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There's some merit there marv, looking at it further.
On July 13 2012 08:47 talismania wrote:
@austin
first as to this "two-part" business - the second part was not planned at all from the beginning. That was more of a lemonade from lemons let's see if there's anything there
On July 13 2012 00:00 talismania wrote:
you know for all the shit that plan predictably gets at least it never fails to generate a few pages of discussion. Btw the only time people ever followed a version of it was in bastard 2, but that was because I had a gun and no one else did (and it worked then). The point of it is and always has been to see how people react to it or comply with it, not who they accuse or whatever.
If it's not planned at all, then you went in only thinking that everyone would post 3 cases. Except you know that it predictably gets shit, so there's no reason to think it would work here. You say the second part was not planned at all, but also say the point is ALWAYS to see how people react, and then filter those reactions.
As to the vote, your filter is really heavily weighted towards talking about the plan, responding to criticism of the plan, and two people you think it shook out, DropBear and I. I think all of that is nonsense, and when you brush that aside your filter some roleblocker chatter and then another post or two. I want to see more, stuff unrelated to the plan.
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@bowling, drinking lots, if i do post it will be drunk
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I'm not comfortable with a tali lynch. Comparing filters I found Miltonkrams filter to be fairly empty and he targetted the easy target.
He posted
1. A list of his games to make himself available for a metacheck.
2. He comments on Talis plan being bad, and that being reason enough to be scummy.
My impression of talis plan gone bad so far: It's a magnet for players with no/bad cases to have a reason to post something accusing. The downside is that it might have triggered policy discussion and a lot of chaos, while promising a lot of clarity by forcing players to take a hard stance, so talis plan was risky from a town perspective, and I'd leave it at that. He said it worked in bastard mafia, let's leave it at that: It won't be used here.
3.
On July 13 2012 06:35 Miltonkram wrote:
I don't find the fact that he came up with the plan scummy, I find the amount of time he's spent defending himself from the fallout of his plan scummy. I think he's spent 3 or 4 posts just defending himself.
Defending oneself isn't scummy. If it's really the only thing you do, then yes, but Milton already knows that it's not the only thing tali is doing:
On July 13 2012 06:48 Miltonkram wrote:
EBWOP: I didn't notice that talismania was actually putting a fair amount of pressure on austinmcc. I still find the amount of time he's spent talking about his proposal scummy, but he has put a small amount of pressure on players.
still seems to firmly believe in a scum tali.
He doesn't have any other reads. He comments on Keirathi and sciberbia being unreadable to him.
I'll go for Milton if I don't see some arguments to his defense.
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On July 13 2012 08:38 sciberbia wrote:
These posts give me the feeling that Keirathi is just looking for easy posts to make. Especially the last one. I don't know why Keirathi feels the need to defend Talis from a very minor accusation from Mattchew.
Why wouldn't I defend a completely baseless accusation? He was flat out wrong. People making accusations keeps the game flowing. People making wrong accusations builds false cases and gets mislynches.
On July 13 2012 08:38 sciberbia wrote:
I could probably look through every other player's filter right now and find an original, insightful reason for accusing somebody. But all of Keirathi's accusations are based off evidence that had already been mentioned or just seems trivial and unconvincing.
Not really much I can say to that, because people made their points while I was sleeping. I was specifically asked what things I found scummy, so I replied. If I refused to reply, then I would have looked scummy too.
On July 13 2012 08:38 sciberbia wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 15:38 Keirathi wrote:
The only things that have thrown up yellow flags so far were people proposing less than optimal (read: bad) policy plans, ie talis, but I don't feel that was necessarily out of a scum mindset, just didn't think it through very well. However, like I said, its about patterns in behavior which is why I keep notes the way I do (which you saw in NMM XIX).
Here is the first time Keirathi talks about anything he finds even mildly suspicious, and only after I prompted him for it. He repeats the already-covered "bad plans" but doesn't really go anywhere with it. I asked him for suspicions and he wrote a few sentences which say basically nothing.
Again, I was specifically asked pressed for information. What am I supposed to do, stay silent?
I said it before, and proved it in Newbie XVIII: patterns are more important than any single thing. There obviously hadn't been enough time to develop consistent patterns.
On July 13 2012 08:38 sciberbia wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2012 03:33 Keirathi wrote:On July 12 2012 08:50 talismania wrote:
pardon me for some half-assed musing:
...
So I was going back through the thread looking for more information, when this leaped out at me. When I read it the first time through, I didn't think anything of it because I don't have previous experience with you, but if you propose the same plan in every game you play in, then how is it "half-assed musing" this time? It feels like you're pre-emptively making an excuse for a bad plan. And why, as a townie, are you half-assing things anyways? I don't buy into his point here at all. He brings up talismania's plan yet again, and makes some very easy criticism of Talis. "pre-emptively making an excuse for a bad plan" isn't convincing scum motivation to me. Talis's post is easy to criticize, but I think it's a stretch to say it's scummy.
Then we agree to disagree. Giving yourself an out when you're called out for bad play is mafia mentality.
The key point I was trying to make with that post, however, was why was talis saying he was proposing a plan without thinking it through (half-assing it), when it was clear to everyone else that had played with him previously that he had proposed a similar plan in those games. He even SAID that his intention was to generate discussion about it. So he had obviously put thought into what he was doing. Why say that he didn't?
On July 13 2012 08:38 sciberbia wrote:marv demanded some real reads and Keirathi posted this in response: + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2012 06:55 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2012 06:18 marvellosity wrote:
Keirathi, can you stop catching up and provide your views on a person or two? Certainly. strongandbig+ Show Spoiler +On July 12 2012 16:51 strongandbig wrote:Hey bros For people who weren't in ssb or mtg mafias, just wanted to let you guys know I am currently in Europe, where I don't have a cell phone data plan. This means I can only post when I have wifi, which is a change from my normal method. I've also been busy at work so please don't expect much from me before 8pm CET.
Now for serious stuff: I'm going to be watching marv like a motherfuking hawk. I think hosts tend to try to "balance" games sometimes by tweaking their scum team selection; however, that can and has led to extra info from town through balance speculation. Marvellosity makes an extremely tempting player for hosts to do this kind of balancing, because his scum play is empirically very good, but he isn't a "veteran" so he's not likely to be the subject of balance speculation. I also suspect bugs of doing this kind of balancing. + Show Spoiler [reasons, from wheel of fortune.] +The last of his c++ games I played in was wheel of fortune. That was a stacked game and I was one of the worst players in it, although I did eventually manage to figure out the scum team (and got shot for having correct reads before I could push some of them). With the benefit of hindsight, that scum team looks almost perfectly balanced for the player base. Radfield was town, ace was scum. VE and Forumite were both good players, but only on the edge of being full-on vets. I firmly believe that town would have won that game if Radfield hadn't decided to use a DT check on Ace, who was godfather. That kind of closeness is the sign of a well-balanced game; and the odds that both town and scum would have their best player as their best power role are very small from pure chance. So what does this mean? I am NOT proposing to policy lynch marvellosity; if he's town he can be a great asset, and besides that's totally against the spirit of the game. What I AM saying is that I think when someone points out something scummy he does, we should take it pretty seriously. Pure chance wouldn't explain why he has rolled scum in something like half his games since our first game together (noob 6) while I have rolled it once - him being good and me not does explain that.
NOW: having told you why you should pay attention, I'm going to point out something scummy marv has done. That thing is: propose/say he would be okay with lynching Talismania. Talismania's plan IS anti town. When Ace is host and he tells an obs QT how good a plan is for scum, you better believe he knows what he's talking about. Systematic case proposing plans give scum an excuse to make shitty reads and blend in, because everyone is making shitty cases and dumb reads. That kind of plan dilutes good information and adds bad information. HOWEVER: Talismania proposes this plan as town. All the time. Like, every game. Usually "pushing scummy plans" is a decent scum tell; but this specific player pushing this specific plan is not. And Marvellosity should know this. Marv has obs'd at least two games where Talismania proposed this plan or a variation of it (ssb, bangbang). Tali has proposed this in other games. Marv is the kind of player who pays attention; he should also know that I've pushed tali hard for these plans in the past, as have others. Marv putting tali forward as his first lynch candidates comes down to an easy push on an easy target for reasons he should know are bad. Marv, I'm watching you.+ Show Spoiler [on Talismania, briefly] + I'm not saying tali is an easy target in general, like kenpachi or grush would be. He's not that kind of shitty player slash bad case magnet. It's just that for marv to propose him for lynch based on that plan is scummy. He comes in by leaving himself an excuse for his inactivity that he can fall back on later, then proceeds to lay out basically an entire case based on pure speculation. Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 20:46 strongandbig wrote:
Plus he even referred to the fact that he does this as town and I find him scummy for it in the same post where he did it.
So why are you letting him have a free pass for doing it this time? Together, I feel this is a decent case for him being scum but his recent reply to gonzaw's post gives him so townie cred back in my eye. I'm still keeping an eye on him. DropBearI'm mainly suspicious here of his vote for Vivax. Show nested quote +On July 13 2012 02:58 DropBear wrote:On July 13 2012 02:20 talismania wrote:On July 13 2012 02:00 DropBear wrote:
##Vote Vivax the hell? any reasons beyond what marv said? I called him out as being suss last page, do you read boy? When his previous calling out of Vivax was simply asking questions + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2012 01:39 DropBear wrote:Vivax I am very confused as the reasoning behind your voting so far. Why did you choose strongandbig initially? Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 18:30 Vivax wrote:
@ NSH
It's cause of a habit. I just tend to expect links in underlined words <_<.
Back to the topic:
##unvote strongandbig
Very informative post about marv there.
Wanted to vote Milton next but he posted.
He tries to make himself pretty transparent by posting his games. It's a good sign, but nothing decisive.
Speaking of meta, sciberbia doesn't look good based on that.I was with him in two games and I feel like he's being different in this one.
s0lstice already pointed out the missing fast posts we're used to see from scib at the start of the game.
That alone is forgivable given the posted reasons. But the overall gut feeling is still bad cause of the overall style. What do you mean by an informative post? Cos he made a case he must be town or something? What are the differences in sciberbia you talk about? . He never explicitly said he suspected him of being scum, and tali called him out on this and he never responded. As an aside, its pretty frustrating that so many arguments in this game are based on meta. As someone new to TL, I feel like I am disadvantaged when you all have so much extra information on each other. Both of these reads are easy criticisms of players that have already been criticized. Keirathi said strongandbig left himself "an excuse for inactivity that he could later fall back on". This seems like another stretch. strongandbig just said he was watching a movie. That's not a great excuse for inactivity and even so only buys him a couple hours. I highly doubt that a scum strongandbig would be scheming about how to get out of posting for 2-3 hours. Keirathi also criticizes strongandbig's post on marv and balance, but again this had already been covered by other people.
No, his excuse for inactivity was being in Europe and not having a cell phone data plan. That gives him an excuse to be inactive any time he wants it.
On July 13 2012 08:38 sciberbia wrote:
His suspicion of dropbear was based off the vote on vivax. This is yet another easy point to accuse somebody on (a random vote) and again had already been covered in the thread.
Again, I agree that it was already covered. I can't magically make up things when someone asks me what my reads are. I pointed out the two scummiest specific events because I was asked to.
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Marv, the most crucial bit of your case/his filter for me is this:
On July 13 2012 08:35 marvellosity wrote:
There's no scumhunting in s0lstice's filter. There are leading questions to which he never provides his own opinion
Some of his questions seem to be for basic information. Like his question to sciberbia about Keirathi, it looks like he wants information, but it's not the sort of question that he'd follow up with a response.
However, his questions towards Vivax and Keirathi are pushing something. No followup on the Keirathi bit, but I also don't see a response from Vivax, so there was nothing to respond to there.
I agree that he hasn't done any scumhunting, which is out of place for him. But when you look closer at the questions he has asked but not followed up on, I'm not finding his lack of response damning. He can't really follow the sciberbia question up, unless he didn't feel like sciberbia's answer was enough. He can't follow up the Vivax question because there was no response. Waiting for his thoughts on Gonzaw and Vivax currently.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
He can't follow the sciberbia question up, because it was just an insidious way of placing suspicion on someone with no satisfactory answer either way.
I'm not talking about him 'following up' on the Vivax questions either, you seem to be misreading. It's the fact he's asking SOMEONE ELSE if they find soemthing scummy without proffering HIS OWN OPINION while he's at it.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
Like, it's easy to put it in shorthand:
he mentions that scib hasn't posted while he usually does as town, but what does HE think about it?
he asks Vivax about the people in gonzaw's post being scummy, but what does HE think about it?
he asks Keirathi about the verbosity, but what does HE think about it?
he asks about talis plan, but what does HE think about it?
The answer to everything is nothing.
What DOES s0lstice think? He thinks gonzaw might be town but he has to check, and he doesn't want to kill a bunch of people.
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His posts on sciberbia clearly implies he finds it odd. Sure, he doesn't say scummy, but do you expect him to have a legitimate thought about sciberbia's failure to post a pre-packaged intro post? That seems like a silly thing to draw any kind of substantial thought or read from.
I think the Keirathi/verbosity comment is also a no-go for me. What's he supposed to tell us he thinks? That the verbosity on lurkers is indicative of trying to have filler which is indicative of scumminess? IF that thought is there, I would expect it to pop up later with a couple other thoughts in a case on Keirathi. Both Keirathi questions are also before sciberbia gives his answer to solstice, so I can also see the verbosity question as trying to feel out Keirathi.
The answer to everything is still nothing, but I make less out of that than you do, because I don't think he can really give thoughts to 1/2 those things. I'd rather see what he thinks of Vivax, Gonzaw, and the last few hours in the thread.
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On July 13 2012 09:02 austinmcc wrote:
*snip* I want to see more, stuff unrelated to the plan.
There's somewhere you and I agree. I'll have my impressions/notes on everyone in the game prepared tomorrow morning. (GF coming home now).
@marv: nice shit. solstice was pretty on point activity-wise in ssb64 despite being kind of wrong the whole game (he did get better late game). He simply hasn't been around this game that much. Very curious to see what he thinks of the austin situation since he claims he can read austin so well.
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ooh Marv is after me. this is exciting!
so Marv...you are correct that I asked a lot of questions but didn't provide any answers of my own. I wanted to get people talking about something/anything. There was fuck all else going on in the thread at the time. I was active the evening of the daypost, and then a little bit this morning at work. The topic of conversation when I dropped in at work was gonzaw. You were pursuing him, and I wanted to know how you felt about a few things that looked town to me.
In regards to those two things...in you're view I'm wrong to read them that way. That doesn't make me scum, it makes me wrong.
Basically, nothing really was spiking my scumdar in the material that I had available when I was active. There were a few things that piqued my interest, and I worked off those. My thoughts can be inferred from the questions. I'm a little confused as to how you couldn't see that.
-sciberbia is immediately not matching his town meta. I find this suspicious, so I point it out.
-keirathi's most lengthy post is on a safe zone topic. I want him to know I noticed that, and apply a little pressure. I also want an early connection between him and talis (I had trouble reading talis last game, and I don't want to repeat the mistake.
-vivax has thrown his vote around like a boomerang. I want him to focus, and to draw some early links between him and the people gonzaw accused.
So hopefully that makes it a little clearer for you. As to who I want to lynch today and why...
Miltonkram: I found to my sorrow that making a case on a town Talis is an easy thing to do. This also means that he is an attractive target for scum to harp on. I found Milton's reasoning strange. His filter is small, but there are several references to the use of meta. He uses meta to inform his reads on Keirathi, Sciberbia, and austin...but not his top scum read? I know for certain that the information he would find would be useful to him here. His case reads as phony, and I think there is a good chance he rolled scum again.
Risen: I've spent a ton of time in his past games. The two biggest things he did when he was scum that he didn't do when he was town were: stressing repeatedly that it's too early to have reads, and being forthcoming/defending his 'town reads.' So far this game he has hit both of those marks. He defended Mattchew, and concluded that Dropbear being town is likely. He has said twice that it's too early to post reads.
I feel better about lynching Miltonkram today, and as such:
##vote: Miltonkram
Now talis, you asked about austin. Right now he is looking a lot like he did in his town games. There are no scum games for me to look at, so the meta argument only goes so far. He makes long posts with a lot of stuff that amounts mainly to filler, but he also plants a few nuggets of really good reasoning.
This game his effort matches, and I feel he has made some good points on Risen. Him matching his town meta is only one piece of my view on him, and it's largely unnecessary. His actions thus far seem pretty pro-town to me.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
damnit my case was so badly timed. dumb of me
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what do you think of Miltonkram, Marv?
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On July 13 2012 10:58 s0Lstice wrote:
what do you think of Miltonkram, Marv?
I'm not marv, but I'll give my initial impression of your case against him.
Your case mostly seems to be about his meta arguments, but all of them were based on games he actually played with those people, not on overall meta.
Maybe you're right that he should have gone back and looked at the overall talis meta, but I don't fault him too much for just using meta from games that he was actually a part of and not pouring over thousands of posts of other players to figure out their meta.
As an aside: your case against Risen feels stronger than your case against Milton anyways. I'm kind of suprised you voted the way you did.
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On July 13 2012 08:35 marvellosity wrote:gonzaw - I'm trying to digest everyone's responses to your posts. I agree with you that austin's massive bunch of text about talismania's plan was quite misplaced, but I don't really agree about your criticism of his case on Risen, they seemed decent points to bring up. It concerns me that Keirathi is trying to use meta (or lack of it) as a reason to back off him. Who I'm particularly interested at the moment (read - he's scum), though, is s0lstice. I had this nagging feeling in the back of my head that I was missing someone from all these thoughts you brought up, and it was him. He has a sum total of zero scum reads so far. Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 07:39 s0Lstice wrote:
like backflips?
anyway, in the other games I've played with sciberbia, he has had a post prepared as soon as the daypost hit the presses. it usually contains his thoughts on the typical day 1 fodder etc. needless to say he has never played scum.
I'm wondering where he is..
This post, what does it say? 1) sciberbia is always town (so far) 2) sciberbia always makes introductory posts fast at the start of the game 3) sciberbia has not done so here What we're missing is the conclusion. He insinuates the idea that sciberbia might be scum based on the fact that he hasn't posted yet, but he doesn't say it. He just leaves the idea there. Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 10:15 s0Lstice wrote:
maybe I misread, but I'm pretty sure Marv was addressing Talis with those lines you quoted, gonzaw.
As far as the names you listed, I wouldn't want to kill any of them right now. Austin has easy town meta, I feel confident I can recognize it. Mattchew, Risen, and s&b are just blank pages. I am nervous however of Risen making a conscious effort to change his play-style. I read him right in SSB64 but just barely.
Lots of people he DOESN'T want to kill. Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 10:57 s0Lstice wrote:
it's not too fast. day 1 is weird, and it only really gets going when people do what you do.
right now I'd want to hear from Vivax, mainly.
my dear Vivax, what do you think of the people gonzaw posted about? do you find it scummy that they appeared excited to post, yet didn't say much past their intro? "it's not too fast" - this was in response to gonzaw shooting out the blocks with scumreads and pointing fingers. s0lstice approves of this but does none of it himself. He asks Vivax if he finds something scummy, but he avoids saying that thing is scummy himself. Does Vivax find it scummy... idea planted - without saying what s0lstice thinks. Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 11:04 s0Lstice wrote:
Keirathi, assuming you are still around...
why so verbose about lurkers? what do you think of talismania's plan? More questions... ok. "why so verbose about lurkers?" - you tell me, how is a townie really supposed to answer that question satisfactorily? It's like, a non-question. It feels like he's saying he's suspicious of it without saying anything about it. He asks what Keirathi thinks of talismania's plan but HE DOES NOT OFFER HIS OWN OPINION. His final few posts in his filter are asking about gonzaw and his PM / # of scum crap, saying it gave him townie points. He's... townhunting? There's no scumhunting in s0lstice's filter. There are leading questions to which he never provides his own opinion (talis' plan, 'do you find it scummy' at vivax) or statements where he implies something but never says it (scib hasn't posted yet), and appreciation for gonzaw starting scumhunting early but doing nothing himself. I believe s0lstice to be the best day 1 lynch. ##Unvote
##Vote: s0lstice
...dude, are you scum?
You keep attacking and pushing the lynch of all my town reads :/
(first Vivax now solstice).
Or maybe I'm an idiot but I hope that's not the case
Also marv, what about S&B? What about Dropbear or Milkton? Do you think EVERYTHING I posted isn't worthy so you go and try to find scum somewhere else? I dunno dude, I posted that so people could post their thoughts about it (and hopefully) agree and vote some of those guys, not to have it completely ignored.
About solstice:
He seems way to enthusiastic to be scum IMO, for instance:
On July 12 2012 07:22 s0Lstice wrote:
hey all, I'm happy to report that I rolled town again.
lots of familiar faces for me in this game, which is a bonus. I think I've played with most of the people here, and I've read a game Keirathi was in. let's kill scum.
On July 12 2012 07:35 s0Lstice wrote:
also, totally agree with Gonzaw. claim that shit people
On July 12 2012 08:17 s0Lstice wrote:
sciberbia- welcome to the thread! tell me something about keirathi, since you've played with him briefly. did you find it easy to read him as town?
He was active in most discussions, and didn't hesitate to post at all, even if they were those "scummy questions" you are talking about.
I don't see him as scum, and again (just like Vivax, Mattchew and talis) I don't want him lynched today.
To Austin:
I don't see why talis is scummy because of that "2-plan" of his at all. Like, even if he's scum his alignment has nothing to do with his "plan" to me, so this whole conversation that spans paragraphs and paragraphs of stuff (seriously, you say things like "part 1 and the plan part 2 was so part 1 plan plan was part 2 of the second stage" and it's almost impossible to follow)
So apparently marv was right. If that was so why were you encouraging Risen to contribute? Why are you voting talismania instead of him?
Damn, you just post fluff after fluff and shit...but I'm not that sure if you are scum or not because of it :/
(specially after some people, solstice I think, told us you play like this as town)
You remind me of MidnightGladius, at least in his first games.
On July 13 2012 08:38 sciberbia wrote:My top lynch candidate is currently Keirathineutrality/passivity + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2012 00:57 marvellosity wrote:
Having a quick flick through a few filters, Keirathi comes across as sounding incredibly neutral. I've noticed the same thing about Keirathi as marv: that almost everything hes says is bland and not controversial. He does a lot of talking about very matter-of-fact things: On July 12 2012 08:19 Keirathi wrote:
Well, ideally since this is not a newbie game, we shouldn't have townies lurking much. Its a bit different in newbie games because people don't really know how to play, and since everyone here should have a decent idea of how to play, then people lurking is strategy rather than ignorance.
That's not to say that I think lynching lurkers is a particularly good idea, but looking into lurkers has more merit in this type of game than a newbie one.
As far as claims, I myself haven't played in a game where masons/roleblockers claimed, so I'll have to look into it, but I agree with the points made about RB'ers so far, so that at least makes sense. An unclaimed miller causes more confusion than its worth though, and I can't really think of a situation in which a miller wouldn't want to claim. On July 12 2012 08:49 Keirathi wrote:
We don't have doctors anyways. On July 12 2012 17:25 Keirathi wrote:
He said when he joined that he was going to be afk for 12-24 hours when the game started. On July 13 2012 06:00 Keirathi wrote:
Those posts are reasonably close together, and his response to me was the only one where he had been mentioned. Granted, its just the last 3 posts in his filter before you made this accusation, but it seems like a pretty baseless accusation.
Pre-Post edit: sorry I'm replying to this late. I've been working through the 75 posts that were made while I was asleep/at work making notes.
These posts give me the feeling that Keirathi is just looking for easy posts to make. Especially the last one. I don't know why Keirathi feels the need to defend Talis from a very minor accusation from Mattchew. unconvincing scumhunting + Show Spoiler +I could probably look through every other player's filter right now and find an original, insightful reason for accusing somebody. But all of Keirathi's accusations are based off evidence that had already been mentioned or just seems trivial and unconvincing. On July 12 2012 15:38 Keirathi wrote:
The only things that have thrown up yellow flags so far were people proposing less than optimal (read: bad) policy plans, ie talis, but I don't feel that was necessarily out of a scum mindset, just didn't think it through very well. However, like I said, its about patterns in behavior which is why I keep notes the way I do (which you saw in NMM XIX).
Here is the first time Keirathi talks about anything he finds even mildly suspicious, and only after I prompted him for it. He repeats the already-covered "bad plans" but doesn't really go anywhere with it. I asked him for suspicions and he wrote a few sentences which say basically nothing. On July 13 2012 03:33 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 08:50 talismania wrote:
pardon me for some half-assed musing:
...
So I was going back through the thread looking for more information, when this leaped out at me. When I read it the first time through, I didn't think anything of it because I don't have previous experience with you, but if you propose the same plan in every game you play in, then how is it "half-assed musing" this time? It feels like you're pre-emptively making an excuse for a bad plan. And why, as a townie, are you half-assing things anyways? I don't buy into his point here at all. He brings up talismania's plan yet again, and makes some very easy criticism of Talis. "pre-emptively making an excuse for a bad plan" isn't convincing scum motivation to me. Talis's post is easy to criticize, but I think it's a stretch to say it's scummy. marv demanded some real reads and Keirathi posted this in response: + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2012 06:55 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2012 06:18 marvellosity wrote:
Keirathi, can you stop catching up and provide your views on a person or two? Certainly. strongandbig+ Show Spoiler +On July 12 2012 16:51 strongandbig wrote:Hey bros For people who weren't in ssb or mtg mafias, just wanted to let you guys know I am currently in Europe, where I don't have a cell phone data plan. This means I can only post when I have wifi, which is a change from my normal method. I've also been busy at work so please don't expect much from me before 8pm CET.
Now for serious stuff: I'm going to be watching marv like a motherfuking hawk. I think hosts tend to try to "balance" games sometimes by tweaking their scum team selection; however, that can and has led to extra info from town through balance speculation. Marvellosity makes an extremely tempting player for hosts to do this kind of balancing, because his scum play is empirically very good, but he isn't a "veteran" so he's not likely to be the subject of balance speculation. I also suspect bugs of doing this kind of balancing. + Show Spoiler [reasons, from wheel of fortune.] +The last of his c++ games I played in was wheel of fortune. That was a stacked game and I was one of the worst players in it, although I did eventually manage to figure out the scum team (and got shot for having correct reads before I could push some of them). With the benefit of hindsight, that scum team looks almost perfectly balanced for the player base. Radfield was town, ace was scum. VE and Forumite were both good players, but only on the edge of being full-on vets. I firmly believe that town would have won that game if Radfield hadn't decided to use a DT check on Ace, who was godfather. That kind of closeness is the sign of a well-balanced game; and the odds that both town and scum would have their best player as their best power role are very small from pure chance. So what does this mean? I am NOT proposing to policy lynch marvellosity; if he's town he can be a great asset, and besides that's totally against the spirit of the game. What I AM saying is that I think when someone points out something scummy he does, we should take it pretty seriously. Pure chance wouldn't explain why he has rolled scum in something like half his games since our first game together (noob 6) while I have rolled it once - him being good and me not does explain that.
NOW: having told you why you should pay attention, I'm going to point out something scummy marv has done. That thing is: propose/say he would be okay with lynching Talismania. Talismania's plan IS anti town. When Ace is host and he tells an obs QT how good a plan is for scum, you better believe he knows what he's talking about. Systematic case proposing plans give scum an excuse to make shitty reads and blend in, because everyone is making shitty cases and dumb reads. That kind of plan dilutes good information and adds bad information. HOWEVER: Talismania proposes this plan as town. All the time. Like, every game. Usually "pushing scummy plans" is a decent scum tell; but this specific player pushing this specific plan is not. And Marvellosity should know this. Marv has obs'd at least two games where Talismania proposed this plan or a variation of it (ssb, bangbang). Tali has proposed this in other games. Marv is the kind of player who pays attention; he should also know that I've pushed tali hard for these plans in the past, as have others. Marv putting tali forward as his first lynch candidates comes down to an easy push on an easy target for reasons he should know are bad. Marv, I'm watching you.+ Show Spoiler [on Talismania, briefly] + I'm not saying tali is an easy target in general, like kenpachi or grush would be. He's not that kind of shitty player slash bad case magnet. It's just that for marv to propose him for lynch based on that plan is scummy. He comes in by leaving himself an excuse for his inactivity that he can fall back on later, then proceeds to lay out basically an entire case based on pure speculation. Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 20:46 strongandbig wrote:
Plus he even referred to the fact that he does this as town and I find him scummy for it in the same post where he did it.
So why are you letting him have a free pass for doing it this time? Together, I feel this is a decent case for him being scum but his recent reply to gonzaw's post gives him so townie cred back in my eye. I'm still keeping an eye on him. DropBearI'm mainly suspicious here of his vote for Vivax. Show nested quote +On July 13 2012 02:58 DropBear wrote:On July 13 2012 02:20 talismania wrote:On July 13 2012 02:00 DropBear wrote:
##Vote Vivax the hell? any reasons beyond what marv said? I called him out as being suss last page, do you read boy? When his previous calling out of Vivax was simply asking questions + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2012 01:39 DropBear wrote:Vivax I am very confused as the reasoning behind your voting so far. Why did you choose strongandbig initially? Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 18:30 Vivax wrote:
@ NSH
It's cause of a habit. I just tend to expect links in underlined words <_<.
Back to the topic:
##unvote strongandbig
Very informative post about marv there.
Wanted to vote Milton next but he posted.
He tries to make himself pretty transparent by posting his games. It's a good sign, but nothing decisive.
Speaking of meta, sciberbia doesn't look good based on that.I was with him in two games and I feel like he's being different in this one.
s0lstice already pointed out the missing fast posts we're used to see from scib at the start of the game.
That alone is forgivable given the posted reasons. But the overall gut feeling is still bad cause of the overall style. What do you mean by an informative post? Cos he made a case he must be town or something? What are the differences in sciberbia you talk about? . He never explicitly said he suspected him of being scum, and tali called him out on this and he never responded. As an aside, its pretty frustrating that so many arguments in this game are based on meta. As someone new to TL, I feel like I am disadvantaged when you all have so much extra information on each other. Both of these reads are easy criticisms of players that have already been criticized. Keirathi said strongandbig left himself "an excuse for inactivity that he could later fall back on". This seems like another stretch. strongandbig just said he was watching a movie. That's not a great excuse for inactivity and even so only buys him a couple hours. I highly doubt that a scum strongandbig would be scheming about how to get out of posting for 2-3 hours. Keirathi also criticizes strongandbig's post on marv and balance, but again this had already been covered by other people. His suspicion of dropbear was based off the vote on vivax. This is yet another easy point to accuse somebody on (a random vote) and again had already been covered in the thread. In conclusion, Keirathi's scumhunting is generally unoriginal, and unimpressive. A couple of his points feel like a stretch to me. This would be consistent with scum because scum knows that everyone else is town and has to try extra hard to contrive reasons why players are supsicious. Overall, I would rate Keirathi as somewhat suspiciousI've got to go now, but I'll be back in a 2 hours and I'll look at the cases on other players at that time.
Are you back yet? More than 2 hours have passed.
On July 13 2012 08:41 Miltonkram wrote:
I've been refreshing myself on the games I've played with austinmcc. He's definitely not the most concise poster in the world. I feel like a lot of the case against him is based on the fact that he uses a lot of words to convey his ideas which is something I feel he would do as scum or town. He's a null read for me. That leaves me with talismania as my top scumread.
##Vote: talismania
I'm off to work. I should be back in a few hours.
What about Dropbear, S&B and Risen?
Hmm, I find this fixation of yours with talismania weird. I think I agree with what Vivax said, I don't think your accusation of him is strong enough to ignore all the other accusations going around (on S&B, austin, Keirath, Risen, Dropbear, etc).
Hell I don't know why so many people are ignoring everything I said about Risen/Dropbear/S&B/austin.
To everyone:
If you had to lynch one of Risen/Dropbear/Austin/S&B/Keriath who would it be?
|
Several people have voiced suspicons of austin so I just did a close reading of his filter.
I think austin is probably townie
overall posting style+ Show Spoiler +A lot of the accusations against austin have been along the lines of: -- I don't see why he feels the need to talk about this -- He uses a lot more words than are necessary -- He has giant blobs of text I've played with townie austin in NMM XV and XVII and as s0Lstice pointed out, austin is matching his townie meta pretty closesly. I wouldn't hold his posting style against him because it just seems to be the way he plays the game. See these posts from XV and XVII: + Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 02:31 austinmcc wrote:Okay, so, we're really stagnating here. Got ... three votes? on three people. Not a lot of thread activity. I'm still looking mainly at Crossfire, a little at Suki. But this has to happen. LURKERS AND BROKEN PROMISESCrossfire - Crossfire has had a whopping 2 hours of activity this day cycle. Lurked, posted a few things in that time span, and now has not been back for 22 hours. We've got no reads from him, no response to the thread's suspicions of him, and that ain't good. Trackdoor - 16-17 hours MIA. Could be sleep/job, but he was active at a lot of different points of the first half of D1. Hasn't commented on anything since Rofl's case on alan. Mouldy Jeb - 22 hours MIA. Was active about 2 hours before this time and 2 hours after this time during the first real day of D1. Contributed some super shoddy reads, called out crossfire for lurking, and also gave us this: Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 04:34 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
I just got back from work and ill read over some of the cases that have been raised and post my view on the situation shortly. Broken promise to contributeGolden - Has 2 posts of substance + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 09:43 O.Golden_ne wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 09:25 austinmcc wrote:
-snip
I'm not looking to push lurkers early and stay on them for an entire day cycle, killing discussion, but they need to be considered and I'd rather be looking at them on earlier days than when we're close to/at LYLO/MYLO. agreed. NL is bad. Killing lurking is necessary. Lynching scum is great.  Lets get the ball rolling and squeeze out the lurkers early so we can narrow things down later on. Looking forward to scumhunting, i'm happy with the deadline on this as its 10am for me in Aust, which means i'll be able to meet the deadlines for lynching in the mornings a little easier. I'll try my hardest this game to meet these deadlines and to contribute useful information rather than filler. Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game. I want to be able to establish some basic reads by the end of Day one, and if theres no-one who's appropriately scummy then we lynch a lurker. Golden On June 14 2012 19:18 O.Golden_ne wrote: I apologize if i stray from the format i laid out previouslySummary of Day One - My Perspective. I see early on a bandwagon forming on Alan113, initially ROLF (i like how this nickname has cropped up) argument has a little basis but is quickly disputed and resolved by the group. Alan113 is now hard-tunneled by suki for the rest of the day. I'm finding this the most frustrating day one tunnel i've seen, i was indecisive regarding suki and then i saw her most recent posts and hoped to god she looked at something other than Alan113. But her argument against Alan113 here is essentially saying that he is mafia because he is defending himself. I'm finding it hard to see how Alan113 can do anything but defend himself up until this point. I'm sitting here at my laptop and i honestly am 50-50 on Suki. I like your writing style and you can word your insights well and you have been aggressive from the get go. These are all very useful traits in day one. Tunnelling Alan113, where i can't see a small case against him, however is a big cross against your name for me. Notable Events Day One - My Opinion Suki's barrage on Alan113 and her flash in the pan vote on Trackd00r. RAWFL's pushover regarding Crossfire's passing comment about changing votes. (could his following #fos be a response to a scum-slip vote-pull to then posture as a hardline-aggressive-townie?) My People! - The Presets. ( Queue this track for dramatic effect.) Crossfire99 - i'm agreeing with what he's said about being careful with your votes. I personally think the #FOS should be used a bit more. With his posts though i would like a little more player-read-relevant posts towards the end of this day =] Sciberbia - i know its a little dangerous for me to be using these terms early on (or at all) but i'm getting a good vibe from sciberbia. I read a pseudo-leadership role coming from him. His argument and opinions are tending to align themselves with me well. HeavonEarth - sorry for being afk bro. hopefully some of this analysis clears me off your radar. Reluctant to vote onsuki or alan113 at the current time, because i honestly feel like theyre clashing for the wrong reasons. i'd be more inclined to lynch suki just because of the tunneling, however i dont feel a Mafia would be so aggressive day one (MAAAASSIVE RISK, but risk = reward?). Suspicion??? i'm looking at MJ and austinmcc at the moment. I know its a bit rich for me to be pointing the finger at anyone for lurking. However i just dont like what i'm reading, especially MJ. The early gentle push on Miltonkram was a bit off. Considering it was a joke! I may make a case on MJ in the coming hours. Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 10:07 s0Lstice wrote:
Mouldy Jeb
There isn't really much of a case here. I went and looked at the Magic:The Gathering mafia, and his style is very similar. His style is dangerous, because it's near impossible to read. There is something to go on with his treatment of rofflwaffles, but that's it. Frankly, I hate the idea of him being around late game.
#FOS Mouldy Jeb . Filled a 34-hour gap between the first and second with nothing but posts that he was working on his response, to expect a post coming, etc. etc. Within 13 minutes of that second post, he's already responded to sciberbia to note that he didn't fully catch up on heavonearth and noted that he missed sciberbia case on crossfire + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 19:25 O.Golden_ne wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 17:27 sciberbia wrote:
Yikes only 16 hours until the deadline and I'll be sleeping/working during most of that. I'm really tired and going to sleep now. Won't be super active again until about 1.5 hours before the deadline, but I'll try to keep up with the thread from work.
It is really important that everyone gives their opinions on lynch candidates. If you'd be happy to vote for someone, say so!
Personally, I'd like to vote for suki, crossfire, or HeavOnEarth. I have no read on MJ or golden. I would not like to lynch alan. @Sciberbia. I only glazed over the HeavonEarth issue when i was catching up on everything. I feel like a nob because i remember he had that attack at me and i never really addressed it. I don't like defensive voting per se but i'll form and post some opinions on him shortly. Crossfire seems okay too me, i liked his posts. If he posted a few more like it, with about 40% more content (pulled a # out of my ass) on players and some reads/opinions on cases i'd be a happy chappy. Time will tell on this character. about suki, well read above. I want to reserve judgement on both alan113 and suki until day two. I think a Mouldy Jeb lynch may be a little more productive. On June 14 2012 19:31 O.Golden_ne wrote:
honestly i can't believe i missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire99. FML maybe i got the totally wrong read on him. Ima refresh my mind on HeavonEarth and Sciberbia and then post after i mull their feeds over a game of SOTIS. Talk soon lovers.
GauldenWahn . What? What was that? Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 19:31 O.Golden_ne wrote:
honestly i can't believe i missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire99. FML maybe i got the totally wrong read on him. Ima refresh my mind on HeavonEarth and Sciberbia and then post after i mull their feeds over a game of SOTIS. Talk soon lovers.
GauldenWahn Broken promise to contributeHonorable Mention - Sciberbia - You said you'd be away, but given the way this day is going so far we're going to need contributions when you return.
Where are you guys? Where are these promised posts? Golden, what about this - Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 08:27 O.Golden_ne wrote:
I'll seriously try my hardest. If i fail this game, i'll give up for good. <3 ? On June 05 2012 00:21 austinmcc wrote:Alright, looks like I'm a lovely replacement for Ange. Lurk around for more than half the day cycle, then finally get active. Now if only it would lead to the same results... Regarding today's lynch, my vote is on Vivax. Because we already have some robust cases and scumreads on him, I won't get too specific here, but I know that you haven't gotten much from Ange/me since pushing suki, so I at least want to show my reasoning. I feel like he's got a very good chance of flipping scum, but I'd like to hear some more from him. Parts of his filter do read town to me. ##Vote: VivaxVivaxAs long as we're considering heist vs. vivax for a lynch today, "defending suki" isn't really helpful because we're looking at two players that did so. So here are some specifics. - Comments made during the Suki/Ange discussion
Show nested quote +On June 02 2012 04:53 Vivax wrote:
And frankly, who the hell would want to lynch the guy who contributed more so far (suki) as opposed to someone who comes last minute when the votes against her are out already.
Stop getting soft and let's stick to the lurker lynching policy noone opposed to at the start.
It's a real bad time for controversy. I found this reasoning odd. His focus on who has "contributed" more. Suki has posted, but not all that much, and Vivax, I'd like to know what you felt Suki had contributed. It's difficult for me to get a read on this because I actually saw the Suki lynch and flip before replacing in, so I was a little biased here. But rereading, I don't get the feeling that Suki contributed more than Ange, who had come back and, while having lurked for a bit, was actually moving discussion forward and contributing a solid read and case. Show nested quote +On June 02 2012 05:55 Vivax wrote:
And frankly, even if Ange777 would turn out to be town, all this last hour confusion is thanks to her and the decision to play games when she can't be properly active in them. You don't join a game of starcraft to go afk while you play chess either, then to come back asking others for help when the enemy is in your base, blaming one of the guys who was playing actively.
If you are town, you should be really aware of the bad impact you are having on this game. I would frankly still lynch you just for that. I highlist this because again, it seems like Vivax is overly focused on earlier actions. Ange came back with hours to spare, as she mentioned she had plenty of time to post a case, argue back and forth, have other suspicions, etc. This wasn't a 5-minutes-to-deadline ninja return. Look at the last line in particular. Ange has returned, has made a case, has discussed. Yet Vivax is informing her that she's HAVING a bad impact on the game. Sure, she had a bad impact the first 24 hours, but since returning has actively had a good impact on the game. Times have changed. If you are anti-lurking, fine, dandy, but I find it suspicious to be anti-lurker AND state that someone is negatively impacting the game for NOT lurking. What is actually being negatively impacted here? The scum team. Further, although it's a little hyperbolic and so I'm not putting much weight on this, Vivax wants to lynch Ange for returning and becoming active. This is sort of a null tell, but worth discussing. He initially thinks Heist is town - + Show Spoiler +On May 31 2012 20:20 Vivax wrote:
Heist: I'll wait to see how he reacts to his arguments' dismissal now that sciberbia should be a confirmed townie.
If I was scum, I'd know about his status and wouldn't have taken him into defense against a majority.
However, given that i suspect others more for their passivity, I dont think that Heist is scum.
- then scum - + Show Spoiler +On June 01 2012 08:16 Vivax wrote:
With all that said, heist, you're either badly informed about the game or scum. Pick one.
- then town - + Show Spoiler +On June 02 2012 07:40 Vivax wrote:
Stop suspecting heist, he was the first to defend Ange777 against my accusations and kept that stance throughout this whole last phase. He would have wanted her to get lynched if he was mafia. . Then, towards the end of the night, he's back to suspicious. Which is FINE. We had a lynch, we had solstice die, there's new information there that should make people reconsider reads. But why does he change back to being suspicious of heist? Heist's bussing comment + Show Spoiler +On June 02 2012 19:48 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote:
[Vivax quote swapping vote to Suki]
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing. 12 minutes later, 'It looks like I am bussing'. Just saying, the choice of words kinda looks strange in light of the previous post, simply because you believe I am bussing when you don't believe he is mafia. Can't really call his post regarding ridiculousness of the vote a defense of suki cause he just comments on my actions, but I've already announced that I would not risk a NL. I don't like Vivax's indignity or that he focused on this phrasing, because it DOES look like Vivax is swapping over to Suki just to be part of the lynch. Vivax goes from being convinced heist was townie to being suspicious based on that little interaction, and, in my mind, the interaction doesn't support the change in Vivax's reads. I think he was looking for an excuse to get away from his townie read and push heist, who was really the best alternate candidate to push with solstice's death and his defense of suki. To those that interpet the bussing comment as some kind of slip, I strongly disagree. It's not quite a bus, because Vivax isn't pushing Suki for a candidate, but in fact, that's Vivax's entire response - "Your word choice is strange because I wasn't bussing." Throw the term bussing out and look at what happened from Vivax's end, he went from a town read to a scum read on heist, because heist didn't want Vivax to vote for someone that Vivax thought was town. How is that a legitimate reason to find someone scummy? His fixation on Eishi_Ki never felt solid, and I read Eishi pretty towny. The fact that he tunneled Eishi long after it was clear that Eishi wasn't going to be a lynch target tells me that either: (a) Vivax is mafia and posts on Eishi help it look like he's contributing and help boost his filter; or (b) both town. Really heavy tunneling 1 on 1s seem to be the latter, so that's actually more on the townie side in my mind. That's hastily constructed, but hopefully outlines my general thoughts on Vivax. It doesn't cover everything, and I know I haven't touched on heist or other topics. Never replaced in and it's odd to get started midway through. I've got to actually do some work at work and need to be active in my other game, but I should be around and post some more throughout the day. On June 08 2012 04:20 austinmcc wrote:On heistI found his voting scummy. However, I found it odd because he swapped to Unforgiven and that seemed like a play to have a non-Suki candidate in the mix now that Ange was back and did not seem like a legitimate target. However, given that I now feel like I do about Unforgiven, and given that Ange found him scummy while pushing suki (I feel like as her replacement I should try and put myself in her shoes for D1), I'm willing to believe that town could find both suki and unforgiven scummy. Ange happened to find suki scummier at first, voted her, FoSed unforgiven. Heist happened to find Unforgiven scummier early, voted him, then later suki. I don't find that bussing comment scummy, as I've said. Therefore, I don't want to vote heist today (However, I'd like for him to, you know, contribute here). However, I sought some non-tunneling coaching, and after considering that, I need to consider a heist lynch. Can you guys give me like...your number 1 reason besides the voting pattern and the bussing comment that you find Heist scummy? On golden/ShiaoPiStarting with Xatalos's initial post - + Show Spoiler +On June 05 2012 22:02 Xatalos wrote:
ShiaoPi
Nothing that would really make me think he's town (except his recent activity), but plenty to make me think he's Mafia:
- Vaguely defensive of suki (a confirmed Mafia) and also quite defensive of heist (another pretty likely Mafia at this point)
- Comfortable with voting Vivax for the whole Day 2... Then suddenly he's a neutral read just before deadline?? What the heck? How does self-voting make him look townish? Looks more like he was already planning for an escape route from the flip's fallout than actually reading Vivax as neutral all of a sudden.
- Suspecting Eishi_Ki with pretty flimsy reasoning (just suki saying he's town?)
- Suspecting me for having too little content, although if he had bothered to look at my previous newbie game (as vanilla townie), I had much less content compared to "filler" in that game - I think I've done a MUCH better job this time around on avoiding spam/filler, but it's just my nature, I like to write even if there's not too much to say
I'll be voting for heist or ShiaoPi on Day 3, unless something very drastic happens. and sciberbia's last post + Show Spoiler +On June 06 2012 06:59 sciberbia wrote:I think it's likely I die tonight, so here are my (possible) last words + Show Spoiler +
I understand you weren't all convinced about heist based on my arguments yesterday, but hopefully seeing the flips of Vivax, superouman and (possibly) me, you'll now be willing to lynch him. I don't really have anything new to say about him; just reread my filter. No amount of defense will convince me he's not mafia.
Given that heist flips red, I think shiaopi is very likely the last mafia and I'd request that you lynch him. Here are some points against him:
- golden's behavior toward me in the beginning was suspicious. He said that he wasn't really expecting a bandwagon to form, but he seemed really ready & willing to cast a vote on me if my defense wasn't good.
- golden said he'd be willing to lynch 4 people, all of which I think are town
- golden's defense of suki was really scummy
- shiaopi is defensive of heist, who I'm pretty sure is mafia
- shiaopi's stance on vivax went from "maybe there is a slight chance of him being a bad townie" to "wtf no idea" pretty quickly
If heist/shiaopi are not both mafia, I'm not really sure who is. I'm leaning at least slightly town on eveybody else, but I'd probably go with either miltonkram or eishi_ki.
Golden's posts: Sorry Shiao, you're stuck with them. You/Golden are the same alignment, Ange/I am the same alignment. You got dealt the crappier hand there. Golden DID lightly defend suki early on. However, when I look at the timing, he did so before the convincing cases had been made. I'm going to give him a little credit for that, because he didn't defend suki after suki was really taking a pounding. ShiaoPi's vote on Vivax: I did the same thing, but didn't publicize it. Heck, I did the same thing in my last newbie game every time I pushed someone that ended up town. Sinking feeling 5-10 minutes before lynch, but telling yourself there's no time to do anything, and if you were sure yesterday, and sure that morning, shouldn't you just listen to past self? At the very least, I don't get anything from this. YES, Shiao could be mafia trying to get cred. OR, Shiao is town and had doubts. Either is plausible. Suspecting Eishi_Ki - Suki soft defended Eishi_Ki like crazy earlier. One of the more surprising things I found while rereading. Like...3 times or so? Frankly, Eishi_Ki hasn't done much. If his filter was full, Suki's posts wouldn't stand out like they do. With so little to work with on Eishi_Ki, I agree with Shiao that the Suki posts make him look bad. So, I'm not finding Shiao scummy off of that. Suspecting Xatalos: Your filter is baaaaaaad on that count Xatalos. I haven't checked old game yet. But you're constantly moderating. Constantly asking people for thoughts, giving someone a gold star for a good post. It looked bad to me as well, before I really read through you and Shiao's stuff today. So again, I saw the same thing, not finding it scummy. sciberbia's points were mostly the same - the suki defense, the vivax vote/doubts, the defense of heist. Not really finding ShiaoPi scummy right now. Again, I wasted too much time this game day, so I'm going ahead and posting these two. Post on the case against xatalos coming soon. On June 08 2012 05:54 austinmcc wrote:
Here's why I suggest a mislynch. And this is entirely dependent on both not returning.
If both heist/eishi are town, we lose.
If ONE is town, we either lynch scum, mislynch and lose, or no lynch. It would take every single town vote on the non-lurking scum in order to lynch. Shiao doesn't think heist is scum. I still don't think heist is scum (Again, I need something beyond the vote and the bussing comment). So if one of the lurkers is mafia, either one of us gets convinced at the 11th hour or else we have to lynch someone other than heist.
If NEITHER is town, then we win if they both stay inactive.
That's why I want to no lynch right now. IF both are inactive, then the only situation in which we should lynch is if we are absolutely sure about who the non-lurking mafia is. So you need to convince shiao or i. Otherwise, it would have to be non-heist. OR we can no-lynch, because then we lose 1 mafia/1 town to inactivity and 1 to NK. We're then 3/1 tomorrow and can pull it off.
Unless we're 10000000% sure who the mafia are, a no lynch is the best option IF we don't get activity. Someone correct me if I'm wrong (gotta walk dogs, back in 15-20). We cannot win if both lurkers town. We can only win if both lurkers mafia. We can win with a correct lynch OR a no lynch is it's 1/1. I would rather have the extra day to be more sure.
Things that mess up that analysis - if we're in the medic/cop version. In which case ...I dunno. The optimal play would be something like cop claiming, medic not claiming, and hoping a medic save could get us another day in some cases? Or if either one returns/doesn't get modkilled.
On June 09 2012 06:38 austinmcc wrote:Okay so, here are some thoughts as I do a read through, without addressing the cases. I'm just reading through the thing and giving comments wherever a post of Golden/Shiao or Xatalos sticks out. Very disorganized, but at least I'll get it all out and you can look over it if I'm the night target: D1 - heist and suki are both pushing cattivik once you hit pg. 7 or 8. Golden also believes cattivik scum, while xatalos defends him. Golden not just saying he's scum, but pushing a scum read on xatalos towards eishi + Show Spoiler +On May 31 2012 22:40 O.Golden_ne wrote:
@Eishi_ki: Consider if Xatalos is scum. This is opinion on Cattivik, who i think is scum.
"Another player I noticed was Cattivik. So far he has been analyzing the game, posting reads, calling out lurkers - all in all, playing for town's win condition. I didn't like him giving sciberbia a free pass just because he was the "first to post", but disregarding that, his filter looks good."
Food for thought. Heist and golden continue to just sort of lightly push Cattivik as most of our confirmed townies come in and say they found him townie. D1 - this post + Show Spoiler +On June 01 2012 14:20 O.Golden_ne wrote:
@Sciberbia. I'm uncertain of suki at the moment. but i'm worried that a bandwagon is forming on him. we need to rationally consider a few options. i need to mull over suki's filter a while longer before condemning him. I feel that we may be more prosperous lynching some lurchers first, because as far as scumminess goes if suki is mafia (or anyone for that matter) chances are they'll keep digging themselves a hole if we can see it this early. I'm just so super wary of lurker now because of their potentially game changing absence.
I guess what i'm trying to say is. scumslips will stay on the record, and chances are if they are scumslipping this early they'll continue as time goes on. Lurker however, if not dealt with early in the game where they are less of a % of the team, may end up in the final rounds where the % of town per player is alot higher and the responsibility of town individuals is even higher.
These are my thoughts. more soon. x Take out the uncertainty, look at the rest of the message. He's not just uncertain of suki, but uncertain because a bandwagon may be forming. Just prior to this, unforgiven posts on suki and votes, sciberbia posts a sizable analysis of suki and votes. Sciberbia notes that three hours have passed since his case and nobody responded. When sciberbia calls attention to the fact that he posted a case and nobody responded, golden jumps to the rescue. He's uncertain of suki because a bandwagon may be forming. Yet the bandwagon is a whopping two votes large, and the second vote came with a sizable analysis of why suki is scummy. That's not a bandwagon. That's a bad excuse from golden to defend suki. D1 - Xatalos DOES keep changing his reads. And he DOES keep asking for other opinions. See things like - + Show Spoiler +On June 01 2012 15:07 Xatalos wrote:
I have to go offline until the evening, but there's a lot I want to comment on then. I must say I'm not as certain anymore about Unforgiven_ve's guiltiness after reading his latest post. What do you think about that post, s0Lstice and Suki? Did you get that slight townie read from it?
Superouman and Ange777, I REALLY want to hear something from you both soon. If Unforgiven_ve keeps up this style of posting, it would be better to lynch either of you (to at least certainly limit the pool of suspicious and useless lurkers/coasters). . When Xatalos backs of unforgiven and votes ange there are two votes on ange. Milton and vivax. Milton, I'm calling you confirmed town here, so you've got two townies and xatalos joins. What happens right after catalos drops unforgiven (only he and suki were on unforgiven at that point)? Suki decides to drop unforgiven as well and come over to ange. Either xatalos has the lead in pushing their two votes around or suki realizes that unforgiven isn't going to be a target now that townxat has moved, and moves her vote to keep it relevant and pushing a townie who might get lynched. So as of now, I'm reading Xatalos town and Golden scummy. Xatalos has moved, but moved with reasons and moved his vote at decent times. He's never the first on maybe, but he gives some reasoning and he's never the last off. Golden has held his vote this whole time, while suki moves around and heist is sitting on superouman. Ange posts her case on suki. Xatalos responds, saying there are some mistakes, not moving off of suki. He doesn't just tell her the case is wrong though. He says, + Show Spoiler +On June 02 2012 04:15 Xatalos wrote:
Ange777, your case against Suki gives me hope that you might become an asset for the Mafia hunt after all. More so than Superouman or Unforgiven_ve. However, you made mistakes / mispresentations. Suki jumping on the lynch push for you (in favor of his better Mafia read) isn't really suspicious in itself, since the other option was to basically vote for no-lynch (Unforgiven_ve had no other votes, so it could have as well been voting for no-lynch). It's actually the most logical thing to do as town (unless you think you can turn the tide of the thread in 3 hours) to ensure a lynch, even if it isn't your best Mafia read. I also dislike how you put so much faith in Unforgiven_ve's initial defense, while to me it just looked like angry deflection and dodging. Unforgiven_ve had one decent post later, but why you would bring up his most Mafia-esque post as his defense, I can't say. I can certainly see why someone would feel suspicious of Unforgiven_ve at this point. Do you think Suki is Mafia if you consider these points? What are your other reads? Please share what you can, as fast as you can. . I get a further town read off that. (1) He's responding almost immediately to her case. Not with a very robust defense, but just noting it. (2) He doesn't agree with it, but he's not confrontational about it. His post, if you read it without thinking about the current situation, reads like he feels good about the case, but notes that there are some things Ange might not be taking into account, and then he comes to the bolded part. He sticks Suki's name right next to the word mafia, and asks if she still thinks that Suki is mafia given the other items he brings up. He's openly inviting Ange to post another "Suki is mafia" post, and a stronger one at that. Again, part of the post looks like a soft-defense of Suki, but the post as a whole opens Suki up for more criticism. Ange has the bit where she FoSes Unforgiven. Xatalos follows her there. Not that odd, considering he'd already pushed unforgiven earlier. Easier to see him moving his vote to a non-ange/suki candidate when he was already on that person. Golden still has yet to (1) vote OR (2) comment on ange's case on suki. heist comes in to push unforgiven, to say he thinks ange and suki are townie. No mention of golden at all, who's the ONLY person yet to vote and hasn't responded to the suki case, one of the few players to do so. Why is heist not suspicious of golden? Thread brings up golden a few times, but he never becomes a giant topic of discussion, so it's not enough for me that heist doesn't call out golden for being absent because some townies fail to do so as well. Neither suki nor heist mentions his absence though. Okay, there's my D1 stream of consciousness. Looking back at that, I see golden coming off scummy, although the end of the day is ruined a little by his absolute absence. While xatalos moves his vote, I'm not seeing it move in a very scummy way. Moreover, the way that xatalos pushes for further information on suki feels very town to me. Also, as a minor point, I don't like how suki/heist/golden all pushing cattivik early and xatalos is not jumping aboard. Seems like maybe mafia team wanted to set cattivik up, because eishi_ki was suspicious of him, so you've got an easy bandwagon to start pushing. Notice that he is very fond of the large-blobs-of-text posts, and that he often makes posts that seem a bit out of place, but do contain genuine thoughts. For example: + Show Spoiler +On July 12 2012 11:33 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 11:06 Mattchew wrote:
Anyway I want to hear more from austin his first post doesnt sit well with me That's because there's basically nothing to my first post except "Millers claim," which isn't helpful. What I can add is that I think talismania's 3-case plan is bad, but that seems to be the general sentiment. Forcing arbitrary requirements on everyone isn't really going to help us, and is going to clog up the thread later. People are going to make halfhearted cases to try to reach that number, someone will inevitably only find 1-2 people scummy and we'd end up in some "does x not making 3 cases = scummy?" discussion, and we also might end up lynching people that EVERYONE finds a little bit scummy rather than someone that a few people have a strong scumread on for good reasoning. Can also add that I haven't played with gonzaw, but I've obsed his recent games. Anyone here feel like they do a good job reading him, and if so, can you post some tips? I've found that I almost always end up reading him as scum, because he is active enough and posts enough that I keep finding scummy things to latch on to. Had him scum at the end of liar game just prior to the katina lynch, but also found him really scummy in the recent MTG because I felt like some of the plans he pushed hard were anti-town (check the obsqt early on, although I didn't post much there). So...any magical tricks for getting the right read on Gonzaw? Yes he spends some time bashing talis's plan, but he does bring up a couple of valid points that nobody had previously stated: -- townies might feel pressured to make a stretch to reach 3 cases -- the plan would promote unnecessary bickering among town -- it would encourage us to lynch people universally seen as only slightly scummy Also, his question about gonzaw seems a bit weird for a townie to ask, but even more bizarre for a scum to ask. I know town austin gets frustrated when he makes bad scumreads, and I get the feeling he genuinely wants advice.
sheer amount of effort+ Show Spoiler +
austin isn't the most experienced or confident player, so if he were scum I'd really expect him to try to blend into the background. But this is something he has certainly not done.
He has put in some serious effort into his posts about talis and risen, and he has recently started sharing thoughts on s0Lstice as well.
gonzaw was wondering why austin spent so much time in Risen's filter only to conclude that Risen seemed townie. If you look at his posts, he is suspicious of Risen before he does all that research, but then changes his mind as a result of his research, so the research on Risen's history did in fact serve a purpose, as austin explains. Also, the amount of effort he put into researching Risen's past games seems much more likely to be town-motivated than scum-motivated.
@gonzaw
Go reread everything austin wrote on Risen. I think you are overly suspicious as a result of misreading austin's posts. Marv and austin pointed this out, but your vote is still on austin. Do you still think he is the best lynch?
Defense of s0Lstice+ Show Spoiler +
Austin's defense of s0Lstice also gave me a townie feel. I don't think that a scum austin would defend either a townie or a scum s0Lstice.
Scum austin would probably not be interested in dissauding an eager marv from his case against the unusually lurky s0Lstice (potentially an easy target and great townie to get rid of).
I also don't think a scum austin would have the confidence to defend an unusually lurky scum s0Lstice.
In conclusion, I'm quite adverse to the idea of lynching today. I think he is townie.
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Hmm, I'm thinking about switching my vote to either Dropbear or Keirath.
Dropbear tried to act all "tough" and shit but I get the impression he only tried to spout as many stuff as he could about plans/etc and trying to create some chaos by accusing people or discrediting plans/accusations.
His vote on Vivax is a joke (some people already went over this), and he hasn't done anything that makes me think he actually cares about town discussion, his posts just seem to appear like he's there doing something since he's so aggressive about it, but nothing else.
I get the feeling Keirath is more likely scum.
Like Matt said his reads seemed "forced", in the way that they weren't much reads at all. At least S&B's read, where Kei calls him suspicious but townie at the same time (and calls him suspicious for some bad reasons I think).
He seems fixated on "meta" somehow, thinking all of us are using "meta" to catch scum (we are not).
His defense of Milkton seemed out of place as well (like it came out of nowhere and he defended him just because of "meta" again, hell I don't even know why he's defending him).
Like said before his posts are too verbose, but trying to blend in IMO. He also spends quite time just defending himself which I don't particularly like (he could have been pushing for other reads at that time).
Let's go with this, but I'd be happy with a switch on Dropbear to be honest (hmm, I think S&B could be scum as well, but I'll wait till he comes back)
##Unvote: austinmcc
##Vote: Keirath
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On July 13 2012 12:07 sciberbia wrote:
@gonzaw
Go reread everything austin wrote on Risen. I think you are overly suspicious as a result of misreading austin's posts. Marv and austin pointed this out, but your vote is still on austin. Do you still think he is the best lynch?
My bad, I just noticed it. The thing is that it's like he thought Risen was town even in that 1st post of his, but maybe it's his own weird way of being suspicious
Hmm, okay, I think I'll let austin slide, it does seem he posts like this when he's town, and him being a noob could explain him being all over talismania for something irrelevant.
Sciberbia, I'd like it if you didn't spoiler everything you post, it makes it VERY easy to miss when filtering, and makes it kind of hard to find anything specific you wrote.
@talismania: Could you read my post about Risen/Dropbear/S&B/Keirath and post your thoughts? If someone posts again about your "plan" just ignore it, please don't clutter the thread up more by it.
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my response to marv's case on s0Lstice
I noticed how quiet s0Lstice has been and thought marv's case looked promising. But upon further review, Overall I'm a bit torn on s0Lstice. I want to see more from him and do not think he's a good lynch today.
slightly scummy points:
subpar scumhunting
His only real accusations are on Miltonkram and Risen, and I'm not really impressed by either of his cases. I'm used to more from s0Lstice.
However, I really think even scum s0Lstice would be capable of doing some more impressive scumhunting, so I think it's quite likely that he's simply been busy or having an off day, and that his quietness says nothing about his allignment. I'll be paying close attention to his future cases.
townhunting on gonzaw
This was distinctly odd to me. Marv gave a null read on gonzaw, and s0Lstice argued that gonzaw should be a town read. Nobody has even been accusing gonzaw, so why does s0Lstice defend gonzaw from marv's null read? A bit fishy.
Null points:
s0Lstice's comment on my late post
On July 12 2012 07:39 s0Lstice wrote:
anyway, in the other games I've played with sciberbia, he has had a post prepared as soon as the daypost hit the presses. it usually contains his thoughts on the typical day 1 fodder etc. needless to say he has never played scum.
I'm wondering where he is..
@marv, I really don't think his comment is 'insidious'. In all three games I've played with s0Lstice, I've made a rather sizeable post very shortly after the daypost which has usually been a topic of discussion. As I said earlier, I was half-expecting someone to comment on my absense. And anyways, I really don't think s0Lstice was expecting for this point to go anywhere -- it's rather trivial.
s0Lstice's probing questions
Marv took issue with s0Lstice's probing questions at the start of the game without giving his opinion. I don't really see this as suspicious. s0Lstice asked some similar questions in NMM XV and XVII, and while it is true that he refrained from giving his own opinions, s0Lstice doesn't strike me as the kind of guy that would be afraid of being aggressive as scum.
townie points:
s0Lstice's defense of austinmcc
This is a serious townie point for s0Lstice in my eyes. I think austin is probably town, and I think that s0Lstice's defense of austin was quite significant seeing as austin has some serious suspicion on him and s0Lstice seems to be regarded as the authority on all things austin. I think it's unlikely that a scum s0Lstice would hard-defend a town austin in that situation.
In Conclusion
I don't see anything that scummy about s0Lstice, so I wouldn't be comfortable with lynching s0Lstice today. However, I will definitely be keeping a close eye on him, because he hasn't done much to convince me he is town either.
I've been digging through filters, and here is my concise opinion on some popular names
keirathi: still most suspicious
vivax: 2nd most suspicious
dropbear/risen/miltonkram/s0Lstice: All of these are nullish reads for me, and I wouldn't feel great about lynching any of them. If I had to pick one right now, it'd be dropbear.
strongandbig: probably town
austinmcc: probably town
I'll try to post more of my reasoning before I go to bed (especially on Vivax and strongandbig). Since I've now looked through every filter and still find keirathi most suspicious, I will
##Vote keirathi
I'll be playing monobattles with some friends for the next hour or two.
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@gonzaw: You're right, you're not using meta to find scum. I never said that you were. You ARE using meta to confirm or deny cases people make though. For instance, you just did it ("Hmm, okay, I think I'll let austin slide, it does seem he posts like this when he's town,") in your reply to sciberbia about austin.
I'm not saying that that is a bad thing, but people are making arguments about me and no one can refute them with "well he always plays town like that" like they have for most of the other cases in this game.
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EBWOP: That is to say, its unfair to me, but I guess I understand it to an extent.
I have a different way of looking at the game and I don't particularly like the whole "point at finger at everything until something sticks" way that day 1 tends to play out as. I'm fairly good at making reads from connections and patterns, but not from this day 1 bullshit. If that is enough to get my lynched, then so be it. I'll play this way any time that I'm town. But at least you aren't killing off a blue, so I'm not really that upset about it.
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EPT
