EPTPick Your Poison Mafia - Page 3
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
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Radfield
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Radfield
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Radfield
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On June 02 2012 11:15 wherebugsgo wrote: That's really strange how fast those votes piled on. Good news is that it sheds a lot of light on the alignment of the sheepers. I'll be doing some rereading and will post my thoughts before deadline. Why is it strange? Given that Navillus was town, it what you would expect to see. A bunch of townies looking for an acceptable lynch, with mafia piling into the mix to ensure a death. How does it shed light on the sheepers any more than it sheds light on you and me(ie, the pushers). Not to mention that of the players who did not vote for Navillus(zephirdd, Kurumi, risk.nuke), 2 of those players are almost surely in bed, and one was not in thread(and possibly also in bed). Which means they don't even get cred for not being on the wagon. I do agree there is information to be gleaned though. | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I agree with sbrubbles that lynch lock is the best option for tomorrow, as it is essentially our freebee. Mayoral election will be fine for day 3. Alas, the rest of my night will be filled with playing sc2 with friends  | ||
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Radfield
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Medics, cops and trackers can do their own thing. Innocent child obviously does nothing until it is pertinent. Vigilante should probably be shooting. Prplhz, majority +1 is probably the hardest poison unless we have an obvious lynch. It should be the one that we don't use,or only use situationally. Right now we have very little focus and very little galvinization of potential lynch targets. Majority +1 is a bad choice. | ||
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Radfield
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On June 03 2012 08:31 prplhz wrote: @Radfield If the vigilante is like "Should I shoot prplhz or should I shoot risk.nuke?" then what would you advice him to do? I'm pretty ok with a shot on you prplhz, but I haven't actually done the legwork to confidently direct a shot. As far as risk.nuke, he will either step up his game or not, but so far he has simply done nothing, which is null by definition. I also feel like I have a pretty good feel for risk.nuke's play, and can adequately determine his alignment as the game goes on. There is something I would like to post just prior to the deadline. | ||
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Radfield
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Radfield
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On June 03 2012 10:28 Toadesstern wrote: this time I will ninja YOU Rad :p I'll believe it when I see it  | ||
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Radfield
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Radfield
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First, he has 100% blueclaimed at this point, we simply don't know his role: This: On June 02 2012 02:49 Zephirdd wrote: Get off me; pushing me is the worst move you can do atm. plus this and this: On June 02 2012 08:12 Radfield wrote: Particularly because he basically blueclaimed. Lets let mafia take care of him, there is absolutely no need for us to lynch someone who is bluehinting: On June 03 2012 01:20 Zephirdd wrote: I'm amazed that I wasn't lynched. Thankfully Rad noted what I did there. Is a 100% blueclaim. This means that come morning Zephirdd needs to be dead, roleblocked or have a (hopefully verifiable) claim for us. Pretty much anything else means he is scum. Honestly, his play this game has been quite scummy, and apart from him blueclaiming he would have and should have been lynched. If he manages to live through the night, and in particular if he lives, and someone else is roleblocked, he should be lynched. I am posting this at the last minute, because I don't want mafia to switch their actions around to somehow frame zephirdd by leaving him untouched. They know what roles we have, and hence know if we have any roles which can be self-confirmable. The one possibility is that if we have a medic, and mafia have no roleblocker, they might leave zephirdd alive. Apparently bluelightz isn't getting any actions either.... so he might live because of that too... I don't have any exceptionally strong reads yet, but I think Hiropro and talismania are both town. Sbrubbles looks good too. Bugs does not look particularly good. | ||
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Radfield
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Radfield
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)Zephirdd, why aren't you dead? Can anyone give me a reason Zephirdd shouldn't claim? I don't particularly disagree with the prplhz assessment. I'm a bit thrown by his whole disqualified vote thing though. As that seems like a strange thing to come up with considering mafia didn't actually vote in the first place. We need anyone who was roleblocked to claim ASAP. In fact perhaps we should wait to see if there are any roleblocks before Zeph claims. | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
It's possible that this is a decent time for any innocent child to claim, but I'm not sure. There is an optimum time for the IC to claim though, and it's not necessarily only when they are on the ropes. Consider that an IC dying from a nightkill before they have claimed is a completely useless role. The strength comes from us having a confirmed townie for a while, and forcing mafia to shoot in a particular direction(shielding other strong players and the other power role). Tracker should claim if he tracked mafia to a kill or a frame, though ideally you simply push and build a case first, and only claim if necessary. Standard stuff really. | ||
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Radfield
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I have some filters to look through tomorrow | ||
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Radfield
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First of all, prefiltering I was feeling quite strongly that Zephirdd was scum. The combo of weak accusations, flip flopping and the fake blue claim all added up to him being almost certainly scum. However, upon reading his filter I think that is incorrect. His play has certainly been poor, but I do not think it has been scummy. I don't have any real specifics, but his mannerisms and general demeanor are leading me towards him being town. It feels like he has been shooting from the hip this game, which is why he's getting into trouble. Second, I don't think prplhz is scum. His play so far has been straightforward, and his reasoning has been sound. I think he has a solid defense from toad, and I don't think his play in relation to Navillus was scummy. In fact, for anyone who played in WoF mafia, it was the exact same thing I was saying about Zentor in that game. Mafia generally KNOW what is scummy, and play to avoid that. Mafia priority early on is blending in and looking town, and this game day 0 was really really easy for scum to blend in. Navillus was most definitely not trying to blend in or look town. It should have been obvious to me that navillus was town, but that long post of his was really poor and set me going. Day 1 is very difficult if mafia have plenty of neutral things to discuss. Third, some setup speculation: No cop claim today means no 1-shot cop. No bullet means no vigilante(a 2-shot vig in a mini should be shooting night 1). Neither of those are surprising, as mafia giving us medic+tracker is much more likely. If no IC claims tomorrow during our mayor election(talismania is right that this is when is should be revealed), then we pretty much know for sure that we have a medic+tracker. Also, given the fact that WBG died and not me, I assume we have a medic. Additionally, we also have no roleblocker claim, which means we have a framer. There is an outside chance that mafia simply opted to not roleblock, but that seems unlikely to me. + Show Spoiler [Vote Count] + Keep in mind that prplhz's vote apparently did not count, so the 'voting' was 5-5-1. Framer Sbrubbles Kurumi Zephirdd wherebugsgo sloosh Roleblocker Navillus talismania toadesstern radfield risk.nuke prplhz Godfather Hiropro I think Hiropro is town, and I think mafia voted 2-1 in favor of roleblocker. Vocal opinion on Day 0 seemed like it was going to be a landslide roleblocker victory, and I think mafia would be far more likely to double up on RB than on Framer. Additionally, given the fact that we ended up with framer and not roleblocker, it seems very likely that there are too many fake votes in the roleblocker camp. Prplhz, you mentioned that you felt mafia would likely double up on framer, and not roleblocker. Why? I think we can all agree that a 3-0 from mafia is exceedingly unlikely. So that leaves us with 1 scum in the framer camp, and 2 scum in the roleblocker camp. I am in the roleblocker camp, and I also have 2 town reads in the roleblocker camp, which leaves the situation like this: From my vantage point: Roleblocker Navillus talismania toadesstern radfield risk.nuke prplhz All of a sudden this looks very easy. Even if I am wrong about 2 scum being in the roleblocker camp, I think we can all agree that there is at least one. It's possible I am wrong about prp or talismania, but I doubt it right now. Both their filters look solid. So that means one of risk.nuke or Toad is very very likely scum in my opinion. In fact, it's very possible(even likely) that both are scum. To me right now that scum feels like Toad. As I mentioned I haven't re-filtered him yet, but I've had a slight scum read on him all game. Risk.nuke I'm pretty null right now, but I got an 'ok for now' feeling from his filter. He's not putting in much effort, but he has content despite that. Anyways, that's not a case on Toad by any means, but I wanted to write that out. Back to the grind. Sbrubbles, you mentioned that Hiropro preferred framer to godfather on D0, but I don't see it. Care to help me out? | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 04 2012 04:54 Toadesstern wrote: EBWOP I guess that could be misunderstoof easily because that's german grammar lol. It's meant to be something along the lines of "why is defending someone, saying he's a townie [the guy in question, aka nav] , without proper reason something that makes someone scummy" Prplhz did have a reason. His reasoning was simple. Navillus was doing something that scum would generally NOT do. Scum like to blend in and look townish early on, especially in a game like this where Day 0 contributions are so easy. Navillus did not do this. Not to mention, Prplhz did not play the 'stop guys he's town' card, which you seem to be claiming he did. If anything you should be jumping on prp for VOTING for navillus after defending him. He actually voted for navillus before you did.... | ||
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Radfield
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If you want to show you're voting for someone, just write your votes in this thread, but don't put them in the voting thread. | ||
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Radfield
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Do you think we have a medic? If we have a medic, mafia know it. It's fairly obvious that I would be the target of any potential medic protection. Hence, mafia do not shoot me. Exact same thing happened in I'm a Cop you Idiot. I was fairly obviously town, we had a medic, so mafia shot bugs instead of me. And just like then, I'm thrilled it happened because it means I don't have to worry about bugs anymore. This is exactly why I wanted a medic by the way I assume you are insinuating I am scum because I survived N1. Last game I died Night 1 was Mafia XLVII, 6 town games ago. However I've died 3 other times N2 since then. My previous N1 death before that was all the way back at XXII. I don't really die N1 that much anymore, because medics and mafia know me. I mainly die/take hits on Night 2. | ||
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Radfield
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