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Newbie Mini Mafia XXIV - Page 4

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
August 16 2012 02:24 GMT
#274
EBWOP: Lead with a shortlist, and end with a single candidate.
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
August 16 2012 10:30 GMT
#300
On August 16 2012 13:58 Archrun wrote:
Sorry for being lurky, not intend just became last minute busy. As far as reads go I am going through the thread at will give my thoughts on the case against YH, thrawn, and GK as soon as I can, but right now I want to make a ##FoS: Jhuyt and Solar

Case:
Jhuyt puts:
Show nested quote +
On Solar: This is just how he is in general from what I've seen on TL, so I don't have anything there.

then Solar puts:
Show nested quote +
Secondly, the continued defence of me by Thrawn has no basis. I was clearly being anti-town. Some evidence:

"I am still of the opinion that solar's posts are somewhat likely to be emotional overreactions rather than scummy."

"Shady, can you explain your reasoning for initially jumping all over solar?"

"Most of the discussion right now is about solarsail. I don't think there's anything wrong with this because so far his posts haven't seemed very useful but we have still yet to hear from several players. He could easily be town and just reacting to everyone immediately jumping on his case as soon as the game starts."

"Suspicion of a soft accusation is hardly good evidence that he should be lynched especially when there has been so little discussion so far so I am not sold on your case against him."

There is little reason to defend me so much unless your motivation is to defend someone he knows to be town player for deflection reasons.


May main concern is two-fold:
1) Jhuyt claims Solar is just an emotional by his previous TL post history, which later Solar claims to be a deliberate act. Futhermore, skimming through Solar TL post history it doesn't seem that emotionally based. In fact, it is closer to his current professionalism. I believe Jhuyt defense of him is a blatant lie.
2) Solar questions why Thrawn is defending him, but not Jhuyt. Other people defend Solar has a bad townies, and to shape up his posting, while Jhuyt explained Solar behavior (falsely) as that is the type of person solar is.

This leads me wonder why would Solar question Thrawn's motives and not Jhuyt?

This plays out four ways:

If Jhuyt is townie and Solar is townie then Solar should of suspected his motives like he did with thrawn or both of them are mason and there is no need to question each others motives. I believe them being Masons is possible.

If Jhuyt is townie and Solar is scum then why would jhuyt lie about Solar's posting? Futhermore, why wouldn't Solar call Jhuyt out like he did with Thrawn? The only why I can see is to put focus on one person. This seems dishonest. nor does it allievate Jhuyt roll. under those ground I reject this possibility.

If Jhuyt is scum and Solar is scum then either a bus play could happen(which didn't) or they could protect each other. They could directly protect each other by offering counter arguments against both of them, (which only Jhuyt did in that one line lie) or indirectly by not bringing attention to each other(which would be a play that Solar made. I believe them both being scum is possible.

Finally, if Jhuyt is scum and Solar is townie then by lying Jhuyt post (which occured before Solar) puts focus on Shady and potentially has some a townie on his side. Solar likewise either became a townie by his side(doubtful, because he didn't defend him against Shady's accusation) or Solar would of question his motive like he did with thrawn. I reject this possibility as stated above.

This leads me to believe Jhuyt and Solar are Scum or Masons.

Thoughts? Concerns? Did I miss something? I don't think Solar missed Jhuyt post because he was corresponding with Shady the entire page and part way through there correspondences Shady replied to Jhuyt. I want to emphasis I haven't look at the evidence agaisnt Thrawn thoroughly so I have no argument on him as scum or town at the moment.


This actually makes quite a bit of sense. I'm thinking JHuyt is likely scum based on the above and his inactivity, but not our top lynch candidate.

Right now, my shortlist is as follows:

--YH: Inconsistent posting, swingy analysis. This doesn't necessarily mean he's scum, but it means he is not someone I want in town if town hits MYLO/LYLO. Action: warning, 1 scum point, shape up your posting.

The mason read theory makes sense, but again, it's hugely swingy and not something many people will want to follow--and hence of limited use to town, since it's not likely it will ever gain enough popularity to submit it to the acid test of a lynch.

--Thrawn: My suspicion on Thrawn has gone way up since his posting last night. Why?

Thrawn feigns activity but in reality is only actively sheeping people. Thrawn hasn't come up with a single independent read on anyone from the very first case (me on Solar) onwards. Indeed, when the activity gets slow, he feels the best way to do something is to ask people what their reads are:

On August 15 2012 13:52 thrawn2112 wrote:
YourHarry, who do you find most scummy at this exact point in time?


Why would he be asking YH this question instead of sharing his own point of view? (Which he still hasn't done)

In addition, his posting is actively trying to slow things down and muddle the scumhunt:

+ Show Spoiler [super long post] +
On August 16 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote:
Policy?

A few people started talking about policy at the beginning and we never actually came to an agreement on that because of solar's trolling. Can we say whether or not we are going to FOS lurkers? Of course this doesnt not mean an automatic lynching, but it will help to keep everyone posting so that we can all get better reads. My vote is that yes, this policy should be put in effect, even though we have almost wasted the opportunity to do so.

Concerning the YH topic:

3 possibilities immediately come to mind:

One, that YH is being honest about him thinking that solar and gk are masons. That will explain basically all of his scummy sounding posting earlier in the game. Two, that he and solar are masons. This would explain his strong conviction that solar is town, and could also explain why he posted like he had information to hide. Three, YH and solar, or maybe just YH is scum. This would also account for the cryptic way he was posting. The only part that I'm having trouble with, is that 4 minutes after voting for me for being suspicious of shady, he unvoted me and changed his vote to solar. 21 minutes later is when according to him, he came up with his 'solar as mason' theory and unvoted again. So if YH is scum and solar is scum, why would YH ever vote for solar in the first place? It could be a sneaky manipulation but i doubt that is the case. This makes me believe that no, YH and solar cannot BOTH be scum. YH's quick changing of votes is what I'm currently looking at to see if I can make any reads as far as YH is concerned.

At this point I think YH's alliance hinges on whether or not you believe his story about suspecting solar and gk of being masons. At one point in the game I was willing to indulge the thought that YH and solar were masons based off a weak read I was making, (the extra information YH was hinting at) so it is easy for me to believe that YH did the same. YH, for now I believe your story and do not think either you or solar are scum.

Solarsail

Just to confirm what I'm thinking, do we all trust solarsail's account of his first few posts, that he was trolling to get responses? I'm assuming we all do? Myself, I believe him. I don't think a player who posts like he initially posted would be able to post how he is posting now unless they were trolling. Initially he was the most scummy player, but at that point in the game less than half the players had even posted. As time went on I began to think that no he's not scum, but he's a town player who just doesn't understand what the tone of this game is supposed to be. Honestly solar you were posting like you had just come in from a sc2 tournament thread, it was very hard to know what to make of that. IMO you actually caused more harm than if you would have allowed the discussion to remain on policy talk. The first few pages of posting were very chaotic and full of people making baseless accusations set by the tone of how you chose to play the game. Yes, I do think that myself and maybe some other people are able to make reads off the situation you created, but I think that those reads could have come regardless of your trolling.


mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not?



So after he makes this post, he does the "slam dunk FoS on Archrun" for not posting.

After that he moves to a "soft chainsaw" on Z-Boson for criticizing Ochrow (while again not offering his own reads):
+ Show Spoiler [The Soft Chainsaw] +
On August 16 2012 08:29 thrawn2112 wrote:
Z-Boson, are you thinking that Ochrow has a read on NH that he isn't explaining?

Show nested quote +
On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:
On YH:
So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel.


What I got from that quote is that ochrow thinks NH could be town. The opening statement of that quote you referenced was "So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him" followed by "he too is giving off a town feel." I don't understand if you are saying Ochrow has a town or scum read on NH.

On August 16 2012 09:04 thrawn2112 wrote:
Yes, NH = YH, my bad.

So to clarify since you didnt actually answer the question, were you saying that ochrow had a town or a scum read on yourharry?

The "as to any motives behind that I can't yet speak" quote is a little ambiguous but I understood it as ochrow being suspicious of shady for shady focusing on solar's first post, but having nothing else to go on he was just leaving it at that, suspicion. What you have accused him of implying is a stretch. I have gone through ochrow's filter and can't a case of him keeping secrets about his read on solar. Could you find/quote/explain that one too?

I do not think your case against Ochrow is very convincing and I believe that you are reading too much into his posts.



On August 16 2012 09:42 thrawn2112 wrote:
I don't think there's evidence of Ochrow hiding information in the "(ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it)" post.

Show nested quote +
On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:

On YH:
So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel.


Ochrow wasn't saying that he had a secret read, he was saying that yourharry claimed to have a secret read on solar, which is here:

Show nested quote +
On August 15 2012 12:24 YourHarry wrote:
Never mind. I am confident Solarsail is town. Move on.

##Unvote


and here:

Show nested quote +
On August 15 2012 13:20 YourHarry wrote:
Shady. I guess there is a small chance that I could be wrong. But if I am right, it is not a good idea to reveal this information. Let's move on for now.


I think you misquoted Ochrow, that "secret read" statement wasn't about himself.



Then finally settles on tunneling Archrun. This is where it gets a little interesting. Why Archrun for lurkerish behavior, when Golbat has only made 2 posts, and JHuyt 2 posts of terrible quality?

This is where we tie something else in: Golbat early in D1 accuses Thrawn, who claims drunkenness and laughs off the post. Golbat never brings up the post again. Thrawn ignores Golbat. Both players almost deliberately made accusations against each other without following up on each other. This smells fishy, as a townie Golbat in XXII would have immediately jumped on something like that, and a townie Thrawn would have tried to lynch Golbat AND JHuyt for lurkerish behavior. But why are they playing nice with each other?

My top read right now is Thrawn, and as such, I'm giving him my vote.

## Vote Thrawn2112

--Solarsail: This post by him makes me very suspicious:

On August 16 2012 15:11 Solarsail wrote:
I will be back in four hours with a full post but I want to address two things

1. I wasn't suspicious of Jhuyt because there was so little to work with. I have him down as a near-lurker and hence '?' for now.

2. Jhuyt and I have a specific history in a specific thread involving some deleted posts. It's understandable him and him alone would say that.


There's essentially no way to verify the truth of this statement if only him and Solar can attest to it. I want to hear a clearer read between Solar and JHuyt, specifically why Solar believes JHuyt to be innocent and not worth a lurker lynch.

--JHuyt: Still haven't responded, so my original case on him still stands. Strong FoS, and if he continues to lurk I may consider changing my vote to him to guarantee a no-lynch.

Right now though, my top lynch target is Thrawn. From the first massively WIFOM Serial Killer post, to the WIFOM on Policy, YH, and Solarsail, to his soft defense of Ochrow against Z-Boson--all of this smells extremely scummy. Scum have to look like they're active, scum have to stay alive, and scum have to help each other. Thrawn's posting behavior fits all three motives to a T.

Lynch Thrawn.
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
August 16 2012 10:32 GMT
#303
Okay, I just posted and I immediately saw Ochrow and Thrawn both trying to get a train on Archrun going (both posting within 30 minutes of each other.) This just reconfirms my theory:

Ochrow and Thrawn are, at the very least, working together, and given how Thrawn's been so WIFOMy and sheepy for the game, I'd reckon they are not masons but scum.
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
August 16 2012 10:41 GMT
#304
One other person to add to the ##FoS list: Ochrow

First post, all he's doing is trying to sound "fair and balanced" without offering a set opinion of his own one way or another:

On August 15 2012 15:42 Ochrow wrote:
Howdy. Like most of you here, still getting the hang of this especially since this is my first game of forum mafia (sorry Shady no filters or meta for me yet). What little experience I do have is from playing live with some TL friends of mine, and one trend that I remember a lot from that was that scum had a stronger tendency towards the deflection/OMGUS style of play. And so along the same line of though Solar does seem a bit scummy to me. I see what a few people, particularly Shady, have been saying about his first post and that seems logical to me, but more than that is his persistence with just the general "why are you attacking me attack him/her" stuff that makes me suspicious. So while I don't feel strongly enough to vote I do want to just throw it out there that Solar you should really try to focus on changing your attitude and respond to questions rather than just be sarcastic and/or deflecting.


Then Ochrow moves to doing the "easy attack" on Archrun (even though Golbat and JHuyt at the time were even more lurkerish).

On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:
My two cents on Shady:
My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded.

On Solar:
As I originally said I felt that his play was not at all pro-town but, assuming he is telling the truth about the acting and that he didn't just pull it out of his ass, he has really turned around and is very much giving off a townie feel.

On YH:
So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel.

As for any reads I have, in most of the games I've played there has been at least one scum that was just purely a lurker, and as such I get a bit of a scum feeling from Archrun. He has only three posts all only a few sentences, long enough to not be pointed out as one-liners but only just. I guess I also get suspicious of any first post that just focuses on O hai thar I'm a townie yay killing scum. While I know everybody is trying to prove themselves as town I just get bad feelings when the substance of somebody's post is:

Show nested quote +
On August 15 2012 10:10 Archrun wrote:
As a Townee, I promote any policy that helps us catch scum, but we must back accusation up with evidence(which this policy should provided) and reason.


On top of that in his three posts he doesn't get into what he thinks about who might be scum but is just theorizing or throwing out a soft defense. I may be totally off on here but until he posts a bit more or contributes something of substance I am going to throw out ##FoS Archrun

As per Solar's question I hope this helps, and if there was any curiosity about the reasoning behind my general consensus post, it seemed like a lot of people were in more or less violent agreement over the Solar issue so I wanted to throw out my understanding of events in the hope that it might lead to shorter and/or fewer posts beating that dead horse.


Then, even after the gigantic discussion on me, JHuyt, YH, and Solar, all he does is claim "townie feel" on all everyone while focusing on posters with nearly 0 posts to analyze. This is wierd. Again, scum like going for low-hanging easy mislynches like this, and his blatant cooperation with Thrawn makes me hugely suspicious.

One final note: look through Ochrow's filter: note how his posts always cluster around the same time Thrawn is posting, but he only mentions the existence of Thrawn once. Wierd, no?
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
August 16 2012 10:42 GMT
#305
I am going to say this again very clearly:

## Vote Thrawn2112, ## FoS Ochrow

Everyone just do it.
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
August 16 2012 11:07 GMT
#307
On August 16 2012 19:58 thrawn2112 wrote:
Shady, did you read my post about JHyut's claim?

Show nested quote +
On August 16 2012 19:27 thrawn2112 wrote:
I did some fact checking, and I was able to find the posts between solar and jhuyt that solar mentioned earlier. They happened in the My Little Pony thread on April 4th 2012.


My suspicion of Archrun was independent of Ochrow's orignal post. When I began focusing on Archrun, there were 4 people who had posted 4 times or less. I checked each of their filters and Archrun was the only one who had not given an opinion on anything concerning scum reads or even suspicions of scum. His posts contained the least amount of useful information so he seemed like the 1st lurker I needed to pressure. I even posted this reasoning when I originally called him out the first time.

As for your claims that ochrow and I are scum working together.....well I have no defense to that. If I am town, that is not a falsifiable accusation.

Archrun, what did Gobalt ever say to me? Are you talking about his post 6 hours after the game started, when only a few people had posted so far, where he says I am the scummiest because of my SK comment? If you think that post was scum thrawn trying to distract from scumhunting, then you need to read it again:

+ Show Spoiler +
On August 15 2012 09:55 thrawn2112 wrote:
Does anyone have experience playing in a game where a serial killer was a possible role? If there did end up being a serial killer, how big a role did they play and how high would you rate the importance and achieveability of sniffing them out early? In other words, would it be a worthwhile use of the town's time and investigation to try to figure out who, if anyone, is the serial killer? I can see how it would be very important to find out who is SK early on, but I also can see how it might be way more difficult than figuring out who is mafia, and thus not a good use of time. One distinction between the serial killer and the mafia is that the mafia are in communication and will be working together while the serial killer is separated from both town and mafia. Any player who is suspected to be not of town affiliation could either be mafia or SK, so while in either case they are a good target for lynching, having knowledge of their actual role would be way more valuable than just an uninformed hit on a supposed non-town player.

If there isn't an SK, then this line of discussion is a complete waste of time and we would be doing the mafia's job for them, which is why I asked if anyone has experience in games with an SK so that we all can get a better idea of what the risk/reward anaylsis should be on determining whether or not and when to focus on a potential SK.

Concerning shady sand's post, this is my first game so I have no previous history to reference.


I didnt not bold anything just now. I clearly stated that I knew that if there wasn't an SK then it would be a waste our time worrying about one. In fact the whole point of that post was to ask if anyone had any previous experience in a game that had SKs, and if they had any advice on how to approach the issue, or if to even approach it at all.


I read it, and it doesn't matter to the case on you.

But the issue with Archrun is you didn't compare him at all to the other lurkers. Nope. You just went ahead and joined in on Ochrow's accusation of Archrun without even offering any of your own analysis to back it up. Who were those other 3 people who had posted 4 times or less? Can you tell me who you checked?

And of course you can't defend yourself from the blatant double-teaming you and Ochrow are doing. Anyone who has been in the thread in the past day can tell.

Finally, on your SK post, why would you make a post that you knew to be a complete waste of time? Answer: scum who needs to look busy... or look cute by feigning ignorance as to whether there is an SK or not (when such information is available on in the OP to this thread.)

Conclusion: Thrawn, you are scum.
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
August 16 2012 11:09 GMT
#308
So in summary: Voting Thrawn

Strong FoS: Ochrow, JHuyt

Mild FoS: Solarsail

Lurker alert: Golbat
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
August 16 2012 11:56 GMT
#312
On August 16 2012 20:24 goodkarma wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 16 2012 19:42 Shady Sands wrote:
I am going to say this again very clearly:

## Vote Thrawn2112, ## FoS Ochrow

Everyone just do it.


My response to this can be summarized in one word:
NO.

The absolute last thing we need is for everyone to sheep onto a candidate. Everyone who hasn't voted needs to clearly spell out their scum suspects and their reasoning for voting for who they do. Our reasoning for our lynch candidates is just as important (if not more) than who we choose on day one.

Sheeping leads to two scenarios:

What information do we get on everyone's motivations if we mislynch? Pretty much nothing... Well, everyone voted for this one person because they were told to. It pretty much leads to day two turning into an extended day one. The vote will have meant pretty much nothing, since everyone blindly ganged up on the wrong candidate...

If we lynch a scum, then great. Everyone celebrates and forgets how bad sheeping is. But it's just not worth it. Part of day one is encouraging a good town atmosphere, and sheeping is never a part of that.

If you're going to try to position yourself as a town leader, then this is not the way to do it. I'd go so far as to give you a "light":

##FoS: Shady Sands

Encouraging sheeping is very anti-town. From a town perspective, I think it's very plausible you're a little overexcited about your findings on Thrawn, and what you perceive to be a sure scum day one lynch, and that's why I'd call it a "light FoS." Honestly, though, this post was alarming to me, and looks like a great way to herd town behind a scum agenda.




Got it. In no way should you interpret my post as telling people to stop thinking for themselves and just follow me.

That being said, though, what do you think of the cases on Thrawn and Ochrow?
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
August 16 2012 12:06 GMT
#314
+ Show Spoiler [Thrawn's post] +
On August 16 2012 20:33 thrawn2112 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 16 2012 20:07 Shady Sands wrote:
On August 16 2012 19:58 thrawn2112 wrote:
Shady, did you read my post about JHyut's claim?

On August 16 2012 19:27 thrawn2112 wrote:
I did some fact checking, and I was able to find the posts between solar and jhuyt that solar mentioned earlier. They happened in the My Little Pony thread on April 4th 2012.


My suspicion of Archrun was independent of Ochrow's orignal post. When I began focusing on Archrun, there were 4 people who had posted 4 times or less. I checked each of their filters and Archrun was the only one who had not given an opinion on anything concerning scum reads or even suspicions of scum. His posts contained the least amount of useful information so he seemed like the 1st lurker I needed to pressure. I even posted this reasoning when I originally called him out the first time.

As for your claims that ochrow and I are scum working together.....well I have no defense to that. If I am town, that is not a falsifiable accusation.

Archrun, what did Gobalt ever say to me? Are you talking about his post 6 hours after the game started, when only a few people had posted so far, where he says I am the scummiest because of my SK comment? If you think that post was scum thrawn trying to distract from scumhunting, then you need to read it again:

+ Show Spoiler +
On August 15 2012 09:55 thrawn2112 wrote:
Does anyone have experience playing in a game where a serial killer was a possible role? If there did end up being a serial killer, how big a role did they play and how high would you rate the importance and achieveability of sniffing them out early? In other words, would it be a worthwhile use of the town's time and investigation to try to figure out who, if anyone, is the serial killer? I can see how it would be very important to find out who is SK early on, but I also can see how it might be way more difficult than figuring out who is mafia, and thus not a good use of time. One distinction between the serial killer and the mafia is that the mafia are in communication and will be working together while the serial killer is separated from both town and mafia. Any player who is suspected to be not of town affiliation could either be mafia or SK, so while in either case they are a good target for lynching, having knowledge of their actual role would be way more valuable than just an uninformed hit on a supposed non-town player.

If there isn't an SK, then this line of discussion is a complete waste of time and we would be doing the mafia's job for them, which is why I asked if anyone has experience in games with an SK so that we all can get a better idea of what the risk/reward anaylsis should be on determining whether or not and when to focus on a potential SK.

Concerning shady sand's post, this is my first game so I have no previous history to reference.


I didnt not bold anything just now. I clearly stated that I knew that if there wasn't an SK then it would be a waste our time worrying about one. In fact the whole point of that post was to ask if anyone had any previous experience in a game that had SKs, and if they had any advice on how to approach the issue, or if to even approach it at all.


I read it, and it doesn't matter to the case on you.


I know, I was telling you because it should change your suspicion about jhyut. Your suspicion of him seemed to hinge on the accusation that he told a lie about solar. I have pointed out that it wasn't a lie, and anyone that wants to check this can go look at the posts on april 4 in the my little pony thread.

Show nested quote +
On August 16 2012 20:07 Shady Sands wrote:But the issue with Archrun is you didn't compare him at all to the other lurkers. Nope. You just went ahead and joined in on Ochrow's accusation of Archrun without even offering any of your own analysis to back it up. Who were those other 3 people who had posted 4 times or less? Can you tell me who you checked?


Yes, I did compare him to other lurkers. You yourself allowed that I said I checked his posts against the posts of 3 other lurkers. The lurkers I checked on were gobalt, archrun, jhyut, ochrow, and stutters. I have explained my reasoning for targeting archun several times.

Show nested quote +
On August 16 2012 09:49 thrawn2112 wrote:
I still want to hear what archrun thinks about solar as well some other accusations such as the one against yourharry. He has only made 3 posts so far, and one of them was about policy, and the other two were about the SK question I asked at the beginning of the game. So far I've yet to hear any opinion from archrun about anything relevant.


Show nested quote +
On August 16 2012 10:55 thrawn2112 wrote:
I am focusing on Archrun because none of the other scum reads have had very much merit. He is the person who has given the smallest amount of opinion on anything, which means that up until he does it will be impossible to get a scum read on him. I also looked at other people with low post counts, and Archrun was the only one who had not made a claim about anything. This makes him the most suspicious player out of all the lurkers. All I am doing is asking him to post more, and to share his opinions on what has happened so far. Of course I agree that focusing on scum reads is more important than focusing on who has posted the least, but when, as goodkarma said, the conversation is only happening between a handful of people scum reading is difficult.




Show nested quote +
On August 16 2012 20:07 Shady Sands wrote:And of course you can't defend yourself from the blatant double-teaming you and Ochrow are doing. Anyone who has been in the thread in the past day can tell.


Like I said before, there is nothing I can say to convince you that Ochrow and I are not coordinating our posts. There is really nothing I can say against this claim. You are taking this claim so seriously and are so insistent on it that I am beginning to think you might be scum. You say "Anyone who has been in the thread in the past day can tell," as if there is absolutely no way that everyone won't all come to the same conclusion as you. How convenient.... the part of your argument that you are most adamant about is also the only part of the argument that is impossible for me to disprove.

Show nested quote +
On August 16 2012 20:07 Shady Sands wrote:Finally, on your SK post, why would you make a post that you knew to be a complete waste of time? Answer: scum who needs to look busy... or look cute by feigning ignorance as to whether there is an SK or not (when such information is available on in the OP to this thread.)


I didn't know it was a waste of time, I was asking other people if looking for an SK was a waste of time. I completely dropped the issue after it was obvious that nobody else thought it was worth talking about. It was the 5th post of the entire game, there was nothing else besides standard policy being talked about.


Basically your justification for digging Archrun is this:

Of course I agree that focusing on scum reads is more important than focusing on who has posted the least, but when, as goodkarma said, the conversation is only happening between a handful of people scum reading is difficult.


Translation: "Scumreading is hard! Therefore I'm going to attack whoever hasn't posted much yet, since that's easy."

Except the thing is, you weren't the first one to notice Archrun (that would be your buddy, Ochrow).

Also, at the time you were attacking Archrun, you had failed to notice that:

--JHuyt had basically only made 2 posts (less than Arch) and hadn't contributed anything besides repeating the accusations made by DP and myself at each other and on YH.
--All Golbat had done was accuse you based on the SK post.

You had two easy targets you could have gone after using your own criterion of going after the least-contributing players, but you didn't. Instead you went after Archrun with a simple click of the quote button and a 3 sentence justification.

Finally, you said you looked at 3 other players, then listed 4 people next to Archrun (Ochrow, Golbat, JHuyt, and Stutters). In your original post you said you looked at 4 people in total. So the question is, did you even look at other players or not?
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
August 16 2012 12:12 GMT
#315
Continued from last post:

Here is proof of you and Ochrow coordinating off each other:


On August 16 2012 07:11 thrawn2112 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:
My two cents on Shady:
My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded.

On Solar:
As I originally said I felt that his play was not at all pro-town but, assuming he is telling the truth about the acting and that he didn't just pull it out of his ass, he has really turned around and is very much giving off a townie feel.

On YH:
So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel.

As for any reads I have, in most of the games I've played there has been at least one scum that was just purely a lurker, and as such I get a bit of a scum feeling from Archrun. He has only three posts all only a few sentences, long enough to not be pointed out as one-liners but only just. I guess I also get suspicious of any first post that just focuses on O hai thar I'm a townie yay killing scum. While I know everybody is trying to prove themselves as town I just get bad feelings when the substance of somebody's post is:

On August 15 2012 10:10 Archrun wrote:
As a Townee, I promote any policy that helps us catch scum, but we must back accusation up with evidence(which this policy should provided) and reason.


On top of that in his three posts he doesn't get into what he thinks about who might be scum but is just theorizing or throwing out a soft defense. I may be totally off on here but until he posts a bit more or contributes something of substance I am going to throw out ##FoS Archrun

As per Solar's question I hope this helps, and if there was any curiosity about the reasoning behind my general consensus post, it seemed like a lot of people were in more or less violent agreement over the Solar issue so I wanted to throw out my understanding of events in the hope that it might lead to shorter and/or fewer posts beating that dead horse.


FOS Archrun

Archrun, you have made 3 posts so far and none of them have had anything directly to do with scumhunting.

Can you tell us what you think about shady's claims concerning solar, myself, and newharry?


Why are you just using Ochrow's post as a justification for your own FoS on Arch?

Furthermore, why are you defending Ochrow from Z-Boson on his behalf?

+ Show Spoiler [Chainsaw posts] +
On August 16 2012 08:29 thrawn2112 wrote:
Z-Boson, are you thinking that Ochrow has a read on NH that he isn't explaining?

Show nested quote +
On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:
On YH:
So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel.


What I got from that quote is that ochrow thinks NH could be town. The opening statement of that quote you referenced was "So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him" followed by "he too is giving off a town feel." I don't understand if you are saying Ochrow has a town or scum read on NH.

On August 16 2012 09:04 thrawn2112 wrote:
Yes, NH = YH, my bad.

So to clarify since you didnt actually answer the question, were you saying that ochrow had a town or a scum read on yourharry?

The "as to any motives behind that I can't yet speak" quote is a little ambiguous but I understood it as ochrow being suspicious of shady for shady focusing on solar's first post, but having nothing else to go on he was just leaving it at that, suspicion. What you have accused him of implying is a stretch. I have gone through ochrow's filter and can't a case of him keeping secrets about his read on solar. Could you find/quote/explain that one too?

I do not think your case against Ochrow is very convincing and I believe that you are reading too much into his posts.



On August 16 2012 09:42 thrawn2112 wrote:
I don't think there's evidence of Ochrow hiding information in the "(ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it)" post.

Show nested quote +
On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:

On YH:
So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel.


Ochrow wasn't saying that he had a secret read, he was saying that yourharry claimed to have a secret read on solar, which is here:

Show nested quote +
On August 15 2012 12:24 YourHarry wrote:
Never mind. I am confident Solarsail is town. Move on.

##Unvote


and here:

Show nested quote +
On August 15 2012 13:20 YourHarry wrote:
Shady. I guess there is a small chance that I could be wrong. But if I am right, it is not a good idea to reveal this information. Let's move on for now.


I think you misquoted Ochrow, that "secret read" statement wasn't about himself.



--Why are you and Ochrow both agreeing on the JHuyt read? Both of you think JHuyt is innocent, both you FoS/Vote Arch within 30 minutes of each other, Och cites your posts when he is responding to Z-Boson. This is pretty blatant coordination.
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
August 16 2012 12:16 GMT
#316
Not to mention that both of you guys think Solar and YH are mildly pro-town as well.

Finally, why did you just not even bother to respond to Solar's mega post fingering you as the scummiest reaction to his trolling?

All these things are pointing towards a scum Thrawn.
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
August 16 2012 15:35 GMT
#327
On August 17 2012 00:00 thrawn2112 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 16 2012 19:32 Shady Sands wrote:
Okay, I just posted and I immediately saw Ochrow and Thrawn both trying to get a train on Archrun going (both posting within 30 minutes of each other.) This just reconfirms my theory:

Ochrow and Thrawn are, at the very least, working together, and given how Thrawn's been so WIFOMy and sheepy for the game, I'd reckon they are not masons but scum.


Just to show you how absurd of an argument this is, I'd like to point something out. You said that you saw both ochrow and I, within 30 minutes of each other were "trying to get a train on archrun going." Well, you and Archrun both voted against me within 3 minutes. If I use the reasoning you used to link me with ochrow as both scum, I must also link you with Archrun as scum.


That wasn't the only piece of evidence linking Thrawn to Ochrow. It started when he basically quoted Och's post word for word as your entire justification for starting the FoS on Archrun, and then defended Och from Z-Boson on Och's behalf. The back-to-back posts were just the icing on the cake.

Really shady, your arguments against me have been quite a stretch, and over and over you have ignored my responses to your accusations. I do not think that if you are thoroughly reading my posts that you would still have the belief that I am scum. I will go over our conversation and try to figure out if I have been unclear in my responses to you, and I urge you to go through the conversation to see if you might have missed out on what I was trying to say. If we can't figure this out, then my only options are to think that you are scum and trying to set me up, or that you are town and making weak reads and terrible arguments. I think it is the former so I am going to vote for you. If it is the latter, I won't feel TOO bad about lynching a town player who makes bad arguments.


Generally, threatening someone with a counter-lynch unless they acquiesce to one's defense is a clear scumtell. That being said, I think I've more than covered any defenses Thrawn's offered. The most coherent defenses he offered was simply copy-pasting what he wrote on Archrun again and rehashing your paragraph on Solar. Again, with the Archrun paragraph, there were a whole bunch of other posters such as YH and Solar and JHuyt which you could have gone after, but which he didn't, and regarding Solar, he never again mentioned his accusations against him after responding to them just once (just like his "response" to Golbat).

Pulling up out of the details for a second, the bigger question is why, after the whole Solar/YH/me cases, would he feel that the best way to secure a D1 lynch would be to find lurkers who haven't posted content yet? There were three giant cases floating around that he simply discounted, instead choosing to focus on one case by Ochrow as the entire justification for his initial FoS on Archrun.

Of course, he covered his ass with additional justifications on Archrun after people called you out on it, but it still doesn't mean you can hide the fact that you FoS'd Archrun with 3 sentences of justification. But again, this is not our only charge against him.

When all of Thrawn's behavior is taken together, this is what it looks like:

1) Lots of soft-defenses of multiple players through the first half of D1
2) Jumping on the Archrun train with poor justification
3) Chainsawing a neutral player (Z-Boson) for attacking the player who you used to justify the Archrun FoS (Ochrow)
4) Continuing to FoS Archrun even after he posted content, sheeping Ochrow the same player who you were defending against Z-Boson
5) Coordinating *all* your reads with Ochrow (including the ones on YH and Solar, the two other contentious players in the game)
6) Threatening to OMGUS lynch me if I don't reread your defense and reconsider my accusations against you
7) OMGUS voting me anyhow

Each of these points, alone, would already constitute anti-town behavior; taken together, they are a clear scumtell.

So then Thrawn decides to shift the argument to the filters.

Whatever happened to your campaign to get everyone posting their previous game filters? Based on what you have done since demanding filters from everyone, I don't see a pro-town motive for your request. Your reasoning in asking for them was that having filters can be very useful in getting reads on people's posts that are made in specific circumstances, such as what a player usually acts like when accused of being scum. After asking for everyone's filters, you haven't even brought the subject back up. What was the point of asking in the first place if you are not going to follow through with analysis? If you wanted to view the filters for your own sole benefit, it would have been way easier for you to just find the filters yourself. If you wanted the group to view the filters so that the town can make better reads, then why haven't you provided any analysis of a player's posting within this game to their posting within previous games? I can't figure out why you asked from them in the first place, which leads me to the conclusion that your filter requests were fluff.

##Vote Shady Sands


Someone asked me about the filters earlier, and this is how I responded:

I find filters a good way to figure out how people react to the stress of either being rightfully or wrongfully accused. For example, I tend to look at how someone responds when they're scum and they're being pressured, to then figure out better and more efficient ways to tunnel them and trap them. I think that every townie needs to have this sort of information on all other townies, in order to make this thread as stressful and difficult a place for scum to post as possible.


The filters aren't there for people to quote and make cases out of. The filters are there so that every townie can see how other townies react to rolling red or green in any given situation, so that all townies are on a level playing field when it comes to finding the right pressure points to dismantle and tunnel someone else to a lynch.
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
August 16 2012 15:39 GMT
#328
Basically, Thrawn is stuck now. He's desperately trying to change the subject, and he's OMGUS voting--both are clear scumtells at this point.

Notice that his original case on Archrun has completely gone out the window. His justification on Arch, if we recall, was built on Arch being a non-contributing lurker. Now he thinks that the likeliest scum is me, someone who is pretty much as far from being a lurker as one can get... just because he thinks I am wrongly accusing him.
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
August 16 2012 15:43 GMT
#329
EBWOP: I tried to change my last two posts from second-person, addressing Thrawn directly, into a 3rd-person tone addressing the town. Evidently I messed up. Please read every mention of "you" or "your" as referring to "Thrawn". Thanks
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
August 16 2012 16:29 GMT
#334
On August 17 2012 01:05 DarthPunk wrote:
still trawling through the thread. It seems to be a lot more difficult to read than XXII.



Show nested quote +
On August 16 2012 19:42 Shady Sands wrote:
I am going to say this again very clearly:

## Vote Thrawn2112, ## FoS Ochrow

Everyone just do it.


Yeah shady. Any Town Cred you had just went flying out the window. To be honest I am having trouble following the narrative of the thread right now (perhaps I am just tired.) but this is a very anti-town post.

Your case on thrawn2112 was OK. But attempting to stifle any further discussion and demanding everyone to sheep your reads (which is ironic because this is one of the things you are accusing these people of doing.) Is just flat out ridiculous.

I want some clarity on what your case is.

But the crux of the matter is this correct?
Show nested quote +
On August 16 2012 20:07 Shady Sands wrote:

But the issue with Archrun is you didn't compare him at all to the other lurkers. Nope. You just went ahead and joined in on Ochrow's accusation of Archrun without even offering any of your own analysis to back it up. Who were those other 3 people who had posted 4 times or less? Can you tell me who you checked?

And of course you can't defend yourself from the blatant double-teaming you and Ochrow are doing. Anyone who has been in the thread in the past day can tell.


You may have already clarified your case and I have not yet got to it. If so could you just make a brief summary of your case.


Here's the summary of the Thrawn case:
1) Lots of soft-defenses of multiple players through the first half of D1
2) Jumping on the Archrun train with poor justification ("non-contributing lurker")
3) Chainsawing a neutral player (Z-Boson) for attacking the player who he used to justify the Archrun FoS (Ochrow)
4) Continuing to FoS Archrun even after he posted content, sheeping Ochrow, the same player who he was defending against Z-Boson
5) Coordinating *all* his reads with Ochrow (including the ones on YH and Solar, the two other contentious players in the game)
6) Threatening to OMGUS lynch me if I don't reread his defense and reconsider my accusations against him (based off the exact opposite justifications that he used to accuse Archrun)
7) OMGUS voting me anyhow



Also, I was saying that I wanted town to lynch Thrawn. In no way should you interpret my post as telling people to stop thinking for themselves and just follow me.
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
August 16 2012 16:31 GMT
#335
In addition to Thrawn, I'm open to a D1 lynch on Ochrow, or JHuyt if that's what it takes to defeat a no-lynch.

Also, GoodKarma, where's your read on the whole discussion about Thrawn? You posted about my call to lynch, and then disappeared.
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
August 17 2012 00:07 GMT
#435
Welp, I spend a day focused on work, and what happens? Nice job sheeping scum town. Thought you guys were better than this.
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
August 17 2012 00:07 GMT
#436
GG <3
Что?
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