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On January 10 2012 08:14 Probulous wrote:BK, thanks for being somewhat active. Can you explain this inconsistency for me. Here you rightly point out that the case against Blurry is worse than the case against Gretorp. Show nested quote +On January 09 2012 12:49 bkrow wrote:
To be honest, considering those posts i don't see the case against Blurry more convincing than the case against Gretorp (now replaced by Paperscraps) - either Gretorp is very busy or very bad at being scum. Neither of those 2 situations are beneficial for town; but he is the first one that really grabbed my attention as inactive and intentionally dodging questions. He even promised analysis and.. well yeah..
I would love to hear from Paperscraps after he has caught up on the thread What does the "well yeah" mean? Are you implying he is scum or just pointing out that he didn't post it? From this you seems suspicious of Gretorp but are waiting on more information, is that correct? Then you write about Xeris Show nested quote +On January 09 2012 14:10 bkrow wrote:
I say we place FoS on Xeris (his replacement) and at the very least it will give him a chance to explain himself. For now i see Xeris as a more viable target based on Sheth's comments - but then again, to come out in such defence of a particular person when you are scum is basically tying your fates, so this may have been Sheth's attempt to latch onto a townie and at least secure some result if he was lynched. If you had read the thread at all you would that this town is particularly hard on being people being wishy-washy. What the hell was this? You are clearly suspicious of Gretorp for lurking and it seems more suspicious of Xeris for both lurking and Sheth's comments. Is that correct? If so why undermine the only case you have presented by suggesting that Sheth was trying to undermine Xeris' credibility? If we apply Occam's razor, it is more likely they are both mafia than Sheth had deliberately buddied up to an inactive townie in the hope that people would interpret his buddying up as scumbuddying. I don't get why you would post that. It just makes your whole post mean nothing, makes you look like you're contributing but gives you an easy out. Explain.
@BK, can you please respond to this. I would also like your thoughts on who the third mafia is, assuming Cats flips scum. Your thoughts on Gonz would be welcome too, try and ignore what I have written about him. Thanks!
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Honestly Cats, if you flip town you will have learnt the most important thing about mafia. You have to take positions based on cases and stick by them. Even if you are wrong and look like an idiot that is much better than being a flake. To be fair Blurry has gotten away with it because you looked worse. He will be getting a thorough examination.
Your play has gotten better over time but unfortunately too late. No hard feelings I hope.
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That is why I say your play has improved.
Your gambit was terrible and created all sorts of mayhem, I hate it when people use passive aggressive stuff to gain emotional leverage. So yeah, no problem seeing you lynched. It is not meant as a personal thing, play better next time. I would happy to have another game with you.
Anyway, are we the only one's reading the thread?
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Cats, you confuse me, so how about a deal? I will keep my position open on your alignment if you give me a thorough case on why I should vote for Blurry over you.
The others seem pretty happy lynching you, which bothers me. This wagon is a little too easy to get going. Whether that is because your mafia brethren have given up on you or because you are town, is hard to say. Convince me.
In particular, look at my reasons for thinking Blurry is town and poke holes in it. I want people to tear my analysis apart, right now the rest of the town seem content to just accept stuff that is well formatted. You will go a long way to redeeming yourself in my eyes if you can do that for me.
I will try my best to read your case without bias, however if you are going to get this town to vote with you it will need to write a convincing case. Blurry hasn't done himself any favours so it should be a fair fight.
Show me what you got!
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Much better 
This in particular stood out to me "Jitsu's death has saved the town I think". There is no way that town is better off with Jitsu dead. Ironically his initial position that you were town gave him more credibility in my eyes which is why I asked him to explain it, he then changes his mind and with the flimsiest of reasoning.
Who do you think is the other mafia?
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Here is something else. You posted
"Post #1 is an attempt to put pressure on someone else"
At first I thought that was wrong, Gretorp was one of the first to call out Cephiro for his waffle cases, I had not posted my case at this point. This was a point in his favour. The only other person who had said anything was Sheth with his "leaning" on Cephiro.
However he is intentionally ambiguous and like Sheth never comes back to it. Given Sheth's flip it is possible that they planned to try some soft-pressure on Cephiro to see how we responded. Gretorp never wrote a follow up so we can't be sure.
My only issue is that Xeris/kronhjort looks worse than Gretorp/Paperscraps which means if they are both scum then the mafia team was all the pros  It is a stupid mental block given the whole setup was randomised so I will take a closer look at Xeris/kronhjort.
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On January 11 2012 07:13 bkrow wrote:
Can i be honest? I don't see this huge fascination with "sheeping". It is not immediately anti town to follow the majority, especially if it secures a lynch. There is a difference between sheeping and joining the bandwagon; following a clear analysis made by another person without adding much yourself doesn't mean you are scum simply because there isn't much more to add?
The thing that got me most sold on Cats was jitsu to be honest; he seemed so sure of it, and his play before his death was very pro town. You are probably going to call this sheeping but it seems everyone in this thread has to have an original idea about something otherwise they are sheeping.
No not really, they just have to participate. The problem is that if people don't post their own thoughts and just follow others we lose information. I hate the fact that no-one has really taken me apart for my analysis. Some of it is not great and I am sure there are holes in it. The only people who raised questions were the ones I targeted in my cases. If people blindly follow others it is impossible to tell who is mafia bandwagonning and who is town sheeping.
BK, I like the fact that you are participating and don't seem concerned about people's opinion of you. Seems townie to me. With this in mind please respond to this.
On January 10 2012 13:07 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 08:14 Probulous wrote:BK, thanks for being somewhat active. Can you explain this inconsistency for me. Here you rightly point out that the case against Blurry is worse than the case against Gretorp. On January 09 2012 12:49 bkrow wrote:
To be honest, considering those posts i don't see the case against Blurry more convincing than the case against Gretorp (now replaced by Paperscraps) - either Gretorp is very busy or very bad at being scum. Neither of those 2 situations are beneficial for town; but he is the first one that really grabbed my attention as inactive and intentionally dodging questions. He even promised analysis and.. well yeah..
I would love to hear from Paperscraps after he has caught up on the thread What does the "well yeah" mean? Are you implying he is scum or just pointing out that he didn't post it? From this you seems suspicious of Gretorp but are waiting on more information, is that correct? Then you write about Xeris On January 09 2012 14:10 bkrow wrote:
I say we place FoS on Xeris (his replacement) and at the very least it will give him a chance to explain himself. For now i see Xeris as a more viable target based on Sheth's comments - but then again, to come out in such defence of a particular person when you are scum is basically tying your fates, so this may have been Sheth's attempt to latch onto a townie and at least secure some result if he was lynched. If you had read the thread at all you would that this town is particularly hard on being people being wishy-washy. What the hell was this? You are clearly suspicious of Gretorp for lurking and it seems more suspicious of Xeris for both lurking and Sheth's comments. Is that correct? If so why undermine the only case you have presented by suggesting that Sheth was trying to undermine Xeris' credibility? If we apply Occam's razor, it is more likely they are both mafia than Sheth had deliberately buddied up to an inactive townie in the hope that people would interpret his buddying up as scumbuddying. I don't get why you would post that. It just makes your whole post mean nothing, makes you look like you're contributing but gives you an easy out. Explain. @BK, can you please respond to this. I would also like your thoughts on who the third mafia is, assuming Cats flips scum. Your thoughts on Gonz would be welcome too, try and ignore what I have written about him. Thanks!
In particular I would like your thoughts on Xeris/kronhjort especially in light of Sheth's flip and comments about Xeris.
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On January 11 2012 07:27 Blurry wrote:
There is no way that both Gretorp and Xeris were scum because they were totally inactive and it is doubtful that they would have submitted their night actions. My guess with no evidence to back my claims is that its one of those two plus one of the players that has been more active.
Fair point. So which one? Given that Cats is actively participating and providing analysis I am happy to leave him today. Even if we assume he is mafia (I'm not sure) there is someone else and I agree that it he is either Gretorp/Paperscraps or Xeris/kronhjort.
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Thanks Bk, that is what I thought, I just wanted certainty.
I believe Occam's Razor is something like "the solution with the smallest number of assumptions is usually correct", or simply put, the simplest solutions is normally the correct one.
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Gonz, you are a champ!
I'm going to go through this carefully and provide some "devil's advocate" analysis.
On January 11 2012 07:43 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you). So to make it easy Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not? Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: Show nested quote +Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. . On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. These were the only 2 times you ever mentioned Sheth. You even thought he was more likely town than scum the first time, that's a blatant contradiction of "I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start". So can you tell me wtf this is? You should be lynched just by this alone, it's a blatant lie.
It isn't actually, in his first post he says
" Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell" which does say he thinks he is more likely town than mafia but doesn't specifically state he is not suspicious of Sheth. I think Cats is more likely town than mafia but that doesn't meant I am not suspicious of him.
Even if you disregard the semantics, the question is simple, is this scum motivated? If so how does it support a scum case. My only thinking is that it is an attempt to gain town credit by bussing Sheth early. He would get that credit whether he had been suspicious from the start or not. The "lie" really tells us nothing.
There is some stuff here that doesn't say anything then
You know what does in fact make me more suspicious? The actual fact that Sheth and Blurry barely talked to each other at allThis is the only time one of them talked to the other one directly in early game: + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 12:22 Liquid`Sheth wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:About me being inactive: Sorry,I've been out all day since I'm on vacation in Montreal, and while it says I'm from Switzerland I recently moved to USA (EST) and have neglected to change my profile because I'm a little bit homesick+lazy. Anyways: back to the game, 1: Cookiemaker AnxiousHippo raised a very good point about Cookiemakers most recent post in his stating that trust has been developing amongst certain townies without providing examples. There was no reason for him to say this other than to try and fluff up his posts. Right now he seems scummy to me. 2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. 3: AnxiousHippo Cites his inexperience as a way out of having to provide much analysis but also hasn't said anything too scummy. I'm feeling neutral. 4: Cephiro Provided a lot of good points and has contributed a good deal to the discussion. I don't think think Mafia would be leading the discussion like he has been, especially at this level. Definitely leaning towards town on him. 5: Tunkeg Tries to get everybody to contribute which I like. Is very clear in his stance which is another good thing. Leaning towards town on him. 6: Jitsu I'm getting a town vibe from him as well as he asked for someones opinion on himself. This could however be a clever mafia play to try and discover where the holes in his play are. Leaning towards town as he has been pressuring people to contribute. I said this because in the last game we played together I was scum and he was town. Thats why its worded that way. Its just a claim that he has recent experience with me and I have with him. Now, after Sheth was pressured to being lynched, he posts this: + Show Spoiler +On January 09 2012 05:29 Liquid`Sheth wrote:Just going to post my thoughts on the others, as I am going to go watch Steelers v Broncos at a friends house soon, and I had some things come up today I didn't expect. 7. Probulous -- Townie at the start. Sooo townie at the start. Has recently started making a few logical mistakes. (Both against myself and Cephiro). Implying that Cephiro is a confirmed townie has me looking at you so much right now, but as of now my brain can't make sense of you. Null 8. Blurry -- Havn't filtered you in depth yet, but can get into basics. This post + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:About me being inactive: Sorry,I've been out all day since I'm on vacation in Montreal, and while it says I'm from Switzerland I recently moved to USA (EST) and have neglected to change my profile because I'm a little bit homesick+lazy. Anyways: back to the game, 1: Cookiemaker AnxiousHippo raised a very good point about Cookiemakers most recent post in his stating that trust has been developing amongst certain townies without providing examples. There was no reason for him to say this other than to try and fluff up his posts. Right now he seems scummy to me. 2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: Show nested quote +Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. 3: AnxiousHippo Cites his inexperience as a way out of having to provide much analysis but also hasn't said anything too scummy. I'm feeling neutral. 4: Cephiro Provided a lot of good points and has contributed a good deal to the discussion. I don't think think Mafia would be leading the discussion like he has been, especially at this level. Definitely leaning towards town on him. 5: Tunkeg Tries to get everybody to contribute which I like. Is very clear in his stance which is another good thing. Leaning towards town on him. 6: Jitsu I'm getting a town vibe from him as well as he asked for someones opinion on himself. This could however be a clever mafia play to try and discover where the holes in his play are. Leaning towards town as he has been pressuring people to contribute. Just shows that you havn't put much time into the game at this point. You proceed to say something here + Show Spoiler + On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. You assume that mafia targeted Tunkeg for a completely different reason then I believe. You believe its because of his reads on people such as myself / gonzaw and cephiro. You feel like thats why it was him instead of Probulous. I think its just because up to this point Probulous was the most "town" feeling and mafia was worried there was a medic involved. Then you post another bad post here + Show Spoiler +On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you). So to make it easy Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not? Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. Whats up with this? Can you explain what your "gut" is and what its saying. As I think someone already brought up (Jitsu?) is that if you can't explain it in reasoning then its probably not a good reason. You then say "If I don't have evidence to back up my feelings there is no point in posting it". Regarding evidence against me. So you don't have any evidence and just a gut feeling on me and your willing to vote so quickly on this. Just this here should have everyone worried. Aren't you finding it suspicious that these lurkers are coming out of no where and willing to just throw their votes onto me because of a gut feeling? Blurry :From what I can see, Leaning Mafia strongly.9. Gonzaw -- I don't have time to re-read all of your posts. I will do you and Probulous together hopefuly tonight before the end of the day and if I don't, well I'm sure others will. Based on just what I've seen of your posting you seemed like you were posting a lot of fluf and not really taking too many sides. Then you post a "Placeholder" vote on me even though your not convinced. You don't even wait on me to argue my side at all. You and Blurry seem to both be doing this to me. I'm not sure if this is a coincidence, that you both just have to go and blindly will kill me off, but its so bad. Why are you voting for me if you aren't convinced I'm scum. Just from what I've seen I'll say Town-Scum, but I really need to re-filter you more indepth, so this is it for now. Everyone putting your votes on me, please look into Cephiro, Blurry and Cats/Gonzaw . Those are my four scummiest reads, without knowing more about Xeris/Gretorp. Blurry doesn't even respond to him. Seems like a planned bus to me, just a way for Blurry to gain town cred once Sheth flips. And don't come and tell me this is WIFOM shit or something, if you guys believe Cats is scum too then this has to happen too. In the UG games, there's one thing I do to find scum. I see which players don't even talk to each other when not pressured to. I don't mean talk as in just quoting and saying uninteresting filler stuff. I also don't mean mentioning each other, whether to make them suspicious or defend themselves. I mean talk as in arguing with each other, pressuring each other, etc. I think this happened in the previous Newbie game too. Hell, there's a UG game where I found the entire scum team just by doing this, without any other analysis. I'm pretty convinced that works, even more considerably in a newbie game. It is WIFOM, but shit, it's WIFOM that works, just like the ones in the guides all over this place. If you don't think this holds, then there needs to be other highly incriminating/saving evidence towards it.. ##Vote: Blurry
This is a good point and something I had not noticed earlier. Thank you.
Also, I don't like this Cat bandwagon. It just seems so easy to lynch him.
Yup, we agree on that too.
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He he, thanks Ceph.
Ok, time to come clean. I know my play over the last day or so has been, how shall I say this, bad! My problem is that I would feel really bad for Cats if he was town because unlike others he has actually tried this game. Plus he was a little upset at me calling him terrible.
I pushed my case day 1 and was horribly wrong, but then again so was everyone else. Day 2 I push my cased again, really hard and was right, but no-one was really offering counter arguments (except Jistu). I lost confidence today in my scum hunting abilities and wanted some contributions from others that I could read. I am still in two minds about Cats, I can't tell if he is just really bad town.
If I can't make up my mind about Cats, that means the only option I have to find scum is to look elsewhere. Maybe it was a stupid plan, it was certainly not the most logical, but I felt I owed Cats something in return for his obvious commitment to this game.
Finally when I took a step back I realised the reason we have been targeting Cats is because he has been active. He has been constantly changing his mind and his interactions with Sheth make him look really bad. Like I have said before there is plenty of evidence for him being scum. That very point illustrates why I am concerned about his lynch.
The others have got away with posting nothing. If scum avoids the noose because a new townie posts a lot of stuff that looks scummy, I will feel real bad. He is clearly serious about playing. His posting is improving, the purpose of this game is help newbies get better. I am not saying I won't lynch Cats, I am just trying to look elsewhere.
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I'll preface this with "I know this is a stupid idea but"
I kind of want to lynch kronhjort just to get rid of that stupid lurking role. It is really fucking over town now. I have a scum read on Xeris which cannot be corroborated because kronhjort doesn't post. I mean the reasons we have for Cats could describe Xeris as well. His posting never took a stand on anything and he had some sort of connection with Sheth.
I am almost certain that either Xeris/kronhjort or Gretorp/Paperscraps is mafia and I can't tell because one of them has been inactive for most of the game.
Ceph, your game has picked up dramatically and if you can't see that Cats' is doing similar things, I am disappointed. Just look at his rebuttal of Paperscraps' case. Gonz is almost certainly town although he cannon-ball style posting makes it hard to get any real information from him. Blurry is useless but doesn't seem like scum to me.
In short my brain is hurting and I don't feel like I am getting any closer to making a decision.
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On January 11 2012 13:35 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 08:18 Probulous wrote:On January 11 2012 07:43 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you). So to make it easy Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not? Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. . On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. These were the only 2 times you ever mentioned Sheth. You even thought he was more likely town than scum the first time, that's a blatant contradiction of "I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start". So can you tell me wtf this is? You should be lynched just by this alone, it's a blatant lie. It isn't actually, in his first post he says " Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell" which does say he thinks he is more likely town than mafia but doesn't specifically state he is not suspicious of Sheth. I think Cats is more likely town than mafia but that doesn't meant I am not suspicious of him. Even if you disregard the semantics, the question is simple, is this scum motivated? If so how does it support a scum case. My only thinking is that it is an attempt to gain town credit by bussing Sheth early. He would get that credit whether he had been suspicious from the start or not. The "lie" really tells us nothing. There is some stuff here that doesn't say anything then Saying "Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum" is, firstly, so wishy washy it's not even funny. To say that is a "suspicion from the start", is a HUGE stretch. Like you say, it's such a huge stretch that it can be used to justify a bus. Actually, this convinces me even more he's scum. He just makes a super fluffy read on Sheth, so he can use it later to justify himself. Also, nothing in his read of Sheth implied he's suspicious of himLet's check it out. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Is this suspicion? That's a logical OR; there's no analysis, there's no personal opinion, it's nothing. It's the same as saying "He's either scum or town", it's a tautology that doesn't show anything. Saying that is a "suspicion" is indeed a lie. Show nested quote +Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Where's the suspicion in this? He's defending him for christ's sake, this is the opposite of suspicion. If you take the "Right now, I'm feeling...." line out, what do you think of this "read"? Do you think it's a suspicion or could even be seen as one?
Gonz, reading your case all you have proven is that his play is bad. I highly doubt he would create such a sophisticated plan to make a fluffy case against Sheth and then use that as evidence for towniness if he had to bus Sheth. Like I said where is the scum motivation. Tell me a story :p
Your best point to date has been the lack of communication between them. Expand on that for me. Thanks mate, I appreciate your work!
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STUPIDITY!
Just kidding.
Voting tally so far
CatsnHats (3) - Blurry, Paperscraps, Cephiro
Blurry (1) - Gonzaw
Paperscraps (1) - CatsnHats
If I had to make up mind right this instant I would lynch Paperscraps but I am not going to place my vote down yet because I am nowhere near certain of that. I will reread the thread and everyone's analysis again before making up my mind. We still have time.
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On January 11 2012 14:20 Paperscraps wrote:
@Ceph: I wouldn't vote up anyone besides Cats or Xeris.
This is the reason you are alright voting for Xeris
"If worst comes to worst and we can't get a majority on Cats, then I wouldn't be against lynching Xeris(Kron). If you are sure that Xeris or I are mafia, then I am sure that it is him. This would help my case towards being town and we would be one less inactive.
Lynching Cats or Xeris is win-win for me"
Nothing about his play just that because I think one of you two are scum. I never said I was sure he was scum. You don't say you think he is scum, or have any reason to vote for him but you are adamant that only Cats or Xeris will get your vote 
What happened to Blurry? I know you changed position on him but at least you had a case for voting against him. You attack Cats on being wishy-washy but this is blatant bandwagoning. You see an opportunity to get either Xeris or Cats voted off and save your hide so you jump at it with no reasoning behind your stance.
Pick up your game.
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On January 11 2012 14:32 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 11 2012 14:01 Probulous wrote:
Gonz, reading your case all you have proven is that his play is bad. I highly doubt he would create such a sophisticated plan to make a fluffy case against Sheth and then use that as evidence for towniness if he had to bus Sheth. Why would you assume that? How is it even a "sophisticated plan"? Shit, let's recap the "sophisticated plan": 1)Make a wishy-washy read on one of his scumbuddies 2)When his scumbuddy has a chance to be lynched, bus him 3)As for the reasons for doing it, just say that your previous wishy-washy read was a suspicion on him (1) Isn't even part of any "plan", it's just a regular scum behaviour of "not being sure" about your scumbuddies, in case you need to bus or defend them later on, and so you don't have to pressure them, talk to them, or have anything to do with them in the thread (2)Seems pretty straightforward, I don't need to explain to you why scum would bus each other when one has the chance of being lynched, right? (3)If this is "sophisticated" I'll eat my own ass. It's the easiest way for him to not make an effort in thinking up reasons to bus him. Actually it's stupid too, since eventually someone is bound to reread that and search for that "suspicion from the start" and figure out it's a bunch of fluff. Like I said where is the scum motivation. Tell me a story :p .....what? You want me to "tell you a story"? Do I have to make wild speculations about "what they may have thought" or some shit? What's the point? I am not here to entertain you guys. I won't start my posts with cute images, or format my posts like a book or something, or "tell stories" or whatever you mean. If I do that I waste time doing something unnecessary. Also, what do you mean "where's the scum motivation"? Isn't "be wishy washy about your scumbuddy so you don't pay attention to him, then bus him to gain town cred" enough? Isn't all that sheeping and regurgitation to lynch a townie (cookie/tea) without actually making an effort enough? Isn't all that "I'll emulate how other players post", and "I'm following my gut" to strip away any responsability and pressure from him enough? Your best point to date has been the lack of communication between them. Expand on that for me. Thanks mate, I appreciate your work! I think I expanded enough. I already pointed out almost all communication between them (I may have left some bussing from Sheth out though, but all of that can be generalised with the single post I showed). So, what do I have to "expand"? Why can't you do that on your own? Sorry for the aggresiveness, but....really? Why are you so sure Blurry is town? Also, why don't you let him defend himself? You are acting like his babysitter or something, if he's pressured let him react to it goddammit! Your play has been very weird lately Prob, shit.
Fair point Gonz, I will let Blurry defend himself. I am not sure he is town, he has played terribly. I just think others look worse.
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My fault Cephiro, I should never had mentioned it. I haven't been bold today but for your sanity's sake
WE ARE NOT LYNCHING XERIS TODAY
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On January 11 2012 14:51 Paperscraps wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 14:37 Probulous wrote:On January 11 2012 14:20 Paperscraps wrote:
@Ceph: I wouldn't vote up anyone besides Cats or Xeris. This is the reason you are alright voting for Xeris "If worst comes to worst and we can't get a majority on Cats, then I wouldn't be against lynching Xeris(Kron). If you are sure that Xeris or I are mafia, then I am sure that it is him. This would help my case towards being town and we would be one less inactive.
Lynching Cats or Xeris is win-win for me" Nothing about his play just that because I think one of you two are scum. I never said I was sure he was scum. You don't say you think he is scum, or have any reason to vote for him but you are adamant that only Cats or Xeris will get your vote What happened to Blurry? I know you changed position on him but at least you had a case for voting against him. You attack Cats on being wishy-washy but this is blatant bandwagoning. You see an opportunity to get either Xeris or Cats voted off and save your hide so you jump at it with no reasoning behind your stance. Pick up your game. I don't claim to know anything about Xeris, but one thing I do know is that I am not scum. Also you said this Prob Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 13:48 Probulous wrote:
I am almost certain that either Xeris/kronhjort or Gretorp/Paperscraps is mafia and I can't tell because one of them has been inactive for most of the game.
Also I don't see how I was jumping on the Cats bandwagon? I posted my thoughts of him being scum(largely in part due to Jitsu getting killed and his supscions), before he was even voted up. So no bandwagon here. Also the whole thing with voting up Xeris, was just saying that I would rather lynch him than have a no-lynch. Not bandwagon either.
You seem to be willing to vote for anyone who has half a case on them. My point is simple, you put effort into your case against Blurry than dropped it in favour of Xeris based on my post. I never said you were jumping on the Cats wagon, I simply want to know what makes Xeris so suspicious in your eyes that you are only willing to vote for him?
You have presented no reasoning why he deserves your vote other than trying to save your own hide. That is not a reason to lynch someone, you lynch them because you believe they are scum. I have my reason for believing that either you or Xeris are scum but you have not presented yours.
Why do you think Xeris is scum?
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On January 12 2012 07:03 Blurry wrote:
@Cats, for now I will stick with you as my scum vote. You are still my best bet for who should be lynched today. Keep in mind, if you are indeed town, and you get lynched, you dont lose the game. Your death will give us valuable information on who was pushing for your lynch.
For now tell me what you think about Gonzaw.
Whilst your first post today was good this is not so good. If Cats is town then him getting lynch is always bad. What information specifically would you gain from his lynch? Voting patterns perhaps, but he has been the easy lynch all game so that doesn't really tell us much. I mean most people now who have him as scum do so based on other people's analysis. Compare a possible Cats lynch to AKCT. Almost identical in that no-one was really pushing a different target. What did AKCT lynch tell us?
Sweet fuck all because everyone voted for him. This is why sheeping is bad, you can't tell people's motivations for actions.
Blurry, what is your response to Gonzaw's case against you. Particularly your lack of communication with Sheth given you were suspicious of him? Oh and please answerCats` question regarding Paperscraps.
I can give an explanation for your early vote on Sheth that still makes you scum. You guys didn't expect Sheth to get lynched. An early vote for you takes you out of the spotlight and probably doesn't lead to his lynching. But as soon as the wagon really gets rolling what do you gain by jumping off? If you jumped off the wagon you would be under serious pressure the next day and both Sheth and you would be identified as scum. Better to leave you on and hope people give you credit for it. Let Sheth try and redirect the wagon onto someone else, if it works you are not blamed for the miss-lynch and if it doesn't you gain town cred for lynching Sheth. Sure you aren't the strongest player but you weren't under major suspicion and Sheth was. You had much to gain and little to lose.
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There is that timing again, welcome back Gonz!
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EPT
