EPTNewbie Mini Mafia VIII - Page 5
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
What do you think about what I wrote earlier on Imallinson and the connection between Dittert and HiroPro? It wouldn't really make sense for Imallinson to come up with this kind of connection if he actually was scum together with Dittert. At least not while so few votes are on Dittert. It could be an idea if Dittert was about to get lynched, and Hiro is town. It would make him look less suspicious and put some blame on Hiro. But again, with this few votes on Dittert, that is pretty unlikely. | ||
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
I'm not sure your post was directed at me, but I'll answer it anyway! Actually, I have really liked your recent posting. You seem towny to me. The fact I suspected you was that there was(and still is, but you seem to make an effort to fix it) so little posted by you/trumpetarn. My suspicions were/are pretty much only because of your lurking. | ||
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
Acrofales has been a scum read in my notes since day 1. | ||
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
Nighty night fellow townies! <3 Fuck you scum bastards. | ||
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
From this night I mean. | ||
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
I've looked back att Acro, and he looks good to me. The only thing is that post in which I corrected him for making a pretty darn big factual error. That was actually quite disturbing to me. Still, he has been the sole biggest contributor to the thread in my opinion. He have made the strongest cases and seems to be the one to put the most amount of effort into the game. I still have to put him as town. I don't like Imallinsons and Funcmodes posts. Imallinson: I'm fine with him being suspicious about Xatalos, but his case against Acro and later me doesn't make much sense to me. This is not a list of Imallinsons top scum reads. This is a list of Imallinsons top scum reads IF Xatalos flips red. It would be nice if he could also provide us with a list of his top scum reads as the game looks at the moment. (I know he presented alternative percentages on me and Acro if Xatalos would flip green, but he also said that 33% is a null read and he put Acro on 33% and me on 40%, we would still be unlikely to be his mafia reads if Xatalos would flip green) Funcmode: While the later half of his post is fine, the top part just don't give us anything. I can't see how his analysis on wordings on peoples first few posts after a lynch could give us anything. Sure, if anyone posts a case or reads directly after the lynch it makes sense, but analyzing posts like: For fucks sake. Oh, Lol. Well fuck shit my hell. Sucky sucky I don't like this. I need to sleep, good night! ....... At least we now have a pretty solid read on Xatalos. Also with that I'm off for the night, beginning work for my bachelor thesis tomorrow. Good Night! It's completely pointless to try to evaluate these kind of posts by trying to messure the amount of "genuine disapointedness". Also, alot of the text in the post in general consists of just rephrasing what has been said in the post. Could potentially be one of these "I want to seem useful"-posts. Actually, right now I feel like pretty much anyone could be mafia. I actually like Acros and Xatalos cases on Willz though. Looking back at his filter, he seems to have been keeping his head down a bit since he barely survived that first lynch. I haven't really dwelled deeply into his filter, but as far as I can tell he haven't really come up with any kind of case or analysis but has been keeping up with focusing on giving other people feedback(which he criticized me for). | ||
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
On April 18 2012 07:45 imallinson wrote: @vonKlaust Acrofales already asked me to provide my top 3 minus the connection to Xatalos. It was #1: Xatalos #2: Dittert #3: Willz Although at this point I'd probably swap Dittert and Willz. Oh, sorry I missed that. Thanks for the clarification. | ||
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
There is one thing that make me think that Dittert isn't necessary lying. Let's assume that Dittert is mafia and have been thinking about how to make this fake DT claim. It would make muuuuch more sense for him to claim that I was his mafia claim. I have been AFK alot, and when I have had time to write in the thread I haven't really contributed. This would first of all make me look more suspicious and it would be easier to get town to jump on my lynch, and it would be easier to win an argument with me since I don't have much case to make a strong defense or a counter case(not necessarily against Dittert). Instead of going for the easy target, he went for the one that is pretty much a 90% town read by everyone. This does not make sense at all. Sure, you could argue that he would do this to psyche us and that we would see through his bluff if he did this. But I don't agree that that is likely. Even if he wouldn't pick me as his target, he could at least have picked Xatalos or Imallinson(which as far as I'm aware have been the last ones to recieve accusations). If he is mafia, picking KB as his mafia claim would pretty much be retarded. Also, if he did pick an easier target I'm not sure at all that we would take note of that as anything suspicious. I agree with Ditterts' argument that it wouldn't make much sense for mafia to fake claim DT right now. So far, this game has gone 100% in mafias favour. Because of this, taking the risk of a fake DT claim would probably not be worth it in my opinion. Sure, they could potentially end the game right now, but as Day[9] would tell you it would probably be better to use your lead to try to come even more ahead rather than taking a huge risk and try to end it right away. It seems that you guys are 100% sure that we would lynch a mafia if they don't do a desperate move like this. 1. I don't agree that is true. I'm still not sure who I'll vote for tonight. 2. Even if that would be true, it's still very doubtful if it would be worth it to stick your neck out the way Dittert have. I'll get back to you on my thoughts on Willz later. | ||
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
If he is the real Detective (statistical chance of 25%) Ooooh, this is very interesting to me. This could defenitly be a scumslip. This piece of statistics is correct, assuming you know that he is town. If you don't know that he is town, the chances of him being DT is 1/7. | ||
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
On April 20 2012 03:31 funcmode wrote: If only everything was so simple. While you definitely have a point (you're DT, KB is scum 100%, or you're scum 100%) the fact that there's a good chance the other mafia are potentially bussing you right now makes the whole situation far more complicated. Wait what? Why would they do that? | ||
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
On April 20 2012 03:38 willz22912 wrote: @ the statistic talk There are 5 town alive, 3 mafia alive. Everyone is coming up with 25% because you're not going to count yourself as not-town(scumslip) so theres only 4 other town. Claiming chance of dt is 1/7 is wrong because there are 3 mafia still in the game and they cannot be DT obviously. Let's assume for a moment that Xatalos is scum and Dittert is a copper. Xatalos would know that Dittert is townie, but not if he is blue or not. He also knows who are his scumbuddies. From his perspecitve this would make the statistics of Dittert being cop 1/5. From a town perspective, you don't know who are the mafia members, and the statistics would be 1/8. What I'm thinking is that Xatalos slipped, and accidentally posted the mafia version of the statistics without thinking about that he should have used the town statistics. However he did remember to count himself out of the equation, landing on 25% instead of 20%. From a town perspective, counting himself out this would make 1/7. Does this make any sense or am I just an idiot? | ||
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
##Vote: KharadBanar | ||
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