EPTThis way, no matter who we lynch first, he wants to lynch two townies in Shady and Thrawn (no I am not making a scum slip based on my knowledge that both Shady and Thrawn are town). It is true, I may have misinterpreted GK's post (I still not sure, but let's suppose that I did). The difference is that the Archrun's proposal is clearly scum motivated.
Newbie Mini Mafia XXIV - Page 4
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
This way, no matter who we lynch first, he wants to lynch two townies in Shady and Thrawn (no I am not making a scum slip based on my knowledge that both Shady and Thrawn are town). It is true, I may have misinterpreted GK's post (I still not sure, but let's suppose that I did). The difference is that the Archrun's proposal is clearly scum motivated. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Also, I would appreciate any comment on what you think about my interpretation of Archrun's post, that he was trying to benefit from the mislynch. | ||
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YourHarry
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On August 17 2012 08:21 Golbat wrote: He spends the remainder of the time up until now either asking for other peoples reads or talking about archrun, until joining the shady wagon. He mentions several times how his vote was "not an OMGUS" and then he says this. He's begging people to post something so he can sheep it. It's so far beyond just poor play that I can't really believe he isn't scum. He talks about scumhunting and how everyone else should do it, without ever doing it himself. If that isn't scummy, I don't know what is. You do realize that Thrawn was not sheeping on Shady lynch. He was one of the people who was vocal about his suspicion of Shady. He also outlined a case against Arch. Have you read these posts? If so, I don't know how you claim that Thrawn is attempting to sheep. If anything, his asking why we should go after a lurker, instead of someone he has scummy evidence for, means that he is not trying to base his vote on lurking alone. On August 17 2012 08:09 Golbat wrote: If one player comes up town, that never makes another player scum 100%. Unless you have some inside info, you just pulled this thought out of your ass. Either way, Archrun is on my radar now because townies should never be thinking like that. My vote stands on thrawn, but Archrun is gonna have some 'splaining to do. I agree with you here, thus explaining my scum reads on Archrun. Not to repeat myself so many times, but for emphasis: it is apparent that Archrun is trying to benefit from mislynching two bad players. The only drawback of this Archrun's strategy is that he may look bad after both Thrawn and Shady flip town. In either case, do you agree that if Archrun flips scum, Thrawn is almost confirmed town? | ||
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YourHarry
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On August 17 2012 08:40 marvellosity wrote: Vote count, cowboys: ShadySands (4): thrawn2112, SolarSail, mkfuba07, Jhuyt thrawn2112 (4): ShadySands, Archrun, DarthPunk, Golbat Archrun (3): Stutters695. Ochrow, YourHarry Jhuyt (2): goodkarma, Z-Boson Shady Sands currently set to be lynched. 20 minutes until the deadline! Unless three scums were all already voting for ShadySands, if Thrawn is indeed scum, one of his scum partners would have tried to move his vote to ShadySands. While Shady was set to be lynched because he was the first player to receive 4 votes, it would have been still dangerous from scum's perspective because all it takes is one townie to switch his vote to Thrawn and the scum would be lynched. But this did not happen, which is consistent with Thrawn being town. Two possible scenarios that counter this argument are that: 1) Scums were simply not around to make last minute changes in this vote. This seems possible because it was pretty close to the deadline when I changed my vote from Shady to Archrun and Golbat placed his vote on Thrawn. This is not completely out of the question, but A) considering that scums still had one hour window to make the move and B) that scum Thrawn means that his scum partners would have been very well aware that Thrawn was a strong lynch candidate (based on discussion that happened hours prior to the deadline), I suspect that Tharwn's scum teammates would have been watching things closely. 2) Thrawn's scum partners were too hesitant to switch their votes, in fear that it would make them suspicious. This is possible, but maybe it would not have been too difficult to fabricate some wishy-washy with reasons for change in opinion. And I do realize that by my own analysis, my last minute switch in voting from Archrun to Shady could make me suspicious... But at this point, my scum reads were Archrun > Shady > Thrawn. So when it looked like Archrun lynch seemed impossible, I wanted to make sure Archrun lynch over Thrawn lynch happens. But in summary, until I changed my vote from Archrun to Shady, which happened like 2 minutes before the deadline, the scums had some window of opportunity to switch their votes to Shady (unless all three were already voting for Shady) in order to provide a some protection against last minutes switch of votes to their scum partner Thrawn. This is not a fool-proof evidence, as there are possible exceptions listed above 1) and 2) but I think this should render additional evidence that Thrawn is town (and thus both Thrawn and Shady are town) which would confirm my suspicion that Archrun is attempting to benefit from mislynching two townies. | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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On August 17 2012 08:19 DarthPunk wrote: You are now Guilty of the exact same thing as Archun except you have worded it without looking blatantly suspicious. That makes you more suspicious to me than Archun's post did. I don't see why you have a 'strong town read' on thrawn, I don't think any one in their right mind could have a strong town read on him at this point in time. I could see why you don't think he is the best lynch candidate, but strong town read? give me a break. In no way at all does Archun's post confirm Thrawn as town. Jesus Christ. First thrawn does it for you and now you are doing it for thrawn. I do not venture to say Thrawn is confirmed town. I am pretty sure he is town, and maybe we disagree. But if Arch flips scum, would you agree that Thrawn is almost confirmed town? | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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I also read your bread-crumb post. Initially thought you were investigator due to this post: On August 17 2012 14:58 thrawn2112 wrote: I could not understand why shady was pushing so hard to have me lynched. I had given him sufficient arguments to back down on his claims, and I didn't feel like he was paying attention to any of my responses. My being lynched would benefit the scum team, and so the longer he continued to press his case against me the more and more I thought he was scum. Archrun was another player who moved to lynch me for reasons I didn't think were genuine so I also thought he could be scum. My vote for shady was based on shady being the most vocal, and in my eyes, stubborn about me being scum. The current debate is over whether I or Archrun are scum. Before the vote Archrun said that if shady is town, then I should be lynched. Yourharry is saying that if Archrun is scum, then I am town. My efforts are going to be focused on going through Archrun's filter, and I will post about it if I find something worth bringing up. I don't think that town should focus 100% on Archrun and I. After I go through Archrun's filter I will also read through the filters of the people most outspoken in the debate over shady/thrawn and I think everyone else should do the same. I realize I haven't posted much of substance, but I thought it was worth saying that Archrun and I shouldn't be the only people investigated. Expect my next post to contain my read on Archrun, and possibly reads on some other players who were outspoken in the shady/thrawn debate. I knew you were blue role either way. It makes sense though, you asking the detective to not investigate Archrun because you were going to target him anyway. | ||
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YourHarry
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On August 18 2012 10:49 thrawn2112 wrote: You say that my argument concerning mkfuba is wifom. However I think it provides a very strong reason why I wouldn't kill mkfuba as scum thrawn. He was the MOST convinced that I was town, and wrote a very long argument as to why he believed so. He had the strongest town read on me, and was killed. I cannot conceive of any possible mafia plot that would involve killing a town player who gave the best case as to why a scum player is town. But this indeed is WIFOM. The explanation you gave - as to why you wouldn't target mkfuba as scum - is the basis for "mafia plot that would involve killing a town player who gave the best case as to why a scum player is town". Because if people generally accepted what you are saying is true - that mkfuba's NK would mean town thrawn - this is the exactly the reason why scum thrawn may think about targeting mkfuba. Re-evaluating... | ||
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YourHarry
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One one hand, I think Thrawn is town for targeting Archrun. Because if Thrawn is scum, he would have known that Archrun is town - thus Archrun flipping town would make Thrawn suspicious. This target would make sense if Thrawn is town because after witnessing people cast suspicions on him, he wanted to confirm himself as town by making the vig kill on scum Archrun. But on the other hand, I can see scum Thrawn making the fake "bread crumb" warning the detective not to investigate Archrun - then making himself look town by targeting Orchrun anyway. It would be a convincing story after all, as Thrawn can argue what I just argued above and say "if I was scum, why would I have targeted Orchrun to make myself suspicious". And it does make sense to leave the subtle breadcrumb post as scum, because as scum, Thrawn must first had to confirm if there is an additional night kill. Because if there is no SK, there only would have been one night kill and Thrawn could not have pulled off his fake role as a vigilante. Only by seeing that there are two night kills, Thrawn could then come out and fit the pieces together - citing his night post as evidence that he wanted the detective to check out someone other than Archrun. (As an aside, this means that SK targeted mkfuba. I think the strategy for SK is to try to go after scummy. Which means the SK is not likely to be one of the people who had strong town read on mkfuba. Anyway, I digress.) One part of the "bread crumb post" - which he denies is the breadcrumb post - that I think makes Thrawn suspicious is that he asks detective not to check Thrawn. It makes sense from vigilante Thrawn's point of view to have the detective check on someone other than Archrun, but why would vigilante Thrawn discourage the detective to check Thrawn? Maybe it can be argued that vigilante Thrawn thought that he could prove his innocence by saying that he targeted Archrun. But in general, I am inclined to believe that townies want the detective to investigate him unless he was a MILLER or something. Such investigation may not be most efficient, but generally the townies have the desire to be confirmed townie. So the fact that Thrawn discouraged the detective to check him makes me suspicious of Thrawn. And, to be honest, my strong town read on Thrawn was mostly based on my certainty that Archrun was scum. I was pretty sure that his motivation was to lynch both townies in Thrawn and Shady. But obviously I was wrong, and maybe Archrun was right after all. I am leaning toward Thrawn scum. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
If Thrawn is scum, then there must be SK. So there should be two kills tomorrow, which would mean that Thrawn is scum., because if Thrawn was vigilante, there is no SK based on last night's actions and there can only be 1 kill tomorrow. And there is no reason for SK to not send in the kill, because if there is SK, he must already know that Thrawn is scum because there were only 2 kills last night- rather than 3. And SK's primary target is always scum, so he would want to send in the kill so that towns can lynch Thrawn. One flaw in this strategy is that, Tharwn's scum team may already know that there is SK (due to 2 night kills last night and no vigilante counter claiming). This means that scum team may give up their night killing power, to make it look like there is no SK - which would imply that Thrawn is town. But this cannot be the long term strategy because scum team can never send in a kill for rest of the game - otherwise Thrawn will be autolynched. This would be way to favorable for SK, and scum would rather choose to lose one scum in Thrawn than hand the game over to SK. So this is what I propose. We lynch someone else and see how many people night kills there are tomorrow to determine Thrawn's alignment. | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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Aside from the ease with which the Thrawn bandwagon is gaining momentum (an attempted scum lynch typically is followed by scum resistance), I expressed my opinion that after my initial town read on Thrawn based on Archrun being scum went out the window, I wanted to re-evaluate my read on Thrawn. And the combination of 1) Thrawn denying his breadcrumb post and 2) his claiming only after the second night kill was apparent makes me think that Thrawn is attempting to sell his vigilante story. If he did actually leave a bread crumb post saying that he is vigilante, I would have been more likely to buy his claim because then he would be incriminated in case there is no SK - and thus only one night kill. At this point, it seems like a safe claim from scum's point of view - knowing that SK would never claim at this point. And as far as the quick wagon on Thrawn, it is possible that all of the players voting for Thrawn are indeed all townies and they are correct about Thrawn being scum. And I guess it is also possible that one or more scums are bussing their scum partner in Thrawn. In addition, I also find Thrawn's attempt to discourage the detective from investigating him (despite him not having the misfortune of being the miller) suspicious. I tend to think that townies want to feel the peace of mind in being confirmed by the detective. And, I was not trying to keep Thrawn alive as long as possible, per se. I just thought that there could have been a strategy that we can employ that would allow us to find out Thrawn's alignment without having to compromise town's interest. But as goodkarma suggested, since townies can get a medic save OR scums may intentionally forgo one night kill (although extended giving up of the scum kill power or SK not sending in the kill could be eliminated from the possibility, for reasons I described earlier). As such, I am withdrawing my proposal to try to wait and see Thrawn's alignment. I understand that if Thrawn does flip scum, this will make me suspicious for seemingly trying to defend Thrawn. But you should realize that scums tend not to defend each other so directly and conspicuously, in fear that such defense could lead to one being scum must be the other one being scum. And while that this may be WIFOM, it is also true that in practice such eye-catching defenses almost never occurs between two scums. Also, if you do get a chance, I advise everyone to read the XXI game (Mafia XXI Link and Scum Dr. Wiggle's Filter). I believe you will have a much easier time understanding where I was coming from, in terms of my strong suspicion of Archrun and thus my earlier town read on Thrawn. For reasons explained above: ##Vote Thrawn | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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While it is true that I may have briefly mentioned my town read on Archrun on Day 1, when deciding to lynch between Archrun and Shady, at the time it was only a mild town read based on the fact that explanations given by Thrawn made logical sense to me. After Archrun's post outlining what seemed to be his scum plan of action, Thrawn was indeed almost as good as confirmed townie in my mind. And this was due to my thinking that Archrun was scum. But I don't think I ever claimed that he is a confirmed townie. I did say that he is a confirmed townie if Archrun flipped scum, which he didn't. Recent postings make me think that Thrawn and Golbat are on the same team. This post stands out: On August 18 2012 15:10 Golbat wrote: I am in agreement that we should just lynch thrawn here. We seem to have caught a scum or even two, I think if thrawn flips scum then YH is almost certainly scum. Obviously, from my perspective, this only sounds like Golbat is trying to mislynch me knowing that Thrawn will flip scum. There are other two players who suspect me of being scum with Thrawn: Darth and GK. But despite my previous suspicion of GK, their outlining of cases actually make some logical sense right now and they seem to be actually trying to scum hunt. (And I admit that I may look scummy right now for flip flopping my vote and trying to defend Thrawn). On the other hand, Golbat suddenly shows up and basically sheeps other people's cases. Only thing that seems a bit weird is that he is one of the first players to cast a vote against Thrawn, when day 2 opened, after Darth. However, this may be mafia QT planned action to encourage Golbat to bus against Thrawn - one who is likely to be suspected anyway due to Day 1 mislynch of Shady. More importantly, Thrawn suddenly suspects Golbat, because he is lurking. Even though there are other lurkers, he specifically picks out Golbat just because he recently posted. While I agree that pressuring lurkers is a good strategy, Thrawn did not have any interaction with Golbat... but all of the sudden, he singles him out. Thrawn at this point knows that his lynch is imminent, and that there is nothing he can do to avoid flipping red. This to me seems like his attempt to distance himself from his scum partner in Golbat: On August 18 2012 15:40 thrawn2112 wrote: You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town. I'm going to respond to your post, but it is VERY long and references tons of other posts all of which are very long so don't expect a response for quite awhile. I am also busy scumhunting but this is having to be done on my own because I don't have any credibility right now. Just to give you an idea of what leads I'm going after, here is my interpretation of what's going on. So far 3 town players have been killed/lynched. The scum I suspected (archrun and shady) of being behind my D1 lynch case turned out to be town. While this is going on there are a few players that have posted very, very little content. My conclusion is that either the scum team are doing an extremely good job of hiding their actions or that there is at least one, if not probably more than 1 scum among the lurkers. I am currently looking at Gobalt because his latest contribution was a vote for me and his only motivation for that vote was that he agreed with what others have said. Since the shady lynching he hasn't contributed anything beyond the post I pointed out in my post before this one and I would like to hear what he has to say. There are other lurkers too but since he is in the thread right now we had better get him posting while we can. Taken together, I think this strongly suggests that Thrawn and Golbat are scums together. | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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Seriously, not answering questions from a lurker who barely posted seems like a forced reason to put more suspicion on Thrawn, which seems like an attempt to protect yourself after Thrawn flips scum. | ||
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YourHarry
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DarthPunk goodkarma Golbat thrawn2112 Jhuyt SolarSail Z-BosoN Stutters695 Ochrow Darth is almost for sure not the SK, especially because he was roleblocked and there was a second night kill. SK should also be very quick to dismiss any vigilante claim, because there were only two night kills. SK, if vig claim is true, should have expected 3 night kills. In this regard, Darth, Golbat, Solar and GK are likely candidates. Darth, for reason mentioned above, is not SK. Golbat I think is scum. Either Solar or GK could be SK. Also, assuming that SK was aiming for the scum, he must have thought that mkfuba is scum. In this respect, Solar or Ochrow could be the SK because they both believed my mason-read claim and may have thought that mkfuba who was suspicious of me was scum. This is, admittedly, a weak connection but I think this is a possibility. Solar also was one of the players who quickly dismissed Thrawn's vigilante claim. Z-boson hasn't posted today yet, but he seemed to suspect me on Day 1 so I don't think he would have targeted mkfuba as SK. So, unlikely to be the SK. Stutters makes this possibly suspicious post regarding SK on Day 1: On August 15 2012 10:29 Stutters695 wrote: In regards to an SK: I agree with discussing the SK being a waste of time. It will become obvious very quickly if there is an SK when multiple people are dying nightly. He also ends up voting for Archrun, and may have thought that I was townie. Thus, Stutter targeting mkfuba, who was suspicious of me, could be consistent with Stutter being the SK. So, currently I think two likely SK candidates are Solar and Stutter and then maybe GoodKarma. For now though, we should focus more on lynching the scums than SK, as SK could help us target some of the scums. | ||
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YourHarry
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