EPTMr. Wiggles Mini Mafia II - Page 9
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On March 10 2012 09:18 deconduo wrote: If it was a normal player, he would be 2nd on my scumlist after paper1. However its Pandain who rolls a dice to decide what to do each day: 1. Claim mafia 2. Claim tracker 3. Lurk 4. Spam 5. Lose the game 6. Win the game I've never been able to read him properly, its what makes him a meh town player but a deceptively dangerous mafia player. If I was to go with my gut I'd say town2. However the only way to know for sure is when he flips. What happened between 1 and 2? You do realise you read is useless right? You're basically saying he is a "meh" town player but if he is mafia we should watch out. Your gut says town but your head says scum. You couldn't be more diplomatic if you tried. I find it really odd that he has made a concerted effort to buddy with you. You have no opinion on this? You're a fat null for me right now and that is not good enough on Day 3. I had you pegged as town but you are not helping us, so please try and provide something useful. | ||
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On March 10 2012 10:16 deconduo wrote: If you want useful reads: -Paper is SK. -Probulous, Toast are town -Snarfs, Blue, AKCT are scum. If only one person dies tonight then that will change as it would probably mean no SK and Paper is telling the truth about being vig. Those are very strange reads. If I had pick one townie out of everyone here it would be Snarfs. Bluelightz always looks scummy but at least he chose to defy the crowd and not vote for Adam. It's WIFOM but honestly that is the best we can hope for with him. AKCT is likely to be scum based on numbers but the most scummy thing he has done has been lurking which is explained by his head being in need of repair. Anyway since you don't like talking at night, we can discuss this after the flip. Of course if I am no longer here after the flip (or you for that matter) others can continue this conversation. | ||
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I could go into more depth if necessary but he just doesn't look like scum to me. He has been too open and willing to push everyone for little mistakes to be mafia. Changing your mind is not a scummy thing to do if you have a reason for it. I changed my read on Paperscraps. Anyway, that is my read on him. Day in just under an hour right? | ||
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 I guess this confirms the existence of a SK then. | ||
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Given there is a SK the sandroba hit was probably real. Paperscraps' vig claim was real which means the SK must have doublestacked on either Palmar or Jackal. We are at 6/14 with two scum (probably based on balance, is this likely) and a SK. If we miss-lynch today we lose. Half the players left should be on your suspicious list. I think Snarfs is town, I am town. That leaves three lynch targets in Decon, Bluelightz, Toast and AKCT. Filters how we come. | ||
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 Because they wouldn't have shot sandroba then would they? | ||
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Yes I am assuming that the SK shot every night but assuming otherwise makes no sense. Yes I am assuming that sandroba was really shot but gain his claim makes no sense otherwise. I wasn't convinced before because I couldn't be 100% certain of Paperscraps claim. I can't believe that after so many days working this out you come to different conclusions? Simple question what would you need to be convinced there is a SK? | ||
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On March 10 2012 14:22 TheToast wrote: Why would you assume there is a double stack instead of assuming there is a Mafia vig? You jumped to conclusions really fast after the day post. Only person to have put any pressure on you so far this game was Adam, and now he's dead. And three posts across 8 minutes? I love how you start out all calm about it then get more verbose in each successive post. Not confirmed anything yet, but this is enough to make me suspicious... I'll save you some time, I'm not the serial killer. You are right that it could have been a mafia vig. I had discounted the idea because to me mafia runs a huge risk keeping him till late game, he could shot or hung before they get to use him. Plus that would require sandroba's claim to be fake. I still think that there is like 90% assurance there is a SK. It explains things better. Surprisingly, no one has asked the really crucial question here; why did Paperscraps get killed last night? A vig who has used his shot is not threat to scum, and if anything he was pulling a lot of attention away from the SK. So why was he killed? Mafia thought he was the SK? If that is true it makes sense for them to try and push for his lynch because he is a veteran (saves them shots). I'll take a look at those pushing Paperscraps yesterday. | ||
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 I have no idea where AKCT is, maybe he doesn't either? It sucks majorly that we have two lurkers at this stage of the game. I think this post of yours (Klicky) is really useful. Especially given Bluelightz's response On March 10 2012 21:02 Bluelightz wrote: Yeah decon I realized it but didnt bother to correct sorry :| How does Mafia have a medic(the sandroba hit?) As Snarfs pointed out only mafia have an incentive to hide information. Townies point out their mistakes so that others don't make the same ones. Mafia just hope that people don't notice. I am more concerned that he hasn't bothered offering any reads or any insight into other people's posting. He is still lurking despite me badgering him all game long to post so I am would be more than happy for him to swing. His behaviour does not make sense as town and at this stage of the game I can only assume he is doing this on purpose. ##vote Bluelightz | ||
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AKCT I hope your head is still in one piece cause it would be nice to have your input. Blulightz, any words at all? This place is like a morgue  From phone | ||
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Town Probulous I think Snarfs is town and I won't be voting for him. AKCT could be scum but I think that a Pandain town flip pretty much confirms him as town. His reaction to Pandain's gambit was really townie and since Pandain was town there is no way they could have planned that. It isn't much but given his filter and smashed head we don't have much else. That leaves Toast, Bluelightz and Decon. Of those Decon has been the most townie in the last day or so. TheToast Toast has been a little strange with his insistence that there may not be a SK. Yes, that is a possibility but given the shots and Decon's explanation of balance it makes sense to assume there is one. It's WIFOM but he was also the only one that Pandain really went after on Day 2. From a mafia perspective it makes sense to shoot Pandain so that he can't push a Toast lynch today. On Day 1 he defended me and FOS'd (sort of) sandroba with this post (Klicky), specifically On March 03 2012 00:03 TheToast wrote: His play so far this game has been weird, all he's done is shown up a few times to make some short stubby posts and then disappears again. Seems odd since every tutorial/analysis I've read says lurking is a bad way to play as Mafia. Shouldn't a vet like sandro know this? What does he have to gain as scum by lurking? I've got my money on SK, it makes the most sense. At this point I'm pretty convinced Probulous is town. The whole "spam" thing was rediculous, the list he posted served a purpose it wasn't just fluff. He's also been one of the most active members of this game so far, he's got just about the most posts to go through and there's really nothing that jumps out as specifically scummy. He's so far been pretty even handed with his analysis. This I had him pegged as town but then his he went after Pandain. Here he soft defends sandroba On March 06 2012 04:35 TheToast wrote: He also placed a really scummy vote ten minutes before the lynch which effectively sealed Misder's fate he is yet to acknowledge the truth in this. Our conversation went on for ages but ended up with Frankly I think there is a better case against Pandain. Sandro said a few pages back that he was requesting a replacement, so idk if he's got IRL stuff that's causing him to be lurky. I have to say though the posts he has made so far have been kind of strange and out of place. I want to see if he has any response to the accusations, the vet claim is interesting and could explain some of his posts but he needs to give us some reason to believe this. In all, I think he is a good lynch candidate, but Pandain is better IMO. On March 06 2012 09:05 TheToast wrote: Note he accepts that my argument is correct in that you should always vote for the SK over a townie but he doesn't accept that he has some fault in Misder's lynch. My basic premise is explained here (Klicky). It is worth reading the full conversation though. ...Why didn't you bring any of this up yesterday when I came up with the sandro is SK theory? I suppose it makes sense, but I still say if there is a confirmed scum you vote them over the SK. Pandain is confirmed scum IMO. If in your terrible reasoning that makes me scum, then whatever... However he did vote for sandroba pretty early with this post (Klicky). Overall I think he is scum but there are inconsistencies and I can explain most of his behaviour from a town perspective. Thus I am more happy to vote for his partner. Bluelightz On March 02 2012 10:19 Bluelightz wrote: I could see Pandain as scum, I'll explain later, I can't explain now cuz I got school work tho.  On March 03 2012 08:45 Bluelightz wrote: As Snarfs rightly pointed out, WTF?Oh, I forgot to tell I don't find Pandain scummy after I read his filter I made a case on Bluelightz here (Klicky). Specifically this bit On March 04 2012 07:25 Probulous wrote: He doesn't bother to respond at all eventhough he had been lurking and was around (Klicky). I've explained my suspicions of his recent play (Klicky). I have trouble reading Bluelightz because he is always scummy. The difference is that this game he has actively avoided being helpful. When he is town he says stuff that looks like mafia play but this game he has tried to avoid saying anything. ...You have been told numerous times not to post town/null lists. At least this time you label someone red. But your reason is so majorly hypocritical and stupid it hurts my brain. Jackal, from what I have read always lurks day 1. But the real kicker is that you then decide not to vote for him? Instead you vote for the person you called third party and then in the same post they changed to scum? You also left your vote there when it was clear he was never going to get lynched. That is an easy way to avoid responsibility... Toast may be scum but I am sure that Bluelightz is ##vote Bluelightz | ||
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Mafia can then shoot town overnight and end up in a 2-1-1 situation. If they push for a SK lynch they end up at 2-1 and can shoot for the win. If they don't shoot tonight or hit the SK they end up at 3-1-1 and town can win. Thus I think mafia will shoot for town tonight and just hope that the SK doesn't shoot the remaining mafia. In this situation they fight for another day and can push for a SK lynch to win. This is the stratedy that I would take if I was mafia and so bussing Bluelightz today makes sense to me. I have ignored the implications of the SK shooting because mafia have to WIFOM that for themselves. This is the information they know and so have to make a decision based on this alone. Of course if Bluelightz is town then mafia are in a much stronger position but the point is that they can still win if they bus him so it is not out of the question. | ||
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On March 12 2012 09:45 TheToast wrote: Prob this is ridiculous, Bluelightz calls me out as scum and suddenly I'm the #2 suspect??? Maybe you are working in tandem with him? Bussing Bluelightz for ability to take me down?  My logic is simple, I think Snarfs is town, and AKCT is probably town with Bluelightz scum. Thus it comes down to a choice between you and Decon. How can you be surprised that you are my second target if you think decon is town? Why is my insistence that there isn't an SK strange? There is still the very real possibility that there is a mafia vig who hit last night. The thing that's strange is your insistence that there IS and SK. The only way you could know that is if you WERE the SK or if you had some inside information that sandro's claim was real. So tell me, which is it? Again that requires a fake sandroba claim which makes no sense to me. Why do it? And in such a manner? You have yet to come up with a reasonable explanation for it. Then it would also require that scum hold that vigilante till night 3 which is a huge risk. Especially since if this is true then they shot Palmar night 2 who must have been near the top of potential medic protect lists given his indentification of sandroba as scum. If I was scum with a vig I would have doublestacked Palmar that night, just to be sure. In essence to explain the kill points you need a sandroba fake claim with a choice not to doublestack Palmar after he outed a scum. Hell if they thought they had the SK in their sights surely they would have doublestacked him. It makes almost no sense for a Vig to live as long as you claim. Finally take a look at decon's post regarding balance. For their to be a vig there must be 2 mafia total with one being a goon and the other a vig, not balanced. Yes it is possible but it highly highly unlikely and not a position to make decisions based on. I didn't FOS you for the hell of it. If we have an SK we need to figure out who it is and they need to die tomorrow. No one besides Adam has put any pressure on you all game, that's simply not healthy for town to have a completely 100% confirmed town player. Come again? Anyone that is 100% confirmed town at this stage of the game is gold. They lower the chance of lynching town and probably draw mafia shots. If not mafia have to WIFOM a possible medic protect. Confirmed town are awesome, what the hell was that statement? Adam died because he played a lurky game with bad reasoning for his votes and a ridiculous OMGUS case against me. You voted for him so don't go blaming that all on me. At least I put my thoughts on him loud and clear. You jumped on at the last minute. All to easy for SK to hide amongst town. And after I call you out, suddenly I'm scum and you use that as evidence against me? I'm only becoming more suspicious of you Probulous... See above, it is either you or decon and right now you look worse. I can't be 100% sure but I have to make a choice. | ||
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On March 12 2012 09:34 Bluelightz wrote: Oh, By the way scum are voting me ^^ Look, if I was scum wouldnt the other scum be trying to derail this? If I was SK I would've claimed no? Town WILL lose if we lynch the SK y'know, I'll lose too IF I was the SK right nao but im not. It may sound hard to believe but, I am town, trying to salvage this game. This may be my last post so, do what you will with this game Town Players, it's at your hands. You're still not making sense. A SK claim just means he dies tomorrow? Read my post, scum can still win with you as a bus. If you're town I will make you my Day 1 policy lynch because you have made no attempt until the last 24hrs to save yourself. You have given us nothing but excuses all game long and now you come back pleading. Finally I hope that AKCT comes back soon because otherwise we have no chance of winning. A Modkill on a probable townie even with a scum lynch gives us 2-1-1 which is a loss. I am pretty pissed right now because I have never reached end game and this one is going to be fucked by people not making their alignments clear. | ||
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AKCT if you are reading this you need to vote or you will be modkilled and we fucking lose. | ||
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On March 10 2012 10:16 deconduo wrote: If you want useful reads: -Paper is SK. -Probulous, Toast are town -Snarfs, Blue, AKCT are scum. Do you stand by these reads? Obviously not Paper but they others. | ||
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