EPTOn September 26 2012 20:56 marvellosity wrote:
Sounds logical, but bear in mind a few things:
1) Scum do not know at the time there is a protective role;
2) In my experience (I could cite countless examples) mafia will often go for high priority targets, even with the risk that they will be protected
3) If you're not protecting the obvious target, you're taking a stab in the dark guessing who the mafia WILL hit, and chances are you probably won't get a successful save off anyay.
4) The risk of losing Sharrant, someone you know to be townie AND useful, is too high to NOT protect him
Show nested quote +
On September 26 2012 20:41 Dandel Ion wrote:
It was okay in THIS game, because there were no townier townies.
I'm saying usually scum would avoid hitting just one of the masons (unless they have 2 KP to kill both or something), and if both masons are even approx. equally useful, there's no knowing which one will get hit.
I'd have thought that's pretty logical, but apparantly not...
On September 26 2012 20:13 marvellosity wrote:
Thanks go to my co-hosts, and to Hapahauli for providing a large chunk of analysis there, good job.
Lots of comments I could make, but for now I disagree strongly with this:
I thought his Night 1 JK was absolutely the right action. What happens if mafia actually DO hit Sharrant, and you just let them kill the only useful confirmed townie?
There are several threads of this through my own games that I've played here. My first and most 'ouch' memory was from Magic Mini - I had almost singlehandedly pushed through a scum lynch day 2, and then I called out 2 of the remaining 3 scum during Night 2. I was the only viable protection target. Except for the doctor thought "they'll never hit him knowing I'll protect him" and protected some random townie. Mafia took the chance shooting me at night, and town ended up losing the game.
Basically protect your assets. Which SDM did.
Edit: just while I'm thinking about it, there was also quite a bit of totally incorrect setup speculation going on, about numbers of mafia, SK role, number of blues etc. It seemed to hurt town at some stages because there were incorrect assumptions. Never assume about the setup unless you know for sure.
Thanks go to my co-hosts, and to Hapahauli for providing a large chunk of analysis there, good job.
Lots of comments I could make, but for now I disagree strongly with this:
On September 26 2012 19:56 Dandel Ion wrote:
Yes, I was pretty sure you were.
But it didn't matter, we needed a KP role to still win this, or for people to switch to debears. Both would've been fine.
Unfortunately, Killing trusts his DT check blindly, and the rest of town was not even there...
Hm, I said that before I knew Sharrant was JK'd, when thrawn was the only one that claimed.
But I still think that usually, it would be bad play to JK a mason in that situation. I guess it didn't matter since you can't JK yourself, but I think my logic is solid:
Scum won't kill just 1/2 of the masons if there is still a JK/medic in the game. He will camp the confirmed town, forcing scum to shoot relatively blindly for the JK/medic instead of the confirmed town, all the while leaving a confirmed town in the game.
Which would usually spell disaster for the scumteam, but the confirmed town this game was Sharky, so in the end, I guess it really didn't matter.
But there was no real way for you to know sharky would be useless. I think your decision was wrong. It practically did not matter, because scum shot you (bad luck there), but it COULD have mattered and I stand by my opinion that you did not play your nightaction as well as you could have.
Eh, as I said, not really applicable in THIS very game, but remember for the next time you roll JK
On September 26 2012 12:59 thrawn2112 wrote:
lol hapa, by the time I made that case, all town thought I was scum. and the basis of my case was that I'm town so.......
dandel lon when I claimed vig did you still think I was sk?
lol hapa, by the time I made that case, all town thought I was scum. and the basis of my case was that I'm town so.......
dandel lon when I claimed vig did you still think I was sk?
Yes, I was pretty sure you were.
But it didn't matter, we needed a KP role to still win this, or for people to switch to debears. Both would've been fine.
Unfortunately, Killing trusts his DT check blindly, and the rest of town was not even there...
On September 26 2012 16:29 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
I think this is pretty spot on.
I almost JK you n1. You were townie to me, so good job on that. I still think JK anyone except for Sharrant would be pretty bad. At first I thought Dandel made a decent point for JK thrawn, but now I'm pretty decided it was a weak argument.
Still not decided on who the best n1 NK was from scum's perspective. I was pretty sure they'd kill thrawn, Sharrant or me though.
On September 26 2012 15:06 thrawn2112 wrote:
lol it's happened in all my games. as the game progresses there is always one thing that people like to include in their cases more and more as the game continues until it reaches the point where reads get pretty awful. I guess it happens because A) everyone is a noob so they don't know exactly what to look for when catching scum and B) mafia pick up on it and start including it in their cases
lol it's happened in all my games. as the game progresses there is always one thing that people like to include in their cases more and more as the game continues until it reaches the point where reads get pretty awful. I guess it happens because A) everyone is a noob so they don't know exactly what to look for when catching scum and B) mafia pick up on it and start including it in their cases
I think this is pretty spot on.
I almost JK you n1. You were townie to me, so good job on that. I still think JK anyone except for Sharrant would be pretty bad. At first I thought Dandel made a decent point for JK thrawn, but now I'm pretty decided it was a weak argument.
Still not decided on who the best n1 NK was from scum's perspective. I was pretty sure they'd kill thrawn, Sharrant or me though.
Hm, I said that before I knew Sharrant was JK'd, when thrawn was the only one that claimed.
But I still think that usually, it would be bad play to JK a mason in that situation. I guess it didn't matter since you can't JK yourself, but I think my logic is solid:
Scum won't kill just 1/2 of the masons if there is still a JK/medic in the game. He will camp the confirmed town, forcing scum to shoot relatively blindly for the JK/medic instead of the confirmed town, all the while leaving a confirmed town in the game.
Which would usually spell disaster for the scumteam, but the confirmed town this game was Sharky, so in the end, I guess it really didn't matter.
But there was no real way for you to know sharky would be useless. I think your decision was wrong. It practically did not matter, because scum shot you (bad luck there), but it COULD have mattered and I stand by my opinion that you did not play your nightaction as well as you could have.
Eh, as I said, not really applicable in THIS very game, but remember for the next time you roll JK
I thought his Night 1 JK was absolutely the right action. What happens if mafia actually DO hit Sharrant, and you just let them kill the only useful confirmed townie?
There are several threads of this through my own games that I've played here. My first and most 'ouch' memory was from Magic Mini - I had almost singlehandedly pushed through a scum lynch day 2, and then I called out 2 of the remaining 3 scum during Night 2. I was the only viable protection target. Except for the doctor thought "they'll never hit him knowing I'll protect him" and protected some random townie. Mafia took the chance shooting me at night, and town ended up losing the game.
Basically protect your assets. Which SDM did.
Edit: just while I'm thinking about it, there was also quite a bit of totally incorrect setup speculation going on, about numbers of mafia, SK role, number of blues etc. It seemed to hurt town at some stages because there were incorrect assumptions. Never assume about the setup unless you know for sure.
It was okay in THIS game, because there were no townier townies.
I'm saying usually scum would avoid hitting just one of the masons (unless they have 2 KP to kill both or something), and if both masons are even approx. equally useful, there's no knowing which one will get hit.
I'd have thought that's pretty logical, but apparantly not...
Sounds logical, but bear in mind a few things:
1) Scum do not know at the time there is a protective role;
2) In my experience (I could cite countless examples) mafia will often go for high priority targets, even with the risk that they will be protected
3) If you're not protecting the obvious target, you're taking a stab in the dark guessing who the mafia WILL hit, and chances are you probably won't get a successful save off anyay.
4) The risk of losing Sharrant, someone you know to be townie AND useful, is too high to NOT protect him
But scum didn't shoot sharrant, so I was right!
h4h4h4
