EPTI will not be banned in the first game Bluelightz is hosting
I was going to wait for GMarshal's game until I saw slOosh. We always have the most interesting games together
Dwarf Fortress Mini Mafia
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
I will not be banned in the first game Bluelightz is hosting I was going to wait for GMarshal's game until I saw slOosh. We always have the most interesting games together | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
| ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
I agree with scib that a double lynch today would not be ideal, too little information. However, I think we should consider using double lynches on day2-3 to weed out lurkers quickly. It feels like in all my past games there has been at least 1 mafia lurking among them but by the time you get to day3-4 people are so able to create massive convincing cases against active players that you will never get a lynch on them until mylo or lylo. For those of you who haven't played with me before, my games are easy to find as this is pretty much the only part of TL I post in. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
- The two things that have caught my attention so far are prplz first post + Show Spoiler + On August 08 2012 05:38 prplhz wrote: Hey didn't read thread yet can anybody tell me who is scum? He posts without reading, isn't relevant, sarcastic, and thumbs his nose at town. This just rubs me the wrong way. and Costos Luna's first two posts are pointing out a contradiction that isn't a contradiction and telling people to stop talking about a day1 double lynch, which no one was doing. - slOosh! you are the only absent member of our town, speak up! - P.S. Could someone explain the innocent child thing to me? I looked up the term on mafiascumwiki and it didn't seem to apply to this game. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
Although scrib makes good points against Forumite I don't find myself convinced. The motive I read behind Forumite's inconsistencies and subsequent posts is an attempt to get things going and then trying to both be transparent and move the thread forward. I completely agree that the way he has handled himself so far has been bad, but both town and scum can play badly. What matters is the motivation behind the actions. I feel like his motivation is more likely to be town than scum at the moment. I agree with CL's opinion of Mord. I see Mord's focus on the VT claim that wasn't really a VT claim and make note of how that whole exchange gained the town exactly zilch and wasted our time. His first and last posts also bother me. His first post only stands out because of the end. He ends his post with a strong statement about how he is going to go scum hunting. What comes of that? 1 Question to CL. Then Mord completely sidetracks to the "VT claim" thing. Then the only other thing we get from him is the very lackluster response to Hiro about Forumite. It reads as very likely to be scum to me. prplhz is looking worse and worse in my eyes because of his lack of quality early and his lurking now. I don't really have anything new to bring against him as he hasn't written anything new. But his silence is condemning, his apparent desire to fly under the radar while everyone is focusing on Shiao/Mord/Forum. He needs to be kept in the spotlight with all our other suspects and he has earned my vote. ##Vote: prplhz | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On August 09 2012 03:28 sciberbia wrote: + Show Spoiler + On August 09 2012 02:57 DoYouHas wrote: Currently I am basing my reads as much on intuition as on logic. Although scrib makes good points against Forumite I don't find myself convinced. The motive I read behind Forumite's inconsistencies and subsequent posts is an attempt to get things going and then trying to both be transparent and move the thread forward. I completely agree that the way he has handled himself so far has been bad, but both town and scum can play badly. What matters is the motivation behind the actions. I feel like his motivation is more likely to be town than scum at the moment. I agree with CL's opinion of Mord. I see Mord's focus on the VT claim that wasn't really a VT claim and make note of how that whole exchange gained the town exactly zilch and wasted our time. His first and last posts also bother me. His first post only stands out because of the end. He ends his post with a strong statement about how he is going to go scum hunting. What comes of that? 1 Question to CL. Then Mord completely sidetracks to the "VT claim" thing. Then the only other thing we get from him is the very lackluster response to Hiro about Forumite. It reads as very likely to be scum to me. prplhz is looking worse and worse in my eyes because of his lack of quality early and his lurking now. I don't really have anything new to bring against him as he hasn't written anything new. But his silence is condemning, his apparent desire to fly under the radar while everyone is focusing on Shiao/Mord/Forum. He needs to be kept in the spotlight with all our other suspects and he has earned my vote. ##Vote: prplhz This post of DoYouHas makes me suspicious of him. 1) Perhaps I am biased, but I don't like his reasons for soft defending Forumite. I don't know how announcing a read but keeping it to yourself is 'transparent' and 'trying to move the thread forward'. His stance on Forumite seems wishy/washy and I'm not a fan. 2) He says that Mordanis reads as 'very likely scum', but then he votes prplhz for lurking? wtf? If you think somebody is very likely scum, and they already have two votes on them, you as a townie should add your vote, not vote for a lurker to 'keep him in the spotlight'. FoS DoYouHas 1) I found Forumite's initial suspicion of Shiao to be extremely transparent, honestly, what possible reasons could he have had that early in the game? Either he picked Shiao arbitrarily for early pressure as a conversation starter or he picked up on something in Shiao's initial posts. And those were the explanations he gave us. The timings of his explanations were a bit off and his pandering to more well known players came off badly, but lets look at the rest of his filter. He has been defending himself (how he handles this is the heart of your case I believe scrib). But he also is addressing most of the topics that have been brought up, he is asking players questions, and he is making his stances known. That moves the thread forward. My stance isn't wishy-washy, it was quite clear. He mishandled some of his play but I feel his motivation is more likely to be town. 2) You are being short sighted and misrepresenting my reasons for voting prplz. His lurking is only a 4th of why I voted him, even though it is an important 4th.
2. As mentioned by 1-2 people, he is not playing into his town meta. 3. He is lurking, which hurts town and is worse because he had potential to help lead town. 4. I needed to get this vote out there now because prplhz was getting pushed out of consideration for the lynch, which is wrong. I have more reasons for voting prplhz than I do Mord right now, and my opinion is only reenforced as time goes by without prplhz contributing. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On August 09 2012 05:23 sciberbia wrote: @DYH Please answer the following question for me: who do you think is more likely to be scum: Mordanis or prplhz? I'm not asking about who you have more reasons for voting for, or who you want to keep in the spotlight. If you had to bet your life savings right now on who is scum, who would you bet on? At the time of your asking my answer would definitely have been prplhz. After chewing over their more recent posts for a while I still would bet on prplhz over Mord. There are a few things in the way Mord has been posting that makes me want to keep him around. They are shown well in his latest post. That is a willingness to be wrong/admit mistakes and a seemingly genuine frustration with the passivity of the thread. prplhz on the other hand hasn't done much to dissuade me from my read on him. His posts since coming back are all focused on pushing Forumite. And while I will admit that the reason he gives for his vote isn't a bad one, the first thing I thought was "of course he went after Forumite, the easy target and the safe bandwagon". Which is kind of ironic to me because he sites himself as the victim of being an easy target in that very same post. I am uncomfortable lynching Forumite, as I previously said, I just don't read mafia motivations behind his posts. I have found a few reasons to keep Mord around at least for today. I just don't have the same kind of hesitation in voting prplhz, so that is where my vote is staying unless something drastic changes. @ scrib - What in Forumite's mistakes do you see as hiding mafia motivations? - I am going to be around for the next ~30 minutes. I will also try to wake up and be around an hour before the deadline. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
prplhz(5): DYH, Marvel, Forumite, Keirathi, risk.nuke Forumite(5): Scib, slOosh, prplhz, Hiropro, Shiaopi Mordanis(1): CL Marvel(1): Mordanis Unless people's opinions have completely changed since the beginning of today, we are about to do exactly what none of us wanted, a day 1 double lynch. This is actually the ideal scenario because they both have their votes tied up on each other, but that is beside the point. It is not ok to risk being at 6-3 at the start of day 2 based on just the limited information of today. That is why you need to switch Mord, we ARE in a double lynch scenario, and it actually has potential of going through. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
@Hiropro - What are your thoughts on Shiao? on marv? Who on the Forumite wagon looks most suspicious to you? on the prplhz wagon? @prplhz - What are your thoughts on Keirathi? @Mordanis - Has your stance on marv changed at all? @slOosh - With Forumite flipped townie where do you stand now? | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
However, I do agree some of your points and who you are suspicious of. The fact that it took vote switching instead of a clear majority to lynch Forumite increases the chance that prplhz is scum and that his scumbuddies manipulated the vote. That would make Hiro, Shiao, and Mord the suspicious parties day1. This is convienent as those are the people I have been most suspicious of after prplhz already. I'm going to withold my vote for now. I need to do some more filter digging and put together an actual case before I commit to pushing someone. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
CL's voteswitch was unique from the others in a very specific way. He let you pick for him Mord. On August 09 2012 23:27 Custos Luna wrote: If it is necessary, I will switch my vote from Mord to Forumite to avoid the double lynch depending on what is said in the next half hour. However, Mord, you need to decide. Forumite or prplhz. Make your choice. Do so before I am required to or the wrath of the moon will fall upon you. On August 09 2012 23:36 Custos Luna wrote: Trying to decide the best course of action. You're right, I want to get my vote on a real candidate. Scenarios running through my head: -I vote Forumite: Mord can force the double lynch. If both Forumite and prplhz are town, this puts us at 6v3 for tomorrow, something I'd really like to avoid. -I wait for Mord to vote for a real candidate: causes him to choose and I can avoid the double lynch. If one of prpl and Forumite are scum, the double lynch benefits us. However, I'm still not entirely convinced and I'm trying to figure out how to give us the best chance into this lynch. He implies multiple times that voting Forumite is what he wants to do, so why not actually do it? His reason is that he fears that Mord will force the double lynch if he votes first. But is this a rational fear? no. If Mord is town then he would realize that everyone does not want a double lynch day1 and would not cause one. He probably would have sat on marv and been content that CL took the decision out of his hands. If Mord is scum then he would realize that the town is going to lynch him day2 if he forces a last minute double lynch and that a 2 for 1 trade isn't bad for town day1. Neither alignment would have forced that double lynch in Mord's position. So why would CL put Mord (someone he is supposed to believe is scum, drastically increasing the chance of a mislynch) firmly in the driver's seat of yesterday's lynch? I can think of only one answer: CL knew that either choice would end in a townie flip and did not want to be tied to the blame for it. The language he uses leading up to the lynch only strengthens my belief that this is the case. + Show Spoiler + On August 09 2012 23:27 Custos Luna wrote: Firm stance on wanting to switch to Forum, immediately hands reins over to Mord to choose Forum or prplhz.EBWOP: DYH, looking back, that does appear to be fairly accurate. I had thought more people unvoted off prplhz and onto Forumite. If it is necessary, I will switch my vote from Mord to Forumite to avoid the double lynch depending on what is said in the next half hour. However, Mord, you need to decide. Forumite or prplhz. Make your choice. Do so before I am required to or the wrath of the moon will fall upon you. + Show Spoiler + On August 09 2012 23:36 Custos Luna wrote: Begins to distance himself from a Forumite lynch and even entertains double lynching.If one of prpl and Forumite are scum, the double lynch benefits us. However, I'm still not entirely convinced and I'm trying to figure out how to give us the best chance into this lynch. + Show Spoiler [Important One] + On August 09 2012 23:54 Custos Luna wrote: This is a very important post tone-wise. It starts with a mischievous tone with the bantering line of "I would never!". This bantering statement tells me that CL just relaxed a bit, or even is feeling a bit victorious. This is immediately is followed by an even bigger distancing statement, "Still unsure on Forumite. But I'm less sure on prpl". Then his 'moon' closing is even a bit off of the normal. Up until this point the moon comments by CL have been either normal signoffs or threats. This one is different, it reads to me like a self satisfied dig at Mord, which seems out of place until I fit it to my theory.I would never! Still unsure on Forumite. But I'm less sure on prpl, and I want to pad some security against a last minute swap/double lynch. Therefore: ##unvote Mordanis ##vote Forumite The moon is shocked that Mord has actually committed to something. Custos Luna is SCUM ##Vote: Custos Luna | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On August 11 2012 16:10 Mordanis wrote: DYH: Your first post indicating that the people who switched their votes were suspicious was based on prplhz being scum. Your accusation of CL assumes that prplhz is town. So how are you leaning right now? Right now CL is my best read. And if he is scum then chances are both yourself and prplhz are town. This isn't based on your play, but rather that I don't think that CL would have gone through that song and dance with a scumbuddy and he wouldn't have given a townie the option of killing his scumbuddy. Those are my assumptions right now, but it is pointless to work off them until I know I'm right about CL. @scib - You seem overly ready to let CL off the hook for his play that is not only bad, but implies knowledge that only scum would have. You want to focus on the people who aren't writing anything. I want to focus on the person I've caught being scummy. So unless CL has a damn good reason for his actions, I'm sticking with my vote. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
| ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
I can't say with absolute certainty about everyone else, but I know that I would absolutely lynch someone who caused the double lynch of 2 townies AND did it with a last minute vote switch. I would tunnel such a person into the ground. And maybe this is me having taken the temperature of the town incorrectly, but I don't think I would be the only one by a long shot. Oh, and then there is this: On August 08 2012 03:34 Mordanis wrote: Which, on top of everything else, would easily be enough to bury Mord if he double lynched and missed scum.Personally, I haven't had too much time to think about when/how to use the double lynch mechanic, but I can say that in my experience it happens fairly often that neither candidate up for lynching D1 is scum, and going from 9 town 3 scum D1 to 6 town 3 scum D2 would be pretty brutal. In short, I am strongly against D1 multi-lynching unless something very convincing happens to change my mind. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
This may not have been explicit in your defense, but it is there, and I came to agree. If I'm going to push CL all the way to the deadline, I need to make a case using his whole filter, not just one terrible misstep. As for a double lynch today, I'm against it. I agree that it would increase our chances of hitting scum. I just don't see us agreeing on 2 candidates and getting the votes organized in time. Double lynch is a great tool, but we are playing with fire. If we don't have a good handle on the votes a good while before the deadline it is just too big a risk. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
| ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
| ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On August 12 2012 12:47 sciberbia wrote: @DYH Have you thought any more about prplhz and CL? How likely do you think each of them is to be scum? Will you be leaving your vote on CL or are you open to switching? Yes, I am willing to switch to prplhz. I did not find as much supporting evidence in CL's filter as I was hoping to. HOWEVER, right now, I am demanding to know who CL actually is. I am seriously frustrated knowing that he is a vet but I can't look into his past games. Is it jcarlsoniv? is that what that whole thing that got edited out was about? Prplhz really hasn't done anything to ease my suspicions of him from day1, I just loathe backing off my own case in favor of someone else wagon. I still lean slightly scum on CL, but that is the beauty of a prplhz lynch. If prplhz flips town then I'll be pretty confident I'm right about CL, if he flips scum then we get even more information because of how much he was discussed day1 (and I'll know scib is probably right about CL's actions). Win-win for me. And don't yell at me for lynching for information slOosh. prplhz is plenty scummy in his own right. It is just an added benefit that I get extra information from a prplhz flip. ##Unvote ##Vote: prplhz | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On August 12 2012 14:09 Keirathi wrote: Lol. Isn't that the whole point of playing on a smurf account to begin with? Either to 1) escape your meta so you can try different things, or 2) not have people biased against you just because of who you are.  That is the price you pay for being a vet, you gain skill and experience but you also build a meta. And it isn't like CL is playing some off the wall style or anything, why be afraid of his meta? | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
| ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
gg scib. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
| ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
First off, what is this crap: On August 14 2012 02:22 Custos Luna wrote: How convenient for the only one to take the time to defend me to die D= Scib was the first (and really only) person to step up and make a case in my defense. He is now dead because of this. Mord is the only active player left who I have been consistently targeting, calling him out as the remaining scum member. Are you really this paranoid/narcissistic to believe that scib getting killed was all about you? It couldn't have been because he was the town leader, the towniest player, or for any of the other numerous reads he had over the course of the game? This is the second time you have done something like this. It is WIFOM and what is worse, this time you are using it in your case against Mord. Add on top of that all the problems I have had with your play so far this game. My initial dislike of CL's first 2 posts. My case against CL. (My theory about prplhz and Forumite both being town was proved wrong, but that doesn't change that CL handed his scum read control of the lynch. Possibly just a mistake, but still bad.) Then risk.nuke's case had 2 things in it that caught my attention. The first is that it is true that CL seemed overly cautious and afraid of firmly taking a side between Forumite and prplhz, even before I pointed out they were tied in votes. Which brings me to CL's morning evaluation. Right here we get CL's opinion that prplhz is a worse lynch than Forumite. But more importantly, look at the function of this post. It attacks the prplhz wagon, proposes Mord as an alternative, and leaves the Forumite wagon fairly untouched, bolstering it if anything. CL has already admitted to a wrong read on prplhz, but that doesn't change that this post fits neatly into scum agenda. For those first 3 reasons I gave, I'm not going to vote CL(yet), I want a response and some debate before I make my final decision. @slOosh & Mord - If you actually are looking to push Shiaopi you need more than 1 contradiction and 1 bad case, those have been everywhere this game. If that was all it took to lynch someone Mord would already be dead. I know that slOosh at least is capable of much better case building than what I just read. Are we all content with HiroPro sitting on the sidelines through N3? He was a top scum connection if prplhz flipped mafia, but now that he has the possibility of being modkilled you all seem content to forget about him. @ Keirathi What are you thinking right now? Which of the 3 wagons (CL, Mord, Shiaopi) has most merit to you? | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
| ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
##Vote: risk.nuke | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
What you SHOULD have done is made note of the possibility and attacked anyone who came after you using the very same WIFOM reasoning we are complaining about you using. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
We can't afford this town's general activity level in LYLO. I'm going to be stepping it up today, please do the same. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
| ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
As for your case slOosh, it has merit. I'll elaborate later, busy atm. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
So, if they are not the scum team, that means that one of CL and slOosh is scum. Which makes this lynch on Shiaopi much more likely to be a mislynch. If this line of thinking is accurate then 2/3 of slOosh, CL, and Mord are scum. This is what I want discussed. How likely is a Mord/shiaopi scum team? Because if it isn't likely, then both of you are on the wrong person. I can see the possibility that they have been opposing each other but not actually looking to get each other killed all game for just such a situation as this. But the level of play this game has been pretty low, so I would be surprised if they committed themselves to something like that so early. Thoughts? | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
It might not be as unlikely as I thought, and it definitely fits my reads. After taking a broader view I don't find that CL's bad play necessarily = scummy play, and I would lynch either shiaopi or Mord before him. And I feel like slOosh has been genuinely scum hunting. ##Vote: ShiaoPi | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
| ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
Sorry for fostering the inactivity this game. I was playing way outside my town meta most of the time and the inactivity helped me hide it. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
| ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
Scum QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/48/H/ryeZJk6AxwZ | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
Something that I realized might give me away later was the final vote count from day 1. In a situation where votes are on 2 main candidates, mafia almost always split their vote between them. In this case it was only slightly less likely because prplhz was scum so all scum 'might' have piled onto Forumite. But still, as town, I would have held to the vote splitting theory. Here is where it gets a bit tricky. prplhz(5): DYH, After the hit on Keirathi, I was the only one from the original prplhz wagon left alive. All the others were townie. To me, this would have been a major red flag. But you got to give me a little credit for those blue snipes. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
| ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
Am I correct in saying what kept people from suspecting me was that case and the fact that I almost got prplhz killed day1? That was an accident btw. I asked him if I could go after him. He said bring it on. Then he almost didn't defend himself. All he had to do was post and my case against him would have been so easy to back off of. But then he didn't start posting and I was stuck bussing him. E: I really lucked out with having slOosh on my team. He is the person I have played the most with, and we have butted heads a few times. He would have called me out on my meta day 1. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
Scib hit: We hit you because you were the biggest threat. Nobody was on the right track, but night 2 was going to be our only real chance to kill you (because we figured you were protected N1). The only person with enough influence and momentum to get the thread out of the quagmire it had become was you. And if you happened to make a case against either me or slOosh, or even if you went after someone we didn't want lynched, you had too much town cred to be argued against safely. I had hoped that the mislynch of Forumite would slow you down and keep you from taking control but that wasn't the case. Keirathi hit: You were the only townie left in the game who seemed like you could still be objective with your scum hunting. Hence, the only real threat left. Also, the carelessness of CL and Mord's play along with how they participated in the blue discussion at the beginning had me cross them off the list of possible docs. (At the end of day 1 my blue reads were Marv for watcher, shiaopi/Keirathi/risk for doc.) Shiaopi I figured was less likely that Keirathi because he was not as cautious or as invested. Keirathi was holding himself apart from most of the cases and drama in the thread, coming in with a few self assured comments and a vote here and there. He was clearly invested in keeping the town moving forward, but also avoided drawing attention to himself. After risk died, Keirathi was the clear choice. P.S. You will note that a lot of this isn't in the mafia QT. These were my reasons for each hit, (and I had a pretty large say in it) whether or not I needed to use them to convince slOosh/prplhz. | ||
| ||
