EPTI find greys team to be reasonable and probably rhe best team that csn be put tofether without me on it so i willvote yay
Resistance I - London Calling - Page 5
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
I find greys team to be reasonable and probably rhe best team that csn be put tofether without me on it so i willvote yay | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
A ) ir team is formatyed wrong u nwed to repost it i think B) y u no vote own team? I unvote you | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
Also i preemptive nayvote rad while at it | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
When you do i will yayvote | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
On December 31 2011 05:14 Radfield wrote: Why did you not try to persuade other players to vote nay against my team? Why, when you were obviously around and apparently already thought I was scum, did you wait 3 hours before nay voting my team? Why have you ignored this post that I made: post. I say ignore, because you have not called me a liar, and you keep pretending I haven't responded to that argument. Why did you only post your reasons for nay voting my team when you got called out by Greymist? You state I was obvious scum at that point yet you did nothing to stop my team from going through. In fact it appears you would never have posted in depth your reasons for voting against my team unless greymist had called you out. Do you deny that? Radfields strat is to ignore my questions and make other questions fine i will wait for keyboard to respond to you greymist you got a yayvote from me but ur slef-yayvote post is miformatted | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
On December 31 2011 05:17 Radfield wrote: Yeah, I pretty much agree with your team, but would like to swap you out for me. Hope you understand  If Toad is willing to run me, him, palmar and VE I will nay vote you and yay vote him. If he is not willing to run that team than I will approve your team, as I feel it is second best. However, I admit I am not particularly willing to yay vote a team that has blazinghand's support... what is this if you are like "oh i think this team is god but i would swap gm 4 me" and it's like "hurr durr i am scum and want excuse to nayvote so i will antiparrot bh" scum move imo | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
that @ all ur voting post | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
On December 31 2011 05:28 Blazinghand wrote: Indeed you make a fair point; let me note however that it makes sense from the "rad is scum" perspective. I don't know if you, good sir, have been paying much attention, but in my opinion many things radfield says do not make sense, as part of an intentional attempt to obfuscate our discussions | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
On December 31 2011 02:23 Blazinghand wrote: See, I think you don't believe me because you're scum and you have no reason to believe me. I think you deliberately picked me to be part of your team because of my response to your initial post, thinking that I would be a good "fall guy" for when the team failed. I think you're scum, and I thought that yesterday. See, you claim that it's scummy to vote against a team with myself on it. However, imagine the following situation: A day 1 team is proposed, and I am on it, but so is a very very scummy player. A player so scummy that I actually think that the team is more likely to fail than normal, even taking into account that I am a town player. Naturally, I vote against the team. Then, said player and his scumbuddy hammer home the discussion, ending Day 1 and sending us to the night phase. If I were a scum player, and you are not a scum player, and you pick me for the team, it's true I could play some longwinded game of "oh hey guys I think radfield is scum, i'm gonna nayvote this team." I could stick my neck out for no real reason and take on these arguments, drawing a great deal of attention to myself. I don't think that would make a lot of sense though. A mafia player who had the good fortune to get picked day1 certainly wouldn't vote against his own team. If he was trying to abdicate his responsability for the vote, he'd just not vote at all. And he certainly wouldn't pick out one guy and label him scummy. On the other hand, if I'm a town player, I identified a bad team and voted nay on it, even though I was on it, because I want town to succeed. Oh, hey, that actually sounds like a simple, clear, and non-convoluted explanation for why my actions make sense! Your response is a complicated vague convoluted explanation for my actions: On December 31 2011 04:40 Radfield wrote: Before I proposed my team, what made me very very scummy? Please elaborate. Allow me to lay out a simple, clear and non-convoluted explanation for your actions as scum: You are scum, you are placed on the Day 1 team, knowing you will sabotage the mission and that it will fail you immediately seek to both distance yourself from the team, while simultaneously casting suspicion on another player on the mission. It's pretty classic scum play actually. Townie is getting lynched, scum pops in towards the end and yells about how dumb the lynch is and how said player is obviously town. 10:26 Radfield proposes a team 10:29 Blazinghand questions the reasons for the team 10:31 Radfield posts his reasons for his team Over the next 3 hours 3 people vote yes for my team. I had not yet voted so that makes it already at 4 votes, making the team virtually assured. At this point Blazinghand returns to the thread and votes against my team calling me scummy. Keep in mind at this point the team is pretty much already assured to go through. Blazinghand then makes a number of posts, but none of them related to the team or voting. In fact, other than when he is directly asked by Greymist he does not mention the team. He is obviously around in the thread(answers greymist 10 minutes after the question is asked) but is not trying to stop players from voting for my team. Think about this for a second. Blazinghand is sure that I am OBVIOUS scum. So sure is he that I am scum, he is voting against a team which includes himself on Day 1. Yet despite his sureness, he makes absolutely no effort to dissuade other players from voting through my team. This is a team he is almost sure is going to fail, yet he waits for 3 votes before mentioning in passing that he will not vote for my team. Even after he states his 'nay' intention he makes no effort to halt the team from getting passed. Blazinghand is a spy You seriously think that's a legit response? You are aware the townspeople in this thread are not the chief producers of warm linens and undergarments. They are not notorious for their fluffy hair and affinity with semi-nomadic herders. Basically what im saying is: they are not sheep. Anyone who reads your post and thinks "oh yes this is a good strat that scum would do and this would be a reasonable choice" is clearly an idiot, or hasn't though things through. If you want a good strat for scum check out jackal's weaving and dodging You are probably the only one who finds me over-the-top scummy, because any reasonable person is thinking "wait blazinghand in addition to being generally sexy, suave, likeable, and basically a great guy, is making some good points here. Let me think about this. Like, how is it not the best explanation that I 1) fingers you as scum 2) is like "hey guys lets think about this before voting 3) try to stop the quickhammer and you're like "hey man why you not try to stop it harder" well you know what I did what I could. maybe I could have done better but I didn't think people would be all over that terrible team like a dog on a butt-flavored biscuit. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
That being said this is a great case against rad. also that whole thing was "assuming rad's assumption was true" but i do not think it is true | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
Zona you think me + rad are spy right... but... if we are "pretending" to disagree one of us will be yay and one will be nay on most teams am i correct? each of us will say "wellt he other guy is a spy so i dont' like teams he likes" but then why in this case is it that the team is no good? if radfield were yay and I were nay would it be good? or do we both need to vote nay on a team for it to match your approval? In fact if your theory is correct palmsr is town right?? I dont see why you votr nay | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
Happy new years Brb hangovr | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
Also VE what makes you think Palmar is a bro and not a spy | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
On January 02 2012 08:19 Blazinghand wrote: Actually I'm unvoting my nay; it's possible that Palmar is the true villain here. Oh hey look its a post by blazinghand that's nto being read let me translate for you "since palmar was on both teams, i admit there's a possibility that he sabotaged n1 and I was wrong about radfield-- that being said, i'm not ready to yay-vote this team" | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25559 Posts
33% chance of Blazinghand 33% chance of Palmar 33% chance of Radfield What are (randomly) the odds of 1 spy on d1 team? there's a 1/3rd chance for the first guy to be a spy, right? so assuming that, for the other two not to be spy, there is a 3/4ths chance to not pick the 2/8 ppl who are spies, then a 5/7ths chance not to pick the 2/7 people who are spies, meaning there is a 1/3*3/4*5/7 = 0.1786 of the first guy being a spy "but wait blazinghand" you say "what if the first guy is town, then the second guy is spy? well don't worry man, i can help you with that. Check this: the odds of the first guy being town is 2/3rds, right? well ok if the second guy is a spy there's a 3/8ths chance of getting him as spy, then if the third guy is a town, there's a 5/7ths chance of him being town... which comes out to 2/3 * 3/8 * 5/7 = 0.1786 of the second guy being a spy "oh shoot blazinghand" you say "how does that work?" well, we're just multiplying probabilities, so the order doesn't matter, right? The one thing we can determine for sure is that it should be the same probability of a single person on that team being a spy. That makes sense, yes? Adding these three probabilities together, the probabilities come out to 53% chance of exactly 1 spy on N1 team! That still leaves a lot of room for the possibility of 2 spies N1. What are the odds of 2 spies on the d1 team? The odds of there being 2 spies means that after there has been picked a spy (1/3rd chance) there is another spy pick, either immediately (1/4 chance), and then the third spy ISN'T picked (6/7) chance or there is a town pick then a spy pick (the other 3/4 of the time, there is a 2/7 chance of a second spy). (1/3) * (2/8) * (6/7) = 0.0714, and with three combinatorial routes, this leaves us with a 21% chance of 2 spies on D1. Well, what about the remaining 26% chance? There is a small but non-zero chance that there were no spies D1 (which wasn't the case, but for completeness sake) and the odds of that would be 2/3rd * 5/8 * 4/7 (order irrelevant) which gives us a 23% chance. There's also a very small chance that the mission actually contained 3 spies, which would be a 1/3rd * 2/7 * 1/6 = 1.5% chance. Very small. Now you're probably thinking "Wait why would there be 3 spies N1, Blazinghand? that sounds horribly unlikely and sub-optimal for the spies, doesn't it?" Why yes, reader, that DOES? See, the thing a raw probability calculation like this leaves out is that in every situation, there's a chance that the spy is Radfield, rather than Blazinghand or Palmar. See, if Blazinghand or Palmar is the spy, that has no impact on whether the other dude (Blazinghand or Palmar) is the spy. However, if Radfield is the spy, he's the dude who put together the team. He could easily chose to include 1, 2, 3, or 0 spies regardless of probability. This makes things much more interesting. Now imagine you're Radfield. This means you are a spy and are totally devious and smart etc etc. So you lucked into a d1 captainship, and you get the feeling people are gonna sheep all over you. You posted a question and some people have made some vaguely scummy d1 posts (Zona, Blazinghand both made posts prior to Greymist's warning about posting anything that could be used as spy meta). What's an optimal strategy? Well, as Radfield, you'd pick your scumbuddy Palmar, who has been judiciously silent, and Blazinghand. Blazinghand, being the mad nerd baller that he is, will nayvote the team, looking even scummier, but luckily the (now probably not) scum Jackal comes in and hammers the vote. Now, you get into a big long argument with Blazinghand and Palmar sort of chills. Townies, operating under the assumption that there was 1 spy N1 (when really there were two-- you sabotaged and palmar did nothing, so it looked like there was only 1 spy), are not going to select an "only new dudes" 4-man team. They don't want to select Blazinghand, because you've made a case against him. And, despite (or because of) your best efforts, Blazinghand has made a case of sorts against you. Naturally, the pick Palmar. You wait until a team of 3 townies plus Palmar gets suggested, and of course it passes-- nobody wants a team with Blazinghand on it, and you are vaguely suspicious to some. Palmar sabotages, and now things are looking scary. People immediately assume it's not Palmar, even though he's the common article between the two missions. Some people are like "Well radfield isn't confirmed town any more" and some people are suspicious of Palmar, but Blazinghand is still on everyone's scum list... and then your Third man swoops in, Zona, who busts out this big "Blazinghand and Rad are working together" theory and it doesn't really make sense but people buy it because people will buy things when they're desperate. Zona took a hit earlier during the "is this a scum strat being said" deal, but things start to make sense. Radfield/Blazinghand/Zona? could be. Radfield/Blazinghand/someone else? maybe. But these people aren't paying attention to the facts and the facts are that Radfield is scummy and the ONLY REASON HE WOULD BRING ME D1 when I looked scummy would be to entrap me as he has! it's an elaborate plot | ||
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