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I Can't Believe it's not Themed MiniMafia - Page 19

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
July 13 2012 13:30 GMT
#361
scum = not town, it includes SK
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22414 Posts
July 13 2012 13:32 GMT
#362
For once I'll agree with you marv. Using self-presented behavior as argumentation is not reliable. Inconsistencies between arguments and intentions are much better for scumhunting.

Miltons intentions and arguments are :

1. Lynch talis based on (imo) weak arguments. At least too weak to draw such a quick decision about the lynch target. To me it just looks like Milton's trying to pick a target to blend in and call it a day, while defending himself like he does in point 2.

2. Defend from s0lstice using arguments not designed to defend oneself, but to attack s0lstice. That's also the inconsistency. If you think s0lstice is playing scummy, make a case against him. But don't point out things you find scummy and expect that to be your defense against that players' arguments.
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
July 13 2012 13:33 GMT
#363
On July 13 2012 22:30 marvellosity wrote:
scum = not town, it includes SK


*sigh* I obviously mean "mafia", not just "an anti-town faction"
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
July 13 2012 13:33 GMT
#364
mafia means mafia, scum means anti-town, but ok gonzaw. I could squabble with you for hours
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
July 13 2012 13:36 GMT
#365
gonzaw: what do you make of this?

On July 13 2012 10:21 s0Lstice wrote:

Miltonkram: I found to my sorrow that making a case on a town Talis is an easy thing to do. This also means that he is an attractive target for scum to harp on. I found Milton's reasoning strange. His filter is small, but there are several references to the use of meta. He uses meta to inform his reads on Keirathi, Sciberbia, and austin...but not his top scum read? I know for certain that the information he would find would be useful to him here. His case reads as phony, and I think there is a good chance he rolled scum again.

Risen: I've spent a ton of time in his past games. The two biggest things he did when he was scum that he didn't do when he was town were: stressing repeatedly that it's too early to have reads, and being forthcoming/defending his 'town reads.' So far this game he has hit both of those marks. He defended Mattchew, and concluded that Dropbear being town is likely. He has said twice that it's too early to post reads.

I feel better about lynching Miltonkram today, and as such:

##vote: Miltonkram


This game his [austin's] effort matches, and I feel he has made some good points on Risen. Him matching his town meta is only one piece of my view on him, and it's largely unnecessary. His actions thus far seem pretty pro-town to me.


On July 13 2012 11:33 Keirathi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 13 2012 10:58 s0Lstice wrote:
what do you think of Miltonkram, Marv?


As an aside: your case against Risen feels stronger than your case against Milton anyways. I'm kind of suprised you voted the way you did.


Mentioned elsewhere in my filter, but that was my gut reaction to s0lstice's post as well. What do you think?
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
July 13 2012 13:38 GMT
#366
On July 13 2012 22:32 Vivax wrote:
For once I'll agree with you marv. Using self-presented behavior as argumentation is not reliable. Inconsistencies between arguments and intentions are much better for scumhunting.

Miltons intentions and arguments are :

1. Lynch talis based on (imo) weak arguments. At least too weak to draw such a quick decision about the lynch target. To me it just looks like Milton's trying to pick a target to blend in and call it a day, while defending himself like he does in point 2.

2. Defend from s0lstice using arguments not designed to defend oneself, but to attack s0lstice. That's also the inconsistency. If you think s0lstice is playing scummy, make a case against him. But don't point out things you find scummy and expect that to be your defense against that players' arguments.


I hadn't noticed this, will go back and have a look because if you're right it's quite interesting.
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
July 13 2012 13:47 GMT
#367
On July 13 2012 22:33 marvellosity wrote:
mafia means mafia, scum means anti-town, but ok gonzaw. I could squabble with you for hours


Okay, Vivax may be the SK, happy now? >_>
(actually, is there a SK this game?)

On July 13 2012 22:36 marvellosity wrote:
gonzaw: what do you make of this?

Show nested quote +
On July 13 2012 10:21 s0Lstice wrote:

Miltonkram: I found to my sorrow that making a case on a town Talis is an easy thing to do. This also means that he is an attractive target for scum to harp on. I found Milton's reasoning strange. His filter is small, but there are several references to the use of meta. He uses meta to inform his reads on Keirathi, Sciberbia, and austin...but not his top scum read? I know for certain that the information he would find would be useful to him here. His case reads as phony, and I think there is a good chance he rolled scum again.

Risen: I've spent a ton of time in his past games. The two biggest things he did when he was scum that he didn't do when he was town were: stressing repeatedly that it's too early to have reads, and being forthcoming/defending his 'town reads.' So far this game he has hit both of those marks. He defended Mattchew, and concluded that Dropbear being town is likely. He has said twice that it's too early to post reads.

I feel better about lynching Miltonkram today, and as such:

##vote: Miltonkram


This game his [austin's] effort matches, and I feel he has made some good points on Risen. Him matching his town meta is only one piece of my view on him, and it's largely unnecessary. His actions thus far seem pretty pro-town to me.


Show nested quote +
On July 13 2012 11:33 Keirathi wrote:
On July 13 2012 10:58 s0Lstice wrote:
what do you think of Miltonkram, Marv?


As an aside: your case against Risen feels stronger than your case against Milton anyways. I'm kind of suprised you voted the way you did.


Mentioned elsewhere in my filter, but that was my gut reaction to s0lstice's post as well. What do you think?


Yeah I noticed it.

I'd like him to explain himself though (I don't know if he did), since I don't think it's something "scummy" in itself but rather could be more of a misunderstanding.
I didn't really pay much attention to it since the rest of his posts make me think he's town (I've already said why I think).

strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
July 13 2012 13:51 GMT
#368
On July 13 2012 22:47 gonzaw wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 13 2012 22:33 marvellosity wrote:
mafia means mafia, scum means anti-town, but ok gonzaw. I could squabble with you for hours


Okay, Vivax may be the SK, happy now? >_>
(actually, is there a SK this game?)

Show nested quote +
On July 13 2012 22:36 marvellosity wrote:
gonzaw: what do you make of this?

On July 13 2012 10:21 s0Lstice wrote:

Miltonkram: I found to my sorrow that making a case on a town Talis is an easy thing to do. This also means that he is an attractive target for scum to harp on. I found Milton's reasoning strange. His filter is small, but there are several references to the use of meta. He uses meta to inform his reads on Keirathi, Sciberbia, and austin...but not his top scum read? I know for certain that the information he would find would be useful to him here. His case reads as phony, and I think there is a good chance he rolled scum again.

Risen: I've spent a ton of time in his past games. The two biggest things he did when he was scum that he didn't do when he was town were: stressing repeatedly that it's too early to have reads, and being forthcoming/defending his 'town reads.' So far this game he has hit both of those marks. He defended Mattchew, and concluded that Dropbear being town is likely. He has said twice that it's too early to post reads.

I feel better about lynching Miltonkram today, and as such:

##vote: Miltonkram


This game his [austin's] effort matches, and I feel he has made some good points on Risen. Him matching his town meta is only one piece of my view on him, and it's largely unnecessary. His actions thus far seem pretty pro-town to me.


On July 13 2012 11:33 Keirathi wrote:
On July 13 2012 10:58 s0Lstice wrote:
what do you think of Miltonkram, Marv?


As an aside: your case against Risen feels stronger than your case against Milton anyways. I'm kind of suprised you voted the way you did.


Mentioned elsewhere in my filter, but that was my gut reaction to s0lstice's post as well. What do you think?


Yeah I noticed it.

I'd like him to explain himself though (I don't know if he did), since I don't think it's something "scummy" in itself but rather could be more of a misunderstanding.
I didn't really pay much attention to it since the rest of his posts make me think he's town (I've already said why I think).



"How many scum are there? Four?"

"There are PMs this game right guys? PM me!"

"is there an SK this game?"

... making me think you're scum here man
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
July 13 2012 13:54 GMT
#369
Yeah, it's such bullshit, wbg clarified twice in the thread what the possible distribution of scum/SK were. Feigned ignorance or simply doesn't read shit, either one is crap.
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
July 13 2012 13:55 GMT
#370
On July 13 2012 22:51 strongandbig wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 13 2012 22:47 gonzaw wrote:
On July 13 2012 22:33 marvellosity wrote:
mafia means mafia, scum means anti-town, but ok gonzaw. I could squabble with you for hours


Okay, Vivax may be the SK, happy now? >_>
(actually, is there a SK this game?)

On July 13 2012 22:36 marvellosity wrote:
gonzaw: what do you make of this?

On July 13 2012 10:21 s0Lstice wrote:

Miltonkram: I found to my sorrow that making a case on a town Talis is an easy thing to do. This also means that he is an attractive target for scum to harp on. I found Milton's reasoning strange. His filter is small, but there are several references to the use of meta. He uses meta to inform his reads on Keirathi, Sciberbia, and austin...but not his top scum read? I know for certain that the information he would find would be useful to him here. His case reads as phony, and I think there is a good chance he rolled scum again.

Risen: I've spent a ton of time in his past games. The two biggest things he did when he was scum that he didn't do when he was town were: stressing repeatedly that it's too early to have reads, and being forthcoming/defending his 'town reads.' So far this game he has hit both of those marks. He defended Mattchew, and concluded that Dropbear being town is likely. He has said twice that it's too early to post reads.

I feel better about lynching Miltonkram today, and as such:

##vote: Miltonkram


This game his [austin's] effort matches, and I feel he has made some good points on Risen. Him matching his town meta is only one piece of my view on him, and it's largely unnecessary. His actions thus far seem pretty pro-town to me.


On July 13 2012 11:33 Keirathi wrote:
On July 13 2012 10:58 s0Lstice wrote:
what do you think of Miltonkram, Marv?


As an aside: your case against Risen feels stronger than your case against Milton anyways. I'm kind of suprised you voted the way you did.


Mentioned elsewhere in my filter, but that was my gut reaction to s0lstice's post as well. What do you think?


Yeah I noticed it.

I'd like him to explain himself though (I don't know if he did), since I don't think it's something "scummy" in itself but rather could be more of a misunderstanding.
I didn't really pay much attention to it since the rest of his posts make me think he's town (I've already said why I think).



"How many scum are there? Four?"

"There are PMs this game right guys? PM me!"

"is there an SK this game?"

... making me think you're scum here man


To be honest, when I'm scum I'm pretty paranoid about asking those kind of questions and shit, since I always get the feeling people might accuse me exactly of that.

I think it tells on Liar Game, each time there was no night kill my "Oh my! There is no night kill!" posts seemed forced and made me extremely paranoid >_>

Anyways S&B, know that I'm not that happy with your play this day, and I think you could easily be scum. But *sigh* there are things that make me think you could post as town and don't make me confident too much in your lynch.
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
July 13 2012 13:56 GMT
#371
On July 12 2012 13:48 NoSmurfHere wrote:

Show nested quote +

What numbers of mafs are there potentially? iirc 2 or 3 are only possible mafia counts in C9++ and 3 is more likely. Is it the same here?


Yes.

[/QUOTE]

On July 12 2012 04:17 NoSmurfHere wrote:

Show nested quote +
On July 12 2012 04:09 austinmcc wrote:
Can we know what system you're using to roll the setup?


It's loosely based on this:

Click for C9++ Wiki page

However many of the roll chances have been modified to reflect the strength of town usage of power roles on TL being greater than on mafiascum. I.E, the chances for vigilante and mason in particular are drastically reduced while the chance for roleblocker is increased.

Also the mafia determiner has been changed to include framers and reduces the possibility of a 2 man scumteam (though that is still possible)

At some point if I am convinced that my determiner is balanced I will release it. However I've been tweaking it game to game and examining all the setups that it generates. Luckily I haven't had to throw one out yet so chances are strong that almost any version of the randomizer I've used is reasonably balanced. I just want to find the most balanced one for use on TL.



Why don't you read the thread, gonzaw? I even quoted these earlier posts IN-GAME.

???
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
July 13 2012 14:00 GMT
#372
Yeah I read that, but since he changed the setup a little bit I don't know how much the chances of there being a SK are (or if there is one 100% or something).

Meh I guessed I derped with that question.

Hmm, now that I think about it the more flips there are we can determine how many scum there are.
Like, each time a cop flips we add a "C" (or "CC", etc), if a VT flips we add "T", etc. In the end we can know (based on all the Ts,Cs, Bs and shit that flipped or are claimed) exactly how many scum/SKs are and how many of them are.

I'll try to keep tabs personally.
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
July 13 2012 14:03 GMT
#373
As far as I can tell, the kinda "average" setup is something along the lines of 3 mafia, 1 SK, 3 blues. That's what both Emergency and Movie had.
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
July 13 2012 14:05 GMT
#374
On July 13 2012 23:00 gonzaw wrote:
the more flips there are we can determine how many scum there are



.........

man seriously. what are you doing.






and I know what you were trying to say ("we can reverse engineer wbg's setup randomizer or something and know how many scum there are") but since we don't know the setup randomizer that's also totally pointless.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
July 13 2012 14:06 GMT
#375
On July 13 2012 23:03 marvellosity wrote:
As far as I can tell, the kinda "average" setup is something along the lines of 3 mafia, 1 SK, 3 blues. That's what both Emergency and Movie had.


wof had 3 mafia, no sk (i think) and 2 blues.

let's stop trying to reverse engineer the setup, at least until we have more info.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1833 Posts
July 13 2012 14:38 GMT
#376
quick ninja post while I should be working, regarding my thing with Risen

there are two conflicting ideas that I had some difficulty assignment weight to

-Risen is genuinely trying to improve his town play, and will deviate from his meta as a result
-Risen is matching a few key things in his scum meta

His desire to change his playstyle did seem genuine, especially in the post-game of SSB. I ended up assigning more weight to the second idea though because I believe it is very difficult to escape one's meta, as it is something that largely stems from the subconscious. However, the difficulty involved in ending up where I did was enough to make me want to pursue Milton primarily.
ATOBTTR
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
July 13 2012 15:09 GMT
#377
On July 13 2012 23:00 gonzaw wrote:
Yeah I read that, but since he changed the setup a little bit I don't know how much the chances of there being a SK are (or if there is one 100% or something).

Meh I guessed I derped with that question.

Hmm, now that I think about it the more flips there are we can determine how many scum there are.
Like, each time a cop flips we add a "C" (or "CC", etc), if a VT flips we add "T", etc. In the end we can know (based on all the Ts,Cs, Bs and shit that flipped or are claimed) exactly how many scum/SKs are and how many of them are.

I'll try to keep tabs personally.

We can't full-on do this, one reason I was asking WBG before game started. I've tried in his last few minis, and his adjustments mean that you can't follow the normal C9++ setup.

Not gonna post something big here, someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I haven't seen 1-shot jailers/cops in his minis and I haven't seen multi-shot vigs. That means that the entire town side is different in his setup from C9++. The fact that he's said he adjusted some %s AND we're seeing a different makeup of roles means that we can't really game things like this.
Fe fi fo fum.
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
July 13 2012 15:31 GMT
#378
On July 13 2012 23:05 strongandbig wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 13 2012 23:00 gonzaw wrote:
the more flips there are we can determine how many scum there are



.........

man seriously. what are you doing.






and I know what you were trying to say ("we can reverse engineer wbg's setup randomizer or something and know how many scum there are") but since we don't know the setup randomizer that's also totally pointless.


WBG said this setup follows C9++ but the only thing that changed was the chance of the roles and he added a Framer (and changed Medics->JK and IC->Miller).
There's no need to shit things up I'll just do it on my own (other people could do it on their own) and if I find something interesting I'll state it (for instance I checked the C9++ wiki and apparently there is a SK only when there is an odd amount of VTs, I guess it may be similar here).
It may help in a LYLO massclaim for instance.

Also, I think WBG said he was posting his "determiner" once its balanced.
WBG: WIll you post the "randomizer" you used to determine the setup?


Also apparently no Miller nor Masons claimed, so we don't have any of those
Therefore I'll consider any Miller or Mason claim from now on as confirmed scum (well...it doesn't seem likely scum would fake-claim Mason together but whatever).
So Cops....check away, any Red check you get will be legit (no Miller claimed and you are guaranteed to be sane).


S&B, what do you think of Dropbear and Risen?
Mattchew
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States5684 Posts
July 13 2012 15:35 GMT
#379
On July 13 2012 16:52 Keirathi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 13 2012 16:46 DropBear wrote:
I want to firmly stand by Keirathi, he is one of my strongest town reads right now.


Err, what?

How do you have a town read on me when literally everyone else has a scum read?

SO TOWNIE IT HURTS

still reading
There is always tomorrow nshs.seal.
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
July 13 2012 15:55 GMT
#380
On July 14 2012 00:31 gonzaw wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 13 2012 23:05 strongandbig wrote:
On July 13 2012 23:00 gonzaw wrote:
the more flips there are we can determine how many scum there are



.........

man seriously. what are you doing.






and I know what you were trying to say ("we can reverse engineer wbg's setup randomizer or something and know how many scum there are") but since we don't know the setup randomizer that's also totally pointless.


WBG said this setup follows C9++ but the only thing that changed was the chance of the roles and he added a Framer (and changed Medics->JK and IC->Miller).
There's no need to shit things up I'll just do it on my own (other people could do it on their own) and if I find something interesting I'll state it (for instance I checked the C9++ wiki and apparently there is a SK only when there is an odd amount of VTs, I guess it may be similar here).
It may help in a LYLO massclaim for instance.

Also, I think WBG said he was posting his "determiner" once its balanced.
WBG: WIll you post the "randomizer" you used to determine the setup?


Also apparently no Miller nor Masons claimed, so we don't have any of those
Therefore I'll consider any Miller or Mason claim from now on as confirmed scum (well...it doesn't seem likely scum would fake-claim Mason together but whatever).
So Cops....check away, any Red check you get will be legit (no Miller claimed and you are guaranteed to be sane).


S&B, what do you think of Dropbear and Risen?


Dude just stop - WBG will not post the randomizer, he's said, so as to preserve its integrity.

There is a 50% chance of there being an SK, it doesn't matter how many VTs there are.

PEOPLE, WILL YOU PLEASE STOP TRYING TO GAIN INFORMATION FROM THE MAFIASCUM C9++ SETUP. THIS SETUP IS DIFFERENT AND WE DON'T KNOW WHAT HAS BEEN CHANGED. WE CANNOT GAIN ANY USEFUL INFORMATION FROM THE MAFIASCUM C9++ SETUP!

As for your question I'm at work still so no deep thoughts yet - I'm inclined to give Risen the benefit of the doubt for a few days at least, since he has a good motivation to try to change his town play. Nothing on dropbear right now I'll try and reread his filter later.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
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