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Look at the candidates:
FakePromise:
makes an awful post, offers almost no defense, and doesn't see a reason to defend further. That's either intentional mafia suicide or just a newb townie/blue -- and considering that this is a newbie game, his posts just seem more noob-like than they do guilty. It's impossible to prove -- it's just a hunch based on my analysis. It's what I believe.
Cosmos:
Accused four (4!) different people, mostly just people who accuse him.
Myself:
Needlessly put myself in the spotlight with a first post plan, backed off when others disagreed, and risked my neck a second time according to my honest analysis even when it would've been easier to simply bandwagon on Fake if I were mafia. I've only risked myself when it would've been super easy to blend back into the quasi-lurkers
We still need to circle the wagons on zelblade again, but as the deadline approaches, and considering the votes right now, those are the only three people worth talking about right now.
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Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation.
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I'm not talking about Feared Being. I'm talking about less-actives like zelblade, cosmos and yourself, who post little, small, and acusaTORY THINGS WITH NO REAL ANALYSIS
(sorry holding baby)
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I suppose that makes sense considering it's now between you and me, but really? I'm the only one who defended you.
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If I were mafia, it would've looked even better for me to just climb on the FakePromise Lynching Wagon so the doubt just goes onto Simberto and everyone else.
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On January 27 2012 11:15 slOosh wrote:
It's your choice of using "blue" to represent town alignment that is questionable, especially considering you used the phrase "townie/blue" several times in the same post. It's not a slight misuse to say that blue means town. Using green to represent town is common. No one uses blue to do it. Except you.
Town is blue, town is green -- this is the most trivial thing in the world. I don't see how a first-time player simply categorizing good as blue and red as bad belies mafia.
Lynching for info is dumb. We get info regardless of who is lynched, and yet you keep using this excuse to push forward lynches. It is clear that we have thrown out no-lynch as a poor choice. It is illogical to use this excuse of information gathering to support lynching specific people.
And so I stopped supporting that plan! We got information just from accusing zelblade, which was the goal in the end anyway. Your problem with my plan is more based on theory than it is inherent guilt.
Congratulations, I guess? You beat me to using the acronym? I honestly still don't understand your problem with this one. I backed off the pressure because everyone hated my plan.
This wasn't one of the cases I pushed, but you use WIFOM very often. Wouldn'ts and woulds don't help us.
Vote timing IS an indication. If you really believed it to be true then you stick with it. Much like I am sticking my neck out gunning for you. If you can't even make the first vote on your own analysis then clearly you don't believe it, you aren't acting on your words and that is called deception - something only a mafia would do.
How many times in the thread did people lay suspicion on someone and not vote? Almost every single time. But when I argue to not vote for someone, I have to immediately vote for my number one target in the same post or else I'm deceiving everyone? That's not deceptive. It was clear to everyone who I wanted to vote for. I stuck my neck way out for that, calling attention on myself to defend someone that was easily on his path to be lynched; there was no chance I could back off that analysis, and no reason to, either, as it was honest analysis meant to help the town from mis-lynching. The actual formality of the vote was just that -- a formality. When Simberto called for votes to come in so the Europeans could go to bed, that's when I put mine in. That's all there was to it.
Look, I'm not mafia. I don't know why mafia would behave the way I've behaved this entire first day. But we're having this 4-6 player discussion about an active townie while everyone else gets by just bandwagoning and not contributing anything.
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The most suspicious part of Probulous' Day 1, imo, is the fact he said he would check back for major developments, which is when Lynch Zarepath happened, and he said nothing. I don't know what his lack of presence would imply, except an inconsistency which needs to be explained.
Zelblade has a very similar Day 1 arc, wherein he spends all of its beginning defending himself, apologizing, and lashing out, and then he goes almost entirely inactive at the end.
I want to hear from both these players as to why they went inactive at the end of the day, withholding their arguments at the day's key point.
The third person I really want to hear from right now is Adam. I think it's unlikely that he inherited a Mafia spot... but that's pure speculation, and we need to hear something. I'm curious what your analysis is of the first day, and who you find most suspicious.
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EBWOP: By Probulous I mean Bromancipate, for clarity.
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I'm here. Will be for another hour or so, and then maybe I only have time to check once tonight.
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I don't feel a need to defend myself against DoYouHas' absolute certainty of my guilt until he provides some actual analysis.
I don't know that SS and zelblade are on the same side (ie, if one's mafia, I'm not convinced that the other is bussing him.)
Cosmos's posts still seem quite vague and empty.
SS did do something interesting: he asked when mafia find out who each other are. And this is after he'd already voted.
It seems odd to do an entire day of analysis and not actually know when mafia find out who the other mafia is. It seems more like a false tell or bluff -- if he doesn't know the answer to that, he surely can't be mafia, right?
But the timing of the question was very off.
For this reason, my preliminary vote is for SS
##Vote SacredSystem
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EBWOP:
Bolded my vote for clarity for people skimming the thread:
##Vote SacredSystem
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I don't have a lot of time tonight (or much of tomorrow) to address everything individually, but one of the biggest scum reads people are making on me is my plea to be DT'd.
It's wrong to say that a townie would never request to be investigated. The only mislynch I could be 100% sure of is a lynch against myself. If I'm about to be voted off, of course I request that someone just wait and confirm I'm mafia before lynching me. I even noted that it would be a waste of an investigation, except that nobody seemed to believe me otherwise. It's a tool that could establish my innocence and save the town from a mislynch; it can also ascertain a mafia player, but as the guy up for vote, I'm going to selfishly suggest the one that keeps me in the game.
People are also WIFOMing that that request somehow suggests that I'm a Godfather, trying to set up a wasted investigation. Let me respond with a WIFOM of my own: in a game with 9 and 4, I don't know how likely it is that mafia get a Godfather.
Oh, and also this: no, I'm not a godfather, and not mafia, either.
I'll do a better case-by-case response tomorrow afternoon/evening -- I am actually busier on weekends than during weekdays. Meanwhile I suggest an interrogation of anyone who hasn't contributed post-Night-1, like sloosh did last night. This is another opportunity for people to fly below the radar, and considering the rest of my defense isn't coming until tomorrow evening, it'll give us another data-font.
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EPT
