I'm a cop you idiot mafia

On April 14 2012 08:46 Blazinghand wrote:


That doesn't make his idea wrong though. Look, here's what's gonna happen D1: we'll be at lylo. Our cop needs to claim NOW, and get medic protection, and NOT call who he is checking.

Scenario A (cop does not claim): We enter D1 and the mafia has possibly shot the cop. The cop can claim at this point and we have 2 confirmed town, or 1 confirmed town and 1 confirmed scum. If the cop got shot, though, we're flying blind.
Scenario B (cop DOES claim): We enter D2 and the mafia cannot have shot the cop, because the medic protected him overnight. THE COP CANNOT HAVE BEEN SHOT, meaning we have 2 confirmed town, or 1 confirmed town and 1 confirmed scum.

I think that even though it's gonna be LYLO tomorrow, the cop should claim, and the medic should just protect him.

On April 14 2012 08:51 Radfield wrote:
I want to discuss this Tunkeg, but NO ONE claim yet.

There are pro's and con's to each claiming + counter-claim, and not claiming at all. At the moment I'm leaning towards it being better to not claim. Keep in mind that barring a hero medic protect, we are in constant lylo no matter what.

I'm at work right now, but will be home in just over 2 hours. I would like to discuss this in depth.

After typing that, it's possible that claiming IS the best call because it forces a 50-50 lynch, which is decent. I'm not sure yet though, so hold off until we discuss.

Stick around for two hours(or 2.5) though and I'll be here.

On April 14 2012 08:53 Blazinghand wrote:
Ok.

Bear in mind that the night is pretty short (only 10 hours left). I'll be around for some time. The only reason I brought this up again was that an N0 claim could be more advantageous than a D1 claim-- mafia has no RB.

On April 14 2012 12:24 Radfield wrote:
Ok, I think Blazinghand is the fake-claimer and I'm writing this now as I don't expect to live through the night. Let me tell you why.

Lets first consider mafia motivations for this game. You KNOW that it's all about the cop, and counter-claiming the cop. If I rolled mafia, first thing I'm doing is discussing which of us is going to claim as the cop. Also consider this: mafia want to be the first out of the gate to claim cop, because whoever claims second generally looks like a pretty lame counter-claimer. So mafia will try to be johnny-on-the-spot and snipe the claim before the actual cop. Anything that gives you a measure of credibility is worth it, considering one has to assume this game will be decided on the slightest misstep. Hence mafia will be looking for an excuse to claim early.

I'd like to talk first about why I think Blazinghand is scum, then I will talk about why I think Tunkeg is the actual Cop. Those two points are mostly exclusive.

There are several reason I think Blazinghand is scum and first is his demeanor.
First is his response to me on page 3:

+ Show Spoiler +

His response to me is deferential and defensive. He gives an excuse for why he brought it up, when no excuse was needed. There was nothing even really wrong with his post, except for the fact that he completely leaves off mentioning a counter-claim scenario. How can you entertain the idea of a cop claiming but not notice the obvious counter-claim scenario. It's conspicuous in it's absence.

Fact is, I wasn't even responding to BH, I was talking to Tunkeg, as you can see by my next post.

Second is the contradiction between this:


and this:



Keep in mind that Blazinghand's claim came apprx 2 minutes after I posted my analysis of 'to claim or not to claim'. If his strategy was truly to 'discuss it with other players until it's clear what the optimal strategy is", he most certainly did NOT do that. What he did was leap at the first opportunity to claim cop that he had. There was basically no discussion of the pros and cons or potential merits of claiming or not. Just me stating that one was better than the other, when I had JUST posted that I was feeling muddled about the potential cost-benefit analysis and was asking for people's thoughts.

Remember that mafia are looking for a reason to claim first, and my post is an easy excuse. In this post BH also states the the game is "clearly about the cop", yet in his initial post he completely fails to talk about counter-claims, which is bizarre.

From there on out it's just a shoving match between Tunkeg and Blazinghand. The crux of my argument truly comes down to the contradiction. Blazinghand claims that his whole mindset was to discuss and wait for the optimal strategy, and then claim. However he waits only for my opinion, and then claims. But what if I am scum and being intentionally misleading!? BH gives no thought to that(because he knows i am town), but immediately claims in thread. I hold that the immediacy of that claim is due to not wanting to be the second claimer, because BH KNOWS there will be two claimants.

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Tunkeg on the other hand, I have a fairly town read on. First his opening post shows he cares about and has thought about the game. It includes things such as medic save percentages, which is something that isn't an obvious pro/con at first glance. His post also reads like a cop just begging for someone to say "Hey Cop! TIme to claim!". He then follows it up with trying to encourage discussion, which doesn't happen.

Second, Tunkeg claims he first sent in a check on Blazinghand, and then changed once the CC happened. He follows up by saying:

This is actually pretty good logic, and shows that either he has been thinking about his check, or is just really good at making shit up on the fly.

Lets compare and contrast BH and Tunkeg's claim-posts:




One is well structured, with blue font and a couple well reasoned sentanced. The other is slapdash and spontaneous. Speaking as a player who has played as scum before, I would NEVER make a post like Tunkegs as a fake counter claim. My post would look exactly like BH's. Safe, Neutral and most important: First.



BH accuses Tunkeg of being scummy for not going to bed, and returning to the thread. However this is the exact opposite of typical scum play. When you say you're going to bed as scum, you go to bed. It's when you say you are going to write an analysis or something is when you actually don't follow through. Town players are constantly drawn back to the thread, while mafia players are constantly looking for reasons to leave it(usually). Look at my posting this game, I stated I was going to wait until I got home, but then just kept posting from work at the expense of my work(hint: it's because I am town).

Look at the demeanor of each player. Tunkeg seems relaxed and come-what-may. BH seems wound tightly and defensive.

I'd like to write more, but frankly I'm tired. Here's hoping the medic sees me along to Day 1 (I doubt it though!).

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Additionally(upon refreshing the page) I think the rolecop thing is likely a red herring. The OP states this: "Cops can investigate someone's alignment every night". Which means that no, Tunkeg will not be able to get back 'medic' as a result(which I had thought). However, I think one would only know that if you read the OP carefully because....

It doesn't actually say anything in the cop PM!

Blazinghand states this:


And he states it as if that information is written into his role PM and not just publicly available. As we know, the role PMs only state this: "Welcome to Idiot Mafia. You are a Cop/Vanilla Town/Doctor/Mafia Goon". So it's perfectly understandable that Tunkeg could mistake how his role works, particularly with me stating the same thing(and him only agreeing with me). Again, I think it more likely that a scum player will be meticulous about the fine detail of the fake claim, and not unlikely that the actual cop might miss that blurb.

I'd give about 70-75% chance right now that BH is scum.

On April 15 2012 10:04 johnnywup wrote:


Bugs "late condemnation" was fine, when he saw something scummy he went on it and I agree that what he pointed out made me suspect BH more. If it was me I wouldn't really condemn someone unless I thought he was scum, so maybe he was just late to the BH-is-scum party, and didn't see why BH was scum initially.

Actually, looking back at bluelightz he does look way more scummy than you. His responses are exclusively one-liners. And this is extremely contradictory ( the posts are also somewhat far apart so i may be completely wrong about them talking about the same thing but I think they both are talking about my early vote on tunkeg)






emphasis mine. obviously contradictory

Dirkzors arguments seem genuine and make a ton of sense. Super logical. I'd say he's one of the most likely to be town.

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from townliness 1 to 10:
Dirkzor 8
Radfield 5
Bluelightz 3
Wherebugsgo 6