I think I've found scum. Sciberbia's approach to each of our three lynches has been different each time.
sciberbia's approach to the 1st lynch:
+ Show Spoiler +On July 14 2012 06:42 sciberbia wrote:
OK guys we have to lynch today!
I think there is least resistance to a dropbear lynch. I'd be willing to consolidate on dropbear. Is anyone strongly opposed to a dropbear lynch? Here he is willing to vote for dropbear because there is "least resistance" to a dropbear lynch. This does not sit well with me, particularly because earlier he had posted this regarding dropbear. On July 14 2012 06:18 sciberbia wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2012 03:55 Miltonkram wrote:
@ sciberbia
I would be interested in hearing your opinion of DropBear.
Sorry I just spotted this while going through your filter. In short, I am pretty neutral on him. His first post feels townie to me. His next couple posts feel sketchy. His vote on vivax is not a scumtell IMO. I think scum would be extremely wary of voting with so little reasoning. His conviction in a talis & vivax scumteam seems a bit suspicious. I really just don't have a strong feel on him one way or the other. I don't see how he's willing to consolidate on DropBear when earlier he's got a pretty neutral read on him. Most townies will do their best to push whichever lynch they think is better. If you look at our 2nd and 3rd lynch, sciberbia pushed pretty hard for the lynches to go his way. I've come to suspect that our first lynch was between two townies, considering the fact that now I have a fairly strong town read on DropBear. Townies didn't know that at the time and would have been extremely invested in the lynch. Scum would know that we were picking between two townies, and thus wouldn't care as much. Sciberbia didn't seem too invested in our 1st lynch, especially compared to how hard he pushed these last two lynch efforts. True, sciberbia did qualify his statement with this On July 14 2012 06:44 sciberbia wrote:
@Risen
I'd love to lynch Vivax at this point but there just doesn't seem to be enough support for it. but I still feel like he wasn't truly invested in how the 1st lynch turned out. I'm also wary of how easily he was convinced of Vivax's townieness. On July 14 2012 06:55 sciberbia wrote:
oh ow NOW vivax is giving me a really townie feel. Does anybody else see his last two posts as townie? This sudden change of opinion feels rather forced. I feel like it's a bit of a show.
sciberbia's approach to the 2nd lynch:
+ Show Spoiler +We all know the story, he pushed the talismania lynch really hard. I feel like both Mattchew and sciberbia came out of nowhere and put their full weight behind a talismania lynch. I don't remember who posted this, but they said that if sciberbia had bussed talismania it would have been an "old school style bus" where the player tunnels their scum buddy hardcore. Well we now know that's what Mattchew did, why not sciberbia too? This is a minor point and it could be incorrect, but with Mattchew so all-in on a talismania lynch I almost find it likely that his scumbuddy was also pushing for a tali lynch. Why get town cred for one player when you can get it for two, correct? Here are a few examples of him pushing the talismania lynch. Hopefully you can spot the differences between his attitude in the D1 lynch and the D2 lynch. On July 15 2012 20:42 sciberbia wrote:I feel much better about my reads right now than I did D1. Here are top 3 most suspicious: 1) talismania: I really want to lynch him. 2) gonzaw: I have a few minor points against him, but other than that it's gut feeling. He reminds me a lot of mafia Xatalos from NMM XV. gonzaw and talis are linked as scumbuddies in my mind. I want to see talis flip red before we lynch gonzaw. 3) keirathi: still seems somewhat suspicious; mostly for reasons I've already stated I really need a break from this game so I'm just going to make a case on talismania before getting some much-needed sleep. It's almost 7am here. I'll post thoughts on other people tomorrow.
My case on talismaniafixation on his planThis has already been talked about in other cases; those of austinmcc and miltonkram I believe. It's a bit weird how wrapped up he gets in proposing his plan, defending his plan, and analyzing reactions to his plan. In particular, I find his assemblage of reactions suspicious: + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2012 00:43 talismania wrote:Reactions to talismania's Shitty Plan
(for those who care) + Show Spoiler +marvellosityOn July 12 2012 08:54 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 08:50 talismania wrote:
pardon me for some half-assed musing:
since we've got majority lynch to deal with, what about some sort of nomination system? I don't like how majority allows townies and scum alike to save their opinions on people, especially day one and just hop on whatever bandwagon is happening near the end of the day. It would be nice if, say, 24 hours in everyone puts up a list of three players they want to see in consideration for the lynch and reasons why. Then all that gets tallied up or something and we decide between the popular choices. Actually you wouldn't even need to tally or enforce that. Just having everyone put up three names with reasons should be good enough to move discussion towards a consensus lynch candidate or two (hush s&b yes I am and always will try to get people to post their impressions of others). no next On July 12 2012 09:47 marvellosity wrote:
naw, I'm not killing anyone based on one post right at the beginning of the game (especially as pregame was quite active/friendly, it spilled over)
I'd rather lynch talis for his never-ending bullshit on listing names and reasons.
Seriously, 24 hours into day 1 and we're supposed to come up with reasons on 3 different people for why they might be scum? It's just nonsense.
Or... wait for it... I have an idea! If someone says something a person finds scummy, they can call them out and bring it to the thread! Wow, marv, you say - an amazing plan!
People shouldn't be 'forced' to make effort, the making of the effort willingly is what helps gives us our reads on people. Predictably shits on it, suggests policy lynching me out of his annoyance that I keep proposing these dumb plans. gonzawOn July 12 2012 09:36 gonzaw wrote:So, if the lynch was right now I'd want to kill one of these 3 guys: Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 07:56 Risen wrote:
Welcome to ICBINTMM in which Risen does not post in caps or call anyone an idiot THE ENTIRE GAME. Stay tuned to see if this actually happens...... Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 07:33 strongandbig wrote:
sup bros
i am currently watching Le Closer in french in my hotel room.
Scum y'all best get ready to get motherfucking interrogated Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 06:33 Mattchew wrote:
alight lets do this.
no zentor means no policy lynch based on names for me. You can see the recurring theme in all 3 (just 1 post, promising something/appearing they are eager to start but not doing anything else later). marv, talismania, anybody active, what do you think about these guys? If you had to kill one of them which one would you choose and why? (if you don't want to kill anyone then say so). Also this guy could die too: Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 08:05 austinmcc wrote:
Screw the number and size of posts. I'm not a scientist, but it looks like talismania's been town --> scum --> town --> scum --> town. Therefore, he's scum this game.
I know that millers are supposed to claim D1, but I don't see why we'd want claims on other roles right now. Except from marv, who needs to let us know whether he's a vigi or scum this game, since those are the only roles that he rolls. But at least he put a little bit more effort (although that's not town-telling) Dropbear and Milton haven't even posted, but well we can't do anything about it. Actually follows the plan - as I said seems rather townie. Especially the timing. MattchewOn July 12 2012 10:46 Mattchew wrote:
Also, talis has the worst plan ever with his 3 people thing. That just allows people to half ass push some stupid reads and then connections theories run wild and everything turns to shit shits on it solsticeOn July 12 2012 11:04 s0Lstice wrote:
Keirathi, assuming you are still around...
why so verbose about lurkers? what do you think of talismania's plan? I actually don't see him reacting to it at all yet he asks keirathi about it. Interesting. He did react to gonzaw's post reacting to mine. austinmccOn July 12 2012 11:33 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 11:06 Mattchew wrote:
Anyway I want to hear more from austin his first post doesnt sit well with me That's because there's basically nothing to my first post except "Millers claim," which isn't helpful. What I can add is that I think talismania's 3-case plan is bad, but that seems to be the general sentiment. Forcing arbitrary requirements on everyone isn't really going to help us, and is going to clog up the thread later. People are going to make halfhearted cases to try to reach that number, someone will inevitably only find 1-2 people scummy and we'd end up in some "does x not making 3 cases = scummy?" discussion, and we also might end up lynching people that EVERYONE finds a little bit scummy rather than someone that a few people have a strong scumread on for good reasoning. Can also add that I haven't played with gonzaw, but I've obsed his recent games. Anyone here feel like they do a good job reading him, and if so, can you post some tips? I've found that I almost always end up reading him as scum, because he is active enough and posts enough that I keep finding scummy things to latch on to. Had him scum at the end of liar game just prior to the katina lynch, but also found him really scummy in the recent MTG because I felt like some of the plans he pushed hard were anti-town (check the obsqt early on, although I didn't post much there). So...any magical tricks for getting the right read on Gonzaw? Actually this reads scummy again on the second go-round too. He says he's about to "add" something but literally just copies/expands on what marv said and doesn't add anything at all. KeirathiOn July 12 2012 11:54 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 11:04 s0Lstice wrote:
Keirathi, assuming you are still around...
why so verbose about lurkers? what do you think of talismania's plan? Sorry was getting dinner. I was verbose because I have some shared experience with sciberbia, whom I was replying to. I know that most (all?) of his TL mafia experience was in newbie games, and the dynamic is just different when you can assume that people know how to play the game. As far as talismania's plan, I feel like it makes it too easy for mafia to blend in. The more townies you have making arguments against other townies, the easier you can push mislynches and not have to take any blame for them. There are other things wrong with it, but Mattchew and austin beat me to it. No need rehashing what they said. Mmm I think this is innocuous. He might not even have responded if he hadn't been asked to. DropBearOn July 12 2012 15:18 DropBear wrote:This is silly. Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 08:50 talismania wrote:
pardon me for some half-assed musing:
since we've got majority lynch to deal with, what about some sort of nomination system? I don't like how majority allows townies and scum alike to save their opinions on people, especially day one and just hop on whatever bandwagon is happening near the end of the day. It would be nice if, say, 24 hours in everyone puts up a list of three players they want to see in consideration for the lynch and reasons why. Then all that gets tallied up or something and we decide between the popular choices. Actually you wouldn't even need to tally or enforce that. Just having everyone put up three names with reasons should be good enough to move discussion towards a consensus lynch candidate or two (hush s&b yes I am and always will try to get people to post their impressions of others). This isn't going to happen and would just waste time.
On the majority lynch, day 1 this tends to be a right kerfuffle. I can't think of any system that has ever worked on day 1 in games I have been part of. So fuck a system, we deal with it when the time comes. There should be solid candidates by then anyway. Actually this doesn't sit that well with me at all. Conversation had started to move on and then he brings it back to my plan and says the same shit everyone else did. I also don't like his misrepresentation of my views on the roleblocker's use of their power. strongandbigOn July 12 2012 16:51 strongandbig wrote:Hey bros For people who weren't in ssb or mtg mafias, just wanted to let you guys know I am currently in Europe, where I don't have a cell phone data plan. This means I can only post when I have wifi, which is a change from my normal method. I've also been busy at work so please don't expect much from me before 8pm CET.
Now for serious stuff: I'm going to be watching marv like a motherfuking hawk. I think hosts tend to try to "balance" games sometimes by tweaking their scum team selection; however, that can and has led to extra info from town through balance speculation. Marvellosity makes an extremely tempting player for hosts to do this kind of balancing, because his scum play is empirically very good, but he isn't a "veteran" so he's not likely to be the subject of balance speculation. I also suspect bugs of doing this kind of balancing. + Show Spoiler [reasons, from wheel of fortune.] +The last of his c++ games I played in was wheel of fortune. That was a stacked game and I was one of the worst players in it, although I did eventually manage to figure out the scum team (and got shot for having correct reads before I could push some of them). With the benefit of hindsight, that scum team looks almost perfectly balanced for the player base. Radfield was town, ace was scum. VE and Forumite were both good players, but only on the edge of being full-on vets. I firmly believe that town would have won that game if Radfield hadn't decided to use a DT check on Ace, who was godfather. That kind of closeness is the sign of a well-balanced game; and the odds that both town and scum would have their best player as their best power role are very small from pure chance. So what does this mean? I am NOT proposing to policy lynch marvellosity; if he's town he can be a great asset, and besides that's totally against the spirit of the game. What I AM saying is that I think when someone points out something scummy he does, we should take it pretty seriously. Pure chance wouldn't explain why he has rolled scum in something like half his games since our first game together (noob 6) while I have rolled it once - him being good and me not does explain that.
NOW: having told you why you should pay attention, I'm going to point out something scummy marv has done. That thing is: propose/say he would be okay with lynching Talismania. Talismania's plan IS anti town. When Ace is host and he tells an obs QT how good a plan is for scum, you better believe he knows what he's talking about. Systematic case proposing plans give scum an excuse to make shitty reads and blend in, because everyone is making shitty cases and dumb reads. That kind of plan dilutes good information and adds bad information. HOWEVER: Talismania proposes this plan as town. All the time. Like, every game. Usually "pushing scummy plans" is a decent scum tell; but this specific player pushing this specific plan is not. And Marvellosity should know this. Marv has obs'd at least two games where Talismania proposed this plan or a variation of it (ssb, bangbang). Tali has proposed this in other games. Marv is the kind of player who pays attention; he should also know that I've pushed tali hard for these plans in the past, as have others. Marv putting tali forward as his first lynch candidates comes down to an easy push on an easy target for reasons he should know are bad. Marv, I'm watching you.+ Show Spoiler [on Talismania, briefly] + I'm not saying tali is an easy target in general, like kenpachi or grush would be. He's not that kind of shitty player slash bad case magnet. It's just that for marv to propose him for lynch based on that plan is scummy. He's right about me always pushing this idea althoguh I think he's overreacting to marv's reaction. So actually not that many people commented on it even though I thought like everyone did oops. My views: scummy responses: austinmcc, dropbear null responses: marv, mattchew, keirathi, strongandbig townie response: gonzaw did not respond directly although was in the thread: Risen, sciberbia, solstice This just feels like one of those busy-work summaries that scum do to make it look like they are contributing. It also ties in with his insisting that his plan has promoted discussion. Overall, all this talk about the plan is unproductive and slightly suspicious. consistently wishy/washyHere are some examples of some wishy/washiness. Several of these raise yellow flags for me: + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2012 07:54 talismania wrote:I don't like milkton's last post either. There's a touch of omgus to my feelings there but I also think his argument he just made about me doesn't make much sense. Although come to think of it I dunno why he would come in out of the cold and start making a case on me does seem a bit random as scum.
austin's reply to my poke at his post was rather overwrought which fits with my model of him as nervous scum but I guess that could just be the way the guy is too. solstice you said you know him - what do you make of it? On July 14 2012 01:32 talismania wrote:
solstice: I really like the case marv made on him, actually, but for some reason I don't know if I can move beyond a null on him. Like I think the first half of his filter is scummy (the part marv showed), the second half townie. Overall he is playing fairly relaxed, which is usually a town indicator as well. On the other hand he's also been fairly focused on just a couple players, which is a scum indicator.
Keirathi: Well he's conditional town or conditional scum at this point. Like I think he was way too neutral in the beginning as someone else pointed out but he's also onto dropbear as I am.
On July 14 2012 01:43 talismania wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2012 01:39 marvellosity wrote:
quick question tali - what pushes you to Dropbear rather than austin? actually that is a decent question. I originally ranked them that way in my head from way back when I analyzed reactions to my posts and it sort of has stuck since then. Mmm I guess thinking it over I can't think of a fantastic reason for one over the other to be honest with you. On July 14 2012 06:00 talismania wrote:
@risen I don't know what to make of the risen v vivax to be honest. I liked your case against him but I'm still stuck on dropbear. and if dropbear is scum I can't see vivax being scum either. mmm I better not be tunneling again like I did last time to HiroPro. On July 14 2012 06:08 talismania wrote:
I dunno. I'm starting to think my case on austin is actually stronger than my case on dropbear was in the first place to be perfectly honest. However milton and keirathi also brought up good points on dropbear I think. Unless they were just trying to nudge a bandwagon along? Mmm shit.
On July 14 2012 06:39 talismania wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2012 06:32 marvellosity wrote:
no-one's gonna come with me on austin? I kinda want to but I kinda don't. My feelings atm are that worst comes to worst, if I have to be wrong about someone I'd rather have a dead town dropbear than a dead town austin because at least austin seems to be trying. especially that last one. seriously wtf.. I don't like his approach to the lynchI feel like we were just lynching between a bunch of townies yesterday. If I had to guess, I'd say there is only 1 scum between our many lynch candidates: dropbear, vivax, miltonkram, s0Lstice, austinmcc, risen, and keirathi. So I think the mafia must have felt very at ease and not really cared too much who actually got lynched. Talis was just too calm in the hour leading up to the lynch. For example, what was he doing in between these two posts: + Show Spoiler +On July 14 2012 06:08 talismania wrote:
I dunno. I'm starting to think my case on austin is actually stronger than my case on dropbear was in the first place to be perfectly honest. However milton and keirathi also brought up good points on dropbear I think. Unless they were just trying to nudge a bandwagon along? Mmm shit.
Where has gonzaw gone? I kinda expect him to be in here cracking the whip near deadline. On July 14 2012 06:39 talismania wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2012 06:32 marvellosity wrote:
no-one's gonna come with me on austin? I kinda want to but I kinda don't. My feelings atm are that worst comes to worst, if I have to be wrong about someone I'd rather have a dead town dropbear than a dead town austin because at least austin seems to be trying. This was a crucial 31 minutes. I don't think any of us actually had any idea who would end up being lynched at this time. But what was talis doing? Looks like he was just sitting around waiting for us to lynch a townie. In the last hour before the lynch, he really does nothing productive at all. He just says a bunch of neutralish things that don't really go anywhere. I also have serious problems with this post just after we lynched vivax: Show nested quote +On July 14 2012 07:01 talismania wrote:
well here's to hoping I was completely wrong For reference, here is the full extent of his defense on Vivax: Show nested quote +On July 14 2012 06:00 talismania wrote:
@risen I don't know what to make of the risen v vivax to be honest. I liked your case against him but I'm still stuck on dropbear. and if dropbear is scum I can't see vivax being scum either. mmm I better not be tunneling again like I did last time to HiroPro. Seriously? He says that he hopes he is "completely wrong" about vivax, but he hardly defended Vivax at all. If he really felt strongly about Vivax being town, he should have been positively shouting at people like me/marv/austin/strongandbig to put votes on dropbear instead of vivax, especially seeing as dropbear was supposedly his #1 scumread. But he was just saying useless shit like this: + Show Spoiler +On July 14 2012 06:39 talismania wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2012 06:32 marvellosity wrote:
no-one's gonna come with me on austin? I kinda want to but I kinda don't. My feelings atm are that worst comes to worst, if I have to be wrong about someone I'd rather have a dead town dropbear than a dead town austin because at least austin seems to be trying. On July 14 2012 06:54 talismania wrote:
argh wtf I don't want to swtich but I will if we need too. On July 14 2012 06:57 talismania wrote:
jesus risen why are you so excited? According to what talis has said, he really thought dropbear was scum, and he really thought vivax was town. I was a hell of a lot less sure than talis supposedly was, and even I was more invested in the lynch. All of his posts leading up to the lynch seriously bother me. throws suspicion on easy targets (my townreads)He throws suspicion on a bunch of easy targets: dropbear, austin, risen, s0Lstice, milton. In fact, he threw suspicion onto just about every lynch candidate, and onto nobody that was not a lynch candidate. His reads are just going with the flow. I feel like he is just gonzaw's parrot. He's quite friendly with both gonzaw and marv (people with most thread control IMO). Show nested quote +On July 13 2012 09:54 talismania wrote:
@marv: nice shit. solstice was pretty on point activity-wise in ssb64 despite being kind of wrong the whole game (he did get better late game). He simply hasn't been around this game that much. Very curious to see what he thinks of the austin situation since he claims he can read austin so well. Show nested quote +On July 13 2012 07:57 talismania wrote:
ps risen where you at? Gonzaw wrote some great stuff about you and I want to hear your cases/suspicions since I can't recall actually seeing anything from you along those lines yet. does not defend his townreadsHe never makes an against-the-grain townread. In his entire filter, I don't think he defends anybody at all. He supposedly had townreads on vivax, strongandbig, and mattchew, all 3 of which were under fire at some point, and none of which he did any defending for. This is suspicious to me. I have a really good feeling about this case. Can we please lynch talis today? ##Vote talismania I'd just like to note how sciberbia has laid his plan out here. Have you noticed him deviate from his plan of lynching talismania, then pursuing a lynch against gonzaw? He hasn't. I find this incredibly suspicious since town will often deviate from any plans they make whenever new evidence presents itself. It's far more likely for scum to make a plan and then follow it through to completion. Here's a few other examples of him pushing the tali lynch. On July 16 2012 08:53 sciberbia wrote:
@s0Lstice
Can you look at the cases on talis and reread his filter? I want your opinion on him. I really think we should lynch him.
On July 16 2012 09:02 sciberbia wrote:
@gonzaw
I'll post my thoughts on s&b next. Please post your most current thoughts on talis. Do you recall sciberbia pushing the Vivax lynch this hard? I sure don't.
Shit, I just noticed that the endgame is being posted. I'll just toss this out there and see if I was correct.
|
EPT
