EPTI Can't Believe it's not Themed MiniMafia - Page 5
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On July 20 2012 07:23 gonzaw wrote: Okay, these are the possibilities: Remaining scum role:
Conclusion: No matter what role scum has, solstice and S&B are confirmed town Unless there is a JK who DIDN'T JAIL ANYBODY ON N1 (which I find very hard to believe) AND one of S&B or solstice is GF. I find this unlikely though, but we'll find out in tomorrow's massclaim! what the fuck are you doing are you just doing this to troll me now | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
that way my rage will decrease enough to allow myself to sleep | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
sciberbia is possible scum but i just think it doesnt seem likely because of the talismania flip - that would mean the godfather lynch wagon was pushed almost entirely by scum. That leaves DerpBear. Who I already thought was scum, if you'll recall. Let's lynch him tomorrow. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
Anyway expanding on my post above this one, since I'm saying "we should be looking for scum among the people who didn't vote for Mattchew", I guess I should address the possibility that I might be scum. It's true - I did defend Mattchew. That's because I thought he was town; he had me fooled. Before this game, I've played three with him - he was scum in two of them, and I had him read correctly in both. In one of those games I vig shot him, in the other I tried to get him lynched but was foiled by a last-minute switch. Anyway, the point is I felt pretty confident in my ability to read him as scum. In Holy Roman mafia, he played a very active scum game, trying to exert a lot of thread presence and move town in his direction. In MTG mafia, he played the opposite, super lurking but keeping himself just townier-looking than some of the actual townies who slipped up or were playing poorly. But I thought I'd found enough similarities between those games that I could read his scum play; however, that turns out to have been incorrect. I should have paid more attention this game to his play N2 and D3 rather than sticking with my townread based on his D1 and D2 play. So there's my townie motivation for defending Mattchew and trying to get people to switch to Gonzaw - I had a townread on Mattchew that I felt kind of confident in, and I wanted to defend my townread and get people to switch to Gonzaw, who I have a lot of trouble reading in general but who Mattchew and Sciberbia, both of whom I had townreads on and both of whom were behind the Talismania lynch, felt strongly was scum and were making pretty convincing cases about. So there you go. My motivation right now is to put as much information out there as I can to back up my position, which is "we should lynch into the group (dropbear, sciberbia, gonzaw)." Those are the people who didn't vote for Mattchew, plus Gonzaw minus me. Within that group we should be lynching dropbear; I think my case on him for not following his own advice and other things still holds true, plus I think sciberbia is town. Gonzaw could still be scum but he speaks truth when he says that the way he and Matt went after each other would be terrible strategy; and after Liar Game I think if there's one thing he's good at it's scum strategy. If you still think I'm scum I guess that's fair given my last vote and what I tried to get the thread to do at the end of D3; but I'll just point out that I did put the hammer on Talismania, which (if a bus) would have been the worst bus ever since I didn't actually post cases on him or put myself in a position to gain from his flip. I'll be willing to defend myself or answer questions or whatever. But I really think we should be lynching dropbear. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
I guess it's possible we have a JK left and they jailed Milton, but that's not a claim we can easily confirm since a scum roleblocker could also claim JK; I'm not sure what a JK claim gains us tomorrow, it's not like that person would be confirmed town. I kind of agree that the Mason should claim, but I guess they want to save that until they are in danger of being lynched (that's the only reason I could see for them not claiming yesterday); I just hope they claim before LYLO because at LYLO the mason claim is useless unless it was breadcrumbed by Austin before he died. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
post more guyz!!!!! | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On July 21 2012 06:27 Risen wrote: Makes sense. Also, what could possibly posses anyone to say "maybe he's just trying to get the last scum to not kill him" DURING THE NIGHT. Wtf... Don't give scum ideas like that even though I was probably getting shot regardless I wanted scum to shoot you because you weren't really helping town and all the wifom was really confusing things that's why I posted that | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
it means I actually caught scum with a big case instead of just with a vig shot! although i still couldn't persuade people to vote for him... but I didn't really have that much time to devote to badgering people | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
now i just need to learn to get people to pay attention to me.... | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
I thought I did a decent job of being townie after the first day - even before the cop claim it didn't seem like anyone was seriously proposing me as "scum" at the end of D2/start of D3. I know that a large part of what this town lacked was leadership and motivation, and I didn't try to step in; I felt kind of blockaded on that front by the fact that other people were posting so much more than me, and that I couldn't really post any more than I did due to the fact that I can't reliably find time to post from work, and am usually tired as fuck when I get home. I'm unsure what to think about my scum hunting. I feel pretty good about my read and case on dropbear - he was off my radar until someone (Milton I think) asked offhand what I thought about him, but when I read his filter carefully I noticed the huge contradiction. I also think I was right in the way I interpreted the fact of that contradiction, and didn't just get lucky - when someone gives one big piece of advice on "how to make a good town atmosphere" at the start of the game, and then doesn't follow it, it either means "they didn't believe their own advice and just posted it for something to say so they could look like they're interacting with the thread," or it means "they don't care about creating a good town atmosphere." Either way, they're probably scum. On the other hand, I didn't continue to push that case and make a strong attempt to get dropbear lynched that same day. This was for three reasons - the less important one was that I didn't have time to post enough to really push a town with Gonzaw in it. The second reason was, I wasn't as confident in that case as I should have been because in past games when I was correct about identifying scum, it was usually because of overall impressions of their play (for example, I figured out Mattchew was scum in Holy Roman mafia because "he was posting a lot and aggressively but wasn't actually doing anything that would help town," or I figured out Forumite in Wheel of Fortune mafia because "other than Ace (who I already was pretty sure was scum) he was one of the most veteran players left but he wasn't doing anything to lead town out of the directionless morass Ace had maneuvered it into." Both of those are more impressions or generalized interpretations of their filters rather than large cases which make several points and connections between specific posts and the overall theme - I think the last time I had a correct "big case" was also in Wheel of Fortune, where I tried to make the case against Ace that both his overall play and some of his specific posts corresponded to different elements of his "ideal scum play" from guides and past comments he had written. On the other hand, the list of incorrect "big cases" I've made is much longer - eg, against Mattchew in TL LV, against Zealos in MTG mafia, and more I'm sure. I think it's good to be aware of my limitations but the fact that I've made so many incorrect cases in the past has led me to judge the cases I make by how people react to them, and I need to figure out a way to decide how confident I should be in my own cases. The third reason that I didn't push really hard to get dropbear lynched right away was that I recognized that sciberbia had a good case against Talismania. I think that being able to evaluate other people's cases as town is also an important skill and that I did a pretty good job here; ofc all the credit goes to Sciberbia for making that case in the first place. So other than dropbear, however, I had a huge failing in my bad read on Mattchew. I had "gut-read" him correctly in like three games in a row where he was scum, plus I had a scum gut-read on him in LV which was the only game we were both town; so I thought that "if usually I think he's scum when he's scum, and scum when he's town, then if I think he's town he must be extra town." Bayesian statistics supports that interpretation, but maybe I should treat town gut-reads different from scum gut-reads. So overall I would rate my scum-hunting "better than I have done in the past but still unsatisfactory." Needed to push my scum read better (gets to the leadership point) and there's also the Mattchew thing. | ||
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