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I'll try and make my case simple to understand because what I wrote obviously isn't clear.
If Adam is mafia
If Adam is mafia he knows that AKCT didn't shoot RG. When Pandain claims that AKCT visited RG he knows that either Pandain was tracking AKCT or he was watching RG. If Pandain was watching RG then he knows that Pandain is lying. He also knows that Pandain knows who shot RG. Thus the best play is to counterclaim. Now, there is no point claiming until you know that Pandain was watching RG. Hence the question. It solidifies the best play for mafia.
If Adam is town
Pandain says AKCT visited RG who died over night. Therefore AKCT is likely to be the shooter. Pandain has already made his suspicion of AKCT clear thus there is no reason to believe he was more likely to watch RG over tracking ACKT. If Pandain had claimed tracker, does that make his claim invalid? The answer to the question provides nothing useful.
I hope this is clear to people.
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I noted Toast's crazy voting earlier. I am waiting for his explanation before I vote for him. The fact that he has been away for so long and that he said he was having ISP issues makes me think his absence is not just avoidance.
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♥ Mattchew on the ball 
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On March 05 2012 13:23 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2012 08:37 Paperscraps wrote:
Ok so Sandroba claims vet or saved by medic. Why would Sandroba have been targeted as all last night? I don't think a medic would have been on Sandroba either. Thus that leaves the vet claim. Honestly I think Sandroba is SK that is claiming a fake hit.
Theres an option 3 here. Sandroba is an SK that is claiming a real hit (from the mafia): Show nested quote +On February 25 2012 12:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Serial Killer: You are a Serial Killer! Each night, starting night 1, you may send in a night hit. In addition, you have one extra night life.
I thought of this but this quote makes me less certain.
On March 03 2012 17:12 sandroba wrote:
Wait for me to kill bitches b4 you shoot me thx
If he was SK he wouldn't be worried about getting shot. We haven't had a vig claim the shot so it could only have come from mafia which makes zero sense. Why target someone who was the leading vote getter the day before? No I think he was a saved by a medic. I agree with Paperscraps that a town medic saving Sandroba is just not credible. So we are left with veteran or mafia medic. He was under pressure and was worried about dying so a mafia medic protect makes sense. His way of claiming the shot doesn't ring Vet to me. Vets normally celebrate when they are shot.
Finally you can credit Pandain with redeeming you. His explanation of your question made me read your filter again and aside from that question, the rest could be town. Hence
##unvote
Bluelightz, I repeat my earlier warning, provide something useful or I will push for your lynch.
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On March 05 2012 13:47 Bluelightz wrote:
No, I don't feel guilty, I was just saying that if I get mislynched blaime will be on Pandain.
Ok that's it
##vote Bluelightz
You are around enough to post but not enough to provide content. Not a single little tiny little morsel of usefullness. I outlined in my previous post what you had to do and that was yesterday. Since then all you have done is provide excuses. You have been here all day, you have posted regularly but you haven't even bothered to point out anything about anyone. Today you swing.
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On March 05 2012 13:47 Probulous wrote:I thought of this but this quote makes me less certain. Show nested quote +On March 03 2012 17:12 sandroba wrote:
Wait for me to kill bitches b4 you shoot me thx If he was SK he wouldn't be worried about getting shot. We haven't had a vig claim the shot so it could only have come from mafia which makes zero sense. Why target someone who was the leading vote getter the day before? No I think he was a saved by a medic. I agree with Paperscraps that a town medic saving Sandroba is just not credible. So we are left with veteran or mafia medic. He was under pressure and was worried about dying so a mafia medic protect makes sense. His way of claiming the shot doesn't ring Vet to me. Vets normally celebrate when they are shot.
I am not making a habit of quoting myself I just realised I completely missed one possibility. The one that Paperscraps was saying 
Sandroba could be an SK claiming a fake shot. I don't know that an SK would give up the possibility to shoot for the credit that comes with claiming the hit. Especially that he didn't staight up claim veteran. I still think it more likely that he got hit and saved by a medic. I just can't tell whether it was a town or mafia medic.
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On February 25 2012 12:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Possible Mafia Roles:
Medic: You are a Medic! Each night you may choose to protect one player from a night hit! You may not protect yourself. You will be notified if you successfully protect your target.
Read the OP.
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Palmar, Decon, Jackal, Snarfs, Toast, sandroba all disappeared. Come on guys we can't play this by ourselves.
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On March 06 2012 01:14 TheToast wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2012 07:49 Probulous wrote:
TheToast
You deliberately chose to vote for someone who was not going to be lynched. Your vote was at 11:50 and you voted for Pandain who had two votes at the time. It was obvious that only Sandroba or Misder were possible candidates because everyone had already placed their votes. Yours was last. You effectively chose Misder over Sandroba without saying so.
Explain.
How do you know that he wasn't going to be lynched? 10 minutes is more than enough time for two people to change their votes; I've seen it happen before. I wasn't the only one with my vote on Pandain, RG did as well; I think (and still think) there was more than enough reason to vote him for lynch. I also posted my analysis of Pandain, it's not like I just dropped a vote and left. I would have done it sooner but I had IRL stuff that was in the way. Fact is I didn't have a good read on Misder and I was at the time pretty sure Sandro was the SK. I think Pandain was the better day 1 lynch.
This is not an explanation. Like you said there was 10 minutes left. So you drop a vote on someone who was neither first or second on the list. When you made that vote you were effectively choosing Misder. If there was only 10 minutes left, why did you leave it there? You say "it's not like I just dropped a vote and left" but either you did leave the thread immediately, or you chose to keep your vote on someone who was clearly not getting lynched. The fact that you say "I was at the time pretty sure Sandro was the SK" and he was second in votes yet you didn't vote for him is damning in my eyes.
Updated scum list
Sandroba
TheToast
Bluelightz
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I try and make this brief
- You didn't think Misder was scum
- You thought sandroba was SK
- Both had the same number of votes but Misder reached there first.
- You voted Pandain.
- Misder gets lynched.
You were around when the lynch went down, you could see that no-one was switching. Pushing for a Pandain lynch is fine but you cannot deny that you chose not to lynch the SK. Now you say that the SK would be working for town. That's a big assumption. How do you know he shoots straight?
More importantly you chose to let someone you didn't think was scum die just so you could vote for Pandain.
Either you did drop your vote and leave in which case you have lied to us, OR you watched Misder get lynched (someone you thought was town) and chose to keep the SK alive.
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It's simple Toast, you had choice to keep your vote on Pandain and watch a townie die, or put your vote on Sandroba and watch a SK die. I have pushed the others who voted on different targets and most (beside Blue) have given decent reasoning. Whilst the people who voted Misder could be scum they could also be town who believed they were voting for mafia.
Now you say that the SK would shoot mafia. That much is obvious. I go back to my previous point. He doesn't know who mafia are (he could shoot town) and we have to kill him before the end of the game. Obviously it is better to lynch mafia over the SK, but it is better to lynch the SK over town.
You can't dodge your responsibility here. As far as I can tell from the posts around that time the only two people posting were you and Snarfs. Snarfs voted for Sandroba which tied the votes and then you voted for Pandain. You never even addressed Snarfs. You posted 10 minutes before the deadline and then sat back and watched nothing change.
As for proving you're town, a defense that I might have accepted would have been that you misread the voting rules and thought a no-lynch was going to happen. Or even if you could point to somewhere in your filter where you say that both Misder and Sandroba are town (that's what Adam did). Instead you say you think Sandroba is the SK but you didn't nail him to the wall. Instead you watched Misder swing and you could have done something about it.
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On March 06 2012 07:43 Pandain wrote:
There's no reason to vote sandroba, he's not scum(no resistance at all)so that leaves either sk or town. Rather than vote him, we should merely track him. This will effectively negate any chance of him shooting again. I do believe he's sk but feel this is A better alternative as it encompasses all the reasons we would want to lynch sk without the risk of lynching town. We should use today instead as an opportunity to lynch scum.
I don't know why you say there is no resistance to him being lynched. Toast is screaming blue murder that you are scum. If my team is correct then blue is soft-bussing which is unsurprising. The way I see it these are the possible explanations for Sandroba "hit"
Fake Claim- He is trying to gain cred by faking a claimed hit.
- Serial Killer / Mafia - Helps him avoid suspicion Day 2
- Town - Clears his name to some extent
The implications of this are that there may not be a SK. The problem with the fake claim is that the benefit for him is minimal. The way he claimed makes him look less like a veteran than someone who got medic saved and no town medic would save him. I believe he was shot.
Real Claim- He survived a hit and claimed it
- Serial Killer - Knows someone has hit him and wants to flush that person out.
- Mafia - Knows that someone has hit him and will claim the hit if they are a vigilante. The vig gets town cred and he looks bad for not claiming the hit so he does it first. The claim also might flush out the shooter. The SK could act like a vig too so either way he had to claim.
- Veteran - He has been shot and can excuse his crappy play as an attempt to get shot.
The issue I have with the veteran claim is the manner in which he claimed it. Most vets celebrate when they get shot, they have achieved their aim. His was a BTW sort of admission. Combined with his lurky play I don't believe his vet claim. That leaves SK or mafia. I don't agree with Pandain that he isn't being defended. Toast is pretty vehement that Pandain is scum. Chainsaw much?
A Sandroba lynch will confirm the existence of a Serial Killer if he flips Veteran (unlikely). If he flips scum we celebrate and we know they have a medic. If he flips SK we have removed a potential issue for town. He isn't playing well and I would guess would probably shoot town before he shoots scum.
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On March 06 2012 08:01 TheToast wrote:
Probulous, by your logic vig's should all be lynched day 1 too. Because that's exactly what the SK is, an extra town vig. I've given my reasons for what I did and honestly, you aren't the mayor here so I don't have to defend myself to you anymore that I have already. Pandain is scum. I wanted to lynch him. That's all there was to it.
A vig that shoots repeatedly and wins when town dies is not the same as a normal vig. You can't deny that the existence of a SK is a danger to town. It means there is more KP around that needs town to die to win. Like I said, it makes sense for an SK to go after mafia but ultimately he has to go after town as well. So as town we lynch Mafia>SK>Town.
Show nested quote +
As for proving you're town, a defense that I might have accepted would have been that you misread the voting rules and thought a no-lynch was going to happen. Or even if you could point to somewhere in your filter where you say that both Misder and Sandroba are town (that's what Adam did).
What is this? Fine, next time I'll lie to you and tell you what you want to hear. lol Also Sandroba is not town, that much is pretty obvious.
No you don't lie. All I was saying is that there non-summy reasons for doing what you did, but they aren't the reasons you had. Your actions could have come from town but your reasoning confirms you as scum. Anyway I am voting for sandroba today as his lynch gives me more information than yours and is more likely to succeed. But you will be on my lynch list tomorrow.
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On March 06 2012 08:19 Pandain wrote:
And toast is negligient, he merely is focused on me because I've been focused on him. He's been on me since day 1, and he hasn't supported Sandroba.
There is effectively no support for Sandroba. But again, this only indicates he's not scum, as they wouldn't just let him(and he wouldn't be so lethargic about getting lynched), die when theres a valid excuse.
But I'm not even denying that Sandroba is probably scum. The key fact is that by lynching him we effectively waste a day to either confirm what we already assumed(he's SK), or the fact that he's a vet(in which case we just lynched a town woopdie doo). If we make him unable to shoot for fear of getting caught, then we don't even have to worry about him harming town.
You reasoning rests of two assumptions- He is the SK
- Mafia would defend him if he was scum
The first can only be confirmed by a flip. The second is big. He was scummy since Day 1 and was almost lynched. Then he was shot overnight. Despite all this he has not attempted to provide any analysis at all. Anyone straight up defending him would have to use really weird logic or a chainsaw defense. Surely it is better to let him swing and waste town's time on someone who is clearly not town. Plus they can gain a little cred for his flip and can hide amongst the rest of the votes. I don't see why this is unlikely. If he is mafia they have a medic and he clearly isn't it (he can't protect himself).
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Jackal, so far you have been as useful as tits on a bull.
You survived night 1 which was your reason for lurking day 1. Well it is day 2 and we have nothing from you. What is your reason today? If this keeps up I will have to assume you don't care about town winning and so must be scum. You're good at this game gives us something.
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On March 06 2012 08:37 Pandain wrote:
2. Mafia KP is hidden, so the SK might not actually exist.
This will hopefully get clarified by the sandroba lynch. If he flips SK then obviously there was one. If he is veteran then we can assume he was shot and so there are two KP meaning there is a SK. If he is mafia, who cares? If he is town then my mind is full of fuck.
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On March 05 2012 18:25 deconduo wrote:Why would he be worried about getting shot if he knew he had a medic to save him? In fact, I think SK is far far more likely as they would have the most to lose by getting shot; losing their night life. A mafia with a medic to back them up is basically immune to night hits, so shouldn't be worried at all.
On March 06 2012 07:52 deconduo wrote:
I agree that he isn't scum, but he's almost certainly SK. We're better off lynching him now, rather than letting him get another shot off.
Paper, decon doesn't read as scum to me. Your case was that he was pushing bad cases. Well when it was clear they weren't happening (me) he dropped it. That could be scum or town. Misder disappeared and never responded to anything so it would be monumentally stupid of decon to remove his vote without something to explain it. I mean if Misder could get off by just not saying anything then we would never lynch mafia. He followed through with his case and was wrong. At least he was clear on his intention to lynch Misder.
Compare that with Toast's actions. He chose to not to vote for his "SK" and let a townie swing. His actions are far more scummy than decon. Sandroba has been actively useless (is there such a thing?). He is around and posts enough to avoid the modkill but doesn't bother to add anything of use.
Is there anything more to your case than his bad reads?
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On March 04 2012 09:05 Adam4167 wrote:
I also didn't vote for sandroba on similar reasons, I think he is being lazy or just plain doesn't give a shit, which is not indicative of his alignment to me.So I was presented with the 'choice' of voting for two people, neither of which I find overly scummy. So I decided to provoke Palmar, partly because I feel his play is different to what I expect from town Palmar, partly to gain a better read on him in case I am wrong and he is town.
On March 05 2012 08:30 Adam4167 wrote:
Don't forget attack Palmar, I've done plenty of that as well. How does any of that make me scum and only scum? You are assuming Sandroba's guilt from his lack of effort (something BOTH of you were doing) and then inferring my guilt from that.
From this I read suspicion of Palmar for his case against sandroba. Therefore in terms of likelihood of being mafia
Palmar > sandroba.
On March 05 2012 13:23 Adam4167 wrote:Bluelightz, why are you giving up so easily after one vote? Compared to your play in Normal Mini Mafia I, where you had 4 votes piled on you the first day and you tried to defend yourself.Do you feel guilty again, like in Student Mafia?
Suspicion of Bluelightz, therefore likelihood of mafia
Bluelightz > sandroba.
On March 06 2012 08:55 Adam4167 wrote:
Its far too late in the day to start pushing another case. Id like to see a resolution to this night-hit situation.
##Vote sandroba
What happened?
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EPT
