EPT
. I've played a few games of sc2's mafia, and would be interested in seeing what this game is like without trolls.Newbie Mini Mafia XXII
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
. I've played a few games of sc2's mafia, and would be interested in seeing what this game is like without trolls. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On July 25 2012 21:54 Obvious.660 wrote: Grab a veteran player, just promise you will make them vanilla town! Then betray us and make them scum! Then we can spend an entire game throwing around WIFOM about the situation and mafia wins! Also, I want to become a host one day but I need to be less newbie so let's just have Marv cohost, coach scum, and play for town. Also, who stole the cookie from the cookie jar? Bringing out all these terms I've never heard of before, like WIFOM, scum, and cookie jar... Hopefully you're on my team or I'm very, very afraid  .2nd edit: sorry for edit... Need to get it out of my system before the start of the game. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
This is my first game so be nice to me lol.I'm sorry I wasn't on earlier I had no idea this had actually started. I agree that lurking is bad, and to that end if there's a no-poster by the deadline that's where my first vote goes. I think it's been mentioned here before, but I would like to reaffirm the idea that no-lynch day one is not the best policy. Imho, doing such will just put us in a day one situation come day two. We really need to pressure those who aren't participating to post their thoughts, or face the consequences. I plan to follow up this post with my thoughts on who feels scummy, just as Shady Sands is, once the last "lurker" that wasn't me on this list posts, Ange777. One thing that I would like to mention tho is that while inactivity can't be tolerated having a high post count shouldn't necessarily be encouraged. It's the quality of the posts that matters, and that fresh content is brought to the table. +1 posts are absolutely useless and do the town no good, so please don't post them (MrMedic.... cough cough). | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On July 27 2012 11:53 MrMedic wrote: Ok, I am sorry about all these little posts I am doing. I am new to the game and am kinda reluctant to do a big first post but I will try now since everyone is telling me to post something worth while (I agree also). First, I agree with Darthpunk for a variety of reasons. The largest reason in all of this is that he is constantly saying contradictions with him self. Saying that we should lynch Mr K in his third option and he says this would be great but in the other options while saying this he says we might ruin the town more or it will be bad for the town. But the thing that most strikes me is that he says number 2 is the least probable but he says in his third option that we should lynch him now. But he says at the end we shouldn't lynch him right now. What this really shows is that he is trying to force the option one on too our minds and make us think that he just trying to take one for the team. So in conclusion, he is on top of showing what option he wants us to do. Also, he only shows the options of killing him and as a result would not be a big deal or be a good thing and even though he tress to show the negativity of the situation in actuality he steers you away from it and making it seem like a positive outcome no matter what happens. You're on the right track MrMedic but tbh this isn't much better... Rehashing what's already been said isn't really helping the town. There is analysis buried in there but it's not easy to get to. Maybe it's just me, but I find it very hard to follow what you're saying with your writing style. If it were me, I would quote what I'm critiquing, maybe in spoilers if it's super-long, and then say where I agree and disagree in bulletpoints for readability. But only if I have something new to add. Don't be like darn I really need to post something good for this game today or I'm modkilled. This town doesn't need the same information regurgitated for several pages. I understand this is your first game. It's mine too. But you really need to ask yourself before posting "how is what I'm saying helping the town." Maybe there's something you feel is profound that's in there that I've missed, but clarity is absolutely necessary if you're going to be a good town. People can read Mr K's post. They don't need posts summarizing what he said. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Mordanis's arguements were definitely incredibly flimsy, but I find it hard to believe that a mafia would stick his neck out that far when it seems many successful mafia are content to stick their heads in the sand. His opening statement indicates he desires to start a hunt for who's mafia: On July 27 2012 07:43 Mordanis wrote: Rather than sitting in a circle and deciding whom to lynch based on who sing "Kum ba yah, My Lord" the most off key (what kind of villainous scum would do such a thing?), I think its time to begin the scumhunt. Anyways, I apologize in advance if this seems somewhat rushed. I want to get the hunt going as early as possible, and I feel we've wasted the first hour and a half. So without further ado, here comes (hopefully) the first case of the game: It's also worth noting he has not yet explicitly voted for who he accused. I don't feel we can find that guy with one flimsy lynch arguement and assume he's guilty, especially when it's the first arguement of the game. I don't see him having any investment in who's accused if he's really mafia, especially when most day one lynchings tend to hit town. I'm much more interested in seeking out those who have been somewhat active but haven't really said anything useful. Or have been active about being inactive (e.g. I have to go to the donut store be back in 12 hours k thx bye). Not saying these claims can't be legit, but if the person isn't contributing anything when they're not afk, and using irl activities as a convenient excuse for remaining inactive, that's pretty scummy to me. For these reasons, my top picks right now are: Ayruujin has had a minimal number of posts about very little. He's been lurking, and while people may disagree, I'm all for trying lurkers on day 1. We don't have a lot to go on, and it feels more probable to me that a lurker will turn mafia than someone who makes a stupid arguement and is jumping at the opportunity to get hanged. MrMedic, who's had plenty of posts that amount to nothing. He could be a bad town, but it also could mean mafia. Promethelax (to a far lesser degree), who's claiming an irl excuse. I understand irl commitments can keep us from doing fun things, but if it becomes a habit that keeps you from posting then you're on my suspect list. This is more of an example of what I consider a scummy play more than a suspect person. It's too early to tell here. As outlined above I consider Ayruujin suspect and am therefore voting for him. ##Vote Ayruujin Could Mordanis be mafia? Most definitely. But as I've discussed above I feel that his play would be a poor one if he were really mafia. Ayruujin's lurking is more suspicious to me right now. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
##Vote aRyuujin | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
The following names have been mentioned in passing as not contributing much, and warrant attention. Further, if none of them step up their posting quality then I feel that the vigilante shot would not be wasted on any of them (though atm Obvious and MrMedic are my favorite candidates (with aRyuujin presumably lynched)). aRyuujin - I will explain this in detail below... Obvious - He was very active before the game started. After the game starts, though, he doesn't really have any of his own opinions or assertions. Just a few words of encouragement. Very suspicious, and very lurky. MrMedic - He made one hard-to-follow post that wasn't a one-liner. Everything else has been meaningless fluff and filler. Zormkid - Another lurky poster who has not added much to conversation. Now, I would like to discuss further my vote for aRyuujin. It started as a policy lynching (lynch all lurkers), but some further evidence from his recent postings has reaffirmed my conviction to vote for him as they make him look scummy. aRyuujin - He has posted very little actual content, which is suspicious. For one thing, he is an avid poster on the forums. He is not afraid to show his opinion on a number of issues. So why is it that his arguments here are only general consensus with trending opinions? Also, I find it interesting that a few people have spoke up for him as benign/slightly town. Seeing how he flips will provide valuable information about these people. In the quote below he acknowledged himself as a smart suspect (which I find it hard to believe a townie would do). Then just moves on and redirects his discussion towards MrMedic and then other already discussed candidates. Redirection and "blending in with trending town arguements" are scum plays. On July 28 2012 01:48 aRyuujin wrote: aRyuujin/MrMedic + Show Spoiler + Suspecting me-Smart I did not yet provide posts Either i'm scum or A really bad Town. Mr Medic comes to mind For these reasons too On July 27 2012 11:53 MrMedic wrote: Ok, I am sorry about all these little posts I am doing. I am new to the game and am kinda reluctant to do a big first post but I will try now since everyone is telling me to post something worth while (I agree also). First, I agree with Darthpunk for a variety of reasons. The largest reason in all of this is that he is constantly saying contradictions with him self. Saying that we should lynch Mr K in his third option and he says this would be great but in the other options while saying this he says we might ruin the town more or it will be bad for the town. But the thing that most strikes me is that he says number 2 is the least probable but he says in his third option that we should lynch him now. But he says at the end we shouldn't lynch him right now. What this really shows is that he is trying to force the option one on too our minds and make us think that he just trying to take one for the team. So in conclusion, he is on top of showing what option he wants us to do. Also, he only shows the options of killing him and as a result would not be a big deal or be a good thing and even though he tress to show the negativity of the situation in actuality he steers you away from it and making it seem like a positive outcome no matter what happens. His first content post he looks he's saying stuff showing fallacies He's bandwagoning and his analysis makes little sense if you understand how mordanis was posting those were 3 what-ifs false contribution and his confusing posts lead me to believe that he's either a bad town, or a mafioso backup vote's on him Golbat + Show Spoiler + You picked mordanis super fast. I don't see why you would keep swapping. On July 27 2012 17:14 Golbat wrote: + Show Spoiler + I honestly expected more people to have read that stupid blog and judge me for it, and I don't really blame you. I can get really hotheaded and overconfident when I see a solution (or in this case, potential mafia), and begin trying to slam a square peg into the area between the circle hole and the triangle hole. I'm still not sure about your scum status, but at the same time, I want to explore all possibilities, and casting a vote before the halfway mark of the day is foolish anyways. If you're scum, it gives you time to shape up your posting, and if you're not, it gives scum time to run a train on you. Even while I was writing up my reads, I saw other people who could be scum just as easily as you. But now that I've been able to refocus, I really think I should give other people some space to talk, especially because half the town hasn't even really contributed, and that's never a good thing. I do want to state that whatever my read are in my previous post, they should not be taken as me being 100% certain of a person's innocence/guilt. DarthPunk and Shady could easily be scum too, but I think that before we come to conclusions, we have to look at the big picture, and that hasn't really been completely painted yet. Over here, time wastes You continue to take back and go back on mord On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote: The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read. I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is ##FoS Mordanis It's not the flat-out vote that it was before, but I still don't trust you. I've heard several times to trust my reads, and so this is my position. We'll see what happens between now and lynch time. + Show Spoiler + but for real now, I need to step away from the thread for a few hours But here, you go back without a new catalyst you appear to help but really, you're not (a super scum thing to do) ##FoS Golbat I plan to vote you but it could easily change depends on the thread Mordanis + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 21:22 Shady Sands wrote: EBWOP: Just realized I forgot to slot in why Mord's post makes me want to hold off to Day2/3--Mord highlights "drawing attention to himself" and a willingness to stand up for his beliefs as keystones of his in-game habits. The thing with this playstyle is that playing as a "noisy scum" is very hard to keep up over 2 or 3 in-game days, because in a game as small as this, the analysis will very quickly start to shift in the right direction and noisy attempts to derail become more and more risky as the posts pile on--inevitably a fairly major scumslip will be made. By committing publicly to this sort of strategy, we can judge Mord the following way: if Mord continues to play loud and does not get quiet over the next few days, then Mord will either burn out quickly and scumslip or prove that he is not scum. If Mord quiets down after Day 1, then his above post basically consigns him to becoming an easy lynch--especially if Golbat flips blue/green. Shady's last edit summarizes why we dont vote for mordanis If he's mafia he will be a free kill soon if he's not, why vote Also, a smaller point: your analysis is one of the most important things you can bring to the town, so why does aRyuujin encase it in spoilers? Maybe this is his writing style, or maybe it's because he doesn't want people following his analysis closely. But it does feel like a smart thing for mafia to try. TL;DR: My call to action: Lurkers will perish If you will follow my vote aRyuujin you're first | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Yes, not all lurkers are mafia. And not all mafia are lurkers. Obviously it's great if a target flips red. However, even if a target flips green, you can still be in a better position if that townie was not providing constructive criticism and clarity in his posts. Above all else, the town needs to have clarity and focus to win. Removing lurkers early helps with this goal. By instituting a lynch the lurker policy day one, lurking townies will hopefully realize lurking is bad town play and shape up. Sadly lurking isn't necessarily bad mafia play, and this helps to bring any lurking mafia into the spotlight. Can mafia be active posters playing on the townies' fears? Of coarse they can, but if they are active posters they can and will slip up. They can be found. You let them lurk and you will have trouble winning. But here's the biggest reason I see to play lynch the lurker on day 1 (and I know some may disagree here): you cannot possibly have a good read on anyone before there's been a flip. A scum can sit in the background and lol at town. Scum can speak up in the first hour of day one as to why he thinks there's a premium lynch target. You just simply can't predict how they will play. They can have one scummy post and be town. It's the trend over time, including their voting histories, and the people they've attacked and defended, that will spell out their true intentions. However, by establishing a policy against lurking, you immediately set up a constructive town atmosphere even if you lynch town day one. I would be happy to see an informative post on this topic if you have read a different viewpoint. However, from the guides I've read on this subject clarity is key, and lurkers are definitely a good lynch target. I would be happy to provide links for you if you need, though the TL mafia central library should have all the guides I've looked at. @ and regarding aRyuujin: Here's the issues I currently have that make me think you're a good lynch day one. You have not really added any meaningful discussion presently for town. Your viewpoints have been rehashings of towns'. Your first critical post is what I'm looking for. I hate to reiterate this point but neither you nor Keirathi have really addressed it. Until I see that first critical post, you are by my definition a lurker. The other point is that there's one or two people that have come to your defense. You talk about scum buddies, which is most interesting to me. Because I would think scum buddies would be involved in the defense of their friend, especially on day one when it's nearly impossible to present a truely rock-solid case against anyone. Lynching you would give valuable information about those who choose to stand behind you. This is very valuable information, even if you flip town. If we were to lynch a Mord or golbat or shady right now and they flip town, all we would know is that no one in town really liked them much. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
First paragraph I'm discussing why lynching a lurker day one is a solid idea. That should come across, but I'll reiterate that here for clarity as I don't explicitly mention that in opening. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Yes. I've talked a lot about lurkers. And tbh I consider that a very important contribution. It is day one and no one can truely have a good read on who is scum without any flips. We can go with our pitchforks at those we consider "scummy," and we should. But the absolute very first thing that needs to happen is that we establish solid town policy that ensures there's clarity in what is posted and everyone is participating. This is what I'm getting at with lynch the lurker. I apologize that I'm not bandwaggoning on some guy who has a couple scummy-looking posts right now, as many of our forum friends seem content to do, but I strongly feel that if we establish an atmosphere where we encourage participation that it will be that much easier to weed out scum. I will be more than happy to talk about scummy reads when there's more information to go off of, but that information just isn't there on day one. The scummiest looking people right now are the lurkers. And it's not like this is some crazy half-baked idea. I encourage you, like I encouraged Keirathi, to read some basic town guides on TL. Lurkers are a good target, especially when you don't have any good leads to go off of. I've discussed this point to death, and now this discussion is being reduced to rehashing what I've already said. Please thoroughly read my post before telling me my posting is only about lurkers, because what I propose is also about establishing the foundation for a winning town by encouraging participation and clarity. I feel I've talked this point to death, and I sincerely hope the town gets behind it. My biggest fear is that we will cherry-pick the most outspoken guy we can find, a couple of his posts read scummy, and he flips town. One final point I'd like to mention is this makes yet another person that's come at me after voting for aRyuujin. If nothing else, it makes aRyuujin even more suspicious in my eyes. I would like to hear from other townies here if you find my case any less concrete than some those made against other members. The very fact that voting for aRyuujin has stimulated this much discussion leads me to believe I'm onto something. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Now is the time to get behind a lynch candidate, and that is the intention of this post. I know a few of you are discontent with my proposed policy lynching, but I will not apologize for my actions to date. Even though it's looking like there's not going to be a "lurker lynch" day one, good still came from it. aRyuujin went from basically a mute to providing some discussion. I had nothing wrong with his haiku, but it really wasn't providing the content or clarity the town is looking for. That being said, that it took so much effort for him to change things up leaves me suspicious. I sincerely hope that all his future posts look like his last couple, where actual content and opinion are provided. He's not clear from my suspicions just yet. I'm providing some further analysis below. Unfortunately, we're very close to the voting deadline, and he isn't the candidate my vote goes to so I'm spoilering this one for clarity. + Show Spoiler + On July 28 2012 14:02 aRyuujin wrote: Last post for the night @Keir: yeah, I'll stop haikus lol @goodkarma: You're still the only one who believes I'm scum, and you're definitely entitled to your opinion. However, it seems like you made up your mind that I'm scum before you found any legit evidence, just to show that you contribute, and are just cherry picking random junk to back you up. You say, However, darthpunk isn't coming after you, he's pointing out that you're not contributing. When you say It seems as if you're accusing Keirathi and DP as Mafia as well. (they're bailing me out?) Now, let's think about this for a minute. If you lynched me, and I flipped red, the obvious step would be to lynch them. What kind of real mafia would defend scum with such little lynch threat? Though you say that If you lynched me, and I flipped green, then town is no better off than before. This whole tangent does NOT show that Darthpunk or Keir are red OR green, and any reasoning you try to do based on my green flip (assuming there's nothing insane posted) is pretty much WIFOM. Nowhere in your defense do I really see anything that removes you from my suspicions. You talk about "cherry-picking random junk" and that seems to be what you're doing here. You're right that if you flipped town, there would be no guaranteed innocents. You also neglect to mention that if you flipped mafia those who didn't vote for you aren't necessarily guilty. What I was looking at is the bigger picture. I don't see one action as explicitly making someone confirmed scum (in most cases), but a set of smaller actions that fit together like a puzzle. The vote history would provide a part of this puzzle. This is all I'm getting at with the statement you're quoting. You're the one who implies that Keirathi and DP would be mafia as well if you flip red. I will be keeping a close eye on you. It's really not that anything you've said wouldn't fit the role of a townie. It's the amount of pressure I had to put on you for you to start adding meaningful content to the forum (this or it was randomly upon Keir's request... either way suspicious). I must confess, though, that since you've actually started talking there are scummier looking people than you, and a lynch vote on you would be wasted. #FOS: aRyuujin We'll leave it at that. Since I'm still not 100% convinced that anyone is scum right now, I'm going to look at the worst case scenario. The person we lynch flips town. This makes the candidate for lynching much easier to choose. Golbat has flip-flopped on candidates several times. He seems content to try to form bandwaggons around candidates with what I consider to be a lack of satisfactory analysis of his own. This seems to be a general sentiment of several others voting for him, so I'll leave their well formulated analysis (which I mostly agree with) to stand in right now for why I'm behind this lynch. The one thing I want to add to the "Lynch Golbat" case is that even if he flips town, bandwaggoning is only going to hurt the town. Townies need to look through the arguements and think for themselves if we're going to have a shot at winning this. His multiple efforts to form bandwaggons around candidates along with his weak analysis indicates he's either a bad mafia or bad townie. If he's scum we're that much closer to winning. And if he's town: lynching a bad townie day one is still bad, but it should at least add clarity to town discussion, which is a good thing. Just very briefly, why not shady sands?: I feel that shady sands is still suspicious, mainly due to his misrepresented stats on day one lynches which he has tried to address. But he has provided some meaningful discussion for the town, and hasn't jumped on every bandwaggon he sees... I hope that everyone can get behind a candidate before the deadline. We're dangerously close to a no-lynch, and Golbat has done enough scummy things to deserve a vote. ##unvote aRyuujin ##Vote Golbat PS: + Show Spoiler + I've kind of rushed this post due to deadline. If you find anything unclear please let me know... | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On July 29 2012 06:56 MrMedic wrote: I am back, I am very sorry I was unexpecditatly very busy. But now my sechdule is free. Welcome back. Since you skipped out on the vote, I think it's only fair you give us an update on who you feel is scummy and why. I've read through some of your posting history, and understand that what you've been posting to date is fairly consistent with how you've posted with other threads in the past. I feel I may have come down a bit hard on you earlier with your first attempt at real analysis. I just want to ask you not to feel discouraged, and encourage you to give it another try . This is a newbie game after all, and we're all still trying to figure out how to play this game.And regarding some general questions about a few of my actions, most of it I feel I've already covered in prior posts and will not repeat myself here. There is, however, one point that I would like to discuss a little further. And that is why I selectively set out after aRyuujin. I laid out a few other "lurkers," including people such as MrMedic, Obvious, and Zorkmid. So why did I only set after aRyuujin? It had to do with two factors: 1) posting history and general activity outside this thread 2) writing style and post readability Why aRyuujin sticks out here: 1) I will confess I was a little more whimsical in choosing him on this point than I should have been. I remember looking at one of his posts that was two hours later in another thread than his last mafia post and going "Why didn't he post again in the mafia thread? He still hasn't contributed anything..." But in retrospect, I stand by my decision. Stylistically he doesn't always use haiku in his posts. This choice could have been intentional, so it warranted further investigation. 2) Obviously, haikus obfuscated everything he posted, hiding any real chance at reading his intentions. I may have come across as some madman who wanted to lynch only on policy and not on other qualities but there is some method to my madness. It's been brought up that I should have gone after all of them. The problem with that is that I only have one vote. It would be kind of meaningless to pressure all the people on my "lurker list," as they could just sit there and be like "my bad." You pressure one of them with a vote and you can get a real response, as was the case with aRyuujin. With the day passed, and our first flip, I plan on making a rather lengthy analysis thread on top suspects. I promise to have it before night ends, but don't expect to see it for several hours. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
I've finished reading through all the filters again, and have some new thoughts on who is scum. I have decided to follow the advice posted by alan and postpone discussion of those thoughts until day 2 begins in a few hours here. It seems everyone else is doing the same... I would, however, like to make a few comments on the Golbat debacle. While Golbat certainly is to blame for not sticking up for himself, so is the town for voting him. Very obvious, but one of the bigger issues I have with some people's current scum-hunting tactics is they think that scum just have to present in one or two very particular ways. And I will confess I have been guilty of this too... Things like: Scum are sneaky. They hate to make coherant arguements against players. They love to slip up on statistics that don't really have much bearing on their arguements. They can only sit back and lurk (yeah, I was guilty of this one...). Everyone plays scum a little differently, making finding them not a science but an art form. Looking back at the Golbat lynching, I couldn't help but notice that while he played badly, he did it consistently. There wasn't one "scumslip," or one particular bandwagon he was willing to ride. He was like, "I want to ride every bandwagon that presents any semblance of a case." I mentioned this too in passing, that he was either a bad town (for bandwagoning without thinking) or a bad mafia (for being so out in the open). But he wasn't afraid to change his mind. Repeatedly. And he did stick his neck out in getting behind cases, being only the second person to do so in something like 3 different spots... Mafia could do all these things, but I find it highly unlikely that they would, especially in a newbie game where I figure first-time Mafia would prefer to play more cautiously to avoid being exposed than to jump into the spotlight like that. In retrospec, and I know it doesn't mean much, but looking at how he was consistent in his terrible play and was completely unafraid to change his mind I don't see how he could have been anything but really bad town. I encourage everyone, as they're making their new cases, to not have their "scum check-list." Try to show some empathy and really assess if a town could make the posts your suspect has made. Anyway, my 2 cents. I'll catch up here in a few hours, once day 2 has begun. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Please don't read too much into: "being only the second person to do so in something like 3 different spots." This is from memory. And after taking a cursory look back, it appears he only ever put his vote behind Mordanis and Ayruujin. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
So, I was like: On July 30 2012 02:18 goodkarma wrote: Just a small update: I've finished reading through all the filters again, and have some new thoughts on who is scum. I have decided to follow the advice posted by alan and postpone discussion of those thoughts until day 2 begins in a few hours here. It seems everyone else is doing the same... I would, however, like to make a few comments on the Golbat debacle. While Golbat certainly is to blame for not sticking up for himself, so is the town for voting him. Very obvious, but one of the bigger issues I have with some people's current scum-hunting tactics is they think that scum just have to present in one or two very particular ways. And I will confess I have been guilty of this too... Things like: Scum are sneaky. They hate to make coherant arguements against players. They love to slip up on statistics that don't really have much bearing on their arguements. They can only sit back and lurk (yeah, I was guilty of this one...). Everyone plays scum a little differently, making finding them not a science but an art form. Looking back at the Golbat lynching, I couldn't help but notice that while he played badly, he did it consistently. There wasn't one "scumslip," or one particular bandwagon he was willing to ride. He was like, "I want to ride every bandwagon that presents any semblance of a case." I mentioned this too in passing, that he was either a bad town (for bandwagoning without thinking) or a bad mafia (for being so out in the open). But he wasn't afraid to change his mind. Repeatedly. And he did stick his neck out in getting behind cases, being only the second person to do so in something like 3 different spots... Mafia could do all these things, but I find it highly unlikely that they would, especially in a newbie game where I figure first-time Mafia would prefer to play more cautiously to avoid being exposed than to jump into the spotlight like that. In retrospec, and I know it doesn't mean much, but looking at how he was consistent in his terrible play and was completely unafraid to change his mind I don't see how he could have been anything but really bad town. I encourage everyone, as they're making their new cases, to not have their "scum check-list." Try to show some empathy and really assess if a town could make the posts your suspect has made. Anyway, my 2 cents. I'll catch up here in a few hours, once day 2 has begun. And then he was like: On July 30 2012 02:29 alan133 wrote: I just got back. I was called out right after breakfast and did have any internet access until now when I got back home. I just went through a few filters would like to throw out a few points I noticed, in case I die. @Keirathi After going through Kei's filter, goodkarma's case on Kei made much more sense. Kei's first page in his filter since the game started has literally zero scum hunting. He dedicate most of his post passively defending targets of other people's case. (Note: I directly copy paste text so text formatting is not preserved) I am not going to post his entire filter, look at his filter and I would be surprised if you don't agree with me. This is the only post where I found him writing a case Also, this post gives me a "funny" feeling: While there is nothing wrong to urge other players to contribute, I feel uneasy when this comes from a person where his filter consist of one case against players that are already being presented, and the rest of them were mostly him passively commenting on other people's cases, I feel like there is plausible + Show Spoiler + although speculative Keirathi also said this: Are you actually discouraging discussions here? For all I know scums can push their own agendas based on these "bad" discussions as well? @MrMedic I hope you don't miss your next vote, and since you claimed you are going to be free, (And I doubt scums would target you if you aren't one yourself), I would like to see more post from you in day 2. Don't worry, if you are town, just post when you see someone doing something scummy, and don't wait for another person to say it first: It will almost paint you in the wrong light. I refrained from looking at Shady Sands and Mordanis because the filters that I have been reading the entire time was theirs + Golbat's. I noticed So looks like you will be FoS me too, since I have been giving "excuses about IRL commitments"? I think it is best to declare when you're available to play so when you're being called out at least people knows you won't be around to response. That said, it's late over here so I won't be around in 8 hours, so in case I got killed, please consider my points here. But then, I learned something... I could still use the quote above and waste zero space. + Show Spoiler + On July 30 2012 02:29 alan133 wrote: I just got back. I was called out right after breakfast and did have any internet access until now when I got back home. I just went through a few filters would like to throw out a few points I noticed, in case I die. @Keirathi After going through Kei's filter, goodkarma's case on Kei made much more sense. Kei's first page in his filter since the game started has literally zero scum hunting. He dedicate most of his post passively defending targets of other people's case. (Note: I directly copy paste text so text formatting is not preserved) I am not going to post his entire filter, look at his filter and I would be surprised if you don't agree with me. This is the only post where I found him writing a case Also, this post gives me a "funny" feeling: While there is nothing wrong to urge other players to contribute, I feel uneasy when this comes from a person where his filter consist of one case against players that are already being presented, and the rest of them were mostly him passively commenting on other people's cases, I feel like there is plausible + Show Spoiler + although speculative Keirathi also said this: Are you actually discouraging discussions here? For all I know scums can push their own agendas based on these "bad" discussions as well? @MrMedic I hope you don't miss your next vote, and since you claimed you are going to be free, (And I doubt scums would target you if you aren't one yourself), I would like to see more post from you in day 2. Don't worry, if you are town, just post when you see someone doing something scummy, and don't wait for another person to say it first: It will almost paint you in the wrong light. I refrained from looking at Shady Sands and Mordanis because the filters that I have been reading the entire time was theirs + Golbat's. I noticed So looks like you will be FoS me too, since I have been giving "excuses about IRL commitments"? I think it is best to declare when you're available to play so when you're being called out at least people knows you won't be around to response. That said, it's late over here so I won't be around in 8 hours, so in case I got killed, please consider my points here. Spoiler long quotes instead of padding your posts and drowning discussion. If you're thinking of posting an unspoilered long quote: DON'T DO IT | ||
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Great story though. Five stars . | ||
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Wouldn't usually waste a post stating this, but one-line fluff posts seem to be all the rage.. -_- (MrMedic and Zorkmid...) Tbh it shouldn't really matter exactly how no one died last night. Now that Golbat has flipped, and day two has begun, let's not waste any time getting our cases put together. | ||
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Also, the part to Ange was written long before Promethelax's case against me, which is why that part may feel a little out of context compared to the rest of the post. Also note: because this post took so long I might not have addressed something in the last couple hours or so. I will review this thread again and see if there's something I didn't address yet, possibly as late as tomorrow morning. I have been reading and re-reading threads, and assessing and reassessing my reads. Putting my thoughts together for this post has taken way longer than I thought it would... A quick note directly to Ange: Ange, I did notice your FoS, and have read through your arguements. I still strongly recommend you look through my thread closely. I have provided some analysis of other individuals, and will be doing much more analysis here. I adopted a controversial, not-so-well liked lurker lynching policy day one, which I would hardly call "blending in," as is one of your points of accusation. Please recognize (to use an analogy directly from a mafia guide) this isn't twitter. I don't feel the need to fend off an attack when I feel the points of the case made against me are defended by some of my prior postings. Please read what I have already posted about my thoughts on scum-hunting in general, and come back and tell me what you think. I feel I have clearly stated my day one objectives. Okay, off of my soapbox, and into my analysis: I will discuss the one person I feel I have a strong scum read on right now. Unfortunately, due to the time it took to put this together, the second person I originally planned will have to wait...: Prometheax is the first of these. I'm not trying to come into a position of OMGUS here, but it really feels like his arguments were poorly put together, as if he was going out of his way to try to find statements that condemn the current subject of scrutiny to put him in a better light. I find it interesting that instead of address directly Keir's suspicions about him he decides to go after me. It feels like a move that allows him to blend in, or (in other words) scummy. Let's start by looking at what Prometheax has to say about me. I will address his case against me and my scum read on him both at the same time. First, one small thing about your symantics: You call it "A case for Goodkarma." Why don't you call it "My case for Goodkarma?" You need to stand behind what you write. A minor point, but deserves +1 scum points in my mind. But onto the arguement, with my comments in italics: On July 30 2012 10:02 Promethelax wrote: + Show Spoiler + Back, after the night deadline but still back. I feel really bad about the minimal amount of time I've been putting into this game. I would like to say I'm sorry to my fellow towines and you're welcome to all the scum players. Keir: I /in'd this game even with limited time because I really like playing this game. I find joy in it and chose to play for that joy. I had more free time when I /in'd which was about six years before this game actually started as you may remember. I recently switched to night shifts and one of my co-workers in on vacation so I'm working fifty hours weeks mostly between dusk and dawn. I am trying to put real thoughts into my posts and give you something to work with, in all honesty I think the fact that you had me so pegged in XIX should help you here, keep an eye on me look deep into my filter whatever it is you want to do. Just know that town and I hope that my posting will prove that to you. I was tunneling Shady because he is playing scummily. I am, as I write this, looking into other people and making a case or two. I've been going back and forth in my head on the issue of where scum voted, I originally thought that Golbat couldn't have all the scum on him and than I started to think, it is day one so mislynching doesn't reflect too badly on you, bad day one reads are a fact to most players of mafia, TL mafia players don't believe in thinking through day one like any other day. But a no-lynch would be a problem for mafia, they need to kill us quickly so I was wondering about the last vote(s) on Golbat maybe a scum came over to hammer him, although as town I too would switch to ensure a lynch on d1. As such I'll be looking particularly closely at SS and Zork but am not entering their filters with the assumption that they are scum based on their votes. I'd like to take a moment to laugh about this NK, that is 100% percent of my town games where there has been an unexplained lack of a night hit. @(probably)The Medic: you da man. I just want to remind you that the Roleblocker might have blocked scum so you don't have a 100% green guy and RB, the medic might have saved so you don't have a 100% red guy. It isn't worth revealing yourself over this information, keep doing what you are doing and: thanks! On Zork, I've just read through your filter and while I don't get any real scum vibes from you (besides hammering a vigi) I also don't get townie vibes. The most important thing a townie can do is prove themselves town. Make cases, your defense, while probably true that you are/were busy doesn't add anything to town just as the fact that I was working a lot adds nothing. Make some cases backed up with evidence and commit to some reads, if you are town this helps town and if you are scum this helps town since you have to appear town let me say this: if you continue without making a case I will view you as scum. Don't leave yourself so many outs; tell us what you think of somebody and why. On to a case on GoodKarma: We begin with this early assertation that lynching lurkers is not the best idea Karma wants us to look for guys who are somewhere in the middle, not lurking but not leading either. Okay, that seems reasonable, I don;t agree with his opinion but it is one that makes some sense as long as he sticks with it. So yes, this is by my definition "lurker." People who have been sitting around, post meaningless crap, and then go back to doing nothing. Unless you think I meant people who don't post at all, but I don't see how that's what you could think since those guys get modkilled. So, it would seem that I have been seeking the same type of policy lynch all day one. No surprises there... Regarding his quote below: Prometheax, why not the full quote? Oh wait, you're in it. Nothing too condemning, but interesting to note that back then you were sitting around, not posting much. Right now, you’re making your first big case. I don’t consider this suspicious in itself, but I do find it suspicious that you would deliberately “snip snip” omit yourself. And I’m no hypocrite. It’s spoilered for clarity: + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 15:12 goodkarma wrote: I'm hesitant to join the Mordanis lynch bandwagon. Mordanis's arguements were definitely incredibly flimsy, but I find it hard to believe that a mafia would stick his neck out that far when it seems many successful mafia are content to stick their heads in the sand. His opening statement indicates he desires to start a hunt for who's mafia: It's also worth noting he has not yet explicitly voted for who he accused. I don't feel we can find that guy with one flimsy lynch arguement and assume he's guilty, especially when it's the first arguement of the game. I don't see him having any investment in who's accused if he's really mafia, especially when most day one lynchings tend to hit town. I'm much more interested in seeking out those who have been somewhat active but haven't really said anything useful. Or have been active about being inactive (e.g. I have to go to the donut store be back in 12 hours k thx bye). Not saying these claims can't be legit, but if the person isn't contributing anything when they're not afk, and using irl activities as a convenient excuse for remaining inactive, that's pretty scummy to me. For these reasons, my top picks right now are: Ayruujin has had a minimal number of posts about very little. He's been lurking, and while people may disagree, I'm all for trying lurkers on day 1. We don't have a lot to go on, and it feels more probable to me that a lurker will turn mafia than someone who makes a stupid arguement and is jumping at the opportunity to get hanged. MrMedic, who's had plenty of posts that amount to nothing. He could be a bad town, but it also could mean mafia. Promethelax (to a far lesser degree), who's claiming an irl excuse. I understand irl commitments can keep us from doing fun things, but if it becomes a habit that keeps you from posting then you're on my suspect list. This is more of an example of what I consider a scummy play more than a suspect person. It's too early to tell here. As outlined above I consider Ayruujin suspect and am therefore voting for him. ##Vote Ayruujin Could Mordanis be mafia? Most definitely. But as I've discussed above I feel that his play would be a poor one if he were really mafia. Ayruujin's lurking is more suspicious to me right now. Oh...well. I guess he changed his mind based on...something? No I didn’t buddy. In this posting I’m still after lurkers. You’re making up something that just isn’t there... He follows this post with an assertion that lynching a green lurker is good for town which doesn't resonate well with me. Having one less townie is bad more townies is good. Having a pants-on-head retarded townie is still better than not having them, townies are the life blood of town our win-con is getting all the scum before they get us. We need townies alive so that MYLO and LYLO are postponed, even if the townies we have suck they are an asset to town. I said that establishing an environment of critical discussion is important, and to that end, lynching a lurker can provide some benefit to town. Nowhere did I say "let's kill our confirmed pants-on-head retarded townies." I want the "damning quote" from you here, as all I'm seeing is unsubstantiated speculation. After Golbat flips our man Karma says this Someone who feels this strongly must have defended their read in the thread and actively worked to make sure such an obvious townie wasn't lynched. oh, I see, all those things which you totally knew were townie traits were scum traits when you swapped on to him but you weren't really sure he would flip mafia. This seems like scum trying to distance themselves from a mislynch and buy townie cred for having the 'right' read before the flip. When you claim I “knew he would flip town,” you missed two very important words in that post: IN RETROSPECT. That post you are quoting is my attempt to put some light on how town can go about scum-hunting so that we don’t have another lynch like Golbat. It was a reassessment of what got him lynched and my stance on him. It wasn’t some “I told you so but didn’t stand by my convictions” post. Try to put yourself in your suspect’s shoes, and see if their actions make sense if they are town. I would say that a serious reassessment of how we hunt for scum would fit for a town. I don’t claim credit for knowing Golbat is town anywhere in that post. You either have serious issues reading, or you are desperately trying to find something that sticks to get town points. That is what I have for now. I hope you all will look at my case on SS from yesterday as I still feel that he is scummy, with this new look at Karma though I think that he may be even scummier. Right now I am torn between these two for my vote; I know its still early but I want to lynch scum our Power Role (or scum incompetence) has bought us an extra day, I plan on not letting it go to waste. This isn’t completely out of the blue. I originally had you on my list of suspects. And that is for this one post, another which you seem to have selectively forgotten: On July 29 2012 23:18 Promethelax wrote: As to your points I can't argue that I am not playing as well as I was when I knew everyone's alignment. I have to play blind which is not easy for me, I'm working on figuring out what I think of people and Shady is, in my opinion, the most scummy of players in this game. I didn't comment on Golbat/Mordanis because I think the whole thing between them is dumb. They seem (to me) to be two guys going at each others throats with a whole lot of vigor but very little proof. No cases on either of them have been convincing to me, I will look over yours again though with the no bias instead of my: ignore these nubs bias. I commented on what I had time to comment on. I don't have as much free time as I did when XIX was going on which is why you are seeing the drop in my play. ah, just read the day post. I guess I'll re-read looking at Golbat as one of us. I'm sorry I wasn't here near the end of day 1 to push Shady since pretty much anyone would have been better than a town vigi. I still feel that Shady is the most scummy player thus far but haven't yet had time to do more than a first read through the thread. I worked a 13 hour shift and I'm dead tired. I'm putting this into the thread now so that I can make sure my reads are in the thread in case I die tonight. I will be awake before the night deadline tomorrow to post again in case I feel the need to get more reads into the thread. Keir: talk to me about your thoughts on other people now that Golbat has flipped green. What connections do you see? Who is the scummiest player to you now and why? This seems like a pile of horse shit to me. Obvious is a null read for me, I'm not defending him at all. (anyone who knows they will have things that will eat into their game time should claim it, seriously) Shady really wants us to think that having to go to a wedding is a scum tell though. That is at least as silly as people saying that I am lurking while I'm at work. I could be lying about that I guess but why would I? I like playing this game which is why I signed up for it and, when I'm around, I play it like crazy. Talking about that shit is again the rules (I'm pretty sure). Keep your head down dude, we can only refer to posts outside the thread for 1) Meta and 2) nothing else. I'm quite pleased that he isn;t posting in Haiku though and I feel that stopping is a townie trait since he could have continued to post in a way that was annoying to some but not enough to get him lynched (in my opinion, I would have fought hard, assuming I was here, against a lynch based on being annoyed by his posting style) and hidden or obscured his thoughts; changing his style seems townie to me but he (super super WIFOM here) have read MTG mini 1 where Marv says almost the same thing about Mattchew and decided to replicate the strategy so, while it puts him in my green column it isn't very far in. I'll post again in an hour or so before the sleep madness takes over. Here, he tells me that looking into aRyuujin’s posting history is “illegal,” even though nowhere can I find anything that tells me it is. From looking into aRyuujin’s posting history, I inferred he had some time to make posts of higher quality than the “lurk-quality” type posts he’s put out. I’m under the impression that Prox didn’t want me probing into his own. It is my understanding this type of analysis is not against the rules, and until I’m informed it is I’m going to follow up on it. Prox has similar type patterns in one or two places. The time gaps are a little small, but given his experience in this game I am certain that if he wanted to he could have diverted the time from posting in other threads into this one to make some more analytical posts of at the quality we’ve seen today. That is my guess as to why I got this kind of reply from him, and I’m only making this statement based on his reply. Upon a cursory look at the time gaps, they seem small enough I would have thought nothing of them and moved on, except that he brought it up as something I should never pursue again. Honestly this wasn’t enough alone to make me think of him as a prime suspect, but combined with his flimsy case for me (or should I say “a” flimsy case for me) I have put him close to the top of my list. And then there was this, which gave him the first place prize: On July 30 2012 10:20 Promethelax wrote: Look bud, I want to be able to trust you. You are the player in this game that I respect the most. Give me some cases to work with that I know YOU are capable of. You are good at being town, prove to me that you are town so that we can have a town circle (town line, lol) and some town beers or wahtever it is that townies do. I'm new at this not being red (or retardedly worse than everyone else) thing. Who are your biggest scum reads right now and why. Can you say “town” enough times? It’s clear here that you feel your first large-content post has gained you trust and “townie-points” with others here. You make a power play here when you introduce the idea of the “town line.” It is certainly good for us clear each other from suspicion, and have those we can trust. But he’s just basically gone from in the background to into the forefront in a very short period of time. What motivated the change of pace? I understand this is the weekend and he has been very busy and tired during the week. Okay. But from this post it looks to me like he is trying to wedge himself into a position as a “town leader” while there’s still time for him this weekend. First, why I don’t feel anyone trying to establish themselves as a “town leader” is a good thing. It encourages town to follow a few prevailing cases like sheep. That puts the town into the position of hoping that their leaders aren’t mafia. If they are then mafia wins. Prox has already made such a play as mafia in the past, and I see no reason he couldn’t be trying to do the same thing here. What town really needs to have a shot at this is a very vocal populace producing a variety of different opinions and arguments based off their own observations and best reads. Pushing for a town leadership this openly and abruptly simply isn’t pro-town. Even if he were of the belief that an established town leadership is a good thing, how is it he would think as a townie that it is a good idea for him to step forward as a leader when with his “limited time” he can’t put in the time needed to present arguments (except maybe on weekends)? It just doesn’t make sense to me. Something doesn’t add up here. I have spent way too long typing this up. I look forward to hearing Prox’s response. His sudden change of behavior, along with some of the things he’s had to say, leaves him as my top suspect. I might come back to check up on this thread yet tonight, but I’m not typing any more involved posts like this today… sorry. That being said, you can look forward to more involved posts like this as we progress through this game . | ||
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On July 30 2012 15:58 Keirathi wrote: His response to your first point about the lurkers was a pretty solid defense. Defense of your second point about Golbat wasn't quite as solid. The "In retrospect" point only applies if he never thought about the possibilities beforehand, which seems unlikely. Saying "Mafia could do all these things, but I find it highly unlikely that they would, especially in a newbie game where I figure first-time Mafia would prefer to play more cautiously to avoid being exposed than to jump into the spotlight like that." before the "in retrospect" point, and the fact of the statement alone, seems to indicate some previous thinking on the subject. What I mean is, that sentence isn't something I feel like you would just randomly think about after a flip since its so important to how you scumhunt on day1. Aside from that, he makes some rather weak points when specifically building a case on you: the "a instead of my" thing is silly, the posting outside of thread contention I can understand a bit but still feel like you posting for short periods of time in other threads is alignment telling. Not much to say about the townie-town-town thing. You brushed it off as a joke but I had already jotted it down just in case I ever decide that you are scummy enough to pursue a case again I will say that I'm glad he has posted a case though. It's something to think about. Yes, the mafia part, too, was in retrospect. I'm only going to say this once, and I know the mafia gods will cry when I do (as it's been said here "noobiness is not an excuse"), but this is my first game. As I'm playing, I started with a one-dimensional view of how to do things based off a few guides I've read and have been growing and developing an idea of how the game is played as I go. If you are truely curious where I was inspired to "lynch lurkers" on day one, here it is. Go at it. You might also see in the thread they don't take the end of a lurker that happens to flip town as the world's worst thing. And NO, I'm not claiming vigi or cop, this just happens to be where I got the idea from (specifically, the vigi part). http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=232671 I took general advice, and I forged it into my own general policy. I had some idea of things that are "scummy:" inaction, indecisiveness, "blending in with the crowd," redirection, etc., but that didn't mean I was going to trust any first impression or "read" I might get at the first few posts in the thread. As the game has progressed I feel I've gotten a better feel for how I'm supposed to play. The post you're referring to is entirely in retrospect. It's a "I learned something today" - type post intended to not only shine light into how town can avoid lynching a Golbat in the future and why, but also as a kind of introspective look at how I can play better. In it I talk about one aspect of play that I still feel strongly about, and that's empathy. If you are to look at my pursuits on day one they are all towards my one policy. If you look at day 2 you see one rather long and lengthy post that is a complete pain to read through. This is my first real attempt at making a case "based on reads." I intend to improve on this and get better as I go. But what you should see is a developing player that is unafraid to stand by his convictions and make mistakes. I ask that you assess my actions. I'm confident you, and the rest of our forum friends will find play completely consistent with a town player. I'm honestly seeing the case against me as more of a referendum of my unpopular day one policy than a legitimate case. I'm starting to put together cases as I go in my head (putting them on paper is still really hard for me though), and that should be more than enough right now. I honestly don't know what more town could ask of me, especially given I feel I'm contributing more than the majority of this forum is right now. If you truely think I am mafia, and "loud mafia are easy to spot," then you can rest easy knowing that I'm going to be an easy future lynch. I don't plan on backing off into the lurky abyss now. I plan to continually provide new analysis and discussion. All that I ask is that all of you provide a good critical eye so I might improve along the way. I know Prox has asked about a "mystery suspect," and unfortunately a significant portion of that was based off of the "objectionable evidence" of out-of-forum history. I do have a list of different people I find suspicious. I would appreciate some understanding here, as each case I make will probably be a long, flowery post until I learn how to make my cases a little more succinct and readable. Such flowery cases take lots time. And there's also the matter that I'm not done with my case with Prox yet, and until I am I don't feel the need to name more suspicious individuals. That just leaves wiggle-room for mafia. What's more I'm not convinced by what Prox has said so far about town leaders. I would like to hear from him more about why having a few town leaders is a good thing for town, and how he feels he would be in a trustworthy position to assume such a role. The difference between his posting now and his posting even a day back is night and day, and why he chooses now to try to make his first real case leaves me confused, especially considering it's immediately after he was considered to be a person of suspicion by (and I'm basing all of this off the history posts that the two of you have talked about here) the person he holds in this game with the highest esteem as a mafia player (Keir). It feels like a play of redirection. I am not ready to back off of my case against him until I hear a little more from him. Last post of the night. Good night all . | ||
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@alan: Thanks so much for this advice! This is exactly the kind I needed to hear. My concern with giving multiple suspects was more along the lines of what if one of those people is guilty and the other two are innocent? The guilty party has the strongest scum read. Wouldn't giving multiple suspects just make it easier for the mafia to get behind one of the two innocent lynch targets, than if you stuck with the person you consider most suspicious? But you suggest from actual in-game experience that only giving one player may be even more damaging when you have multiple scum reads... I can follow your line of reasoning, and can agree with it. I understand that Prox is looking for more transparency from me, and I feel that presenting an arguement like alan's would have been more helpful than tossing his vote. The reason for keeping my suspects "mysterious" is this fear that the mafia can use that list against town. @Prox: With all that being said, quickly I would like to address my case against Prox. Honestly, I don't think you can provide what I would consider to be a good defense for your sudden change of behavior, as I'm not very forgiving of the "my schedule" defense (even if it's very plausible). I'm going to do my best reading your actions going forward. While I still feel your case against me was hastily (and thoughtlessly) constructed, and am skeptical about the timing of your actions, I do believe that what you've done in day two has generally been pro-town. You've generated constructive discussion (even if it's against me), and you've provided what for me at least is an interesting perspective on how a winning town can be run. It would be even more helpful if you could provide a link to your statement about town leadership. I have a list of several people I've considered possible scum. And, as I said prior, a strong part of my basis for my "number two" pick was out-of-forum activity. My case against him is certainly weaker without this component, but I'll give what I have without it. Along those lines, I'll mention a few other things I've found scummy about certain people and see what others think. My number two pick was: aRyuujin. Without forum history, the obvious other components were: his choice of a haiku style, and the sudden change to a more legible style when pressure was put on him. Also, he became active at the points in time where he came under attack, and for his Golbat vote, only to disappear off the face of the planet again right after. He proved with both his Golbat post and his defense posts that he is capable of making higher-quality posts. The discrepancy in his posting history (going from low-quality to high-quality to low-quality feels like he's doing just enough to get by) for this thread feels scummy to me. I also found this potential "scum slip:" After my first accusation against him he posts: On July 28 2012 09:24 aRyuujin wrote: + Show Spoiler + I don't feel the need to address your other points If you want, I will Spoilers are used so My thoughts about each issue are well organized People will not read a wall of text- example: MrMedic's post It's odd that you are out to get me, though noone else believes in you I feel like a scum would get his buddies to help You still feel like town I go on to make a post that suggests it would be possible that his mafia friends could get behind him. His defense is this: On July 28 2012 14:02 aRyuujin wrote: Last post for the night + Show Spoiler + @Keir: yeah, I'll stop haikus lol @goodkarma: You're still the only one who believes I'm scum, and you're definitely entitled to your opinion. However, it seems like you made up your mind that I'm scum before you found any legit evidence, just to show that you contribute, and are just cherry picking random junk to back you up. You say, However, darthpunk isn't coming after you, he's pointing out that you're not contributing. When you say It seems as if you're accusing Keirathi and DP as Mafia as well. (they're bailing me out?) Now, let's think about this for a minute. If you lynched me, and I flipped red, the obvious step would be to lynch them. What kind of real mafia would defend scum with such little lynch threat? Though you say that + Show Spoiler + If you lynched me, and I flipped green, then town is no better off than before. This whole tangent does NOT show that Darthpunk or Keir are red OR green, and any reasoning you try to do based on my green flip (assuming there's nothing insane posted) is pretty much WIFOM. @Darthpunk: I'm hesitant to take suspicion off of golbat, mainly because claiming inexperience is a HUGE scum trait. He has spent a tremendous amount of time doing 2 things: a)Changing his mind b)talking about his noobiness Those are two big scum tells because the first makes it look like he contributes without actually contributing (i tried to mention it earlier, but haikus are difficult to convey thoughts through), and the second helps play away scum tells. (Oh, that (referencing scum moves) doesn't help? I thought it did... etc.) @Mordanis: I probably jumped on your Shady bandwagon too soon. If someone lies at this point, though, and we can prove it, I definitely believe they are target number 1. I doubt I'll be posting in time again for the deadline, therefore it's important that I vote here: I'm voting Golbat because of the 2 reasons I mention previously: He spends most of his time changing his mind/talking about how noob he is. ##vote Golbat What worries me here is that it isn't obvious that if he flipped red those who defended him are mafia so why would he say this? Also his belief that "scum buddies" will present themselves readily one moment (first post), then that they will behave in a more intelligent manner the next (second post), strikes me as odd. Tell me what you think. Just briefly for the other two For MrMedic, regarding his "proposed Golbat lynch" after-the-fact: On July 29 2012 08:19 MrMedic wrote: I tried to avoid looking at who was lynched until after, honsest T_T In other words, he looked lol. It's pretty evident from his arguements against Golbat that he just went with the prevailing opinion of the thread. By the way, I asked him who his current suspects are at about the time he posted that. He's posted since, but still never responded to me  .Also on my list was Obvious for having what I considered to be a weak case against Shady, and obviously differences in his in-game posting history between pre and post-game. However, he has posted rather prolifically as of late. I need to sit down and reassess my read on him. I hope that's satisfactory for you Prox. If I were to vote today, it would be for aRyuujin yet again. But I need to go through all the arguements before the deadline and see if there's anything I've missed. I've spent so much energy making my case against Prox and defending myself that I'm pretty far behind in reading certain people's posts (namely everyone that isn't Prox or myself -_-). | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
It clearly states in the thread that I was following Alan's advice. I was afraid that by posting something wrong and dieing, I would be leading the town into another mislynch. Alan has since then brought up the point that it wasn't that impressions were posted, but rather that the people in his game who were night-killed had tunnel vision and were only pursuing single suspects. In other words, yes. Not posting my impressions at night was a mistake, and I realize that now. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On July 28 2012 01:48 aRyuujin wrote: aRyuujin/MrMedic + Show Spoiler + Suspecting me-Smart I did not yet provide posts Either i'm scum or A really bad Town. Mr Medic comes to mind For these reasons too On July 27 2012 11:53 MrMedic wrote: Ok, I am sorry about all these little posts I am doing. I am new to the game and am kinda reluctant to do a big first post but I will try now since everyone is telling me to post something worth while (I agree also). First, I agree with Darthpunk for a variety of reasons. The largest reason in all of this is that he is constantly saying contradictions with him self. Saying that we should lynch Mr K in his third option and he says this would be great but in the other options while saying this he says we might ruin the town more or it will be bad for the town. But the thing that most strikes me is that he says number 2 is the least probable but he says in his third option that we should lynch him now. But he says at the end we shouldn't lynch him right now. What this really shows is that he is trying to force the option one on too our minds and make us think that he just trying to take one for the team. So in conclusion, he is on top of showing what option he wants us to do. Also, he only shows the options of killing him and as a result would not be a big deal or be a good thing and even though he tress to show the negativity of the situation in actuality he steers you away from it and making it seem like a positive outcome no matter what happens. His first content post he looks he's saying stuff showing fallacies He's bandwagoning and his analysis makes little sense if you understand how mordanis was posting those were 3 what-ifs false contribution and his confusing posts lead me to believe that he's either a bad town, or a mafioso backup vote's on him Golbat + Show Spoiler + You picked mordanis super fast. I don't see why you would keep swapping. On July 27 2012 17:14 Golbat wrote: + Show Spoiler + I honestly expected more people to have read that stupid blog and judge me for it, and I don't really blame you. I can get really hotheaded and overconfident when I see a solution (or in this case, potential mafia), and begin trying to slam a square peg into the area between the circle hole and the triangle hole. I'm still not sure about your scum status, but at the same time, I want to explore all possibilities, and casting a vote before the halfway mark of the day is foolish anyways. If you're scum, it gives you time to shape up your posting, and if you're not, it gives scum time to run a train on you. Even while I was writing up my reads, I saw other people who could be scum just as easily as you. But now that I've been able to refocus, I really think I should give other people some space to talk, especially because half the town hasn't even really contributed, and that's never a good thing. I do want to state that whatever my read are in my previous post, they should not be taken as me being 100% certain of a person's innocence/guilt. DarthPunk and Shady could easily be scum too, but I think that before we come to conclusions, we have to look at the big picture, and that hasn't really been completely painted yet. Over here, time wastes You continue to take back and go back on mord On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote: The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read. I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is ##FoS Mordanis It's not the flat-out vote that it was before, but I still don't trust you. I've heard several times to trust my reads, and so this is my position. We'll see what happens between now and lynch time. + Show Spoiler + but for real now, I need to step away from the thread for a few hours But here, you go back without a new catalyst you appear to help but really, you're not (a super scum thing to do) ##FoS Golbat I plan to vote you but it could easily change depends on the thread Mordanis + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 21:22 Shady Sands wrote: EBWOP: Just realized I forgot to slot in why Mord's post makes me want to hold off to Day2/3--Mord highlights "drawing attention to himself" and a willingness to stand up for his beliefs as keystones of his in-game habits. The thing with this playstyle is that playing as a "noisy scum" is very hard to keep up over 2 or 3 in-game days, because in a game as small as this, the analysis will very quickly start to shift in the right direction and noisy attempts to derail become more and more risky as the posts pile on--inevitably a fairly major scumslip will be made. By committing publicly to this sort of strategy, we can judge Mord the following way: if Mord continues to play loud and does not get quiet over the next few days, then Mord will either burn out quickly and scumslip or prove that he is not scum. If Mord quiets down after Day 1, then his above post basically consigns him to becoming an easy lynch--especially if Golbat flips blue/green. Shady's last edit summarizes why we dont vote for mordanis If he's mafia he will be a free kill soon if he's not, why vote Here is aRyuujin's first and only place where he provides some semblance of analysis. I invite you to look at his talk of Golbat and Mordanis. Here, he pretty much just takes the stance of others before him without contributing anything (namely Mordanis's, and later, SS's opinions on golbat and Shady Sand's opinions on Mordanis). His talk of MrMedic is the only place I've found where he's contributed any sort of opinion of his own on lynch suspects. So, I will grant aRyuujin one townie point for that. He goes on to discuss his arguement against Shady, which is conveniently Mordanis's: + Show Spoiler + On July 28 2012 06:44 aRyuujin wrote: No good townie would try for such a bad gambit that early day 1 But it makes me think Why would a mafioso Lie obviously? But the one thing that also struck me is how indecisive he is. Look at a couple of posts on the subject: At Golbat: On July 28 2012 01:48 aRyuujin wrote: I plan to vote you but it could easily change depends on the thread Depends on the thread? What about on his defense? It seems in your mind you've already condemned him without giving him a chance, but that you want to make it look as if you haven't made up your mind so nothing backfires on you. Also, you discuss your opinion that voting early is an "unintelligent thing to do," which certainly is true if you don't want to stand out.: On July 28 2012 14:28 aRyuujin wrote: I FoS'd him, but I'm not gonna vote that early, no intelligent player would. And barring another Prox intervention, I will admit this evidence: On July 29 2012 06:27 aRyuujin wrote: I'll be here for the next couple of hours. Wow, that sucked. Really wish he just claimed though, when he realized that he was a lynch possibility. To be fair, I still think his actions were the most scummy so far, and I definitely would make that vote again. At the very least, on this day, he has been around but not posting, and has told us so in this thread. So allow me to summarize my case, as I've brought to your attention a few items here, but there's others scattered in some of my other postings. Admittedly, some of the scummy traits I've posted about aRyuujin are small. But I believe that when you put the pieces together, aRyuujin fits far better as scum than he does as town.: Indecision: As is demonstrated, by the two quotes above: he is willing to plan on voting for someone but only will if it's okay based on the thread. Further, he would be unwilling to get behind someone he feels is scum with an early vote. Posting history: There is at least one confirmed case of him deliberately passing up on the opportunity to post and provide analysis of his own position. Some other small, earlier points: -He has a few confusing bits of logic he's posted that just aren't true, such as his "if he's mafia," people x and y who defended him are too." I've discussed this in a prior posting and won't elaborate here. -He chose haiku as a posting style, which made getting a read on him twice difficult, and may have been deliberate. He didn't quit until he was called out for it. -He spoilered his first analysis, as though he didn't want to take ownership of it, and stopped when he was called out for it. "Blending in" without contributing: He hasn't contributed anything and has rehashed other people's ideas as his own "opinions," with the possible exception of his MrMedic comment. I hope to hear from Ayruujin soon on my case against him. I would like him to know I am looking at this case with an open mind. Presently, he looks very scummy to me, and I want to hear from him a little bit about his posting habits and why it is that he has been content to get behind other people without contributing anything of his own. I plan to look through and consider other people's cases before placing my vote, as I'm still a little behind. I will be sure to provide a little commentary on them and my reasoning for my vote in said upcoming post. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
I'd like to check in and make a few comments regarding what Prox has to say against me in his explanation for his vote. First, I'm a little unsure how someone spends the time and energy to put together 27 pages of work in his vote post only to leave out any discussion of everything I've said in my defense to his original arguement. If Prox is truely "pro-town," then I would have thought he would have addressed everything I've brought up in my defense so town could be well-informed of all of the arguements and facts involved in this case. I know that he has read it, because it is a nested quote in his vote post. And instead of addressing any of my arguements, all he says is: "I really like my case." And then we have his "new evidence" that he has tacked on: On July 31 2012 18:33 Promethelax wrote: Since this case he has continued to play in a way that makes him seem scummy to me. IN this post which follows on the lack of NK he says which is odd given that he had been playing as if he was sure he would live to the morning and this is a really subtle way to say to people “I'm town too, I'm scared of dying” without coming out and saying that you are town. He follows that up with + Show Spoiler + On July 30 2012 07:58 goodkarma wrote: Okay. I'm putting together my notes and writing my long-promised suspect list. Wouldn't usually waste a post stating this, but one-line fluff posts seem to be all the rage.. -_- (MrMedic and Zorkmid...) Tbh it shouldn't really matter exactly how no one died last night. Now that Golbat has flipped, and day two has begun, let's not waste any time getting our cases put together. So, first you believe showing relief to still be alive would be suspicious for a townie to do when his name is spelled out in the night post like that? And then you believe it would be suspicious for a townie to tell people to stop worrying about details that cannot presently help them and go back to scumhunting? To be completely honest, I'm really not sure a response to this is "additional analysis" is deserved since it feels like a complete stretch to me that someone would add these quotes at all to "a case on goodkarma." Again your case feels hastily constructed, especially since you consider those two quotes to be "since your case" when in fact they are hours before you posted your case. A small detail, but one I don't take lightly. It suggests to me that you are going out of your way to try to make a straw case for me, and desperately try to find anything that could stick. I would imagine an investigative town would put more time into double-checking the facts. And what bothers me most is I'm having trouble determining your motive. You claim I "look scummy" to you, and you have some points as to why. I demonstrate to you and the rest of this forum that your points are flat-out wrong. Your esteemed buddy, Keir has analyzed my defense, and because I don't try to conceal points of discussion as you seem to I leave my entire posted response for everyone to see and judge for themselves.: + Show Spoiler + On July 30 2012 18:00 goodkarma wrote: Yes, the mafia part, too, was in retrospect. I'm only going to say this once, and I know the mafia gods will cry when I do (as it's been said here "noobiness is not an excuse"), but this is my first game. As I'm playing, I started with a one-dimensional view of how to do things based off a few guides I've read and have been growing and developing an idea of how the game is played as I go. If you are truely curious where I was inspired to "lynch lurkers" on day one, here it is. Go at it. You might also see in the thread they don't take the end of a lurker that happens to flip town as the world's worst thing. And NO, I'm not claiming vigi or cop, this just happens to be where I got the idea from (specifically, the vigi part). http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=232671 I took general advice, and I forged it into my own general policy. I had some idea of things that are "scummy:" inaction, indecisiveness, "blending in with the crowd," redirection, etc., but that didn't mean I was going to trust any first impression or "read" I might get at the first few posts in the thread. As the game has progressed I feel I've gotten a better feel for how I'm supposed to play. The post you're referring to is entirely in retrospect. It's a "I learned something today" - type post intended to not only shine light into how town can avoid lynching a Golbat in the future and why, but also as a kind of introspective look at how I can play better. In it I talk about one aspect of play that I still feel strongly about, and that's empathy. If you are to look at my pursuits on day one they are all towards my one policy. If you look at day 2 you see one rather long and lengthy post that is a complete pain to read through. This is my first real attempt at making a case "based on reads." I intend to improve on this and get better as I go. But what you should see is a developing player that is unafraid to stand by his convictions and make mistakes. I ask that you assess my actions. I'm confident you, and the rest of our forum friends will find play completely consistent with a town player. I'm honestly seeing the case against me as more of a referendum of my unpopular day one policy than a legitimate case. I'm starting to put together cases as I go in my head (putting them on paper is still really hard for me though), and that should be more than enough right now. I honestly don't know what more town could ask of me, especially given I feel I'm contributing more than the majority of this forum is right now. If you truely think I am mafia, and "loud mafia are easy to spot," then you can rest easy knowing that I'm going to be an easy future lynch. I don't plan on backing off into the lurky abyss now. I plan to continually provide new analysis and discussion. All that I ask is that all of you provide a good critical eye so I might improve along the way. I know Prox has asked about a "mystery suspect," and unfortunately a significant portion of that was based off of the "objectionable evidence" of out-of-forum history. I do have a list of different people I find suspicious. I would appreciate some understanding here, as each case I make will probably be a long, flowery post until I learn how to make my cases a little more succinct and readable. Such flowery cases take lots time. And there's also the matter that I'm not done with my case with Prox yet, and until I am I don't feel the need to name more suspicious individuals. That just leaves wiggle-room for mafia. What's more I'm not convinced by what Prox has said so far about town leaders. I would like to hear from him more about why having a few town leaders is a good thing for town, and how he feels he would be in a trustworthy position to assume such a role. The difference between his posting now and his posting even a day back is night and day, and why he chooses now to try to make his first real case leaves me confused, especially considering it's immediately after he was considered to be a person of suspicion by (and I'm basing all of this off the history posts that the two of you have talked about here) the person he holds in this game with the highest esteem as a mafia player (Keir). It feels like a play of redirection. I am not ready to back off of my case against him until I hear a little more from him. Last post of the night. Good night all .And to keep everyone up to speed, Keir also expressed concern about not posting my impressions on scum suspects night one. That discussion can be found here: + Show Spoiler + On July 31 2012 11:41 goodkarma wrote: @Keirathi: It clearly states in the thread that I was following Alan's advice. I was afraid that by posting something wrong and dieing, I would be leading the town into another mislynch. Alan has since then brought up the point that it wasn't that impressions were posted, but rather that the people in his game who were night-killed had tunnel vision and were only pursuing single suspects. In other words, yes. Not posting my impressions at night was a mistake, and I realize that now. Nowhere in your post do you talk about any of this, yet these points would undoubtedly need to at least be addressed if you're "pro-town" and you're going to say "I really like and stand by my case." You're entitled to your opinion, but when two postings directly contradict each other, how can you just repost your arguement and pretend nothing happened? And then there's your "summary of my case," where you try your best to discredit my case against you. I agree with you on two points: that you were right about discussion of outside-forum activities, and that my post is very very long. However, I don't understand what "pro-town" motive you would have in omitting points in your summary that were important components of my arguements and telling others, "Don't worry about reading this here's the summary from me." Some points you "conveniently" neglected to mention: 1) the convenient timing of your original case against me, and how I considered its construction a suspicious attempt at redirection of the attention on you. 2) Concern that you were suddenly trying to wedge yourself into a position of town leadership from relative day 1 obscurity. This is a concern that others have also expressed. So what I'm trying to understand is motive. You claim to be trying to look "pro-town" right now, and you are pushing really hard on this case. Yet, as far as I can tell, all of your points have been discredited and you really haven't come up with anything new. On top of that, you have gone out of your way to omit my defense and make up your own summary of my case against you to put yourself in a more favorable light. I am tempted to consider this an OMGUS move, but honestly, with your experience I would expect you would play better than that (and maybe that's just me being naiive). Your omission of arguements and facts clearly doesn't make you pro-town. There is a hidden motive at work here, as nothing I see in your case against me has not been addressed, and yet you don't even discredit it, you ignore it. What I'm seeing is not a townie looking to expose the truth, but someone looking for blood. Until you post a really convincing arguement highlighting your motives for pursuing me with such zeal and haste that you don't even double-check simple facts before posting your case against me, your actions are the scummiest read I have to go off right now. You have earned my vote. ##Vote Prox That being said, I will still try to take a look at this thread before the deadline and provide my thoughts on the other people being accused. And that being said, please forgive me if I oversleep. I'm tired and going to bed. Good night. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
@JingleHell: One analysis post and you will have already contributed more than MrMedic has the entire game. I look forward to hearing more from you. Ange is right that inactivity is killing us. One thing that I will immediately note as suspicious is that many lynch votes this second round were very last-minute. I encourage everyone to look through voting patterns, as I suspect that at least one mafia bandwaggoned for the Prox lynching near the end when it became apparent it might be necessary to secure the lynch. I will be assessing the strength of everyone's Prox lynch arguements, especially for those who stalled their votes until the last minute. My thoughts on last-minute voting: If some truely compelling evidence presents itself, a vote can be changed. Lingering around until like one hour before the voting deadline does nothing to demonstrate you believe in your arguements, and denies town access to your position until it can't realistically be considered... Stalling like that definitely isn't in town's best interest. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Day 2: Promethelax (7): goodkarma, Zorkmid, DarthPunk, Ange777, alan133, Mordanis, Shady Sands goodkarma (2): Promethelax (voted, unvoted, then re-voted), Keirathi Shady Sands (1): Obvious.660 Zorkmid (0): Ange777 - unvoted and shortly thereafter votes Prom The entire town was pretty last-minute with their votes this last cycle, with the possible exception of Prox. Prox was the first to cast his final vote, about 11.5 hours before the deadline. But some were especially late. Alan's Prox vote was a mere two hours before the deadline, making his vote a bit suspicious in my eyes. It's late enough that I perceive it as a possible scum trying to lock a lynch. Along those lines, Mordanis's vote is just about an hour before and Shady Sands's vote JUST BARELY MADE THE DEADLINE. The other suspicious vote I'd like to note is Ange's. Here's my initial impression on his switch: Ange's sudden switch on day 2 I feel is suspicious. His original vote was for Zork for "semi-lurking," and after one post he is "convinced" not to vote for him anymore. This feels a bit too sudden to me, and may not be coincidence. Especially when Zork says in that post of one of his earlier suspects, Shady Sands: On July 31 2012 22:02 Zorkmid wrote: I honestly just forgot about SS, but your accusation has led me to go back through his filter. I've noticed that he has never addressed my accusation about him. This makes Zork more suspicious in my eyes since I can't see how you just "forget" about those you're suspicious of... It felt Ange let Zork off a bit too easily here to ensure Prox's lynching. For day one vote (note: order is preserved for Golbat, it isn't preserved for shady sands) Also, I didn't preserve all votes that were unvoted here: golbat (7): Ange777, Mordanis (later unvoted) aRyuujin, Keirathi, Zorkmid, goodkarma, Shady Sands, Mordanis Shady Sands: alan133, Obvious, Prox aRyuujin: Golbat Mordanis: Darthpunk As can be seen from the bold, both Mordanis and Shady Sands snuck their votes in at the very end to secure the necessary lynch majority. They behaved similarly on day two. Except day one: Mordanis's vote went: Golbat-->Shady-->Golbat, and Shady went: Mordanis-->Golbat. That's a lot of flip-flopping and indecisiveness to show before cementing the lynch vote on an innocent last-minute. Other points worth looking into are why alan133 switched from voting Shady day 1 to voting Prox day 2, especially considering even recently he appeared to be certain that shady would flip red. Darthpunk's suspicions of Mordanis seem to have disappeared for the most part day 2, and I will need to reread his filter to find out why. So, there are some of my early thoughts. Based solely off of the voting history, I find the following people's actions suspicious: alan133, Shady Sands, Mordanis, Ange, and Darthpunk. I will be closely reviewing the filters for these people, and will have a more refined case writeup in day 3 (assuming I'm not NK'ed) for those whose actions turn out to be inconsistent. It's been said now by a few people, but I will say it again: inactivity is killing town. Assuming that our doctor or RBer doesn't get lucky again, we're down to ten people, and only 5 town vs 3 mafia if we mislynch again going into day 4. To stay in the game, we really need to lynch a red in day 3, and we're nowhere near on track to do that right now. There was just so much indecisiveness day 2, which really hurt town. What I'm hoping to see day 3 is more FoS'es and votes being posted, and earlier into the day cycle than in day 2. "I don't know" doesn't cut it. There is more than enough posting and voting history to form your opinions on. I liked that more cases were presented day 2, but if you're confident about what you've presented you should be able to FoS or vote to show you stand behind what you say. And never again should the earliest vote be 11.5 hours before the deadline. Small disclaimer: + Show Spoiler + Prox did cast a vote on me earlier than 12 hours before, but considered it only a "pressure vote." I'm asking for everyone to lay down their FoS's and votes to show who they feel are the best candidates much earlier than on day 2. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
This last will clearly took more thought and planning than the 12 minutes you took from the time of night post to get it into this forum. I am very inclined to believe your claim, to the point of considering you from this point forward "confirmed town." And with that distinction, I expect you to shoulder possibly more than your fair share of the responsibility for pushing forward your cases for best scum candidates. Given how indecisive this town is, this is pretty much the last day town has to get its first scum. I just don't see the remaining town agreeing if it gets to 5 town vs 3 mafia, as all five town would have to agree on the lynch. I encourage you to increase your activity in helping us with pushing for a lynch candidate this day cycle. Thanks for bringing this to our attention, and please be as active as is possible for your schedule for this day cycle! | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Three scum is a very standard setup for this type of game. In fact, the upcoming XXIII NMM game which is being set up by the same people has three guaranteed scum. It has been brought up before that 2 is a very real possibility for this type of setup (C9++), but then again so is a serial killer. I'm under the general impression that they only followed this setup loosely, as sk wasn't even in the list of possible roles. In the back of my mind, I keep assuming there's three, and I know I'm not the only one to do so in this thread. And no commentary on my suspect list based on voting histories? I will have a more comprehensive write-up on my thoughts on this, but I feel it's an important point of discussion. I would like to hear some people weigh in on this, especially our one confirmed town. @Obvious: As Keir mentioned to you earlier, contributing nothing but your defense is not very pro-town. That is why I'm happy to see at least a little bit of discussion of your suspect (aRyuujin). I know you've also in the past occassionally made a few points against people you felt were scum, but I'd like to see some truly in-depth cases from you (more than a few bullet points). Allowing town to see your scum case arguements is honestly more important for you right now than only playing defense whenever someone throws an accusation your way if you are to establish your innocence. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Ange777: Golbat, Shady, Obvious (sustanceless posts), goodkarma, Zork, Prox, Mordanis (day 3) alan133: Mordanis, Shady, Keirathi, Obvious (D3), Zork (D3), aRyuujin (D3) Mordanis: Keirathi, Shady, Golbat, Ange777, Prox, Zork (D3) Obvious: Shady, Zork, Mordanis, Darth, goodkarma, aRyuujin (D3) MrMedic: Mordanis (weak "I agree with Darth post), Golbat (post-humously) aRyuujin: MrMedic, Golbat, Shady Sands, Mordanis (D3) Darthpunk: Mordanis, Prox goodkarma: aRyuujin, briefly: Obvious, MrMedic, Zork; Prox Shady: Mordanis, Golbat, Zork & Obvious (light), Prox Zork: Golbat, Shady, goodkarma, Jingle (MrMedic replacement): Shady, Ange777 This is a lot of seemingly random information! So why bring this up? JUST ABOUT EVERYONE has at one point or another shown enough suspicion of Mordanis to make a case against him. The only exceptions: Zork, myself, and Jingle (whose predecessor brought him up). And then there's the fact I brought to light his suspicious voting history... which means only Zork and Jingle haven't commented on him. But Jingle's predecessor commented on him, meaning that only Zork has had nothing to say about him. What I'm trying to get at here is: There's so much suspicion on him he looks less suspicious to me. It's a bit WIFOM, but I'm going to make the assumption (and it's a big one) that up until this point no scum has mounted a strong attack against one of his buddies. To this end, I don't think Mordanis is mafia, but rather a town that's played poorly. I understand how long it can take to post cases of the length that Mordanis likes to, and can genuinely understand his claim that he was busy day 2, which would explain his inactivity. His sometimes wishy-washy stances definitely are not very pro-town, but right now I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. So allow me to comment on the other people that currently are objects of suspicion: Ange: Ange seems to have a little different play style than the one I've come to expect from town. He likes to pressure other people and begin to form cases based on their reactions (rather than just form cases up-front and see what everyone thinks). It's slower play than what I would prefer to see, but I won't deny it's been pretty effective on furthering town discussion on a few suspects, including: myself and Zorkmid. I see his play to date as generally pro-town, with similarities to Keir's play-style. Obvious: I don't feel Obvious's gameplay to date is very pro-town at all. He has been very defensive whenever anyone points a finger, perhaps to the point of being irrational. I genuinely believe him when he describes how much he feels his life sucks, and when putting that in as a motivating factor for his current play, I am inclined to believe he is bad town. His arguements have never really been fully fleshed out, but the zeal with which he defends himself feels genuine to me and not of the contrived scummy kind. And now onto Zorkmid: I believe that Zorkmid is scum. Ange's case spells out several scummy parts of Zork's play. The biggest point that has convinced me is the scumslip that I originally pointed out to Ange.: On July 31 2012 22:02 Zorkmid wrote: I honestly just forgot about SS, but your accusation has led me to go back through his filter. I've noticed that he has never addressed my accusation about him. I still don't see a townie forgetting a suspect like that, especially when he hasn't brought up all that many suspects... Also, one other point that I don't think has been mentioned yet is Zork's obsession with describing all his irl events that have kept him from posting. I believe it's been established we all have our irl obligations that keep us from posting sometimes. But that he feels obligated to always describe what he's been doing irl makes him look scummy to me. Not only that, it isn't pro-town, since it takes time away that could have been better spent putting some real analysis into discussion. ##FoS: Zorkmid Another suspect that I would like to bring up is aRyuujin. I strongly feel that it is time to lynch him. As I have described in the past, everything that he has posted to date has been meaningless rehashings of other people's arguements. Day three, this hasn't changed: + Show Spoiler + On August 02 2012 11:24 aRyuujin wrote: I'm suspicious of Mordanis now, mainly because of the sudden shift in his play. Initially, he's really into scum hunting. He's a somewhat controversial figure, but people seem to believe he's a town player, begins he's quite active in scumhunting. However, as soon as day 2 begins, he suddenly begins to quiet down. Even more important than the lack of posts is the sudden change in the posts themselves: Initially: . Quotes like this show how he behaves decisively, voting on the spot. Now, let's look at his recent behavior: His discussion about prome: Here, he's behaving in a way that contrasts greatly with his previous actions. He no longer is the decisive scum hunter. Now, he's merely confused. This continues on to here, where he votes. Once more, however, he's markedly different from the active townie persona he portrayed earlier. Also important to note is the change in activity. Previously, he was one of the most active contributors. Now, he's slid down the scale quite a bit (content wise, he still has more fluff posts). However, this reasoning isn't nearly as solid, because he might just be more busy. Coupled with the change in behavior, however, I'm led to believe that ... Mordanis has changed because he wants to avoid scum slips. This happens a lot, where a very 'loud' player all of a sudden quiets down or changes suddenly. And it's oftentimes because they want to avoid a scum slip. Therefore, I'm ##FoS Mordanis. Compare this to Darthpunk's earlier posting on Mordanis a little earlier on the very same page: + Show Spoiler + On August 02 2012 10:49 DarthPunk wrote: Hey guys. Just woke up and am going to dive into some Mafia! First of all I am all but convinced that Shady Sands is Mason. The slip is there, and he would have had to fabricate that day 1 with almost nothing to go off. So 99% certain that SS is green. I am going to go back through each of Keirathi and SS filters and see if they were onto anything. I do know however, that both have been suspicious of Obvious. I already had my eye on him and I am going to look through his filter very closely. @goodkarma, There is a post in my filter that addresses my position on Mordanis. At the point I posted that many people had stated they had small town reads on him and no one was contributing or commenting on my case against him. Whilst I did (and still do) have a scum read on mordanis the fact that my case was generating zero discussion and a fear that I was victim of confirmation bias. I felt that I was being unproductive by focusing on him too much. That being said, I have been following mordanis closely and there continue to be unresolved questions around him. Off the Top of my head I will state a few things that are wrong with mordanis. Day one he lead 3 cases against 3 now confirmed townies. He pursued them very aggresively but none of his cases had much merit. The first one he admitted to being dishonest with (didn't really believe there was a case on keir) and was based purely on WIFOM. + Show Spoiler + On July 28 2012 10:46 DarthPunk wrote: Good morning Everyone. First up some thoughts. Golbat I spent the majority of last night reading their filters trying to make sense of it. And it was seriously a mess. From the OMGUS accusations onward. Golbat flip-flops like it is going out of style. And Mordanis still uses a large amount of WIFOM to justify his arguments which just make it more difficult to understand what he is actually saying. One of mordanis' key arguments (claimed scumslip) against golbat was this While it is true that this may be used to hop on whatever bandwagon he wants without fear of reprisal. in the context of the conversation and a simple search through his filter says otherwise. Go read the thread. He was THE FIRST to cast suspicion onto Mord. Mordanis case is built upon the fact that he had insurance to jump on any bandwagon he wanted without fear of reprisal and then jumps on a bandwagon on him. Golbat almost immediately casts suspicion onto Mordanis, then states he may already have an idea of who may be scum. Yep, it seems like he was just backing up his previous claim of mordanis' scumminess. Mordanis Mordanis goes from pushing golbats case and 'scumslip' heavily, to voting shady in the space of a post. We would assume that this sudden change of heart would come with some clear and strong arguements right? Wrong Now this is the post where he flips from golbat onto shady. The first half of his post is meaningless and doesn't actually provide any information or a good reason to flip from someone he had been pursuing whom he believed had scumslipped. Shady could have read Mafia games elsewhere, not just TL. So the whole lie scenario is a stretch and to me doesn't mean anything. He then goes on to speculate on a reason town would lie. This is also meaningless and fails to add anything to the Shady case. the only part of Mordanis' post which gives any clue whatsoever as to why he flipped from his scum read to shady. He meta reads. But not golbats previous game. Obvious.660's. No mention of the strong arguments brought forward about shady by prom and subsequently ange777, no analysis of shady that actually adds anything. Next post after voting shady. what does he decide to do he makes another list in a similar vein as above He talks a big game. Lied and drew heat on himself so we could start scumhunting. I don't buy it. He is not following through. He is not contributing anything of substance. He is flipflopping whilst accusing others of the same. He is not doing the scumhunting he so desperately wanted to start. The case on golbat was a reaction to him casting a vote on mordanis, and he pushed that case throughout the majority of day. But then he jumped on shady sands with an explanation for leaving his previous 'Best scum read' as reading Obvious' filter from the previous game. So he jumped onto another case after leading a mislynch hard throughout day one. contributed very little to it. Tried to manufacture a scenario in which Shady 'lied' and spent several posts muddling the conversation with his case about shady's day 1 lynch scenario, that I personally felt was retarded. So after I pressure him on jumping the ship he built and keirathi somewhat defends shady, he jumps back on to the mislynch he created. The net effect of this play? leads a mislynch whilst sufficiently distancing himself from it through his SS tangent. He then accuses Ange777 of doing something extremely similar. After day 1 his posting whilst improving in clarity and making cases based on something other than WIFOM, have dramatically altered in style and frequency, yet still contain the internal contradictions I first took issue with. His case on prom + Show Spoiler + On July 31 2012 19:10 Mordanis wrote: I'm really confused by Promethelax's play. He just admonished me for fluff posts. His entire first page of his filter is fluff. He comments on my opening case being really bad, regardless of my alignment. Look at his first FOS: + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 18:55 Promethelax wrote: I'd like to bring some attention to Zorkmid: He starts with policy talk, as we all did. Follows it up with an immediate about face when he learns about the no-lynch option He leaves hoping for more from others and after that comes back with a question and than dissapears That was over ten hours ago, I don't get it. Where did you go Zork? I don't like his play so far and, thus, a FoS is declared. On July 27 2012 07:18 Promethelax wrote: Okay Ghost, will do. On July 27 2012 07:26 Promethelax wrote: You win for my favourite response ever. If you are ever in my neck of the woods hit me up and I'll buy you a drink just for that. On July 27 2012 07:37 Promethelax wrote: Unrelated to the discussion so far after reading Shady Sands' Op here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355847 I expect awesome posts from him/her. Slim Shady: you've got some awesome to live up to. Since we haven't been productive so far I would like us to turn our attention to pressure: I for one am concerned that MrMedic may not be a medic and is lying about his role in his name. Okay, what I'm actually concerned about is that all he posted is that he is here. I want more. On July 27 2012 07:38 Promethelax wrote: EBWOP: I'm also concerned that his post was edited. Watch yourself my man or Ghost will smite you with his mighty powers. On July 27 2012 08:27 Promethelax wrote: My girlfriend got home so I don't have time to read one last time before going to work. I'll see you in 10-12 hours. Good luck town. On July 27 2012 21:49 Promethelax wrote: Alright, I'll look into their filters and see if anything is popping there. What I found, and still find weird about shady is this: + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 08:38 Shady Sands wrote: I'm not sure how Keir telling RB not to use their powers equals Keir roleclaiming as RB. Of course Day 1 roleclaiming is suspicious but this post doesn't fit the bill. But if a clear consensus emerges that he's suspicious, I'd volunteer myself to watch his posting behavior. That said, I do think Day 1 scumhunting could work--but only after everyone (or nearly everyone) has posted. I'm going to go down the list of posters now and do a quick tally. Ange777 - No posts yet Keirathi - Six posts Promethelax - More than 10 posts alan133 - 1 "GLHF" post Mordanis - Three posts Obvious.660 - 2 posts MrMedic - 1 post, edited aRyuujin - 2 posts, both haiku DarthPunk - No posts yet goodkarma - No posts yet Golbat - No posts yet Shady Sands - 2 posts so far Zorkmid - 5 posts Players in order of activity: Promethelax Keirathi Zorkmid Mordanis Obvious.660 aRyuujin Shady Sands alan133 MrMedic -- Lurkers -- Ange777 Darthpunk goodkarma Golbat Once the remaining few lurkers have posted, then we can start scumhunting. The next task is to read through past mafia games and find those with successful Day 1 scumhunts--and see what common lessons can be drawn from them. I'm going to compile a list of those right now. Where he puts a lot of bull shit into the thread and nothing real. He literally used post counts to increase the size of his filter. the other thing in here I want to focus on is his lets wait attitude. for example: from the above post and others He also says that both of these things push town away from hunting for scum, attempting to prevent scum hunting is a huge scum trait. On top of this he misrepresents the facts in newbie 21 (I think) Hopeless1der was lynched d1 as scum so scum hunting has shown to be effective recently. He also replys to my advice by saying scum will blue snipe, they will kill players who won't vote for the right mislynch or who are tunneling scum. There are a million reasons for scum to shoot a bad town player so his first point is wrong and his second point again pushes us away from scum hunting since he insists that vigi shots are our most powerful tool. No they aren't. We are the most powerful town asset and scum hunting is the most powerful town tool. His next post tells us to wait for more people to post until we make cases and the one after that is a case... Sands tells us that we should still hold off even though this guy is the best lynch target. He also tells us that he will likely flip green based on (I assume) the statistics which seems, to me, to be a way to distance himself from a Mord town flip. What originally felt scummy to me in Sands' filter was this post where he says: Re-read that. Do yourself a favour and beat your face against a hard surface. He think that Mord will flip green unless he replys in the way that he (Sands) expects him to in which case he is red...alrighty than. I also hate this post: the bolded part at the end is essentially saying that we should lynch Golbat and if he is green lynch Mord. That seems to be setting us up for two mislynches and, if Sands ever flips red these two are pretty much confirmed town. So based on Sands' play I think that he is scum. He has earned my FoS and as of this moment he would be my vote if nothing changed between now and lynch. I'll be keeping my eye on him because, as he said, just replace Mord with Sands and you see the truth of the statement. He has to keep going and, as Keir well knows, loud scum are easy to find. The other thing that confuses me is the petulance with which Promethelax is trying to become the "town mayor". Here are a few examples: + Show Spoiler + On July 31 2012 17:33 Promethelax wrote: If you have set up questions ask the host otherwise you are just wasting thread space and padding your filter while adding nothing to the thread. On July 30 2012 18:14 Promethelax wrote: Sorry I'm on my way to bed and I figured I would quickly reply to Karma before falling asleep. I am sure I'll miss some points but the basic one of why is my play so different now than it was is that I work Tuesday-Saturday. I play better on my days off. As to the town leader thing: I just spent like ten minutes looking for the quote but couldn't find it. I think it was Marv who said (and I'm paraphrasing) "town needs two things, a good annalist and a good leader; they don't have to be the same person they just both have to exist" I'm not saying I should be a town leader or a town analyst, I am saying that town is following my analysis and that I am taking things said by players whom I greatly respect and trying to forge my town play around that. If the two things that town needs are a good leader and someone with good analysis I will try to provide both. I think you and I don't see eye to eye on what a town leader is. I'm not saying we should elect a mayor, I'm saying having someone who is clearly pro-town trying to create a pro-town environment is a necessity for town. By town leader I mean someone who is creating an environment where town flourishes even if the person creating that environment has their head up their ass on every single one of their reads. Essentially, from what I've read about XIX Promethelax kind of mauled town by getting into the "town circle", and controlling the game from there. I don't think a smart person could try the same strategy against people its already been used on and expect to win again. For that reason, Promethelax's inconsistent/illogical/ seems to be a mild indicator of scumminess. Also, being relatively inactive during one day reduces the amount of stuff any player needs to defend himself later. Edit before having to double post (EBHTDP) I am still confused by large parts of his play. For instance the part about lynching semi-lurkers seems sort of like what he's doing. GK hasn't posted nearly as many times as Prom himself, myself, Keir, Ange, Obvious, or Shady. 6 players of 12 left have 3 or more pages in their filter, the other 6 have 2. GK has spent a lot of his time defending himself, so if you take that away he's pretty lurky. But the caffeine is wearing off now, see y'all in the morning. Still, I like the content he generated with that post on GK, so I'll be watching Prom closely. I seriously need to pass out now though :/ He states many reasons why he thinks prom is scummy, yet the conclusion of the post doesn't really say anything and is incredibly wishy-washy. His next post + Show Spoiler + On August 01 2012 03:54 Mordanis wrote: My opinion on whom to lynch will be heavily influenced by what Prom and SS post. I will be able to vote (don't have anything to take me away) and if neither post in like 20 minutes, I'll just go ahead without their posts. He doesn't want to commit to anyone without having as much information as possible. To me this is very scummy. + Show Spoiler + On August 01 2012 04:50 Mordanis wrote: TT Was hoping I wouldn't have to do this, but here goes. I do not understand Promethelax's play. It has been at times hypocritical, illogical, and bad. I see very little scum motivation for the way he's been playing, assuming he's a competent player. I don't see any town motivation either, so I would prefer to wait to see if he continues to play the way he has. I haven't been able to look into GK's play much, and Promethelax's case on him isn't very strong, so I can't in good conscience vote for him unless I see another good case on him. Shady is in a similar position to Prom where he's had lurky play one day and weird play the other. Still, I can't seem to pin his play in this cycle as scummy. I don't know why people are suspicious of Zork. In other words, we have kind of a lousy set of cases today, for which I hold myself partly responsible. All in all though, I feel that Promethelax is the best target. His play could be described as a way to disrupt the scum-hunt, to get into a position of town-trust, to buddy up with players to make them feel bad for voting for him. I actually feel bad voting for him at this point, but he is my strongest read. ##Vote: Promethelax The half of the post in which he actually votes for someone Is actually spent being wishy-washy and distancing himself from a mis-lynch. He doesn't give any good reasons for jumping on the promethelax vote at the last minute. Doesn't state why he feels like it is a bad choice. doesn't really say anything. His play from the Golbat lynch onwards has been like night and day, there is a Dramatic shift in style and he is spending a lot of time trying to lay low, make wishy-washy conclusions mitigate damage etc. I have always found Mordanis to be suspicious. I continue to find him suspicious. I have watched him and will continue to watch him. I am convinced that you will find, as I have, that he's contributed nothing of value here. My earlier case will be posted near the bottom of this post, but allow me to add a couple new points. First, I need to emphasize that if we mislynch here every turn for the rest of the game is LYLO for town + Show Spoiler + (I'm still assuming three town and no more doctor/RB saves.) aRyuujin, Zorkmid, MrMedic/JingleHell, Obvious All of these people remain semi-lurky, but I still believe there is a scum gold-mine waiting to be worked here. I am quite certain that at least 2 scum live amongst those four names, with Obvious being my weakest suspect right now for reasons described above. Another thing that voting for aRyuujin brings to the table is that he has already supplied Mordanis as a suspect. If he flips red, which I'm confident at this point he will, that will help affirm Mordanis's innocence. I find it highly unlikely scum will bus one of their buddies when they are this close to winning. One more point on aRyuujin: He brought up MrMedic as his "back-up vote" day one, then never came back to discuss him ever again. I don't see how he could go from having such conviction on lynching someone to totally forgetting about said person. I'll leave it up to everyone to find the exact quote. It shouldn't be hard with his sparse filter. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
My original arguement: + Show Spoiler + On July 31 2012 14:14 goodkarma wrote: As the voting deadline approaches (and no one has voted yet lol), I would like to elaborate further on my aRyuujin case.: + Show Spoiler + On July 28 2012 01:48 aRyuujin wrote: aRyuujin/MrMedic + Show Spoiler + Suspecting me-Smart I did not yet provide posts Either i'm scum or A really bad Town. Mr Medic comes to mind For these reasons too On July 27 2012 11:53 MrMedic wrote: Ok, I am sorry about all these little posts I am doing. I am new to the game and am kinda reluctant to do a big first post but I will try now since everyone is telling me to post something worth while (I agree also). First, I agree with Darthpunk for a variety of reasons. The largest reason in all of this is that he is constantly saying contradictions with him self. Saying that we should lynch Mr K in his third option and he says this would be great but in the other options while saying this he says we might ruin the town more or it will be bad for the town. But the thing that most strikes me is that he says number 2 is the least probable but he says in his third option that we should lynch him now. But he says at the end we shouldn't lynch him right now. What this really shows is that he is trying to force the option one on too our minds and make us think that he just trying to take one for the team. So in conclusion, he is on top of showing what option he wants us to do. Also, he only shows the options of killing him and as a result would not be a big deal or be a good thing and even though he tress to show the negativity of the situation in actuality he steers you away from it and making it seem like a positive outcome no matter what happens. His first content post he looks he's saying stuff showing fallacies He's bandwagoning and his analysis makes little sense if you understand how mordanis was posting those were 3 what-ifs false contribution and his confusing posts lead me to believe that he's either a bad town, or a mafioso backup vote's on him Golbat + Show Spoiler + You picked mordanis super fast. I don't see why you would keep swapping. On July 27 2012 17:14 Golbat wrote: + Show Spoiler + I honestly expected more people to have read that stupid blog and judge me for it, and I don't really blame you. I can get really hotheaded and overconfident when I see a solution (or in this case, potential mafia), and begin trying to slam a square peg into the area between the circle hole and the triangle hole. I'm still not sure about your scum status, but at the same time, I want to explore all possibilities, and casting a vote before the halfway mark of the day is foolish anyways. If you're scum, it gives you time to shape up your posting, and if you're not, it gives scum time to run a train on you. Even while I was writing up my reads, I saw other people who could be scum just as easily as you. But now that I've been able to refocus, I really think I should give other people some space to talk, especially because half the town hasn't even really contributed, and that's never a good thing. I do want to state that whatever my read are in my previous post, they should not be taken as me being 100% certain of a person's innocence/guilt. DarthPunk and Shady could easily be scum too, but I think that before we come to conclusions, we have to look at the big picture, and that hasn't really been completely painted yet. Over here, time wastes You continue to take back and go back on mord On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote: The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read. I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is ##FoS Mordanis It's not the flat-out vote that it was before, but I still don't trust you. I've heard several times to trust my reads, and so this is my position. We'll see what happens between now and lynch time. + Show Spoiler + but for real now, I need to step away from the thread for a few hours But here, you go back without a new catalyst you appear to help but really, you're not (a super scum thing to do) ##FoS Golbat I plan to vote you but it could easily change depends on the thread Mordanis + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 21:22 Shady Sands wrote: EBWOP: Just realized I forgot to slot in why Mord's post makes me want to hold off to Day2/3--Mord highlights "drawing attention to himself" and a willingness to stand up for his beliefs as keystones of his in-game habits. The thing with this playstyle is that playing as a "noisy scum" is very hard to keep up over 2 or 3 in-game days, because in a game as small as this, the analysis will very quickly start to shift in the right direction and noisy attempts to derail become more and more risky as the posts pile on--inevitably a fairly major scumslip will be made. By committing publicly to this sort of strategy, we can judge Mord the following way: if Mord continues to play loud and does not get quiet over the next few days, then Mord will either burn out quickly and scumslip or prove that he is not scum. If Mord quiets down after Day 1, then his above post basically consigns him to becoming an easy lynch--especially if Golbat flips blue/green. Shady's last edit summarizes why we dont vote for mordanis If he's mafia he will be a free kill soon if he's not, why vote Here is aRyuujin's first and only place where he provides some semblance of analysis. I invite you to look at his talk of Golbat and Mordanis. Here, he pretty much just takes the stance of others before him without contributing anything (namely Mordanis's, and later, SS's opinions on golbat and Shady Sand's opinions on Mordanis). His talk of MrMedic is the only place I've found where he's contributed any sort of opinion of his own on lynch suspects. So, I will grant aRyuujin one townie point for that. He goes on to discuss his arguement against Shady, which is conveniently Mordanis's: + Show Spoiler + On July 28 2012 06:44 aRyuujin wrote: No good townie would try for such a bad gambit that early day 1 But it makes me think Why would a mafioso Lie obviously? But the one thing that also struck me is how indecisive he is. Look at a couple of posts on the subject: At Golbat: Depends on the thread? What about on his defense? It seems in your mind you've already condemned him without giving him a chance, but that you want to make it look as if you haven't made up your mind so nothing backfires on you. Also, you discuss your opinion that voting early is an "unintelligent thing to do," which certainly is true if you don't want to stand out.: And barring another Prox intervention, I will admit this evidence: At the very least, on this day, he has been around but not posting, and has told us so in this thread. So allow me to summarize my case, as I've brought to your attention a few items here, but there's others scattered in some of my other postings. Admittedly, some of the scummy traits I've posted about aRyuujin are small. But I believe that when you put the pieces together, aRyuujin fits far better as scum than he does as town.: Indecision: As is demonstrated, by the two quotes above: he is willing to plan on voting for someone but only will if it's okay based on the thread. Further, he would be unwilling to get behind someone he feels is scum with an early vote. Posting history: There is at least one confirmed case of him deliberately passing up on the opportunity to post and provide analysis of his own position. Some other small, earlier points: -He has a few confusing bits of logic he's posted that just aren't true, such as his "if he's mafia," people x and y who defended him are too." I've discussed this in a prior posting and won't elaborate here. -He chose haiku as a posting style, which made getting a read on him twice difficult, and may have been deliberate. He didn't quit until he was called out for it. -He spoilered his first analysis, as though he didn't want to take ownership of it, and stopped when he was called out for it. "Blending in" without contributing: He hasn't contributed anything and has rehashed other people's ideas as his own "opinions," with the possible exception of his MrMedic comment. I hope to hear from Ayruujin soon on my case against him. I would like him to know I am looking at this case with an open mind. Presently, he looks very scummy to me, and I want to hear from him a little bit about his posting habits and why it is that he has been content to get behind other people without contributing anything of his own. I plan to look through and consider other people's cases before placing my vote, as I'm still a little behind. I will be sure to provide a little commentary on them and my reasoning for my vote in said upcoming post. For the reasons described above, I'm voting for aRyuujin. ##Vote aRyuujin | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Currently the tally is: 7 town, 3 mafia. While this may look like a comfortable margin, assuming none of the mafia vote for one of their own in a close vote, what you get is: To lynch a scum, 6/7 town need to vote for the same person to secure the majority. As can be seen here, and I'll bring it up again: The town must almost unanimously unite behind a single candidate for a scum to be lynched today. We are nowhere near on track to do that right now. That's why I propose this: Shady Sands is now confirmed town. He is the only person right now that everyone can trust without suspicion of alterior motives. To secure the majority and lynch a scum today, he needs to step up and tell everyone clearly who he plans to vote for and why. And everyone needs to vote for that person, regardless of if that's the "strongest read" they have or not. This is the only way we can guarantee a town majority that can lynch scum at this point. I hereby promise my vote to whoever Shady Sands chooses. As I've already highlighted, I do not believe Mordanis is the best lynch choice. In my opinion, the two best candidates right now are: aRyuujin and Zorkmid. To lynch scum town needs a leader, and being the only one outside suspicion Shady is the de facto best choice. As I've said before, we can only afford one mislynch. With a mislynch today, the tally becomes: 5 town, 3 mafia. Therefore, I implore everyone to understand the gravity of town's situation and follow my lead in following Shady's vote, whoever he chooses. I will be around for discussion if something comes up, but for now I feel I've given town more than enought to digest. I really hope that Shady returns soon to comment, as I believe that he's the cornerstone to any strategy at this point that gives town a chance of winning. Also: + Show Spoiler + I know that Shady has voted Mordanis, but I'm giving him time to reaffirm or change his vote before I commit to changing mine. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
I know that Shady has voted Mordanis, but I'm giving him time to reaffirm or change his vote before I change mine. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On August 03 2012 11:57 DarthPunk wrote: Besides the fact this makes Mord more suspicious (he has been under suspicion since day one and yet has survived two lynches) you both seem very coordinated in defending one another. You seem to be defending him on what you admit is assumptions and WIFOM. This is doing nothing but casting doubt on the very good cases against Mordanis which still have not been answered and are BEING IGNORED like the day one cases on him were. This is really weak and I don't see a Town motivation for you to use WIFOM and assumptions to cast doubt on strong cases that have not been answered once again. So what you're saying here, in other words, is: "I really like my case and anyone who doesn't agree with me is therefore against me. It's time I throw you under a bus..." I NEVER said that Mords's actions weren't suspicious, or that his play couldn't fit the play of a scum. However, I just don't see this compelling, damning evidence you seem to that shows that Mord is guilty. And as best I can see, the only way to truly "answer a case" is to lynch the guy. Mord is suspicious, but I feel that he is not the best candidate. And we don't have the luxury of another mislynch. In my opinion aRyuujin and Zork are better candidates right now. I have already conceded there might be some WIFOM in my Mord argument, so I can't see why you take such an aggressive stance. Especially since town's role is to get to the truth, not to persecute someone until lynch. My arguement brings more to the table to consider in the Mord case, and more information is always better than less. That being said: I don't expect that mafia in a noobie game are going to make really sophisticated plays, like trying to bus each other, and that's why I still feel my new analysis on Mord. is relevant. Sorry if you can't see it that way. So what's your next point?: On August 03 2012 12:09 DarthPunk wrote: To add to my previous case. So After Mord has roughly 4 votes you concoct a gambit to make everyone vote for who shady votes for regardless of what they want. Then you heavily imply that he should change his vote on mord. It was 3 votes by the way. And considering I already said that 6/7 town are needed to get majority vote this round to have any shot at lynching a scum, why is it you think mafia would feel any need whatsoever to try to sway the vote? If you haven't noticed, everyone is heavily divided in their lynch choices atm. If he is really mafia, your chances of lynching Mord are very low. I proposed to have Shady as the leader to unite all town together so that majority is easier to secure. With mafia so close to winning this game, telling town to unite under one (confirmed town) leader would be really scary for them. Your "gambit"-arguement is pretty absurd. On August 03 2012 12:03 DarthPunk wrote: OK What the Fuck? So if we mislynch we have no information whatsoever because everyone just votes for one person regardless of their read. This is Fucking Retarded. This is trying to limit discussion 16 hours out from vote. By no means am I trying to limit discussion. By all means, everyone shoud present their arguements, but Shady should make the final call. That's the only way I see town getting the majority they need to lynch a scum, especially with individuals like yourself with multiple scum reads but the determination to only try your own special candidate. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On August 03 2012 12:57 DarthPunk wrote: on zorkmid There is a case on Zork. I just feel like it is weaker than the case on Mordanis. Add that to the fact that mord is once again ad hearing to his Modus Operandi. That once again it seems like he is getting out of a lynch despite the mountain of evidence against him and without even addressing the cases against him. (which he has never done) and the fact that GK seems to be colluding to defend him, to me, without a doubt, mord is [r]scum[/r]. There is a case on Zorkmid... At least we can agree with me on that. Your out-of-nowhere conspiracy theory, though, to use Prox's words, is "Pants-on-Head Retarded." I give the town a winning strategy: Get behind a (confirmed town!) leader so we can come to a consensus and lynch a scum. This is something that no intelligent scum would do when without leadership all they need to do to win right now is sit in one spot and lurk around. Your strategy, on the other hand, seems to be: Mord. way, or the highway + Show Spoiler + (clever, huh? )#FoS DarthPunk All I hope is that Shady can rally everyone behind a candidate in time. And if he doesn't contribute any new discussion soon, I will be changing my vote to Mord to coincide with his. Even though I don't feel he's the strongest scum candidate, he definitely has done some scummy things, and to catch a scum at this time town needs to unite together. I recommend everyone to follow Shady's vote, as he's the only person right now town can trust. You may call it sheeping, but what's even worse is town sticks with their own scum reads on 2+ people, mafia lols, and no scum get lynched. TL;DR: United we stand. Divided we fall... | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
I read Mord.'s terrible Keir arguement during the opening of the game, and I have seen his wishy-washy, noncommital arguements against people such as Prox. I agree with the cases brought against him. His actions certainly have made him look scummy, but I feel they are being taken into consideration without considering if he could play the same way as town. Look at where "scum reads" have gotten us days one and two. Golbat and Prox., in my opinion, played town terribly. But just as much as it was their responsibility to prove their innocence, it was ours to determine if their motivations could fit those of a townie playing badly. While I agree that Mord. could very well be scum, from what I've seen he could also be a town that isn't playing very well. Since that perspective hasn't been contributed by others, that is what I've brought to the "Mord. case." And as for my statistics: feel free to call it speculation, but if I'm right there are scum that have also contributed to the case against him and want him lynched. As for pursuing lurky-type persons? There are about three "lurkers," all of which have acted suspiciously (aRyuujin, Zork, JingleHell), and three mafia. There is no reason to assume that all mafia this game couldn't be "lurkers." Feel free to call me biased toward only lurkers, but remember I've also made a case against Prox who definitely wasn't a lurker in day 2. On the other hand, you are definitely biased toward only finding "loud scum." And there's no guarantee scum in the "loud" category even exist this game. The bottom line: scum is scum, no matter where they come from. My strongest reads happen to come from the "lurker" category right now. I have made what I feel to be a strong case against aRyuujin, and have added to the case against Zork. I encourage you to read what I've written on them, and tell me exactly why it is my case is weaker than your Mord. case. And I am 100% certain that aRyuujin, specifically, will not contribute any more than he already has. Everything about his play screams scum to me, perhaps just as much as everything about Mord. seems to scream scum to you. And unlike everyone else here, no further evidence is going to come up to convince others that hasn't shown already since he has become methodical with his "rehash arguement, make FoS, later make vote" routine. I feel justified in pushing my case for his lynch today, because I know that if he is scum (and I'm quite sure he is), and it gets to LYLO he will get a free pass thanks to people like you, and will be able to passively win the game. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
We need 6/7 town to get lynch majority... With our current division, I just don't see that happening... I still believe that banding together around Shady was our best chance, and I hope he returns to provide his impressions with the most recently presented cases. I feel very uneasy about voting Mord. On top of the reasons I've already presented, aRyuujin, my top scum suspect, has also gotten onto that bandwaggon. If Shady comes back and decides Mord. is still his best choice, then fine. Until then: b]##unvote ##Vote: Zorkmid[/b] Zorkmid is an obvious scum. I sincerely hope that Darthpunk will change his vote. Even then, I can't help but feel that town is in trouble here. -_- I will be checking this forum again before the deadline, and will only consider changing my vote to one of the following to achieve a majority lynch: aRyuujin, JinglHells, or Shady's choice (if he ever provides an update post). Good luck all... | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
##Unvote ##Vote: Zorkmid | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
I'll say this now: Shady hasn't participated in over a day... If he had participated to any degree this past 24 hours town would have been in much better shape now. Town had a great opportunity to get back into this game by rallying behind him, but now that opportunity is slipping through our fingers... Considering the stubbornness with which both JingleHell and Zork have voted for their candidates and haven't tried to help with securing a lynch majority, it is clear as day to me that they are scum. Then there is only one scum remaining, and he is voting FOR ONE OF THE TWO CANDIDATES with four votes. With Zork pegged as scum, one of the three remaining people is also scum: alan133, aRyuujin, Darthpunk. I said before that I would stand by Shady Sands, after he had already voted for Mord. Instead of helping town, he's afked, and in the process has let town down . I am nearly 100% certain at this point that Mord. is innocent, but shady is only confirmed town meaning EVERY TOWN REMAINING would have to vote for the other candidate, Zork, for Zork to be lynched. That's simply not going to happen. And at this point, it feels just as unlikely that whichever other two town are on Mord. will be changing their votes... In other words, I'm pretty sure today is no-lynch.There is also the possibility that JingleHell and Zork would tack onto the innocent candidate bandwaggon, which could secure the majority, but would condemn them as scum. I don't see that happening, though honestly it is their best move (lol) since it would guarantee LYLO for town. Ironically, if town no lynches today, a situation I hadn't considered, town in fact still isn't in LYLO. This is a situation I hadn't accounted for, but the complete gridlock in the voting has clearly demonstrated where some of the scum are. A lot of information has been presented from voting patterns even without a lynch. So while I could switch my vote to an innocent man, and stay true to my word, I prefer hypocrisy. My plan with Shady as leader is still the best chance for town, and hopefully town will realize that tomorrow. But the biggest component of that plan, Shady himself, needs to become proactive in rallying town together for that plan to work. Further, if we were just to lynch: Zork and JingleHell the next two days, and cop were to survive, then: We could go from a 1/3 chance to catch the last scum and win to a much better chance (not 100%... the last scum could still be godfather..., ((1/3)(1/3)+(1)(2/3))*100 = ~78% if you really wanted to know). I know that some might consider everything I've just said speculation, but nothing in this game is certain. I strongly believe that today's voting patterns have pegged two scum, and provided us the place to look for the last one. I look forward to hearing everyone's opinions tonight. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
I'm happy to see you came back to life before the voting deadline .One "policy issue" I feel still needs to be addressed is if you get shot tonight who should take over as "town leader." I will not contribute any opinion as to who this should be. It's completely up to you. But to keep our votes coordinated I feel having a townie ready to take on your leadership role will be vital to our success. Assuming that no one is saved tonight, we have 8 people tomorrow, and 6 town. We still need 5/6 town to secure a majority vote, so there still isn't much margin for error. I won't be writing up a complete case right now, but I would like to touch up on a few points on a few people on my suspect list. JingleHell: JingleHell has been someone I've considered as possible scum for a while now. Much of my read was originally based off his voting stances day 3. But most of his recent posts also feel scummy to me. Many strong points have been brought up by both Shady and Ange. But additionally: First, a few points about JingleHell: Discussing his defense: On August 04 2012 07:48 JingleHell wrote: My primary defense will be that I'm a much worse target than Alan. Given that I'm under suspicion for some rather paltry WIFOM based on one of a couple of things. 1: When I ask people why they said something, they repeat it, and OMGUS me. 2: I came in looking at people who weren't the major targets, which, ironically, people wanted me to do. So the issue I have here is that his main defense is... he feels Alan looks worse than him. Instead of trying to help us understand how his actions could fit those of a town, he tries to redirect our attention to another suspect. And let's not forget how ficke he's been. In voting, he's gone from Ange-->me-->Mord.-->Zork (only after obvious fake doctor claim) Now he suspects Alan, and takes that to be his main defense. And seldom does he ever go back to those he's discussed prior. He seems content to move on and point fingers at different people. In fact, ironically, the guy he's not talking at all about anymore is the guy he would have voted for had Zork. not obviously scumslipped last-minute. And Jingle has in fact never actually developed a case of any kind for said guy (Mord.). And then there's this part: "I came in looking at people who weren't the major targets, which, ironically, people wanted me to do." I don't recall anyone encouraging Jingle to look at people who weren't major targets. His job, if he is town, is to FIND SCUM. And that's it. Anything else simply isn't helping town. His defense of Zork was something along the lines of "thought he was smoking something good." In other words, he tells us nothing of what could have motivated Zork as town to behave as he has, but inexplicably handwaves the entire issue even though Zork's the only other lynch candidate with major support on day 3... So, to summarize my current thoughts on Jingle: As Shady and Ange have brought up, several things have made Jingle look scummy. Included here are my own additional scum-reads on him. Combined with his suspicious voting pattern on day 3, I agree with Shady and Ange that Jingle is a good choice for lynching on Day 4. Regarding aRyuujin: I have already brought up a case on him that others can reference and read. One more point to add: Was I the only one who found it suspicious that he was able to conveniently change his vote to Zork when there was only three hours between Zork's fake doctor claim and the deadline? I still believe that aRyuujin's lurking is in fact deliberate. This is part of my case against him, and one of the reasons I feel that he is scum. There are two other suspects whose filters I need to look into. I have not come to any conclusions yet as to their guilt or innocence, but will be looking into them for: alan: for sticking to the Mord. bandwaggon until last minute. Darthpunk: for tunneling on Mord. hard, to the exclusion of discussing much else. There is more than one scum in this game, so I found his obsession with Mord. a little suspicious. He is my top suspect if indeed a scum was involved in a bussing. I will be looking into his filter further. Just to make my current stance clear (if it wasn't clear already): Right now, I am strongly behind lynching both JingleHell and aRyuujin. @Mord.: Yes, a bus is possible. While I still feel this is unlikely, I'm glad that someone has brought it up. I feel the bottom line here is that "scum-reads" are just as important as ever, and we cannot rely too heavily on the voting pattern of Day 3 (though it's still important to consider). | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
I definitely find it plausible you were unaware of Zork's incriminating post, since your vote change and his post were only 2 minutes apart. That being said, there are other explanations for this behavior... For now I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt on this point. As for your defense of Jingle, it may not have been optimal for a scum to stick his neck out and vote for his own candidate in the way that Jingle has. However, for what it's worth, Zork did pretty much the same thing. The case against Jingle isn't just about voting patterns, but also about his actions. I would be interested to hear your thoughts on some of the other scum reads on Jingle described by Shady, Ange, and myself. There's more to it than that he proposed his own candidate and voted for him. @ the rest of town: The posting has been incredibly scarce here, especially from Obvious and aRyuujin. Today's discussion is valuable to determine not only today's, but tomorrow's potential lynch candidate, and to discuss end-game strategy. With town turning this around, now is definitely not the time to go afk. I have spelled out my scum-read on JingleHell already, and nothing has changed since that post, so: ##Vote JingleHell I have not forgotten about alan and Darthpunk. If something really scummy sticks out to me when I'm reading through their filters tonight I might change my vote (though tbh I find this very unlikely). Whatever the case, expect a post on my opinions either before I go to bed tonight or tomorrow morning. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Alan: Nothing that Alan has said feels that scummy to me. He stuck to his read on Mordanis, however incorrect it may have been, and provided what I consider to be a reasonable case for doing so. He hasn't been afraid to give town a few pieces of advice based off his own play in the past. And he has on several occasions weighed in and provided his own perspective on the major lynch candidates of the day. His play feels generally pro-town to me, but I will also say this: he has done a good job of not really standing out with controversial arguements at any point throughout the game. I won't rule out the possibility that he's a scum that's really good at keeping his head low. Darthpunk: I originally commented on how his tunneling of Mordanis felt a little suspicious to me. But looking at his play as a whole: I would consider him to be a bit of a "pitbull" - type player. He seems to like to tunnel in on others (most recently, Ange), and keep on attacking them until they are either lynched, NK'ed, or he is generally satisfied. Possibly only until they are lynched or NK'ed... I can't really tell yet. -_- While I personally don't consider this type of play style to generally be pro-town, he has been fairly consistent in it. And, to be fair, most of the arguements he's presented do feel like they have some validity to them. Most recently, in the case with Ange, while I also see where Ange is coming from, I will admit that bussing Zork does have its potential benefits for scum. While I also agree that after the first mislynch Ange would come up suspicious, Ange would only need to survive one more mislynch to win the game if he were scum. I will also mention that Ange's case against Zork was only really brought back to life after I pointed out Ange as suspicious for not following through with his Zork vote after a scumslip I had found Day 2. With all that being said, I have found Ange's play since then to be strongly pro-town. Not to the point of being "confirmed town," but he is nowhere close to on my suspects list right now. I just wanted to say I can at least understand where Darth is coming from. On the other hand, Darth's aggressive and accusatory tone when I was bringing up that I strongly felt that Mord. was innocent felt out of place. Given the aggressiveness with which he's attacked other players, though, I can still visualize Darth as townie acting as he did out of frustration that the target he felt was scum was getting away. One final note: Darth's last-minute vote switch seems to be one of the main points people are bringing up in their cases against him. I still believe that it was too soon after Zork's incriminating post to implicate that his post switching to Zork was based on Zork's post. In other words, I still believe he could have switched to secure a voting majority without having seen Zork's post. So here's the TL;DR on Darthpunk: While I consider some of his stances suspicious, and his play style to have elements to it that aren't very pro-town, I don't feel that he is the "slam-dunk" third scum that other people are portraying him to be. As for aRyuujin, expect a follow-up post on him within the next twelve hours. Unfortunately, something else has come up and I won't be able to post some additional impressions on him I had planned to right away. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
If Ange were scum, he would have to survive through one more lynch, not mislynch as I worded it in my post. In my mind, he's looking innocent, so the word "mislynch" is still pretty prevalent in my mind. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
@aRyuujin: So, recent developments for aRyuujin include what I consider to be his first "real" analysis post. Bolded are the parts of it that stood out to me, and what I'd like to discuss. This post is where I'll start: + Show Spoiler + On August 05 2012 17:19 aRyuujin wrote: @Shady Sands: Basically, you're saying that my main scum tell is that I'm lurky. While I definitely AM lurky, it's not because I'm scum, it's because I barely have stuff to say . Even when I do contribute, people point out that I'm just agreeing with others. Hell, I even missed the day 2 lynch (though that was because I was incredibly busy). If I was scum, I'd at least have jumped on a bandwagon or something beforehand, rather than thinking I'd be able to make up my mind later (and consequently missing the vote). On Jingle: Recently, he's made a lot of emotional/fluff posts. At least in IRL mafia, when someone does that, it's generally because they can no longer find strong defenses against the arguments made against them. However, I don't see why Jingle would be so obvious in his 'fuck it they got me' attitude, especially considering how many believe he is experienced and skilled. On Darthpunk: like others have noted, that 'breadcrumb' by zork could easily have been just a way to give DP an excuse to seem anti zork. Note how previously, he was reluctant on voting zork, and finally changed when he saw there was no point in not doing so. This is a typical scum move, just trying to blend in with the other townies and going with the bandwagon. In fact, at one point he even calls zork a bad player (presumably for pulling the crappy breadcrumb stunt). This falls in sync with DP's other actions regarding the mordanis vs zork swap. Because of his recent somewhat random defense of Jingle, I'm led to believe that if Jingle is scum, then so is DP Also remember that one of the remaining mafia is godfather, meaning he will not turn up red. This means that a cop check will be substantially less effective, and the 2 mafia can cover/defend each other more easily. On Ange: I actually didn't have much of an opinion on he/she, but what Shady said makes sense to me. It's highly unlikely that scum would bus at that point, meaning that ange is in the clear. on GK: I initially had a somewhat scummy read on him. However, I think his recent posts seem really town oriented, and I have a feeling I was heavily influenced by his game long tunneling of me. Because he's been going after Jingle, I find it highly unlikely that he's mafia if Jingle is. At this point, I was debating between Jingle and Darthpunk. However, I'm voting for Jingle because of 3 main things 1)I'm fairly certain Jingle is scum 2)If Jingle is mafia, then it puts the nail in the coffin imo that Darthpunk is scum. It also somewhat confirms GK's town status 3)It's our best chance of getting a lynch at this point, seeing as Shady Sands is going for it, and is our most confirmed townie. aRyuujin's excuse for never posting: "it's because I barely have stuff to say" I find this very hard to believe. Why would you even bother playing this game if you went in with the intention of contributing nothing? What satisfaction could you possibly get, even if you won, if you weren't in any way responsible for the outcome of the game? While pretty much everything you've said to date has been rehashings of others' views, several things stuck out to me about this post: When discussing Jingle's most recent actions: "Recently, he's made a lot of emotional/fluff posts. At least in IRL mafia, when someone does that, it's generally because they can no longer find strong defenses against the arguments made against them. However, I don't see why Jingle would be so obvious in his 'fuck it they got me' attitude, especially considering how many believe he is experienced and skilled." This is really the first point that seems to actually come from you. If you want any chance at establishing your innocence you will need to start making many more posts with points like this, where you create arguements of your own that portray your perspective of who is scum. "It's highly unlikely that scum would bus at that point, meaning that ange is in the clear." So this point from Shady makes sense to you... Why exactly does it make sense to you? This has been one of the biggest issues I've had with you all game. You seem to go, "Yeah, what he said." There's nothing wrong with this, as long as you also add some content of your own to demonstrate to us exactly why it is you agree with a certain view. Regarding me: "I initially had a somewhat scummy read on him. However, I think his recent posts seem really town oriented, and I have a feeling I was heavily influenced by his game long tunneling of me. Because he's been going after Jingle, I find it highly unlikely that he's mafia if Jingle is." This is yet another view of your own. Why is this the first time we are hearing about this? If you had a scummy read on me, you should have shared it with everyone. The last thing I remember you saying of your read on me was something like: On July 28 2012 09:24 aRyuujin wrote: -snip- You still feel like town Then there's this closing point from you: "2)If Jingle is mafia, then it puts the nail in the coffin imo that Darthpunk is scum." You'd better explain this better, because in no way do I see this to be necessarily true. I've already brought to attention your rehashings of others' arguements in your "cases," and why I believe your "lurking" to be deliberate. This is all clearly spelled out in my case against you. But also, there's this: On July 28 2012 01:48 aRyuujin wrote: -snip- Suspecting me-Smart I did not yet provide posts Either i'm scum or A really bad Town. This shows to me that you have some idea what it takes to be a good town. You clearly know that lurking hurts town. So why, exactly, is it that now, of all times you feel compelled to actually try to contribute? My suspicion is that it has something to do with people mentioning you as a suspect again. You had a brief flurry of activity while defending yourself when Golbat and myself had voted for you on Day 1. You explained it as a fear of "a bandwagon forming around you." The bottom line is I actually like your + Show Spoiler + August 05 2012 17:19 And regarding this quote: On August 06 2012 06:33 aRyuujin wrote: Expect Goodkarma to paint me as 100% scum #3, he's been tunneling me literally all game long No, aRyuujin. I'm not going to say you're 100% scum. I wouldn't even say that of JingleHell, who I'm currently pretty sure is scum. What I will say, though, is that to date you've done nothing to establish your innocence, and that's every townie's responsibility (if a townie you truly are). In fact everything you've written to date has read scummy to me. If you've seen my more recent case writeup on you it should be apparent why. If you plan to have a chance at showing your innocence, you will be doubling your posting activity right now and establishing some cases that demonstrate your views on who is scum. If you're in agreement with someone, you will clearly explain why what they say makes sense. Basically, you will start to do what you should have been doing since day one. Unfortunately, no amount of activity now is going to make up for your posting habits to date. But you can still work on showing you can actually contribute. This will go a long ways in showing you're pro-town. But as of right now, I'm planning my vote for Day 5 to still be on you. Instead of being "annoyed" with me, I encourage you to do something about it. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On August 06 2012 07:10 Ange777 wrote:1. During the Zork lynch discussion DarthPunk repeatedly soft-defended Zork, pushed Mordanis as lynch candidate and proposed to lynch aRyuujin instead of Zork. 2. He switches votes very conveniently at around the same time when Zork fake claims medic. I believe that scum decided in their QT to concede to the Zork lynch. 1) Correct me if I'm wrong, but I recall Darthpunk's "defense" of Zork amounting to he felt Zork was some kind of lurker. And if we were to lynch solely based off that reasoning we should lynch aRyuujin. I don't recall much further "defense" than that, and that seems like a reasonable arguement if he was looking at it solely from the lurker standpoint. 2) I find Darthpunk's claim that he hadn't seen Zork's post before his post FAR MORE BELIEVABLE than that in QT scum were like "let's have Darthpunk change vote and bus Zork TWO MINUTES AFTER he incriminates himself." I'd expect a move like this to be planned out hours ahead of time so that Darthpunk could change his vote way ahead of time and avoid suspicion... Thanks aRyuujin for your most recent case post. It's a dramatic improvement from earlier . One thing on your case against Darthpunk I'd like to specifically address, though, is your implication that NK'ing Mordanis benefited Darthpunk. Any such discussion of why scum NK'ed a specific person I feel is too much WIFOM to really bring up. I could come up with other realistic reasons why they might have NK'ed Mordanis. The first that comes to mind is they wanted to get someone they were pretty sure wouldn't be medic saved...If someone could summarize a specific case point that shows Darthpunk's guilt that I haven't discussed here please let me know. I wanted to give Darthpunk a chance to defend himself, as I feel his defense is just as important as what was said in the case against him to get a good read of the situation. But after his defense, I don't feel the evidence is there to say he's a sure scum, especially compared to Jingle. Jingle has been spending his posting time calling us tunneling sheep, which is hardly a compelling arguement -_- I understand the need for town to stay united, and will coincide my vote with Shady's to secure the lynch for Darth IF IT COMES TO THAT, but I honestly hope it doesn't. I feel we're getting ahead of ourselves. Almost everyone is in agreement that Jingle is scum, so why are we now voting Darth? If there's some compelling arguement for lynching him I've overlooked, please enlighten me. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
There's been so much activity last night as to make my head explode... I honestly still don't see this damning evidence. First, let's address this single point: That my stance is if DarthPunk is scum, it was an uncoordinated bus, with Zork's post being really bad timing. And people have said they don't expect a bus, so why is this case against Darthpunk gaining such momentum? I still seriously can't follow what's going on. I've seen the points I've addressed already and one more: That JingleHell is considered town by Darthpunk. This is very suspicious, I agree. Apparently enough so for Shady to vote for Darthpunk. But Jinglehell has been so suspicious I still feel he is a better lynch. To summarize Darthpunk's reasoning: whoever Ange attacks is town because Ange is scum. Very sketchy reasoning, but I still feel that JingleHell is a stronger read. And that this is the only point that seems to have any validity for lynching Darthpunk. I'm especially for JingleHell over Darthpunk since I'm still not convinced scum bused Zork, and that's what had to have happened if Darthpunk is scum. And regarding Darthpunk's OMGUS pointing at Ange and aRyuujin: Scum doesn't need to avoid looking suspicious. Scum needs to stay alive as long as possible. People seem to just kind of handwave this fact: one more mislynch and it's MYLO for town every turn the rest of the game+ Show Spoiler + (I said LYLO before, but that's not strictly true. I overlooked that a no lynch would not lead to a loss. Hence MYLO is the correct term here.) Finally regarding Darthpunk's stance on "sheeping Shady's vote." Correct me if I'm wrong, but to secure a majority as town something like this needs to happen. I said I would follow a similar stance if that's what it took to secure a majority... I don't feel it limits discussion, as everyone can put forward their cases and indicate their favorite candidates with votes. It's just that by doing this, a majority can be secured around a confirmed town if things go wrong and town is too split to secure a lynch. I said I would switch to Darthpunk, but the majority to lynch him has already been secured. Because the votes needed for the lynch have been secured, I will keep my vote symbolically with Jingle for the time being. So there is my line of reasoning for not voting Darthpunk. Largely symbolic at this point, but at least, hopefully, you now know where I'm coming from. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
I'm really going to need to talk more with the hosts post-game, as I didn't see Darthpunk as the clear scum you all did. I mean, scum coordinating the Zork vote change so last-minute didn't feel like a likely scenario for me. I think this clears suspicion from Ange, if there was any... I'm looking forward to everyone's opinions on who the next lynch should be. Darthpunk suggested Jingle was town... Was that a scumslip, or is that his way of trying to ensure Jingle's survival? I honestly am not sure at this point. I've got a lot of reassessing to do on my reads, and if this flip is any indication, a lot of learning left to do. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Ange brings up a good point about Jingle. I'm going to have to look back to how far back Darth was defending Jingle to confirm, though. I hesitate to drop the case against Jingle based on this one point alone though. As Ange has already pointed out, there are both town and scum motivations for this play. One BIG assumption that's being made in her arguement is that scum is going to play this game optimally. Looking at Zork's actions, I don't think this is going to be a sure thing, and there's more than the "0,00000000001%" chance that Jingle is scum. I will be looking more in-depth into the Jingle situation tonight, but I'm hesitant to just forget his very scummy gameplay from just a day cycle ago. aRyuujin's posting for yesterday was an EXPLOSION of activity relative to the entirety of his posting history this game. It feels a little suspicious that he would just suddenly get so active in the game at such a pivotal time. To be fair, though, all his activity went into lobbying for voting for Darthpunk, who was GF... But if he were to bus, all we'd have to look at is his rehashings of arguements from earlier days, and all his case posts from last day cycle against a now-confirmed scum. I believe if he is scum, from what he did last day cycle he has done a good job of removing just enough suspicion from himself to potentially survive the rest of the game... But there is one thing that both Jingle and aRyuujin have in common: their play has been incredibly inconsistent, to the point of having "I'm scum" arrow signs over their heads. But looking at Alan, his play has been far more consistent. But his viewpoints have also been far more sheepish. He has "blended in" with town to the point of being like a chameleon. I will be looking at some of his posts, and providing some of my input as to why I feel he is a good pick for today's lynch. First, let's look at his policy on day one, where he says: On July 27 2012 12:46 alan133 wrote: @My stance on Day 1 Lynch I am strongly against day 1 no lynch. Scums starts with an information advantage while townies starts without a clue. I believe by pushing a lynch can lead to more clues (e.g. vote pattern like Shady mentioned). The best outcome, of course, is to get a scum kill, but as long as we don't mislynch a blue, it would still fairly benefit town overall. Notice the special mention of vote pattern. Also notice that he was not one of the people to vote for Golbat on Day 1. Another mention of policy that stood out to me: On July 27 2012 19:44 alan133 wrote: @Ange777 Mind you I am a paranoid person when it comes to playing Mafia, so if you're asking me what do I think, I would say Mordanis appears to be more scummy to me, but I also read Golbat's play as slightly scummy. However I did not go after Golbat lynch because Mordanis is after Golbat, and I don't see both Mordanis and Golbat being scums together. Hence I logically assume Golbat's is a townie playing badly. (Ignoring WIFOM/bussing) So before even starting to lay out his point of view on Mordanis and Golbat, he tries to discredit himself by calling himself paranoid. There is no townie motivation for this, but there certainly is the scum motivation of wanting to stay out of the spotlight. He then goes on to say that Mordanis and Golbat both look scummy to him, but he's picking Mordanis as scum solely because he looks "scummier" to him right now. In other words, since people had brought up cases for both Mordanis and Golbat at the time, he is acknowledging they both look scummy while being wishy-washy on both. And this is by no means the only spot he is wishy-washy. He was kind enough to make TL;DR's on most his stances, making them easy to pick out from his filter: On July 27 2012 23:46 alan133 wrote: -snip- TL;DR I am indifferent about Shady's alignment -snip- TL;DR I am not comfortable with lynching Golbat -snip- TL;DR I think Mordanis is the best lynch candidate right now Also, I would like to call out MrMedic, Obvs and aRyuujin. While I am not saying these three people must be scum, I hope they contribute more so we can hear more from them. So he believes Mordanis is the best lynch candidate day one. Okay, but then he says: On July 28 2012 20:42 alan133 wrote: Shady -snip- TL:DR I am slightly inclined to believe he is Scum. -snip- TL:DR I am against lynching Golbat. -snip- TL:DR I am swayed to believe Mordanis is less of a scum, I am not a big fan of lynching him right now -snip- That said, I would like to commit my vote to: ##vote: Shady_Sands In other words, he decides to vote for the candidate he's only slightly inclined to believe is scum. Very wishy-washy. And it could be argued that from a scum motivation, he is well aware that there will be heavy scrutiny of the vote pattern for the innocent (Golbat), and he wants to stay away from the fallout. Continue to day 2, alan has his first strong stance: On July 31 2012 04:20 alan133 wrote: -snip- TL:DR Shady Sands looks very scummy - I believe he will flip red But then...: + Show Spoiler + On August 01 2012 04:12 alan133 wrote: Votes are extremely sparse, and it is supposed to be 4 hours until lynch time? I was going through Zorkmid's and Goodkarma's filter since they seems to be the other lynch candidates. @Zorkmid I personally am not a big fan of his sudden disappearance. He later reappears twice: once to post one case on Golbat and Mordanis each using arguments that were mostly already laid out by other players, another one is to vote Golbat. His day 2 post were much better. There are more reads, but he rarely follows up. His "hostile" reaction when pressured reminded me too much of a mislynch that I am partially responsible for. Someone reacted hostilely towards a case against me that include personal attacks. I recognize this as a scum trait and posted another case on him because of it later- then he flipped town. I am incline to think this is somehow a townie trait: Dismissing WIFOM, I assume scum would be more cautious about his/her case and would want to maintain a "healthy" relations towards other players. TL:DR I am not a big fan of lynching Zork right now, but I will keep tab on him @Goodkarma My impression on him was that he has a stance on lurkers and seems like he plays to get rid of them. I don't see his posts as "trying to create noise for town". He did state his policy clearly and it does not betray the way he approaches the game in day 1. I have a null read on day 2. That is because he is mostly defending himself against people who build cases on him based on his publicly announced lynch policy. While I personally disagree with focusing on lurkers when there are already candidates out there, his case on Promethelax was not only based on his policy, but has shifted to actual scum hunting play. However, I am vary of "friendly" posts like these: + Show Spoiler + @alan: Thanks so much for this advice! This is exactly the kind I needed to hear. My concern with giving multiple suspects was more along the lines of what if one of those people is guilty and the other two are innocent? The guilty party has the strongest scum read. Wouldn't giving multiple suspects just make it easier for the mafia to get behind one of the two innocent lynch targets, than if you stuck with the person you consider most suspicious? But you suggest from actual in-game experience that only giving one player may be even more damaging when you have multiple scum reads... I can follow your line of reasoning, and can agree with it. I understand that Prox is looking for more transparency from me, and I feel that presenting an arguement like alan's would have been more helpful than tossing his vote. The reason for keeping my suspects "mysterious" is this fear that the mafia can use that list against town. While I don't think I played poorly other than messing up names twice and have poor grammar/general language skills, and last time I check I am not a 100% confirmed townie, and only scums know a person's alignment. I am not pushing a case based on one silly speculation, but If you're town sided, letting your guard down does not help. TL;DR I don't find goodkarma as scummy as some of you has paint him in, and I don't fancy lynching him @Shady Sands I saw your post about your brother. I hope everything's fine. I would like you to look at my case against you, and post a defence when you are available. However, you can ignore the argument where I said you were lurking in day 2 as it seems like you have a legit reason. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=353315¤tpage=27#525 That said, I believe Shady Sands is still scummy based on his day 1 play. I will look at Promethelax's filter because it seems like he is set to be lynched. @Promethelax I don't have a deep impression on him. Back in my mind he posted a lot of fluffs but I didn't pay much attention to him since he seems to agree with my reads (at least about Shady) The people he has a scum read in two in-game days is Shady and Goodkarma. That's about 5-6 post spent in about He stays away from Mordanis and Golbat's cases dismissing them as "two player OMGUSing each other". I have to admit Golbat's play was not the best, what makes him so sure about their alignment? I find Promethelax a bit "too trusting". Ryu was posting in haik.. poems. I did not comment on it as he stopped pretty soon. I believe scums could easily twist town Ryu's words while scum Ryu can twist around his own words to cover his slips. Promethelax seems to be okay with it. Also, I couldn't help but notice his buddying up Keir. He claims he has an explanation for that and will post it before the end of night 2. I don't buy it. As far as I know he was the one who was after Goodkarma hiding his "mystery suspect". I know this is in different context, but I believe having a "mystery reason" to be "revealed" after the day lynch (so don't lynch me) is just as bad. I know other players has mentioned it, but the "town ring" thing he posted seemed very suggestive. He went so far as to dismiss it as a joke, which I strongly dislike. I believe making jokes are bad, it leaves up a lot of room for interpretation, and a scum player can always claim they were joking about something that said which is scummy. I deem Promethelax's passive lurking, non committal cases, friendly attitude and general bad play to be very scummy, in fact, reminds me a lot of the last scum that we never caught in my last game. ##vote: Promethelax So, in summary: alan's never been sure lynching anyone's a good idea, is willing to go with a "slight scum read" on day one to change his vote to the minority and avoid suspicion, and is willing to change to Prox on day two last minute after his strong scum read on Shady. His reasoning for voting Prox is rehashings of stuff that was already said of his behavior, and his vote makes sense from a scum perspective since it was uncertain the lynch majority would be secured. An innocent lynched would obviously be far better than a no-lynch for scum. And this is just up to day two... He does later try to justify this last minute switch to Prox., saying he didn't have time to fully explain it. I'm not fully satisfied with his explanation though, especially because it required prodding to get this from him when it was clearly an important part of his explanation for why he voted as he did. In my opinion, his vote timing has been too convenient for me to rule out it wasn't scum motivated, especially when he mentions the lack of a vote count while writing his Prox. vote post. His after-the-fact explanation is given below: + Show Spoiler + On August 02 2012 13:14 alan133 wrote: GG Kei. @Shady Sands Shady is confirmed Mason. His "Kei's Will" post is minutes after the day post, so I doubt he could write all that up while molding it to fit Kei's post history in that short time. @goodkarma I'll lightly comment on my vote on Promethelax over Shady day 2: I backed off Shady after I am convinced that Promethelax is scum. My biggest problem with Shady is his non-existence Day 2 presence and his sudden change of view of Mordanis. Later he came back with a (I assume valid) reason that I have little doubts of, which took away some of the weight in my case. I did not pay much attention on Promethelax until that one post. I spent a long time writing his case and it convinced me he was scummier. Look at my case on him for clarification. Mind you it took around 2 hours for me to come out with all those, and lynch time is extremely close, so I made no mention of why he is the better lynch target in there. Current Situation It sucks when everyone I have a read on flips town, or is a confirmed townie. I will need to reset my reads and do a reassessment of everyone based on what we have now. I believe we have enough information so it should be much easier to pin point a scum today. He also seems to not be very invested in the game, as he has mistaken names in making case points on two separate occasions. This could be true as scum or town, but he has posted enough in my opinion that this feels more likely to be a mistake made by scum, with no interest in real scum-hunting, quickly trying to say enough to get by. On July 31 2012 04:20 alan133 wrote: -snip- I've mistaken two players twice, and in one of them I am EBWOP-ing for mistaken a player for another. I apologize for playing this poorly, I will be more careful next time. Alan has a consistent history of being wishy-washy about others, and has been very quick to jump from people he has a strong scum read on onto a different bandwaggon with what I feel is not enough justification if he were truly town. Between what I've found and Ange's case, I feel there is enough there to vote for alan. Of the three, his actions seem to best fit a scum that is trying to play intelligently by blending in. However, I will also say that Jingle and aRyuujin both have strongly scummy characterstics about them (that I have previously described...). I can't help but feel that their cases of inactivity has hurt town to the point of making this a bit coinflippy. Neither of them have done enough to establish their innocence to keep them off my list of potential candidates for tomorrow's vote if alan doesn't flip red. It's not entirely Jingle's fault in the former case, but it is aRyuujin's fault in the latter. While his surge of activity certainly helped the cause, I can't help but feel that town's situation would be much stronger if he had spoken up more earlier. ##Vote: alan133 I look forward to seeing what Alan has to say about my case points. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
I'm here, but I had a pretty lengthy case write-up. Took a while to write. I'll be around the next few hours and actively following the thread. So if you, or anyone else for that matter (especially alan) have anything to comment on for my case feel free to let me know. And of course, if I have anything else to add I'll chime in. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
. This was a very fun game. I can only hope that NMM XXIII is just as epic .A quick couple questions: Where can these qts be found? I can't seem to find the mafia qt... And can we now see the other qts too (such as the obs qt), now that the game is finished? Also: @aRyuujin: I was not trying to "pick on" you. I was looking for more activity from you, which you didn't really deliver until your (well-made) Darthpunk case. But I was also looking for inconsistencies in play, so when you did what I encouraged you to do, and started actively posting, you also looked suspicious. I admit I put you in a bit of an impossible situation. Hopefully you can understand I was just trying to go with my reads and won't take it personally. | ||
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