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Newbie Mini Mafia XXVI - Page 2

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
September 09 2012 14:27 GMT
#742
So be it then. I won't be online for quite some time now, but I hope that the game still continues once I get back to the thread. I'm going to facepalm hard if Sonic Death Monkey flips town and we lynched him just because of a WIFOMy theory.

##Unvote
##Vote Sonic Death Monkey
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
September 10 2012 17:39 GMT
#783
Wow... I was expecting to open my phone and read the endgame post, but it looks like we even got a double kill. And the game is basically finished. At least if I could prove my alignment :/

If we ignore the end result, I still think it was stupid and a huge risk to lynch Sonic Death Monkey. The case against him was based entirely on connection theories and WIFOM, with little (if any) basis in filter analysis. Compared to KillingTime, Sonic Death Monkey's filter looked nowhere near as suspicious. Looks like at least kushm4sta agreed with my assessment:

On September 10 2012 02:50 kushm4sta wrote:
Do I agree with or even understand Jacobs case? No. But we needed consensus so rather than trying to convince him otherwise by making a case is my cell phone I just went with it lol


For some reason, though, it looks like my questioning of Jacob's play turned me into the top suspect. To that I have to ask: didn't kushm4sta have very similar doubts? And why wouldn't I have gladly bussed Sonic Death Monkey to gain town cred as Mafia? And why would I have then been pushing WeeTee/imcasey for so long? If you look at my posts yesterday, you see that I'm struggling with my reads and trying to find the best solution. KillingTime, on the other hand, doesn't apparently care about who gets lynched in the least.

It must have been unfortunate that the bandwagon formed on Sonic Death Monkey, but his exceedingly eager jump on Sonic Death Monkey could be a clever plot to gain some nice town cred. I, on the other hand, didn't even stop to think about town cred, but instead openly shared my doubts. It was clear at that point that there was no turning around the bandwagon, so I'd be a pretty bad Mafia to all-in and risk everything for just a bit faster victory.

Stutters695 is confirmed town, and kushm4sta and JacobStrangelove would have to be godly players to actually be Mafia. That leaves only KillingTime. I'm not sure what more I can do to affect the outcome, and I'm severely short ontime as well, but I'll try to answer any additional questions or accusations when I can.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
September 11 2012 03:47 GMT
#796
I'm not sure what I can do to convince you at this point, but you're making a big mistake. I don't have time right now to look at KillingTime's filter, but later I'm going to read it through and post why KillingTime has to be Mafia. I urge you to read both of our filters as well to determine which of us truly is Mafia. Relying on just a WIFOMy connection theory is such a stupid way to lose (although it somehow hit correctly yesterday). You should use it as maybe a piece of additional evidence, but not as the ultimate solution to everything. That's just plain lazy at best.

One more thing: the NK of Jacob doesn't look good for me, but remember, it's what everyone would expect if I actually was Mafia. If the NK had been, for example, kushm4sta or Stutters695, it could have caused a wave of second-guessing and all around uncertainty for KillingTime. This way everything looks neatly like I have to be the final Mafia. Who would benefit from that, me or KillingTime?

Please take a look at our filters if nothing else. I just don't have the time to post right now, but hopefully I can make a big case later on.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
September 11 2012 03:48 GMT
#797
##Vote KillingTime
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
September 13 2012 02:09 GMT
#806
GG Kind of lost my motivation to play at the end, but it was a fun road to the end. And I learned two important things from this (my last) newbie game:

A) Establishing your innocence as town consists of engaging actively in all of the discussion and only changing your own views if you have a good reason.
B) The worst mistake as Mafia is going into panic mode and starting to defend your teammate - never hesitate to bus unless you have no other choice.

The title of Most Valuable Player has to go to Jacob, although I still don't truly understand his reasoning for lynching Sonic Death Monkey But the end result is undeniable..

(I think I'm not going to play for a while, since it was a painful experience to see new developments in the discussion and not having the time to post - especially since as Mafia, I had to double-check all my posts for slips. My military service will end in January, though, and I guess our schedules will become more relaxed near to the end, so I'll see you all in normal Mafia games at least after a few months!)
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
September 13 2012 02:15 GMT
#807
LOL:

"Thus, my basic day one scum team kicker is:

## KillingTime, Cubu, Xatalos

Xatalos because he's in the military, and military dudes are suspicious ;P"
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
September 13 2012 10:25 GMT
#820
On September 13 2012 18:50 DarthPunk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 13 2012 18:19 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 13 2012 17:38 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Well it started as a feel read (just seemed what you were saying was a little off) and when I looked at you as if you were mafia everything in the thread made logical(or intuitive) sense. So it was intuition or a feel read that made me no longer confused. Cause up until that point I honestly didn't have much of a clue. However it clicked and made perfect sense.

Problem was I didn't have much time to explain it all logically (like 10 hours til lynch and I needed sleep) so after putting up some arguments and seeing I wasn't going far I just decided to force the vote. Honestly the thing that set it off was you saying imcasey was probably scum. When I realised that was true it helped because you wouldn't be in a scum team with the others but you would with him. Something along those lines... Also the way killing was acting helped.

I can't actually see the scum tell (lol) I might have seen it in game but I don't remember.


That's one of my problems with your read. I never said he was probably scum. And pointing out that your extreme confidence in your imcasey read was unjustified is something I would've done as town 100%.

I don't think there's anything in the thread that necessarily make me look super towni, but I don't see what makes me look scum. It's hard for me to look at my actions objectively though.


That's the problem though. When it came down to it There were only 4 townies in the game. and you did not make the top four whichever way you looked at it.

I recommend you all to read this if you have not already. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=362042

It was a bastardised version of this scum hunting strategy that got you.


Show nested quote +
Negative Elimination
This is kind of a bad name for the strategy, but basically you focus on making town-reads (which you largely keep to yourself). You defend them in the thread and focus on pressuring anyone you don't have a town read on, supporting their lynch and trying to gather info and increase your list of townreads. You use the process of elimination and townreads to pressure scum instead of scumreads.

Pros: townreads are easier to make than scumreads. focussing on defending good townies can keep them alive for later.
Cons: this makes you a bit hard to read. also, you need to constantly re-evaluate your townreads since scum could have you fooled. in games where townies are hard to find this goes very poorly.


I think going for the perfect victory caught up with you. And you were also over confident by the end judging by the Scum QT. If I were you I would have bussed one of your own HARD. Then you would have been in the position Jacob was in and could have lynched anyone of your choosing.


In hindsight, I agree. We should have bussed one of us hard and taken the easy win. However, I (we) got a bit overconfident and wanted to go for a flawless victory (I was also hesitant because our cover was starting to crack slowly but surely... would a bus be enough for the win?).
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
September 13 2012 12:26 GMT
#831
On September 13 2012 21:17 marvellosity wrote:
let me find something for you guys

edit: read the few posts starting from here. drazak all but claimed medic in-thread ^_^

further edit:
Show nested quote +
On September 05 2012 10:40 drazak wrote:
I'm saying from a medic's point of view, I wasn't sure about him myself. Obviously he WAS town, but he had a lot of town power which isn't always a good thing.


That one was the cutest. Hapa and I had big smiles talking about the passage sitting on IRC.


If you look at the MafiaQT, I also noticed that, but I had a hard time believing he actually Medic-slipped so obviously Maybe we should have killed him and prevented Stutters from becoming confirmed town, haha!
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
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