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On August 20 2012 19:39 goodkarma wrote:
@Darthpunk:
There is some meaningful discussion posted by Obvious on this page. But one post isn't enough for me to take him off my scum radar.
And as far as lurkers go:
Would you be willing to take the hardline stance of pressuring lurkers? And if they refuse to cooperate, lynching them?
You may not like it. Honestly I don't either. But if you say, "Hey everyone. You should be ashamed of being inactive." There's no personal accountability in that message, and you can expect there will be no meaningful change in activity day 3.
There are several lurkers right now, to the point where I strongly suspect we have inactive lurker scum in this game. The best way to get them, and any potential townie lurkers, active is to pressure them. The easiest way to pressure them is to vote them if they refuse to help us scumhunt.
If you see other options, I'd be happy to hear them.
But how I see it right now, I have no clear scum reads amongst the current active players, and amongst the lurkers is the only spot left to really look.
Yeah I was already planning to do something similar. At this point if all the lurkers are town. Then they have handed scum the game regardless.
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I was roleblocked again. And I don't understand the jhuyt NK at all. I was expecting either myself or goodkarma to get shot. I am guessing it was to try and confuse us.
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On August 21 2012 13:24 YourHarry wrote:
Good point on scums not having time to respond to your latest post. But there were common suspicions between Golbat and Jhyut that were posted hours before deadline:
Z-boson's suspect list went: me, Jhyut, Golbat
Darth's suspect list: Golbat, Jhyut, Solar
GK's suspect list: Golbat, Jhyut, Obvious
Maybe WIFOM. But to me, I still can't get my head around scum Golbat lynching town Jhyut, who seemed to be scum Golbat's only way out.
Regards to no lynching, the only caveat for choosing to lynch today rather than tomorrow is the medic save. But if we decide to go ahead with our lynch today, I think claiming today is a good idea. We NEED a scum lynch today. And everyone claiming would make that much easier.
Sorry I am kind of busy and am not following the thread right now. but I agree with a mass claim. we are at the stage of the game where we need as much info as possible because we cannot afford a mistake. I feel really out of my depth here, scum are either afk winning or playing really well.
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Golbat did not post during the night cycle. and his last post was 2 days ago. will golbat be modkilled or replaced?
To be honest I am feeling pretty demoralised about this entire situation. This game is incredibly difficult with the amount of lurking/ inactivity that has gone on. Not to mention losing 5 townies in the first 2 cycles. I am not sure if lurkers are even the right place to look at this point.
I am going to sound out my thoughts on the page and be transparent as possible. At this point denying information to the mafia is less important than revealing Information to the last 5 townies. I know you guys are reading this I just wish I knew who you were.
I have a strong town read on Goodkarma, but even with him/her I am not sure. I can see GK being scum. and if so I both applaud you and say WTF?!?! to the rest of town for being so shit.
Z-boson has appeared town like and active but has just sheeped cases and not been proactive in pushing them. Pretty much a neutral read.
Your Harry has been mental all game. Impossible to make out his motivations he is bad town (which is his meta) but this allows him to hide beneath this if he actually was scum. I read through XXI and I thought he was scum in that game. I was wrong, but this at least gives me something to think on.
Everyone was pushing the Obvious/ Your Harry/ Thrawn train. Too easy. Something was wrong. I had a lingering doubt in the back of my mind but I did not argue against the Thrawn lynch at all because he was so scummy in my eyes.
At this point I have no clear reads and anyone could be scum which doesn't help at all.
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OK here is what I am going to do. I am going to read the entire thread. AND everyones filters. and take notes. there has to be something there that can solve this incredible puzzle. This will atke a while so expect no cases until the second part of day 2. I will be keeping up with the thread until that time and will continue to add to the discussion.
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I think this may have got lost in the mess.
Golbat did not post during the night cycle. and his last post was 2 days ago. will golbat be modkilled or replaced?
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On August 21 2012 22:45 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2012 22:41 DarthPunk wrote:
I think this may have got lost in the mess.
Golbat did not post during the night cycle. and his last post was 2 days ago. will golbat be modkilled or replaced?
No. He will be modkilled at the end of day 3 if he has not posted/voted. No more replacements at this stage.
OK, thanks.
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I have reconsidered and am now FIRMLY AGAINST a role claim. I am still reading filters and trying to find something. But I want everyone to look closely at those who have sheeped cases and not actually scum hunted whilst appearing to be pro town. I think that is where we can find scum.
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It is not up to me If our blues wish to claim or not. I am not in their shoes nor do I have the info they have. If they wish to not claim there is obviously a good reason for that. The only purpose it would serve is allowing scum to better target their night kills. It is not up to me or Your Harry to decide whether people should claim. It is at the discretion of those with a power role. At the time I was
confused and demoralised. However I am back with a clear mind, and I realised this was a stupid idea. I am going to trust my reads and build my cases and catch those scum.
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Guys if Golbat is town we are at LYLO so the only difference is that we can't vote for a no lynch.
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On August 22 2012 11:09 Obvious.660 wrote:
Well. I went through the people who I felt most strongly were town to the least town and I came up with this list by process of elimination. As already stated, the lurking is killing this town. We're past 24 hours of today's day portion of the cycle and still haven't heard much from quite a few people. Golbat is on his way to a modkill. YourHarry is presumably making his case since he checked in a little while ago but it has been some time and we have heard nothing yet.
In no particular order:
YourHarry
Z-Boson
Stutters
Golbat
At this point I don't even think it can hurt me to speculate that there is only 1 hyper-active scum in this game. I speculate Golbat is going down quietly as scum. So far the only person I think I saw mentioned to be defending Golbat was Thrawn, who is now dead? If anyone else remember people defending Golbat and wants to chime in that would be great. So essentially I have a coin-flip between Stutters and Z-Boson from my POV, based on process of elimination of who I get the feeling is town and who is not.
What is your view on Solar?
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On August 22 2012 11:37 Obvious.660 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 22 2012 11:30 DarthPunk wrote:On August 22 2012 11:09 Obvious.660 wrote:
Well. I went through the people who I felt most strongly were town to the least town and I came up with this list by process of elimination. As already stated, the lurking is killing this town. We're past 24 hours of today's day portion of the cycle and still haven't heard much from quite a few people. Golbat is on his way to a modkill. YourHarry is presumably making his case since he checked in a little while ago but it has been some time and we have heard nothing yet.
In no particular order:
YourHarry
Z-Boson
Stutters
Golbat
At this point I don't even think it can hurt me to speculate that there is only 1 hyper-active scum in this game. I speculate Golbat is going down quietly as scum. So far the only person I think I saw mentioned to be defending Golbat was Thrawn, who is now dead? If anyone else remember people defending Golbat and wants to chime in that would be great. So essentially I have a coin-flip between Stutters and Z-Boson from my POV, based on process of elimination of who I get the feeling is town and who is not. What is your view on Solar? On the phone right now, just got a call, I'll take a second look after I'm done. Is he one of your suspects or are you confused as to why he didn't make my short list?
I am about to post a case on him. would like your thoughts.
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SOLARSAIL
We all know the dramatic shift in his behaviour and the quality of his posting on day one. He was acting strangely and was called out day one after which his posting became highly erratic and panicked. The next day there was a SUDDEN AND SIGNIFICANT turn around in his posting behaviour. He says that his day one behaviour was intentional and that was generally accepted by the people in order to pursue cases on the more obvious suspects. (thrawn, shady, harry etc) and since that point has done ZERO SCUMHUNTING and FLOWN UNDER THE RADAR. He has only commented on the most popular candidates and only when they were the flavour of the moment.
Day one he votes for shady after he is by far the most popular vote candidate.
But his explanation is very weak and he brought nothing of substance to the table.
On August 17 2012 01:53 Solarsail wrote:
On Shady:
I was never completely satisfied by his explanation of jumping on me second post to stimulate discussion, nor persisting with it. The encouragement of baseless voting is another strike there for me. None of his suspicions have had sufficient evidence for
##Vote Shady Sands
Can't shake the feeling that Thrawn has set Shady up as his own worst enemy and Shady is just playing very badly to fall in. DarthPunk is my strongest Town read this far and he is saying the opposite. But I have had so many problems with Shady this game, and while Thrawn is not off my radar I can't ignore this.
On August 17 2012 01:53 Solarsail wrote:
On Shady:
I was never completely satisfied by his explanation of jumping on me second post to stimulate discussion, nor persisting with it. The encouragement of baseless voting is another strike there for me. None of his suspicions have had sufficient evidence for
##Vote Shady Sands
Can't shake the feeling that Thrawn has set Shady up as his own worst enemy and Shady is just playing very badly to fall in. DarthPunk is my strongest Town read this far and he is saying the opposite. But I have had so many problems with Shady this game, and while Thrawn is not off my radar I can't ignore this.
He even expresses doubt over this vote, and the reasoning behind his doubt is far better than the justification behind his vote. He is taking the safe choice. Joining a bandwagon with little to no case. He has not participated in scum hunting at all day one.
His filter mainly consists of small comments on the interplay between others, it looks as if he is a participant in the discussion but is not contributing.
On August 17 2012 01:58 Solarsail wrote:
Sorry I missed DP's new post.
That is very strong. I would like to see Thrawn defend that.
Now that DP's argument is there in full with evidence, the line "mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not?" is really, really out of place.
On August 17 2012 08:07 Solarsail wrote:
Archrun didn't mention the possibility that they are both town and just got trapped fighting each other.
Golbat your explanation better follow very, very quickly.
Day 2 opens and he immediately sheeps the most popular lynch candidate. (thrawn) that myself and shady have made a case on.
On August 18 2012 10:28 Solarsail wrote:
The Archrun death completely validates gk's post. I was already wavering on Thrawn yesterday early on and Ochrow's most recent post (before GK even said anything)
I'm less convinced on YourHarry since there is no direct link and I had a soft town read from yesterday, but there's two good candidates right there.
Lol Thrawn your vigilante claim is ridiculous. Vigilantes do not reveal that they are vigilantes over such a trivial matter as defending themselves, as the role is so powerful that scum have no choice but to kill you immediately.
##Vote: Thrawn
##FoS: Ochrow
No scum hunting. No participation or addition to the discussion. He is sheeping myself and GK with a short justification for his vote.
On August 20 2012 06:44 Solarsail wrote:
My current vote, thrawn. He did a very poor job of defending himself initially with the WIFOM and the claim (which if real is both highly convenient and misplaced), but then he's improved by responding to more accusations. I know 'lack of reading' is a general accusation against him but D1 I thought he was responding quite well, in full and with evidence, to all questions asked. So I would say it's just a D2 behaviour to be missing things a little.
I agree with much of gk's posting minus the initial shared QT accusation because that is unlikely to have produced the coincidental posts with the same agenda. The lying to us, lurking, nonaggression and general avoidance of Ochrow/Obvious stands out a lot more (oh and the OMGUS vote) and YH has demonstrated some serious read errors and flip flops if he is indeed town. So my case against Thrawn is mostly by association with YH and Ochrow than directly. I will keep my vote on him because it is a combined one from gk's case and thrawn's individual behaviour. However /unlike/ GK I will not switch around as people's defences go up and down with each post. I will be around at the deadline but I don't plan to switch.
The lurkers simply have not posted enough to make any case as strong as vs Thrawn or vs Obvious so I can't justify voting for them instead of those two. This is possibly by design; if so they are lucky that D1 was intense and D2 was focused on a single case to avoid attention.
Elaborates on his thrawn vote. Does not scum hunt and justifies his vote by sheeping GK. Note that despite really weak justification he states that: I will be around at the deadline but I don't plan to switch. this is not a pro-town. Despite the large discussion on thrawn/ your harry throughout the day does not comment again.
He has not added anything original yet to the thread.
On August 20 2012 08:06 Solarsail wrote:
gk, I want to make clear: my read on thrawn stands on its own. I am prepared to lynch Ochrow for being my strongest read but only if it goes through, because thrawn/YH/ochrow are so close in verbal support that if we have in fact made a mistake like one of the three isn't mafia then the mafia members we could easily see a switch close to deadline.
When questioned by GK he then says his thrawn read 'stands on its own' despite adding nothing to the case and purely sheeping others opinions.
More side comments, not scumhunting but seeming to participate.
On August 20 2012 08:19 Solarsail wrote:Show nested quote +On August 20 2012 08:17 YourHarry wrote:On August 20 2012 08:09 Solarsail wrote:
I am having second thoughts about Thrawn.
What a surprise. Scum YH has a good motivation for this: be accused as one of the three, bus Thrawn to save yourself when the case against you looks strong, and backtrack on that close to deadline when he's about to be lynched and people are talking about switching. That is not the reason for my switch, but I understand your suspicion. I can't move my vote for now because if I do, I will be lynched. You can move your vote with an even stronger case on someone else. I encourage you to do so because your initial vote against Thrawn wasn't with much evidence.
On August 20 2012 08:31 Solarsail wrote:Justification?
Asking your harry, Who although scummy has provided far more analysis and justification for his positions is kind of a stretch but reinforces that he is trying to participate without actually finding scum
His last vote.
On August 21 2012 09:30 Solarsail wrote:
We're not going to realistically win this game without three good mafia lynches. Being decisive is exactly what is needed, so we need a leader and gk has stepped up. If this devolves into eight lynch candidates we have poor odds of picking the right one even if our accusations of certain behaviours are correct.
So it's really just a question of your read on gk. If you think he's town, vote for Golbat. If you think he's not, vote for GK. If GK and DP are mafia then wp because they've been nothing but active and helpful (and terribly wrong yesterday).
I haven't done nearly enough independent work, and it's hurt me because I've been taken in by bad logic following others, but ultimately it's a lesson learned. I don't even think Golbat is the greatest lynch candidate ever because lurking is a often a null tell but I'm seeing that it's come down to the choice I said. I'd go with Obvious myself but I don't even trust any reads I have after D1 and D2.
##Vote: Golbat
Sheeping GK on the popular choice once again. not actually scum hunting. Playing safe and flying under the radar.
SOLAR SAIL IS SCUM AND MUST BE LYNCHED.
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On August 22 2012 14:59 Obvious.660 wrote:
Do I count as sheeping if I posted my case on him before you posted yours even though you asked? Semi-joking.
Not sure what to make of the Golbat situation but he's voting for Solarsail as well. Hard to speculate as to why, best guess is that it's because it was the most recent case posted. If we lynch correctly today and he's not NK'd hopefully he participates tomorrow.
No. Sorry I took so long to post. I am in the middle of a messy breakup right now and my Ex came over, so that kind of took precedence.
I think it is pretty obvious that solar is scum from looking at his filter. Too careful. Always sheeping the popular lynch. never contributing to scum hunting. The nail in the coffin is that he had not been mentioned as a scum candidate since day 1 but if you look through his filter it is clear he is not contributing.
As to Golbat sort of wish he had just got himself mod-killed, but i don't really want to lynch him yet. he could just be an inactive townie.
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On August 22 2012 16:41 YourHarry wrote:
Darth, while I agree that sheeping other cases and trying to get get by without getting noticed is scum and in this regard Solar is scummy, I have a much stronger scum read on GK.
Please let me know what you think.
I also would like to know what Obvious currently thinks about GK being scum.
I don't think I will have much time to post tomorrow. But I will try to log in.
Goodkarma is my strongest town read. I see the points that you make in your case and I can see where you are coming from but I believe you to be on the wrong track. I find it incredible that your top scum read is one of the most proactive townies in the game.
also because I missed it
##vote: Solarsail
I look forward to solar's defense.
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I find it interesting that this is the first time that your harry has not sheeped the case of his opponent all game. In fact this is the first time in the game that your harry has even made an original case. It happens to be on one of the most proactive townies also. seems odd.
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By opponent, I mean the other leading lynch candidate. Even after expressing countless times his inexplicable town read on Thrawn, He voted for him almost immediately after he became a lynch candidate. That being said I am positive solar sail is scum and I ask all of you to lynch him tonight!
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On August 22 2012 21:15 goodkarma wrote:
@DarthPunk:
Have your other scum reads changed since you reassessed everyone's filters? And why is SolarSail stronger than your other scum reads?
I would agree that SolarSail hasn't stuck his neck out at all. But this is MYLO, and from what I've seen there are also townies in this category. What about SolarSail, specifically, makes him a "best read" from this category?
At this point I needed to alter my scum hunting from finding those that seems scummy due to logical inconsistency's or bad and confusing arguments, because it has gotten us nowhere so far. Scum this game seem to be blending in and Solarsail was the most flagrant example of this. He has also not been mentioned or involved much at all and has played very carefully since his early game behaviour which he came out and said was an act. It could be an act. or it could have been coaching from his scum buddies which caused him to dramatically alter his posting.
Something else which caused some concern was this.
On August 20 2012 09:31 Solarsail wrote:
..............................
..............................
@self
1. Make your own reads, not those of others
2. Don't trust your own reads, ever
3. Wow you're a terrible player
I mean just look at this post, first thing that is apparent is the apologetic nature of it and the fact that he states he is such a bad player. He was not under suspicion but it seems even with that being the case he is trying to make excuses for his play.
He says to never trust his own reads, Yet he has not made any. He says not to sheep cases then sheeps the case of GK immediately afterwards.
He is scum and needs to die.
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On August 22 2012 22:28 goodkarma wrote:
@DarthPunk:
Also note that with three scum left and three on each of our candidates, there is at least one scum behind at least one of our candidates. So I feel it's very likely at this point that not both of us are right.
So are you so certain that SolarSail is guilty that you could visualize YourHarry being innocent?
I see scum motivation behind YourHarry's actions, but I'm having trouble seeing any behind Solar's. Being sheepish and lurky are definitely suspicious traits, but they're not inherantly scummy ones. Unless you truly believe all three scum are lurkers (which honestly might be possible at this point), I still see YourHarry as the better candidate.
Add to that how suspicious I still am of Golbat and Obvious, and I'm skeptical about getting behind SolarSail right now.
I think solar and harry are both scum.
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On August 22 2012 22:41 goodkarma wrote:
@DarthPunk:
So you think scum is busing one of their own?
Yes I think they are forced too at this point. I think that one of them is Bussing. Solarsail is scum and voting golbat. so I view him as town. I think obvious is town also as he was so quick to drop the Golbat lynch after looking into solar's filter. I think a scum obvious would have tried slightly harder to go for the easy mislynch. That leaves either Stutters or Z-boson as scum bussing YH.
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EPT
