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On July 19 2012 06:40 DropBear wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2012 06:33 Risen wrote:On July 19 2012 06:29 DropBear wrote:
I think we should lynch Risen.
Ok so two things are important. If Milton is telling the truth about the roleblocking and if they are mafia aligned AND if Risen is telling the truth and is sane.
A - Both are lying and are the remaining scum. Lynching Risen gets scum.
B - Milton tells the truth, Risen lies and is scum. Lynching Risen gets scum.
C - Both are telling the truth. Risen won't get another check at all. Mafia will either shoot or block him for the rest of the game. If Mafia decide just to block him and leave him alive, noone EVER gets confirmed. Then it makes Risen look bad and could lead to a shitstorm of mislynching later down the line. Lynching Risen now confirms strongandbig and solstice, tomorrow we lynch through one of the other remaining players.
D - Milton lies, Risen tells truth. Risen will almost definitely get shot if there is no mafia roleblocker, so we are going to lose him anyway as there are no medics and evidence so far suggests that there is no jailkeeper. He will almost definitely die. Lynching Risen confirms solstice and strongandbig, tomorrow we lynch through one of the other remaining players.
Based on the permutations, I think we should lynch Risen.
If there are holes in my logic please point them out!
##Vote Risen I like how this ignores every other player in the game rofl. Dropbear is Keir's partner? Dude there is no way of confirming either claim beyond a flip. I can see absolutely no reason why you have claimed so early, or for your breadcrumb. You were under suspicion from several people and were unlikely to be shot by mafia. Plus you say you had no scum hits so you had no real important information to give by claiming. I have no idea whether I believe you or not and this is as far as I can tell the only way, given the added complication of Milton's claim.
That doesn't explain why you ignore completely all other people in this game. Your play of lynching me then shooting another townie tonight leaves enough confusion that a mislynch on a townie tomorrow is a very real possibility.
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Look at this game as if drop/keir are the scum team. Tell me that doesn't fit. I'm on my iPad I'm going to get on my computer shortly and draw up a case showing scum team as tali/keir/drop.
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On July 19 2012 06:42 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2012 06:40 DropBear wrote:On July 19 2012 06:33 Risen wrote:On July 19 2012 06:29 DropBear wrote:
I think we should lynch Risen.
Ok so two things are important. If Milton is telling the truth about the roleblocking and if they are mafia aligned AND if Risen is telling the truth and is sane.
A - Both are lying and are the remaining scum. Lynching Risen gets scum.
B - Milton tells the truth, Risen lies and is scum. Lynching Risen gets scum.
C - Both are telling the truth. Risen won't get another check at all. Mafia will either shoot or block him for the rest of the game. If Mafia decide just to block him and leave him alive, noone EVER gets confirmed. Then it makes Risen look bad and could lead to a shitstorm of mislynching later down the line. Lynching Risen now confirms strongandbig and solstice, tomorrow we lynch through one of the other remaining players.
D - Milton lies, Risen tells truth. Risen will almost definitely get shot if there is no mafia roleblocker, so we are going to lose him anyway as there are no medics and evidence so far suggests that there is no jailkeeper. He will almost definitely die. Lynching Risen confirms solstice and strongandbig, tomorrow we lynch through one of the other remaining players.
Based on the permutations, I think we should lynch Risen.
If there are holes in my logic please point them out!
##Vote Risen I like how this ignores every other player in the game rofl. Dropbear is Keir's partner? Dude there is no way of confirming either claim beyond a flip. I can see absolutely no reason why you have claimed so early, or for your breadcrumb. You were under suspicion from several people and were unlikely to be shot by mafia. Plus you say you had no scum hits so you had no real important information to give by claiming. I have no idea whether I believe you or not and this is as far as I can tell the only way, given the added complication of Milton's claim. That doesn't explain why you ignore completely all other people in this game. Your play of lynching me then shooting another townie tonight leaves enough confusion that a mislynch on a townie tomorrow is a very real possibility.
Thinking about this and Matt/gonzaw are the two lynch candidates tomorrow if you lynch me here and then shoot away from those two. Gonzaw will probably then get lynched and then what?
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On July 19 2012 07:29 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2012 07:27 s0Lstice wrote:
@mattchew - from your standpoint, yes. risen is all over keir, s&b seems to be suspicious of risen, dropbear wants to kill risen, gonzaw wants to kill you. the only person who is firmly in your camp at this time seems to be sciberbia.
aside from all that, we've been talking about the set-up, NK stuff, the other mason etc....and you don't seem to care that we aren't talking about gonzaw
your push on gonzaw feels very, very different from your push on Talis so far.
So, why you not voting gonzaw
If gonzaw is lynched today and flips scum I'm going to be like a rabid dog tunneling you. I really think keir is the scum here, though. Why don't you think keir is scum? Have to plug my computer in still and I'm procrastinating on my case
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If final two scum are outside drop/keir/matt/gonzaw I'm going to freak out. Maybe pull ablazinghand rofl
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So his defense of tali gives him town points in your eyes? Wut... It was NOT clear tali would be lynched until strongandbig sealed it late. Why are you missing that? Scum trying to clear his buddy? (purely rhetorical, at this point someone has to be a townie defending keir)
want to know why I'm so sure of keir and now drop being scum? they are claiming they want to confirm townies from my lynch, but to me that just means they don't want to be forced to night kill me. I'm a COP. I'm checking one of them tonight. They HAVE to kill me.
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On July 19 2012 08:57 sciberbia wrote:
@keirathi: perhaps. I would like to hear risen explain it
Nope keir nailed it. I just mixed up bus and wagon when using it. I wanted to see who would jump on the easy case, add to this keir/drop's insistence on lynching me so they don't have to deal with me tonight? Boom. Done deal.
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I'm fairly certain I answered. With scum gonzaw matt is the only link I see. I think he's playing to his #1 townie meta if gonzaw is scum. Therefore, scum gonzaw = scum matt.
And what wasn't answered there keir?
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Oh, his "why would you be so obvious" thing. I was gone all day 2 pretty much and didn't have any reads of my own. I needed to breadcrumb a town check for strongandbig in my mind at the time. Afterwards I saw how blatantly obvious my crumb was, so I left my strongest scum read in s0L in a tough spot. Turns out I lived and s0L came back terran. Then we have all the stuff happening today.
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Matt if you're town you better get in here and lead this show, because no one will listen to me. No one ever listens to me because my plans rely on logic.
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Yes, but with notes. Keir isn't the only one who jumped on, but s0L is confirmed town to me. Gonzaw isn't very scummy to me no, but higher than milton/scrib/matt. keir/drop team is my strongest read. Keir is higher on my scummy list than drop.
I've been scum with matt before and so I'm probably (read as: I am) being biased because he's so hard to read.
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I'll lynch gonzaw if you promise me to lynch keir if he flips town and matt if he's red. (I'm dying tonight, no questions asked. Scum absolutely can't afford me living)
Matt you should be ok with this since it's 1 for 1 and you get all tomorrow to make a case on who to lynch after you're dead.
As it stands, though, my vote is staying on keir because he's in the lead to get lynched and he's my read. If it comes down to one vote I'll vote gonzaw, not otherwise.
If I'm alive tomorrow I'll report the results of my check and then we go from there (likely a risen lynch but then we have another confirmed terran or red check)
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On July 19 2012 10:02 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2012 09:57 Risen wrote:
I'll lynch gonzaw if you promise me to lynch keir if he flips town and matt if he's red. (I'm dying tonight, no questions asked. Scum absolutely can't afford me living)
Matt you should be ok with this since it's 1 for 1 and you get all tomorrow to make a case on who to lynch after you're dead.
As it stands, though, my vote is staying on keir because he's in the lead to get lynched and he's my read. If it comes down to one vote I'll vote gonzaw, not otherwise.
If I'm alive tomorrow I'll report the results of my check and then we go from there (likely a risen lynch but then we have another confirmed terran or red check) Why can't I be scum with gonzaw? If you really think I'm scum, then I'm not sure why the gonzaw flip would matter. I've neither pressured gonzaw nor defended him to any extent.
Well if you manage to dodge a lynch I'm checking you tonight and after matt is lynched I think town will be able to get its act together and lynch you.
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4000!
To explain further: your connection to a scum gonzaw is weaker imo than matt's
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Also scib I completely understand your thoughts. Completely logical. All I ask is that if you decide to lynch gonzaw and he flips scum to lynch matt tomorrow
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On July 19 2012 10:10 Keirathi wrote:
This is what I don't like about you claiming early before you had to if you really are cop.
You've given scum ammunition. You've laid out your plans for what you want to do.
What if the mafia has a framer? You just told them who you were going to check.
What if mafia has a roleblocker? They have no reason to ever kill you if they can just relegate you to "extremely suspicious VT" for the rest of the game until you die. If they can keep you alive until the LYLO day, then they've basically won anyways.
Those are real possibilities and bummer if that's how it plays out. Town needs to play with the information they have, though, not pure speculation from you. Please kill keir, he's such a fluff...
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On July 19 2012 10:13 Miltonkram wrote:
I think it's possible that Risen and austinmcc engineered a fakeclaim play to try and draw out scum. This would allow the timing of Risen's cop claim to make sense.
@ Risen
This possibility popped into my head and I just need to get an answer. Risen are you fakeclaiming cop and are you the mason? At this point, if you are the mason I'd just like you to claim since this cop claim has taken up so much of the discussion today.
Lol, I want to fake claim mason so bad just to see what happens when I'm lynched and flip cop after the real mason reveals himself. You guys would freak out post game, and I might catch a ban for throwing.
But no, just a cop rofl
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On July 19 2012 10:22 Keirathi wrote:
So, another question for Risen:
What will you do moving forward if I am lynched today and I don't flip scum? I'm not even asking you to believe that I'm not scum, just from a purely hypothetical context, I would like you to explain what your next course of action would be.
You were so convinced Day 1 that Vivax was scum, and you were wrong and then disappeared and "grieved" over how wrong you were. Will it be the same?
I'll check gonzaw tonight and if I'm alive move on from there. Scum check = push him, get myself lynched, then pray for gon/matt lynch. If town check I freak out, break down into gibberish and eat my hat.
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Ebwop: also along with eating my hat I probably get lynched.
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On July 19 2012 10:29 Miltonkram wrote:
@ Risen
Ok, thanks for the quick answer.
I reread Mattchew's case against gonzaw. I think he's onto something. I'd advise everyone to look at it. My reads have shifted like crazy over the course of the day. For now I'm going with Keirathi and Risen both town and gonzaw scum. If I find any new evidence to add while reading gonzaw's filter (ugh) I'll post it.
Noooooo it's workingggggg, his suicide pact and lynch the cop play have convinced people not to vote for him. Howwwwwwww
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EPT
