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mderg
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On February 03 2012 00:33 Bluelightz wrote: Lurkers: Mderg: No posts *yawn* Really... I just got home and already accused of lurking. There are different timezones, you know. On February 02 2012 13:33 Sinensis wrote: I want to hear everyone say at least one thing before we decide who to kill first... that doesn't change the fact that there are people on this ship who must be killed in the name of the emperor. As of right now we outnumber the scum, killing randomly seems like it will statistically cripple our chances. On February 02 2012 15:41 Sinensis wrote: We should kill the first night, and I should say who dies. Day 1 in a unique time because no one not you, me, or the Chaos scum knows who anyone else is yet. Anyone's guess is as good as random, and random buys us exactly 25% right now. Since our odds are only going to get worse from here, I say we take them. I will use a random number generator to decide which of this crew is executed. This seems very odd. First you say we shouldn´t kill randomly and only a short time after that you already change your mind drastically. I won´t vote for you now but you should explain yourself. Also: On February 02 2012 13:33 Sinensis wrote: I have the same position as Timeaisis. On February 02 2012 13:52 Timeaisis wrote: Agreed. On February 02 2012 15:50 Timeaisis wrote: I agree. This is a bit strange, Sinensis and Timeaisis seem to have the same opinion on everything until now. We can´t really make a conclusion solely based on this but a connection is certainly possible. So I´ll keep my eyes on you. (but that counts for everyone) | ||
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On February 03 2012 01:29 Nisani201 wrote: You guys make this too easy. ##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel Care to explain your reason for voting him? | ||
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On February 03 2012 05:45 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: I'm back. I have a history of voting for people who fluff. My primary reason being that they're derailing the discussion and possibly doing it on behalf of scumteam, but also because, at least in the beginning, these are the kind of people impeding progress anyway. Like if there's 7 of us left with 2 mafia and 5 towns, I wouldn't advocate a lynch like that because we need all the votes and information we can get to lynch the right people, as if we lynch a random townie we won't get his power (if blue) and the next day it's 3 townies and 2 mafia left. lynch or lose that day, then the next there's 2 towns and 1 mafia, another lynch or lose. Right now however it's not that drastic. It's 9 on 3. Best case scenario we lynch the right person, mafia kills one of us and it's 8 on 2. Much more favorable odds. Even better if the doc manages to bring that up to 9 on 2. Worst case scenario it's 7 on 3, townie lynched and townie shot. This is pretty bad, but unless we lynch the vigilante then we can still pull out with a well-placed bullet. I don't like this scenario, but accidents do happen. Pretty much every plan I can think of in my semi-awake state gets blocked by that damn hedonist. I think I'll take a nap and then get back to this. Did I understand it right that the day 1 lynch isn´t as important to you as other lynches? This can give scum a good opportunity to vote without proper reason... and that´s not what we want. Also I don´t like how you just assume there´s a Vigilante and a Hedonist in this game. The setup is semi-open, so we can´t be sure about that. Especially "knowing" about a Hedonist in the game indicates that you might be scum... a town player shouldn´t know that. These are minor aspects off your play and don´t mean you´re scum, but right now you´re my top suspect. Along with the easily following the votes on Sinensis it justifies a vote from me. ##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel | ||
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On February 03 2012 10:09 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Before I left I saw a sudden surge of votes for me. I expected people to just copy and paste that voting button and lynch lynch lynch. The sudden surge of votes was 3 votes in around 5 hours and there wasn´t anyone just deeming you scum, so you shouldn´t have worried about being lynched. There´s no way a town player would place the hammer vote on someone who´s only suspicious but not cleared as scum. At least not this early in the day. On February 03 2012 10:09 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: I feel like I have addressed and refuted his every point. You at least addressed all my points and gave reasons for everything you said. I wouldn´t say you refuted every point because these reasons were be pretty easy to find, even if my post would be right in every point. But there aren´t any logical flaws in your reasoning, so I can´t deem you scum. On February 03 2012 12:43 Timeaisis wrote: Good to know. This post shows no intention of finding scum. It seems like you´re just pissed at him because he thinks of you as suspicious. It could also be that you´re scum and try to make this look like a ridiculous read by him. But at least posting something that was already called suspicious on purpose doesn´t feel right to me. On February 03 2012 16:36 Bluelightz wrote: This makes me suspicious of him, are you trying to lead town to not believe that there is a Hedonist? Sentinel's post could easily be a guess No I´m not. There could very well be a Hedonist in the setup. But IMO every speculation about the setup is stupid on day 1... we have no hints on it other than the possible roles, so we should focus on finding scum rather than thinking about how many of which roles are in the game. So I didn´t/don´t want something like this: On February 03 2012 16:36 Bluelightz wrote: before we can know anything about the setup.@Sentinel I take back my setup guess so my latest guess of each and I think the setup is 1 DT & Medic + 7 vt + 2 scum + 1 rb On February 03 2012 16:36 Bluelightz wrote: On his first paragraph, There is no way people can vote without reason on day1(not including sheeping). Would people just go away and just leave posts saying ##Vote: __________? I never said people could vote without reason. What I meant is that scum could get away with weak reasons or just getting on bandwagons and then argue that they were just voting for weak reasons because it wasn´t that damaging to town. On February 03 2012 16:36 Bluelightz wrote: Also coupled with some lurking wtf? | ||
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On February 02 2012 13:52 Timeaisis wrote: Agreed. On February 02 2012 15:50 Timeaisis wrote: I agree. On February 03 2012 06:20 Timeaisis wrote: But since we have a vote rolling for Sentinel, that's the way I'm going. On February 03 2012 06:37 Timeaisis wrote: And yeah, I agree with mderg that you are probably scum. This also seems odd to me. You agreed with others and went with the flow quite often. This might indicate a lack of interest to bring in much of your own thoughts, something I see more on the scummy side. Doesn´t make you scum but: FoS: Timeaisis | ||
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On February 04 2012 02:36 TheToast wrote: I highly doubt that Timeaisis is scum. First is the fact that he is a first time Mafia, GM is not the kind of host that would put a first time player on scumteam. Very quick way for the game to be over. That´s only speculation... and I don´t like speculation in mafia. On February 04 2012 02:36 TheToast wrote: His vote against Vilonis also tips me off that he is townie, Mafia would not want to draw extra attention to themselves like that. First time Mafia also tend to want to lurk to avoid causing any suspecion. Also his current vote is on Sentinel. Most of us seem to be in agreement that there is a good chance Sentinel is scum, a view I hope you would support since that's who you have voted. Mafia (epsecially first time Mafia) are not going to jump onto the bandwagon of one of their own. His analysis is not very good. Going with the flow does not indicate scummyness, actually probably the oposite. His vote against Vilonis doesn´t clear him at all. It´s typical to call out players who didn´t post any content, regardless of alignment. You are probably right about first time mafia not jumping on a bandwagon of their own, but it´s not certain that Sentinel is scum. Of course Timeaisis would be pretty much cleared as town, if Sentinel flipped town. IMO Going with the flow does indicate scummyness, if there´s a bandwagon on a townie, it´s pretty easy to hide in the majority. On February 04 2012 02:36 TheToast wrote: as I don't want to risk a townie getting bandwagoned. This sounds strange. Mafia always involves risks. I know what you mean, though. btw On February 04 2012 04:06 prplhz wrote: ##Vote: Timeasis Just want you to know that you misspelled his name... you should change that, if you want him lynched. some more coming later today | ||
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On February 04 2012 06:34 Sinensis wrote: guys I can't defend myself right now as I type this post will you please give me several hours to think of a way out of this or for my Chaos buddies to bail me out I think waiting for the lynch as long as possible is the right decision. What do we gain from lynching someone some hours earlier than possible? Nothing. We just lose time to discuss everything. | ||
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##Unvote: [UoN]Sentinel | ||
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On February 04 2012 09:09 prplhz wrote: @mderg Do you want a no-lynch? Do you think that Timeaisis is town? I want a lynch. But I´m not totally convinced of Timeaisis being scum (more than Sentinel, though,), so I didn´t vote him for now. Since there´s no other option right now I´ll pace my vote on Timeaisis. Vote: Timeaisis | ||
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On February 04 2012 11:21 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Let's break down what our friend here can be. Imperial Timeaisis, or even worse, Blue Timeaisis dying today, means I'm probably fucked, and prplhz is joining me in that club since he's been backing me up. I'll repay that gratitude in the best way I can, because I don't know if you're scum or not but you let me survive the day, and I owe you that. That´s not the way to go... If he´s scum you shouldn´t defend him just because he defended you. On February 04 2012 11:29 Sinensis wrote: You, prplhz, and Bluelightz are dead once Time turns town. Because they attacked you for your stupid play at the beginning and got Timeaisis lynched? They were wrong about Timeaisis but they gave proper reasons. If they were scum just because they got a townie lynched, Mafia would be easy. On February 04 2012 12:28 TheToast wrote: Most logical? Being that the case was WRONG I find that hard to believe. Especially since Bluelightz has been screaming scum from page 5. Seeing you constantly making these bizzare statements is absurd. You were wrong, I was right. If you are not scum you must be one of the worst town players in this game. It was the most logical case. The other two cases (I don´t count the one against Sinensis) were: 1.Me trying to pressure Sentinel to force him into a mistake, scum slip or something like that; he didn´t make a mistake, so it wasn´t a strong case. 2.The case against Bluelightz, which also wasn´t strong. What you said about him made sense but in no way justifies a lynch. He didn´t make as many bad posts as Timeaisis, so his case was weaker. On February 04 2012 16:28 Sinensis wrote: 6. As of posting this and everything I've read before it, I believe they will try to kill TheToast tonight. What information do we get out of that? | ||
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On February 05 2012 00:56 Bluelightz wrote: @ET my choice is BaronFel because, 1).Hardcore Lurking! 2).Sheeping 3).Hardly contributing Will explain more on this when I can, cause I gotta sleep now. On February 05 2012 16:51 Bluelightz wrote: My reads on everyone: EchelonTee TheToast Nisani201 Sinensis mderg [UoN]Sentinel BaronFel prplhz I'm gonna read some more filters so I can conclude who I think is scum How come this sudden change of mind? I didn´t see a post that could get BaronFel from most suspicious to town. Can you explain this? His vote on Sinensis is rather interesting as it isn´t backed up by good evidence but by an overall impression. On February 05 2012 16:51 Bluelightz wrote: Should we mass-roleclaim? The RB is gone so scum cant prevent blues from getting checks, if we all agree the medic(if we have one) should hide This is just stupid. Scum would get a shit ton of information while we can´t conclude much. Scum would just fakeclaim and the possibility of scum getting checked wouldn´t be much higher than now. Along with This and informationless posts like On February 04 2012 14:17 Bluelightz wrote: Sorry Time  , Hope we can be friends later on >.<The Lynch: There was 8 people voting Time and 4 people voting Me. From this, there was atleast 1 mafia voting Time. Timeaisis (8): [UoN]Sentinel, EchelonTee, prplhz, BaronFel, Nisani201, Vilonis, mderg, Bluelightz it makes me suspicious of you. ##Vote Bluelightz Also: Why the votes on prplhz? right now I see him as cleared town. | ||
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On February 06 2012 02:55 Sinensis wrote: If someone can explain to me why prplhz is confirmed town without evidencing that he was the one who shot sinani206 I'll change my vote to Bluelightz. I don't see it though. No one counterclaimed. | ||
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On February 06 2012 09:36 Bluelightz wrote: Kay, defesnse kgo! All your cases seem to be based on some points 1).My switch of reads on BaronFel(ET & mderg's cases) 2).Informaitonless post's 3).the post where I said I was wishy-washy Now my response ~1 If I just said I think BF is Town from his last post would you go crazy on me for that point?Would you forgive me for a mistake in explaining my reads? ~2 Every post has information,in the post you pointed out mderg, I wanted to tell everyone that I think there was atleast 1 scum voting on Time ~3 Wishy-washyness, I don't neccesarily trust some of my reads and that's hat happened on Sinensis. on Sinensis, I don't really think he's scum now. @Lurkers the inactivity in this thread is amazing~(meaning STOP LURKING) 1 Everyone can make mistakes, nothing tragic. But your change of reads was ridiculous, there was nothing that could possibly be able change your mind. 2 Stating the obvious is not information IMO 3 Not trusting your reads is strange. How do you get these reads, if you don´t trust them yourself? Your reads could be wrong but if the reasons are good, it´s (almost) fine. On February 06 2012 13:53 TheToast wrote: Don't start making lists, really. I was waiting on a possible counter claim vigilante, also thought it might be useful to see who else would stay on board with the prphlz vote. I also should point out that I wrote more than about anyone else for night 1. For the moment the evidence against you seems to have come up empty, so I will move my vote to where it should have been all along. ##Unvote prphlz ##Vote Bluelightz Strange how you come out directly after being summoned... could it be that you´re reading the whole time but not contributing on purpose? On February 06 2012 19:44 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Bluelightz had something going for him like sinani up there. He didn't defend himself when sinani bussed him, but this could be just because someone else (Timeaisis) was already getting the axe so he didn't need to. This could very well be a attempt at distancing as there wasn´t a real threat to get lynched. On February 06 2012 20:59 Bluelightz wrote: Null - mderg, Sinensis : ~mderg's filter doesnt consist of much, I can't really conclude red or green on him.Though, he easily could be town or scum, can't be sure. Interesting... it´s true that I don´t have that many posts but nearly all of my post had (IMO good) content. I´m also quite sure that I contributed to the game better than you. Since you´ve been attacking me more or less for the whole game (even before I made my first post) I think you are too fixated on me. It seems to me like you´re scared of me or something like that. Coincidence that I was role blocked last night? Maybe... but it makes my suspicion even stronger. | ||
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On February 06 2012 23:57 TheToast wrote: Hmmm could be. Especially since I said that in my post: "I was waiting on a possible counter claim vigilante, also thought it might be useful to see who else would stay on board with the prphlz vote" With investigative skills as amazing as these, I'm shocked you haven't yet been recruited into the Ordo Hereticus.  If you say that it must be true. Wait... could it possibly be that you lied? In a game that revolves about lies from scum I would have never imagined this possibility. I´ve never heard about someone lying in Mafia, so everything you say has to be true. | ||
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On February 07 2012 00:27 TheToast wrote: Do you have a specific accusation to make? Or are you just going to keep slinging thinly veiled snarky comments? Since you have a whole 18 posts since the start of the game, I really don't see how you are in a position to say anything about my level of contribution to this game. Make your accusation know, or let us move on with hunting the heretics among us. There is no accusation. I just said that was strange and said so. Why shouldn´t I? | ||
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On February 07 2012 00:30 mderg wrote: There is no accusation. I just thought that was strange and said so. Why shouldn´t I? | ||
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On February 07 2012 00:36 TheToast wrote: Because your muddying the waters. We have now spent half a page discussing your "comment"; directing attention away from important things like finding and lynching the servents of the warps spawn. If you aren't making a serious accusation, there's no need to make those types of comments. Just makes it easier for Mafia to divert the attention of the town. So basically you´re saying that I shouldn´t mention anything I find, if I´m not making an accusation? I really don´t like that attitude! | ||
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On February 07 2012 01:03 TheToast wrote: You mean so we don't have a repeat of Day 1? I did actually write an argument with quotes and everything against Bluelightz. His discourse day 2 has not done anything to even remotely clear him either. As I said, even on the very slim chance that he flips town, I don't see how losing him will hurt us in terms of being able to effectively hunt scum. Just because you are confirmed town doesn't mean you are right. You still have to back your arguments against people with evidence and analysis. What I'm seeing is a lot of you just calling people out on a whim, that's what got Time killed Day 1. If you have more time now, great, write up a nice long analysis of whoever you think is the "scummiest" so we can actually evaluate your position. I don't see how this makes me "bitchy". But if you are confirmed town, then you are doing a great job of helping scum by fomenting infighting. Yeah, see this is not helping town. Quotes? Analysis? Rebuttle to my argument against Bluelightz? This time I have to agree with you... | ||
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On February 07 2012 01:30 prplhz wrote: Well Bluelightz analysis is like "he's fluffing" but he's always fluffing and I don't see anything different from how he's acted in this game compared to Purgatory. I don't see why a scum who is one down day2 would just resign like he's doing. He could push ANYBODY and maybe have a chance to get them lynched, he doesn't even have to make a real case just some of the usual fluff and then he would have a chance to get somebody else lynched but he's doing absolutely nothing. Also, nobody is defending him at all which is always a little unsettling. He isn't indefensible at all. Sinensis, well first thing I noticed was this post: Look at how pissed off he is. He is really angry here. I bet when the rest of you saw the day post you expected to see a green, maybe a blue guy who had been offed by scum. But I think it was to everybody's surprise when there was also a red guy there. I would expect every townie to act a little surprised and also be happy about it but Sinensis is so pissed off here right after the day post. I think emotion is hard to fake for scum, it is easy to constantly remind yourself "I am town, I am town, I am town" but to also FEEL like townies feel must be impossible. I think he was pissed because one of his buddies was killed. I also think he's a lot better than how he plays, he's displayed some ability at logic but then he refused to realize that I was confirmed town even when it was very obvious. He tried to explain it away after mderg explained it to him, but I don't think that's good enough. I haven´t seen Bluelightz in other games but that makes sense. The no defence argument is a bit WIFOM but viable. I´ll take my vote away from Bluelightz for now but I don´t consider him cleared. ##Unvote: Bluelightz About Sinensis: If he really is scum, he´s really good at looking too scummy to be scum | ||
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On February 07 2012 02:34 prplhz wrote: The no defense argument isn't WIFOM at all considering the situation. If he is scum he can just say one name. Then if this person is lynched and he's town, then cool, Bluelightz survived for another day while somebody else didn't. There are 7 townies and 1 scum, he can easily avoid mentioning his buddy and even if he does that will buy him town credit. This is a "nothing-to-lose" situation for scum, but town can still lose something by pointing other people in the direction of other townies. Not that I think that Bluelightz is playing stellar town play, I just don't think he's scum. I doubt he could get anybody else lynched that easy. On February 07 2012 02:34 prplhz wrote: I think his play looks a lot like Purgatory, and he's been posting lists in both games. That's not very important though because it's quite easy to think "I need to post lists because that's what I do as town". Very easy to fake, it's more his overall behavior. I agree. On February 07 2012 02:34 prplhz wrote: I don't like your "even if he is town, he is useless and we lose a useless townie", but if you insist on using it then it can probably be applied to Sinensis too. What he said was very easy to fake. You'll also notice that he actually played a game before in which he was scum so he should definitely know stuff like that. Also he could read the OP and know stuff like that. His behavior in this game is easy to just classify as "newbie" but that doesn't mean he's not scum and when I read his filter it comes off to me more as "terrorist" anyway. The "even if he is town, he is useless and we lose a useless townie" mentality is indeed not good. In a small game like this every dead townie can be crucial. On February 07 2012 02:34 prplhz wrote: "Too scummy to be scum"? Look at sinani206's filter. People thought sinani206 wasn't contributing because sinani206 was town and he was "waiting for day2" or something crazy like that. Isn't that the most ludicrous argument ever? You lynch scummy people, you don't just WIFOM yourself into thinking "Well, scummy people needs to appear townie, and townie people aren't afraid to appear scummy so lets lynch people who appear townie and leave people who appear scummy.". That's plain crazy. I never thought he was town, he was just difficult to read, so I didn´t want to lynch him on day 1. On February 07 2012 02:34 prplhz wrote: You guys need to start voting for Sinensis now. I don´t like your attitude... You´re like: "I´m cleared townie and killed a scum. There´s no way I can be wrong" I don´t think this affects my gameplay that much but maybe we would follow your suspicions more, if you wouldn´t say that you´re definitely right every second post. | ||
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On February 07 2012 04:48 prplhz wrote: I'm pretty sure Bluelightz isn't scum and I'm pretty sure that Sinensis is scum. If you think I'm less likely to be right because I think I'm right then I haven't a clue. That´s not what I meant. It´s more that you sound less convincing, when you say that everyone else is wrong and you are right (and use you killing scum as a reason). I cannot know whether you´re right or wrong as it is now. I´m pretty sure that either Sinensis or Bluelightz is scum, though. And I´m not sure as there are reasons to vote for both. Right now I´m waiting for Sinensis´defense... if it isn´t convincing, I´ll vote for him. | ||
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No, but Sinensis´post were even more stupid than his. | ||
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This leaves only 1 possible lynch candidate for today. ##Vote: Sinensis | ||
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On February 07 2012 20:27 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: And you did not? IIRC your true reason for voting me was to "test" if I was scum, and you were passionately defending your case up until you said "Eh, too much effort to lynch this guy. I can´t see, where I jumped on the Sentinel bandwagon. When I voted for you there was no bandwagon. I also didn´t defend my case against you passionately. IIRC I even was the first one to take my vote off you. Did you understand my line of thoughts which makes me think that you´re not scum? sinani = scum --> jumped on your bandwagon --> you probably not scum to make it simple  I didn´t take anyone else into consideration for this as sinani´s the only scum we know. I won´t listen to prplhz anymore, if he doesn´t have a really good reason. I feel really stupid right now that I didn´t listen to my gut feeling but to the confirmed townie. I will take a look at the post of everyone in this game now and hopefully come up with some in depth analysis in some hours. | ||
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Bluelightz: + Show Spoiler + On February 02 2012 18:09 Bluelightz wrote: Sup guys got my role PM anyway, Here's my take on roles 1 Of the vets(Sinani/prplhz) is SCUM(Not sure about this tho if GM wants to screw with us 3/3 Chaos Followers Remain ?/1 Chaos Cultist(s) ?/1 Chaos Fatespinner(s) ?/1 Chaos Plaguebearer(s) ?/0 Chaos Hedonist(s) 9/9 Imperial Forces Remain ?/5/6 Imperial Guardsmen ?/1?Imperial Priest(s) ?/1? Imperial Psyker(s) ?/1?Imperial Stormtrooper(s) ?/1? Imperial Commissar(s) ?/1/2? Tainted By Chaos DISREGARD ANY CLAIMS BESIDES THE TOWN ROLES ABOVE. Also, note to everyone if we have a dt please breadcrumb your results so if you die we can find them Never, NEVER, I repeat never NO LYNCH D1 Anyways to who I think is possibly a traitor among us, ##Vote: Sinensis No one, should decide who to lynch, people themselves should decide who to vote. Also: Fluff "I think we should kill first night, I think we should kill first night again" VOTING How many mislynches till LYLO( including mafia kills, but not delay) not including possible vig kills/dt checks/medic heals/vet hits + Show Spoiler + 12-3 -> 10-3 10-3 -> 8-3 8-3 -> 6-3 6-3 -> 4-3 4-3(LYLO) Voting Strat: ~Never, never never EVER RNG Lynch(Though there is that 25% chance >.<) ~We should always lynch d1 because without the first lynch we will lack lots of information without it. ~LA-Lurkers, If we don't find a lynch candidate I'm fine with lynching a lurker Lurkers: Lurkers HURT TOWN, if you are lurking STOP IT. I will not tolerate lurkers, in Mini Mafia's with not a lot of people Lurkers hurt real bad. Lurkers, hurt town how? ~Less Information ~Less possibilities for lynching ~Possibly a vote lost to town, because most lurkers sheep. Closing words: I will tolerate lurkers for the first 24 hours because not all players are awake/have acces to the computer to post. His take on roles: speculating about the role-distribution, not much content. But he assumes that either sinani or prplhz are scum. Not very likely that he would say that, if he was scum himself (now that we know sinani really was scum). His vote on sinensis is reasoned, nothing too strange. Then he posts some fluff which could be of help to unexperienced player, explaining some basic thoughts/rules about Mafia. Looks rather useless but it doesn´t hurt town in any way. After that he unvotes, votes and unvotes sinensis. Every vote/unvote is reasoned. Looks unconvinced but not scummy. He also calls out everyone who didn´t post (much) at that time. Normal thing to do. + Show Spoiler + On February 03 2012 09:28 Bluelightz wrote: Who I think is scum: Timeaisis: Sheeping as pointer by ET above, he wants to lynch prp but later when everybody votes Sentinel he votes Sentinel too! Sinensis: Random Lynching, Really?.Random lynching can be easily sabotaged because mafia can "fake" their random number. Vote Leaders, More easily sabotaged, the leader's opinion can be easily changed. Voting early is scummy?, what is your problem with people voicing their opinions?. It opens up way for more discussion. So, FoS:Sinensis FoS:Timeaisis A scum list, not reasoned that well but has at least some points. Aright statement. Again nothing too suspicious. + Show Spoiler + On February 03 2012 16:36 Bluelightz wrote: Hmm, @Sentinel I take back my setup guess so my latest guess of each and I think the setup is 1 DT & Medic + 7 vt + 2 scum + 1 rb Since Sentinel is getting bandwaggoned(?) I'm gonna see why poeple voted him Timeaisis You dont simply sheep, if you think prp is scum push HIM and not what other people think is scum.Though sheeping is not necesarrily scummy, I'm leaning scummy/newb town on him. This makes me suspicious of him, are you trying to lead town to not believe that there is a Hedonist? Sentinel's post could easily be a guess On his first paragraph, There is no way people can vote without reason on day1(not including sheeping). Would people just go away and just leave posts saying ##Vote: __________? Also coupled with some lurking( not thaat bad though) I am voting him. ##Vote: mderg Sinensis Voting cause other people voting him? Sup sheep.If you would vote someone you could at least provide a reason.This thing might be newb town so, I'm holding of the thought of lynching Sinensis Nisani He explains his reasons later on, and by the way he's posting he's Null to me. That's it Sinani please post some more, ty! Another setup speculation. I can´t see how that helps but I also don´t see it as hurting town Then he told Timeaisis to make his own thoughts and following them, not others. Not much content but what he said seems right to me. After that he voted me...I think this vote was rather rash and he didn´t provide many reason. He didn´t understand how I meant my points about Sentinel, though. I could have made it clearer. Seemed a bit strange to me but not really scummy. He proceeds to pressure sinensis and nisani for not properly reasoning their votes against sentinel. Right thing to do, not scummy. After some fluff and explaining that he´s indecisive he votes Timeaisis. I don´t understand that vote as Timeaisis was going to be lynched anyway. Seems a bit scummy to me. Then he states the obvious (it´s most likely) that at least 1 scum had voted Timeaisis. Again not helping but also not hurting town. After calling out BaronFel for lurkin, which I see as standard, he asks whether we should mass roleclaim. That seems scummy to me as there´s no way it would benefit town. Then he posts his list of reads on everyone. His list lacks reason, so it can´t be considered pro-town. + Show Spoiler + On February 06 2012 20:59 Bluelightz wrote: @ET Right now my list looks like this EchelonTee TheToast Nisani201 Sinensis mderg [UoN]Sentinel BaronFel prplhz Explained Below: Null - mderg, Sinensis : ~mderg's filter doesnt consist of much, I can't really conclude red or green on him.Though, he easily could be town or scum, can't be sure. ~Sinensis, he has been posting maybe 3 pages of 1-liners, and here's a compilation of some/most of them) + Show Spoiler + On February 04 2012 07:49 Sinensis wrote: And I'd only switch if we can't, for some reason, get a majority on Sentinel. On February 04 2012 07:49 Sinensis wrote: And I'd only switch if we can't, for some reason, get a majority on Sentinel. On February 04 2012 10:36 Sinensis wrote: You guys are about to kill a townie just because prplhz said "Well it's obviously Sentinel or Timeaisis" This is so obvious. On February 04 2012 10:40 Sinensis wrote: Imbeciles. On February 04 2012 11:25 Sinensis wrote: No one asked you scum. On February 04 2012 08:03 Sinensis wrote: I agree with that refutation, that game you posted wasn't even that long ago. On February 04 2012 11:29 Sinensis wrote: You, prplhz, and Bluelightz are dead once Time turns town. On February 04 2012 11:31 Sinensis wrote: You need to bold that. I made the same mistake. On February 04 2012 11:32 Sinensis wrote: Sorry Deadline is just CLOSE and people need to WAKE UPOn February 04 2012 11:35 Sinensis wrote: Bet you're happy we don't have active players, aren't you scum? On February 04 2012 11:42 Sinensis wrote: When your motives are self preservation as a town member, arguments or comments on cases are pretty intuitive. On February 04 2012 12:14 Sinensis wrote: Looks like my primary suspects haven't changed. On February 05 2012 13:46 Sinensis wrote: I meant to reply right away, but I need to go afk for hours... sorry about this. I will try to get back with what Sentinel just said. On February 05 2012 13:53 Sinensis wrote: Sentinel, my feelings aren't hurt. It's actually fine bro. On February 05 2012 14:02 Sinensis wrote: You are number 3 suspect for scum of mine and I would think many people's list. Even if you're not scum, doesn't mean killing you wouldn't tell a lot. On February 05 2012 14:13 Sinensis wrote: Because holding out on it is going to help us, right? On February 05 2012 14:16 Sinensis wrote: In the words of my comrade Timeaisis who you helped execute, "Good to know." His voting, he never ever,ever has made a proper case on anyone he votes, example he say's mderg convinvnce me, but then he just straight up votes me. Townies: prplhz - His vigi claim makes me believe he's town all others - Due to their posting makes me think they are town ##Vote: Sinensis Reasons'above Another list without much reasoning behind it. At least he explains his null/scum reads.His changes in reads weren´t explained, though, which seems strange but not necessarily scummy. After that he posted mostly fluff, not much to conclude... But his reasoning for considering BaronFel as townie didn´t make much sense to me and seemed a bit scummy. I there was really nothing to read on BaronFel. My conclusion is that he is probably not scum, not because he made many pro-town posts but because he basically gave sinani 50% chance to be scum right from the start. I just don´t see any reason for him to do that, if he was scum. | ||
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mderg
Germany1740 Posts
He starts the game with some fluff, I can´t read something out of that but this often happens at the beginning. The first real contribution is his case against Timeaisis: + Show Spoiler + On February 03 2012 08:47 EchelonTee wrote: So you think Sinensis is supicious for... you don't mention why actually, alright whatever. But you are suspicious of prplhz for starting a motion against someone you find supicious? Should you not be supportive of this move? As far as I'm concernced, prplhz and Sinensis are on opposite sides, at least ideologically if not red/green. Don't see how you can be suspicous of both when you posted this. Ok, you still are against them, ok consistency at least- Wait what da faq? 3 hours later you're on sentinel. But why? Oh right, there's a vote rolling on sentinel, that's your "reasoning". You realize, this is commonly known as bandwagoning. Care to consolidate your opinions? His first argument is reasonable. Timeaisis´ post is a bit contradicting. The second argument was the sudden change of mind, where Timeaisis decided to jump on the "sentinel bandwagon" without reasoning his vote properly. This post didn´t help town, obviously. But he gave sensible reasons for his vote, so I can´t say that he´s scum based on this. Then he posted this: + Show Spoiler + On February 03 2012 10:35 EchelonTee wrote: prplhz hasn't posted since his attack on sinensis. how is he being hostile and or scummy? Wtf? I'm pointing out your flippity floppity, not defending sentinel. idgaf about sentinel; however you're sowing chaos in thread. Your tone in this sentence: you're putting on airs as if you're exposing something underhanded I am doing, when in reality, you're just trying to discredit me with nothing. I was thinking that you were just newbie townie, your filter is full of stuff like this: Talking about being new over and over is a weak scum tell; giving yourself an excuse for bad reasoning/lack of actual analysis is scummy, but new players are often just that: new. But to emphasize your noobiness then start advancing bandwagons while having a curious lack of logic or initiative? you're newbie scum. ##Vote Timeaisis First he defended prplhz in a logical way, I can´t see an anti town intention here. Then he proceeds to clarify his intention of attacking timeaisis, not defending sentinel. He then continues his attack on timeaisis because he was emphasizing his noobiness. After looking back to it I can´t see that much in his attack on timeaisis anymore. He gathered reasons but there wasn´t anything that should´ve made our votes move that easy. Not that the analysis was bad but we should´ve gotten more thought into this. + Show Spoiler + On February 04 2012 06:03 EchelonTee wrote: ...you've used the word bandwagon too, have other people been misusing it unlike you? doesn't take a dictionary definition to see bandwagon. it's obvious. bandwagon analysis, as a subset of vote analysis, is a useful tool in mafia; don't discredit its use. Where did you say that you're not 100% convinced he's chaos? What I saw in your filter is that you believe that only Sentinel and Bluelightz have good analysis on them. The former, you now want to leave for later (hint: if you think someone is scummy why leave them for later), and the latter, you are the only one who analyzed him. What, so is my analysis on Timeaisis shit? Why does no one seem to want to address Timeaisis, or my points on him? That said, your points on Bluelightz here are pretty good, but how is prplhz bad? no one's posted anything of substance on him. Just saying "I think X is scummy" won't convince me. A lot of people seem to be acting based off emotion; that is, reactionary moves. Sinani against prplhz because of his random vote, Sinensis against everyone who voted him, Timeaisis now hates me (<3 you but I think you're chaos sry), and now Toast against prplhz cuz he said you're not making sense. You CANNOT build cases just because people are against you; not only does this result in cases devoid of logic, it's an easy way for scum to avoid making legitimate arguments. Please, if you think someone is scum, say WHY. quote their actual words for brownie points. This post seemed good on first glance but IMO it doesn´t have much content. The bandwagon part discredited a statement but it wasn´t important in any way. The next 2 paragraphs could have been posted in 2 lines. He could have just said that he thinks his analysis was useful, too. Then he again says something you could say in 2 lines and uses a whole paragraph for it. It´s not necessarily scummy but making long posts without much content doesn´t help that much. He proceeds to post some fluff that doesn´t help or hurt town, and he tries to strengthen his position by saying that him starting the bandwagon on timeaisis doesn´t make himself scum because nobody had objections. An understandable defence but nothing that makes a read on him easier. The next real content post was this: + Show Spoiler + On February 05 2012 17:49 EchelonTee wrote: 1. mass-roleclaim: terrible idea, exposes blues at a stage where there is no need to. how could you even suggest this. You're really fixated on roles this game. You're not talking about anything that is tangibly pertinent. This is a NORMAL Mini Mafia; role discussion is just fluffy fluff at this point. 2. you managed to post a list of green and null tells. good job. Did everyone forget about this post? It reflects a lot of my thoughts on bluelightz (wishywashy, posts nothing of use), yet it has gotten buried. Bluelightz never responded at all to the accusations, and his previous thought on who was scum (BaronFel), he now has as green? wtf? Sinensis been drinking some of that crazy juice, but he's not most scummy in thread atm. ##Vote Bluelightz Pointing out the stupidness of Bluelightz idea and his not reasoned list makes sense. But his main point is thetoast´s post which he didn´t follow on day 1. There wasn´t much of his own thoughts in his reasons but his post made sense. Then again some fluff and calling out BaronFel for his lurking and lack of reasoning. Pretty standard play regardless of alignment. Afte that he unvoted bluelightz beacause bluelightz didn´t push any scum agendas. There´s not much I can conclude from it. He could have had his reasons for it as townie and as scum. Nothing particulary scummy, though. After that he voted sinensis. + Show Spoiler + On February 07 2012 08:48 EchelonTee wrote: sigh sinensis... You're so stubborn that you don't realize you're wrong when the time stamps are clearly visible. Why are you STILL trying to discredit prplhz?? I don't give a shit if he's a vet or not. he SHOT sinani. despite all you people reading him as town. wtf have you done all game, besides insult people. Oh, is this supposed to be your master stroke? 1. The problem with gambits such as this, is that by doing a SUPER SCUMMY move, you make TOWN people suspicious of you. It never occurred to you that a townie might start the movement on you? This paragraph here is just so wtf. Are you saying that mderg is added to your "probably town list", just because he told you prplhz can't be mafia because of no CC?? I stated that before mderg. PRPLHZ stated that before mderg. It took a one liner from mderg to convince you? This just reeks of "try to make prplhz look bad at any cost". 2.I noticed this the first time you said it; didn't make sense then, doesn't make sense now. How can you CONFIRM anyone's innocence? It's D1, no flips, no night actions, nothing. You can't possibly use voting analysis at that state of the game. Look at sinani; you sure were convinced he was town because he voted for Blue, remember? I said I would be back before deadline. Placeholder vote is placeholder vote. Since you're so anxious, ##Vote: Sinensis I have a hard time understanding his reasons for the vote... he attacked sinensis´ defence in 1 but didn´t bring any real arguments. In 2 I don´t see any reason to vote for sinensis at all. This vote seems rather strange and a bit scummy to me. Not much content after that. My conclusion on him is that he didn´t post much content within his numeruos posts. He was the one wo started the timeaisis bandwagon (which isn´t a strong reason for considering him suspicious in itself) and he had a strange vote for sinensis. So I consider him suspicious but not very suspicious because he tried to give reasons for every vote. | ||
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mderg
Germany1740 Posts
He didn´t post much let alone much content. He also didn´t give reasons for his votes by himself, we often had to ask for this. He voted for timeaisis on day 1 and insisted on voting sentinel whom he had attacked from the beginning of the game already. (also without much reasoning). IMO he hasn´t played pro-town at all. He didn´t post very much, so I couldn´t get many reads out of his posts but his lurking alone would already make him suspicious. BaronFel: Same as nisani he hasn´t contributed much. Other than nisani he gave reasons for his votes like in this post: + Show Spoiler + On February 04 2012 09:16 BaronFel wrote: After reading through the thread (sorry for "lurking", I'll try to post more), I am leaning towards Sinensis not being scum, but I think he's still dangerous with his ideas. (I personally feel his logic is sometimes faulty), but as you said it may just be extreme newness to the game. ##Unvote: Sinensis I think we should vote, but I'm not fully sold on Sentinal being scum just yet... and prplhz has been making stronger arguments since his rough start... ##Vote: Timeaisis For now (He has been acting odd, and I think playing up the "Im new" card a bit too much), although I'm still watching prplhz (for having such a surprising turn around of character) and Sinensis (for some questionable logic, which even as a townie, is dangerous). But he often refers to others posts and opinions and always went with the majority which makes it seem like he isn´t rying to find scum himself. BaronFel is a possible scum as he was lurking and not bringing in his own arguments. But he isn´t the main suspect because his play didn´t seem blatantly anti-town on the first 2 days. | ||
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mderg
Germany1740 Posts
Started the game with some fluff and roleplaying. Nothing to conclude from this. Was against voting sinensis at the start and tried to pressure bluelightz very early in the game. I can´t see that as anti-town. The early bandwagon was indeed strange. He then attacks sinensis for his random lynch/vote leader suggestion: + Show Spoiler + On February 03 2012 03:02 TheToast wrote: Sinensis you are ever increasing the evidence against you. Why you keep advocating dumb vote systems, over just figuring out who is scum and killing them, is beyond me. Why are you so against the idea of analysis? Scum have 1 kp per night in this game. Meaning if we accidentally lynch a town member Mafia will then kill another town member. So no, we cannot risk just randomly killing someone. We need to figure out who is scum and lynch them today or go no lynch. (I prefer the d1 lynch, but if we can't agree better to lose only 1 townie instead of 2). Also, we've been talking about options for the last few pages. You are so far one of the few who have not put forward some ideas about who should go down for the D1 lynch. You keep trying to railroad the thread towards your ideas but you have provided almost no analysis about who you think is scum. I would call you out for being scum, but I can't help but think that if you were the other two mafia members would be trying to get you to stop posting stuff. See that may have been a good idea if you hadn't announced it to the whole thread. I don´t like the idea of a no lynch day 1 because we wouldn´t get much information, so I´d rather have a townie lynched, if there´s anything to get (If we really had no idea about anyone, we could just give up anyway). I don´t see that as pro-town. Then he wants sinensis to voice his ideas for whom to lynch. At least not anti-town. After some fluff he proceeded with an attack/analysis on bluelightz´ play: + Show Spoiler + On February 04 2012 01:43 TheToast wrote: Alright, with just over 11 hours left to go in Day1, it's time to make my call. Up until now, I've been trying to collect as much information as possible, and I think I've got what I need. Right now I'm convinced that Bluelightz is Scum. But first let's start off with why Sinesis: is a townie. I was pretty worried about him a few pages back, he seemed to be advocating for a vote system that clearly was a benefit to Mafia. After I called him out about it, suddendly he started suspecting the same people that a few posts earlier I had expressed suspecion about and then said I was confirmed town. Odd. But in reviewing his posts, I found two interesting details: To me these quotes suggest that Sinesis really just doesn't know how the game works. His idea about the "vote leader" also suggests townie to me, Mafia would know they could just use their KP on that person. Newer mafia player is also going to be much more reserved, rather than come out loudly suggesting terrible ideas. I think an agent of the enemy would look fairer, and feel fowler Bluelightz Let's start with the obvious scum. His first post is a dead giveaway: + Show Spoiler [Long Ass Post] + On February 02 2012 18:09 Bluelightz wrote: Sup guys got my role PM anyway, Here's my take on roles 1 Of the vets(Sinani/prplhz) is SCUM(Not sure about this tho if GM wants to screw with us 3/3 Chaos Followers Remain ?/1 Chaos Cultist(s) ?/1 Chaos Fatespinner(s) ?/1 Chaos Plaguebearer(s) ?/0 Chaos Hedonist(s) 9/9 Imperial Forces Remain ?/5/6 Imperial Guardsmen ?/1?Imperial Priest(s) ?/1? Imperial Psyker(s) ?/1?Imperial Stormtrooper(s) ?/1? Imperial Commissar(s) ?/1/2? Tainted By Chaos DISREGARD ANY CLAIMS BESIDES THE TOWN ROLES ABOVE. Also, note to everyone if we have a dt please breadcrumb your results so if you die we can find them Never, NEVER, I repeat never NO LYNCH D1 Anyways to who I think is possibly a traitor among us, ##Vote: Sinensis No one, should decide who to lynch, people themselves should decide who to vote. Also: Fluff "I think we should kill first night, I think we should kill first night again" VOTING How many mislynches till LYLO( including mafia kills, but not delay) not including possible vig kills/dt checks/medic heals/vet hits + Show Spoiler + 12-3 -> 10-3 10-3 -> 8-3 8-3 -> 6-3 6-3 -> 4-3 4-3(LYLO) Voting Strat: ~Never, never never EVER RNG Lynch(Though there is that 25% chance >.<) ~We should always lynch d1 because without the first lynch we will lack lots of information without it. ~LA-Lurkers, If we don't find a lynch candidate I'm fine with lynching a lurker Lurkers: Lurkers HURT TOWN, if you are lurking STOP IT. I will not tolerate lurkers, in Mini Mafia's with not a lot of people Lurkers hurt real bad. Lurkers, hurt town how? ~Less Information ~Less possibilities for lynching ~Possibly a vote lost to town, because most lurkers sheep. Closing words: I will tolerate lurkers for the first 24 hours because not all players are awake/have acces to the computer to post. Spoilering because it is STUPID long What is all of this? Is any of this useful information? No. This is all pointless junk that bluelightz threw in because he wanted to make it seem like he was doing some in depth analysis. What he really did was just call out the townie who was being the loudest and avocating a dumb idea. A very clear Mafia tactic. Look back, it was actually bluelightz who started the bandwagon on Sinesis. After Sinesis accuses him of having an agenda, Bluelightz immediately changes course and unvotes Sinesis. Then prplhz hops on the bandwagon (remember this) as does [UoN]Sentinel. Based on this development Bluelightz decides to again vote for Sinesis. (why in the world would two other people voting for the same guy make you change your vote???) When I called out Bluelightz for this very thing, he AGAIN changed course and unvoted Sinesis. After ET calls out Timeasis, Bluelightz again hops on the bandwagon and FOS's him. Then bluelightz changes him mind AGAIN and votes mdrg + Show Spoiler [Another Long Ass Post] + On February 03 2012 16:36 Bluelightz wrote: Hmm, @Sentinel I take back my setup guess so my latest guess of each and I think the setup is 1 DT & Medic + 7 vt + 2 scum + 1 rb Since Sentinel is getting bandwaggoned(?) I'm gonna see why poeple voted him Timeaisis You dont simply sheep, if you think prp is scum push HIM and not what other people think is scum.Though sheeping is not necesarrily scummy, I'm leaning scummy/newb town on him. This makes me suspicious of him, are you trying to lead town to not believe that there is a Hedonist? Sentinel's post could easily be a guess On his first paragraph, There is no way people can vote without reason on day1(not including sheeping). Would people just go away and just leave posts saying ##Vote: __________? Also coupled with some lurking( not thaat bad though) I am voting him. ##Vote: mderg Sinensis Voting cause other people voting him? Sup sheep.If you would vote someone you could at least provide a reason.This thing might be newb town so, I'm holding of the thought of lynching Sinensis Nisani He explains his reasons later on, and by the way he's posting he's Null to me. That's it Sinani please post some more, ty! Interesting thing here is the defense of Sentinel. "Since Sentinel is getting bandwaggoned(?) I'm gonna see why poeple voted him". Okay. Then proceeds to "see" why Timeasis went against Sentinel. Now wait, this seems more like you are telling Timeasis should not vote Sentinel. Not really a fair analysis. Then he proceeds to "analyze" Mderg. Wait, so we went from seeing "why" people were bandwagoning on Sentinel (without giving ANY reason why you thought Sentinel was clean) to accusing mderg in one paragraph. Wtf? I also find it interesting that after mderg points out what may be a mafia slip up from Sentinel, you immediately start attacking him. Smooth. What's the defense to all of this? KIND OF???? At this point I am 100% convinced that Bluelightz is Chaos scum, and he would seem to have inadvertantly fingered Sentinel along with him. Right now I'm going Bluelightz as I am very sure he is Mafia, less so about Sentinel. I would prefer to take out the confirmed scum first, but if we get close to Night 1 and most votes are still on Sentinel, I will switch to ensure we get the 7 needed. ##Vote Bluelightz After he said that he´s convinced about bluelightz being scum he started the analysis with explaining why he thought that sinensis was town. Strange order to do things but I don´t think it tells anything about him. He expalins sinensis being town by emphasizing how sinensis doesn´t seem to know how the game exactly works. Good point and -as we know- sinensis flipped town, so I consider this as pro-town behavior. After that the analysis on bluelightz followed. He first points out the strange vote/unvote changes. Then the advise to timeaisis that he should follow his own suspicions, not someone else´s. It was a bit out of place from bluelightz but it didn´t make him suspicious IMO. The analysis of the vote on me that followed wasn´t that convincing but made sense, so the vote was justified. After that he explained his opinion on timeaisis and why he wasn´t scum in his opinion. + Show Spoiler + On February 04 2012 02:36 TheToast wrote: I highly doubt that Timeaisis is scum. First is the fact that he is a first time Mafia, GM is not the kind of host that would put a first time player on scumteam. Very quick way for the game to be over. His vote against Vilonis also tips me off that he is townie, Mafia would not want to draw extra attention to themselves like that. First time Mafia also tend to want to lurk to avoid causing any suspecion. Also his current vote is on Sentinel. Most of us seem to be in agreement that there is a good chance Sentinel is scum, a view I hope you would support since that's who you have voted. Mafia (epsecially first time Mafia) are not going to jump onto the bandwagon of one of their own. His analysis is not very good. Going with the flow does not indicate scummyness, actually probably the oposite. Focus on the people we have good analysis against so far; Sentinel and Bluelightz. Whoever the third person is, I am willing to bet they are more of a Vet. There are a few people who have so far been playing too perfectly, I don't want to call anyone out yet before we have good evidence as I don't want to risk a townie getting bandwagoned. But there are a few people we need to focus on to get more information from. Take a look, I think you will see the people I am talking about. His first point was purely speculation and refuted by GM when he said that the roles were randomized. The vote against Vilonis didn´t indicate a townie beahavior IMO it´s rather neutral, scum can also call out lurkers and possibly get an easy lynch. I also didn´t like the argument that going with the flow is town like behavior rather than scummy behavior as scum can easily hide in the majority. So I didn´t like his defence of timeaisis but as found out later he was right about the alignment. He then proceeds to attack prplhz for voting without real reasons and continues to attack bluelightz. Made sense, more town like behavior. This took a really long time so please don´t mind spelling/grammar mistakes etc. Just a general not that well reasoned list of reads: Bluelightz IMO rather town than scum, not safe to assume, though EchelonTee IMO suspicious but no serious suspicion TheToast IMO rather town than scum but not confirmed Nisani201 IMO rather scum than town, my first target [UoN]Sentinel IMO hard to imagine as scum BaronFel IMO not cleared my feeling tells me that he´s town prplhz pretty much confirmed town | ||
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mderg
Germany1740 Posts
gonna sleep now, so I won´t respond today | ||
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