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@gonzaw
Your defense didn't do a whole lot for me. I could've guessed most of the things you'd say.
Upon further review, I find s0Lstice pretty suspicious, but not so much so that I think he has to be scum or is a smart lynch today (seeing as our claimed cop has an 'inno' on him).
OK I think I've made up my mind.
Honestly, gonzaw, I'm still fairly suspicious of you, and I'm currently thinking that you are the best lynch. I just don't know who else we would lynch today. s0Lstice and risen are both reasonably suspicious as well, but they are claimed inno and claimed cop. It's not like you are ever going to become suddenly cleared (like s0Lstice might be if risen ever flips cop). We have a maximum of four lynches remaining, and I'm nearly positive that we should use one of them on you. I don't see why it shouldn't be this one.
I'm going to feel terrible about this if you're town, but I'm playing to win here, and I think lynching you gives town the best chance of winning. So sorry if I'm wrong.
##Vote gonzaw
For reference, here are the current stances on gonzaw. I'm scared that he'll flip town, but I think he is our best lynch. If you agree, please vote him.
If you don't think we should lynch gonzaw today, please be vocal about it.
relatively recent opinions
mattchew: scum
sciberbia: scummy
miltonkram: scummy
s0Lstice: scummy, just not as much as mattchew (or risen apparently)
risen: thinks he has a good chance at being scum
need updated opinions
strongandbig: could get behind a lynch on gonzaw
keirathi: likely he is scum
dropbear: gonzaw looks bad
I'm going to bed. I just can't think about this game anymore tonight without driving myself crazy.
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@ gonzaw
I didn't realize my vote was still on Keirathi. Thanks for clearing that up.
##UnVote: Keirathi
##Vote: gonzaw
Regarding your question, in Keirathi and I's previous game together, Newbie Mini XIX, he put in a ton of effort. He had this "never-say-die" attitude that caused him to be incredibly active.
Keirathi giving up doesn't fit in with the picture I have of him from that game. There are two reasons for a player to give up, they are frustrated or they're giving up as a scum ploy. I originally thought Keirathi giving up was extremely scummy, but thinking over the situation and rereading his responses gives me the impression that he's actually frustrated. I find Mattchew's case against you more convincing anyways.
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On July 19 2012 15:05 Miltonkram wrote:
@ gonzaw
I didn't realize my vote was still on Keirathi. Thanks for clearing that up.
##UnVote: Keirathi
##Vote: gonzaw
Regarding your question, in Keirathi and I's previous game together, Newbie Mini XIX, he put in a ton of effort. He had this "never-say-die" attitude that caused him to be incredibly active.
Keirathi giving up doesn't fit in with the picture I have of him from that game. There are two reasons for a player to give up, they are frustrated or they're giving up as a scum ploy. I originally thought Keirathi giving up was extremely scummy, but thinking over the situation and rereading his responses gives me the impression that he's actually frustrated. I find Mattchew's case against you more convincing anyways.
Newbie XIX was much, MUCH less frustrating than dealing with Risen 
At least there I was fairly sure I was right. Hell, I'm not even sure that Risen is fakeclaiming, but all the arguing is clouding my judgement on OTHER PEOPLE besides just him. Its frustrating thinking about two townies arguing with each other so hard while the two scum that are left are just laughing their way to the bank. I really didn't see any other way out of the situation than for one (or both) of us to die.
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Actually, I think Risen is town.
Here is his filters from LII (scum): http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=329128&user=62525
Here is his filter this game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351147&user=62525
One thing in LIII I saw was this:
He was fluffy as hell and all his posts reeked scum at the beginning, but after I called him out he became super disruptive, aggressive, posting one-liners with a very aggressive tone in a chaotic-way.
Here, you can see Risen being more "calm" at first and then getting more "aggressive" later (when he started pushing Vivax for instance). However his "calm" posts are still that, calm, I don't get the feeling he's trying to fake contributions there or anything.
Plus his "change" into normal Risen seems more legit, since you can see him getting more aggressive and stuff like he usually plays as town as time goes by, which is understandable if he can't control his impulses >_>
There are some weird stuff, like him getting too "emotional" that Vivax flipped town and him missing almost all D2, but there are some things in his favour:
-That meta comparison I made earlier
-He was the 7th vote on talis, meaning he basically prevented a NL to save talis (albeit he HAD to vote or be modkilled)
-This cop claim doesn't make much sense if he's scum since it's not an "obvious" attempt to disrupt or confuse town, it actually gives us lots of info (about S&B and solstice for instance).
His gambit of attacking me and then dropping it doesn't seem too suspicious I think. Basically because I don't think he'd do it as scum, he'd be VERY happy with me getting lynched, so I doubt he'd try a gambit that avoids that when other people were intent on lynching me.
His attack on Keirathi isn't that good...but well his attack on Vivax wasn't either, and him not playing that great doesn't equal him being scum.
So I don't really think Risen is scum so I wouldn't want him lynched today now that I think about it.
Now let's analyse this logically:
1)Risen claimed cop with a green check on S&B and solstice
2)The Godfather is dead
3)There is only 1 Godfather at most
4)Because of (2) and (3), there is no GF alive this game
5)One can only distrust green checks when a GF is alive
6)Because of (4) and (5) one can trust any green check this game
7)Because of (1) and (6), if Risen is town, then we can trust his green check
8)Because of (7), if Risen is town, S&B and solstice are town.
8.a)If Risen is town, then S&B is town
8.b)If Risen is town, then sosltice is town
I think Risen is town, therefore I think S&B is town and solstice is town.
*pheww* thank god I don't have to read solstice filter now then >_>
I've already posted some stuff about his responses this day and why it didn't make me think he was scum, but I guess this makes me more sure.
Anyways, Mattchew+Milton/Dropbear for scum I think, so please people vote Mattchew.
I'm torn on Dropbear/MIlton since I'm waiting their responses first.
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@ gonzaw
There's still the possibility of a framer. There's still the possibility of there being two Godfathers. Your logic is flawed.
I don't see how DropBear is scummy. He and talismania went at each other D1. It's possible that they tried to bus each other D1, but it's extremely unlikely.
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Just want to make a few comments, then I'll go read his LIII filter.
On July 19 2012 15:17 gonzaw wrote:
-He was the 7th vote on talis, meaning he basically prevented a NL to save talis (albeit he HAD to vote or be modkilled)
7th vote is just insurance. With 11 people alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Being 7th is actually a null point to me, or maybe SLIGHTLY on the scummy side of the line. Not enough to be damning anyways.
On July 19 2012 15:17 gonzaw wrote:
-This cop claim doesn't make much sense if he's scum since it's not an "obvious" attempt to disrupt or confuse town, it actually gives us lots of info (about S&B and solstice for instance).
I don't really understand this point. There are definitely situations in which Risen flipping scum causes confusion depending on how long he actually lives.
On July 19 2012 15:17 gonzaw wrote:
His gambit of attacking me and then dropping it doesn't seem too suspicious I think. Basically because I don't think he'd do it as scum, he'd be VERY happy with me getting lynched, so I doubt he'd try a gambit that avoids that when other people were intent on lynching me.
I half-agree. It really does seem pretty far-fetched to think he would do that as scum, but he already gave himself an out (paraphrasing "if gonzaw flips red, Matt is scum, if he flips green, keir is scum"). So if we read that sentence with the assumptions that 1) Risen is scum, 2) you are town, 3) I am town, I think you can see how it could potentially play out in scums favor with Risen trading 2 for 1 and his scumbuddy bussing him on the Day-of-5. (Yes, I know that is purely speculation. I'm not saying that I necessarily think that I am right, but I haven't discounted the possibilty yet, and it IS a possibility).
On July 19 2012 15:17 gonzaw wrote:
His attack on Keirathi isn't that good...but well his attack on Vivax wasn't either, and him not playing that great doesn't equal him being scum.
I agree. I think there are things that warranted him attacking me, and I'm trying my best not to just OMGUS. I think there are some holes in his logic, but I'm not sure if that makes him scum or just playing badly because he's frustrated too.
On July 19 2012 15:17 gonzaw wrote:
Now let's analyse this logically:
1)Risen claimed cop with a green check on S&B and solstice
2)The Godfather is dead
3)There is only 1 Godfather at most
4)Because of (2) and (3), there is no GF alive this game
5)One can only distrust green checks when a GF is alive
6)Because of (4) and (5) one can trust any green check this game
7)Because of (1) and (6), if Risen is town, then we can trust his green check
8)Because of (7), if Risen is town, S&B and solstice are town.
8.a)If Risen is town, then S&B is town
8.b)If Risen is town, then sosltice is town
I think Risen is town, therefore I think S&B is town and solstice is town.
Thats an awful lot of steps to state something that was pretty obvious already :o
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On July 19 2012 15:29 Miltonkram wrote:
@ gonzaw
There's still the possibility of a framer.
Doesn't matter, read point (5)
There's still the possibility of there being two Godfathers. Your logic is flawed.
I'd say that possibility is very low, read point (3).
I haven't seen a "normal" mafia game with 2 Godfathers (SoaF had 2 Gfs, but it wasn't normal), and even in that case it's unlikely THIS game has 2 GFs.
Even if that's the case, the only thing you can disprove is that one of solstice or S&B is town, nothing else.
Can you tell me the relevance of this? Great, there's a small possibility of me being wrong, like 0.03% and that even if Risen is town, one of S&B or solstice are scum...
....are they? Do you think one of them are scum?
If not, why did you make this comment at all? Are you just trying to cast doubt on them? Or do you just want to discredit me?
Anyways I may be getting to confrontational right now, but you are not convincing me you are town at all with posts like these Milton.
I don't see how DropBear is scummy. He and talismania went at each other D1. It's possible that they tried to bus each other D1, but it's extremely unlikely.
You could very well reread his filter to figure it out, as I'm going to do.
If not, then who's the other scum? Keirathi? Make that case then
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On July 19 2012 15:05 Miltonkram wrote:
@ gonzaw
I didn't realize my vote was still on Keirathi. Thanks for clearing that up.
##UnVote: Keirathi
##Vote: gonzaw
Regarding your question, in Keirathi and I's previous game together, Newbie Mini XIX, he put in a ton of effort. He had this "never-say-die" attitude that caused him to be incredibly active.
Keirathi giving up doesn't fit in with the picture I have of him from that game. There are two reasons for a player to give up, they are frustrated or they're giving up as a scum ploy. I originally thought Keirathi giving up was extremely scummy, but thinking over the situation and rereading his responses gives me the impression that he's actually frustrated. I find Mattchew's case against you more convincing anyways.
So you'll just sheep Mattchew's case? Even though I basically disproved it completely?
Okay people, tell me this, who is my scumbuddy?
I just basically proved to you guys that Keirathi, Risen, sosltice and S&B are town (well, proved seems like a strong word since I might be wrong, but I feel confident in my town reads on them at the moment, plus that logical stuff from above).
Did I just back my own buddy into a corner?
The case on me is basically based on me not "contributing" to the talis lynch, and "having wishy-washy" reads.
Okay, I know I wasn't active in lynching talis on D2, but that doesn't make me scum. Do you think I was not active and putting effort in trying to figure out the alignments of other players? You don't think I was NOT malign about those intentions?
Do you think I just started babbling and babbling about people just because I didn't want to talk about talis or something?
Go read those posts I made on D2 and answer me (to everybody basically).
I can't say anything about "having wishy-washy" reads because it's true. I don't 100% know who's scum and town in this game and every single time I reread the thread/filters or every time someone posts something it changes things and it may change my mind or make me unsure.
Although I wasn't "wishy-washy" about everything and only about few people (like Risen and Mattchew on D2 and up until know for instance).
Anyways, me defending myself more won't help anybody (I already did it and it didn't seem to matter) so I'll try and find the scum in Dropbear/Milton.
About Mattchew:
Because of what I said earlier, it would only leave Mattchew/Dropbear/Milton/Keirathi/sciberbia as candidates for the 2 remaining scum.
sciberbia is very likely town and his mannerisms make 0 sense as scum and are townie as fuck (him thinking things twice, trying to get every opinion, changing his mind about things, not tunneling but having opinions and sharing them each moment, being interactive with everybody, etc).
I think Keirathi is town for reasons stated before.
That leaves Mattchew/Dropbear/MIlton......and just based on that I can easily say Mattchew is scum, even if I thought he was scum before.
Another thing I'd say about Mattchew, is that he doesn't seem to care about this game, he just seems to care about FoSing someone and getting him lynched.
He did that with talis (made one "case" against him, voted him, and just tried to get him lynched, did nothing else), and is doing the same with me (made one "case" against me, voted me, and just tries to get me lynched, does nothing else).
The one is important because Mattchew thinks his "cases" are flawless or something and he fails to mention anything about those players at all costs.
I haven't seen Mattchew mention ANYTHING about talis other than that post he made, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.
He never commented on the other cases or on anything else that could be said about talis.
He's doing the same with me, he doesn't mention ANYTHING about me anymore.
That's no town behaviour at all. No townie is just content in making 1 vote that justifies their actions and then skating by the whole game using that previous post as their excuse to do nothing at all. Specially if you are very sure someone is scum.
Someone read Mattchew's filter and tell me this isn't true. When have you seen a SINGLE contribution from him ever since early D1 that weren't these 2 posts?:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351147¤tpage=49#973
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351147¤tpage=38#753
I guess I should be fair and mention this other single contribution from him:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351147¤tpage=48#956
@Milton: I want a fully explanation about why I'm more likely scum than Mattchew.
a FULL explanation, no "I'm sheeping Mattchew's case". Explain in your own words why I'm scum, and explain in your own words why Mattchew isn't scum.
Go go go
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EBWOP: Pretty obvious if you make the assumption that framer's can't frame teamates to have green checks. I'm hoping WBG will be here soon to answer that.
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Framers don't make scum look town.
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On July 19 2012 15:45 Risen wrote:
Framers don't make scum look town.
That was my assumption coming into the game too, because thats how framers have worked in previous mafia games I have played. But some people seem to think differently, so mod confirmation would be great.
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Mattchew, I'd very like you to tell us who you think is my scumbuddy.
Or you know, post anything at all that contributes to this game....anything really.
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On July 19 2012 15:48 Keirathi wrote:That was my assumption coming into the game too, because thats how framers have worked in previous mafia games I have played. But some people seem to think differently, so mod confirmation would be great.
It seems obvious that it works like Risen did it, but wbg confirming it won't kill anybody.
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EBWOP:
"like Risen said it did, but..."
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On July 19 2012 15:50 gonzaw wrote:
EBWOP:
"like Risen said it did, but..."
Lol, all this makes me think is you're trying to paint me as bussing you.
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I just want to say that this game is a clusterfuck.
Its 2 am, so I'm going to get some sleep. Maybe I can divine some new perspective or something.
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You give me a defense and then give a semi "slip" there. Throw in my misuse of bus and wagon earlier? Shady looking cop claim. Risky, though, bc I have a chance to check your teammate tonight and you have to leave me alive for this to mean anything
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My understanding is that framers can make scum players look innocent or town players look guilty.
@ gonzaw
My initial impression is that Mattchew is town and you are scum. I feel like the cases made against you are much more concrete than the cases made against him. I'm currently cross-checking filters chronologically with the thread. This takes a lot of time and effort, so I'm not spewing shit all over the thread and drowning it with all my half-baked opinions, unlike someone I can think of...
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Dropbear:
As I instantly read his filter, I noticed his confidence and arrogance basically.
For instance this:
On July 12 2012 18:09 DropBear wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 16:10 gonzaw wrote:On July 12 2012 15:38 Keirathi wrote:On July 12 2012 15:14 DropBear wrote:On July 12 2012 15:06 Keirathi wrote:
I don't think anyone is saying roleblocker should never, under any circumstances, use their power.
But it needs to be used with extreme caution because you probably have a higher chance (or at the very least, equal) of blocking a town blue than blocking a KP if you just pick randomly.
There are certainly situations where it can be a useful power, of course, but its much safer just to not use it until you have good, solid reads. People have in fact said that it shouldn't be used period. Gonzawtalismania Then I completely disagree with them. I'm still not positive they mean that there is a never a situation where RB can be useful, but if they think that then I encourage them to think harder. Obviously there are exceptions. If there are 2 "very obvious scum" or something (and only 2 scum remain) then he can try to RB those. But him trying to RB at random on N1 or even on N2 seems too risky to me, specially if that guys doesn't have very good reads (and isn't lucky). @Dropbear: I don't like your attitude. You just busted into the thread, basically discredited everything everybody said, and discredited every accusation anybody else has done, and that's it. All the while acting like you own the place or something (without actually taking charge). However you are not progressing at all, you are just complaining. Actually lets get the ball rolling (this thread is VERY silent so far, hopefully this changes that): ##Vote: Dropbear You're just mad that I think your idea on the roleblocker is bad and your cases are bad.
I accuse him and he just shrugs it off.
Unless he's like Ace or has a similar scum play like that I don't see him acting like this at all if he was scum.
Talis does seem to go off against him pretty fast. Seems too early for a bus, specially if it's ALL talis does.
I have to take advise from our friend Mattchew here:
On July 14 2012 03:30 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2012 02:49 gonzaw wrote:On July 14 2012 02:43 Mattchew wrote:On July 13 2012 17:01 DropBear wrote:On July 13 2012 09:07 Vivax wrote:I'm not comfortable with a tali lynch. Comparing filters I found Miltonkrams filter to be fairly empty and he targetted the easy target. He posted 1. A list of his games to make himself available for a metacheck. 2. He comments on Talis plan being bad, and that being reason enough to be scummy. My impression of talis plan gone bad so far: It's a magnet for players with no/bad cases to have a reason to post something accusing. The downside is that it might have triggered policy discussion and a lot of chaos, while promising a lot of clarity by forcing players to take a hard stance, so talis plan was risky from a town perspective, and I'd leave it at that. He said it worked in bastard mafia, let's leave it at that: It won't be used here. 3. On July 13 2012 06:35 Miltonkram wrote:
I don't find the fact that he came up with the plan scummy, I find the amount of time he's spent defending himself from the fallout of his plan scummy. I think he's spent 3 or 4 posts just defending himself.
Defending oneself isn't scummy. If it's really the only thing you do, then yes, but Milton already knows that it's not the only thing tali is doing: On July 13 2012 06:48 Miltonkram wrote:
EBWOP: I didn't notice that talismania was actually putting a fair amount of pressure on austinmcc. I still find the amount of time he's spent talking about his proposal scummy, but he has put a small amount of pressure on players. still seems to firmly believe in a scum tali. He doesn't have any other reads. He comments on Keirathi and sciberbia being unreadable to him. I'll go for Milton if I don't see some arguments to his defense. I'll defend Milton for you  He started late so hasn't posted as much. We knew that was happening before the games started. Your point 1 directly helps people get a read on him. This is extremely positive town play. In your point 2, you say how the plan allows pointless posting and how that doesn't help town, but then turn around and lambast Milton for pointing this out. Contradiction much? There is no real pressure from talismania on austin at all. Milton is right, talismania IS only defending the plan and not committing to accusations. Three reads is enough for day 1, no? Posting your read on every single person is just clutter. You should be less obvious in defending your buddy. SCUM TEAM
Vivax
talismania gonzaw, scum don't usually do this. so i don't want to vote dropbear. Scum don't usually defend other guys and accuse people....? Could you be a little bit more specific? What about the rest of his posts? Scum don't usually defend people with good reasoning, like i think drop did. Also, he is aggressive and willing to take on the loudest person here (you) which means he's not afraid of the attention, another thing scum is unlikely to do
I agree with this, scum rarely defend people.
There's something I seem to agree with as well, which is from sciberbia:
sciberbia:
I feel like we were just lynching between a bunch of townies yesterday. If I had to guess, I'd say there is only 1 scum between our many lynch candidates: dropbear, vivax, miltonkram, s0Lstice, austinmcc, risen, and keirathi.
talis didn't give a fuck yesterday. If Drop was scum I'd say he would give a fuck. If not him, then his other scumbuddy would give a fuck and try to stop the Dropbear lynch.
Since I think that scumbuddy is Mattchew, with talis not giving a fuck and Mattchew not giving a fuck either, it does seem to me the lynch was between 2 townies, if not I'm sure something different would have happened, specially when Dropbear was starting to get votes on top of him.
There are tiny bits that make me wary.
For instance, he didn't actually contribute at all since N1 basically, and also these posts:
On July 17 2012 02:22 DropBear wrote:
Haven't been able to post today, been busy.
General consensus is that talismania is dying. I agree that he is dodgy as fuck but I'm also wary about how little opposition his lynch is getting.
On July 17 2012 02:38 DropBear wrote:
Ok so re-reading day 2 there is noone defending talismania at all. Noone.
solstice you have sheeped the tali lynch really hard and have offered no response to my questioning of your Risen case on day 1, which was highly questionable. You are either scum falling in line to bus your doomed buddy or scum jumping on the bandwagon to lynch a townie as far as I am concerned.
My vote is staying where it is.
The only alternative to a talis lynch was a lynch on him I think (S&B plus someone else had votes on Dropbear)...so apparently not wanting to lynch talis is very weird since it'd imply he'd want to be lynched himself or something.
He basically wasted his vote on solstice.
His later "plan" to lynch Risen is not scummy itself since Keirathi did it as well.
But he didn't really contribute anything at all or who he thought was scum.
Hmm....one thing I don't know would have happened if he was scum is Mattchew defending Dropbear so badly up there (in that quote I posted).
tl;dr:
Dropbear seemed very confident, talis accused him very early to be a bus, Mattchew defended him too much if he was scum, and the reaction from talis indicates he was a misslynch on D1 as well (specially if Dropbear himself didn't try to do anything to stop his lynch before, he would have seen it coming I think).
On the other hand, ever since D1 he hasn't contributed at all, implied he didn't want talis lynched and wasted his vote on solstice, now wants to lynch Risen based on a plan he copied off Keirathi yet apparently has no scum reads at all.
Well...I'm not sure to be honest :/
I could see him more likely town....but he could be scum specially because of his reaction to talis being lynched and his throwaway vote on solstice
Hmm, I'll check Milton now, if you guys have any thoughts on Dropbear you are free to check
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On July 19 2012 16:00 Risen wrote:
You give me a defense and then give a semi "slip" there. Throw in my misuse of bus and wagon earlier? Shady looking cop claim. Risky, though, bc I have a chance to check your teammate tonight and you have to leave me alive for this to mean anything
What slip? No sane townie would take that as a slip (of what, you being Framer?).
The misuse of bus and wagon was your own fault entirely don't accuse me of trying to "make it appear you are bussing me" if you are the one committing mistakes that may give others that impression.
Anyways Risen, could you give me your thoughts on any of that shit I wrote these past few pages?
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EPT
