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Emergency Mini Mafia! - Page 47

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Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12971 Posts
June 15 2012 23:29 GMT
#921
Initial thoughts, Snarfs? They'd be helpful.
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
June 15 2012 23:30 GMT
#922
shit, I was mid-travel and missed the deadline, sorry guys.
Computer says mafia
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12971 Posts
June 16 2012 09:39 GMT
#923
Alright, here's what we're going to do. Until the night submit deadline at 21:00 GMT (+00:00), I want to see nothing but questions in this thread. No reads, no suspects, nothing. You will prepare a case on at least one player that you find most suspicious and post it at exactly 21:00 GMT (+00:00) so that we know players aren't influenced by one another. This will force Mafia to make a case too and they don't know who looks townie to who as well as we do. This is our best shot. We've gotten a free Mafia, we finally have information to go off on, so we have to be able to finish it from here. Let's do this.
MrZentor
Profile Joined December 2010
United States1648 Posts
June 16 2012 15:26 GMT
#924
Artanis, that's a terrible idea.
Falling’s just like flying, except there’s a more permanent destination.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12971 Posts
June 16 2012 15:28 GMT
#925
Can you tell me why? I'd rather not give the mafia any leads for their shot, and I can't imagine the making a case part being a bad idea.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12971 Posts
June 16 2012 17:48 GMT
#926
Navillus, Shraft, Snarfs, Ghost, do you agree with my idea?
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12971 Posts
June 16 2012 21:00 GMT
#927
I went through everyone's filter again and made notes (except Shraft, didn't get to him yet), and the person that jumps out as the most suspicious to me is Navillus. These are my notes as I read through his history:
-Shortest post history
-Comments on furer's mislynch thing
-Null read on VE, would have stronger read on other people
-Reads furer as slightly town
-Doesn't see the Ghost case
-FOS's MrZentor
-Proceeds to vote on Hyaach
-Weird reason for why he didn't vote on MrZentor
-Continues discussing off topic with Pandain
-Says he prefers to say too much (then why the short history?)
-Thinks Pandain's claim is dumb but doesn't see it as scum
-Keeps asking for other people to stop lurking, yet lurks himself quite a bit
-Continues to hammer on lurkers while lurking himself
-Believes BH's claim, votes Furer for a weak reason (inactivity), not dangerous for mafia as it never gained any traction
-Apologetic nature of posts (I'm on my phone, I'm busy, etc)
-Says he doesn't ignore BH's meta then basically does
-Votes Hyaach
-Suddenly doesn't think inactivity is a reason anymore
I don't think his disappearing from the game really has anything to do with alignment

-Says he reads Katina as town
-Wants to kill BH because he's an SK and a good player, ignores logic against it
-Goes after MrZentor when the zelblade lynch is basically locked in
-Says he still has to look after me, yet never does before the deadline, feels like a Mafia that already knows they've won so gets sloppy

First he defends Furer, then later in the game he calls his inactivity a reason for his lynch, then even later he doesn't think it's a reason to lynch anyone anymore. My suspicion is that this is because he thought furer would get modkilled and wanted to gain some town cred, but then when a vet like Palmar replaced him he suddenly didn't want to put any more heat on him.

His exchanges with MrZentor have been interesting too. He starts out by giving him an FoS, then votes Hyaach. He also goes in against the Pandain lynch which was gaining a lot of traction, which doesn't really mean much as Mafia wants there to be some resistance to a lynch as otherwise people will start to think it's going too easily.

Finally, he keeps commenting about lurkers yet he is the lurkiest player left. His posting history is only two pages long, and it really doesn't look good. Right now I want to see Navillus lynched the most out of all players, at least until I've examined Shraft.
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
June 16 2012 21:19 GMT
#928
I think now is probably the best time for me to roleclaim. I'm the detective.

Night 1, checked Hyaach, came back innocent.
Night 2, checked Artanis[xp], came back innocent.
Night 3, checked Palmar, came back guilty.
Night 4, checked MrZentor, waiting for results.

I chose to check MrZentor because he typically plays scummy, regardless of his alignment. He's a huge liability here at lylo/mylo/whateveritscalled.

I would consider Artanis to be considered confirmed town at this point. With three scum total in the game, I think that both a godfather and a framer are unlikely, so I trust that result. Not only that, he's been playing consistently townie through the entire game.

Shraft also strikes me as rather townie, but a lot of the credit I give him is due to his pushing of the BH and Zelblade lynches. He could be a very crafty scum, but I kind of doubt it.

MrZentor plays scummy no matter what. I'm trusting whatever result I get tonight, and will act accordingly. Honestly, neither result would surprise me.

Navillus was the only one who dared to speak out against the Zelblade lynch. This makes me highly suspicious of him. When scum are put into a situation like that, typically they will split up their actions, so they don't act in a group. I suspect that he drew the short straw, and had to oppose the Zelblade lynch. Honestly, I don't know why they did this considering Zelblade was town. Backup plan? It's very strange, all things considering. Nav is where I'm going to spend most of my analysis time in the coming days, assuming I make it that far.

Snarfs hasn't given me a lot to go on, and I'll have to spend some time carefully reading his filter as well. He seems well thought out in his posts, he's on the less scummy side of null, but he's next up for analysis should MrZentor come back green.

tl;dr: Gun pointed at my head, and given one bullet, I'd shoot Navillus.
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
June 16 2012 21:24 GMT
#929
BTW, my belief that the scum can't screw up my DT checks is based on my scum RB theory.
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12971 Posts
June 16 2012 21:25 GMT
#930
That's an interesting claim. I had you pegged as a null, but it makes sense now that you'd try to explain my roleblock claim as Town. What I wonder though is why you chose these people to check. Given your posting history it seems more logical to check BH Night 1 and in your posting history I never saw you defend Hyaach that actively. Why?
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12971 Posts
June 16 2012 21:25 GMT
#931
Also, MrZentor is my biggest town read right now.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12971 Posts
June 16 2012 21:44 GMT
#932
Okay, since I expect it's highly likely that I'll die today, I'm going to mention that my second biggest suspect is Ghost. This because of soft attacks on Furerkip while voting on someone else, attacking a lot of different people, causing chaos and now with this DT claim that doesn't line up with whom he suspected those days. The only part of it that truly makes sense is that he'd defend me based on his expected night actions, but that would make sense from a scum perspective too. It feels like he's making a play to go big or go home. Here's my notes on everyone else I made during the reading of the filters since I have the feeling everyone's getting a bit lazy. Should provide a quick overview of what everyone's said this game.
+ Show Spoiler +
Ghost_403
-Buys VE's claim on the ground of putting himself under a lot of scrutiny
-Has some self doubt
-Soft attacks Furerkips
-Posts case on BH
-Happier to lynch MrZentor
-Comes back from his attack on Furer
-Attacks MrZentor, votes him
-Attacks Zelblade
-Attacks BH
-Votes BH
-Keeps going after BH
-No longer thinks MrZentor is mafia but rather bad townie
-Hesitant to comment on Snarfs at first, then says he thinks it's null, prefers Zelblade
-Doesn't want to lynch Zelblade in favor of Blazinghand
-Doesn't want to discuss Zelblade with Blazinghand
-Clears my name based on night actions
-Votes Zelblade

MrZentor
-Null read/slightly pro town on VE
-Furer being a bit rash
-Calls out Ghost for legit reasons (Ghost claimed to misread VE always yet comes in with a read)
-Soft accuses Navillus for voting on someone nobody has accused
-Null read on Blazinghand
-Minor contradiction on saying that he has no idea despite having said he has a slightly pro town read on VE
-Suspects Ghost for suspecting Furer
-Switches to Navillus after a "super scummy post"
-Thinks Pandain might be green because of forced "accidental claim"
-Thinks he might be scum because of lying about accidentally claiming
-Votes Pandain
-Argues a lot with Blazinghand about confirming vigis
-Says he thinks neither BH nor Hyaach are scum
-Comes back from that and gives an explanation why he thinks Hyaach is scum based on actions
-Willing to vote Furer if a roleblocker comes up
-Thinks Snarfs is probably innocent
-Votes Zelblade

Snarfs
-Thinks Furer talks a lot and will be in trouble if he's scum
-Mentions it's dangerous to write him off as a newbie
-Asks questions at the start
-Asks for old meta of other players, never gets back to this
-Dissapointed by BH, votes on him
-Calls out Navillus
-Mild suspicion on MrZentor
-Doesn't want to focus on setup speculation
-Doesn't want to vote Pandain
-Gives a good reason to unvote Blazinghand
-Votes Hyaach
-Thinks BH's claim of being vigi is legit
-Recommends against connections until red flips
-Seems eager to see Furer flip
-Still thinks BH is probably vigi because of WIFOM
-Wants to lynch furerkip/Palmar (soft attack)
-Makes minor case on Katina
-Dismisses Shraft's case on Navillus
-Joins in on the case against Zelblade
-Asks people to give their thoughts on Zelblade
-Puts some pressure on Palmar to actually provide thoughts
-Says he'll give the thread a reread, hasn't come back since yet

Shraft
-Calls out furerkip for his interpretation of VE's post
-Keeps an analytical style of posting
-Analyses furerkip as someone that probably played a lot on Epicmafia
-Tries his best to understand Hyaach's posts
-Makes a case on Navillus, no vote though
-Thinks the case on MrZentor BH posted is sound
-Suspects MrZ for BH's case but doesn't specify exactly what. Says
He (MrZ) openly states that he has a hard time reading BH, while ghost says something and provides some reasoning on why it could be true, just to discredit himself in the next sentence.
which is more something against Ghost than MrZentor
-Happy with Pandain lynch
-Not happy with a Navillus lynch anymore
-Gut feeling that one of the mafia is lurking, kind of in contrast with his analytical approach
-Makes a case against Zelblade
-Thinks Zelblade and Hyaach are most suspicious
-After no one died, wants to lynch zelblade hyaach or furerkip
-Thinks furerkip probably is townie
-Unaware that there are no medics in the role list
-Believes BH's claim
-Changes opinion on BH after a post from Ghost
-Has a hard time deciding between Hyaach and BH
-Wants Town RB to claim
-Draws a bunch of situations with BH/Hyaach, doesn't consider the SK option.
-Goes with his gut after pointing out a few rational reasons why BH might be Mafia
-Wants RBer to claim
-Doesn't want to attach too much meaning to the Furerkip replacement
-Goes against his read by voting BH based on game mechanics
-Thinks it's likely MrZentor is mafia
-Doesn't think the Snarfs case was strong
-Unvotes BH when he claims SK (This I view as very unlikely to be mafia), considers both Navillus and zelblade
-Gives good reasons why he changed back to Navillus being suspicious
-Suspicious on Zelblade

I'd say don't blindly follow what I said here even if I flip today and flip green, but I would put greater stock in what Shraft and MrZentor say over Navillus or Ghost. I'd say my main doubt is whether Snarfs is mafia or not, but I find the Ghost case a bit stronger. Snarfs has some definite flaws too though and will need to answer for them. Be active guys. We can still win this if we try hard.
Navillus
Profile Joined February 2011
United States1188 Posts
June 16 2012 21:48 GMT
#933
I would kill MrZ for his play on the last three lynches. On the Hyaach, BH, and Zblade lynches he happily went along with each bandwagon without giving any contributions on why any of them actually should be lynched or really commenting on anything. This looks like scum that just wants to get these lynches as quietly as he can without having to actually comment on anything, this look is just increased when he says that making cases is a terrible idea with 1 short line, no explanation, and no attempt to contribute.

These are the two closest things to a case or argument he makes on BH
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 10 2012 22:13 MrZentor wrote:
If BH's roleblocker shows up between night and day, we should kill Furerkip.

But if BH's roleblocker doesn't show up, we should kill him.

Either way we'll probably get a scum.


On June 11 2012 14:07 MrZentor wrote:
Oh, I'm not your roleblocker.

Sorry scum.

##vote: blazinghand



I would post more showing how unwilling he is to comment on anything but you can look at his filter, it's literally a string of one liners that are absolutely useless, some of them even just one word. Then on Zblade he got even lazier with


On June 16 2012 00:03 MrZentor wrote:
I'm not going to be redundant.

The reasons for Zelblade's guilt have been thoroughly exhausted.

##Vote : Zelblade

Oh, and I'd be delighted to destroy any case anybody tries to make against me.


being his only post on that lynch, all he says is that there are reasons so he doesn't have to make a case or make reads. MrZ is just trying to avoid any attention and he's been getting away with that for too long, and yes I have been lurking too obviously I'm not trying to deny that but when I have posted they haven't consisted of literally single lines that give no information and are impossible to read. Don't make the mistake people did in mtg of lynching people just because you have something to go off of for them and ignoring the lurking scum team.

Also I just read ghosts dt claim and seriously I'm sorry but this is just an unbelievable suspicious claim, he claims dt but coincidentally 2 of his checks are useless to us and one of them is artanis being town which anyone that's read the thread could have told you (which is to say, why did you waste a check on him??) and even worse HE'S CLAIMING RIGHT AFTER WE WERE AT MYLO AND HE HAD A CONFIRMED SCUM. Sorry about all caps but seriously if it hadn't been for the modkill, which we absolutely could not have relied on given that he wasn't modkilled once before and could have jumped in at the lynch, we WOULD have lost right there and he's trying to say that he could have prevented that but decided that waiting ONE more night would be the difference??? Actually I would like to lynch MrZ or Ghost.
"TL gives excellent advice 99% of the time. The problem is no one listens to it." -Plexa
Shraft
Profile Joined October 2010
Sweden701 Posts
June 16 2012 21:54 GMT
#934
Hm. Interesting claim. How come you didn't claim during the previous day? Were you counting on Palmar getting modkilled?
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12971 Posts
June 16 2012 21:55 GMT
#935
MrZentor is town. I'm fairly sure. Though he bandwagons, he changes votes a lot depending on what happens in the thread. He gives me a very Town vibe despite the low content. We're not here to lynch anti town. We have to lynch scum. I don't think MrZentor is scum.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12971 Posts
June 16 2012 21:56 GMT
#936
Also is it me or does this Navillus/Ghost exchange look extremely scripted in a way to distance themselves from one another?
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12971 Posts
June 16 2012 22:00 GMT
#937
Also, in case I die (which I very much expect) someone should check the meta of Snarfs, Navillus and Ghost and see if it compares to their mafia/town play, and in what way. Meta is important but I didn't have time.
HiroPro
Profile Joined March 2012
United States2624 Posts
June 16 2012 22:01 GMT
#938
Day 5

[image loading]


Shraft, the Vanilla Townie, was consumed by flames.

There are 48 hours left till the lynch. With 5 players alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12971 Posts
June 16 2012 22:01 GMT
#939
Well I'll be damned.
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
June 16 2012 22:02 GMT
#940
MrZentor came back innocent.
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
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