EPTNewbie Mini Mafia II - Page 2
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![[image loading]](http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2izOFIojFHE/TeU5hpV7VFI/AAAAAAAAD2g/lipyrQVQHW8/s1600/vicks-jury.png) Ladies and gentlemen of the jury I present my case to you today in the attempt to clear this town of the scum that is defiling it. NOTE: I wrote this over the last hour or two so I may be missing the latest info First off here are my definite town reads. Tunkeg Aggressive and keen to point out inaccuracies he has been very active. Looks even better than his last game. My highest town read. Jitsu Less active than Tunk but what he says has been of value. Particularly his pressure on Cookie for regarding a no-lynch. He seems to be focusing on Cookie, Hippo and Cats all for either stupid logic or lack of contribution. I like everything I see. Gonzaw This is a funny one because Gonz, I had you pegged as a red initially. Your support of discussing WIFOM scenarios was particularly bad. It just distracts town and adds nothing to finding scum. Your start was underwhelming with lots of posts but nothing concrete. This was particularly bad filler On January 04 2012 12:35 gonzaw wrote: EBWOP: Interesting. If you are town, I really hope you are right about you being "good at mindgames". If you are scum I really hope you aren't. It was this post that started your resurgence On January 05 2012 04:26 gonzaw wrote: I like how Probulous is pressuring people, gives me a town feel. I doubt scum would want to start town discussion as badly as him at this point. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 03:41 Cephiro wrote: I see what you mean. But regardless of what your reasons are, you need to be available enough so that we can get a read on you. Not being able to get any kind of read on you doesn't help your case at all. But I'll trust you... for now. You know, the problem I have with you for now is that you "trust" a lot of people and think a lot of people are town. Although finding out who's town is benefitial (since then it becomes a process of elimination to find scum), you should specially try to find scum directly. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 13:48 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Well, more then one. But the one that worries me the most. You better come here soon and explain that. I hate it when some players just post "I'll give my thoughts in a second" and never show up, whether town or scum. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 03:20 Gretorp wrote: haha aws just kidding with the post but I will definitely once I analyze more ;-) Again, this is what I'm talking about. Also, your "joke" doesn't help us at all. If you are town, you just confused the hell out of every one of us, you appeared scummy as hell and we will waste time and effort analyzing this "joke" of yours. If you are scum, then you can just use it as a justification for making a super-scummy-OMGUS first post and get away with it. Or you can use it to confuse town. Doesn't help us at all. And with this "I will analyze more" but not doing anything makes me think you are the 2nd. For now I'll pressure vote Xeris to come here and post his thoughts, but if we have nothing to go on by the time the day ends I'll vote for you ##Vote: Xeris + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 01:44 CatsnHats wrote: Lurking around at the beginning, writing a paragraph of text that amounts to nothing, and then OMGUS-ing the person that prods you... not a good look Gretorp. Pretty scummy if you ask me. Is it scummy enough for you to vote him? + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 12:13 CookieMaker wrote: Incorrect: We get more information, especially if we can get the participation level up a little bit. There's also going to be more posts from all players(god hopefully) before the day is through. Clearly the pool of prime lynch candidates is shallow at the moment. I will be voting for the player with the lowest vote total until I see a better option. I don't like how you are advocating the "no-lynch" here. You also say you will vote for "the player with the lowest vote total". Why would you do that? Are you trying to avoid voting anyone so no suspicions fall on you? The whole "no-lynch" discussions could be a way to justify yourself into doing this and just not having to deal with any votes or pressures whatsoever and have a free pass throughout the game. Also, I'd like to see your thoughts on Gretorp. You point out that scum-hunting is the priority and that trust is pretty useless. I like your pressure on Sheth and Gretorp to post, even though Sheth had actually posted his stuff already. Your point about Cats wishy-washiness on Gretorp was well received. But the best thing was you pointed out Cookie’s stupidity for voting for the lowest total. I noticed that too. The rest of your posts got better and better except for the diversion about random voting. No-one was suggesting it, Xeris mentioned and bam, the thread goes into diversion over-drive. Come on people stay focused. Those are my green feels These people are null to me
Mostly due to lack of posting but in Sheth’s case, he started well but his unwillingness to go after Cephiro took him back to null. Something Jitsu pointed out. Come on Sheth, apply the blow torch. So onto my Scum reads. I will go from easiest read to hardest, might need an extra post for the last one  CookieMaker Your first post was terrible. Here it is in all its glory On January 04 2012 10:11 CookieMaker wrote: Okay townies... we are presented with a dilemma. Disadvantage #1: There are few (if any) roles in this game, making identity confirmation scarce. However, that being said, the significant advantage we have over the mafia is their lack of killing power. They are only going to be able to snipe (at most, with any luck we got a doc) one person each night. This means the pressure is really going to be on them to avoid being lynched. I urge you, when voting time comes, do your homework, and proofread the homework of others carefully. Rash vote swings by emotional players only help the scum hide on their bandwagons. I am making an assumption here, but the other likely advantage we possess is the experience of a few key players. I'd be absolutely shocked if all three mafiasifarians were players who had (lots of) prior experience playing, but I'd also be surprised if they were three complete newbies. My impression is that one mafia will be a strong player and will deftly manipulate and lead the other two. So this is the first day. I elect #thefirstpersontocomeupwithaplan for mayor You point out the lack of roles. Why bring up roles. People have read the OP, they should see the lack of roles for themselves. Besides, we can do nothing about that and we don’t want to out our blues, if we have any. Why focus on them. Only scum do that. You then point out the lack of scum killing power, alright fair point. But then the rest of that paragraph is just filler about pressure which is always there. Finally you end with a point about voting for mayor which doesn’t even exist. Not a great way to start the game. Your next post is useful to me as you point out me missing the second setup option. But then you raise the possibility of a DT. Why? Again, this does nothing for how we play the game and can only serve to out our blues. Then comes the kicker On January 04 2012 11:33 CookieMaker wrote: DAY 1: Right now from my perspective we have the following lynching objectives as town: 1. Not Lynch Innocents -The only way we can be absolutely certain of this to happen is with a no-lynch (tied vote). -This benefits us strongly if there is a DT in the game. It is understandable that the DT won't reveal because of the threat of being killed. 2. Lynch mafia -Currently hopeful at best. Statistically extremely low chance of getting this right, especially with mafia votes. Right now I'm in favor of a no-lynch until more pressure is applied and reads can be made. Number one priority is always to lynch scum. We cannot kill them any other way. My point was that a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch, which is obvious really. You however took to be better than a lynch of mafia. Sorry scum you don’t get away that easy. You keep digging your hole when Jitsu rightly points out the stupidity of advocating a no-lynch. When I ask Cats for his thoughts on you, you respond with a snarky "Jab and dodge eh? I like your style. " If you don’t like something, say it. This kind of soft undermining is exactly what mafia would do. You cast doubt without specifically saying anything. I wanted Cats to analyse you specifically because he had changed his position away from yours. I wanted to see him argue. The rest of that post is just filler. You have come back to thread since then but I have not had time to analyse your posts. At this point, pushing a no-lynch over lynching mafia, focusing on blue roles and undermining both myself and Cats with snarky comments makes you mafia bro. CatsnHats This one caused me pain. I had you pegged as an uncertain newb at first, but you haven’t redeemed yourself. Sheth rightly pointed out the extreme uncertainty of this first post On January 04 2012 11:52 CatsnHats wrote: Yeah I'm around. Just reading the thread and getting a sense of the situation since I've never played before. It would seem that not lynching unless reasonably certain would be the way to go. Although I'm not sure how we could be certain of anything on D1. I want to point out the emphasis on his newness. Apologising for being new is a great way to excuse yourself from participating. Sheth calls you out and you respond with more uncertainty On January 04 2012 12:34 CatsnHats wrote: Thanks CookieMaker for the link. And you're right Sheth, if I am leaning toward no lynch that would be a red flag for scum. But wouldn't emphatically being in favor of a lynch be a red flag for scum too since the odds are in favor of townie being accidentally chosen? Oh God this is gonna be so meta. Why explain the WIFOM? This post adds nothing and keeps you painted as not wanting to make a stand. When Sheth puts the blowtorch you respond with On January 04 2012 14:06 CatsnHats wrote: But it's so hard to counteraggressive to the nicest guy in esports! Haha thanks for the advice. Lynching someone is definitely the way to go. Any information gleaned, even at the cost of a townkill, is better than no info at all. I don't have a lot new to add that hasn't been said already, but that's my stance. As for picking who to lynch, I going to reserve judgement until the last few people have started posting. Sheth, that was bad. Don’t let him off the hook. You finally take a stand in the most conciliatory way possible. You say lynching is definitely the way to go, then again emphasize your newness. We specifically ask you to take a stand and you discredit it in the same breath that you make it. BAD! I then specifically ask you to analyse Cookie, because you had changed your stance to opposite of his. I wanted you to argue for your position, provide something to thread. You have not responded to this post. On January 04 2012 14:21 Probulous wrote: If you are finding it difficult to add stuff to the thread, try playing devils advocate with the position you have taken. Read the thread carefully and find posts that are not consistent. I am glad you have taken a stance but you need to be sure why you chose it and be prepared to argue it. Sheth is being generous, your ealier post was very wishy-washy and was a legitimate reason to pressure you. I am still not convinced you are town, prove it to me by posting some analysis. What are your thoughts on CookieMaker? Cookie even got a little touchy about me asking you. I come back this morning (my time) hoping for an analysis of Cookie and I get this On January 05 2012 01:25 CatsnHats wrote: If Cephiro won't analyze himself, I will. You've advocated lynching from the beginning and have added a lot of original content in the way of statistics and your recent D1 analysis. And even though you admitted earlier that you consider yourself good at mindgames, I still have a town read on you for now. I also agree that Probulous is strongest town read right now. He has put himself in the spotlight from the beginning with his magnitude of posts, trying to rally the town to discuss and such. It would be hard, especially as the game goes on, to stay with the attention on him that much if he was mafia. As for my flip-flopping of position, I hope you all can excuse it as my one noobie mistake. I want to clarify that this is my first game ever of mafia in any medium (forum or IRL), not just on TL. And you won't hear anymore noobie excuses from me after this. Cepiro, alright I have him pegged as well. What the hell is that analysis? Original content? Day stats that were useless filler? His Day 1 analysis is so soft and contradictory it is enough to lynch him alone. So instead of responding to me you “go after” Cephiro with three lines of nothing. You point out I am town, which is obvious by this point. Then point out your flip-flop again as a newbie mistake. You realize you can’t really use this excuse so you say it is the last time. So mate, too late. The rest of your posts are also non-aggressive crap. You don’t like Tunk’s aggression even though he his taking stance and pushing people. You then getting upset with Gretorp for his stupid first post. For everyone listening both Gretorp’s and Xeris first posts say nothing! That does not mean they are scummy. It means they are yet to contribute, call them out on that. But even when you have a target for your vote you write this On January 05 2012 04:17 CatsnHats wrote: I said this earlier in regard to Gretorp's first post and I still stand by it. He backs off in his second post but adds nothing, just promising analysis later, which I look forward to seeing because right now I'm suspicious . @Sheth You would have a better read on Gretorp though since you have played with him before and invited him to this game. What do you think about his first posts? Wishy-washy again. You were called out for being non-commital and this is how you commit? Then Gonz, please his soul, calls you out for not voting and you respond with On January 05 2012 05:37 CatsnHats wrote: @gonzaw I haven't voted for Gretorp because I thought we weren't supposed to vote until near the end of D1. Throwing a vote out with so many hours left to use for reads isn't very smart. Plus I was waiting for his response, as well as the first posts of Xeris and the return of Blurry, who seems to have fallen off the face of the Earth. You say that you didn’t vote for Gretorp because and I quote ”I thought we weren’t supposed to vote near the end of D1.” But then you don’t follow it up with a vote. SCUM! Right Cephiro is next but he will need his own post | ||
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You are one smart SOB, but not smart enough Mr Scum. I am going to go slowly because you have a lot of posts and you look like your contributing, but when you look closely, you ain’t saying nothing! Your first post On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote: I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. Also... What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? Sheth rightly pointed out the lack of content in this post. It looks great from a distance but says nothing. I point this out and you eventually play down the stats. More damning from my point of view is your support for Cookie’s first post. His post was way worse than mine, but you call me out and my stupid pun and support him? You still haven’t explained how what I wrote was a supposed “scum-slip” but it was enough to paint me suspicious straight up. In addition, you like Cookie go on about blue roles. This is a scum tactic, there is no reason for town to discuss the possible setup until we have information from the night events. Anything else risks outing blues, but you keep on about it. Then comes a nice filler post On January 04 2012 10:54 Cephiro wrote:+ Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:49 AnxiousHippo wrote: I'm pretty sure scum are sometimes referred to as Reds, I guess he was trying to make a pun? I don't think it was a slip. Myeah, You're probably right, since as I said, I wouldn't expect even a newbie mafia slip this early. Gotta be careful about puns though, they could be misunderstood. Even though it actually could be good scumbaiting, fishing for the player's reactions for better reads? Well, in any case we'll have to get some discussion going on. Or random accusations to get people to talk. (Or maybe I'm just too eager regardless of the fact I know most people in Europe won't be awake at a time like this.) Your response to my question about what purpose the stats offer is On January 04 2012 11:21 Cephiro wrote: Well, it was mainly some statistics to prove how the situation is better for town in case the mafia has a role blocker and we have power roles. Also, there is a set up which contains both power roles (DT+Medic for town), and the mafia roleblocker. You can check the opening post for the 4 possible setups. I'm not entirely convinced on a no-lynch, but I do agree that lynching a townie on D1 is a bad start. I think it comes down to how much information we'll have, if there are any seemingly scumreads I personally think we gain more as town if we try to lynch the scum, since if we hit, we are at a very good advantage. And even if we don't, it will raise much more discussion and easier reads depending on who has been voting for who and so on. In other words, nothing. The rest is fairly decent. Again I pressure you on what purpose the stats offer and you finally agree that it means nothing. On January 04 2012 11:44 Cephiro wrote: Heh, such happens. But yeah, the statistics won't be very useful yet, but they are good to know anyway. (I study statistics at uni, and I love to try and apply them into everything.) I am quite sure it will become useful sooner or later, especially if we get the chance of backtracking roles. What I want to do today is covered in my post you already quoted. I would like us to be able to raise enough discussion and get a decent shot at who could be scum, since 2 mafia versus 8-9 townies (depending on if one dies N1 or not) would be an incredibly good situation for us. CookieMaker has a good point though, there is a 50% chance that there is a DT in the game, and buying him time to find the scum isn't a bad idea either. But we can't be certain if there is one or not, which why I'm still slightly favour for trying to lynch scum today, at least for now. We have quite a bit of time on us though, so if it seems like we can't get good reads on anyone and it's just a huge mess, we can still go for the no-lynch. Also, no problem for staying up late, I'm very bad at sleeping early and I'm so excited to play my first game of Forum Mafia! I will be going to sleep in 20 minutes or so though. But then you go again about the setup. If the stats of the setup mean nothing, than the setup itself means nothing. We cannot get any info from discussing it until we have night actions. These posts are long but you haven’t actually said anything. You look like your contributing but you aren’t. Your last post of the night was On January 04 2012 12:21 Cephiro wrote: Yeah, it's my first forum game ever. Haven't played this anywhere else either. I've read through quite a bunch of advanced games on different forums though, and I generally consider myself good at mindgames or understanding what people think / why they do something etc. So I'm really excited to see if it's correlates to success in here. Yeah, you heard right, watch out mafia! I am going to sleep now though. I will re-read the thread (especially the new posts) a few times once I wake up and will try to join in as much as I can. If you have a hard time of trying to find out who is scum, then please do the town a favor and at least try to find some most-likely-town reads, since even that will help us narrow down the possible lynch. I do agree that we could pressure vote lurkers/inactives later on in D1, hopefully forcing them to defend themselves and give us better reads. Is there anything in there that helps town to catch scum? The only thing you say is that if you can’t catch scum, try and prove people are town, but of course you don’t do anything like that do you? Wishy-washy trash. Now my personal favourite, your analysis. I will you credit for being the first person to post one but god damn you could not have done a worse job. I am going to go through each person and see how wrong you can be. On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment. Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise. Player List: 1.CookieMaker For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me. You lean town because ” But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game” Earth to Cephiro, it is everyone’s first (second or third) game. That is no excuse. Essentially you are saying that you disagree with everything he says but think he is town because this is his first game? BAD Cephiro! 2.Liquid`Sheth Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post. At this point he had done more than Cookie. He had attempted to out scum by pressuring Cats. A point you recognize. I want you to read this again and again an try tell me why a town would say this ” Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content?” Sheth had a reason, he made it clear. Cats was being non-commital. Even if he had not reason, pressure outs people. It is always good at this stage of the game. For this you paint him less town than Cookie AND slightly scummy? BAD Cephiro! 3.AnxiousHippo Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral. I’m fine with this 5.Tunkeg Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon. Cephiro, Cephiro, I know you wanted to speak but damn, Tunkeg has had the best posting yet. Much better than yours. You even say ” Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points.” Voting for a lurker is pressuring them to participate. Sure it may have been a safe move, but you can’t say shit since you haven’t even voted yet. You cast doubt on how successful his pressuring will be but don’t offer anything else. In essence you are undermining his methods which you even admit that “He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on” Please try and explain why a townie would try and discredit the way someone is trying to out scum without offering an alternative? Any effort is good effort and all your “analysis” does is undermine Tunkeg. You have no proof for why he might be scummy other than his aggressiveness but even that you say is because he wants to start discussion. You admit you have nothing on him, so why cast doubt on his methods? BAD Cephiro! 6.Jitsu Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads. Good lordy, he was the first person to pressure Cookie about the stupidity of advocating a no-lynch. That is a damn site more than you have done and far and beyond Cookie, but no Cookie is slightly town but Jitsu is null? BAD Cephiro! 7.Xeris All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral. 8.Gretorp Same as above, neutral. Fine with these. 9.Gonzaw Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here. This is where you sunk your ship. I agree that Gonz is town but put these two quotes together Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here You give the first a slight scum/neutral read and the second a town read. BAD Cephiro! 10.Blurry Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum. 11.Probulous Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back. Fine with these (obviously). 12.CatsnHats Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions! This says nothing about Cats at all. You say one thing then produce a nice WIFOM to discredit what you just said. You actually say anything about him at all. I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. Whatever man, you are heading for a lynch ## Vote Cephiro | ||
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On January 05 2012 10:46 CatsnHats wrote: Hey Probulous. I don't know if you saw this before you posted. It was about 2 hours before you posted so it's in the time range you gave for not being able to read it yet. It includes my thoughts on CookieMaker you asked for. As for Xeris and Gretorp. I don't think not contributing at this point is an excuse for them being clean. In regards to make vote, I asked for clarification on the voting process and AnxiousHippo answered. I didn't want to be locked in because there are 23 hours left til the deadline. After I learned that I wouldn't be locked in, I voted for Gretorp to pressure him to add content. I even explained that in the post quoted below. I hope you just hadn't read these yet. Otherwise you just picked posts that supported your case and blatantly left off the one's that exonerated me. This was the last post I read before I started my analysis (I think, can't be 100% certain since it was ages ago) On January 05 2012 07:00 gonzaw wrote: Ehmm Jitsu, when I said I wanted your thoughts on Liquid/Gretorp/Cats/etc I meant it lol. But really, what are your thoughts on these players? So no I had not read your thoughts. Reading now | ||
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On January 05 2012 10:46 CatsnHats wrote: Hey Probulous. I don't know if you saw this before you posted. It was about 2 hours before you posted so it's in the time range you gave for not being able to read it yet. It includes my thoughts on CookieMaker you asked for. As for Xeris and Gretorp. I don't think not contributing at this point is an excuse for them being clean. In regards to make vote, I asked for clarification on the voting process and AnxiousHippo answered. I didn't want to be locked in because there are 23 hours left til the deadline. After I learned that I wouldn't be locked in, I voted for Gretorp to pressure him to add content. I even explained that in the post quoted below. I hope you just hadn't read these yet. Otherwise you just picked posts that supported your case and blatantly left off the one's that exonerated me. It doesn't exonerate you in my eyes. You do eventually vote, but it is the safest play possible. Plus even though Gretorp has not posted much he noticed the same things I did before I posted. Green in my eyes. Cephiro is posting like a mad man without saying anything. He accuses people but never votes, when he does it is for an inactive. I am sorry but we are not voting for an inactive today. Mafia would not be so stupid as to not post at all and even then we only have at most three inactives (Blurry, Gretorp, Xeris). Are people seriously suggesting that mafia is just not posting? You either think these guys are the mafia, or someone who is posting actively is. Besides, if they don't contribute we lynch them tomorrow. Hopefully they don't post at all and get mod-killed. Inactives, lurkers are not a problem. I think it is highly likely that there are active mafia trying to push a lurker wagon. Hence, no lurker lynch for me, there is enough evidence for other mafia, lynch them. | ||
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##vote: Cephiro I don't mind doing it more than once | ||
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On January 05 2012 11:01 Jitsu wrote: @Probulous Going to skip reading your Cephiro filter until I can look it over, since you obviously think you have him tagged as most scum. I don't want to be biased from you're post. Fair play but take particular notice to his "analysis", it is damning in my eyes. | ||
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On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote: Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now: I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp. My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. Thanks for nailing the coffin. In the same post, the very same post, you quote Jitsu as explaining your thinking clearly and then says he is suspicious because his content is fluffy? Surely, a normal logical response is just to ask Jitsu to provide more thinking, because what he has provided has been useful. Instead you cast doubt on him. Either you think he is suspicious and act on it, or you don't and act on it. Here you do neither, you give and take in the same post. The irony is that you berate Cats for not taking a stand but you do exactly the same thing. | ||
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Gretorp (2): Tunkeg, CatsnHats Cephiro (1): Probulous CookieMaster (1): Gonzaw Have I missed anyone? This is what searching "##" brings up so if you didn't, your vote is not counted. | ||
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Updated: Just a voting update since we none in the OP Gretorp (2): Tunkeg, CatsnHats Cephiro (2): Probulous, Sheth CookieMaster (1): Gonzaw Have I missed anyone? This is what searching "##" brings up so if you didn't, your vote is not counted. | ||
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On January 05 2012 12:18 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Yea, thats same for me Andre. Ok, heres what I've got. I didn't actually take the time to read through Cephiro's List completely. I simply saw that a few things on it were pointing out scum and he was worried about me in perticular. Those were things I wanted to see and saw them. However after re-reading them I realize that they don't pressure anyone. Hes being so completely passive and neutral. This is a trick that scum use generally. They don't want to commit to anything because they think that as long as there not stand outish in one way or another they won't get lynched. They live for that center world where they don't contribute much, but seem to. Even fairly recently : Its just so bad. He is just following "people providing good reasoning". This may seem like something we should all be doing, and it is. However on night one, if you are going to follow it, you follow it through. Because of this and because my first worry was about Cephiro I'm definetly liking Probulous. I say we lynch Cephiro. The benefits for this are great. We can completely tell about Probulous being town or not (which actually isn't too great, as that means he will probably die, Medic shoould definetly include him in WIFOM if there is a medic though!). And hopefully me as well, as I think hes a good lynch. However if hes town we'll also have a good read on a few other people who are sticking out to him. Perhaps lynching Cephiro will just be who the mafia buss. However I think that its a percentage game. And right now, Cephiro is definetly my highest scum read, ##Vote: Cephiro @CatsNHats -You seem oh so scummy. Whats your take on lynching Cephiro? Would you be willing to join in on this little train we're starting? Anyone else willing to hop on board, don't forget to pack a vote. Hang on, this part is really bad The benefits for this are great. We can completely tell about Probulous being town or not (which actually isn't too great, as that means he will probably die, Medic shoould definetly include him in WIFOM if there is a medic though!). Think about it carefully, I have pushed my case based on his posts. If I am wrong, what does that tell you? Nothing! I have exactly the same information as anyone else. You don't like my analysis, show me why, but Cephiro's impending lynch says bugger all about my alignment. | ||
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On January 05 2012 12:15 gonzaw wrote: [/b]+ Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:59 CookieMaker wrote: My turn. This is my first big read. If you disagree with any of it, please raise the issue. Here are my "Strongest" town reads. Each section will have a brief summary and then reads for the player and reads against, with bolded sections of quotes being the evidence I'm presenting. This was originally going to be longer but I'm starving and heading for groceries asap so I just took the best of what I had. For this play the pro-town evidence feels significantly stronger. Cephiro: -This read is on the big assumption that he is not a highly experienced player disguising himself as a rookie. Otherwise: + Show Spoiler + Appeared nervous at the start with the majority of his math, but I'm chalking it up to newbie nerves. He then goes on to be both active and helpful (even though he may not realize it). Many of his posts seem very slightly hesitant, but my guess on that is because he's seen how these games can quickly bandwagon an innocent townie to hell and he's just slightly afraid. My gut feeling on him is by far the strongest, and if I had to pick anyone right now to be pro-town, it's him. Pro-town evidence: + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote: I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. Also... What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? In this first post the sentence I like is bolded. Straightforward and to the point, and clearly trying to integrate what he read in other games before this started. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment. Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise. Player List: 1.CookieMaker For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me. 2.Liquid`Sheth Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post. 3.AnxiousHippo Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral. 5.Tunkeg Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon. 6.Jitsu Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads. 7.Xeris All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral. 8.Gretorp Same as above, neutral. 9.Gonzaw Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here. 10.Blurry Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum. 11.Probulous Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back. 12.CatsnHats Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions! I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. More of the same. He lays his cards on the table for all to see, and it's doing it for me. My gut tells me that while a mafia player might make the same post to gain trust, they wouldn't attempt to analyze as hard as he has. Rather, they would use it as more of a confusion technique and be even more wishy-washy. When Ceph isn't sure on someone, or has a weak gut feeling, he still says it, rather than trying to present two opinions and fuel a debate. Similarly, when he's sure of himself, he also is very direct in stating his point. Not only that, but he was dead-on when he said my posts thus far didn't have very much useful content. He was right, I had nothing to go on at the time and was still fishing. I have bolded sections in the above quote that reflect what I like about this. Even though his EBWOP was slightly apologetic, it had a very natural feel to me, out of genuine concern rather than fear. Maybe I'm reading too far into this, but the apology might be a gut reaction to himself having to read so much (a realization I also had as a first-time player). + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote: Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now: I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp. My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. This recent post is another goodie IMO. Again very direct and unafraid of his position and stance on strategy, as well as attempting to offer genuine contribution. I've again bolded what he says that really ring a green bell with me. His consistency shines through. [bAnti-town evidence: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 04:41 Cephiro wrote: Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example: On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion. I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me. Really this is more town-evidence IMO, but some might say that the speed with which he flipped the accusation around makes it suspicious. I tend to think that it's just a bit of an instinctive OMGUS, otherwise he handled the pressure really well and without any trace of guilt. As well, I kinda like his read on Sheth and the way he's now using Sheth's own tactic against him :D -Slightly Bandwagon-ish: He is slightly following the bandwgon on the Xeris train, but I don't blame him at all here because I'm of the same mind. On the whole his contribution has really stuck out to me as useful (or trying to be) rather than "active filler". This is one of the few reads that I'm much more sure of. If there is a medic in this game, my recommendation would be on his protection because I think he will be one of the standards around which the town needs to rally. Gonna grab food, and compile more reads, and tonight I'm gonna hit y'all with some knowledge. Current Opinion: Very Pro-Town So, you made a great analysis of why a player is town. Is this game about finding townies? No. I already said this to Cephiro, our priority is not finding townies. Your priority is not posting walls of text of who you find townie. Your priority is finding scum. Now, apparently you forgot about that part. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 08:13 CookieMaker wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:58 AnxiousHippo wrote: This is one of the worst posts so far. Cookiemaker points out that Probulous leaves right after making accusations, and later says that he's about to go to sleep too. He also talks vaguely about how people are trusting eachother but so far it's only been cephiro and catsnhats, there's barely any trust from everyone else. He then uses a fancy metaphor which always annoys me, like they're trying to sound better. Then he posts some more useless metaphorical stuff saying he wants people to be a bit more active. and then a poem. cookiemaker clarify what players seem to be trusting eachother sheth tell us what posts are bothering you Also, where did blurry go? @AH The players who I saw as "trusting" each other were Sheth, Probu, and Gonz, who seemed to be employing the similar tactic of applying "harmless" pressure to see what the responses would be. I was going to just come out and say it, but I didn't want to players under fire to be let off that easy, so instead I wrote the cute little Haiku  Now really going for food, stay tuned for more action. What? If I pressure people the same way as another player, I trust him? I don't think that makes much sense. Also, I don't really "trust" people in mafia games. I either think they are town, scum, or I'm indecisive. Even if they are town, I may still not trust them. For instance, I may not trust their reads. I believe Probu to be town for instance (for now, he's been absent for some time and I find that worrysome), but even if that's the case I don't really trust him for now. If he finds some scum, then maybe I will. Also, you never explained that "I will vote for the one that has less votes" part, it seems you are trying to ignore that we pointed it out. I think you are scum bro. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote: Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now: I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp. My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. Yes that's fine, let's just hope you keep your word that you'll try and find scum though. I'm sure other players will remind you that though. Also, where the hell is Xeris? He ignores my vote and posts completely, then disappears? Wtf? *sigh* this won't get us anywhere. Probu is right about the inactives though, unless we install a "lynch lurkers" policy lynch (or should have installed it long ago), lynching them will not give us that much info, and if they don't post more we can't really get any good reads on them. The thing is that other than the threat of a lynch, how do you pressure lurkers/inactives into posting? If we just let them pass then they could be inactive the whole game or as long as they want. If they are scum they can just cruise through the game. *sigh* I'll just not pay attention to it for now then, unless they post, which I want them to. I suppose this applies to Gretorp too, even though he posted more (but more nonsensical things). ##unvote: Xeris ##vote: CookieMaker You know what Probulous? You remind me of how I see those mafia vets here play. You know, post images that follow giant walls of text, analyzing "behaviours" and such. Now, although I feel you are town, I mostly feel you are a good player, and a dangerous one at that. If you end up being scum I'm sure you will fuck us up. So I urge other players to take a good look at Probu, even if they think he's town, just in case. Also Probulous, something I want to clear: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 10:14 Probulous wrote: Your support of discussing WIFOM scenarios was particularly bad. It just distracts town and adds nothing to finding scum. In UG I get shit from everybody because of this, and everybody thinks I'm mafia every game because of it (I was town every time). Hell, I'm the "WIFOM king" or something there supposedely I still stand by what I said. Imagine someone claims RBed or something on Day 4 or something, would you want people discussing WIFOM there? Even worse, would you want townies thinking there isn't any WIFOM involved? For instance, take that "If someone claims RBed, then there is a RBer" statement someone said before. If I hadn't mentioned that it's WIFOM, then townies may have believed it as true, and if scum fake-claimed RBer if there are 3 goons, we could be fucked. It's better to mention these scenarios as soon as possible when it doesn't have the chance of derailing any discussions, so townies know about it later. Also, not to be nitpicky here or anything but + Show Spoiler + Mafia would not be so stupid as to not post at all and even then we only have at most three inactives (Blurry, Gretorp, Xeris). Are people seriously suggesting that mafia is just not posting? Ehmm, isn't that WIFOM? Also agree that Cephiro isn't actually doing that much in terms of actually contributing, just posting a lot of "town reads" and such, but I already said this to Sheth, I don't actually know if the whole "contributing without contributing" thing that's going on here can apply to newbies who haven't played the game before. Specially with someone as excited to post as Cephiro, he may just post whatever he thinks, even though it may be unnecessary filler or such. I may be wrong though, but I won't take that into account for now. I like you  WIFOM is bad, yes what I wrote was WIFOM but it was hardly necessary to the point I was making. I do not believe that all mafia are lurking, sure people can vote them, I won't be one of them. But I concede your point about me WIFOming. I won't do it again. Discussing it helps no-one. If we have a situation where this comes up, for example people claiming, we discuss it then. Not now. It clogs up an already busy thread. I am not a smurf, so don't insinuate that I am. If people think I am dangerous, great. Try and be dangerous too. I don't want to be the only one pushing my reads hard. If you find someone suspicious, go after them hammer and tongs. | ||
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On January 05 2012 12:36 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Ok, I kinda agree with this too. I'd thought that anyone willing to start a lynch for a scum (If they were scum) would be crazy or bad. However in this set up with the KP always at one, I geuss its probably not a bad idea to lynch off a mafia first round. Or second round or whatever as long as your the one who brings up the case it should make you more townie. And honestly I still think it is going to make you crazy townie if he flips scum. However arguments like "well he started off the train on killing XXXX and he was mafia, so you must be town" really shouldn't be used here. As unless the mafia has a role (Roleblocker) hes not that important except for in the percentages game. The percentage game is still pretty important though. I don't see mafia starting a bus on one of their players right off the bat. It'd be too meta for me. Percentage wise (and with correct manipulation) its rare that first day lynches are mafia. And it really hurts mafia to lose one of the 3, when theres 9 town left. 2-8 or 3-8, those 3 left over can be so convincing. And as for your analysis, well I'm showing here why your analysis that his flip won't tell us anything. In honesty if he flips town, it makes you look a lot more like mafia. And if he flips Mafia it makes you look a lot more like town. For those reasons below. If hes town I'm under the same thing and maybe were mafia buddies starting a train on a poor little townie. Honestly all this talk is probably pointless as lynching mafia first round is pretty low. However I really like our reads on Cephiro and I'm pretty hopeful. Xeris / Gretorp whats your thoughts on this when your done doing stuff at work? Xeris is a REALLY pro-town read for me now. Andre I want you to be too, but your first post was bad. Give me your analysis and I hope I like it!!! how exactly do these posts give you REALLY pro-town read On January 05 2012 04:42 Xeris wrote: I don't favor randomly lynching people in the first night -- unless there is some actual suspicion. Statistically, maybe it's better to random lynch, but I feel like the chances you might randomly kill a cop // medic make it not worth it. I prefer using the first day to try to get reads on people, then wait until Day 2 to use the information gained in Day 1, based on who ends up dying / etc to make a more reasoned/educated prediction about who might be mafia. Randomly lynching is a really stupid idea. On January 05 2012 05:34 Xeris wrote: If there are legitimate concerns about someone on the first day, sure, I'd probably participate in a lynch. But I don't really see how you can determine that on the first day when you have basically NO information to go off. Further, because this is online mafia, you can't even read people the same way... I don't see how you can possibly get a good enough ready on someone in the first day, before any action has happened, enough to confidently lynch someone. It is just some posting about the stupidity of Random lynching which no-one was advocating at the time. If anything it is filler but it doesn't contribute. To me Gretorp has actually called out Cephiro for his waffle, which is more than Xeris has done. Come on man, you are making it hard for me. Think about this carefully And as for your analysis, well I'm showing here why your analysis that his flip won't tell us anything. In honesty if he flips town, it makes you look a lot more like mafia. And if he flips Mafia it makes you look a lot more like town. For those reasons below. If hes town I'm under the same thing and maybe were mafia buddies starting a train on a poor little townie. Whether he flips Town or Mafia says nothing about you or me. I am pushing his case based on what he has provided. I don't know whether he Mafia for sure, but he is the most likely. he is also the most dangerous because people don't seem to see what I see. If he flips town I am no more Mafia than if he flips Mafia. What is your read on Cookie? Particulary in light of Jistu's post. | ||
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On January 05 2012 12:35 CookieMaker wrote: @Probu: Very interesting how we seem to be the only two doing any real research before pointing the finger, yet coming up with such a contrasting detailed analysis. I like your format style, btw. One thing I want to clear up: Be careful reading Ceph's "nail int he coffin post" again though. All of your analysis on that post was based on the contrast between quoting Jitsu and then giving a suspicious read on him. In fact, Jitsu asked him a question earlier and the response he was giving was about my posting habits thus far. More reads, as promised: Here is #2 Sheth: + Show Spoiler + Pros: Sheth I like, although mainly because of his posting style (and probably my fanboyism). He opened early by putting pressure on Cats and forcing the development of dialogue in the first 24 hours. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 12:17 Liquid`Sheth wrote: CatsnHats, welcome to your first game of mafia. You say "Not lynching unless reasonably certain". This is a scummy thing to say, as its leaning towards not lynching today. You realize there is no way to be "reasonably certain" on day one. Get it together and find some scum, or I'm picking you for our day one lynch. He showed he was unafraid of initially being provocative. One other big indicator for me was going back and actually re-reading his filter from his election Mafia. (Link) In the vast majority of these posts he asks a lot of garbage questions that screamed scum at me, while providing little good content analysis in return Cons: His open reference to "changing his playstyle" (below) had me initially worried. For the record "arctocod" was greenie in Election Mafia, but had more of a "moderation" feel than Sheth is currently giving me. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 12:17 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read. This is invaluable to us, and please use any reads you have on me. I'm actually going to try and post like Arctocod did in our last game. The open reference to his previous playstyle was interesting to me, and I wanted to see how it would play out. The other two things that Sheth did to initially worry me have since given me the feeling that he was just settling back into a more natural position in the game. Under other circumstances, I'd call them wishy-washy, but because I've followed him as a fan for so long I truly believe he has this deep-rooted instinct to do good, and simply can't bring too much harm to others until he's sure of their alignment. They are: 1. Letting Cats out of the pressure cooker before any real pressure was applied. On January 04 2012 13:47 Liquid`Sheth wrote: CatsnHats come on, be counteragressive. I'm picking on you for no real reason. I just want to get you to toughen up. If it comes down to it at the end and someone is agressive like this against you, and you just KNOW hes mafia, you better toughen up. I'm chalking this up to Sheth feeling bad for "almost" ruining Cats' game. Clearly Cats is a newbie and Sheth knows that badwagons are a very scary thing for a newbie on their first day. 2. Doing a bit of flip-flopping. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 03:58 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Ahhh yea. Gretorp getting busy. I like it. Were going to get some scum. Ok, well, I'm going to analyse some games for a bit, as I have to work. However before I go, I geuss I'll point out one thing. Everyone seems to be accusing everyone. It doesn't help, because we know its just one persons pressure and honestly we assume its fake pressure, because after all its day1 and we don't have any great reads. So, instead of this I recomend we get behind one person and see if they can tell us why they ARE NOT mafia. I was planning on leaning on Cephiro, for his post here : It comes down to a wall of text that tell us nothing. It just makes it look like hes contributing a lot when in fact he hasn't come up with a new opinion and his others posts are very non-committal. Just like wishy washy, things, and I thought it was just weird. However this morning you posted Which has some negatives and actually contribues some, so I'll back off for now. Kinda ironic that you wanted me to post my read today and my read was on you. @Tunkeg we shall see. CatsnHats what do you think about this Gretorp guys first too posts. Good / bad / scummy?!? This one I'm more convinced isn't flip-flopping, but rather just openly stating his opinion at an opportune time (despite the lack of real content in the post). Current Read: Light Green. Relatively certain on town-ship, but still open to the possibility that I am blinded by fanboyism. You know, I have shovel that might help you dig that hole a lot faster  As Jjitsu points out, I am not lynching a Townie, so why find one? Find me a scum and I might listen. Cephiro may have been responding to a question but I cannot find a reason why town would cast suspicion on someone, without calling them out. If you think they are not contributing, you say so and if necessary vote for them. That post reads as someone trying to look like they are contributing without standing in the spotlight. It just adds to the everything else I have posted about him. | ||
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On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Also, your crazy to not think that there is no relation between who you analyse and find scummy and whether or not you are scum. If the person we follow along with the most picks 3 town in a row, theres a solid chance hes mafia. If the person we follow kills 3 mafia in a row, theres a solid chance hes town. I don't know how you can't agree with that. Both Gretorp and Xeris are still null for me. I know this isn't scum-hunting but I have done a lot already so forgive me for this diversion. In short, no. If my analysis is good, and Cephiro turns out to be town, that means that Cephiro was a very scummy town. Right? It does not mean that I am mafia. I could be, but I could also be a town pushing who I think is mafia. How do you tell the difference? By the quality of the analysis. The same is true if he flips mafia, I agree it is unlikely that mafia would bus day 1. However, they could, the point being speculating about it gives us nothing. In my land, townie cred only exists from the scum you find. If I put together a thorough analysis on someone and they flip town, go back and read my analysis. Was I pushing something too far, was I focusing on some small irrelevant detail? That gives you clues to my alignment, not whether he flips green or red. Simply put you cannot tell whether I am town by whether Cephiro flips mafia or not alone. It is a classic WIFOM position. Would Scum bus or not bus, in my opinion who cares? You can only tell by going back and reading my case on him. | ||
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On January 05 2012 13:04 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler + [/b]+ Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 12:33 Probulous wrote: I like you WIFOM is bad, yes what I wrote was WIFOM but it was hardly necessary to the point I was making. I do not believe that all mafia are lurking, sure people can vote them, I won't be one of them. But I concede your point about me WIFOming. I won't do it again. Discussing it helps no-one. If we have a situation where this comes up, for example people claiming, we discuss it then. Not now. It clogs up an already busy thread. I am not a smurf, so don't insinuate that I am. If people think I am dangerous, great. Try and be dangerous too. I don't want to be the only one pushing my reads hard. If you find someone suspicious, go after them hammer and tongs. What's a smurf? 2 different accounts or something? No I'm not implying that (also it doesn't really matter), the fact is that you are playing like those other players, and that makes you dangerous in my book. Ehm, I prefer to discuss WIFOM in the early stages, preferably at the beginning of Day 1 where everybody derps and there is no discussion going on at all, than in the heat of an argument or something on Day 4 or Day 5 should the need arise. Imagine something happens in a night that makes people talk about WIFOM (maybe a Medic dies and someone claims RBed, or something). -If we hadn't discussed it before, then people would start doing it at that time. That would take away precious time to catch scum, could interfere with ongoing arguments, etc, specially if we are at LYLO or something -If we had discussed it before, then as soon as someone mentions anything you tell them "shut up and reread the thread, it was discussed before if you continue we lynch you" and bye bye WIFOM interference. For instance, if someone claims RBed, and another person says "Wait! He could be scum fake-claiming! bla bla bla" I will instantly shut him up and tell him to reread what I posted earlier. Also, just so the discussion about WIFOM doesn't become a WIFOM discussion itself (in the sense that it interferes ongoing discussions), let's just stop right here. Either agree or disagree, we can discuss it in Post-Game or Pre-Game of another game later. Yes a smurf is a vet playing under a different name. I disagree but we can leave it for post-game. If that situation came up I woudl tell people to shut-up about and if they didn't listen would make my own case and push it. If we lose because people are derps that is not my problem. I cannot make you vote one way or another if you are not willing to listen. Anyway, leave it for now and we can discuss afterwards. | ||
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On January 05 2012 13:08 CookieMaker wrote: Then it's a good thing I caught up before posting #3. Your evidence was everything I had against Cats. My plan was to transition out of "Sheth should have put more pressure on him" into "... and this is why". I felt like I was getting unlucky after analyzing 4-5 players and coming up with zero good scum reads and only 1-2 town reads (despite the consensus against Ceph, I'm still confident in my read). Finally when I stumble upon a clear winner for wishy-washy of the year award, you've already beaten me to it. Cats was going to be my big expose'. ##Vote for CatsnHats Your vote is formatted incorrectly Mr Scum. Post what you had on Cats, I want to see your anlaysis on why someone is scum. You can't sheep Jitsu and expect no-one to call you out on it. You post green read after green read and only when called do you attempt a scum hunt and then you claim someone elses work. | ||
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On January 05 2012 13:21 gonzaw wrote: Players do that? Why? Agreed.... See the first Student Mafia ElectricBlack was Palmar's smurf and Blazinghand was WBG's. In this case it was to coach but sometimes people smurf because they want to survive night one. If a vet comes into a game with a repuation for hunting scum, they are already a target, hence the need for a smurf. | ||
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On January 05 2012 13:23 CatsnHats wrote: Also why would Cookie flip red too? He's been on my scum list from the beginning and he has now voted for me. Bad WIFOM, bad! Your vote says nothing about Cookie and visa versa. If both of you are scum there is no way to tell whether you are bussing each other or not, so ignore it. My understanding of Jitsu said was essentially you two are behaving similarly and look similarly scummy. Thus if one flips it is likely the other will. | ||
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 I had Cats pegged as scum already, nothing he has done has convinced me otherwise. I would be willing to change my vote if Cephiro is not going to get lynched today. But only once he has returned. | ||
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