Mr. Wiggles Mini Mafia II - Page 7

On March 07 2012 16:59 Paperscraps wrote:
Don't forget we could have had medic saves!

On March 02 2012 19:59 Probulous wrote:
Jackal given you said this in Mafia L



Would you shoot Sandroba if you had a gun this game. I agree with Palmar that he has been hiding which is scummy as hell. His case on Pandain is insubstantial and he isn't here. I have never played with him but since Jackal has a history of recognising Sandroba's scum, I think your opinion here would be useful.

On March 03 2012 06:04 Probulous wrote:
Sandroba, you're not helping yourself. The quote from Jackal in L corresponds very well to your current play. This is why I want Jackal's opinion. He shot you then, would he shoot you now? Toast is right to call you out for lack of contribution. Your response enforces his case.
##vote Sandroba

On March 03 2012 11:11 Probulous wrote:
Adam I am not sheeping Palmar. You hadn't produced anything of note until recently. Sandrona is actively lurking and seemingly has no interest in this game. When he is town he has shown skill in putting together decent cases. He isn't even bothering to try this game. He played like this L where he was scum. Add those together and you get mafia.

On March 06 2012 08:12 Probulous wrote:


I don't know why you say there is no resistance to him being lynched. Toast is screaming blue murder that you are scum. If my team is correct then blue is soft-bussing which is unsurprising. The way I see it these are the possible explanations for Sandroba "hit"

Fake Claim

• He is trying to gain cred by faking a claimed hit.
  
• Serial Killer / Mafia - Helps him avoid suspicion Day 2
  
• Town - Clears his name to some extent

The implications of this are that there may not be a SK. The problem with the fake claim is that the benefit for him is minimal. The way he claimed makes him look less like a veteran than someone who got medic saved and no town medic would save him. I believe he was shot.

Real Claim

• He survived a hit and claimed it
  
• Serial Killer - Knows someone has hit him and wants to flush that person out.
  
• Mafia - Knows that someone has hit him and will claim the hit if they are a vigilante. The vig gets town cred and he looks bad for not claiming the hit so he does it first. The claim also might flush out the shooter. The SK could act like a vig too so either way he had to claim.
  
• Veteran - He has been shot and can excuse his crappy play as an attempt to get shot.

The issue I have with the veteran claim is the manner in which he claimed it. Most vets celebrate when they get shot, they have achieved their aim. His was a BTW sort of admission. Combined with his lurky play I don't believe his vet claim. That leaves SK or mafia. I don't agree with Pandain that he isn't being defended. Toast is pretty vehement that Pandain is scum. Chainsaw much?

A Sandroba lynch will confirm the existence of a Serial Killer if he flips Veteran (unlikely). If he flips scum we celebrate and we know they have a medic. If he flips SK we have removed a potential issue for town. He isn't playing well and I would guess would probably shoot town before he shoots scum.

On March 06 2012 08:28 Probulous wrote:


You reasoning rests of two assumptions

• He is the SK
  
• Mafia would defend him if he was scum

The first can only be confirmed by a flip. The second is big. He was scummy since Day 1 and was almost lynched. Then he was shot overnight. Despite all this he has not attempted to provide any analysis at all. Anyone straight up defending him would have to use really weird logic or a chainsaw defense. Surely it is better to let him swing and waste town's time on someone who is clearly not town. Plus they can gain a little cred for his flip and can hide amongst the rest of the votes. I don't see why this is unlikely. If he is mafia they have a medic and he clearly isn't it (he can't protect himself).

On March 02 2012 12:58 Adam4167 wrote:
I find Palmar interesting, as I do in every one of our games. I think his exchange with you from yesterday was an exercise in stating the obvious, something I don't expect from him. As I said to him yesterday, everything he was stating was stuff that townies should already be doing and the fact that he needed to stress it across 4 posts shows that he is either just talking for the sake of putting words on a page, or he has no faith in this town. Right now, I am leaning towards he is not town

On March 03 2012 08:27 Adam4167 wrote:

These reads are only a fraction better then the list Misder posted, useless and effortless. You label me as scum yet you never follow it up. Why aren't you pressing me to try and find out my alignment if you think I could be 'scummer'. I think its because you have zero interest in finding scum. Look at his town play: Hammer Mini Mafia He is aggressive, he presses his reads. He doesn't give a shit what the rest of the town is doing. Contrast that with what we've seen so far this game.
##Vote Palmar

On March 06 2012 08:55 Adam4167 wrote:
I was occupied with life events yesterday, hence my inactivity for a large portion of it. Its far too late in the day to start pushing another case. Id like to see a resolution to this night-hit situation.
##Vote sandroba

On March 06 2012 11:38 Adam4167 wrote:
I'm posting from my phone so I can't quote stuff.
Prob, I already stated why I'm on the sandroba lynch in that post. It's too late in the day for me to push the cases I want to push, so I'm bandwagon voting on sandroba to try and get a better grasp on what happened last night. I like other lynches better but convincing at least 4 people to move off of sandroba is something that would take more time then we had when I voted.
It's a shit vote and I know it, but my vote going anywhere else is just as shit, considering the current vote tally.

On March 06 2012 11:46 Probulous wrote:
Well this is completely illogical. Your last sentence implies that sandroba is getting lynched regardless of your vote. The rest of your post suggests you want a conclusion to the night hit. Well combining those would suggest that you will get that conclusion regardless of how you vote.
In this situation it would make sense to stick with your reads. If people switch to your reads then great, if not you get clarification on the hit. Either way it looks like you don't believe he is scum, so why vote for him? You're taking the easy way out and I don't like it. Town Adam doesn't do things the easy way.

On March 07 2012 19:33 deconduo wrote: Given the missing KP, I'm inclined to think Paper is SK, and was worried about being tracked. Jackal was a blue read for me, which would explain why Paper would go after him. When none of the bodies flipped Tracker, he claimed the shot figuring if he didn't he'd lynched on the spot if he had been tracked. Its a bit of a stretch, but I can't see anything else that makes more sense. It also explains why he would wait for the day post.

On March 07 2012 22:42 deconduo wrote:
I don't think its a stretch to think we'd have a Tracker + Watcher but no medic. However, what I think doesn't really matter, its what Paper thought at the day post. He claimed exactly one minute after the post, so he didn't have time to think about his decision. He was obviously waiting for something, and was going base his claim on the contents of the day post.

On March 08 2012 03:09 Paperscraps wrote:
I wanted town to know as much as possible about how the KP was distributed. In hindsight I should have claimed before day post, but this is the first time I have been a vig in a forum game. A lot of people fosed Jackal at the end of the night. Jackal even posted right after me, so he was obviously around, but didn't post relevant material during the night. If he had scum hunted during the night that would have swayed my decision.

On March 06 2012 20:58 Paperscraps wrote:It seems like everyone thinks Decon is town except for me, so I could very well be wrong. I will be objective about this and look into the filters of others I think are scummy. inb4 "you are backpedaling scum"

On March 07 2012 07:16 TheToast wrote:
If Sandro's claim is true, and there is an SK; top people to question/track/watch should be Paper, and Jackal.

On March 08 2012 09:31 Adam4167 wrote:What kind of stupid scum strategy is it to attack the most townie looking person? Scum buddy the big townie while picking them off at night.

On March 08 2012 09:39 Adam4167 wrote:
You say "Adam is more important today. He has the ability to sway people with flimsy cases". Implying I need to die first because of what i'm saying.

Of course I didn't answer your question, I clicked post before it was even on my screen, look at the time-stamp -_-.
I do still think you're scum, if this is your town play, then I had a very different picture in my head of what town Probulous should look like.

On March 08 2012 09:45 Adam4167 wrote:
Why do you assume that I would only do thing in that manner? Scum are cold and calculating, they wont post something half assed for fear of making mistakes. Again, more WIFOM from both of us.

I started writing that as the day post came down, the fact that you stated you wanted to lynch me was coincidental. My job is to find scum, yes, I had a read on you, so I voiced it. Wheres the problem? could my read be wrong? absolutely. Doesn't mean i'm just going to keep it to myself.

On February 01 2012 13:05 Adam4167 wrote:


Right. I'm resorting to paint here (oh gawd) to try and get a clearer picture of what everyone is saying.

After taking in everyone's reads, I find these are the two most likely scum teams: Chocoloate/Zelblade or Simberto/SacredSystem

As we begin to flip more of these names, this picture will solve itself. I am content with flipping anyone in the above diagram, with a special preference for Chocolate for the previously mentioned reasons.

On February 01 2012 12:09 Adam4167 wrote:
After rereading the thread in its entirety, ive noticed something.

Zarepath pushing CosmosXAM as a lynch candidate on day 1 stemmed partly from CosmosXAM pointing the finger a Chocolate for being 'suspicious'. This is a textbook example of what is known as a 'Chainsaw Defense', which is when one mafia gets attacked by a townie, another mafia attacks the accuser to deflect suspicion back on the townie. Its right Here at the bottom of that horrible WIFOM'ey defense of FakePromise.

Add on top of this, both times I've called him mafia, hes come out of lurker mode.

I'm seeing too much in favor of voting for Chocolate, and not enough redeeming him.
##Vote Chocolate



One thing that sticks out to me in Simberto's filter is the continual redirects onto balt11t. And There Are Lots And Lots Of Them

So I guess I am posed with the question of was he doing this to pick up the 'town cred' after we inevitably killed balt? (because lets face it, that was going to happen, sooner rather than later)

On March 08 2012 08:04 Probulous wrote:

This seems to be the crux of the issue. If Paper was worried about being tracked he would have to claim the shot. Now unfortunately that makes sense whether he is a Vig, Mafia or SK. If he is worried that someone has seen him shoot then he needs to claim even if he is blue. Otherwise they claim and his counterclaim looks terrible, so the claim itself doesn't make him scum.

As for waiting for the day post that again doesn't make sense from a mafia, vig or SK POV. If he was worried about being tracked it would have better if he was any of these roles to claim before the day post. Again that would lend his claim credibility, regardless of whether he was vig, mafia or SK. I honestly think it was a mistake or just not knowing what to do in that case. This makes me think he is either a Vig or SK, his mafia buddy would surely have pointed that out to him (a tad of WIFOM here so tread with caution).

Yes, he was waiting to see whether Jackal died. The problem as above, is that you have separate the motivations between a Vig, mafia or SK shot and his timing is bad for all three.


This is where we can tell whether Paperscraps is town or not. His motivation for shooting Jackal. He says that Jackal was looking scummy, which is true. He had FOS'd Jackal since the Misder vote. Yes he was on decon more but it was not like he suddenly decided Jackal was scum. This quote in hindsight looks promising

Note this post from Toast

It is not unreasonable for Paper to believe he was being tracked. He was on the scummy list of a few people and had been called out in the thread as a track target.

In conclusion, as shocking as this sounds I believe Paperscraps is a vigilante. I think he second guessed himself about Decon and so shot his second target. He was concerned about being tracked so claimed the hit when he thought it best. The hope was that he would have his named cleared when Jackal flipped scum. Was it the best play? Hell no but it makes sense to me.

If nothing else note his persistance in trying to clear his name. He is clearly frustrated but is putting in the effort to try and make his thinking clear. Compare that to Adam, who is apparently still too busy to participate. Decon I agree it would be nice to lower KP with a SK lynch but I don't believe that Paper is the SK (if we have one). We lynch Adam today.

On March 09 2012 06:56 TheToast wrote:
***The last two here are really interesting. I want to go back to something I said before. If the hit against Sandro was real, and it came from the SK: the SK would be likely to believe Sandro's vet claim. After all, the SK would know that Sandro got shot and didn't die, why wouldn't you believe the vet claim?

On March 09 2012 07:03 TheToast wrote:
While there is a good case against Paper, it really does hinge on Sandro's claim. While I think his claim was real (Probulous made a good point somewhere about this) lynching someone based on it just risks too much in terms of walking into a scum trap. If someone sees something I missed that adds to the evidence then I would say he should be lynched but right now the evidence is so circumstancial....

On March 09 2012 07:24 TheToast wrote:
Back to the other issue, what do you think should be the D3 lynch priority?

On March 07 2012 09:59 Pandain wrote:
Palmar is town or badass sk. Jackal COULD be SK but I'm leaning towards not. He's definitely not playing pro town....

bluelightz/adam/jackal one or more of them is mafia.

On March 09 2012 07:42 Snarfs wrote:
I think you're confusing something. Pandain was never pushing for a Sandroba lynch. He was actively against it.

The issue I have with the veteran claim is the manner in which he claimed it. Most vets celebrate when they get shot, they have achieved their aim. His was a BTW sort of admission. Combined with his lurky play I don't believe his vet claim. That leaves SK or mafia. I don't agree with Pandain that he isn't being defended. Toast is pretty vehement that Pandain is scum. Chainsaw much?

A Sandroba lynch will confirm the existence of a Serial Killer if he flips Veteran (unlikely). If he flips scum we celebrate and we know they have a medic. If he flips SK we have removed a potential issue for town. He isn't playing well and I would guess would probably shoot town before he shoots scum.

On March 06 2012 08:19 Pandain wrote:
And toast is negligient, he merely is focused on me because I've been focused on him. He's been on me since day 1, and he hasn't supported Sandroba. There is effectively no support for Sandroba. But again, this only indicates he's not scum, as they wouldn't just let him(and he wouldn't be so lethargic about getting lynched), die when theres a valid excuse. But I'm not even denying that Sandroba is probably scum. The key fact is that by lynching him we effectively waste a day to either confirm what we already assumed(he's SK), or the fact that he's a vet(in which case we just lynched a town woopdie doo). If we make him unable to shoot for fear of getting caught, then we don't even have to worry about him harming town.

On March 06 2012 08:28 Probulous wrote:
You reasoning rests of two assumptions

• He is the SK
  
• Mafia would defend him if he was scum

The first can only be confirmed by a flip. The second is big. He was scummy since Day 1 and was almost lynched. Then he was shot overnight. Despite all this he has not attempted to provide any analysis at all. Anyone straight up defending him would have to use really weird logic or a chainsaw defense. Surely it is better to let him swing and waste town's time on someone who is clearly not town. Plus they can gain a little cred for his flip and can hide amongst the rest of the votes. I don't see why this is unlikely. If he is mafia they have a medic and he clearly isn't it (he can't protect himself).

On March 06 2012 08:37 Pandain wrote:
I actually change my mind, but mainly for two reasons:

1. By having tracker continuously track him, it wastes tracker time when he could be finding more scum(and tracker tracking new people is arguably more important then finding out more evidence).
2. Mafia KP is hidden, so the SK might not actually exist.

On March 06 2012 12:16 Pandain wrote:
If you care to take a look, my thought process was clear and logical. No one ended up pointing out the flaws in the plan which I would later discover on my own, so when I did discover them I changed. I wouldn't change because of Toast lol.