EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXIV - Page 7
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
GK/Darth: They never suspected each other once this game. This seems suspicious, especially after Thrawn mislynch. They state they arrived at similar reads on Thrawn, for different reasons, but as townies I would expect them to at least be suspicious of each other after Thrawn flipped town. But scums never attacking each other the whole game is not a common practice, and with my imagination acting up again, I tend to believe the alternate theory that they are both towns. The fact that they changed their reads based on Thrawn flipping town (especially me not being the top scum reads anymore) is consistent with the theory. I would have expected scum GK/Darth to continue to tunnel me, despite Thrawn lynch. Golbat: He is lynching for sure, but Jhyut being targeted should make him less scummy. This is because after GK outlined his case on Jhyut being the top scum read and Golbat being the second person we should lynch, I cannot imagine scum team including Golbat to NK the top scum read to make it dangerous for Golbat to be lynched. Solar: Solar seems scummy for sheeping GK to vote against Golbat. He readily says that he believes GK as town, and this is the reason for voting GK (though he rather vote for Obvious himself). While this makes sense based on GK's post asking for townie to follow the leader to choose the lynch candidate, the day just started. I would expect that town Solar to gather more evidence and understand the reasoning behind Golbat lynch, rather than so quickly trying to jump on the bandwagon against Golbat. This makes it seem that scum Solar just wants to mislynch one more townie for the win. And by association, I think if Solar is scum, Obvious is likely to be his scum partner based on Solar's publicly announced finding of Obvious scum YET voting for Golbat. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
I don't think it is bad to ask this question at this point. I don't think other power roles should claim, but I think this question would help the town. GK and Darth, are you guys mason brothers? | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Z-boson's suspect list went: me, Jhyut, Golbat Darth's suspect list: Golbat, Jhyut, Solar GK's suspect list: Golbat, Jhyut, Obvious Maybe WIFOM. But to me, I still can't get my head around scum Golbat lynching town Jhyut, who seemed to be scum Golbat's only way out. Regards to no lynching, the only caveat for choosing to lynch today rather than tomorrow is the medic save. But if we decide to go ahead with our lynch today, I think claiming today is a good idea. We NEED a scum lynch today. And everyone claiming would make that much easier. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
However, I am still convinced that claiming could help the town. In two of my last three games, we decided to mass claim toward the end of the game. Of course it helps the scum to decide how to use their actions, but it also helps the town to find the scum. I will think about this more. And I don't think it is something that we should ignore. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On August 17 2012 08:09 Golbat wrote: If one player comes up town, that never makes another player scum 100%. Unless you have some inside info, you just pulled this thought out of your ass. Either way, Archrun is on my radar now because townies should never be thinking like that. My vote stands on thrawn, but Archrun is gonna have some 'splaining to do. He seems to be sheeping my read on Archrun. He ends up voting for Archrun, but scum Golbat could be setting up for Archrun lynch the following day based on my read. If Archrun flips town - he could simply blame me for it. I see scum motivations to prepare lynches in Thrawn, then Archrun, then me. On August 18 2012 15:32 Golbat wrote: I agree i'm lurking, but I feel that I have at least contributed well for my sparse filter. I made my case on thrawn, and cast my vote. When I see something worth discussing I mention it. I may not be living in the thread as hard as you, harry or thrawn, but at least I've contributed. What do you suggest I do to be less "lurky"? Make a shit case on someone in a misguided attempt to look active? Last game it got me lynched and cost town a vigi shot. I'll go over the thread again and see if anything catches my eye, but I don't really see a case I can make that hasn't already been made ATM. At the very least i'll prod some people in my next couple posts. This is clearly an excuse and false. There are plenty of things to discuss at the moment, and continues to lurk today. He did not make a single night post after Thrawn flipped town. And as it has been pointed out, he places his vote on Thrawn early in the day, then decides to lurk throughout. Day 2's lynch was going to be clearly me or Thrawn, so I can interpret Golbat's being absent as scum not caring between Thrawn or my lynch. On August 18 2012 16:57 Golbat wrote: I'd like to point out that if thrawn does not flip red, that does not make yourharry equally not red. Due to plurality lynch, my vote can stay where it is without fear of a no-lynch, but I will shed no tears if the rest of the town thinks that harry is scummier. A scum kill is a scum kill after all. The bolded part, at first, read somewhat town to me. Scum Golbat would have known that Thrawn would flip blue, so he is OK with giving me the town read following his mislynch. But maybe it would have been too inconsistent for Golbat to continue attacking me despite Thrawn flipping scum, especially since he initially sheeped the case that was based on Thrawn/Harry/Obvious association scum tells. On August 19 2012 07:30 Golbat wrote: You could probably assume that I didn't pay close attention to the first 24hours of the game. Because I didn't. I had forgotten I even signed up until like halfway through Day1. Why are YOU trying to make it sound like I have no clue what's going on at all? I know exactly what to make of that. I am not sure what he is trying to say here. "I know exactly what to make of that." Golbat, what do you mean by this? One thing I noticed is that while he sheep GK and Darth's case on me and Thrawn being scum, he never really mentions Obvious. These cases clearly outlines evidence for Thrawn/me/Ochrow being scums together by association and defending each other, he simply ignores Obvious. If there was one person beside me and Thrawn that had a chance of getting lynched, it was Obvious. It is suspicious to me what reasons town Golbat had to selectively not suspect Obvious. Upon re-examination of Golbat's filter, while I don't see clear scum slips, I find scum motivations in many of his actions. In particular, what stands out is Golbat conveniently leaving out Obvious from his suspicion list without apparent reason, even though he said I was suspicious for defending Thrawn (who Golbat strongly believed to be scum). While I am not quite sure about my read at this point, he does generally seem scummy. I would like Golbat to respond to these points above. And to pressure him: ##Vote Golbat | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Currently we are on Day 3. We have 5 town players and 3 scum players. There has been only one blue roles. I believe there are more blue roles, e.g. detective, medic, roleblocker, or jailer. Maybe even two. Scums will probably go after detective/medic type blue roles, rather than mason buddies. Mason buddies don't have special powers at night, but they are confirmed town. Their claiming would be super helpful for town to narrow the pool to choose the scum from. But this information at this point in time will not be that useful for scums, since scums want to go after other power roles. True, this will also allow the scums to narrow the pool to choose other power roles from - but I believe at this point, it is a risk we need to take. Possible issue: how do we know to believe the mason brother claim? I guess we need to do the analysis. It really depends on which two players claim masons. I will examine the past days' actions of the two players who claim mason brothers to see if they are consistent with their alignments. But getting this over with will help my scum hunting ability, as I am having creative thoughts again... | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On August 21 2012 17:59 goodkarma wrote: -First, YourHarry is fond of withholding information from us. YourHarry starts the game by making a weak WIFOM case on me, claiming if I'm not a mason I'm scum. He withholds his read on me for a long time until pressured to provide it, and while here maybe you could argue he had some justification, this is a recurring theme. Over and over again he's done this. With this "mason case," with vote swapping history, with providing reads on certain people (most recently, Golbat). This behavior is clearly anti-town. Obviously withholding information would be advantageous for scum as it could make it harder for others to get a good read on him. Could a townie also do this? Maybe, but this is just the tip of the iceberg. GK says that I am fond of withholding information. To restate GK's case in a more organized manner, it's this: GK admits that Harry may have had "maybe" acceptable reasoning for suspecting GK, but Harry has been withholding information, continuing to change his reads and swapping his votes through-out the game. This behavior is anti-town. And withholding information is advantageous for scums. (This is not a misrepresentation of GK's case. I wanted to organize the contents of his post, so it's easier to analyze) You may disagree with the reasoning for changing my reads, but not with the frequency with which I changed my reads. As I incorporate more information and re-analyze previous posts, I AM GOING to change reads, and therefore my votes. I have been wrong in my reads this game, but being wrong does not mean I am scum. To be fair, GK does say that I am scummy because I base many of my cases on WIFOM. So if you think that my reasoning for my reads generally have been poor, wait a minute as I will address that soon. But GK's particular point above regarding my changing of reads, has no substance. Do scums change their reads and swap their votes more often than town? If you think so, I would argue that such belief is a common mis-perception. Scums want to survive. They want to avoid attention. They don't have to change their reads, if they think such change will buy much suspicion. At best, it is WIFOM. People's reads change. And mine changed frequently (Also see my previous games, which links have been provided for. I am not saying that my changing my reads means I am town, just because I have done so in the past. But it should be taken as a proof that changing reads does not mean that Harry is scum). You can argue that maybe I am trying to match my town meta as scum. But as town, I may inadvertently match my town meta from previous games. So aside from paranoia, this cannot be used to say I am scum for trying to match my previous town meta. GK's second point: withholding information is advantageous for scums. This is wrong. Some information should be revealed, but some should not be. For example, a detective's investigation on a confirmed town or a confirmed scum would be advantageous for town if detective can somehow share such information without claiming. This is because scums already know who towns and scums are, so no additional is gained from scums' perspectives. But townies can use such information to limit and focus on which players to lynch. But should a mason, in the beginning of the day, claim mason and reveal identity of his mason brother? Some information help town more than scums. Let's suppose that I was right about Solar and GK being mason brothers. Would it have been advantageous for town for me to reveal this information? No. The information I thought I had was going to benefit the scums more than the town. And because of that, I decided to not share the information I thought I had despite being repeatedly being accused for not sharing it. My stubbornness was based on my thinking that I was correct in knowing the mason alignment. It should be noted that it was only after it became apparent that Solar and GK were not mason brothers, that I decided to reveal this information, since this information was no longer useful to scums. Related case against me previously brought up: it has been talked about whether scum Harry would have had an easier time identifying mason alignment than town Harry. It is true that scums have more information, and in general I would agree that scum Harry would have had an easier time. However, the style and the choice of words used by GK in his defense of Solar resulted in town Harry to deduce mason alignment. The explanation for this has been described a couple of times, but I can try to explain myself more clearly upon request. And maybe the question should be asked: what is scum Harry's motivation behind instantly dismissing case against Solar in such an awkward and suspicious manner? Even if scum Harry wanted to defend scum Solar, would scum Harry have done it in such a ridiculous fashion? No. However, such action does make sense if town Harry belief that GK and Solar are mason buddies. I think whether I am town or scum, it is reasonable to be aware that such sudden change in suspicion would have looked scummy. Again, if you agree that scums want to avoid suspicion more than townies, then Harry's decision to express his read on Solar because Harry really thought Solar was town would make sense. Weak deduction? Maybe. Reading too much into the wording and the style in which GK defended Solar? Maybe. Scum motivation? No. This is just the tip, GK says. But I feel that I have defended against this tip of the iceberg. If there is any remaining suspicion, please address it. My change in voting pattern was based on my changing reads as I continued my analysis. And even GK admits some of them have acceptable reasoning behind them. And definitely, my decision to withhold the mason alignment information was pro-town. On August 21 2012 17:59 goodkarma wrote: -YourHarry is a fan of last-minute vote swapping. He has now twice last minute switched his vote to secure the mislynch of the top candidate. This behavior simply can't be ignored anymore. There is clear scum motivation here. -The use of WIFOM first, actual use of reasoning when pressured later. He already did that today with Golbat. He started today with soft defending him, and then decides he will actually "read his filter." I'll say that again: only after defending Golbat with WIFOM does he decide it's a good idea to read his filter. Then, finally, he decides to actually present a case which is in fact against Golbat. In other words, he's demonstrated a lack of interest in actually contributing meaningfully to scumhunting. -On top of this, today he has focused a large degree of effort on getting people to role claim. If my theory on scum's motive for the night kills is to be believed, YourHarry is trying to draw important town roles out of hiding as easy scum targets. There's loads of scum motivation to be seen behind YourHarry's actions, and there are several cases that have already been made against him. Yet somehow he seems to have avoided getting lynched. My biggest issue with lynching him, and why he hasn't been higher on my "scum reads," has been that his play is consistently bad, and it would be easy to mislynch a town YourHarry. But if you look at his actions, they fit a scum agenda. Fan of last minute vote swapping. Definitely guilty of that. On day 1: 1) I had my vote on Shady. Was a choice between Thrawn and Shady. 2) I changed my vote to Archrun, who I felt confident about turning scum. 3) It was apparent that Archrun lynch was not going to happen. So I changed my vote to Shady, who I preferred over Thrawn. Swapped my votes, I did. BUT: What is scum motivation here?? Did Shady not flip town? Did Archrun not flip town? Did Thrawn not flip town? If Thrawn flipped scum, I may have to come up with some defense outlining why I thought Thrawn was town over Shady or why I thought Archrun was scum. BTW, I did this already, especially at one point when I was convinced Thrawn was scum. But what scum motivations even exist for scum Harry to choose town Archurn lynch over town Thrawn lynch? Or town Shady lynch over town Thrawn lynch? I would argue that above course of events, if anything, indicates that I am NOT scum. If scum was trying to save his scum partner, such changing vote could be scum motivated? Oh wait, I must have forgotten about the possibility that scum Harry just felt like goofing around for the heck of it. I cannot even begin to understand why my switching my votes can be interpreted as scum motivated. My reads change. I explained my reasons. If you disagree with my reasons, argue why you reasons sucked, but don't say that my change of vote was scum motivated. My WIFOM first, logical reasons later What can I say. When I read posts... when I see night kills... I try to analyze. And GK, you will say again and again and again my analysis is WIFOM. But technically, everything is. Scums tend to lurk. WIFOM, some townies lurk too! And scums can try not to lurk. Scums tend to be wishy washy. WIFOM! Some townies are unsure of their reads so they are wishy washy. Some scums will outline focused case and show commitment. Scums tend to want to avoid suspicion? They tend to have bad logic? All WIFOM!! But these are basically how we are taught to scum hunt. To be fair, I guess the key phrase is "tend to". Scums do tend to lurk overall, Scums do tend to be wishy washy, sheep easy cases and often have bad logic. But for these very same reasons, my analysis is no more WIFOM than the other cases you have presented before. Will scum Thrawn have killed Archurn? Possibly, but scums tend not to target the easy lynch - especially if such lynch will make the scum suspicious. Would scum Golbat decide to NK Jhyut? Maybe, but scums again tend to spare townies who have high chance of getting mislynched. [b]My attempt to role hunt/b] First, I agree with Darth's retraction for asking people to role claim. Blues should claim upon their discretion. I guess it was my mistake in thinking that role claims could help the town more than it could scum. Since we have to get today lynch correct, gathering as much information as possible could help us reduce the pool from which we need to draw the scum from. But I blue roles have more information than vanilla, so it should be up to their discretion. I acknowledge my mistake here. In regards to Stutter's claim that I was trying to role hunt throughout the whole game. Stutter, if you think my line of thinking that Gk and Solar are masons and making that public only after we found out that my theory was wrong... I explain this above. You cannot argue that there is scum motivation. Or if you are thinking about Thrawn's case... do you think it was Harry's scum agenda was to role hunt and suspect the blue breadcrumb in Thrawn and kill him? Yes, it makes perfect sense. I may have wondered about different roles, but there is no scum motivation here. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Or if you are thinking about Thrawn's case... do you think it was Harry's scum agenda was to role hunt and suspect the blue breadcrumb in Thrawn and not kill him? Yes, it makes perfect sense. I may have wondered about different roles, but there is no scum motivation here. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On August 15 2012 12:17 goodkarma wrote: @Solarsail: Sigh... I really hope this entire day doesn't revolve around you because you got off to a bad start. I feel it's more likely you're an overaggressive townie right now. Seeing as how this is your first game I would recommend you take a look at prior games and how people present "cases" on other people. Try to show us why you feel someone is scummy rather than blindly accusing people. The last thing I want is for us to waste an entire day getting a bad townie lynched. Yes, I brought this up again. But I ask you guys for the last time to re-examine this: 1. GK and Solar do not have any prior history of playing mafia. 2. GK does NOT provide any reasons for thinking that Solar is a town. 3. GK style and choice of words indicates that GK, for some reason, is sure about something he should have very little information about. If you disagree with me, that's fine. Consider it a null tell. But there is more: Poor logic, beyond the reasonable standard, to make a case against me The cases he outlined against me are logically poor. Townies can be poor in their logic, but the extent with which he strongly pushes his case against me tells me that he is forcing this case. In particular, the lack of the basis for thinking that my vote swapping is scum motivated is unjustifiable in even with my active imagination. Also, he fails (or chooses not to) examine what scum motivations I could have had by swapping of my votes from Shady to Archeron, or from Archeron to Shady on Day 1... or from Thrawn to Jhyut on Day 2. But this would make sense if discussion of such consideration would irreversibly weaken his case against me. Thus, GK's case against me seems scum motivated. GK's focus to maintain his meta, and avoids making the commitment to make a difference in town lynch result He maintains that he should vote for whoever the townie believes is most likely scum. He says that in Day 1 and tries really hard to not deviate from this meta. On Day 2, he initially votes for Thrawn and then changes his reads outlines that he prefers 1) Ochrow/Obvious 2) YourHarry 3) Thrawn. Then he votes for Obvious. Near the deadline, it is apparent that Obvious is NOT going to be lynched. And this is after GK says he is "satisfied" with Thrawn's defense and participation. Town GK upon realizing that Obvious is not going to be lynched, and should have pushed for his second scum read in YourHarry. But even when it seems apparent that Thrawn is going to be lynched, he justifies not moving his vote from Obvious to YourHarry - with this: On August 20 2012 08:57 goodkarma wrote: Of my three scum suspects, I feel Thrawn is the worst lynch choice as his claim is semi-confirmable. Apparently many of you don't think that. Since one of the three is almost guaranteed to be lynched right now, I will stand by my current vote for the time being. Obviously, a townie should strive complete the action that he thinks would be best for town. Solely going after his said top scum candidate when it is clear that he is not going to be lynched is not town. If all townies independently voted for whoever he thought was most scummy, then scums's tendency to vote with their scum team will GREATLY DISADVANTAGEOUS for town. Thus, he seems scummy for trying hard to not break his Day 1 meta, despite his action being anti town. In addition, such action seems scum motivated to avoid any suspicion for being directly responsible for Thrawn's lynch. To be accurate, GK does say that Thrawn mislynch is partially his fault. But his lack of commitment in trying to make a difference in the result of the scum hunting seems scum motivated. And GK also says that Thrawn lynch is "OK" because he is probably scum. But I cannot accept this as an excuse to not follow through with what he should have deemed to be the best course of action for town. His main reason for switching his suspicion The only reason he switched his vote is what? Because I brought up the possibility of mass claiming. Seriously?? First, in my experience, claiming at LYLO or MYLO is a common pro-town strategy. I guess there could be some exceptions to this and I could be wrong... But to take this as the driving reason for his switch - because I brought up the possibility of mass claiming (and mass claiming after voting for no lynch tomorrow) - is just unimaginable. Again, this is consistent GK's scum agenda to force a case against me by brute force. ##Unvote ##Vote GK | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Z-boson, I am just trying to confuse town? To match my meta? That's your ONLY reasoning why you think I am scum. If you do not understand my case, point out which of my posts or actions do not make sense. I will gladly explain them for you. But to cite such weak reason to vote me at this stage of the game, I can only think that your action is based on paranoia or scum motivated. FOS Z-boson | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Stutter wrote: Again he posts another case that relys on what should be unknown information for the case to hold any water. This isn't scumhunting. This is posting a bunch of What Ifs to make it look like it's useful. So what happens to this case now that Thrawn has flipped Vig. It's completely worthless, just another post of YH looking active without contributing. Let me ask the town something. What does town Harry contribute with this post unless he's guessed correctly? Is it really a stretch to assume that Harry knew Thrawn would flip town so he could get out of contributing once again? Likewise with the previous post, he implied that if Thrawn is town Archrun must be scum. If he doesn't know that Thrawn is town neither of these plans make any sense. Once or twice I can overlook and just say that even trying to explain it with WIFOM is pointless but between everything I've went over so far I'd consider this more icing on the cake. Indeed, scum hunting by association is risky and it turned out that after Thrawn flipped town, my analysis became useless. But if we were to accept your reasoning, you should also find GK and Darth suspicious for their scum hunting by association. Also, the similar manner in which Ochrow and Thrawn have been posting their reads had been mentioned several times by multiple players, which became the reason for Ochrow being one of the top suspect along with Thrawn. And these analyses also lost their usefulness upon Thrawn flipping town. But these things happen. Especially with few players left, once you begin to feel confident about a player's scum read, it is natural to think about what scums by association. In regards to your other cases, I think I sufficiently explained myself in my response against GK's case. Also, but for the same reason you found me suspicious for making analysis that I knew was going to turn out useless, you didn't find GK suspicious? Darth? | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Please let me know what you think. I also would like to know what Obvious currently thinks about GK being scum. I don't think I will have much time to post tomorrow. But I will try to log in. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
[b]##Vote Solarsail[/b[ | ||
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