EPT-'cases' instead scum read
-'omgus when he defends himself
-connections/entire scum team reads
correct?
I Can't Believe it's not Themed MiniMafia - Page 3
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
-'cases' instead scum read -'omgus when he defends himself -connections/entire scum team reads correct? | ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
those two things are 1 and 2 on my list. im working nights this week so im off to bed. Will read and post from work. | ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
Gonzaw, I read your posts about s&b from both perspectives, read sciberbia's and austin's thoughts on him. Before I had to cut out yesterday I starting doubting my read mainly because of how he was dealing with the whole mattchew issue. I agreed with him 100%. The points you made in his favor gonzaw...pointing out town motivation for a lot of the stuff he has been doing are, I now believe, the correct way to look at it. I went and looked at MTG, which I hadn't before, and I went away feeling like he is playing similarly here. I think also that you two just rub eachother the wrong way. If that is genuine, which I think it is, then his back and forth with you is just emotion, and isn't alignment indicative. Something else I forgot...in SSB he was a hydra with HiroPro, and was much busier at the beginning of the game. Risen died fairly early, so I can see how he may not have noticed. What's more, I have an updated read on Risen, which I will talk about in a bit. I happen to agree with s&b's suspicions, but for different reasons. To sum up, I am back to neutral/leaning town. s&b, I'd still like you to address the portion of my case dealing with your vote on Vivax day 1. Can you explain your thoughts there? ___________________________ Now on the cases on Talismania... I took a pretty hard look at his filter and the cases, and I support lynching him today This post sealed the deal for me. On July 13 2012 00:43 talismania wrote: Reactions to talismania's Shitty Plan (for those who care) + Show Spoiler + marvellosity On July 12 2012 09:47 marvellosity wrote: naw, I'm not killing anyone based on one post right at the beginning of the game (especially as pregame was quite active/friendly, it spilled over) I'd rather lynch talis for his never-ending bullshit on listing names and reasons. Seriously, 24 hours into day 1 and we're supposed to come up with reasons on 3 different people for why they might be scum? It's just nonsense. Or... wait for it... I have an idea! If someone says something a person finds scummy, they can call them out and bring it to the thread! Wow, marv, you say - an amazing plan! People shouldn't be 'forced' to make effort, the making of the effort willingly is what helps gives us our reads on people. Predictably shits on it, suggests policy lynching me out of his annoyance that I keep proposing these dumb plans. gonzaw On July 12 2012 09:36 gonzaw wrote: So, if the lynch was right now I'd want to kill one of these 3 guys: You can see the recurring theme in all 3 (just 1 post, promising something/appearing they are eager to start but not doing anything else later). marv, talismania, anybody active, what do you think about these guys? If you had to kill one of them which one would you choose and why? (if you don't want to kill anyone then say so). Also this guy could die too: But at least he put a little bit more effort (although that's not town-telling) Dropbear and Milton haven't even posted, but well we can't do anything about it. Actually follows the plan - as I said seems rather townie. Especially the timing. Mattchew On July 12 2012 10:46 Mattchew wrote: Also, talis has the worst plan ever with his 3 people thing. That just allows people to half ass push some stupid reads and then connections theories run wild and everything turns to shit shits on it solstice On July 12 2012 11:04 s0Lstice wrote: Keirathi, assuming you are still around... why so verbose about lurkers? what do you think of talismania's plan? I actually don't see him reacting to it at all yet he asks keirathi about it. Interesting. He did react to gonzaw's post reacting to mine. austinmcc On July 12 2012 11:33 austinmcc wrote: That's because there's basically nothing to my first post except "Millers claim," which isn't helpful. What I can add is that I think talismania's 3-case plan is bad, but that seems to be the general sentiment. Forcing arbitrary requirements on everyone isn't really going to help us, and is going to clog up the thread later. People are going to make halfhearted cases to try to reach that number, someone will inevitably only find 1-2 people scummy and we'd end up in some "does x not making 3 cases = scummy?" discussion, and we also might end up lynching people that EVERYONE finds a little bit scummy rather than someone that a few people have a strong scumread on for good reasoning. Can also add that I haven't played with gonzaw, but I've obsed his recent games. Anyone here feel like they do a good job reading him, and if so, can you post some tips? I've found that I almost always end up reading him as scum, because he is active enough and posts enough that I keep finding scummy things to latch on to. Had him scum at the end of liar game just prior to the katina lynch, but also found him really scummy in the recent MTG because I felt like some of the plans he pushed hard were anti-town (check the obsqt early on, although I didn't post much there). So...any magical tricks for getting the right read on Gonzaw? Actually this reads scummy again on the second go-round too. He says he's about to "add" something but literally just copies/expands on what marv said and doesn't add anything at all. Keirathi On July 12 2012 11:54 Keirathi wrote: Sorry was getting dinner. I was verbose because I have some shared experience with sciberbia, whom I was replying to. I know that most (all?) of his TL mafia experience was in newbie games, and the dynamic is just different when you can assume that people know how to play the game. As far as talismania's plan, I feel like it makes it too easy for mafia to blend in. The more townies you have making arguments against other townies, the easier you can push mislynches and not have to take any blame for them. There are other things wrong with it, but Mattchew and austin beat me to it. No need rehashing what they said. Mmm I think this is innocuous. He might not even have responded if he hadn't been asked to. DropBear On July 12 2012 15:18 DropBear wrote: This is silly. This isn't going to happen and would just waste time. On the majority lynch, day 1 this tends to be a right kerfuffle. I can't think of any system that has ever worked on day 1 in games I have been part of. So fuck a system, we deal with it when the time comes. There should be solid candidates by then anyway. Actually this doesn't sit that well with me at all. Conversation had started to move on and then he brings it back to my plan and says the same shit everyone else did. I also don't like his misrepresentation of my views on the roleblocker's use of their power. strongandbig On July 12 2012 16:51 strongandbig wrote: Hey bros For people who weren't in ssb or mtg mafias, just wanted to let you guys know I am currently in Europe, where I don't have a cell phone data plan. This means I can only post when I have wifi, which is a change from my normal method. I've also been busy at work so please don't expect much from me before 8pm CET. Now for serious stuff: I'm going to be watching marv like a motherfuking hawk. I think hosts tend to try to "balance" games sometimes by tweaking their scum team selection; however, that can and has led to extra info from town through balance speculation. Marvellosity makes an extremely tempting player for hosts to do this kind of balancing, because his scum play is empirically very good, but he isn't a "veteran" so he's not likely to be the subject of balance speculation. I also suspect bugs of doing this kind of balancing. + Show Spoiler [reasons, from wheel of fortune.] + The last of his c++ games I played in was wheel of fortune. That was a stacked game and I was one of the worst players in it, although I did eventually manage to figure out the scum team (and got shot for having correct reads before I could push some of them). With the benefit of hindsight, that scum team looks almost perfectly balanced for the player base. Radfield was town, ace was scum. VE and Forumite were both good players, but only on the edge of being full-on vets. I firmly believe that town would have won that game if Radfield hadn't decided to use a DT check on Ace, who was godfather. That kind of closeness is the sign of a well-balanced game; and the odds that both town and scum would have their best player as their best power role are very small from pure chance. So what does this mean? I am NOT proposing to policy lynch marvellosity; if he's town he can be a great asset, and besides that's totally against the spirit of the game. What I AM saying is that I think when someone points out something scummy he does, we should take it pretty seriously. Pure chance wouldn't explain why he has rolled scum in something like half his games since our first game together (noob 6) while I have rolled it once - him being good and me not does explain that. NOW: having told you why you should pay attention, I'm going to point out something scummy marv has done. That thing is: propose/say he would be okay with lynching Talismania. Talismania's plan IS anti town. When Ace is host and he tells an obs QT how good a plan is for scum, you better believe he knows what he's talking about. Systematic case proposing plans give scum an excuse to make shitty reads and blend in, because everyone is making shitty cases and dumb reads. That kind of plan dilutes good information and adds bad information. HOWEVER: Talismania proposes this plan as town. All the time. Like, every game. Usually "pushing scummy plans" is a decent scum tell; but this specific player pushing this specific plan is not. And Marvellosity should know this. Marv has obs'd at least two games where Talismania proposed this plan or a variation of it (ssb, bangbang). Tali has proposed this in other games. Marv is the kind of player who pays attention; he should also know that I've pushed tali hard for these plans in the past, as have others. Marv putting tali forward as his first lynch candidates comes down to an easy push on an easy target for reasons he should know are bad. Marv, I'm watching you. + Show Spoiler [on Talismania, briefly] + I'm not saying tali is an easy target in general, like kenpachi or grush would be. He's not that kind of shitty player slash bad case magnet. It's just that for marv to propose him for lynch based on that plan is scummy. He's right about me always pushing this idea althoguh I think he's overreacting to marv's reaction. So actually not that many people commented on it even though I thought like everyone did oops. My views: scummy responses: austinmcc, dropbear null responses: marv, mattchew, keirathi, strongandbig townie response: gonzaw did not respond directly although was in the thread: Risen, sciberbia, solstice This is so, so scummy looking. I hope to god this isn't a repeat of SSB, but I seriously can't ignore this post. I also agree strongly with Mattchew's point about Talis' case on Dropbear looking contrived/manufactured. I agree strongly with sciberbia's point about Talis' treatment of Vivax. ______________________________ I very badly want to kill Risen On July 14 2012 07:07 Risen wrote: You think you'll feel bad? I'm probably going to die if Viv flips town to a vig shot.... On July 14 2012 07:22 Risen wrote: Well... fuck. No way... Vivax you seriously, seriously need to read the how to be town threads and fix your posting. On July 14 2012 07:23 Risen wrote: Also, every single read I had in this game centered on Vivax being scum. So now I don't have any reads, I'm hungover, I'm tired, I have to do laundry... Today has been a bad day. I'm so demoralized I don't even want to play anymore  On July 16 2012 04:40 Risen wrote: I'm super sad I supported mattchew as town earlier. He's been playing pretty much just like he did as scum in his last game with me, that is, being hella lurky and trying to fly under the radar. Also, I don't know how to feel about the tali or DropBear case. Marv is confirmed towny and he really disliked tali (I think, maybe it was DB but I remember it being tali I just woke up and will go through the filters). I literally have nothing so I might just end up going with what marv wanted. I'm so unconfident in myself now it's kind of funny rofl (as opposed to my usualy self). I still don't like the people who defended vivax strongly, though. I just can't wrap my head around him being a townie... I'm bad, and I should feel bad :< On July 16 2012 04:44 Risen wrote: Going to lunch with my mentee, going to the store, then I'll be back. I'll go through and rebuild everything with Viv as a townie in mind (still... STILL hurts me on the inside that he was town and I could be so wrong. I have never felt so certain of someone being scum) These posts are scummy as shit. The amount of guilt he professes to be feeling is waaaaay out of proportion. He keeps harping on it because he is extra sensitive to the fact that he just lead a mislynch as scum. He can't help but address it over and over, even though nobody is really putting the skids to him that hard. This is textbook scum auto-guilt. His play-by-play leading up the lynch was pretty scummy too. As I said earlier, I don't think anyone on the town side was feeling anything but anxiety during the day 1 lynch. Also, he didn't try hard to push people on to Vivax, when votes on Dropbear were making it a pretty close race. He was just content to comment boisterously about the action. His emotion/behavior here match up pretty well with a scummer seeing two townies being up for lynch. These two things are more than enough for me to want to kill him. I'm cool with killing Talis today, but I want Risen to be next. ##vote talismania | ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
sciberbia I want to know what you think of Risen as well | ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
Do you think Talis may be town? | ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
On July 17 2012 03:27 Miltonkram wrote: Regarding the case on talismania, I'm really uncomfortable about it. There's a lot in his filter that I find strange such as his obsession with his D1 plan and his subpar case-making. The thing that gives me pause is the fact that he continued commenting on his plan despite getting a ton of shit for it. I realize this is completely different from what I was saying earlier, but the fact that he followed his plan through to completion, whether or not it was a good plan in other people's eyes, gives me the impression that he thought it was a good plan. His D1 plan counts as a townie point in my book. This is a really good point. I need to revisit this. | ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
On July 17 2012 03:34 sciberbia wrote: @miltonkram If you recall, I correctly read vivax as townie in XV. Like marv said on D1, vivax actually seemed a bit calm this game compared to what I remembered of him. I compared the filters from XV, this game, and one game where he was scum in between. His filter this game looked nothing like his scum filter, but I figured he might've simply learned from his mistakes. His filter this game didn't seem quite like town vivax either, hence why I was comfortable lynching him. I think your opinion of me might change after we see talis flip scum. The fact that he hasn't posted in like 22 hours even with mounting suspicion against him pretty much confirms him as scum imo. sciberbia I think it's a little weird that you have no misgivings about how this lynch has no resistance. The portion of Milton's post I just quoted...what do you make of it? Remember that you can't just look at someone's words, but the intent behind them. It doesn't matter what we think of Talis' behavior concerning the plan. What matters is what he thinks about it. Milton points out how Talis carries through with it, despite knowing the flak it is generating against him. Is the more logical motivation for this a) townie who thinks he is doing good for town, or b) scum who is trying to fill space, knowing that people are directly looking at him do it | ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
what do you think of Milton's point On July 17 2012 03:27 Miltonkram wrote: Regarding the case on talismania, I'm really uncomfortable about it. There's a lot in his filter that I find strange such as his obsession with his D1 plan and his subpar case-making. The thing that gives me pause is the fact that he continued commenting on his plan despite getting a ton of shit for it. I realize this is completely different from what I was saying earlier, but the fact that he followed his plan through to completion, whether or not it was a good plan in other people's eyes, gives me the impression that he thought it was a good plan. His D1 plan counts as a townie point in my book. | ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
In response to your question about why I voted Risen, I had him along with Milton on D1 on my 'to-kill' list. Nobody was interested in killing Milton, so I went with Risen. I had to leave before all the late movement, so my vote stayed where it was. You find the reasons for my suspicions on Risen suspect, so I'll explain. As far as Risen posting about it being too early to make reads, it has nothing to do with if he is right or not. My point is when he does, or doesn't say it. He actually does say this when he is town too, but in the games I looked at it is more frequent when he is scum. My second part was him being forthcoming/defending his town reads. There is a reason I included both of those words. He did call you out, but he concluded you were probably town. Also, here is him defending Mattchew: On July 13 2012 02:55 Risen wrote: I've had experience with Mattchew being scum, as we were both godfathers who flipped vigis in some other game I can't remember the name of. I think he's WAY, WAY, WAY more active and useful this game ALREADY than he was that game. | ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
I was just typing how this was such a catch 22, I keep looking at Tali's filter and I have a terrible feeling he is going to flip green. I have to decide if I'm sure enough to risk dying for it : / | ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
| ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
| ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
| ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
Anyway though it doesn't matter. The thing is being absent seems like a weird play for either side. Quick note also. Go look at Talis' posting on Dropbear. It's clear to me that Dropbear's reactions to the prodding are part of Talis' read. Those questions you quoted are in line with that. Mattchew, where are you? | ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
At the time of my case, you were defending Mattchew. I only brought it up because Dropbear asked me about my thinking at that time. | ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
| ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
| ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
| ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
| ||
|
s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
| ||
| ||
