in regard to DP, whom he was suspicious of d1. Yet, he says that some one else can check it out. He seems to not care about scumhunting and following his leads. He is not exhibiting townie behavior. If the town should keep it in mind, why isn't he researching it to help our cause?

Overall, I could see Corrosion as scum. He follows the trend of what I look for. He doubted the case on kush (even tried a case against DP) but then suddenly switched to kush with no reasoning until later.

His actions mostly have mafia motivations (unless I'm mistaken).


This post echoes a lot of my suspicions on Corrosion. Shady has been a way better poster than Corrosion though, so maybe it was bad townie...

Anyways -

With Boson being pretty much confirmed, that leaves SDM and Shady.

I really want to believe Shady is the last mafia, but if its not him than that leaves SDM...

Debears post on SDM got me questioning myself as to why did we have a town read on SDM? Is it only because he sealed the deal in the Kush case? Beacuse looking at his case, he states right at the beginning of it -

On September 29 2012 05:05 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Making a Kush case at this point is kind of like trying to kick in an open door.


From this I gather that SDM knows kush is going to be lynched. So what does a mafia do when their one active team mate is about to be lynched D1? Get as much town cred as possible, so maybe there is a chance that they could still win.

This is posted from my phone... Such a frustrating method...
RemedySC
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada176 Posts
October 09 2012 19:40 GMT
#1226
Good game guys. SDM, that was awesome mafia play though! debears post was a game changer.
RemedySC
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada176 Posts
October 09 2012 20:10 GMT
#1237
Boson your case on SDM would have really fortified my suspicions of him if the game would have continued. Gg
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