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Newbie Mini XV - Page 4

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 08 2012 19:08 GMT
#632
On June 09 2012 02:39 Xatalos wrote:

--snipped---

I have already answered to your case once (and pointed out its flaws). You agreed that some parts of it were incorrect, we agreed to disagree on some parts, and obviously it's now mostly obsolete as a whole (your points regarding heist are at best wrong - and most likely indicative of you being teamed up with him). So, I have a hard time grasping why you would just copy-paste your (clearly incorrect) old case instead of making a new case.


What makes my case clearly incorrect, all of you just take a good look at the case and the exchange between me and Xatalos afterwards, think for yourself and think critically. I requoted my case since it is still valid.


You also added some new points, but they're basically just WIFOM (no matter what I do, it's for a hidden Mafia agenda - there's clearly nothing I could do that would seem townish in front of your heavy confirmation bias).


The same thing is working against me right now. I might not be able to convince Xatalos of his own guilt (well who could ) but to all the rest of you, I am just wishing that you consider my thoughts, cases and posts based on their merit.


It's also blatantly wrong to say I've been following the flow of the thread: I was against lynching Ange777 once she started contributing, against lynching suki until I had to ensure the lynch with my final vote (although ninja'd by heist), against lynching Vivax until I (in hindsight, mistakenly) later during Day 2 had to agree that his recent play wasn't townish, heavily against a no-lynch although heist, austinmcc and yourself almost caused a no-lynch yesterday. If anyone, YOU have been following the flow of the thread (not counting yesterday where you went all-in to save heist -> instant Mafia victory).


-You were against lynching ange as soon as she started contributing. Well that is following the thread, I assume you meant as soon as ange posted the case on suki which was the contribution.
-you were against lynching suki, because he is your scumbuddy
-against lynching vivax? You were for lynching heist, as the general opinion was and then suddenly as Vivax got some amount of pressure you switched
-no-lynch was not the flow of the thread just look at the way the votes tallied up. Everyone was on the fence against heist, everyone including you.
-Where have I been following the thread? I wanted to lynch Vivax when nobody else seemed willing to do it, I want to get you lynched when nobody seems willing to do it.


With that out of the way, let's move on to ShiaoPi's own filter (o.Golden_ne + ShiaoPi, of course):

Show nested quote +
On May 31 2012 22:37 O.Golden_ne wrote:
If you read his filter you will see a broad range of players name in his posts, however rather than posting any solid analysis on ANYTHING he is recounting what they have said. I can read all the posts mate. he the proceeds to attack Eishi_ki on some fairly shaky reasoning.

As s0lstice pointed out, Unforgiven_ve has contradicted himself. I like s0lstices case on him and will back it.

Today my 4 lynch candidates are: Cattivik, Unforgiven, Superouman and Ange777.

The second 2 are for lurking. And i f**king hate lurkers after that last game.


This post already reeks of non-committal and vague reads (without much of any reasoning). He's ready to lynch 4 players (Cattivik/Vivax, Unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Ange777/austinmcc) - none of whom seem to be Mafia at this point - but doesn't actually commit to anything! He just says they're "lurking" or "a bit suspicious" and leaves it at that. He doesn't pressure, he doesn't reason, he even admits that he's just sheeping s0Lstice on suspecting Unforgiven_ve... Nothing in this post feels like something a townie would say. He doesn't actually Mafia hunt or add anything to the discussion. He just posts some vague reads without committing to any of them.

Show nested quote +
On June 01 2012 14:20 O.Golden_ne wrote:
@Sciberbia. I'm uncertain of suki at the moment. but i'm worried that a bandwagon is forming on him. we need to rationally consider a few options. i need to mull over suki's filter a while longer before condemning him. I feel that we may be more prosperous lynching some lurchers first, because as far as scumminess goes if suki is mafia (or anyone for that matter) chances are they'll keep digging themselves a hole if we can see it this early. I'm just so super wary of lurker now because of their potentially game changing absence.


I already mentioned this post earlier. He tries to save suki from being lynched, but doesn't actually even think that suki is town! He just basically says "suki might well be Mafia, but it'd be better to lynch a lurker before him". How does that make any sense at all from a town perspective? Only Mafia would say something like that. This post is pretty much enough to determine his alignment in itself, but in fact, it's merely the start...

He's conveniently away for the lynch deadline and retains his vote on Ange777/austinmcc. Based on that earlier post, I'm fairly certain he would have continued trying to save suki - even though he didn't have a town read on suki at any point! - had he not been partying somewhere. Just because of this dumb luck, he manages to narrowly escape the flak s0Lstice, Vivax, heist and I get for having a town read on suki. Even though, in fact, he has by far the most suspicious relation with suki during Day 1 - way more suspicious than any of us four.

Now we get to the juicy part:

Show nested quote +
On June 03 2012 06:59 ShiaoPi wrote:
Sorry took me longer than I thought to catch up and all, let's share some of my reads:

To me there are several people kind of suspicious:
First of I am really wary of Vivax:
His play seemed really solid and townielike until ange posted her case on suki. He states that he believes 100% in his townread on suki and goes to great length to try to defend him and secure the lynch on ange, when his reasons to vote her were only lurking. It does seem scummy as we all know that suki flipped scum. On the other hand his tunneling could also be a sign of bad townie, I am kind of torn about him, what really strikes me out is that he does not seem to want to face the critique which is for sure going to come his way at Day 2, but on the other hand going by the first half of day 1 and his playstyle it could just as well be a bad townie.

eishi_ki is slightly suspicious, he kind of lurked (although with RL complications, so not making a fuss out of it) but what struck me was the soft-defense suki gave him:
+ Show Spoiler +

In any case, I don't think Eishi is scum, but he hasn't contributed that much to the thread as of yet.


and
I wasn't piling suspicion on Eishi_ki. Eishi was under fire by Cattivik, so I was posting my read on him, and my read was that, based on his posts thus far, Eishi had not contributed anything, but I did not feel he was scum.


This makes it slightly suspicious, especially as these posts came before he came under pressure prior to lynch.

Superouman: I guess everybody can agree that he is a huge mystery right now, wishy-washy non-committal posts, refusal to play according to win-con and a random vote on sciberbia. Until he starts posting again not much to make of, but seriously this guy is sooo confusing.

Xatalos would be my last on this list of kind of suspicion. He seemed to take quite a good moderating role on in day 1 directing discussion etc. But the content within his posts is not too much if you look at them closely. Furthermore in the phase just before lynch he presses really hard for a lynch on unforgiven, given the fact that suki flipped scum it could have been a deflecting manoveur, this would kind of link him up with heist , but heist reads as pretty townie to me.


ShiaoPi's first post is very, very wishy-washy and non-committal. He's "kind of" suspicious of several players, but doesn't commit to anything - much like o.Golden_ne played earlier. His main suspect is Vivax, although he repeatedly adds that Vivax might equally well be a bad townie (how non-committal can one get...?). Even though he thinks Vivax has a good chance of flipping town, he just goes with the consensus opinion and wants to lynch Vivax anyway.


The first two are posts of Golden, I had no influence on them and can merely say that I would have disagreed with the way he posted, but I cannot do anything about it. So let's go on to answer your points on my actual post.

It is my opening post, I share some of my scum-suspicion and follow it through with pushing for a Vivax lynch and succeed in it? How can you say that I go with the consensus opinion when I was the first one who brought back a Vivax lynch as option to the thread? Just reread day 2 and tell me that I am non-comittal...


Show nested quote +
On June 04 2012 01:53 ShiaoPi wrote:
What confuses me right now is that heist seems to pop up as a sure scumread for some people out of the sudden, he was no where near suspicion in day1 only after solstice posted his case pressure mounted up. So let's take a look at solstice's case:

The first topic of the case depends heavily on the town-read solstice got from Vivax. Furthermore it is worth to note that heist's suspicions of Vivax stem from his "100%-townread" he got on sciberbia. This is something which seems highly suspicious to me as well. I do not deny that sciberbia is a high townread for me too, but NOBODY is confirmed town until the flip. Naturally you can put that on a case of bad townie, but still it is weird. I can understand why he kind of tunnels Vivax from this point on.
Furthermore it deals with his general playstyle in the first half of day 1. I do not see inconsistencies there. He scumhunts Vivax and (to a lesser degree) Unforgiven as well as pointing out the totally useless guy in superouman.

Solstice's case continues with the lynch:
He claims to see inconsistency and scummotivation in his play. I frankly said do not agree. Heist enters as soon as ange returns and wants to see more from her (like pretty much everyone) and then plays the waiting game. Unforgiven does weird posts in that time so I can see him jumping on him as he was suspicious of him anyway. His voting pattern seems pretty clear. His vote on superouman was part-pressure, part-incentive for other people to vote him off instead of ange, as he switches he simply goes to unforgiven as his next best scumread. He even states that he does not vote for suki as he reads as town to him, his "yelling" at vivax is something totally conceivable, take a look at vivax' post it screams stupidity he still does not believe that suki is scum but votes him anyway?! The so called "uselessness" of the counter-case on unforgiven can be put into doubt from my point of view. Until suki's flip everyone had reservations of unforgiven due to his play and therer was momentum building on it as well. And his "late" voting can be explained that he simply did not believe suki is scum, which he stated several times. He stuck by his reads, which seems okay to me.

So much for my townread on heist.


He defends heist from being lynched, much like he defended suki earlier. The one thing that really screams Mafia here is this: he uses many of the exact same arguments to validate his desire to lynch me that actually applied to heist as well - but when he talks about heist, he trashes/ignores those same arguments completely!!! This glaring contradiction can only be explained by both heist and ShiaoPi being Mafia. If he was town, there's no way he would use the same arguments to accuse me that he earlier defended heist from.


Where did I use the same arguments defending heist and pushing you? I am explaining my townread in this post as was requested by sciberbia. Compare my townread with the case on you, where are the similarities? I see no contradiction.

On June 05 2012 06:53 ShiaoPi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2012 06:49 sciberbia wrote:
Well, it looks like Vivax is being lynched. I hope you guys were right about him, but I have a bad feeling about this one.

@ShiaoPi
you think he will flip town now?

Show nested quote +

I am now confused as hell. I don't believe scum would be that suicidal but right now my read on him is now: WTF?! No Idea


After Vivax self-votes (which is definitely not something townies would/should do), ShiaoPi immediately loses all his (already almost non-existent) commitment for pushing Vivax. He tries to make himself look like he's not to blame for the lynch: after all, he has a town/neutral read on Vivax... Who could blame him for just consolidating to prevent a no-lynch? Win-win!


I cannot understand how far you have to twist the events of day2, I was one of the leading guys pushing Vivax and vivax's selfvote confused me so I said that in the thread. I am neither unvoting (as unforgiven had suggested at that moment) nor saying go lynch somebody else.


Show nested quote +
On June 08 2012 05:24 ShiaoPi wrote:
Well I will not switch my vote on heist. If you really only want one of eishi/heist then I say go with eishi, but no chance to convince you on Xatalos?


Again wishy-washy and doesn't commit to anything. Wants to lynch Eishi_Ki or me (town & town) instead of heist. He might have even succeeded and won the game for Mafia, if it weren't for some good calls, especially by austinmcc.


How is that wishy-washy? I keep pushing for you even say that I will not switch my vote? How is that non-comittal? The 2nd part of the post was merely me saying that in the scenario Milton shared with lynching either heist or eishi, I would want to go after eishi, since heist was a townread to me.


Well, that's pretty much it. There's very likely more Mafia agenda elsewhere in his filter, but even a part of this case should be enough to convince anyone he's Mafia - and all this together makes it basically impossible for him NOT to be Mafia...


How does my case make it impossible for me not to be mafia? I am pushing my agenda of lynching the scummiest person to me, which is Xatalos.

To all other townies reading this. Tell me why would a townie defend himself like this? Most of it is pretty weak as I have answered them. He tries to discredit me instead of dissolving my arguments and points against him.
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 08 2012 20:01 GMT
#634
I am talking against a wall with Xatalos (who would have guessed?)

To everyone else still in this game: May I hear your thoughts on this? The only way we can still win this is if we get scum tomorrow and not mislynch.
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 08 2012 20:16 GMT
#637
my logic is that you constantly misread what I am writing and as you are (naturally) hellbent on lynching me there is nothing I can do with further arguing with you besides cluttering up the thread.

What I can do now is wait and see. Milton should come online soon, austin should also be able to post soon.
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 08 2012 20:45 GMT
#639
I am not saying that I cannot defend from those points....Again you are misreading -.-
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 08 2012 21:52 GMT
#646
Well there goes my last hope for a town win I guess. Looks like you are all ready to lynch me tomorrow. Let's enjoy some while we wait for the nighthit to arrive.
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 08 2012 22:01 GMT
#651
GG unforgiven.

As things go I'll be next or are you still willing to listen to me?
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 08 2012 22:03 GMT
#652
For town's sake:

##Vote: Xatalos

It's him or Milton at this point, but I am tending towards Xatalos, but nobody will listen
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 08 2012 22:08 GMT
#656
Actually right now thinking about it, maybe I tunneled too hard on Xatalos. Milton also stands out in general inactivity, lack of cases and content. Something to consider for any of you?
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 08 2012 22:16 GMT
#659
Hey Xatalos, where are you? ordinarily one of the first to comment on the nighthit?
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 08 2012 22:18 GMT
#661
In this case we really should end the day cycle earlier.

##unvote
##Vote: ShiaoPi


Well played Xatalos/Milton (well one of you has to be :S)

Will I get in trouble by this? For "not playing to win"? Tried really hard but no chance.
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 08 2012 22:20 GMT
#662
EBWOP: If it really was Milton I got mindfucked by him twice now >_>
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 08 2012 22:26 GMT
#665
Toad, can you flip me and get the endgame done?
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 08 2012 23:08 GMT
#674
Sent
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 08 2012 23:26 GMT
#684
I fucking told you :D listen to me guys
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 08 2012 23:28 GMT
#688
Thanks for hosting with d3-flavor toad!
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 08 2012 23:39 GMT
#699
Just a general question was heist that obvious as scum? I feel really bad for having defended him all day
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 08 2012 23:57 GMT
#712
Thanks solstice at least a bit of consolation
I feel I got really badly set up by Goldens post though. Sooo annoying to be unable to respond to these, guess that's the downside of replacing. and I almost forgot to thank marvellosity for some great coaching!

To the more veteran players was there still a chance to convince town on the last day? I felt really frustrated and helpless
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 09 2012 00:34 GMT
#736
On June 09 2012 09:17 austinmcc wrote:
Maybe I was being me again and making it overly complicated, but I figured you'd both shoot Unforgiven.

You needed to get him off your back and needed to eliminate someone who said he wasn't looking at ShiaoPi. Figured ShiaoPi would make the same shot because he came out looking so bad that his best bet was to keep making you seem scummy, so he had to shoot Unforgiven as well and start throwing out WIFOM. Which he...didn't do.


I thought throwing out WIFOM would have looked like grasping at straws :D
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 09 2012 00:42 GMT
#740
Well it should not trust my reads too much I guess. But moving away from heist would have seemed really scummy too (at least in my opinion) so I just thought stick with it until he goes totally bonkers/scummy >_>
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 09 2012 00:46 GMT
#743
On June 09 2012 09:44 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 09 2012 09:42 ShiaoPi wrote:
Well it should not trust my reads too much I guess. But moving away from heist would have seemed really scummy too (at least in my opinion) so I just thought stick with it until he goes totally bonkers/scummy >_>


Heh... Damned if you do, damned if you don't How do you get into these situations in the first place? haha

By putting too much confidence in your reads xD but yeah dug myself a really nice grave there ^^
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
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