EPTPick Your Poison Mafia
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Radfield
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During the secret ballot poison, is there a vote count at the end of the day, or just a result? | ||
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Roleblocker is the pick we need to send in for mafia. The reason for this is the role we absolutely do not want a combination of framer/gf + cop/tracker. That gives us the least possible advantage in this game. By us publicly sending in the roleblocker, it basically forces mafia to give us 2 of vigilante/medic/innocent child. If they decide to give us either cop or tracker that is even better, as we will KNOW that they only have a roleblocker and cannot throw off our investigations. Roleblocker vs 2 of vigilante/medic/innocent child is a fantastic place to be. If they happen to give us tracker or cop that is even better. It is far far better than any other scenario. Role and Alignment being hidden we want to save until lylo, as at that point it doesn't hurt us. Likewise when only 1 mafia is left. Voting being Secret we want to save until we have an obvious lynch. Lynch locks once majority hits does not hurt us at all, and is our freebee. Mayoral election is our second freebee. Day cycle shortened to 24 hours we'll use in the lategame, as discussion is slow then anyways. I'm out of time, more later. | ||
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Radfield
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Consider this though, if we KNOW we have sent in roleblocker(ie everyone sends that in) then we KNOW we can trust every single check via tracker or cop. That is incredibly important. Given that, mafia will have to give us some combination of the other three roles, which is an absolutely fantastic setup for town. (Innocent child cannot be roleblocked, medic never needs to claim, vig never needs to claim until second shot when he cant be roleblocked anymore). Please send in roleblocker. | ||
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Radfield
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Use first: Majority+1, secret vote, secret ballot Use in the mid game: Mayoral election, lynch lock Use at LYLO or late game: No flip, 24 hour lynch I agree with this, though I think we should save the secret ballot until we have an obvious lynch target. No need to use it up in the early game. I vote for majority +1 or giving mafia and extra secret vote for today. The earlier we give them their extra secret vote, the less powerful it is, so we should probably go with that one. I'm still skim-reading and post-skipping, but I should have time to actually read the thread tonight  | ||
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Radfield
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On May 30 2012 21:41 Sbrubbles wrote: Also, if we force them to give us one roleblockable role and one information role, after we tally our votes, one of our PRs will be 100% sure of his accuracy. No, if we don't all decide on roleblocker, and KNOW that we have given them roleblocker, mafia just give us the cop and the tracker, and we can't trust either role because we don't know if there is a gf or framer. Which essentially means that we get no power roles, or worse, we get roles we can't trust. We NEED to know that they got roleblocker, or else all our checks are suspect, and mafia can talk themselves out of any red check. In every single scenario it is worth giving them roleblocker, and KNOWING that we have given them roleblocker. | ||
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Radfield
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On May 30 2012 21:51 Zephirdd wrote: IMO secret ballot shouldn't be used. Too much confusion if I understood it right. Also, scratch the last encrypted code. + Show Spoiler [what I picked] + ?b64xF1yM2Qy++9qlohfAHP+g6g4nA5rLPIXvQn02yFKhlP1oswI+B5HmNw3lsK+ KGjOakHLoluNDfPdwJr/5SCNaPlvWY0KLbBASU3hwAarQWXqXoOpMxJ4iOha1wdA ma7znGXACp71St85QQ94UsZElCjJzs6tgTzXhAn15x0jtcruTYHQMGjgr5PTTkhy w5uy?64b I don't see anyone doing that yet, and I'm sad  please post, encrypted, the role you picked for mafia(try to encrypt a phrase like "I picked *** because YYY" so it's hard to reverse-crack it). After this phase we de-crack our codes and verify the role we made mafia pick.I see no need to encrypt our roles, I honestly don't understand the need for it at all. No townie is going to lie tomorrow about what role he sent in today, and mafia is going to lie regardless of whether they encrypt or not. So why are we encrypting?? | ||
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On May 30 2012 21:56 Zephirdd wrote: So mafia can't be 100% sure of and can't 100% send roles to counterpick ours. For instance, they may end up picking Tracker when we pick Roleblocker, which is great for us. That's what I got from it, at least. Ahh whatever. when we ask everyone tomorrow what they sent in(without encrypting today), all townies are going to tell the truth, and all mafia are going to lie. If we encrypt are roles today, all townies are going to tell the truth, and all mafia are going to lie. Encrypting does nothing. Regardless, It doesn't matter if mafia know they are getting roleblocker, as they still have to give us the roles we want. There is no advantage to mafia knowing they are getting roleblocker. | ||
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On May 30 2012 23:16 prplhz wrote: @Radfield What do you mean "scum are going to lie about their votes anyway"? Mafia do not actually send in any votes for what mafia gets, so they will have to lie about what they sent in. On May 30 2012 23:33 Kurumi wrote: If you fail to see how scummy this is, may Whoever help you That is not remotely scummy. I'm telling you there are certain reasons I can think of that I don't want mafia to know until they have picked our roles. Once they have picked our roles then I will gladly explain in further detail. Please don't be silly this game Kurumi, you have the potential to be an asset to town or mafia when you are a townie. Make it an asset to town. My statement becomes scummy when 1 of 2 things happen: a) I have no explanation for my statement tomorrow or b) I have an unsatisfactory explanation for that statement tomorrow. In either case, there is nothing even possibly scummy about that sentence yet. On May 31 2012 01:38 slOosh wrote: Radfield, I don't see any benefits of discussing why roleblocker is the weakest role after we choose it - your whole point of validating the cop checks etc. takes into account that even if mafia knew that they would receive roleblocker, we would still get good PRs. So mafia don't benefit from the discussion and town does - so why don't you want to talk about it? Again, it has to do with what the mafia are picking for us, which I obviously don't want to talk about until tomorrow. | ||
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On May 31 2012 04:14 Kurumi wrote: Remember that thing that You don't sign up for games when You don't have time? Excuses, excuses. Scum. I have time, but it is limited. I want to spend it filtering. How bout if I fail to do anything constructive then you can come at me for being scummy. I'll tell you what, you form nice coherent arguments you want me to respond to, and I will respond. On May 31 2012 05:11 wherebugsgo wrote: There are reasons I think roleblocker is the strongest role for mafia. For one, it stops claims dead in their tracks. If you have a tracker claim, as scum you don't have to kill the claimer if you have a roleblocker. Scum will never choose vigi or innocent child for us. That's pretty much out of the question. They'll choose between the other 3 roles, and at that point it's completely up to personal preference. re: bold You're missing something extremely important bugs, and I'll be glad to enlighten you once the picks are in(again, related to mafia choosing town roles). re:Italics Are you even reading what you've written? Lets say you are right, and scum will not choose vig or IC. That means we get 2 of medic, tracker, cop..... vs a roleblocker. That is fantastically unbalanced in favor of town. Because we know we're facing a roleblocker, our detectives KNOW that every check is true. The roleblocker is essentially useless except for the tracker, and he's going to claim only once he finds scum. Also consider, a tracker vs roleblocker has a good chance of finding the roleblocker because whomever the roleblocker visits will be notified(unlike a frame). So our tracker has a x2 chance of finding scum compared to the GF. On May 31 2012 05:54 prplhz wrote: That's a pretty generic question. I just think it's a little crazy that scum don't even get to vote, then it's really just going to be up to town and we're going to pick whatever. I also have no idea why Radfield is so much against encrypting our votes. It will do absolutely no harm and it might help us out. I'm only against it because I don't understand how it can help. Explain to me how it helps because right now I don't get it. I'm voting for the +1 secret vote for mafia. I feel like at worst they're going to use it to mislynch a townie who didn't quite get hammered, which isn't really that bad for town since it allows all the townies voting for the mislynch to refocus. In fact you could argue that it's smarter for scum to leave a townie alive who is at L-1, since we'll all think he is scum and lynch(or shoot) him Day 2. In short, +1 vote for mafia is pretty useless right now. | ||
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Radfield
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If our votes say a framer should have been picked, but then a roleblocker gets flipped, we essentially have a listcheck on the framer votes for X amount of scum. I'm happy to encrypt mine if people want me to, but I think it's pretty obvious what I picked.... | ||
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On May 31 2012 08:14 HiroPro wrote: Updated list of what I think the poison order should be: Day 1: #3 Secret Hidden Vote Day 2: #6 Majority +1 Day 3: #4 Mayor Election Day 4: #1 Lynch Lock Day 5: #7 24 Hour Day Cycle Day 6: #5 Hidden Lynch Not Used: Secret Ballot Obviously, the hiding role/alignment of the lynch can be used whenever/if we have lylo. Secret ballot is actually pretty non-scary once we only have 1 mafia left. I would probably rather slot Secret Ballot into Day 5, bump everything else up 1 and take out Majority +1 or 24 hour cycle. Majority +1 is a poor Day 2 slot, and should be used for a day when we have an obvious lynch target. Really though, none of the poisons are very dangerous if we use them appropriately. | ||
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Radfield
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The strongest townies will be dead by Day 3, and we'll likely have pretty strong town reads by Day 2 given that we have an extra 24 hours of discussion right now. Given that, I would probably be in favor of a mayoral lynch Day 2, and the lynch lock on Day 3. | ||
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Radfield
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On May 31 2012 11:25 Zephirdd wrote: errr there is more to say, actually. First, The key is "zephirdd" and when using it to decrypt, the phrase is "I picked Framer for the mafia". Kurumi's reasonings convinced me much more than Radfield's. Also, I don't like that Radfield was initially against registering votes pre-deadline. The Rad I know doesn't just "skim" by what people say. Still, his town meta is "too town to be town", and here is just... normal town. Or rather, near null. That makes him red in my eyes. Discuss. Then you don't know me very well Zephridd I skim read all the time, and I do mean all the time. The strength of my play is that I go back and reread many times, and filter everyone many times. Knowing when you can skim and when you need to pay attention is something every good player utilizes, particularly when time is short. Yesterday I had points I wanted to make, and not enough time to do it in(particularly in the morning, when I didn't even finish my post).I obviously picked roleblocker. Anyways, the reason we publicly wanted roleblocker is that we desperately want a medic in this setup, and mafia knowing they are getting roleblocker dramatically increases the odds of us getting one. Consider that pretty much every single mini game ever has the potential for town to have a medic/jailkeeper/etc, the reason for this being that even the threat of having a protective role means mafia can't just shoot whomever they want, whenever they want. You guys are talking as if mafia having the roleblocker is dangerous because they can roleblock any blue claims, but that makes no sense. If we have no medic, mafia don't need to roleblock, they just shoot claimers in the face. If there is no medic in the setup, then roleblocker is an almost completely useless role for mafia. Think someone is blue? Shoot them in the face. Someone claims? Shoot them in the face. The reason that we have a much better chance of getting a medic by choosing roleblocker is that cop and tracker are far and away the worst roles for town in this setup, especially considering that mafia might get gf/framer. Tracker is especially bad, because of the fact that mafia get to choose which one performs the kill, and will always pick whomever is the most town, making the role almost useless unless the tracker holds his abilities until lategame. By picking roleblocker and mafia knowing it, they will likely shy away from giving us the information roles, and instead give us 2 of Vig/Medic/IC. However even if they give us one of those roles and the tracker, the one role they will probably give us is the medic, as I don't think most people realize how important it is to have a medic in a small setup. Again, having a medic is very important for us, because a medic doesn't even have to make a save and can still turn the tide of a game by forcing mafia to shoot away from the most obvious/strong townies. Picking roleblocker gave us the highest chance of getting that medic. Did players who became power roles KNOW they were going to be power roles before day 1? Or were they given the exact same vanilla PM as all the other players | ||
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Radfield
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On May 31 2012 11:25 Zephirdd wrote: errr there is more to say, actually. First, The key is "zephirdd" and when using it to decrypt, the phrase is "I picked Framer for the mafia". Kurumi's reasonings convinced me much more than Radfield's. Also, I don't like that Radfield was initially against registering votes pre-deadline. The Rad I know doesn't just "skim" by what people say. Still, his town meta is "too town to be town", and here is just... normal town. Or rather, near null. That makes him red in my eyes. Discuss. If this is an actual accusation, as in you're willing to vote for me day 1, you better do a hell of a lot better than that. You're essentially saying that you see me as town, but not super duper town(24 hours into the game), so therefore you see me as scum. If that is your actual argument, and you are willing to follow that through to a lynch, then I don't know what to say to you. There is obviously no rebuttal by me other than just ignoring you and continuing playing. I'd like you to state in detail why you think I am scum. I would also like you to state in detail why you picked framer, and what specifically swayed your opinion. | ||
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Radfield
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However, anyone afraid of the roleblocker wasn't really looking at the roles. Innocent Child: Cannot be roleblocked 1-shot Cop: Basically cannot be roleblocked, since once he claims he no longer has any abilities Medic: Should never claim, and is extremely difficult to roleblock. Even if he is roleblocked, he still serves his purpose of preventing mafia from shooting indiscriminately. Vigilante: Doesn't need to claim until both shots are fired, at which point he can no longer be roleblocked. Tracker: Only role that needs to fear the roleblocker, but fortunately this role is made much stronger by having a roleblocker in the game(since anyone roleblocked is informed). Tracker can find mafia either by tracking someone to a kill, or by tracking someone to a roleblocker. Very good combo for us, and obviously the tracker isn't going to claim until he is sure someone is scum. Not to mention that having a roleblocker means any cops and trackers know they can trust their results, and we know we can trust their results once they die. It's very important that people claim if they are roleblocked, as then our tracker(if we have one) always knows who the roleblocker visited. | ||
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Also, bugs standard scum play is NOT generally ambivalence and coasting. I would say he's one of the most active scum players on the forum. | ||
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On June 01 2012 01:27 Kurumi wrote: No time to respond to me but you have time to defend your buddy it seems? On May 31 2012 07:36 Radfield wrote: I have time, but it is limited. I want to spend it filtering. How bout if I fail to do anything constructive then you can come at me for being scummy. I'll tell you what, you form nice coherent arguments you want me to respond to, and I will respond. On June 01 2012 03:33 wherebugsgo wrote: Let's kill Toad and Kurumi. Kurumi's meta is troll as town and play serious as scum. Obviously that makes him scum this game. Toad is playing too carefully to be town. He has elements of his normal self centered-ness but usually he at least calls people out. Instead he seems to be worried he'll get called out for "not caring" like I was, when if he was town he'd probably not go that far. Agreed, Toad is acting a bit strange, and Kurumi is off the wall sure I am scum 24 hours into the game, simply because he disagrees with me. + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2012 03:55 Kurumi wrote: Radfield seemed to care too much about Town picking Roleblocker. He was all on guns to push it through, while supplying his argument with pure crap, like that we will be able to trust every check with a Roleblocker, which is obviously false. Yes, Roleblocker is the best role for scum, Radfield tried to sway the opinion of the people saying that Roleblocker will grant US best roles, which is not the case. Vigilante? Pfff. Doctor? Yeah, really. Child? As I said, it takes an insane man to pick that role. Tracker is the best role out there. One-time Cop sucks, but he CAN'T FAIL like Vigilante can. Also his argument that "if we make it public that we are picking roleblocker it makes mafia pick those roles!" and then "it doesn't matter if we make it public, they will pick same roles anyway" It was fishing for votes so they could pick good roles. RB is unlimited use and can be used actively and works versus every role. @WBG Obviously. Actually, my real scum meta is that I don't troll and try to lay down (I did troll a bit in my last scum game, though) I didn't troll in some games too. So yeah, thanks for the finger point, now what? Correct, if we knew a roleblocker was in the mix, our trackers and cops would be able to trust every check. In addition, we can trust every check 100% from confirmed cops and trackers(ie dead cops and trackers). Obviously I was never stating that we can trust every claim only that every confirmed check is 100%. Unlike now, where every confirmed check is pretty much garbage. In a mini-game setup with no medics, mafia have basically no need at all for a roleblocker, because they simply shoot whomever they think is blue. It's a simple concept Kurumi, I'm not sure why you're struggling with it. Additionally, we only have 1 role that even has to worry about being roleblocked, because all our other claiming roles are 1 or 2 shot. I would argue that framer is far and away the best role for mafia in this setup as it immediately makes two of our roles next to useless. Whereas roleblocker only has the potential to significantly hinder a tracker. You're argument for me being scum is basically that you disagree with me. If there is more than that then please let me know. Did we actually just catch scum by hiropro voting godfather?? Time to filter!! | ||
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On June 01 2012 05:05 talismania wrote: Kurumi this is part of the reason I didn't buy into your argument that framer is the weakest for mafia under roleblocker. Let's say mafia has roleblocker and town knows it, and gave town a cop. Someone day 3 (so, 8 people left) says "I am the one-shot cop, I investigated X and X is town". No one counterclaims. (If anyone does then it's a 1 for 1 trade which is fine). Is there any reason to then question that check? The same scenario can be drawn up for tracker, which would only be different in that there would be more info but it would be less indicative of alignment (not of the tracker but of those he checked). This thinking is why I voted roleblocker, and why I'm surprised so many people went with framer (unless all the framer votes are mafia fakes). No, mafia know what roles are in the game, and presumably can fake claim a role which does not exist(therefore not getting counter-claimed). However, once a single blue role flips, our second REAL blue role will counter claim the cop, so the mafia will get busted eventually, just not right away. | ||
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On June 01 2012 05:13 Sbrubbles wrote: @Radfield, I was thinking about this before my vote. If they knew we were going to get medic, they'd want a roleblocker (to prevent town going into follow-the-confirmed-townie mode), but it doesn't necessarily work the other way around. Them knowing the we picked roleblocker doesn't make it that they'd give us a medic. Tracker/vig or tracker/cop are perfectly reasonable combinations. A Roleblocker is essencially a second "blue snipe" for them, because they'll have a really good idea of if they got their block right. This about this: If cop doesn't claim day 2 they'll know they got their N1 block right. If a tracker claims but isn't convincing, they can do as I said above. If they gave us vig, then 1 kill in the night means they blocked correctly and would eliminate the vig the following night. My thinking is that tracker/vig or tracker/cop vs a roleblocker is really unbalanced in favor of town, so if they wanted to give us that, more power to them. I hadn't considered them being able to realize if they'd successfully blocked a cop or vig, but that's a good point, and does give the roleblocker role more potency. Either way, us landing 5-5 right now on Framer vs Roleblocker is fantastic as it has the potential to basically give us a list-check later on down the line. | ||
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I'm not completely against a hiropro lynch right now, though I need to reread his filter. He spent almost all of day 0 discussing the poisons, and a proportionally small amount talking about the roles. His reasoning for picking gf does seem legit, but that doesn't clear him in my eyes. The problem right now is there was a lot for scum to discuss on Day 0, and a lot for them to potentially contribute to town, without actually helping town all that much. | ||
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Sloosh, you keep asking for other peoples opinions, but what are YOUR opinions? Radfield, Kurumi, risk.nuke, sbrubbles? Thoughs on those players? On June 01 2012 08:54 slOosh wrote: Anyways, Hiro's GF vote is fine. His explanation shows that he thought it through (false positives? I didn't even consider that), makes sense in the context of not knowing what role might be picked, and furthermore it is something that knowingly invites attention on himself which he is handling fine. I disagree that hiropro's gf vote is 'fine'. While I agree that his gf pick has reasoning, it still doesn't make a lot of sense in the context of our day 1 discussion. There was almost no discussion of gf, and hiropro certainly made no attempt to sway any other players to vote for it. I'm not saying that makes his scum, but he certainly gets no credit for it either. The fact that he is the only gf player, when scum put themselves at risk by doing anything but 1-1-1, is very noteworthy. I haven't quite wrapped my mind around what it means if scum voted 2-1 though, and what we can possibly glean from that. I do agree that we need more from risk.nuke though, but that's obvious at this point. | ||
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I'm considering voting zephirdd though. Anyone else willing to vote Z-man? | ||
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On June 02 2012 06:17 Toadesstern wrote: 1. Toad says hiro votin GF is incredible scummy 2. Rad posts: 3. ... 4. Nothing? What was your result of filterting him? That statement I quoted sounds really strong and yet I'm the only one voting hiro when noone has disagreed with it except for hiro? Is there a reason for that? On June 01 2012 19:26 Radfield wrote: I'm not completely against a hiropro lynch right now, though I need to reread his filter. He spent almost all of day 0 discussing the poisons, and a proportionally small amount talking about the roles. His reasoning for picking gf does seem legit, but that doesn't clear him in my eyes. The problem right now is there was a lot for scum to discuss on Day 0, and a lot for them to potentially contribute to town, without actually helping town all that much. Fact is Toad, I'm not really sure on HiroPro. I had him down as looking ok and contributing, albeit tentatively. Then he was shown to be the only gf candidate, but has managed to do it with pretty good reasoning. I was considering pushing him just to see if the lynch was derailed or pushed through, and adjust accordingly, but didn't really have the time to do it properly. I also really want to lynch him just to see his flip, and that's kind of a bad state of mind. I still need to read his filter thoroughly though. On June 02 2012 02:49 Zephirdd wrote: What do you expect me to do as town? Just let people think I'm scum or something? I changed my mind too fast; there is all I can say about it. You just played(or rather, watched) a game where I was scum(or rather, had a scum mindset). Let me show you the biggest difference between me and my play on PYP  I am being sincere.Sorry, but I wouldn't even consider changing my mind as scum, no matter what. I'd stick to what I said at first and try to create the most chaos I could. Get off me; pushing me is the worst move you can do atm. This post actually strikes me as quite genuine and townish. I'm not sure I like a Zephirdd lynch anymore. After re-reading Sbrubbles' filter, he doesn't really look scummy. On June 02 2012 05:57 prplhz wrote: I hope Radfield has some more time soon. Everybody else needs to start talking about the lynch too. risk.nuke is European so I think it's very weird that he hasn't said much about the lynch yet with us approaching deadline like this. It's almost 11PM in Europe. I will have time, particularly saturday and sunday. It won't help us much for our lynch today, but I'm not really much of a Day 1 guy anyways. People always look for me to lead on Day 1, but I never really have much but a handful of town reads.... unless I'm scum, when I consistently lead Day 1 lynches  I will be around for the lynch and deadline, and right now am probably willing to vote Hiropro, but I want to filter him 1 more time. I need to make some dinner right now though. | ||
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On June 02 2012 06:52 slOosh wrote: Is that the sole reason why you think Hiro is a good lynch candidate - the GF vote? You do realize 5/12 players did not encrypt their votes, making voting analysis really weak? It's possible that mafia chose to send some to encrypt and others to bs after they received the vote tallies - or maybe they all encrypted or maybe none did. Why is Hiro voting GF an exclusively scummy thing to do and not something that a townie would do? Which 5 sloosh? At the very least, me and Toad were obviously voting roleblocker, and had we claimed anything but it would be very strange. | ||
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On June 02 2012 06:39 Toadesstern wrote: Any chance hiros lynch is going to happen? That guy is not playing at all and I still think the GF vote is as scummy as you can get. That being said Zephird isn't really as much as an option for me... Hiro voted Zephird and I doubt they're bussing on d1 lol Come on now Toad... you know better than that. You CANNOT draw connections between players like that when their alignments are unknown. That's actually a bit concerning. | ||
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On June 02 2012 06:58 prplhz wrote: I'm not going to use it forever, but right now it looks like something mafia wont do so I don't want to lynch him today. If he continues to do weird stuff that could be interpreted as scummy, then I'm going to put more focus on him. You are saying that someone put an argument out there that scum would do this and that, and then when somebody does exactly this, you say that he's scum? That seems too weird that scum would put themselves in a position like this unless there was a huge gain, what huge gain do you think this is? I'm now going to postulate that HiroPro isn't scum and that scum voted 2-1. Why do you think that's not likely? The vote was going to be split anyway and there were tons of people who didn't even encrypt so we can't verify what they did, HiroPro not only encrypted his vote and voted very early, he decided to vote for something that people had already said would be scummy. Even though scum would have something to gain by doing it, they would also have a lot to lose and they would know this. What do you think about Sbrubbles and Navilus? That's actually a pretty decent point. After filtering him, Sbrubbles looks alright for the moment. Navilus I haven't looked at. | ||
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Particularly because he basically blueclaimed. Lets let mafia take care of him, there is absolutely no need for us to lynch someone who is bluehinting: On June 02 2012 02:49 Zephirdd wrote: Get off me; pushing me is the worst move you can do atm. Lets just leave him alone. If he is still alive tomorrow with no claim, and still looks scummy, THEN we deal with him. ##Vote: Hiropro I still need to filter him though | ||
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However, I'm mid-way through your filter and it's extremely unlikely I am going to keep my vote on you. | ||
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Also, given they way discussion was going yesterday, I would not be surprised if mafia put 2 votes on RB and 1 vote on Framer, expecting it to be a runaway roleblocker win. I certainly expected everyone to pick roleblocker. I don't want to lynch Zeph, and I'm willing to give risk more time. However I'm completely willing to lynch Navillus. In fact, I would not be surprised to see him flip scum. Filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=340727&user=153628 Navillus is basically coasting Day 0 and doing the bare minimum to qualify as 'contributing'. His posts regarding poison and role selection are short and contain little original content, containing mainly obvious statements and corrections. Since Day 1 began he has basically only questioned hiro slightly regarding his pick, and then posted this whopper: On June 02 2012 07:09 Navillus wrote: First I'll say for the sake of people knowing I'm not new, I've been playing on another site, I've played a few games here before, and if you go checking the other site (mafiascum) I have played as scum. With that out of the way... WBG I think you're getting games confused, you wanted to lynch me in the OTHER game, not this one silly. More seriously one thing that I didn't realize before that game because I was used to games with a couple weeks to each day was that I have a fairly short period of possible activity in my days, I get home at 4-5pm edt and go to sleep at probably 12-1am so just in terms of the course of a day i won't be posting for more than 2/3s of it. Also can we get a votecount for now ##Vote: Zephirdd He has no posts that really push anyone, he's defensive, asks questions, points out what he apparently thinks is a scummy post then forgets about it and the poster (nuke's post). He basically doesn't look like he's trying to find scum in any of his posts, just that he wants to keep talking and look active. Now I would like to know from someone else because I don't remember anything about who's a vet here or not, how much has he played/how experienced is he, I could see his type of posting from someone new and not wanting to push people but I also thought I saw him referring to some older game so he doesn't sound new. (if he's like the most experienced person here and that was a really dumb question my bad) I also am not a huge fan of the hiro lynch because I personally am bad at getting setup specific reads, but I also think it could be a legitimate slip, he wouldn't be my first choice (obviously that's zeph) but I also don't have a town read or something on him. Big post, little content. It almost feels like this is navillus' token post for the day. He's fulfilled his obligation by making a big post, explained his vote, and can now disappear. And by disappear, I mean he's actually still here and posting, just not contributing in the slightest. In addition, his reasoning for not wanting to vote Hiro is bizarre at best, and quite scummy at worst. This post is a big pile of nothing. Even his paragraph devoted to voting Zephirdd is actually only 2 sentences of reasoning, and a couple sentences discussing vets. Navillus is NOT a lurker, and is attempting to 'contribute'. Yet his contributions are basically non existant, and really only amount to trying to fit in. ##Vote Navillus | ||
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On June 02 2012 11:15 wherebugsgo wrote: That's really strange how fast those votes piled on. Good news is that it sheds a lot of light on the alignment of the sheepers. I'll be doing some rereading and will post my thoughts before deadline. Why is it strange? Given that Navillus was town, it what you would expect to see. A bunch of townies looking for an acceptable lynch, with mafia piling into the mix to ensure a death. How does it shed light on the sheepers any more than it sheds light on you and me(ie, the pushers). Not to mention that of the players who did not vote for Navillus(zephirdd, Kurumi, risk.nuke), 2 of those players are almost surely in bed, and one was not in thread(and possibly also in bed). Which means they don't even get cred for not being on the wagon. I do agree there is information to be gleaned though. | ||
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I agree with sbrubbles that lynch lock is the best option for tomorrow, as it is essentially our freebee. Mayoral election will be fine for day 3. Alas, the rest of my night will be filled with playing sc2 with friends | ||
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Medics, cops and trackers can do their own thing. Innocent child obviously does nothing until it is pertinent. Vigilante should probably be shooting. Prplhz, majority +1 is probably the hardest poison unless we have an obvious lynch. It should be the one that we don't use,or only use situationally. Right now we have very little focus and very little galvinization of potential lynch targets. Majority +1 is a bad choice. | ||
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On June 03 2012 08:31 prplhz wrote: @Radfield If the vigilante is like "Should I shoot prplhz or should I shoot risk.nuke?" then what would you advice him to do? I'm pretty ok with a shot on you prplhz, but I haven't actually done the legwork to confidently direct a shot. As far as risk.nuke, he will either step up his game or not, but so far he has simply done nothing, which is null by definition. I also feel like I have a pretty good feel for risk.nuke's play, and can adequately determine his alignment as the game goes on. There is something I would like to post just prior to the deadline. | ||
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On June 03 2012 10:28 Toadesstern wrote: this time I will ninja YOU Rad :p I'll believe it when I see it | ||
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First, he has 100% blueclaimed at this point, we simply don't know his role: This: On June 02 2012 02:49 Zephirdd wrote: Get off me; pushing me is the worst move you can do atm. plus this and this: On June 02 2012 08:12 Radfield wrote: Particularly because he basically blueclaimed. Lets let mafia take care of him, there is absolutely no need for us to lynch someone who is bluehinting: On June 03 2012 01:20 Zephirdd wrote: I'm amazed that I wasn't lynched. Thankfully Rad noted what I did there. Is a 100% blueclaim. This means that come morning Zephirdd needs to be dead, roleblocked or have a (hopefully verifiable) claim for us. Pretty much anything else means he is scum. Honestly, his play this game has been quite scummy, and apart from him blueclaiming he would have and should have been lynched. If he manages to live through the night, and in particular if he lives, and someone else is roleblocked, he should be lynched. I am posting this at the last minute, because I don't want mafia to switch their actions around to somehow frame zephirdd by leaving him untouched. They know what roles we have, and hence know if we have any roles which can be self-confirmable. The one possibility is that if we have a medic, and mafia have no roleblocker, they might leave zephirdd alive. Apparently bluelightz isn't getting any actions either.... so he might live because of that too... I don't have any exceptionally strong reads yet, but I think Hiropro and talismania are both town. Sbrubbles looks good too. Bugs does not look particularly good. | ||
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)Zephirdd, why aren't you dead? Can anyone give me a reason Zephirdd shouldn't claim? I don't particularly disagree with the prplhz assessment. I'm a bit thrown by his whole disqualified vote thing though. As that seems like a strange thing to come up with considering mafia didn't actually vote in the first place. We need anyone who was roleblocked to claim ASAP. In fact perhaps we should wait to see if there are any roleblocks before Zeph claims. | ||
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It's possible that this is a decent time for any innocent child to claim, but I'm not sure. There is an optimum time for the IC to claim though, and it's not necessarily only when they are on the ropes. Consider that an IC dying from a nightkill before they have claimed is a completely useless role. The strength comes from us having a confirmed townie for a while, and forcing mafia to shoot in a particular direction(shielding other strong players and the other power role). Tracker should claim if he tracked mafia to a kill or a frame, though ideally you simply push and build a case first, and only claim if necessary. Standard stuff really. | ||
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I have some filters to look through tomorrow | ||
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First of all, prefiltering I was feeling quite strongly that Zephirdd was scum. The combo of weak accusations, flip flopping and the fake blue claim all added up to him being almost certainly scum. However, upon reading his filter I think that is incorrect. His play has certainly been poor, but I do not think it has been scummy. I don't have any real specifics, but his mannerisms and general demeanor are leading me towards him being town. It feels like he has been shooting from the hip this game, which is why he's getting into trouble. Second, I don't think prplhz is scum. His play so far has been straightforward, and his reasoning has been sound. I think he has a solid defense from toad, and I don't think his play in relation to Navillus was scummy. In fact, for anyone who played in WoF mafia, it was the exact same thing I was saying about Zentor in that game. Mafia generally KNOW what is scummy, and play to avoid that. Mafia priority early on is blending in and looking town, and this game day 0 was really really easy for scum to blend in. Navillus was most definitely not trying to blend in or look town. It should have been obvious to me that navillus was town, but that long post of his was really poor and set me going. Day 1 is very difficult if mafia have plenty of neutral things to discuss. Third, some setup speculation: No cop claim today means no 1-shot cop. No bullet means no vigilante(a 2-shot vig in a mini should be shooting night 1). Neither of those are surprising, as mafia giving us medic+tracker is much more likely. If no IC claims tomorrow during our mayor election(talismania is right that this is when is should be revealed), then we pretty much know for sure that we have a medic+tracker. Also, given the fact that WBG died and not me, I assume we have a medic. Additionally, we also have no roleblocker claim, which means we have a framer. There is an outside chance that mafia simply opted to not roleblock, but that seems unlikely to me. + Show Spoiler [Vote Count] + Keep in mind that prplhz's vote apparently did not count, so the 'voting' was 5-5-1. Framer Sbrubbles Kurumi Zephirdd wherebugsgo sloosh Roleblocker Navillus talismania toadesstern radfield risk.nuke prplhz Godfather Hiropro I think Hiropro is town, and I think mafia voted 2-1 in favor of roleblocker. Vocal opinion on Day 0 seemed like it was going to be a landslide roleblocker victory, and I think mafia would be far more likely to double up on RB than on Framer. Additionally, given the fact that we ended up with framer and not roleblocker, it seems very likely that there are too many fake votes in the roleblocker camp. Prplhz, you mentioned that you felt mafia would likely double up on framer, and not roleblocker. Why? I think we can all agree that a 3-0 from mafia is exceedingly unlikely. So that leaves us with 1 scum in the framer camp, and 2 scum in the roleblocker camp. I am in the roleblocker camp, and I also have 2 town reads in the roleblocker camp, which leaves the situation like this: From my vantage point: Roleblocker Navillus talismania toadesstern radfield risk.nuke prplhz All of a sudden this looks very easy. Even if I am wrong about 2 scum being in the roleblocker camp, I think we can all agree that there is at least one. It's possible I am wrong about prp or talismania, but I doubt it right now. Both their filters look solid. So that means one of risk.nuke or Toad is very very likely scum in my opinion. In fact, it's very possible(even likely) that both are scum. To me right now that scum feels like Toad. As I mentioned I haven't re-filtered him yet, but I've had a slight scum read on him all game. Risk.nuke I'm pretty null right now, but I got an 'ok for now' feeling from his filter. He's not putting in much effort, but he has content despite that. Anyways, that's not a case on Toad by any means, but I wanted to write that out. Back to the grind. Sbrubbles, you mentioned that Hiropro preferred framer to godfather on D0, but I don't see it. Care to help me out? | ||
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On June 04 2012 04:54 Toadesstern wrote: EBWOP I guess that could be misunderstoof easily because that's german grammar lol. It's meant to be something along the lines of "why is defending someone, saying he's a townie [the guy in question, aka nav] , without proper reason something that makes someone scummy" Prplhz did have a reason. His reasoning was simple. Navillus was doing something that scum would generally NOT do. Scum like to blend in and look townish early on, especially in a game like this where Day 0 contributions are so easy. Navillus did not do this. Not to mention, Prplhz did not play the 'stop guys he's town' card, which you seem to be claiming he did. If anything you should be jumping on prp for VOTING for navillus after defending him. He actually voted for navillus before you did.... | ||
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If you want to show you're voting for someone, just write your votes in this thread, but don't put them in the voting thread. | ||
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Do you think we have a medic? If we have a medic, mafia know it. It's fairly obvious that I would be the target of any potential medic protection. Hence, mafia do not shoot me. Exact same thing happened in I'm a Cop you Idiot. I was fairly obviously town, we had a medic, so mafia shot bugs instead of me. And just like then, I'm thrilled it happened because it means I don't have to worry about bugs anymore. This is exactly why I wanted a medic by the way I assume you are insinuating I am scum because I survived N1. Last game I died Night 1 was Mafia XLVII, 6 town games ago. However I've died 3 other times N2 since then. My previous N1 death before that was all the way back at XXII. I don't really die N1 that much anymore, because medics and mafia know me. I mainly die/take hits on Night 2. | ||
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On June 04 2012 06:07 prplhz wrote: @Radfield Requesting a paragraph or two about your opinion of talismania (that he's likely town). Also I'd like to know why you preferred a potential vigilante killing me over risk.nuke last night, and what changed your opinion today. I reread your filter is what changed my mind. There was something funny going on with your posts though, and you voted Navillus real quick after defending him for a bit. I think Kurumi wrote something that swayed me a bit as well. I'm really not sure why I was leaning scummy on you right there, I even had you written down as PROB TOWN in my notes. I could go back and reread and tell you my thought process, but I really don't feel like it right now, though your question is a valid one. I also don't really feel like writing about talismania, though I will at a later date. Right now I want to build my case. | ||
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Or rather, why do I think Toad is scum. This may be slightly long winded, and it certainly won't be concise. Toad is an active player as scum, and has fooled me twice before because of that. There is no clear and decisive scum agenda Toad is pushing, and there is no one thing that makes him scum(though I did find my first ever real-live damning scumslip). Instead what I have is a body of evidence that shows Toad is not playing with Town goals in mind. He is playing in an effort to lead mislynches, and with a goal of keeping town moving in the wrong direction. I find very little scummy in Toad's Day 0 play. With lots to contribute and lots to discuss it is extremely easy for an active scum player(like Toad) to blend in on Day 0. Apart from the fact that he begins to buddy me very early on, I see little that leads me to think he is scum in the first 24 hours. Day 1 however is a very different story. I'd like to talk about 4 main points. First, the pushing of Hiropro. Second, the WBG flip flop(which has been discussed, but not adequately). Third, and most damning, the double scum slip. Fourth and lastly, the case on Prplhz. There are also several additional small isolated issues which I will mention. Please remember that none of these points by themselves indicate that Toad is scum. But taken as an entire body of evidence they amount to a damning case against a very likely scum player. I'd also like to mention that this case is NOT based on my previous analysis of Framer/Roleblocker/GF votes. That was an exercise to narrow down my focus, NOT the basis of a case. However I am confident that I was correct in my assessment. Point Number 1: the attack on Hiropro What I'd like to represent is that Toad attempts to push a lynch onto Hiro very strongly. A lynch not based on whether or not Hiro is scummy, but rather based solely on the fact that Hiro voted GF. Additionally, Toad states strongly and ephatically that Hiro is scum.... and then waffles away and gives alternate targets. Let me say that again, he is almost sure that hiro is scum, going so far as to say "Hiro is basicly a claimed mafia", but then offers up other lynch options. What!? If you think a guy is for sure scum, and has slipped hard, you don't just offer up other options. Also, witness the tone: First, incredulity and confusion, but no accusation: On June 01 2012 04:39 Toadesstern wrote: That's got to be a joke. Godfather? Why?!?! It was clear the decision would be either RB or framer at some point and you chose to pick Godfather and completly wasted your vote? Someone explained (I think risk?) d0 that the only solution to not screw up as mafia is to pick 1-1-1. 1 guy votes RB, one guy votes framer, one guy picks GF because that way they add 1 to each thing and don't change a thing. So wtf? Second: Weirdness and oddness, with some discussion about why you should stick to the plans. Again, no hint of a strong accusation here. An accusation perhaps of not being a team player, even equating his play to a townie from a different game, but both those things actually soft accuse Hiropro of being Town, just not a team player. On June 01 2012 05:29 Toadesstern wrote: Well you've got to agree that it's looking weird that you are apparently the only one who voted GF when we talked about how 1-1-1 is the only way for mafia to not screw up and all the talk d0 was either about RB > framer or about framer > RB. Why didn't you talk about this? This is essentially the same thing I was talking about in PYP when talking with risk. I have no problem with people telling me they think otherwise and that we should change a "plan" but I do have a problem with people ninja-voting without telling us screwing us over. If what you said is reasonable (and I don't think it is) you should have tried to explain to us why what you said is reasonable. Yet here you stand, voting GF and it's apparently not important enough to you what role mafia gets because you haven't told us so and you still voted GF and not, like everyone else either RB or framer. That's really odd. Next post and several hours later Toad drops down his vote without further discussion. No additional points raised, but we've gone from gentle admonition to wanting him to hang. He follows it up with this post which is a giant contradiction. A) thinks Hiro is basically a claimed mafia. B) is willing to lynch some other guy who is NOT a claimed mafia in Toads eyes. That does not jive one bit. On June 01 2012 21:50 Toadesstern wrote: I'd like to lynch into hiro or wbg at this point. Hiro is basicly a claimed mafia who says "well yeah, but would a mafia claim mafia?" which just doesn't work for me anymore since PYP. WBG is just plain ridiculous right now and he's way better as town than what we see here. Add that to what I mentioned earlier about him (not knowing the d0 cycle was only 24 hours, not posting) and I feel like wbg would be the best vet to lynch into if I can convince you to lynch into a vet :p Toad then goes on to only softly push Hiropro. First adding on a convoluted reason for him to be scum, which is quickly shown to be incorrect, and then falling into softy urging posts like these: + Show Spoiler + On June 02 2012 06:17 Toadesstern wrote: 1. Toad says hiro votin GF is incredible scummy 2. Rad posts: 3. ... 4. Nothing? What was your result of filterting him? That statement I quoted sounds really strong and yet I'm the only one voting hiro when noone has disagreed with it except for hiro? Is there a reason for that? On June 02 2012 06:39 Toadesstern wrote: Any chance hiros lynch is going to happen? That guy is not playing at all and I still think the GF vote is as scummy as you can get. That being said Zephird isn't really as much as an option for me... Hiro voted Zephird and I doubt they're bussing on d1 lol On June 02 2012 07:41 Toadesstern wrote: Ok screw this, hiro is not going to happen... need to think and read and vice versa This from a guy who felt he had bagged a scum straight up. The real gist here is that Toad's tone does not follow any kind of cohesion. He's hot and cold and up and down on hiro, but always with a pushing towards lynch. Point 2: The bugs flip=flop First Toad makes 3 posts that point him having a pretty null read on bugs, and certainly not a scum read: + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2012 01:10 Toadesstern wrote: [EDIT: referring to bugs:)Well the game only now started and I probably look like I don't care right now as well as I'm not posting at all. The thing is that we're lacking activity right now, we haven't even got an update from everyone what they've voted and we need that. On June 01 2012 01:52 Toadesstern wrote: I'm saying that I have the same read about multiple people right now. It could be on purpose, it could be frustration and it's more of a sign of lazyness than an indication of scummyness right now. On June 01 2012 02:35 Toadesstern wrote: I read the OP once every game and when questions like those appear I check the parragraph again. I was frankly quite shocked that wbg didn't know it's only a 24h cycle because again. Those are the things I keep checking again and again to make sure I understand the details. I'd take the "didn't know about the 24h"-thing much more as an "not caring about the game"-argument than the fact that people are posting so little right now. However, without mentioning him again, he now wants to lynch bugs. Not only that, but he's adding in bugs when he has already apparently found a 'claimed mafia' in Hiropro. On June 01 2012 21:50 Toadesstern wrote: I'd like to lynch into hiro or wbg at this point. Hiro is basicly a claimed mafia who says "well yeah, but would a mafia claim mafia?" which just doesn't work for me anymore since PYP. WBG is just plain ridiculous right now and he's way better as town than what we see here. Add that to what I mentioned earlier about him (not knowing the d0 cycle was only 24 hours, not posting) and I feel like wbg would be the best vet to lynch into if I can convince you to lynch into a vet :p Also, look at his reasoning: not knowing the cycle was 24 hours, and not posting. Yet those are the exact thing that Toad mentioned earlier, not as scummy though, but as null! So how do those things suddenly become the basis of a case to rival hiropro, someone he thinks is very likely scum. Straight up contradictions. Point 3: The scum slips Let me be clear that I have never before found what I consider to be a true 'scum-slip'. The word gets bandied about on this site, and can mean pretty much anything. What it really means though, is to be in possession of information that townies could not possibly have, and only mafia could have. On June 02 2012 10:16 Toadesstern wrote: got ninja'ed About sbrubbles: I'll tell you once d2 has started for obvious reasons, sry. hmm, where's the scum-slip you ask? I missed it at first too, but it's very clearly there. Toad is absolutely 100% he will be around on Day 2. There is only 1 way, and I do mean 1 way, that Toad can be convinced he will live till Day 2. But maybe it was just a slip of the tongue, and he's not actually sure he'll survive the night.... On June 03 2012 00:35 Toadesstern wrote: Okay back and I know I promised I would talk about who those 2 guys are I mentioned and why they are mafia but I realized I was retarded when I said that. See you d2 :p Except he does it again!! He confirms the scumslip. This is a guy who just recently was shot night 1 in WoF mini-mafia, and has been getting shot more and more by mafia. There is no reason at all he should be certain he'll survive the night. In fact, if he is town he should be expecting that he is one of the more likely shots. In fact, he even posts his prplhz case right before the deadline, as if he might get shot. But how then is he 100% certain he'll survive till Day 2. There are no vets, and no other way he could be certain he will survive. The only way to be certain is if he is scum. Point 4: The prplhz case I'm going to make this brief, as I feel there is already a body of evidence that shows Toads guilt without this. However Toads push on prplhz is indicative of a scum-push. Very often, when a scum player tries to push a townie, he does it by citing the wrong reasons. There are reasons to see prplhz as scummy, but NOT because of his defense of Navillus. The key is that prplhz defended Navillus several times, but then switched over and voted for him early on in the wagon(3rd vote). There is an argument to be made there that prplhz was scummy in doing that. Toad touches on that, but his focus is squarely on the fact that prplhz should not have found Navillus scummy in the first place. This is a competely backwards approach, one because prplhz was clear in his reasoning, and second because townies are defended all the time along the same lines prplhz was using. Toad is pushing prplhz for the wrong reason, something which scum do all the time. This is not a particularly strong point, but a valid one nonetheless. Additionally, Toad has been buddying me all game, asking for activity without contributing himself and appealing to dead players. Add in the 4 points of my case, and you have a player who is almost assuredly mafia. Vote for Toad. In fact, I don't even mind if you vote in the voting thread too, as I'm fairly sure he is scum. ##Vote: Toadesstern | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + Part 1: I thought Hiropro is a semi-vet. That's why I attacked him for the GF vote because I thought a vet would be smart enough to figure out that it's either RB or framer with all the talk d0 and I thought I caught him lying about why he voted for GF. Furthermore I would have considered a vet who really thinks that GF could be an issue to be more talkactive about what he found out BEFORE the end of deadline. That was basicly it. And yeah it collapsed the moment I was told hiro is not a vet. If you had told me "i wasn't sure it's between RB and Framer and therefore voted GF" I would have voted you as well. About the confirmed... Give me one game in which I don't talk about confirmed people. That's an exaggeration I can't get rid of. I called VE confirmed mafia in LV and he flipped town lol. You'll notice in my post I never once referred to the hiropro vs hiroprotagonist issue. That's because it has absolutely nothing to do with the way you acted. It had nothing to do with what you were doing, but rather how you were doing it. You thought hiro was scum, yet you did not attempt to bring up a single other thing from his filter to corroborate that theory. You treated hiro as a misguided townie, but then threw down your vote and called him 'claimed scum'. Despite having a strong scum read, you threw another name into the lynch candidate mix. All your actions at that point were scummy. It has absolutely nothing to do with whether you thought Hiropro was hiroprotagonist. + Show Spoiler + Part 2: I added WBG to the list because I thought the 24-hour thing IS something weird while the not talking part wasn't considering that half of the players had not started talking at that time Yet your previous feeling on the 24 hour thing: I'd take the "didn't know about the 24h"-thing much more as an "not caring about the game"-argument than the fact that people are posting so little right now. mentioned nothing about bugs being scummy. You're also trying to tell me right now that you didn't find his 'not talking' scummy, when you clearly indicated you found it scummy: Add that to what I mentioned earlier about him (not knowing the d0 cycle was only 24 hours, not posting) and I feel like wbg would be the best vet to lynch into if I can convince you to lynch into a vet + Show Spoiler + Part 3: That's me referring to the deadline. As in "See you tomorrow and in I'll answer that 10 seconds short of the deadline with one big post". Also I got A LOT of criticism for mentioning I'm a n1 target in LV. Go read n1 of that game Rad. I thought I should just keep it neutral this time because people called me disruptive in LV for that reason. I don't buy this, not for a second. That was you absolutely referring to Day 2, NOT the end of Night 1. It has nothing to do with you mentioning or not if you were a target. It has to do with you being sure that you would live to Day 2. The rest is not worth responding to. I strongly believe you to be scum. | ||
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On June 04 2012 08:20 Toadesstern wrote: Ok if I am referring to Day2 show me the big post on d2 I was referring to on d2... Here's a little quote from WBG from LV after I said I'm probably going to die n1: and I've got that a lot. I take the neutral stance on wether or not I'm going to die n1 as an improvement because I was told to not talk about it anymore A LOT. Allow me to remove the irrelevent parts of your post and leave the only relevant bit: On June 04 2012 08:20 Toadesstern wrote: Ok if I am referring to Day2 show me the big post on d2 I was referring to on d2... OK, that's much easier to read. You are trying to tell me that when you said D2, you were actually referring to the end of night 1.... right.... On June 02 2012 10:16 Toadesstern wrote: got ninja'ed About sbrubbles: I'll tell you once d2 has started for obvious reasons, sry. 'once day 2 has started' 'once day 2 has started' 'once day 2 has started' How does 'once day 2 has started', mean 'the end of night 1'. I know it sucks when you caught in a scum-slip, but take solace in the fact that it was only the icing on the cake. I was leaning strong scum on you before I even found that. | ||
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My record for finding out your alignment is irrelevant. Please show me the games you were town where I thought you were scum. Keeping in mind that in WoF I specifically stated I was null on you, and leaning scum on sandroba(2 members of a hydra). Not to mention I am going to get better and better at reading you the more games we play together. I also specifically noted that my case on you is NOT built on vote analysis, but built upon your actions irrespective of other players alignments. I hope people have noticed that Toad has moved on from defending himself, to attacking me. | ||
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Not to mention, I stated clearly that I do not think Zephirdd Is scum at this moment. You also never showed me all the games you were town that I thought you were scum. I bring this up because you were trying to discredit my scumhunting based on those games, yet those games do not exist. Also, as I mentioned before, the issue with your actions regarding Hiropro had nothing to do with whether you thought he was hiroprotagonist. Even if he WAS hiroprotagonist, you actions up to and including the point where you voted him were very inconsistent and scummy. Something you have tried to wash under the bridge by pointing to your later confusion. On June 04 2012 12:43 slOosh wrote: I think talis mentioned that I stopped pushing Sbrubbles on the nonsense GF vote, which I think was part of Radfield's case against Toad. I need to refilter this properly tomorrow since I think he acknoweldges his mistake somewhere and a bunch of people who I think are town also think he looks ok so I gotta look again. What are you referring to? What is Sbrubbles 'nonsense GF vote'? | ||
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Radfield
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Radfield
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I really shouldn't have posted that I thought a shot on you was a good idea, and never would have if you hadn't explicitly asked. There were a few things though that were making you think you were scum right then. As I mentioned before, I actually had you written down as PROB TOWN in my notes. Pretty sure it was a combo of a) your vote on navillus after defending him, b) voting majority +1 when the obvious vote was lynch lock(majority +1 would be quite mafia favoured given that we had little focus at the end of day 1) and c) the fact that it seemed you were overconfident Kurumi had no gun. All that being said, once I filter you again yesterday I felt you were fairly strongly town aligned. @Sbrubbles, you're right, I misread when filtering. Not sure how that happened. On June 04 2012 21:13 Kurumi wrote: I find it funny that the thing that made Radfield's case strong for me is the "see you d2" slip and many people dismiss it as something normal. Thank you. I agree it is the strongest part, and am a bit baffled that people think townies commonly refer to the end of night 1 as day 2. Or that they state with confidence they will be around on day 2. It simply DOES NOT HAPPEN. | ||
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Radfield
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On June 05 2012 00:23 risk.nuke wrote: Lets just assume we don't have a medic instead of using that as an excuse to justify scum-kills. If any of you were scum, would you give town a medic? That's like sabotaging for yourself so can we please assume the scum did not sabotage for themself and did not give us a medic. Radfield, since you've ignored my post. Why do you think they killed wbg? How did I ignore your post? Which post are you even talking about, please show me. I'm not really interested in why bugs died. He's a good enough player that him getting shot N1 is fairly irrelevant. He's also the kind of player who has weak D1 reads, and then get startlingly accurate as the game goes on(as long as he doesn't get sidetracked). I also don't think scum realized medic was the strongest role we could have. On the surface it looks weak, as most medics miss, and it can't confirm townies or catch scum. Especially if they think they were getting roleblocker, then medic might seem like the least of the evils. I'm against lynching toad today. I don't have a good read on him and I think he will become easier to figure out later. Your resistance to lynching Toad is noted. Please state specifically which parts of my case you find strong or weak. Also, who is your alternative, still Zeph based off of WBG's accusations? | ||
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Radfield
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1. I explain how his early actions regarding Hiropro were scummy. Including his demeanor changes, vote and reasoning. Toad answers by talking about the Hiropro vs Hiroprotagonist issue, which had NOTHING TO DO with what I was talking about. It didn't matter WHO he thought he was talking to, because the way he was doing it was inherently scummy. 2. He originally used the 'not talking much' thing as an excuse to call bugs null, and then later added that in to his case on bugs being scummy. Something cannot be null to start, and then with no change become scummy later on when you try to think up reasons to lynch him. Toad completely ignores this part and only talks about the 24 hour thing and how he thought it was weird(not even scummy, yet he lists it as one of his reasons for finding bugs scummy). 3. He defends himself completely inadequately. Anyone who does not see this for a scum slip has not played enough mafia. You DO NOT say 'see you on day 2' when you actually mean 'see you at the end of night 1'. He also tries to stretch it as if I am claiming their is some Day 2 post, when that has nothing to do with what I am talking about. I'm talking about his confidence that he will survive to Day 2. 4. He never actually responds to my issues here. He is also deliberately stretching the truth or lying. He accused me of 'always thinking he was scum when he was town', but when I pressed him for examples he ignored me. He claims I think my entire case is based on the scum-slip, when I never said anything remotely similar. He claims my case was built out of my voting analysis, when I clearly and deliberately stated that was not the case. He claims I said that 3 of my points were 'weak', when of course I said no such thing. Toad is deliberately skewing things and trying to misdirect. He is scum. I also agree that risk.nuke is probably scum too, and see no redeeming features to his play. That being said, I feel Toad is a much larger threat than risk.nuke, as he is far more able to wiggle out of a lynch if I die. risk is going no where however. Additionally, assuming for a moment that we had an equal read on both Toad and risk, we gain wayyyyy more information from a Toad red flip than a risk red flip. Obviously we don't lynch based on getting info, but that doesn't mean we should disregard it either. | ||
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Radfield
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On June 05 2012 05:30 slOosh wrote: You seem to be doing the thing that Toad is doing and reading out of context. At the time no one expressed that the scumslip was the most damning aspect of the case. Actually I did, but it's neither here nor there. I think many people don't realize what a true scum slip is. I agree 100% with the rest of what you said though. Toad is picking and choosing what he defends, because for many of his actions he has no defense. Compare that to prplhz's defense from Toad's case, and you will find that prp adequately responded to each point with his thought process and reasoning for actions. | ||
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Radfield
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Radfield
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If we kill Toad and he flips red, medic(assuming we have one) will pretty much 100% cover me. Then we very likely lynch risk.nuke tomorrow. If we kill risk and he flips red, medic wonders if maybe Toad is town, and maybe I am scum. Scum shoots me, and Toad argues his way out of a lynch tomorrow because I am not around to push it through. Toad is very likely scum. risk.nuke is also probably scum(haven't refiltered him lately though, so he may be more or less scummy than I'm thinking). Lynching Toad gives us way more to take away than a risk.nuke lynch. Lynching Toad also pretty much confirms me as Town, as well as likely keeping me alive until the medic dies(blah blah if he exists). | ||
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Radfield
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On June 05 2012 06:03 Toadesstern wrote: depends on the lynch. If risk flips red you obviously shoot rad. It's funny because risk and Toad are BOTH probably red But yeah, you obviously shoot me.... | ||
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Radfield
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On June 05 2012 06:07 prplhz wrote: Okay lets hammer Toadesstern. I don't get why you are afraid of dying Radfield and I don't like how you are wobbling on risk.nuke. First "he's very likely scum" and then god damn 5 minutes later you didn't read his filter and you have no idea. I didn't say I have no idea. In fact, I think risk is probably scum. But I much prefer lynching Toad over risk today. If somehow Toad flips green and risk flip red, then I guess I look like shit, but I can handle that. | ||
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Radfield
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We vote Majority +1 tomorrow. | ||
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Radfield
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I kid, but I'm serious. Only I'm joking. I'm fairly certain we have a medic at this point. Protect me or else face ridicule at the end of the game | ||
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Radfield
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On June 05 2012 07:24 prplhz wrote: Really nice analysis, so good I didn't even really understand it Cheer up! I'll let you take the lead on risk.nuke! Dead scum! Rejoice! | ||
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Radfield
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Radfield
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What happens when risk flips town, or maybe even pops the innocent child(certainly another explanation for his play). We don't want to be caught with our pants down when that happens. Yes risk is probably scum, and yes we will probably be fine, but we're not going to throw away this position by relaxing. So lets all go and reread the thread knowing Toad was scum, or at least reread his filter and glean what we can. | ||
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Radfield
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Radfield
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Medic, no WIFOMing, just protect me. risk, I assume you claim you are innocent. Who do you think is scum or scummy right now? Right now you're almost certainly going to get railroaded tomorrow, so please give us some reasons to not lynch you. | ||
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Radfield
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Roleblocker Navillus talismania toadesstern radfield risk.nuke prplhz Framer Sbrubbles Kurumi Zephirdd wherebugsgo sloosh Godfather Hiropro[/spoiler] As I stated earlier, I think mafia voted 2 RB and 1 Framer. That leaves us with one scum amoung Sbrub, Zeph, Kurumi, sloosh. I lean town on both Zeph and Kurumi, though not super strong on either. Sloosh is probably town based on his actions yesterday, but it was apparant that one of risk or Toad were going down, so we have to assume the last scum was in full on bus mode. Anything else would be silly. Sbrubbles I have a null read on, but contrast that to WoF mafia where I was quite strongly Town on him by this point(and he was town). I haven't done a full filter reread yet, so nothing is set in stone. If risk flips red that pretty much confirms prp and talis as being town, as there is very little chance that mafia would vote 3-0. | ||
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Radfield
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If not you, then who? | ||
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Radfield
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Radfield
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risk.nuke, I feel like I kind of failed you. I never ended up looking closely again at your posts, because I thought you were scum, and I honestly did not think I would die N2. I'm not sure if I would have changed my mind or not, but there it is. prplhz, that's why we lynch Toad first! If Player A has a lot of content and looks scummy, and Player B has a small amount of content and looks scummy, lynch Player A first!I thought Talismania was town based mainly on the fact that the encryption idea was his. However I had a note down that while he came up with the idea, he did not appear to fully realize it's potency in that mafia could get caught lying and give us a list-check(which we ended up getting). I should have made a bigger deal out of that, as that is a very scum thing to do; pushing a plan, but not for the right reasons. It's similar to Toad pushing prplhz for the wrong reasons, and is a common mafia trait(because it's hard to see things from a mafia point of view). I agree 100% with Sbrubbles. Playing as mafia is extremely hard and stressful. In fact, the reason I don't play PM games is because I can't deal with it if I roll mafia, the stress is just too much. After 6 times as scum, I'm slowly getting able to handle being mafia. Not before I took about an 8 month break from playing though, solely because I wasn't having fun if I rolled mafia. Really solid play all around from town. Great play from mafia as well, and I think they picked the proper roles for town. If I was mafia I might have picked a Vigilante for town though. With 2 shots, it's very likely they are shooting on Night 1, and mafia can almost always stay hidden on night 1. It turns the game into a bit more of a coin toss, but can bring about an endgame extremely fast. Talismania, while I was wrong on you, I was actually right about sbrubbles. Early on I thought he was town, but by the time I had died I was pretty sure he was scum. You can see it from my "Toad, risk.nuke, Sbrubbles, GG NO RE!?" post. However, the reason I thought he was scum had more to do with seeing Kurumi, Zeph and Sloosh as town, then as anything particularly scummy Sbrubbles had done. Mafia got really hurt from the encrypting of votes and the subsequent Framer pick. List checks are outrageously powerful, and were in this game as well, despite us not knowing for sure what the exact picks were. Mafia were also hurt by the fact the HiroPro was playing very pro-town, which basically assured a 2-1 pick by mafia. Great setup by the way, and really good hosting. I would play this type of setup again for sure. Thanks Kita and bluelightz! | ||
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Radfield
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