Newbie Mini Mafia XXIII
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mkfuba07
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mkfuba07
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mkfuba07
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On August 04 2012 02:10 marvellosity wrote: wtf! since when am I mean? :oooo I can't remember you ever not being mean :O | ||
mkfuba07
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On August 04 2012 12:47 Golbat wrote: I promise not to get lynched d1 guise t.t Haha. From what I can tell, the bests thing to do are post consistently (both time and topic), back up your claims with reasoning, and always be furthering the town's goals (if you're actually town).Oh, and have fun. I guess you can add fun to the list I'm excited to try my hand at forum mafia, since irl mafia seems to go too quickly to actually think about anything that's going on. But now I should sleep. I'm busy from 11-12 CST, but I'll try to post something before then if I'm awake/available. | ||
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Just got back from dinner, so I'm going to go through the posts so far and get back to you with my thoughts. | ||
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Blindly doing anything is a poor decision. If we're going to catch the correct people, it has to be based on reasoning and not the potential threat of a lurker. By the end of D1, we should have some read on most of the posters. It's much smarter to make a comparatively informed decision regarding someone we have interacted with than a random selection from those who have said very little. I think policy lynchings (or safeties) are a bad idea in general. It not only limits the amount of logical reasoning involved, but it gives scum the means of avoiding suspicion, hiding in the holes we've created for them. Force them to defend themselves and we'll force information out of them. On August 06 2012 10:07 Dandel Ion wrote: Scumslip or most obvious scumslip? Discuss. I think it's best if we avoid short claims like this without elaboration. Is the scumslip supposed to be that they both defended Golbat when Lvdr spread incorrect information? Or is it the spreading of information that is questionable? I could see arguments for both. Though it may be my inexperience showing a bit, this post seemed vague and despite your request for discussion only led to my confusion. Why call for discussion and then not clarify your own position? In this situation, Golbat seems to be simply defending himself from an accusation while Hapahauli was correcting misinformation. As for Lvdr, I don't think a mistake like this is enough to peg him as scum. If he makes a similarly misinformed statement later it would arouse my suspicions, but for now I'm considering him just about equal with everyone else. | ||
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On August 06 2012 13:42 Hapahauli wrote: While I agree that blind policy lynching in its purest form is bad (i.e. lynching someone ONLY because they're lurking), I believe policy can be a good guideline to prevent mislynch. For example, given two equally "suspicious" players (one active and one "lurky"), I would be much more inclined to lynch the lurker, on the basis that in newbie games, active mafia are a rarity. Newbie mafia are usually incredibly lurky - especially Day 1 when they are still figuring out how to post. If they're both equally scummy, then wouldn't there be an equal chance of each being mafia? In that case wouldn't we gain more information from the flip of an active player than an inactive one? Also, an anti-lurker policy doesn't let mafia hide - it forces them to post and remain in the open. When mafia are forced to be active/scum-hunt, it is near impossible for them not to reveal their intentions. As a result, an anti-lurker policy can only be good for town (as long as it's not taken to logical extremes of course). I should have been more clear with this part. It was more in response to your assertion that we should not lynch highly active members on the first day, as well as a fear that people would prioritize lurking over logic. As I said above, I don't think that if two people are equally scummy, then we should lynch the one that we know the least about. This throws away the potential information that could be gained from the flip. I'm absolutely not against pressuring each other, in fact I welcome it, but when the time to vote comes we should commit to reason over lurkiness. | ||
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On August 06 2012 16:47 YourHarry wrote: Policy lynching is not blind. It is a tested method to encourage discussion and is generally a pro-town strategy. This is different from lynching anyone who forgets to post one day. Further, if we allow lurking - and by allowing them to live, we are allowing them to lurk - there cannot be much "reasoning" to basis your "catching the correct people" on. On the contrary, policy lynching forces people to post. And with posts, there can be discussions and logical reasoning. With lurking, these things come by scarcely. Policy lynching is not a mean to an end. It is a strategy to enrich resources that townies can use. And I experienced first hand that the experienced player(s) support policy lynching lurkers. In the long run, it can be argued that this is also beneficial to the TL mafia community as a whole. Steer the TL mafia culture, where players are expected to actively participate. Your rest of the posts... there are way too many conditionals and wishy washy stuff. You see arguments for boht. You think your inexperience may be what's causing you to be wrong in your judgment. All to end in a wishy washy conclusiong - Lvdr is just as scummy as everyone else. Vote mkfuba I'm genuinely surprised that you found enough of concern in this post to instantly vote for me. I hope my previous post was enough to clarify my policy lynch position. I vote based on logical conclusions from the information I've gathered, not from standards of activity. I believe that there will be more than enough discussion D1 to make an informed vote, and based on the flip we will be able to carry out more discussion. That should cover everything that I intended to say about policy. Everything in the third nested quote looks reasonable to me. I asked that we actually support our own claims instead of asking others to support them for us. I stated that the claim was vague, and provided a few ways in which it could be interpreted. I then stated that both possibilities could be (weakly) supported, and therefore I could not determine what his claim actually was. I then attempted a bit of discussion regarding the situation. Since I found the case to be vague, I stated my observations for each of the possibilities. There is one conditional, and that is: if Lvdr provides another easy-to-refute statement, then he gets an FoS. If anything is wishy-washy, it's because there is not enough evidence to prove anything, which was my conclusion. Oh, and I don't believe myself to be in any way "wrong in my judgement." I find it reasonable that I point my FoS at YourHarry for voting for someone within 12 hours of the game starting, after a single post, and with contrived evidence. (I hope it's alright that I modified his post in my quote so that it was correctly formatted. This made it much easier to read.) | ||
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On August 06 2012 22:42 Dandel Ion wrote: Thank you for that.. The rest of your post was fluff and OMGUS stuff, but at least I could read YourHarry's post. I don't feel that it was fluff since my single post had been misinterpreted and used to start a case against me. I clarified my post so that others wouldn't misinterpret it similarly. I felt that most of what I said in that response was self-explanatory, but since YH evidently didn't think so, I saw the need to basically repeat myself. I suppose what I mean to say is that normally I would see my post as fluff, but in this case it was necessary as a response to accusations. I also don't consider it to be OMGUS, as I would have had the same suspicions were it not me he was voting for. I would be surprised if everyone else didn't become a bit suspicious of his haste in voting. I didn't vote for him, which I think is an action that would be just as hasty as his own, but I did want to voice what I saw. What was your read on him following that post? Following Prom's explanation of YH's behavior in the past, I'm left more confused than suspicious, but I'm not quite ready to drop my FoS. | ||
mkfuba07
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Alright, so I've been looking through the filters and something struck me as odd. Promethelax has become a pretty frequent poster, but if you look at what he's actually contributed, it's pretty limited. He spends much of his time talking about meta and previous games, even though the conclusions he draws from them don't actually say much. + Show Spoiler + On August 07 2012 03:00 Promethelax wrote: okay that is what I thought. You are completely ass backwards on this one. XIX and XXI the most active mafia in both of those were Goon, not GF. I do not feel that the role someone gets should effect their play. Most players have a general meta and they play to it whether blue, green or red. (Some have specific metas to each alignment). i.e. If I were to role a blue I would have said the same things I have said although I am in fact a VT. Also the goal of being a really pro-town player as scum is to never get a dt check on you, be so clearly town that checking you would be a waste of a night check. He says that a sound strategy the mafia might be employing is "completely ass backwards" because it didn't occur in two previous games, and then he carries on with more meta knowledge. + Show Spoiler + On August 07 2012 02:31 Promethelax wrote: I'd like to bring attention to this post: it is neither a scum or a town tell but if you promise to make reads you had better do it. Golbat I want to hear what you think about people and I will be happy to vote you if you do not provide these cases, I know irl things can get in the way so I don't expect them at this moment but I do expect them within this day. goodluck on your tuition moneys. So harry, though I think your play seems scummy I am going to base my read off of your meta, prove me right and play a pro-townrole here. 1. True! 2. Did you read that game? I had town by the nose by virtue of not lurking. 3. No! Bad YourHarry, lynching a townie is always bad. Lynching a bad townie hurts town because we lose a townie. He mentions many actions that are considered pro-town, gives advice for appearing pro-town, and states as a strength "posting in an active and pro-town manner." When not giving meta advice, his posts are filled with instructions for how to be a good townie. This isn't an issue on its own, but he then avoids contributing to the discussion, either simply agreeing/disagreeing with people or telling them he'll look into it. His only case is one against Golbat based on something he admits is not a scum tell. He votes for Golbat despite stating that he feels that YH's play is scummy, and this is after he states that it's bad to lynch townies no matter what. His greatest focus seems to be his assurance that YH is innocent despite using what he admits is a confusing, scummy playstyle. He says that this is consistent with YH's town playstyle, so it is unlikely that he is scum. Again, he is basing his reasoning on meta knowledge. Furthermore, his conclusion is in direct conflict with some of the other meta knowledge he provided: that people tend to behave similarly no matter their role(first spoiler). You can't claim that players' actions are generally uniform across all roles and then claim that someone's actions denote him as a member of a certain faction. In short, I see many contradictions within Prom's posts, and little contribution despite appearing to contribute heavily. He is posting frequently without giving away any information, which is a scum trait. This leads me to believe that he is scum. ##FoS: Promethelax | ||
mkfuba07
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I was really confused when you mentioned Promethelax's thoughts on Golbat's "anti-town behaviour", so I went back through his filter again. You're absolutely right, and I'm not sure how I missed the majority of that post. + Show Spoiler + On August 07 2012 10:01 Promethelax wrote: Though Harry has played so far with his pants squarely atop his head I feel that this is totally in line with his town meta, essentially I find his posting scummy and will be watching him but am hesitant to vote into him because his play is simply bad and, as any coach will tell you, bad play is a dumb-tell not a scum tell. The player I have the most concern with right now is Golbat, as I said earlier making a promise and not following through is an anti-town behavior. Not simply bad play but anti-town. This allows for a player to get off the hook of suspicion because they have promised to do work to help town but also keeps them from having to put their reads into the thread which allows a scum player to stay neutral about people until they can let a townie make the case. Until he posts his 'cases' my ##Vote will be on Golbat In my skimming I must have filled in the second paragraph with the information from his previous post where he said that it was "neither a scum or a town tell." At that point I was feeling so clever that I'd discovered this "brilliant new case" that I didn't take the time to make sure I had the facts straight. Confirmation biases abound! Sorry for misrepresenting you Prom. I'll also have to keep in mind that just because something can be considered scummy behaviour doesn't mean that it is. That being said, I would like to see Prom's thoughts more when he responds to other peoples' posts. It feels to me like you are trying to encourage discussion, but are letting others do the talking for the most part. When I finally read it, your reasoning for Golbat was great, and I'd like to read more. I have a quick question: In general is it better to spoiler quotes or leave them visible? I've seen both, so I'm not sure of the protocol. | ||
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My top pick at the moment is iamperfection. On top of what others have stated, I have one thing to add. To iamperfection: If you came into this game knowing what you do about YourHarry's behaviour, and you had the intention to lynch him if he behaved the same way again, then why would you wait until after you receive your role to state that? You admit that you will vote for him based on this reasoning despite the fact that there is far more evidence in game for other players. Your defense seems like an afterthought, using his meta as a means of implicating him despite a lack of in game evidence. You tell him that you'll be suspicious if he posts the way he always posts, and then when he does it you say he's should be lynched. This tactic doesn't even require a slip on YH's part, it simply requires him to behave like himself. While I'm not sure that his methods are the best, and I was quite suspicious of him early game, he does seem to have generated a lot of discussion, which is certainly a pro-town action, and has drawn a lot of attention to himself. My second pick is Golbat. In addition to Prom's case, I have some questions. Drunk. If I attempted it, it would not be pretty. Syn is the person i'm looking at the most, so I don't see a need to push it out right now. I may have gotten a bit ahead of myself with 2-3 cases in 8 hours so early in the game. it'll get here when it gets here. I'd like some clarification on most of what you've said here. When you say you've gotten ahead of yourself, do you mean that you didn't actually have cases against that many people? If so, why did you say you did? Or have you changed your mind regarding your suspicions? I feel that after almost a full day we at least need to see your previous suspicions and why you no longer feel that way, or you have just been pulling us along. And tautology aside, 24 hours is more than enough time to have at least stated your cases and given a few of your reads, especially when you said you'd provide them (probably) in 8. Third on my list is Synystyr. While the later reads on him seem valid to me, I think the one that started the case against him was an overreaction (that syn was trying to imply that Hapahauli was suspicious). It was an extremely difficult post for me to understand to begin with, and I see the rest of his posts as attempts to both clear the suspicion from him as well as begin some (admittedly poorly thought out) reads to begin discussion. It may be because I did the exact same thing (defended myself against YH's vote, and proceeded to make a poorly considered case against Prom), but at the moment I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. I think Dandel lon's demand that he post well thought out reads on players he finds most suspicious is a good idea, and will definitely sway my vote. My suspicion is there, but I don't think there's enough to go by to place him higher on my list. Finally, my last read is on Lvdr. On this I feel like there's little to say other than I agree with Hapahauli's analysis. Lvdr has been the second most active poster (by rough estimation on my part) and has provided some really good insight (pointing out that Syn used fluff to apologize for fluff, and his addition to Shady's case against Syn struck me as reasonable and convincing reads). It would take a lot more convincing to get me to vote for Lvdr D1. | ||
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On August 08 2012 02:37 Hapahauli wrote: @mkfuba - you scumslipped harrrrrrd here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=15#300 @ Shady - if Synyster didn't flip red, you would've looked awful from the case you pushed @ YourHarry - you just blew my mind lol Would you mind explaining my slip(s) to me? I felt that each of my reads was acceptable given the concerns I presented, so I would guess that the slip was part of the concerns themselves. I thought it was pretty well constructed | ||
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If you ask people to post their top scum read, and then say why they're more scummy than the others, I'm going to have to post my reads on my top few in order to show why I chose the top one. | ||
mkfuba07
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I actually had no idea who we were going to kill. We didn't really discuss it much yet. I think it's safer to make that decision after the lynch and flip. | ||
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I'd also like to know if we can see the QTs for obs and mafia. I'd like to see what outsiders though. | ||
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On August 08 2012 03:02 TolEranceNA wrote: I sincerely apologize for my lack of activity in the past 24 hours, as for now, i will try my hardest to start being a useful and active town member. If you feel that I am lynch worthy, please share your opinion, as for my inactivity is due to my work schedule and my terrible memory! Seize the day! (1st Mafia game!) I can't do anything but chuckle a bit at this. I hope he reads the ending before going through 20 pages. This did indirectly bring up a good point though. The remake will still count as our first game, right? | ||
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I am proud to have been here for the makings of legend. | ||
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On August 09 2012 09:01 Sideni wrote: Awww yeah, here it goes again (and I'm there at the beginning of the game ) Good to have you back! Even though it took you a while to start posting last game, every time you posted it made me smile. You always seem so happy and excited Alright, setting silly fluff aside now. Because I was mafia, my thoughts on how last game went for the townies are probably skewed a bit. I do feel like there was a good atmosphere for discussion. Everyone that chose to stay was a pretty good contributor in my eyes, so I hope that much conversation carries over into this game. I feel like I learned one thing about reads last game that I think it's important for every player to know. First, there is such a thing as a null read. Just because something is not pro-town doesn't mean that it is pro-scum. Bad play is not necessarily scum play. This came into play with my case against Promethelax, where I was truly certain that I had a really good case against him based on what I felt could be interpreted as malicious (ignoring the segment about Golbat, because I had genuinely misread that entire post). I still feel as though he wasn't adding much of his own in-game insight to the discussion, but as I said before, neutral does not prove scummy. The fact that he was town is proof of this. Always keep that in mind, because it can be used to manipulate the town. I'm going out for food in a second, but I'll try to think of anything else I learned. It was a pretty short game, and D2 would have been enlightening. | ||
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On August 09 2012 10:33 YourHarry wrote: To me, this is the epitome of town tell. I am almost sure that Hapah is town after this post. He was very adamant last game in disagreeing with iamperfection. Iamperfection argued that I might as well be lynched because I am a bad player and will confuse townies. Hapha was strongly against this - it seemed as if Hapha was disgusted at the thought of justifying lynching a bad townie. Scum hapha would have wanted to avoid confrontation. At least, it would have crossed his mind that people may find him suspicious for shifting his philosophy regarding lynching a scummy townie. I believe that scum Hapha would have argued that lynching a bad townie is still bad - especially when the memory of Hapha strongly disagreeing with iamperfection's justification of lynching me for being incoherent and confusing is obviously fresh in everyone's mind. Thus, I have a strong townie read on Hapha. I'm not following this. The way I'm interpreting the post, you're saying that the fact that Hapa is considering lynching a bad townie now is so in conflict with her previous town play that it would be inconceivable for scum-Hapa to even consider flipping on that view, for fear of being suspicious. What I don't understand following this interpretation is: Where does Hapa say that he is shifting this philosophy in that post? I kind of understand the thought process, but I can't find the evidence. If there's the potential to have a strong townie read on anyone this early, I would like to be as confident in it as you are. As of right now, though, I see it as unsupported WIFOM. | ||
mkfuba07
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When this game started, everyone was in this state of playful excitement that comes with a new game (at least from the 2-3 games that I've had the pleasure of seeing the beginnings of). Because of that, I didn't question this post where you call out Sideni: On August 09 2012 09:46 Lvdr wrote: D1 went well I think. We got a good amout of information that would have been useful later on. On that note, sideni is mafia because he doesn't fit his town meta!! I still don't see this as suspicious. I actually laughed at it when you posted, as it was very clearly a joke to me. You then say that you're sorry for the confusion, and that it's because you're drunk. I see no problems with this, as you haven't made any claims I view as serious. However, it continues: On August 09 2012 11:06 Lvdr wrote: Both hapa and yh are mafia or both are town? I admit that the thought crossed my mind that they were both mafia. I refrained from stating this because it has no support whatsoever, and would only make other players look into a null case. One person advocating for another person does not a scumteam make. On top of that, you don't support it in any way. No quotes, no explanation, just a leading question that might implant the idea into other people's heads. You also phrased it in such a way that it looks like you're simply implying they're part of a team. However, scum and town are the only two options. It's impossible for them to know that they're both town, so the only option is that they're both scum. On August 09 2012 12:45 Lvdr wrote: I wonder if drunkenness is a scumslip? In a mirror of your own accusation, Hapa "suspected" you of being town or mafia. He knows these are the only two options, and is pointing out how uninspired and unhelpful your previous post was. Your response is an uninspired and unhelpful excuse, one which you had already apologized for once before. A townie OR a scum who had accidentally blatantly spread confusion would make efforts to stop it, while you appear content to keep piling it on. Despite admittedly being inebriated and aware that your comments are causing confusion, you continue to post in the same manner. There is no town motivation that I can think of to do these things, while the scum motivation is clear. On August 09 2012 13:03 Lvdr wrote: More plausible than yh then? Here you passively reiterate your previous "case". In asking if Hapa thinks your actions are scummier than YH's, you are asking a question that you already know the answer to, and that answer supports your Hapa+YH scumteam case. Of course Hapa thinks you're more suspicious, he's essentially stated that already. He has suspicions of you, but hasn't mentioned suspicions of YH. Even if your case was serious, the result of this questioning wouldn't support it. Your first three posts seem neutral, but the fourth is at least bad play, and your last two seem full of not just neutral discussion promotion, nor bad play, but active scum motivation. I'd like to hear some explanation for all of this, hopefully when you're sober and hopefully in more than one ten words. Until then, I feel confident pointing my FoS at Lvdr. | ||
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You seem to have left out the spoiler where he states that he was kidding. Even the post itself reads like an obvious imitation of iamperfect to me. On August 09 2012 09:16 Hapahauli wrote: I surprisingly agree with this - if town Harry behaves scummy, and if scum Harry behaves scummy, we might be better of without him no? + Show Spoiler + I'm joking of course, but given how much thought YourHarry put into his scum play for the last two days, I have high expectations of him if he's town. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On August 09 2012 14:13 YourHarry wrote: @Hapha I mixed up Calgar and Hapha, LOL. I meant to say, "Hapha, agreed?" @mkfuba Do you agree that Hapha is most-likely town? Your last post, though, is basically a fluff and it also makes me wonder how you possibly missed Hapha's change in stance against lynching me. Did you draw scum again? I have little read on Hapa at the moment, but he's leaning pro-town to me. He is promoting discussion in the same manner he did in the previous game, and I have found no reason to suspect him of anything scummy. As for my post being fluff, I disagree. You say you have a strong read on someone a few hours into the game, and I would like to understand that. I didn't see the flip in his stance that you are basing the read off of, and wanted to know if I misunderstood the premise entirely. And no, I didn't draw scum again. Not that anyone should take my word for it. | ||
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YourHarry: I don't see why I should have assumed you misread anything. I was unsure if it was my own inability to comprehend how you came to your conclusion or some mistake on your part that was causing me to not come to the same conclusion. In order to find out which was the case, I needed to verify that I was understanding your argument correctly and ask for a clarification of your evidence, because I didn't see any. I did note the possibility that you missed, or pretended to miss, the spoiler, but if you intentionally left it out then I wasn't giving you a "get out of false claim free" card. The way in which you explain and compensate for that mistake is information, just as much as the presence of the mistake itself. | ||
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On August 09 2012 15:08 YourHarry wrote: FOS mkfuba I don't buy your case against Lvdr. While, whether one-liner posts without any logical explanations is beneficial to town in the early stages of the game is up for an argument, I do not think scums have tendency to post such one liners. I (though may be an exception) tend to post bunch of trolling one-liners as town (see my previous 2 games). Second, his read that both "me and Hapha are both scums or both towns" seems to be based on some logic. I agree that maybe he could have posted a quick explanations behind his read, but allowing some time for people to think about how Lvdr arrived at such conclusion could be good for town. In this case, he could have may be said "Discuss" or something. But as you mentioned, NEITHER town or scum has a motivation to post random suspicions. I find it suspicious to present a read, the only interpretation of which is "these two people are both scum", and then leave it for other people to either support it or deny it. It allows you to avoid providing your own evidence. It makes it so that if something comes of the discussion that was started here, his only involvement was a question while drunk. I actually feel the same way about people who end their reads with "Discuss." There are few reasons to withhold your own reasoning for your own reads. In addition, his last three posts, the ones I find suspicious, are all posed as questions instead of assertions. This distances him from the end result. Add the fact that he was drunk... I fail to see scummy reads from Lvdr. There are two things that make this suspicious to me. First, it's an excuse. Anything can be passed off as a small suspicion that he posted in the thread because he was drunk. Second, why keep posting when you've already said you're drunk and it's affecting your thinking? Now, take Lvdr's last quote: "More plausible than yh then?" In context, Lvdr was simply asking Hapha for his opinions on who he thinks is scummier, me or Lvdr. If Lvdr indeed thought that Hapha and I were scums together, I can imagine Lvdr's intention to confirm this read based on Hapha's response. And, mkfuba, by your putative "scum motivation" do you mean Lvdr is actively trying to confuse town by posting incoherent one liners? If so, I find it hard to imagine scums methodically engineering incoherent one liners to confuse town. I've already addressed this in my previous post, but I felt like that was already answered by Hapa. After considering it, I will definitely admit that I made some assumptions about Hapa which carried over into my read on Lvdr. I made an assumption that Hapa would not be suspicious of you, as you hadn't done anything overtly suspicious up to that point, and from what little I know of him from the last two days he doesn't cry scum without a reason. I then assumed that Lvdr would come to the same conclusion. This was a mistake and you can infer from it what you will, but it doesn't hurt my overall read. What I originally found scummy were the implications with so many excuses to fall behind. After your response to me, you did have me doubting my read, especially with the assumption I made at the end. Now, after thinking about it this long, the way in which the first question was phrased is very scummy to me. When I saw your original post, as town I thought "they might both be mafia." Even checking my read post, I only stated that you might both be mafia. I subconsciously cut out the town part because it didn't fit. When he saw it, he thought "They might both be mafia or both be town." That's not how townies think. They're suspicious and are operating under a lack of information. They would consider you two working together as scum after such a quick strong read, but they wouldn't carry that consideration into town because there is no way for two townies to set up such a thing. After this realization, I am offering this as well as my read post as an official case. I will rewrite it more succinctly if anyone feels like anything is too fluffy. In summary, I accuse you of possibly attempting to endorse/set-up Lvdr bandwagon by fabricating evidence from bunch one-liners posted when he was drunk. My intention with the read post was to point out play that was working against the town and hopefully get a response from Lvdr himself in response to my suspicions. It hadn't occurred to me that anyone would respond to me before he did, but I'm glad it happened because it caused me to reevaluate my read. I felt that all of my inferences were viable, though I now realize I had jumped the gun on some. However, I firmly believe that my new evidence is a significant scumslip. As such, I accept full responsibility if a bandwagon forms on Lvdr, as at this time I firmly believe he is scum. ##vote Lvdr | ||
mkfuba07
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On August 09 2012 15:12 YourHarry wrote: OK. I don't think you noted the possibility that I missed the spoiler. This came after I revealed that I indeed missed something from Hapha's post. I want to know when you first asked me for the evidence, if it crossed your mind that I simply may have missed the spoiler or not. As I said, if I had told you "I think you missed this spoiler" then your response could have simply been "Oh, I did miss that spoiler. Sorry about that!" I did that in the Prom case from last game. In an attempt to get as much information flowing into the game as possible, I wanted to discover whether or not you intentionally "misread". I don't know why you would, but that doesn't mean that you don't have a reason to do so. When I asked for evidence from you, my three options were (not in a particular order): 1. I was misunderstanding the post 2. You were intentionally misrepresenting the post 3. You made a mistake in the post If I misunderstood the post, you would clarify it. If you made a mistake, you would either find the mistake immediately or try to clarify it. If you intentionally misrepresented the post, you would almost definitely notice your "mistake" right away. Since you then clarified it and I had not actually misunderstood the post, I feel confident in saying that you simply made a mistake and there was nothing malicious behind it. | ||
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My feelings on Sideni are that he is a townie who is trying to contribute to conversation, but gets excited when he picks up on possible scum leads and gets carried away. I haven't felt that his cases had malicious intent behind them, just misguided reasoning and the mind of a panicked townie trying to defend himself. Overall, I feel as though I'm leaning townie, but by reasoning I am neutral on him. Do I think he's helping? Not much. Do I think he's scum? No. Lvdr's posting has picked up a lot since my case against him, but unfortunately (for reasons I hope will soon be clear) I haven't been able to comment on them until now. In this post+ Show Spoiler + On August 10 2012 05:54 Lvdr wrote: I made that statement because YH's goal would go along these lines: It's a blind town read that could turn into a WIFOM town circle based on hapa's later reaction -- given that YH is town. Otherwise Yh could be mafia trying to gain town cred by calling someone town (who he knows is town). If both are mafia it would be quite risky because one red flip casts suspicion on the other in that case. However they would still be providing some cover to each other. As i said the point is moot because it was retracted and its impossible to make a WIFOM read on YH if he didn't know his role at the time. Finally, I apologize for not responding to YourHarry much earlier. I think at the moment we should focus on getting a majority lynch down. Don't let me forget about responding though. | ||
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##unvote ##FoS Lvdr ##vote GoodKarma | ||
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I don't know how much I'm allowed to say, but the PMing was why I was refraining from posting. Because Axero was modkilled, everything that I was allowed to know has been overpowered by the flip itself. Now that I have no information advantage or disadvantage, I can continue posting as I had been. I hope this assuages the suspicion of me based on lurking, though that's probably too much to hope for. I'd like to jump right into my response to YourHarry: On August 10 2012 19:12 YourHarry wrote: So you were testing me? I accept the logic behind not clarifying right away. It was a superior move, than to simply point out the spoiler that I missed. You could have possibly caught the scum this way. But the thing is: I don't believe you. If you are town, given the context of our posts, your primary goal should have been to determine if my clearance of Hapa as town is merit worthy. And this goal is apparent in your post. And yes, it is possible that in addition to your trying to determine whether Hapa is indeed town, that you were also testing me. But wouldn't you say it is too unnatural and methodical to be a simple townie wanting a clarification? My primary goal as town is to be scumhunting. I don't believe there is a better goal, as catching scum is the point of the game (for town). When I saw a strong town read that didn't make any sense to me, it triggered my curiosity. I tried to figure out how you came to such a conclusion, and by doing that I came to the three options I listed. From there, I decided to let you provide which one was correct. The breakdown of what each of your possible responses would have meant did come after your response, but the intention of hearing your explanation instead of giving you an explanation was there from the beginning. Instead, it could be that your post was based on your scum motive to fit as a townie (and possibly to frame me based on according to my response). And your perfectly logical explanation behind your actions was custom designed only in afterthought. (I admit. I have no meta evidence to support this. I do not know how you play as town. I could simply be wrong in not giving you enough credit. But having played on the same scum team with you, I do know that scum mkfuba is capable of framing logical reasons around his earlier actions. I see no way to actually contest what you have said. You're using my pro-town behaviour to accuse me of being scummy. More of the same, bolded for emphasis: Your claim that you made these assumptions (which you claim you made when you initially found Lvdr suspicious), again, appear to be something you fictionalized to explain your earlier actions. None of these assumptions are actually mentioned in your initial case against Lvdr. These are two different situations. In the case of your town read, I made a plan that would garner some information from you, whether you wanted to give it or not. In my case against Lvdr, I made a mistake (or two, depending on how you consider it). I stated these assumptions in my first post. Here you passively reiterate your previous "case". In asking if Hapa thinks your actions are scummier than YH's, you are asking a question that you already know the answer to, and that answer supports your Hapa+YH scumteam case. Of course Hapa thinks you're more suspicious, he's essentially stated that already. He has suspicions of you, but hasn't mentioned suspicions of YH. Even if your case was serious, the result of this questioning wouldn't support it. The bolded portions are the assumptions I listed earlier, but in the previous post: that Hapa wasn't suspicious of you, and that Lvdr knew that already. Those assumptions did not help town, and I redacted/apologized for them. I do find it strange that you apparently didn't actually check my previous post (quoted above) for these assumptions. They seem rather obviously present to me, though I wrote it. If someone else feels like it's relevant, let us know if you were able to find my assumptions as well. As the author I'm biased by foreknowledge. | ||
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On August 11 2012 07:45 Shady Sands wrote: I'm still very suspicious of Lvdr. Flipping through his recent filter, I see nothing except one-liner posts on who is lurking. This is not good analysis by any means. Also I'm highly suspicious of this line: The logical way to avoid a no-lynch is to generate a tunnel 30 minutes before deadline on a player that no one had voted for yet. The only way this would make sense is if Lvdr somehow knows that other people will easily join him on such a rapid lynch vote. This would only make sense if Lvdr was mason or scum. I'm suspicious of Shady. His refusal to believe that Lvdr didn't want to vote for either (a) himself, or (b) someone he thought was innocent(Sideni), is strange to me. What did he expect Lvdr to do in that situation? Voting for a likely lynch is only pro-town if the person being voted on is actually suspicious. It is better, in a situation where the likely candidates are not scummy, to vote for someone who is scummy. So, instead of voting for a likely (easier to lynch) townie, it is best to vote for an unlikely (more difficult to lynch) scum. Shady seemed to be arguing that Lvdr's attempt at a no-lynch would be more likely to succeed if he voted for one of the people who were already close to being lynched. While this is true, the goal of lynching is to find scum, not to lynch for the sake of lynching. This read as pretty scummy to me. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=29#578 Now consider that GK was not included on his list of lurky and incoherent posters. I feel that he should have been pretty high consideration for such a list, but you have no evidence of my thoughts at the time. I hope you will consider GK's posts up to that point and decide if he fit the bill. This spoiler contains unfinished thoughts that I have a sketchy feeling about, but can't put my finger on. + Show Spoiler + On August 11 2012 07:50 Shady Sands wrote: Got it. Well then that cements my read on Lvdr. I think this is an attempt by scum to either mislynch a townie or bus one of their own. Highly suspicious. On August 11 2012 08:40 Shady Sands wrote: Wow. Town is either crazy good this game or scum is bussing. Given that it's day 1 I'm going to say the former is more likely. This is just a little bit of a contradiction that I found... interesting. Day 1 he is claiming that the GK bandwagon is an intentional mislynch or a bus, but after the flip he says that because it was day 1, it probably wasn't a bus. Together the two posts say a whole lot of nothing. I feel like there might be something else in there that I just can't see, but at the moment I can't stop my mind from going around in circles. I need to rest at this point, but my quick reads on the other three: YourHarry: His main focus seems to have been telling me I'm too good at being town. He gave me far more pressure than I imagined I'd get from the whole thread on these two posts. His attempt to turn my pro-town plans into evidence of scummy fabrication is annoying, and defending my reads against these attempts is distracting me from other matters, but I can't tell if it's scummy. Kronen: His vote timing, as well as Shady's, send off some alarms in my head. If they were the remainder of the scumteam, then they sure slipped in right at the nick of time. I was working on this line of reasoning when I realized that I wasn't going to be able to keep my eyes open long enough to make it through. I'll flush it out in the morning. Promethelax: The most notable thing about Promethelax to me is how little I've thought about Promethelax. I'll go through his filter when I've rested. It takes me forever to analyze things, and I couldn't start a filter from scratch right now. | ||
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On August 11 2012 23:33 YourHarry wrote: OK. Could we just lynch Kronen next? It is hard to tell if he's role hunting but this last post is bunch of fluff. "It would be be so beautiful Hapa if you were the cop... hot damn."??? I just ... don't get it. This is beyond me. @mkfuba I wasn't quite saying you are too good to be pro-town. It just seems that your reasons for your earlier actions, which you provided hours later, seem made up - especially since you never mention any hint of such reasoning in your initial posts. I already read your defense regarding this, and we just disagree. For now, we should focus on other matter. But why are you so worried about it? No one else seems to think you are scum. I'm going to think more on the people I haven't given much thought to before giving a solid read, but Kronen is still on my list. I'm hoping to find something concrete to support my idea of a Kronen/Shady scumteam, but at the moment it's all based around the timing of the final vote, and where they both ended up in relation to the vote. I'll post this theory no matter what, especially now that I've mentioned it twice. As for the rest, I understand. I have no suspicions of you that I could consider completely OMGUS free, so it's best to focus on scumhunting now, instead of reiterating points from a 2-day old case that no longer has any backing. Onwards and upwards! | ||
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On August 12 2012 02:53 Hapahauli wrote: To be honest mkfuba - it's kinda blowing my mind that you have a null read on Promethelax in spite of Dandel Ion's recently posted case, as well as my own suspicions posted last night. Surely you have some sort of read on him? If you're referring to his case in this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=45#891 I've just read it and it he has some good points. I've yet to look through Prom's filter, as I've been awake for less than an hour after my previous post (saying that I hadn't given Prom much consideration yet), and I wanted to respond to direct questions of me before going into more reads. They are coming, I assure you. | ||
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I agree with what has been said by the rest of the players. His play has been lackluster from a town standpoint. He claims to provide very good cases, and then votes for Sideni based on the same reasoning that GK tried to use: Sideni mistook the name of who was getting married. He also seems to completely overinflate the impact of Sideni's request that people help build a case against me. Even as the one accused, I saw this as a townie who had been under pressure all game, trying to provide something substantial that would get the pressure off of himself. He also says that given what we learned throughout the day, there was still not enough information to have changed his vote to someone more reasonably scummy. There was so much information, and these are the facts he latches onto? Yes, confidence in a case that people aren't buying is typically seen as a town trait, but these arguments are empty. As for the "bussing" that he thinks went on, I don't buy it. There is so much that could have gone wrong during the day to pull off the bus, and there is so much that could go wrong when his unconfirmed townies start flipping green (supposing that Hapa was scum). I don't believe the benefits would have outweighed the risks. I also second Lvdr's question: Why bus the godfather? | ||
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=45#884 On August 11 2012 07:43 Hapahauli wrote: He doesn't accept Hapa's reasoning here, when I see no flaws with it from a pro-town standpoint. Only after Kronen clinches the vote for GK does Shady actually confirm his vote on Lvdr. He uses Lvdr's "suspicious" decision as reasoning, when I don't see it as suspicious at all. At this point, his vote will not sway the vote either way, so I don't see it as particularly townish to stubbornly stick with his original vote. He also earns some towncred along the way for not bandwagoning. He even included this post that establishes his willingness to go either way if given a reason:Basically, he's been lurking, he hasn't contributed any original analysis, and he's tunneled suspicion on Axero/Sideni. He's taken safe positions while never sticking his neck out. Especially in light of how insane D1 has been, I find this strange. TBH, I'm just incredibly unsatisfied with the current lynch candidates (Sideni and Lvdr) - I think they're bad townies. On August 11 2012 07:41 Shady Sands wrote: I'd be willing to do the pile too, but sometime in the next twenty minutes could someone please recap a case on GoodKarma? But when his vote no longer impacts the lynch, he doesn't change his vote despite valid reasons being presented. | ||
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On August 12 2012 06:30 Shady Sands wrote: Here's the problem with your logic. After Kronen clinched the vote, no matter which way I voted, you can use that to argue that I'm scum. If I voted GK, then it can look like a scum trying to look innocent, and if I voted someone else, then you can argue the WIFOM-ish argument you just posted. What happened is that about 30 minutes before the lynch, I came into the thread and saw a huge pileup on GoodKarma when most of the D1 discussion had been around Sideni and Lvdr. I was really confused, and asked for people to help me recap what had happened. After that, I thought that the case on GK was not as good as the one on Lvdr, so I went with the Lvdr vote. Someone tell me why this is scum behavior? The bit you're referring to was my reasoning through Hapa's belief of you as leaning pro-town, when I don't feel as though sticking to your vote was evidence of that. Your vote had no impact, so it was not a danger. Your sticking to your guns was as motivation-revealing as my switch to GK (as well as Kronen's vote, since his came only two minutes before mine). Essentially, I feel like sticking to your vote was a null tell at best, but the vote itself was scum motivated. | ||
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Though I would have expected one of the confirmed townies first, since the rest of us are going to pick ourselves apart... | ||
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EBWOP: Ignore my question, got sniped! | ||
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@Hapa On August 12 2012 02:45 Hapahauli wrote: @ mkfuba - I'm kinda dissapointed that you have a lot of indecisive/null reads. There's a lot of information to sift over on Day 1; plenty for you to make a case on Kronen/Shady if one exists at all On August 12 2012 02:53 Hapahauli wrote: To be honest mkfuba - it's kinda blowing my mind that you have a null read on Promethelax in spite of Dandel Ion's recently posted case, as well as my own suspicions posted last night. Surely you have some sort of read on him? I can't respond to this without talking at least a little about the modkill. I was waiting for a response from prplhz for the entire second half of D1. He gave me the go-ahead to post about 15 minutes before my return post. Yes, it was a self-imposed limit that was not demanded nor apparently required of me, but I didn't want my additional knowledge to affect the game as a whole. So I waited. During that time, my thoughts centered on what was going to happen with Axero and I. My concerns were now out of game. I kept reading the thread, but I was extremely distracted. Everything that I mentioned in this post + Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=45#884 | ||
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##vote: Promethelax | ||
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On August 13 2012 00:17 Sideni wrote: ... @Mkfuba07 : I want you to tell me your role no matter what could happen after that. IF YOU DON'T TELL me or if you're hesitant, I'll consider you as a scum ! Why do I want your role ? Because you're the one, in my mind, that would be the partner of Promethelax on a scumteam. It can only be good for town, believe me ! I know it sounds funny ... (I'll reveal my strategy after Night 2) I am hesitant... but I'm a Vanilla Townie. Not that anyone should take my word for it. | ||
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On August 13 2012 03:55 Dandel Ion wrote: If we have a medic, I request a save on Sideni during night 2. I think I know what's going on. Absolutely seconded. | ||
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So you all know, I'll be leaving to visit family in about 3 hours, and the internet there is... unreliable. I think I'll be able to post (I'll have my laptop) but it's failed me in the past. I should be back in my own apartment sometime Tuesday. You have my vote for D2. | ||
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For the record: I find Hapa-as-scum EXTREMELY unlikely. However, given that our lynch is already decided I wanted to think about what might happen in the future. This case exists without the information that will become available in the next few days. Agreed, Lvdr. That being said, I don't want to post my concerns yet, just to have the scumteam NK everyone but who we're suspicious of. Two days (enough time for our suspicions of Shady and Prome to be tested) is also two NKs, and I don't want the people I think may be scum to be the only ones I'm stuck with at the end. I hope that was clear, it's difficult logic to explain.Other than wild, several days in advance cases, there doesn't seem to be much to do until prome gets lynched. | ||
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And I know this really sucks, but I won't be available again until about 2-3 hours after the vote. With school starting up, it's been decided that tomorrow is going to be spent visiting doctors and various school-related events. @Hapa: I don't see any evidence to support your drinking of beer. Rum is a far more viable option, as less of it is needed to party! ##Drink Rum | ||
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