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On August 11 2012 07:45 Shady Sands wrote:I'm still very suspicious of Lvdr. Flipping through his recent filter, I see nothing except one-liner posts on who is lurking. This is not good analysis by any means. Also I'm highly suspicious of this line: Show nested quote +For lurkiness reasons and because I think Sideni is Bad-Town. Also No-lynch seems like it would be a disaster. The logical way to avoid a no-lynch is to generate a tunnel 30 minutes before deadline on a player that no one had voted for yet. The only way this would make sense is if Lvdr somehow knows that other people will easily join him on such a rapid lynch vote. This would only make sense if Lvdr was mason or scum.
I'm suspicious of Shady. His refusal to believe that Lvdr didn't want to vote for either (a) himself, or (b) someone he thought was innocent(Sideni), is strange to me. What did he expect Lvdr to do in that situation? Voting for a likely lynch is only pro-town if the person being voted on is actually suspicious. It is better, in a situation where the likely candidates are not scummy, to vote for someone who is scummy. So, instead of voting for a likely (easier to lynch) townie, it is best to vote for an unlikely (more difficult to lynch) scum. Shady seemed to be arguing that Lvdr's attempt at a no-lynch would be more likely to succeed if he voted for one of the people who were already close to being lynched. While this is true, the goal of lynching is to find scum, not to lynch for the sake of lynching. This read as pretty scummy to me.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=29#578
Now consider that GK was not included on his list of lurky and incoherent posters. I feel that he should have been pretty high consideration for such a list, but you have no evidence of my thoughts at the time. I hope you will consider GK's posts up to that point and decide if he fit the bill.
This spoiler contains unfinished thoughts that I have a sketchy feeling about, but can't put my finger on.
+ Show Spoiler +On August 11 2012 07:50 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 07:46 Dandel Ion wrote:On August 11 2012 07:45 Shady Sands wrote:I'm still very suspicious of Lvdr. Flipping through his recent filter, I see nothing except one-liner posts on who is lurking. This is not good analysis by any means. Also I'm highly suspicious of this line: For lurkiness reasons and because I think Sideni is Bad-Town. Also No-lynch seems like it would be a disaster. The logical way to avoid a no-lynch is to generate a tunnel 30 minutes before deadline on a player that no one had voted for yet. The only way this would make sense is if Lvdr somehow knows that other people will easily join him on such a rapid lynch vote. This would only make sense if Lvdr was mason or scum. There are no masons in this game. Got it. Well then that cements my read on Lvdr. I think this is an attempt by scum to either mislynch a townie or bus one of their own. Highly suspicious. On August 11 2012 08:40 Shady Sands wrote:
Wow. Town is either crazy good this game or scum is bussing. Given that it's day 1 I'm going to say the former is more likely. This is just a little bit of a contradiction that I found... interesting. Day 1 he is claiming that the GK bandwagon is an intentional mislynch or a bus, but after the flip he says that because it was day 1, it probably wasn't a bus. Together the two posts say a whole lot of nothing. I feel like there might be something else in there that I just can't see, but at the moment I can't stop my mind from going around in circles.
I need to rest at this point, but my quick reads on the other three:
YourHarry: His main focus seems to have been telling me I'm too good at being town. He gave me far more pressure than I imagined I'd get from the whole thread on these two posts. His attempt to turn my pro-town plans into evidence of scummy fabrication is annoying, and defending my reads against these attempts is distracting me from other matters, but I can't tell if it's scummy.
Kronen: His vote timing, as well as Shady's, send off some alarms in my head. If they were the remainder of the scumteam, then they sure slipped in right at the nick of time. I was working on this line of reasoning when I realized that I wasn't going to be able to keep my eyes open long enough to make it through. I'll flush it out in the morning.
Promethelax: The most notable thing about Promethelax to me is how little I've thought about Promethelax. I'll go through his filter when I've rested. It takes me forever to analyze things, and I couldn't start a filter from scratch right now.
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On August 11 2012 23:33 YourHarry wrote:
OK. Could we just lynch Kronen next?
It is hard to tell if he's role hunting but this last post is bunch of fluff. "It would be be so beautiful Hapa if you were the cop... hot damn."??? I just ... don't get it. This is beyond me.
@mkfuba I wasn't quite saying you are too good to be pro-town. It just seems that your reasons for your earlier actions, which you provided hours later, seem made up - especially since you never mention any hint of such reasoning in your initial posts. I already read your defense regarding this, and we just disagree. For now, we should focus on other matter.
But why are you so worried about it? No one else seems to think you are scum.
I'm going to think more on the people I haven't given much thought to before giving a solid read, but Kronen is still on my list. I'm hoping to find something concrete to support my idea of a Kronen/Shady scumteam, but at the moment it's all based around the timing of the final vote, and where they both ended up in relation to the vote. I'll post this theory no matter what, especially now that I've mentioned it twice.
As for the rest, I understand. I have no suspicions of you that I could consider completely OMGUS free, so it's best to focus on scumhunting now, instead of reiterating points from a 2-day old case that no longer has any backing. Onwards and upwards!
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On August 12 2012 02:53 Hapahauli wrote:
To be honest mkfuba - it's kinda blowing my mind that you have a null read on Promethelax in spite of Dandel Ion's recently posted case, as well as my own suspicions posted last night. Surely you have some sort of read on him?
If you're referring to his case in this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=45#891
I've just read it and it he has some good points. I've yet to look through Prom's filter, as I've been awake for less than an hour after my previous post (saying that I hadn't given Prom much consideration yet), and I wanted to respond to direct questions of me before going into more reads. They are coming, I assure you.
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Promethelax
I agree with what has been said by the rest of the players. His play has been lackluster from a town standpoint. He claims to provide very good cases, and then votes for Sideni based on the same reasoning that GK tried to use: Sideni mistook the name of who was getting married. He also seems to completely overinflate the impact of Sideni's request that people help build a case against me. Even as the one accused, I saw this as a townie who had been under pressure all game, trying to provide something substantial that would get the pressure off of himself. He also says that given what we learned throughout the day, there was still not enough information to have changed his vote to someone more reasonably scummy. There was so much information, and these are the facts he latches onto? Yes, confidence in a case that people aren't buying is typically seen as a town trait, but these arguments are empty.
As for the "bussing" that he thinks went on, I don't buy it. There is so much that could have gone wrong during the day to pull off the bus, and there is so much that could go wrong when his unconfirmed townies start flipping green (supposing that Hapa was scum). I don't believe the benefits would have outweighed the risks. I also second Lvdr's question: Why bus the godfather?
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Right now I would still say Shady. In addition to my previous post here + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=45#884 On August 11 2012 07:43 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 07:41 Shady Sands wrote:
I'd be willing to do the pile too, but sometime in the next twenty minutes could someone please recap a case on GoodKarma? Basically, he's been lurking, he hasn't contributed any original analysis, and he's tunneled suspicion on Axero/Sideni. He's taken safe positions while never sticking his neck out. Especially in light of how insane D1 has been, I find this strange. TBH, I'm just incredibly unsatisfied with the current lynch candidates (Sideni and Lvdr) - I think they're bad townies. He doesn't accept Hapa's reasoning here, when I see no flaws with it from a pro-town standpoint. Only after Kronen clinches the vote for GK does Shady actually confirm his vote on Lvdr. He uses Lvdr's "suspicious" decision as reasoning, when I don't see it as suspicious at all. At this point, his vote will not sway the vote either way, so I don't see it as particularly townish to stubbornly stick with his original vote. He also earns some towncred along the way for not bandwagoning. He even included this post that establishes his willingness to go either way if given a reason:
On August 11 2012 07:41 Shady Sands wrote:
I'd be willing to do the pile too, but sometime in the next twenty minutes could someone please recap a case on GoodKarma?
But when his vote no longer impacts the lynch, he doesn't change his vote despite valid reasons being presented.
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On August 12 2012 06:30 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On August 12 2012 05:18 mkfuba07 wrote:Right now I would still say Shady. In addition to my previous post here + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=45#884 , I have more thoughts concerning his actions around the time of the vote. On August 11 2012 07:43 Hapahauli wrote:On August 11 2012 07:41 Shady Sands wrote:
I'd be willing to do the pile too, but sometime in the next twenty minutes could someone please recap a case on GoodKarma? Basically, he's been lurking, he hasn't contributed any original analysis, and he's tunneled suspicion on Axero/Sideni. He's taken safe positions while never sticking his neck out. Especially in light of how insane D1 has been, I find this strange. TBH, I'm just incredibly unsatisfied with the current lynch candidates (Sideni and Lvdr) - I think they're bad townies. He doesn't accept Hapa's reasoning here, when I see no flaws with it from a pro-town standpoint. Only after Kronen clinches the vote for GK does Shady actually confirm his vote on Lvdr. He uses Lvdr's "suspicious" decision as reasoning, when I don't see it as suspicious at all. At this point, his vote will not sway the vote either way, so I don't see it as particularly townish to stubbornly stick with his original vote. He also earns some towncred along the way for not bandwagoning. He even included this post that establishes his willingness to go either way if given a reason: On August 11 2012 07:41 Shady Sands wrote:
I'd be willing to do the pile too, but sometime in the next twenty minutes could someone please recap a case on GoodKarma? But when his vote no longer impacts the lynch, he doesn't change his vote despite valid reasons being presented. Here's the problem with your logic. After Kronen clinched the vote, no matter which way I voted, you can use that to argue that I'm scum. If I voted GK, then it can look like a scum trying to look innocent, and if I voted someone else, then you can argue the WIFOM-ish argument you just posted. What happened is that about 30 minutes before the lynch, I came into the thread and saw a huge pileup on GoodKarma when most of the D1 discussion had been around Sideni and Lvdr. I was really confused, and asked for people to help me recap what had happened. After that, I thought that the case on GK was not as good as the one on Lvdr, so I went with the Lvdr vote. Someone tell me why this is scum behavior?
The bit you're referring to was my reasoning through Hapa's belief of you as leaning pro-town, when I don't feel as though sticking to your vote was evidence of that. Your vote had no impact, so it was not a danger. Your sticking to your guns was as motivation-revealing as my switch to GK (as well as Kronen's vote, since his came only two minutes before mine).
Essentially, I feel like sticking to your vote was a null tell at best, but the vote itself was scum motivated.
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All of Kronen's post-lynch posts give me strong townie vibes. I don't place much weight on how/when he voted, but the amount of effort he's taken to make the situation easy to analyze makes him my strongest town read out of the rest (excluding myself).
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Are we allowed to post freely until the Daypost? Or should we stop until it pops up?
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I didn't expect it, but I see why it happened. He was being very helpful to town.
Though I would have expected one of the confirmed townies first, since the rest of us are going to pick ourselves apart...
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Oh, yeah.
EBWOP: Ignore my question, got sniped!
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This is what I intended to post earlier. I hope it clarifies some things that I've said.
@Hapa
On August 12 2012 02:45 Hapahauli wrote:
@ mkfuba - I'm kinda dissapointed that you have a lot of indecisive/null reads. There's a lot of information to sift over on Day 1; plenty for you to make a case on Kronen/Shady if one exists at all
On August 12 2012 02:53 Hapahauli wrote:
To be honest mkfuba - it's kinda blowing my mind that you have a null read on Promethelax in spite of Dandel Ion's recently posted case, as well as my own suspicions posted last night. Surely you have some sort of read on him?
I can't respond to this without talking at least a little about the modkill. I was waiting for a response from prplhz for the entire second half of D1. He gave me the go-ahead to post about 15 minutes before my return post. Yes, it was a self-imposed limit that was not demanded nor apparently required of me, but I didn't want my additional knowledge to affect the game as a whole. So I waited.
During that time, my thoughts centered on what was going to happen with Axero and I. My concerns were now out of game. I kept reading the thread, but I was extremely distracted. Everything that I mentioned in this post + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=45#884
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EBWOP: Clearly I should not be suspicious of Kronen at all anymore <.<
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It strikes me as likely that the scum didn't see his final night post before voting, so I think we should really consider what he was doing before that.
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I agreed before the NK, and the flip didn't change my view.
##vote: Promethelax
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On August 13 2012 00:17 Sideni wrote:
...
@Mkfuba07 :
I want you to tell me your role no matter what could happen after that. IF YOU DON'T TELL me or if you're hesitant, I'll consider you as a scum ! Why do I want your role ? Because you're the one, in my mind, that would be the partner of Promethelax on a scumteam. It can only be good for town, believe me !
I know it sounds funny ... (I'll reveal my strategy after Night 2)
I am hesitant... but I'm a Vanilla Townie.
Not that anyone should take my word for it.
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On August 13 2012 03:55 Dandel Ion wrote:
If we have a medic, I request a save on Sideni during night 2.
I think I know what's going on.
Absolutely seconded.
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I have some follow-up suspicions in the event that somehow both Prome and Shady flip green, but I'll hold off on those because they're so unlikely and I don't want to point undue suspicion when it's 3-4 days in the future.
So you all know, I'll be leaving to visit family in about 3 hours, and the internet there is... unreliable. I think I'll be able to post (I'll have my laptop) but it's failed me in the past. I should be back in my own apartment sometime Tuesday. You have my vote for D2.
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For the record: I find Hapa-as-scum EXTREMELY unlikely. However, given that our lynch is already decided I wanted to think about what might happen in the future. This case exists without the information that will become available in the next few days.
Other than wild, several days in advance cases, there doesn't seem to be much to do until prome gets lynched. Agreed, Lvdr. That being said, I don't want to post my concerns yet, just to have the scumteam NK everyone but who we're suspicious of. Two days (enough time for our suspicions of Shady and Prome to be tested) is also two NKs, and I don't want the people I think may be scum to be the only ones I'm stuck with at the end. I hope that was clear, it's difficult logic to explain.
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I don't even see why I would be a save priority. I expected the confirmed townies to be NK'd first, since we're going to be picking apart the unconfirmed townies in the lynchings. I considered myself completely safe last night...
And I know this really sucks, but I won't be available again until about 2-3 hours after the vote. With school starting up, it's been decided that tomorrow is going to be spent visiting doctors and various school-related events.
@Hapa: I don't see any evidence to support your drinking of beer. Rum is a far more viable option, as less of it is needed to party!
##Drink Rum
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GOOD GAME! Called Shady :D
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EPT
