TL Mafia LV - Page 111

On May 27 2012 18:22 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
So, I'm going to start off by saying that I'm running for Leader/Vice-Leader. I'd prefer if I can hit the vice-leader spot out of the two, and I'll explain why further on.

I'm not going to go too deep into my past performance since I've always felt it's a waste of time and doesn't really say anything. It doesn't matter what you've done in past games, it matters what you're doing in this game. But, for those who really want it, I'm a decent enough scum-hunter, I'm town, and I hope I'll be able to demonstrate those to you and get elected.

I don't have a kill target right now, but if I'm in line to be elected leader, I will let the town know what I'm thinking with some advance notice, so as not to surprise anyone with my choice for the lynch. I'm going to play out Day 1 as normal, and as soon as I develop a decent scum read, I'll let the town know, and we can discuss it. In the end, I'm hoping we can base the game around actual discussion of scum targets instead of the trend I've seen lately of someone making a case, no one commenting on it, and then people just calling others scum with no reasoning to back it up. If you want to lynch someone, I expect you to actually come up with reasons why it's best to do so, and not just blatant sheeping. As well, if you disagree with a lynch, actually speak up. I don't even care if you're wrong, because the point of discussion is to discard the bad or wrong ideas and move forward with the good ones.

If I get elected as Leader and so obtain extra votes, on further days I'll just use them to apply additional pressure to who I want to lynch. I don't want you to sheep me just because I got elected to leader. If you agree with my ideas, great, if you don't then that's good for you, but hopefully you actually discuss why you don't, than turn into a brick wall.

However, like I said at the beginning of my post, I'd prefer to actually be elected to the position of vice-leader, since I believe that position can be abused much more by scum being elected to it, and has the potential to generate a ton of confusion. I also don't even trust most townies to it, since lots of people will misuse the role and cause as much confusion as if scum had it.

The role of vice-leader is much more powerful than leader, and I believe it's the position we should actually be focusing on today. The leader picks the day 1 lynch, which will hopefully be influenced by town, and after that they only have 1 extra vote. The vice-leader on the other hand, has the ability to waste an entire day, cause an extra round of night actions to go through (which is bad for us in most cases), and also generates lots of confusion. If they use their power in an anti-town way, it means we potentially have to spend two extra days just to lynch the vice-leader and the person we were trying to lynch in the first place. This ties up our primary KP for a long time, and we get the additional WIFOM of if the pardoner pardoned his scum buddy or not, and whether the pardoner is actually scum or just a stupid townie. Basically, the pardon ability causes a ton of trouble that we won't want most of the time.

As vice-leader, I promise not to use my power in 99% of cases. Basically, the only exception I can come up with off the top of my head would be a MYLO situation where I was going to be lynched as town, and pardoning myself means we don't auto-lose. Outside of a situation like that though, I really don't see a reason where I would ever want, or need, to use the pardon. So, I want to be elected, because I know my own alignment, and can trust myself not to frivolously use the pardon, or use it against the good of the town. I can't trust others to do that, since I can't know you're not scum, and beyond that, even with a town read, lots of people have the capacity to do something silly because they're convinced that it's a good play. However, this normally results in more bad than good, and in the mislynch of the player who did it, which isn't a desirable outcome.

I'm planning to play the same regardless of which position you put me in, or if you elect me at all. However, I believe I can use the Leader position effectively, but would prefer to be able to safekeep the position of Vice-leader, to keep it away from not only scum, but also compulsive townies. I'd like it if you vote for me, but you should also consider a second person you would like to be elected along with me, since for whichever role, we still need to have either a vice-leader or leader to go along with it.

Now, as for myself, I'm going to vote in a candidate based on who I think is most likely to be town, who I can trust to be the most transparent with what they're thinking, who has the best reads, and who won't go Rambo at the end of Day 1 and cause a huge mess for Day 2. Those four things are the criteria by which I will determine who I support as the other candidate for office. I'll keep you updated with what I think once most of the candidates come out and make their posts and we get past super early game posting.

The pardon question has already been asked and answered:


Also, it's 3 a.m. here, so I'm going to bed now. However, Blazinghand, do you actually think it's the best day 1 play to just lynch someone you think is bad rather than someone you think is scum? Maybe if you had no scum reads by the end of Day 1, but you make it sound like you'll go through with it regardless...

On May 29 2012 06:00 EchelonTee wrote:
While I think Zealos/Mattchew are scummy for a few reasons, I'd rather hold off on them for a few reasons. You guys better step up your play if you're town.

RE: Strongandbig

This case is late (which will be sure to set of Wiggles' alarm bells :p) and ninja'd for the most part, but here are my reasons for wanting to lynch SnB.

His campaign post has been already pointed out as strange. Why state "I am running for mayor b/c blue role is fun"? It appears that he doesn't care to run for mayor to help town; even when townies run for mayor off of bad reasoning, they at least appear focused in some aspect. SnB's campaign feels like a small conglomarate of generic reasons ("I will make cases. I will use pardoner role if I think it's ok but I will discuss it") that could easily be faked by a newbie scum.

While generally I would think newbie scum (he has had around 4 games now though? he's breaking out) would be reluctant to go for a role, note that his original election campaign was only for the pardoner. The pardoner role has much less accountability (no lynch, no extra vote), while still having some sway. I could see his vet scum buddies not wanting to go for election b/c no bodyguards, and instead let SnB go for it.

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The majority of his filter is filled with posts like this, posts that don't really talk about much. While it is true that I have a long filter chock full of setup speculation, talking about general shit, etc., since I have a higher post count, I have the time to both post about that stuff, and post reads/opinions. In SnB's case, with his limited posting he has only posted one case, but worse so, he has posted very little opinions about anybody. He states that he thinks me and Wiggles look townie. Thanks bro, but that's about it.

He states that he thinks supersoft is scummy, builds case. While his case isn't bad, it consists of "this turn by supersoft is not logical, therefore he is scum". Read this last paragraph from his case.+ Show Spoiler +

It doesn't take much to see that the logic there is pretty convoluted. "looks like a scum SS saw he could make town cred, but backed off when he realized toad could be lyncher"? ...

And even now, when given an opportunity to take a stance on someone (Sinensis), he is still waffly. No me gusta.

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Filter analysis seems to corroborate his scumminess.

His filter from Wheel of Fortune. He talks about setup speculation in an extensive manner along with a plan (that code thing). Has opinions on several people D1.

His filter from Space Station. Doesn't take stances on almost anyone, doesn't build much cases. Disclaimer: one of his first games.

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Lastly, the case doesn't feel too "easy". This is more of an abstract thing, but when a lynch seems to be proceeding too easily (tons of people agreeing easily except for one or more so mavericks), then it feels like a mislynch. Think Janaan from TL Mafia LI; who actually opposed that lynch? SnB has had some people indicate that they see SnB as "null" or "not scummy enough" to lynch atm. However, since the progenitors of the case are people that I currently trust, I have reason to believe that the resistance is healthy, and the case is strong.

I will kill SnB if elected. Alternatively, if Wiggles is elected I hope he will pick SnB over Sinensis.

On May 29 2012 07:30 EchelonTee wrote:
I posted a case, Forumite. Tell me what you think of it.

The reason why I don't particularly want to lynch Mattchew atm is because he is probably just busy. He has played active scum games before, so him just lurking =/= scum. Uncharacteristic though, for sure.

I would be ok with a Zealos lynch, but it doesn't have much grounding atm. If I was elected, Zealos would probably be my 2nd choice.

I don't agree with a Sinensis lynch because I don't think he is scum, but it stands that he is not very contributive and his death wouldn't be as bad as whiffing a lynch on say, Toad, but I don't agree with the lynch.

On May 31 2012 03:01 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
I'm going to say right off the bat that I disagree with the VE case. He's one of my town-reads. I don't see why him opposing Toad being elected into office makes him scum. As well, I don't really see why what he's posting makes him scum.

Instead, I think we should go with lynching Gambit today. The case on him has already been made, and it's pretty solid based on the information we have. As well, calling him scum actually looked pretty polarizing at first, and there were a couple people who soft-defended him:

+ Show Spoiler +

Which could give us some decent information and leads if/when he flips scum. They all look odd to me, since none of them actively address whether they think gambit is scum or not. Instead, they're "We don't lynch lurkers", "I'd rather wait" (Why?), "You made a mistake about the voting. Lynch this other lurker instead!". Notice that none of them actually defend Gambit as town, they just try to find excuses not to lynch him. I find this interesting, since I could particularly see strongandbig or austinmc making a mistake like that as scum as they seem more inexperienced.

On May 31 2012 14:31 Mr. Wiggles wrote:

I've been more busy in the last couple days than I was when I ran. I only had an hour and a bit of free time today so far after the morning and ended up playing Dota, haha. :p

I guess I'll answer your other post at the same time, since they're pretty much asking the same thing.
+ Show Spoiler +
I decided to go for Gambit, since the soft-defenses of him made me pretty suspicious, and the original analysis was good as well. His name as scum came pretty suddenly, because it's not like people were pressuring him too hard before-hand. Instead, it was more of a surprise and the case on him appeared very quickly. The case on him made sense. After it popped up, several people entered the thread and all defended against his lynch. However, they didn't do it in such a way that they called him town, or not scum, they did it in such a way that it looked a lot more like they were making excuses as to why we shouldn't lynch him. That's not the proper way to defend someone from a lynch, from a town perspective. So, I already agreed with what WBG had said about Gambit, and then a bunch of people soft-defended him scummily. Therefore, I decided he would be a good lynch, since he seemed likely to flip scum from the analysis made, and then he could provide us with further leads on three separate players. Especially strongandbig and austinmc seemed like they'd be healthy leads if gambit flips scum, since I could definitely see them reacting like that if they saw a scum-buddy suddenly accused with no warning. Their posts and VE's looked like knee-jerk reactions to WBG.

While I think Zealos looks pretty bad, I don't think the bolded plays into it at all. I think he's just saying that he thinks Toad will look town if he proves that he's a mason, if not, he's scum of some kind. That was the general opinion in the thread then too, so it looks like he's just echoing that.