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On June 12 2012 08:10 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 07:56 kitaman27 wrote:
The biggest problem with setups where so many people have guns is the town's lack of organization. It eventually ends up in a trollfest, where townies shoot each other, while the scum team sits in the background without attracting much attention. If you are town, don't forget to submit your vote for a 48 hour day cycle.
If you shoot five minutes into the game, you will be shot day two.
If you shoot within the first 24 hours of a cycle, you will be shot the following cycle
If you shoot without the town's consensus, you will be shot
I don't care if you shoot a mafia player. If you break one of those three rules, you will be shot in return.
I support a miller claim on day one. If they fail to claim on day one, then they get shot if they claim miller at any point after d1. Millers shouldn't claim night one as it assists the mafia team with blue sniping.
It seems very unlikey that the mafia team has two godfather type roles. Based on the way the shot cooldown works, they would be able to day kill four consecutive days. Combined with the six night kills that come with their deaths and lynches, thats a 2:10 trade, assuming there isn't a SK or town night vig role. I like chaoser's plan of forcing certain players to shoot, but I wouldn't leave it up to them to decide their own target. By shooting early and often, the mafia godfather gets the most out of his role. We shouldn't allow a random player to shoot at will. yeah that's what we kind of came up with. What do we do with people who already broke a rule?  I already mentioned that a claim prior to n0-d1 deadline is helping mafia if they want to bluesnipe and therefore pretty much everyone agreed to make the miller claimes either on the n0->d1 deadline to prevent that or just claim d1 because there's no benefit in claiming n0 from a townie point of view but some from a mafia point of view. Even a late D1 claim is np, It's not like DTs will claim d1 anyways due to sanities. Surely we can't just shoot RoL now that he just claimed some hours ago but I agree that we should hold those standards in general to ensure noones going full retard on the thread in rambo-fashion (sup Wiggles :p)
kill: Toadesstern
Wait...
##Shot: Toadesstern
#Shoot#: Toadesstern
Hmmm, I'll have to work on this.
Seriously, though, I disagree with what VE is saying:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 12 2012 04:14 VisceraEyes wrote:
I'm fine with designating WHO shoots, I'm not so much fine with designating the target. I feel like it will add accountability to whomever is pulling the trigger if we don't designate a target and we can get a better read because of it.
Generally speaking, any game that has more than 1 miller that I've seen has been big games, like the large normals here. That's in general. That being said, I'm ABSOLUTELY NOT ruling out the possibility of there being more than 1 as I have no idea what to expect out of this setup.
I'm for miller claiming whenever - we can decide after the claim whether it makes sense and whether we believe it or not.
I think just forcing people to shoot whoever they want is a bad idea. It means that people will shoot people for bad reasons (like how people vote people for bad reasons, but that doesn't end up with their brains on the floor) and then we'll shoot that person who used the bad reason, and so on. Sure, it makes them 'accountable', but it does so at the expense of making the rest of town not accountable at all for the kill that cycle, and it means we'll most likely be tied up for another cycle dealing with a bad lynch. Really, it sounds like a good way to get some back to back night cycles and end the game early.
So, FoS: VE for pushing that idea twice.
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On June 12 2012 10:50 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 10:35 talismania wrote:I've realized that an idea I had after Space Station might be applicable here. I was saving it up for a game with a mayoral election and PMs, but I then saw that in this game we all get to be mayor! So here's the outlines of the idea. The goal is to catch scum out in the long run by forcing them to post cases, suspicions, etc. Scum operate by feeling out the thread, sensing where discussion is going and nudging it along in a favorable direction or whatever. Blending in and all that jazz. To make it harder for this to happen (and to simultaneously make it so that everyone is playing harder), I came up with this proposal. (1) Everyone has to pick one person to make a case on, for why they think that person is scum. You have to actually make the case, like you're radfield or qatol or whatever. Nice decent-length post. (2) Everyone reveals their case at the same time (a good time would be near daybreak). This is the part that makes it hard for scum to blend in. (3) Note that there's extra information to be had here: who participated and who didn't. And why did the people who didn't participate not do so? (4) We take a look at the cases and go from there. FAQ: What's this good for again?
--Forces participation / thread reading --Forces scum to make their own cases rather than hanging back --Additional information: HOW do people make their cases etc --When someone flips scum, there's a wealth of information to look back on. Who did they make a case on? Who made a case on them? Etc etc How the fuck do you get everyone on the thread at the same time?
--You don't need to. You can post your case before the deadline but encrypt it using http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/javascrypt.html and then post the key later. Yay encryption! What's wrong with just posting our cases as we make them?--Nothing really. That's obviously how every other game is played. But doing it this way can force everyone to play harder, better, etc. See the first question. It's not like posting has to stop until the cases are made or anything. Does it have to be a case on a single person?--All that matters for point (1) above is that it's something agreed to by everyone. It could be a case on a single person. It could be reads on everyone in the game. It could be a top four list of scum contenders. Whatever we think generates the most information. Your point (4) - how do we get from this to a lynch?--Nothing in particular. This acts as an info dump. We can get from it to the shooting however we want. Boohoo it will spam the thread up!
--Suck it up and play the game. Mafia is about reading things and making decisions. If you're concerned about this, then we can all put our encrypted cases in spoiler tags. ___________ I will do this for sure. Anyone with me? I'm not going to wade through walls of bullshit to find scum. If I were on the scumteam I personally would love doing this, as I'd instantly be the most townie motherfucker in the thread. Look at my first post in Mini X if you don't believe me. Right here.Do you have any idea how damaging it is to town to have to wade through walls of completely fabricated text? Even townies will end up fabricating cases just to create fluff if we impose this rule. I know I will, because often times when I run into a scum, it's one or two lines that make or break the read.
Fair point, but if people don't want to wade through walls of shit, then we don't have to make a case. It can be a list of four names, simply. Maybe one sentence for why each is scum.
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On June 12 2012 10:57 talismania wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 10:50 wherebugsgo wrote:On June 12 2012 10:35 talismania wrote:I've realized that an idea I had after Space Station might be applicable here. I was saving it up for a game with a mayoral election and PMs, but I then saw that in this game we all get to be mayor! So here's the outlines of the idea. The goal is to catch scum out in the long run by forcing them to post cases, suspicions, etc. Scum operate by feeling out the thread, sensing where discussion is going and nudging it along in a favorable direction or whatever. Blending in and all that jazz. To make it harder for this to happen (and to simultaneously make it so that everyone is playing harder), I came up with this proposal. (1) Everyone has to pick one person to make a case on, for why they think that person is scum. You have to actually make the case, like you're radfield or qatol or whatever. Nice decent-length post. (2) Everyone reveals their case at the same time (a good time would be near daybreak). This is the part that makes it hard for scum to blend in. (3) Note that there's extra information to be had here: who participated and who didn't. And why did the people who didn't participate not do so? (4) We take a look at the cases and go from there. FAQ: What's this good for again?
--Forces participation / thread reading --Forces scum to make their own cases rather than hanging back --Additional information: HOW do people make their cases etc --When someone flips scum, there's a wealth of information to look back on. Who did they make a case on? Who made a case on them? Etc etc How the fuck do you get everyone on the thread at the same time?
--You don't need to. You can post your case before the deadline but encrypt it using http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/javascrypt.html and then post the key later. Yay encryption! What's wrong with just posting our cases as we make them?--Nothing really. That's obviously how every other game is played. But doing it this way can force everyone to play harder, better, etc. See the first question. It's not like posting has to stop until the cases are made or anything. Does it have to be a case on a single person?--All that matters for point (1) above is that it's something agreed to by everyone. It could be a case on a single person. It could be reads on everyone in the game. It could be a top four list of scum contenders. Whatever we think generates the most information. Your point (4) - how do we get from this to a lynch?--Nothing in particular. This acts as an info dump. We can get from it to the shooting however we want. Boohoo it will spam the thread up!
--Suck it up and play the game. Mafia is about reading things and making decisions. If you're concerned about this, then we can all put our encrypted cases in spoiler tags. ___________ I will do this for sure. Anyone with me? I'm not going to wade through walls of bullshit to find scum. If I were on the scumteam I personally would love doing this, as I'd instantly be the most townie motherfucker in the thread. Look at my first post in Mini X if you don't believe me. Right here.Do you have any idea how damaging it is to town to have to wade through walls of completely fabricated text? Even townies will end up fabricating cases just to create fluff if we impose this rule. I know I will, because often times when I run into a scum, it's one or two lines that make or break the read. Fair point, but if people don't want to wade through walls of shit, then we don't have to make a case. It can be a list of four names, simply. Maybe one sentence for why each is scum.
So effectively you want townie to behave like townies would anyway and scum to appear more townlike than they'd appear otherwise
Nice
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On June 12 2012 10:44 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 10:14 gonzaw wrote:
I don't find him suspicious mostly because of the claim itself (I've never seen scum fake-claim Miller in my whole life, and I doubt I will).
Because the games where self-aware millers are possible on this forum are practically nonexistent.
I played 2 (I think? Or maybe it was just once) games with self-aware Millers on UG and there weren't any fake-claims either.
The rest of your post and filter is just unsubstantiated assumptions (for example, the repeated language toward you assuming RoL is town).
Yeah I'm not really putting too much effort this game for now (other than just coming up with a plan of action).
Mostly because I expect to get shot tonight, so anything I do would basically be pointless (I knew that in pre-game though).
And no, the "real" game hasn't started because there's basically nothing to analyze or to respond to. There aren't any cases, or people's thoughts on other players, and I'm lazy to check each filter to try and gauge a read out of people just by their opinion on the plans presented.
For now I only have a few town reads, and a slight suspicion on Dirkzor for his "eagerness" to show people what to do or correct them but being absent since then.
You also contradict yourself fairly heavily in that you urge specifically for a day 1 miller claim but you seem to have no problem at all with a n0 miller claim
I already posted he fucked up by claiming right now.
But at least he claimed, Miller claim >>>> no Miller claim, whether on N0 or D1
The only bad thing about doing so on N0 is that scum may shoot him....and that's not the end of the world or anything (again like I posted in my previous post
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Mr OMG I HAVE NEVER SEEN A FAKE MILLER CLAIM.
Er... in the one game I've played with self-aware millers (maybe a whole fucking 2!). SO CONCLUSIVE DUDES.
There are also NO CASES despite the fact THERE IS A CASE.
diediedie
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Yeah I'm ignoring you for now marv.
If you really want to shoot me or something at least wait 24 hours into D1 so you don't waste the whole day and so we can put some sense into you.
You are being needlessly aggressive as well, I don't know what's up with that.
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On June 12 2012 11:19 marvellosity wrote:
we need to kill gonzaw
I just might be able to get down with that.
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On June 12 2012 10:58 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 10:57 talismania wrote:On June 12 2012 10:50 wherebugsgo wrote:On June 12 2012 10:35 talismania wrote:I've realized that an idea I had after Space Station might be applicable here. I was saving it up for a game with a mayoral election and PMs, but I then saw that in this game we all get to be mayor! So here's the outlines of the idea. The goal is to catch scum out in the long run by forcing them to post cases, suspicions, etc. Scum operate by feeling out the thread, sensing where discussion is going and nudging it along in a favorable direction or whatever. Blending in and all that jazz. To make it harder for this to happen (and to simultaneously make it so that everyone is playing harder), I came up with this proposal. (1) Everyone has to pick one person to make a case on, for why they think that person is scum. You have to actually make the case, like you're radfield or qatol or whatever. Nice decent-length post. (2) Everyone reveals their case at the same time (a good time would be near daybreak). This is the part that makes it hard for scum to blend in. (3) Note that there's extra information to be had here: who participated and who didn't. And why did the people who didn't participate not do so? (4) We take a look at the cases and go from there. FAQ: What's this good for again?
--Forces participation / thread reading --Forces scum to make their own cases rather than hanging back --Additional information: HOW do people make their cases etc --When someone flips scum, there's a wealth of information to look back on. Who did they make a case on? Who made a case on them? Etc etc How the fuck do you get everyone on the thread at the same time?
--You don't need to. You can post your case before the deadline but encrypt it using http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/javascrypt.html and then post the key later. Yay encryption! What's wrong with just posting our cases as we make them?--Nothing really. That's obviously how every other game is played. But doing it this way can force everyone to play harder, better, etc. See the first question. It's not like posting has to stop until the cases are made or anything. Does it have to be a case on a single person?--All that matters for point (1) above is that it's something agreed to by everyone. It could be a case on a single person. It could be reads on everyone in the game. It could be a top four list of scum contenders. Whatever we think generates the most information. Your point (4) - how do we get from this to a lynch?--Nothing in particular. This acts as an info dump. We can get from it to the shooting however we want. Boohoo it will spam the thread up!
--Suck it up and play the game. Mafia is about reading things and making decisions. If you're concerned about this, then we can all put our encrypted cases in spoiler tags. ___________ I will do this for sure. Anyone with me? I'm not going to wade through walls of bullshit to find scum. If I were on the scumteam I personally would love doing this, as I'd instantly be the most townie motherfucker in the thread. Look at my first post in Mini X if you don't believe me. Right here.Do you have any idea how damaging it is to town to have to wade through walls of completely fabricated text? Even townies will end up fabricating cases just to create fluff if we impose this rule. I know I will, because often times when I run into a scum, it's one or two lines that make or break the read. Fair point, but if people don't want to wade through walls of shit, then we don't have to make a case. It can be a list of four names, simply. Maybe one sentence for why each is scum. So effectively you want townie to behave like townies would anyway and scum to appear more townlike than they'd appear otherwise Nice
=/
You miss the point. Participation doesn't mean scum are acting "more townlike" at all. The strongest information that comes out of it is what happens when someone flips scum. Now there's a repository of information to be gleaned from, as we've instituted a policy requiring everyone to post their reads/cases/top 4 whatever. Furthermore, there's info in HOW the cases or whatever policy is presented. How strongly are they worded - how much do people push what they wrote afterwards?
It gives the people that like to read something to study, and those that want to ignore it can do so too.
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Those that have played with him before, what's RoL's personality? If he's a risk.nuke type then I think that explains his behavior surrounding his claim. If he's a qatol type, then I'd say he's a traitor role or something just trying to stir the pot. I can't see a fake miller claim as GF when GF could just as easily and more safely claim VT.
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On June 12 2012 11:47 talismania wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 10:58 marvellosity wrote:On June 12 2012 10:57 talismania wrote:On June 12 2012 10:50 wherebugsgo wrote:On June 12 2012 10:35 talismania wrote:I've realized that an idea I had after Space Station might be applicable here. I was saving it up for a game with a mayoral election and PMs, but I then saw that in this game we all get to be mayor! So here's the outlines of the idea. The goal is to catch scum out in the long run by forcing them to post cases, suspicions, etc. Scum operate by feeling out the thread, sensing where discussion is going and nudging it along in a favorable direction or whatever. Blending in and all that jazz. To make it harder for this to happen (and to simultaneously make it so that everyone is playing harder), I came up with this proposal. (1) Everyone has to pick one person to make a case on, for why they think that person is scum. You have to actually make the case, like you're radfield or qatol or whatever. Nice decent-length post. (2) Everyone reveals their case at the same time (a good time would be near daybreak). This is the part that makes it hard for scum to blend in. (3) Note that there's extra information to be had here: who participated and who didn't. And why did the people who didn't participate not do so? (4) We take a look at the cases and go from there. FAQ: What's this good for again?
--Forces participation / thread reading --Forces scum to make their own cases rather than hanging back --Additional information: HOW do people make their cases etc --When someone flips scum, there's a wealth of information to look back on. Who did they make a case on? Who made a case on them? Etc etc How the fuck do you get everyone on the thread at the same time?
--You don't need to. You can post your case before the deadline but encrypt it using http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/javascrypt.html and then post the key later. Yay encryption! What's wrong with just posting our cases as we make them?--Nothing really. That's obviously how every other game is played. But doing it this way can force everyone to play harder, better, etc. See the first question. It's not like posting has to stop until the cases are made or anything. Does it have to be a case on a single person?--All that matters for point (1) above is that it's something agreed to by everyone. It could be a case on a single person. It could be reads on everyone in the game. It could be a top four list of scum contenders. Whatever we think generates the most information. Your point (4) - how do we get from this to a lynch?--Nothing in particular. This acts as an info dump. We can get from it to the shooting however we want. Boohoo it will spam the thread up!
--Suck it up and play the game. Mafia is about reading things and making decisions. If you're concerned about this, then we can all put our encrypted cases in spoiler tags. ___________ I will do this for sure. Anyone with me? I'm not going to wade through walls of bullshit to find scum. If I were on the scumteam I personally would love doing this, as I'd instantly be the most townie motherfucker in the thread. Look at my first post in Mini X if you don't believe me. Right here.Do you have any idea how damaging it is to town to have to wade through walls of completely fabricated text? Even townies will end up fabricating cases just to create fluff if we impose this rule. I know I will, because often times when I run into a scum, it's one or two lines that make or break the read. Fair point, but if people don't want to wade through walls of shit, then we don't have to make a case. It can be a list of four names, simply. Maybe one sentence for why each is scum. So effectively you want townie to behave like townies would anyway and scum to appear more townlike than they'd appear otherwise Nice =/ You miss the point. Participation doesn't mean scum are acting "more townlike" at all. The strongest information that comes out of it is what happens when someone flips scum. Now there's a repository of information to be gleaned from, as we've instituted a policy requiring everyone to post their reads/cases/top 4 whatever. Furthermore, there's info in HOW the cases or whatever policy is presented. How strongly are they worded - how much do people push what they wrote afterwards? It gives the people that like to read something to study, and those that want to ignore it can do so too.
Do you think RoL is fake-claiming scum or real Miller?
Do you think I'm scum because I think RoL is real Miller or not?
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On June 12 2012 11:52 talismania wrote:
Those that have played with him before, what's RoL's personality? If he's a risk.nuke type then I think that explains his behavior surrounding his claim. If he's a qatol type, then I'd say he's a traitor role or something just trying to stir the pot. I can't see a fake miller claim as GF when GF could just as easily and more safely claim VT.
I was looking back at previous games of his and at least in the one I was reviewing, he didn't come across as a Qatol type, as I was wondering on his play style as well. I personally don't find his claim any more suspicious than a lot of other activity going on. Lets wait till day phase and see if their are any other Miller claims once, we are sure they have all had ample time we can reevaluate his claim based on how many other people claim. But if he is the only one claiming miller by the end of the day that will be incredibly strong evidence in his favor. If not then we can start addressing the veracity of their respective claims.
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Because I'm so nice gonzaw, I'm just going to lay out a post for other people to read instead of tunnelling you. And I will not be unilaterally shooting you.
To the rest of town: anyway, find below the case against RoL below. Now, the point isn't so much whether you have to agree with all of it, but it is nonetheless a case, consisting of analysis of content of posts, behaviour, and mentality.
+ Show Spoiler +On June 12 2012 09:50 marvellosity wrote:gonzaw, you've just made me read all the setup speculation on Millers. Damn thee. There is so much I do not like about the claim. Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 04:20 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Alright, finished reading.
Any plan that involves millers and role checking is quite stupid. There are so many things that can interfere with proper results that it hinges on nothing. Anyone advocating some sort of role centric plan needs to shut up. It won't work, we don't even know if all the roles in the OP are the only roles in the game, but even from what we can tell it is still a crap shoot and it could only get worse.
I agree with what Chaoser said. If we think someone is scummy, we make them shoot who they think are scummy. If they can't shoot and can't explain themselves then we just kill them. Problem solved. On the off chance the DT figures out his sanity and claims to have found someone a Miller claim CANNOT absolve them. A DT will only get a red check back on non GF roles if his sanity is known. The non GF roles cannot shoot, so they would need to shoot to prove they are a Miller.
That claim can literally never work.
There is only one actual benefit of a Miller claiming in this set up. Hypothetically its day 5, we need to kill a mafia and the DT claims knowing his sanity and has a red check on someone. Assuming that person has NEVER shot during the day then he can now shoot to prove that he is not scum but a Miller. There is no way scum can emulate that play to the point where it would help a Miller to claim earlier on. The only thing that this helps is preventing a cop who knows there alignment to claiming publicly in that one very niche scenario.
In that scenario the N1 Miller claim would save the cop from going public. That is the only benefit. So does that single benefit justify having someone claim Miller? I can't see why someone would ever get shit for claiming Miller. The only mafia benefit to claiming Miller would be to avoid a RC but the only one who can do that is the GF who would get outed by a DT check and would prefer to get DT checked anyway.
The same thing applies to SK's.
Anyone faking Miller would eventually just get outed by some means and its not worth it. So I guess there is only that one benefit, but there is no real drawback besides people wasting time speculating on why someone claimed Miller.
But hey, since I outlined all the reasons above and there are no true drawbacks, might as well claim that I'm a Miller. Green text: Outlines in some depth how little benefit there is to Miller claiming in this setup. He calls the benefit a 'very niche' scenario. Red text: Having outlined why it's barely beneficial if at all to claim Miller, he leaps into categorically saying no-one should give miller claims any shit. Claims at the end he 'outlined all the reasons'. All the reasons? He clarified himself it would only help in a 'very niche scenario'. What gives? He then says mafia have no reason to fakeclaim miller. He's actively pushing this to discredit the notion. Blue text: Also see post below, but this looks like an attempt to halt any discussion of his miller claim. Because we're so busy on Night 0, right? Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 06:05 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On June 12 2012 04:55 FreelanceSatan wrote:On June 12 2012 04:37 chaoser wrote:
Isn't it Night 0? As in mafia get to do night kills if they want to? why did RoL claim miller already... yeah i didnt even think about that..looks like he jumped the gun a bit there.. what are the chances the mafia would want to shoot him instead of shooting for blues tho? It's not really a big deal. Half the reason I considered not claiming at all was just because I didn't think it was worth considering whether or not I was a Miller. I am sure if I continue being alive they will try to make me suspciious because of that. Or killing me, whatever. There is a chance that a medic could be on me because I claimed and they would be wasting their first hit. There is a number of things they have to take into account. Ultimately, I'm not really worried and whether I die or not its not that big of a deal. Again with the blue text, pushing the idea that talking about his claim is a bad thing. To the bold and underlined: twice he says his claim is not a big deal. More language in the middle with 'or killing me, whatever'. Basically totally flippant and acting unconcerned about it. Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 06:06 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On June 12 2012 04:58 Toadesstern wrote:On June 12 2012 04:55 FreelanceSatan wrote:On June 12 2012 04:37 chaoser wrote:
Isn't it Night 0? As in mafia get to do night kills if they want to? why did RoL claim miller already... yeah i didnt even think about that..looks like he jumped the gun a bit there.. what are the chances the mafia would want to shoot him instead of shooting for blues tho? about 0. I actually thought there's no way that's really a claim because that would be stupid. Maybe it's a trick to survive d0? :p Let's start the wifom machine lol. And here comes that suspicion thing I was talking about. It's the only downside I perceived of claiming regardless of timing. Idiots will always over-analyze shit for no reason. However that wasn't something I could articulate without just saying people are dumb and we can't work around them being suspicious of a miller claim regardless of how illogical it is for any non-town person to do it. Look at the change in tone! From his original claim with his "hey, I guess I'll claim miller" casual attitude and subsequent post with the 'whatevers' and 'it's not a big deal' he fucking jumps down Toad's throat. Now he's again pushing the idea that even talking about his claim is a bad thing. He admits here that he forsaw people being suspicious of the claim. Yet in his original post, the only 'benefit' he saw was with a very niche day 5 cop scenario. RoL said elsewhere in his filter that we should be working off behavioural analysis. I agree. I'm not questioning the claim because he claimed Miller, I'm questioning how he's gone about it. Scum. On June 12 2012 10:06 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 09:50 marvellosity wrote:gonzaw, you've just made me read all the setup speculation on Millers. Damn thee. There is so much I do not like about the claim. On June 12 2012 04:20 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Alright, finished reading.
Any plan that involves millers and role checking is quite stupid. There are so many things that can interfere with proper results that it hinges on nothing. Anyone advocating some sort of role centric plan needs to shut up. It won't work, we don't even know if all the roles in the OP are the only roles in the game, but even from what we can tell it is still a crap shoot and it could only get worse.
I agree with what Chaoser said. If we think someone is scummy, we make them shoot who they think are scummy. If they can't shoot and can't explain themselves then we just kill them. Problem solved. On the off chance the DT figures out his sanity and claims to have found someone a Miller claim CANNOT absolve them. A DT will only get a red check back on non GF roles if his sanity is known. The non GF roles cannot shoot, so they would need to shoot to prove they are a Miller.
That claim can literally never work.
There is only one actual benefit of a Miller claiming in this set up. Hypothetically its day 5, we need to kill a mafia and the DT claims knowing his sanity and has a red check on someone. Assuming that person has NEVER shot during the day then he can now shoot to prove that he is not scum but a Miller. There is no way scum can emulate that play to the point where it would help a Miller to claim earlier on. The only thing that this helps is preventing a cop who knows there alignment to claiming publicly in that one very niche scenario.
In that scenario the N1 Miller claim would save the cop from going public. That is the only benefit. So does that single benefit justify having someone claim Miller? I can't see why someone would ever get shit for claiming Miller. The only mafia benefit to claiming Miller would be to avoid a RC but the only one who can do that is the GF who would get outed by a DT check and would prefer to get DT checked anyway.
The same thing applies to SK's.
Anyone faking Miller would eventually just get outed by some means and its not worth it. So I guess there is only that one benefit, but there is no real drawback besides people wasting time speculating on why someone claimed Miller.
But hey, since I outlined all the reasons above and there are no true drawbacks, might as well claim that I'm a Miller. Green text: Outlines in some depth how little benefit there is to Miller claiming in this setup. He calls the benefit a 'very niche' scenario. Red text: Having outlined why it's barely beneficial if at all to claim Miller, he leaps into categorically saying no-one should give miller claims any shit. Claims at the end he 'outlined all the reasons'. All the reasons? He clarified himself it would only help in a 'very niche scenario'. What gives? He then says mafia have no reason to fakeclaim miller. He's actively pushing this to discredit the notion. Blue text: Also see post below, but this looks like an attempt to halt any discussion of his miller claim. Because we're so busy on Night 0, right? On June 12 2012 06:05 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On June 12 2012 04:55 FreelanceSatan wrote:On June 12 2012 04:37 chaoser wrote:
Isn't it Night 0? As in mafia get to do night kills if they want to? why did RoL claim miller already... yeah i didnt even think about that..looks like he jumped the gun a bit there.. what are the chances the mafia would want to shoot him instead of shooting for blues tho? It's not really a big deal. Half the reason I considered not claiming at all was just because I didn't think it was worth considering whether or not I was a Miller. I am sure if I continue being alive they will try to make me suspciious because of that. Or killing me, whatever. There is a chance that a medic could be on me because I claimed and they would be wasting their first hit. There is a number of things they have to take into account. Ultimately, I'm not really worried and whether I die or not its not that big of a deal. Again with the blue text, pushing the idea that talking about his claim is a bad thing. To the bold and underlined: twice he says his claim is not a big deal. More language in the middle with 'or killing me, whatever'. Basically totally flippant and acting unconcerned about it. On June 12 2012 06:06 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On June 12 2012 04:58 Toadesstern wrote:On June 12 2012 04:55 FreelanceSatan wrote:On June 12 2012 04:37 chaoser wrote:
Isn't it Night 0? As in mafia get to do night kills if they want to? why did RoL claim miller already... yeah i didnt even think about that..looks like he jumped the gun a bit there.. what are the chances the mafia would want to shoot him instead of shooting for blues tho? about 0. I actually thought there's no way that's really a claim because that would be stupid. Maybe it's a trick to survive d0? :p Let's start the wifom machine lol. And here comes that suspicion thing I was talking about. It's the only downside I perceived of claiming regardless of timing. Idiots will always over-analyze shit for no reason. However that wasn't something I could articulate without just saying people are dumb and we can't work around them being suspicious of a miller claim regardless of how illogical it is for any non-town person to do it. Look at the change in tone! From his original claim with his "hey, I guess I'll claim miller" casual attitude and subsequent post with the 'whatevers' and 'it's not a big deal' he fucking jumps down Toad's throat. Now he's again pushing the idea that even talking about his claim is a bad thing. He admits here that he forsaw people being suspicious of the claim. Yet in his original post, the only 'benefit' he saw was with a very niche day 5 cop scenario. RoL said elsewhere in his filter that we should be working off behavioural analysis. I agree. I'm not questioning the claim because he claimed Miller, I'm questioning how he's gone about it. Scum. Yeah I totally agree here. That claim was really weird and as mentioned I wasn't even sure if it was a claim or a joke along the lines "well might as well claim miller" just to say a couple posts "...lol if I actually were a miller". The one thing that got to my attention the most was obviously the last part you quoted because he was jumping down my very own throat for saying that claim is stupid and he should have claimed on the deadline or d1. Here's the thing, he said himself the only downside to this (besides helping mafia bluesnipe, which he totally ignores although mentioned by me two times and by kita once) is idiots calling him suspicious on that one and he forsaw people being "stupid". Again, this just makes no sense from a townie point of view. If he thinks I'm someone overanalyzing something, that's a fucking great towntell. Why is he willing to shoot me for that one. He's basicly calling me an incredible paranoid townie that keeps overthinkin stuff a lot and concludes in shooting me. That's not making sense at all. On June 12 2012 10:11 marvellosity wrote:
Fairly likely he'd be GF yea.
To toad: I agree totally with the mentality and actually came back to the thread to make an EBWOP about it. A townie miller would be well aware that claiming miller would arise suspicion and discussion. VE was a townie miller claiming day 1 recently and he openly admitted that he would be scrutinised for it.
I don't see the townie mentality for multiple times casting suspicion on anyone wanting to think about the claim. He very specifically says there are no drawbacks in his claim post. No, townie miller would know that was a drawback and be upfront about it. On June 12 2012 10:13 marvellosity wrote:
Effectively he's saying anyone suspecting him is probably mafia. No no no no no. NOT townie mentality. Trying to deflect attention scum mentality.
This is gonzaw's follow-up post:
On June 12 2012 10:14 gonzaw wrote:
I don't find him suspicious mostly because of the claim itself (I've never seen scum fake-claim Miller in my whole life, and I doubt I will).
We can force him to shoot and have trackers/watchers/cops (not all of them at the same time of course) on him to determine if he's GF or not.
As in, we force him to shoot someone of our (town) liking, with voting and shit, not just someone he randomly wants to shoot (like he says he'll shoot Toad).
Of course he'll have to follow this or we'll just shoot him the next day for being a scummy scum/rogue.
If he's really GF he'll be alive for quite a while (and obviously under quite scrutiny like he's under now) so I doubt he can get away with it (again, like I said in my other Miller post).
gonzaw completely ignores anything to do with the behaviour, content and mentality, because he has 'never seen scum fake-claim miller in his whole life'. His speculation on how to confirm or otherwise RoL is equally weak, as I note here:
On June 12 2012 10:23 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 10:14 gonzaw wrote:
I don't find him suspicious mostly because of the claim itself (I've never seen scum fake-claim Miller in my whole life, and I doubt I will).
We can force him to shoot and have trackers/watchers/cops (not all of them at the same time of course) on him to determine if he's GF or not.
As in, we force him to shoot someone of our (town) liking, with voting and shit, not just someone he randomly wants to shoot (like he says he'll shoot Toad).
Of course he'll have to follow this or we'll just shoot him the next day for being a scummy scum/rogue.
If he's really GF he'll be alive for quite a while (and obviously under quite scrutiny like he's under now) so I doubt he can get away with it (again, like I said in my other Miller post).
For someone who likes his setup speculation this is some weak shit. We have no idea what roles we have and if they can come close to confirming anything. Watchers doesn't even make sense. Scum have 1 KP and they'd send their GF? Doesn't make sense either, what does a tracker do. Cop takes forever to confirm sanity and he can't keep checking RoL. Towns very rarely lynch mafia day 1 so forcing him to do anything is probably going to lead to a townie death regardless and will confirm nothing of his alignment. Anyway guys, RoL, gonzaw...
On June 12 2012 10:30 gonzaw wrote:
The "real" game hasn't started yet (the analysis and shit), so there's really no behaviour that can convince me Rol is GF (like I said his claim alone makes me think its legit).
There is no analysis yet despite the fact there is analysis.
On June 12 2012 11:03 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 10:44 wherebugsgo wrote:On June 12 2012 10:14 gonzaw wrote:
I don't find him suspicious mostly because of the claim itself (I've never seen scum fake-claim Miller in my whole life, and I doubt I will).
Because the games where self-aware millers are possible on this forum are practically nonexistent. I played 2 (I think? Or maybe it was just once) games with self-aware Millers on UG and there weren't any fake-claims either. Show nested quote +The rest of your post and filter is just unsubstantiated assumptions (for example, the repeated language toward you assuming RoL is town). And no, the "real" game hasn't started because there's basically nothing to analyze or to respond to. There aren't any cases, or people's thoughts on other players, and I'm lazy to check each filter to try and gauge a read out of people just by their opinion on the plans presented. For now I only have a few town reads, and a slight suspicion on Dirkzor for his "eagerness" to show people what to do or correct them but being absent since then. Show nested quote +You also contradict yourself fairly heavily in that you urge specifically for a day 1 miller claim but you seem to have no problem at all with a n0 miller claim I already posted he fucked up by claiming right now. But at least he claimed, Miller claim >>>> no Miller claim, whether on N0 or D1 The only bad thing about doing so on N0 is that scum may shoot him....and that's not the end of the world or anything (again like I posted in my previous post
wbg points out the fact that there are almost never self-aware millers for him to reference. gonzaw is forced to accept this and says he has played in at most 2, if not only 1, game with self-aware millers.
So gonzaw ignores all the analysis of RoL's behaviour because he has played in at most 2 games where miller wasn't fake-claimed. He doesn't even bother actually looking at the content of the posts, and dismisses the case multiple times with "there haven't been analysis or cases yet". Yet his sole reason for dismissing was his 1 or 2 out of how many games he's played with self-aware millers.
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On June 11 2012 16:10 supersoft wrote:
lol okay, now I got it. This setup is perfect for me.
Ahm let's discuss the dayshooting:
Should VTs shoot day1, to maximize their number of KP?
If this setup is perfect for you, how come you are even asking if VTs should shoot d1? It's quite obvious in my opinion that they should, as it's our only reliable way of killing scum. No lynches in this game, as can be seen from the op. So why would we want to give the scum + a possible SK a free night to kill townies with? 4 Mafia in the game, can't be that hard trying to find one, especially as we start from N0, we will have something to go by on D1.
On June 11 2012 17:25 gonzaw wrote:
Please everybody don't make a L plan to shoot a townie 5 minutes into D1.
If you think someone is scum and really want to shoot them...you can always shoot them later (if everybody follows this trail of thought we'll have normal days).
The thing is, we can't be sitting on our asses waiting until we are absolutely mod-confirmedly certain about scum. Of course no-one should take hasty decisions by themselves, but if the discussion isn't going anywhere and we can't agree on a target, I'd much rather see someone take the initiative than sit around wondering what to do until it's too late.
On June 12 2012 01:03 chaoser wrote:
If they can shoot, they are not one of the three regular mafia.
You seem to be certain in your claim that there are three regular mafia. Explain?
On June 12 2012 01:05 Toadesstern wrote:
We need to play normal instead of focussing on millers because frankly with framers and gfs running around I don't see an easy way to figure them out.
Same question to you. Earlier you were like you didn't know there could be additional/modified roles than the ones listed in the OP, and now you seem like you are taking a framer for certain. How come?
Regarding RoL's miller claim, at the moment I'd prefer to see him take the shot late tomorrow if he survives the night, with reasons why he chose that specific target (whomever he picks, if we proceed with the miller-takes-the-shot-plan.) Obviously in my opinion even though he should be the one suggesting his target, we should not let him get away if he decides to take a random shot at someone most of the town does not agree with, especially if it's not backed up with arguments.
On June 12 2012 05:58 supersoft wrote:
Wish i was VT. Maybe I am... Maybe not...
And the point of this is? Maybe you'd like to take a shot at someone?
On June 12 2012 06:04 supersoft wrote:
If I was VT, I would agree on that. Moreover would I assure, that I will shoot anyone that shoots townies without discussion.
And 6 minutes later you claim not VT. I'll let everyone make their own assumptions about this.
@ wbg, more useful content please.
+ Show Spoiler +On June 12 2012 07:56 kitaman27 wrote:
If you shoot five minutes into the game, you will be shot day two.
If you shoot within the first 24 hours of a cycle, you will be shot the following cycle
If you shoot without the town's consensus, you will be shot
I don't care if you shoot a mafia player. If you break one of those three rules, you will be shot in return.
By shooting early and often, the mafia godfather gets the most out of his role. We shouldn't allow a random player to shoot at will.
I agree with these points.
On June 12 2012 08:48 gonzaw wrote:Anyways, damn, I really want to start some analysis, but this whole night is just a bunch of discussion about plans
If you want to start doing some analysis, you should stop writing about possible plans yourself. Seems kind of contradictory to me. This nightphase is by no means just discussion about plans, in my opinion it is very well possible to analyze someone's behavior already. (Of course a larger sample size is always better, but sometimes you can get a good start with just a little.)
Adding to what you were talking about medics, if they find out that they are insane, they should stop protecting VT's unless the 50% chance is crucial for our survival and still having a shot at winning the game for town.
Marv makes a small analysis post on RoL's miller claim, Toad performs the bandwagon jump surprisingly fast, I do not like.
On June 12 2012 10:30 gonzaw wrote:Yeah I got carried away when I mentioned the watcher  He's under scrutiny just by claiming Miller. Mafia may take the chance to shoot him tonight or on N1 just because of the reasons I presented previously. The "real" game hasn't started yet (the analysis and shit), so there's really no behaviour that can convince me Rol is GF (like I said his claim alone makes me think its legit). Anyways I gotta eat so I'll expand later
Everyone should be under scrutiny. Not just someone claiming Miller. I don't like how you state that the real game hasn't started yet, and you give an absolute "There is really no behaviour that can convince me RoL is GF", just because in your opinion the game hasn't started yet?
+ Show Spoiler +On June 12 2012 10:35 talismania wrote:I've realized that an idea I had after Space Station might be applicable here. I was saving it up for a game with a mayoral election and PMs, but I then saw that in this game we all get to be mayor! So here's the outlines of the idea. The goal is to catch scum out in the long run by forcing them to post cases, suspicions, etc. Scum operate by feeling out the thread, sensing where discussion is going and nudging it along in a favorable direction or whatever. Blending in and all that jazz. To make it harder for this to happen (and to simultaneously make it so that everyone is playing harder), I came up with this proposal. (1) Everyone has to pick one person to make a case on, for why they think that person is scum. You have to actually make the case, like you're radfield or qatol or whatever. Nice decent-length post. (2) Everyone reveals their case at the same time (a good time would be near daybreak). This is the part that makes it hard for scum to blend in. (3) Note that there's extra information to be had here: who participated and who didn't. And why did the people who didn't participate not do so? (4) We take a look at the cases and go from there. FAQ: What's this good for again?
--Forces participation / thread reading --Forces scum to make their own cases rather than hanging back --Additional information: HOW do people make their cases etc --When someone flips scum, there's a wealth of information to look back on. Who did they make a case on? Who made a case on them? Etc etc How the fuck do you get everyone on the thread at the same time?
--You don't need to. You can post your case before the deadline but encrypt it using http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/javascrypt.html and then post the key later. Yay encryption! What's wrong with just posting our cases as we make them?--Nothing really. That's obviously how every other game is played. But doing it this way can force everyone to play harder, better, etc. See the first question. It's not like posting has to stop until the cases are made or anything. Does it have to be a case on a single person?--All that matters for point (1) above is that it's something agreed to by everyone. It could be a case on a single person. It could be reads on everyone in the game. It could be a top four list of scum contenders. Whatever we think generates the most information. Your point (4) - how do we get from this to a lynch?--Nothing in particular. This acts as an info dump. We can get from it to the shooting however we want. Boohoo it will spam the thread up!
--Suck it up and play the game. Mafia is about reading things and making decisions. If you're concerned about this, then we can all put our encrypted cases in spoiler tags. ___________ I will do this for sure. Anyone with me?
This is totally unrelated and unnecessary in my opinion. Why would we need such special case plans to find out who's scum? Just play like the game is usually played. If you think someone is scum, make a case, or convince others why that someone is scum. Random ideas for how we should play the game are not needed, concentrate on scumhunting instead of making these. Weak start.
+ Show Spoiler +On June 12 2012 11:03 gonzaw wrote:
Yeah I'm not really putting too much effort this game for now (other than just coming up with a plan of action).
Why not? You talked about how you want to get to analyze stuff but then you keep just talking about random plans when you didn't really want to. That doesn't make any sense to me. Where's the enthusiasm?
Mostly because I expect to get shot tonight, so anything I do would basically be pointless (I knew that in pre-game though).
.... I don't even know what to say to this. You don't even know your role pre-game, why would you expect to get shot on N0 before the game has even started? I don't like that attitude at all. You can't play mafia going into the game thinking "I'm going to die soon anyway so anything I do is pointless." You have to make the best out of it while you are alive. If you die and are a townie, you better have made the time you were alive count for your teammates to take the game for you.
And no, the "real" game hasn't started because there's basically nothing to analyze or to respond to. There aren't any cases, or people's thoughts on other players, and I'm lazy to check each filter to try and gauge a read out of people just by their opinion on the plans presented.
Every post is analyzable or respondable. It may not be useful in every case, but there is certainly a lot to go by already. If there aren't any cases, you can make one. If people don't post their thoughts yet, you can ask for them. What's up with this sudden lazyness of yours?
My points to gonzaw in bolded.
Another thing I would like to point out is that there is a possibility that we have an SK in the game which can be bulletproof. The only threat for the SK are daykills, (or maybe an insane medic protection can kill at night, not sure?), which basically means that if there is an SK, he/she will most likely want to shoot at town, to lessen the overall KP. If the mafia has only 1 daykiller (GF), like most people seem to suspect, the SK only needs to ensure that the GF is dead if there are no other mafia roles to threaten him, which means he could win in an 1vs3 mafia situation. Because that I think it is very likely that the SK will be shooting into town (+ Mafia GF, which the town wants dead also)...
I ask all players to keep an eye out for a possible SK. This should NOT override all the other scumhunting going on, just one possibility that is important to keep an eye on in my opinion.
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On June 12 2012 12:18 marvellosity wrote:
Because I'm so nice gonzaw, I'm just going to lay out a post for other people to read instead of tunnelling you. And I will not be unilaterally shooting you.
I don't like your passive-aggressiveness there, but okay I'll respond to it.
It will make a fine start to discuss and take sides though.
gonzaw completely ignores anything to do with the behaviour, content and mentality, because he has 'never seen scum fake-claim miller in his whole life'. His speculation on how to confirm or otherwise RoL is equally weak, as I note here:
I basically saw your case as nitpicking.what RoL said and didn't hold much water.
RoL specifically said there were benefits in claiming Miller N1 (I think he meant N0, the one we are at now), which were basically having the cop not publicly claim if he were to check him later.
I didn't see anything wrong with what he said, even though it seemed confusing at times (like he was at times berating "plans" regarding Millers and discussions about it, but intertwined it with the benefits of actually claiming).
Even if his behaviour was "suspicious" in some way, I'd be glad to ignore it until D1, or until the "real game started" (like I put it), where RoL has to contribute himself, present cases, reads, etc.
I made a thorough post on why I thought no scum would claim Miller at all, so yeah as soon as he claimed I didn't take much notice of it and didn't doubt it initially.
VE received similar flak when he claimed Miller (with people instantly FoSing him when he did), and that only served to clutter when (because of reasons previously explained) heuristics just show that he's likely town.
I actually asked you that thing about RoL because I found you somewhat shady (with your initial aggressiveness and nonchalance in a matter of speaking) , saw that you were talking about Millers and stuff and thus wanted your reaction to it.
Before you go asking me what I think of your reaction....I do find it weird indeed. You seem too aggressive, too aggressive compared to the previous games I've played with you.
Is there anything specific that made you play like this?
So gonzaw ignores all the analysis of RoL's behaviour because he has played in at most 2 games where miller wasn't fake-claimed. He doesn't even bother actually looking at the content of the posts, and dismisses the case multiple times with "there haven't been analysis or cases yet". Yet his sole reason for dismissing was his 1 or 2 out of how many games he's played with self-aware millers.
Yes basically that, and because of all the reasons I previously stated on why I think the real GF wouldn't actually claim Miller at all.
Saying my "sole" reason for dismissing it is quite an exageration though, considering I've been talking about Miller claims, their benefits and likelihood since my first post or so since the game started.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
On June 12 2012 12:42 gonzaw wrote:
[
Yes basically that, and because of all the reasons I previously stated on why I think the real GF wouldn't actually claim Miller at all.
Saying my "sole" reason for dismissing it is quite an exageration though, considering I've been talking about Miller claims, their benefits and likelihood since my first post or so since the game started.
Yes, it is interesting, given your view on this.
On June 12 2012 10:14 gonzaw wrote:
I don't find him suspicious mostly because of the claim itself (I've never seen scum fake-claim Miller in my whole life, and I doubt I will).
That seems to be your view, that it's practically impossible.
Funny then, that your first major post is entirely about discussing millers and the possibilities of scum fake-claiming.
+ Show Spoiler +On June 11 2012 17:25 gonzaw wrote:Please everybody don't make a L plan to shoot a townie 5 minutes into D1. If you think someone is scum and really want to shoot them...you can always shoot them later (if everybody follows this trail of thought we'll have normal days). Okay people, if we have a Miller, do they claim tonight or tomorrow? If they claim tonight, and we have a cop the cop won't check them, but if they don't claim tonight there' s a chance the cop will. If they claim tonight however, there's a chance scum will shoot them because of their "semi-confirmed" status (i.e scum never fake-claim Miller, so someone claiming Miller is 80% telling the truth). Oh wait, here's the plan: Miller, as soon as D1 starts, claim and you'll be the one in charge of shooting on D1My plan goes like this: First of all, a Miller claim will avoid a cop checking him subsequent nights. Second, the Miller can shoot at day, therefore we can use him to choose the D1 shot. Third, like said before the Miller is "semi-confirmed" because in average scum never fake-claim Miller, and they will most likely not do it today. Why? Because then the Godfather will be the one forced to fake-claimSince the plan is for the Miller to shoot on D1, and the only scum that can do so is the GF, then only him can fake-claim Miller (if any other scum claims Miller, they'll get instantly caught once they refuse to shoot). So, let's imagine the GF fake-claims Miller, what then? Then there is another Miller or there isn't: 1) There is another Miller claim:Then there will be a counterclaim; and one of them will basically be confirmed scum (the chances of 2 Millers is EXTREMELY low). We then let them shoot each other. If the real Miller is faster, great he'll shoot the GF and we'll live happily ever after. If the GF is faster, well then we can kill the GF the next day/night. 2) There is no other Miller claim:In this case, although we may take him as "confirmed" for a while, he'll be in the spotlight for quite a while. Not only that, we can make a tracker track him at night, that way we can catch him as GF. After we get rid of the GF, then catching the remaining scum will be easy if we all claim if we have a gun (and can shoot) or not. Those that claim they have a gun take turns in shooting each day (to actually confirm they have a gun) into the group that claimed they didn't have a gun (of course shooting those we think are actually scum from that group, not shooting our freaking blues >_>). So, if the GF claims Miller there is a high chance he'll get fucked, therefore I don't think he will. Therefore I think we can trust a Miller claim tomorrow, and in the worst case we'll get a tracker on him at N2. So people, this is the plan I was thinking of, do you agree or not?: To Miller:- If someone else already claimed Miller, he's GF so shoot him (and claim Miller in the process)
- If nobody claimed Miller, then claim Miller
- After you do, we'll discuss normally and you'll decide the shot, preferably with town consensus, so don't go rogue on our asses.
To Town:- No VT shoot until a Miller claims, or until 24 or more hours have passed (to give the Miller time to claim)
- Everybody, just discuss, scumhunt and catch some filthy scum for the Miller to shoot at
To Tracker the next night:If we don't have any Millers it will be apparent soon (before the 24 hours or so) since everybody will post but there will be no claim. If that happens, then after the 24 or so hours normal VTs are allowed to shoot. The purpose of this plan is: - Out the Miller so we have a "semi-confirmed" townie, and so Cops don't check him at night
- Either basically catch the GF if he fake-claims, or have the Miller as confirmed townie (after the tracker tracks him)
- If we catch the GF; then the rest of the game will be easy as pie
- If we don't, then we'll have a "confirmed" townie in the Miller by D2
- When D1 starts, we are guaranteed to have time to discuss and not have a random VT shoot 10 minutes into the day, because we'll be waiting for a Miller to claim
- When a Miller claims, he'll be the one in charge of the shot so we'll be sure no shenanigans and weird stuff happen (like 2 guys fighting each other and one randomly shooting the other one)
Of course this means everybody would follow the plan (those that have a gun and those that don't), so we are guaranteed to have some D1 time to discuss So people, what do you think? Observation:Maybe the SK can fake-claim Miller, since he can shoot at Day. However, the SK is forced to shoot at night, therefore a tracker on him WILL catch him. Also, since a "confirmed" Miller is bad reputation for scum, scum are likely to shoot the Miller claim, so the chances of scum shooting the SK will increase, blowing his cover once he survives the hit (and no medic claims his save). Basically, the SK fake-claiming Miller will let us/scum catch him sooner or later, and doing so to get the D1 shot (why would he want the D1 shot?) and a little confirmed status for a while isn't worth it for him. Observation2:There is a chance we don't have a tracker. In which case we can't confirm the Miller. First of all, the point is that scum don't know if we have a tracker either, so by having the GF fake-claim Miller they risk we actually having one. Second, even if we don't have a tracker, the GF will still be in the spotlight, because town will assume the tracker tracked him and got a "good" result (i.e that he didn't visit anyone), but the "Miller" claim will keep being alive throughout the whole game. This will mean that one day or the other the Miller-fake-claiming-Godfather will fall; so again it's not very convenient for him to do so
That's an awful lot of effort to go to to explain something you think will never happen 'in your lifetime', don't you think?
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On June 12 2012 12:34 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 08:48 gonzaw wrote:Anyways, damn, I really want to start some analysis, but this whole night is just a bunch of discussion about plans If you want to start doing some analysis, you should stop writing about possible plans yourself. Seems kind of contradictory to me. This nightphase is by no means just discussion about plans, in my opinion it is very well possible to analyze someone's behavior already. (Of course a larger sample size is always better, but sometimes you can get a good start with just a little.) Adding to what you were talking about medics, if they find out that they are insane, they should stop protecting VT's unless the 50% chance is crucial for our survival and still having a shot at winning the game for town.
I personally don't find people's opinion on certain plans (or policy lynches, etc) alignment telling at all. So no matter how much someone talks and talks about plans, I can't analyze their alignment based on their behaviour, if everybody else is discussing plans as well.
Also I was lazy so I didn't want to filter everybody and try to find subtle hints of scumminess (I did do it later and found Dirkzor slighly suspicious, and marv a little bit as well).
On June 12 2012 12:34 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 10:30 gonzaw wrote:Yeah I got carried away when I mentioned the watcher He's under scrutiny just by claiming Miller. Mafia may take the chance to shoot him tonight or on N1 just because of the reasons I presented previously. The "real" game hasn't started yet (the analysis and shit), so there's really no behaviour that can convince me Rol is GF (like I said his claim alone makes me think its legit). Anyways I gotta eat so I'll expand later Everyone should be under scrutiny. Not just someone claiming Miller. I don't like how you state that the real game hasn't started yet, and you give an absolute "There is really no behaviour that can convince me RoL is GF", just because in your opinion the game hasn't started yet?
Someone claiming Miller will obviously be in the spotlight. I never said he shouldn't be under more scrutiny than someone else, I said that he just was by the nature of his claim, the way it brings attention to himself and sparks people to analyze his actions and behaviour more thoroughly to figure out if he's lying or not.
Yes, there is no game-related "behaviour" from RoL to convince me he's GF. RoL hasn't accused anybody yet. He hasn't commented on other cases yet either.
He hasn't been part in discussion about other players' behaviour either, and yet he hasn't been absent from those either.
The only thing he did was give his opinion on some setup talk, about Miller plans, and claimed Miller. There's no way you can figure out his alignment with that, because (like I said) it's not alignment-telling.
Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 11:03 gonzaw wrote:
Yeah I'm not really putting too much effort this game for now (other than just coming up with a plan of action). Why not? You talked about how you want to get to analyze stuff but then you keep just talking about random plans when you didn't really want to. That doesn't make any sense to me. Where's the enthusiasm?
...because I'm not?
Really? What kind of question is that?
I was lazy, had to do some work for uni, was spending time and effort in the other mafia game I am, and wasn't in the mood to put a lot of effort in this game, specially since there wasn't much to motivate me to do so (i.e there weren't any meaningful discussions going on, just talk about the setup).
Show nested quote +Mostly because I expect to get shot tonight, so anything I do would basically be pointless (I knew that in pre-game though). .... I don't even know what to say to this. You don't even know your role pre-game, why would you expect to get shot on N0 before the game has even started? I don't like that attitude at all. You can't play mafia going into the game thinking "I'm going to die soon anyway so anything I do is pointless." You have to make the best out of it while you are alive. If you die and are a townie, you better have made the time you were alive count for your teammates to take the game for you.
Because I had the feeling I would. I've been shot N1 in 2 out of 3 games I've been town...and in like 90% of the games I've been town in UG mafia.
Knowing that and knowing that there wasn't going to be any meaningful discussion going on (that wasn't related to the setup) it just disheartens you a little bit and doesn't put you in the right mood.
Show nested quote +And no, the "real" game hasn't started because there's basically nothing to analyze or to respond to. There aren't any cases, or people's thoughts on other players, and I'm lazy to check each filter to try and gauge a read out of people just by their opinion on the plans presented. Every post is analyzable or respondable. It may not be useful in every case, but there is certainly a lot to go by already. If there aren't any cases, you can make one. If people don't post their thoughts yet, you can ask for them. What's up with this sudden lazyness of yours?
See above.
Again, I don't think plan posts and opinions are alignment telling at all (without taking into account their context. If someone is still talking about plans in D3 of course you can analyze it).
Also, nice of you to bring up the usual "pro-town" speech that's brought up D1 every game (or N0 this one).
What do you think of marv's aggressiveness towards RoL and me Cephiro?
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On June 12 2012 12:52 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 12:42 gonzaw wrote:
[
Yes basically that, and because of all the reasons I previously stated on why I think the real GF wouldn't actually claim Miller at all.
Saying my "sole" reason for dismissing it is quite an exageration though, considering I've been talking about Miller claims, their benefits and likelihood since my first post or so since the game started. Yes, it is interesting, given your view on this. Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 10:14 gonzaw wrote:
I don't find him suspicious mostly because of the claim itself (I've never seen scum fake-claim Miller in my whole life, and I doubt I will).
That seems to be your view, that it's practically impossible. Funny then, that your first major post is entirely about discussing millers and the possibilities of scum fake-claiming. + Show Spoiler +On June 11 2012 17:25 gonzaw wrote:Please everybody don't make a L plan to shoot a townie 5 minutes into D1. If you think someone is scum and really want to shoot them...you can always shoot them later (if everybody follows this trail of thought we'll have normal days). Okay people, if we have a Miller, do they claim tonight or tomorrow? If they claim tonight, and we have a cop the cop won't check them, but if they don't claim tonight there' s a chance the cop will. If they claim tonight however, there's a chance scum will shoot them because of their "semi-confirmed" status (i.e scum never fake-claim Miller, so someone claiming Miller is 80% telling the truth). Oh wait, here's the plan: Miller, as soon as D1 starts, claim and you'll be the one in charge of shooting on D1My plan goes like this: First of all, a Miller claim will avoid a cop checking him subsequent nights. Second, the Miller can shoot at day, therefore we can use him to choose the D1 shot. Third, like said before the Miller is "semi-confirmed" because in average scum never fake-claim Miller, and they will most likely not do it today. Why? Because then the Godfather will be the one forced to fake-claimSince the plan is for the Miller to shoot on D1, and the only scum that can do so is the GF, then only him can fake-claim Miller (if any other scum claims Miller, they'll get instantly caught once they refuse to shoot). So, let's imagine the GF fake-claims Miller, what then? Then there is another Miller or there isn't: 1) There is another Miller claim:Then there will be a counterclaim; and one of them will basically be confirmed scum (the chances of 2 Millers is EXTREMELY low). We then let them shoot each other. If the real Miller is faster, great he'll shoot the GF and we'll live happily ever after. If the GF is faster, well then we can kill the GF the next day/night. 2) There is no other Miller claim:In this case, although we may take him as "confirmed" for a while, he'll be in the spotlight for quite a while. Not only that, we can make a tracker track him at night, that way we can catch him as GF. After we get rid of the GF, then catching the remaining scum will be easy if we all claim if we have a gun (and can shoot) or not. Those that claim they have a gun take turns in shooting each day (to actually confirm they have a gun) into the group that claimed they didn't have a gun (of course shooting those we think are actually scum from that group, not shooting our freaking blues >_>). So, if the GF claims Miller there is a high chance he'll get fucked, therefore I don't think he will. Therefore I think we can trust a Miller claim tomorrow, and in the worst case we'll get a tracker on him at N2. So people, this is the plan I was thinking of, do you agree or not?: To Miller:- If someone else already claimed Miller, he's GF so shoot him (and claim Miller in the process)
- If nobody claimed Miller, then claim Miller
- After you do, we'll discuss normally and you'll decide the shot, preferably with town consensus, so don't go rogue on our asses.
To Town:- No VT shoot until a Miller claims, or until 24 or more hours have passed (to give the Miller time to claim)
- Everybody, just discuss, scumhunt and catch some filthy scum for the Miller to shoot at
To Tracker the next night:If we don't have any Millers it will be apparent soon (before the 24 hours or so) since everybody will post but there will be no claim. If that happens, then after the 24 or so hours normal VTs are allowed to shoot. The purpose of this plan is: - Out the Miller so we have a "semi-confirmed" townie, and so Cops don't check him at night
- Either basically catch the GF if he fake-claims, or have the Miller as confirmed townie (after the tracker tracks him)
- If we catch the GF; then the rest of the game will be easy as pie
- If we don't, then we'll have a "confirmed" townie in the Miller by D2
- When D1 starts, we are guaranteed to have time to discuss and not have a random VT shoot 10 minutes into the day, because we'll be waiting for a Miller to claim
- When a Miller claims, he'll be the one in charge of the shot so we'll be sure no shenanigans and weird stuff happen (like 2 guys fighting each other and one randomly shooting the other one)
Of course this means everybody would follow the plan (those that have a gun and those that don't), so we are guaranteed to have some D1 time to discuss So people, what do you think? Observation:Maybe the SK can fake-claim Miller, since he can shoot at Day. However, the SK is forced to shoot at night, therefore a tracker on him WILL catch him. Also, since a "confirmed" Miller is bad reputation for scum, scum are likely to shoot the Miller claim, so the chances of scum shooting the SK will increase, blowing his cover once he survives the hit (and no medic claims his save). Basically, the SK fake-claiming Miller will let us/scum catch him sooner or later, and doing so to get the D1 shot (why would he want the D1 shot?) and a little confirmed status for a while isn't worth it for him. Observation2:There is a chance we don't have a tracker. In which case we can't confirm the Miller. First of all, the point is that scum don't know if we have a tracker either, so by having the GF fake-claim Miller they risk we actually having one. Second, even if we don't have a tracker, the GF will still be in the spotlight, because town will assume the tracker tracked him and got a "good" result (i.e that he didn't visit anyone), but the "Miller" claim will keep being alive throughout the whole game. This will mean that one day or the other the Miller-fake-claiming-Godfather will fall; so again it's not very convenient for him to do so That's an awful lot of effort to go to to explain something you think will never happen 'in your lifetime', don't you think?
Why are you being this aggressive and "in-your-face" on purpose?
Really? "That's an awful lot of effort to go to explain something you think will never happen 'in your lifetime', don't you think?" ? That's the best you can come up with to discredit me?
I doubt I even need to explain why you are just nit-picking and stretching things out
+ Show Spoiler [Just in case I do] +
Yes, I know mafia are less likely to fake-claim Miller, and will most likely not this game.
I need to express why I think that wouldn't you think? It's not like I can say "Yeah mafia will never fake-claim thanks bye!" and just drop the subject.
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Day 1![[image loading]](http://th05.deviantart.net/fs16/300W/f/2007/132/c/f/Duelist_fight_by_Pachycrocuta.jpg)
FreelanceSatan, Vanilla Towny has been killed
+ Show Spoiler [Role] +
Vanilla Towny -
You are a Vanilla Towny. You've had enough. No more sitting around voting on who's guilty. You've got a gun, and people will learn to listen to you or get bent. Any time during the day you may type ##kill(##Kill): player in the thread and shoot them. The day will end once you shoot. Once you have shot, you have to wait X number of days to shoot again where X is based on the total number of times you've shot during the game. So if you've shot at 2 people during the game, you have to wait 2 days before shooting again.
You win when all anti-town players are eliminated. Good luck!
19 hot blooded bad asses alive.
1 dead, cold body in the ground.
Watch your back at all times in this Town!
Day 1 ends when the first person is killed or 24 hours passes from this post: Wednesday June 13th at 12:00AM ET/13:00 KST. Good luck!
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EPT
