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TL Mafia XLVII - Page 131

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sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 28 2011 18:04 GMT
#2601
Hmm, how is that going to help? Let's supose there are 5 lurker bane claims. Mafia can choose to not claim any of their lurker banes and shoot all of them at night. They can also choose to have some of them claim and keeping all of them alive. I think there will be a good portion of mafia hiding amongst the lurkers, since this game has so many of them, it makes it the ideal hiding place for mafia, so the role is not useless. Can you please explain the advantages of your plan?
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
November 28 2011 18:04 GMT
#2602
I'd want them to claim before night so they can be checked out. Basically instead of just letting ourselves get capped off to death, turn the game into a smaller problem.

Have our currently non-threatening roles claim and then post their cases against lurkers that they will submit to the mods. We already know Scum aren't going to kill off lurkers, so this doesn't really hurt us by having them be transparent. Let the lurker banes kill announce their kills and then we will know they have proved they are that role by death. We know how much Mafia KP there should be, we know there are Vigis, and so we'd easily know how much of the KP out there belongs to our own LBs.

From there it's just a matter of Detectives coming clean with investigations.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
November 28 2011 18:07 GMT
#2603
On November 29 2011 03:04 sandroba wrote:
Hmm, how is that going to help? Let's supose there are 5 lurker bane claims. Mafia can choose to not claim any of their lurker banes and shoot all of them at night. They can also choose to have some of them claim and keeping all of them alive. I think there will be a good portion of mafia hiding amongst the lurkers, since this game has so many of them, it makes it the ideal hiding place for mafia, so the role is not useless. Can you please explain the advantages of your plan?


So if our lurker banes call out who they are going to shoot that night, and a lurking player all of a sudden pops up and says DONT SHOOT - that is an ideal target for Vigilantes or Detectives.

Basically instead of just sitting around letting the Scum do as they please, I think the Town needs to be aggressive with PRs and force the Scum to make choices. Seeing 8 players dead who were pretty active does not sit well with me.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
vaderseven
Profile Joined September 2008
United States2556 Posts
November 28 2011 18:08 GMT
#2604
A mass lurked bane claim now? That makes it viable for the scum to target them then lurk. It defeats the main pupose of their role.
Hier
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
2391 Posts
November 28 2011 18:09 GMT
#2605
On November 29 2011 02:46 Palmar wrote:
I explained the YM lynch.

Of course you would explain it; who wouldn't explain away a scum slip-up as something else?
Let others decide if your explanation if worthy, don't assume you're clean because you "explained it".
"But on a more serious note..." -everyone on this forum at some point.
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
November 28 2011 18:12 GMT
#2606
On November 29 2011 03:08 vaderseven wrote:
A mass lurked bane claim now? That makes it viable for the scum to target them then lurk. It defeats the main pupose of their role.


It is a neutral role that isn't guaranteed to hit lurking Scum. If they target claimed lurker banes then wouldn't that free up Detectives and Vigilantes to act, and make medic choices easier?

Is that a bad thing?
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 28 2011 18:13 GMT
#2607
I don't uderstand how that's suposed to help. Mafia possibly has medics and roleblockers. They can let the shots go off only when they hit townies and can even wifom us to death protecting a townie. Mafia can double stack someone and fuck with the logic behind the kp calculation. Mafia can have lurker bane themselves. If mafia has framer and we are limiting the dts to check people those checks are unreliable for confirming sanity. Mafia can kill off all lurker banes np.
I really don't see the point, can you provide an example where you think it would provide any useful information?
xtfftc
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United Kingdom2343 Posts
November 28 2011 18:16 GMT
#2608
On November 29 2011 02:08 Serejai wrote:
##Vote: supersoft
##Vote: Palmar


Down with the scum mayor and his brethren!

What happened with intrigue and do you intend to post an analysis on Supersoft like I asked you?

On November 29 2011 02:52 supersoft wrote:
I want to add to the current setup discussion, that we already have 2 dead Millers out of 10 dead people. I guess there might be even more...

Only two blues though, so it might be just luck. It's too low of a sample to come up with conclusions.
vaderseven
Profile Joined September 2008
United States2556 Posts
November 28 2011 18:17 GMT
#2609
It is a role designed to limit Lurker based strata and having them claim would limit that purpose.
Drazerk
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom31255 Posts
November 28 2011 18:18 GMT
#2610
Sorry I've been so inactive I have been ill the last few days.

I know we have a double lynch in place so here are my two targets -

as for my first vote I will be voting for Risen

During the mayoral election he started of voting for RedFF who had probably one of the weaker non troll campaigns

(Here and Here)


On November 25 2011 04:03 Risen wrote:
Voted redFF for mayor because he had his credentials up and I liked them. Prplhz would mos def be a close second because he actually made a really nice, helpful post. Potential scum post, but that's some serious mindfuck action if prplhz is scum. On the fence of whether to swap from redFF to prplhz. Help me decide? :S


prplhz appeals to him probably because of how his campaign was probably the most newb friendly and easiest to get behind without raising suspicion.

He later swaps to Palmar due to how Prp basically drops out of the running and how Red put no effort into his campaign

+ Show Spoiler +
On November 26 2011 06:44 Risen wrote:
Alrighty, I swapped my vote from RedFF to Palmar for a few reasons, and I feel like after reading a lot of this analysis I'm going to come up short but here's a few points from what I've been seeing.

1) My vote for RedFF was going to mean nothing. This isn't like real life politics where I'm making a statement, so I'd like someone I approve of to get office.

2) I'm not entirely sure I want sandroba to win over Palmar. Filtering between Plamar and sandroba has just given me the feeling that Palmar isn't scum and sandroba is 90% not scum. It's probably likely as all hell that neither of them are scum, and I'm just being paranoid about sandroba. I just didn't like that he wouldn't reveal his feelings on BC until night 2, his logic being that if BC is town he'll die and if he's not he must be scum (as far as I could gather, maybe I'm horribly off base)

3) I had originally wanted prplhz to get sheriff or mayor, but after he withdrew that left me with no one. Prplhz's last post in this thread up to this point didn't sit well with me either. I know he may feel Palmar is scum, but he has nothing to back it up other than Palmar's scum is good. I'm a noobie, but at this point the major candidates all have some sort of experience, and we're going to be in a tough spot no matter who is voted in should they turn out to be scum.

I feel like I had more to post but it slipped from my head. If anyone has any questions about this just let me know, there's probably something that's incoherent in here.




90% is a pretty high number to be certain someone is town, implying Palmar is town something only scum would know ( besides Palmar himself ) we also have to factor in that he later states he didn't even understand the DT plans that was going around at that point of the game a major factor in both Palmar's and Sandroba's campaigns.

Finally we have the scum tell ... which he repeated two more times.

On November 28 2011 12:09 Risen wrote:
Made it through my first day wooooooo


On November 28 2011 12:29 Risen wrote:
Day is same as night, more news at 11


The second one is actually even more funny - why would he say it at nine minutes passed the deadline into the next day rather than after Palmar's lynch of YM. It just seems like a horrible way to excuse a major scum tell ( knowing who would die )

Finally he repeats the exact same post after the night post as an act to cover it up

On November 28 2011 12:33 Risen wrote:
EBWOP: Made it through my first night wooooooo


##Vote: Risen



Also I am currently reading the exchanges between Palmar and Ace but I am leaning more on Palmar's side at the moment
Drazerk
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom31255 Posts
November 28 2011 18:21 GMT
#2611
Also lurker banes should not claim they will be too easy to manipulate and scum already have their own
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 28 2011 18:23 GMT
#2612
@Ace can you comment on my case on deconduo? I also linked you to my case on zeks to which you didn't respond either.
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
November 28 2011 18:26 GMT
#2613
On November 29 2011 03:13 sandroba wrote:
I don't uderstand how that's suposed to help. Mafia possibly has medics and roleblockers. They can let the shots go off only when they hit townies and can even wifom us to death protecting a townie. Mafia can double stack someone and fuck with the logic behind the kp calculation. Mafia can have lurker bane themselves. If mafia has framer and we are limiting the dts to check people those checks are unreliable for confirming sanity. Mafia can kill off all lurker banes np.
I really don't see the point, can you provide an example where you think it would provide any useful information?


I don't believe the Mafia has enough medics, and I don't believe they have a lot of roleblockers. Why WIFOM and protect a Townie when the Town still has Vigilantes that can act? Why would they role block a lurker bane unless it was guaranteed to hit Scum?

And I'm well aware of Scum LBs. Which is why I'd want all of the LBs in the game to claim and unclaimed LBs get lynched as they'd be Scum. If they all claim then we solve the problem of "figuring out which LBs are Town" as a way to solving the entire game.

Let the Framers do as they please. Honestly there isn't anything the Detectives can do except get to Day 4 with as many checks as possible. I'm trying to keep them alive as long by leveraging confirmation of LBs are Town. We either get X number of confirmed Townies, or get X number of people identified by Day 4. We aren't necessarily confirming sanity here - we just need a ton of information on people to get out in the open with as many DTs intact. I think just stumbling a long lynching people based on clues or shoddy cases just leaves Scum to make easy choices of who to kill. I think we all know it's going to be active players that get popped quickly leaving a bunch of lurkers and players that aren't really doing much left. Which is a sure loss for the Town.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Drazerk
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom31255 Posts
November 28 2011 18:33 GMT
#2614
On November 29 2011 03:23 RoyGBiv_13 wrote:
##Vote: zeks
##Vote: DeadlyPsycho


You was replaced by Zephridd
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
November 28 2011 18:33 GMT
#2615
On November 29 2011 03:23 sandroba wrote:
@Ace can you comment on my case on deconduo? I also linked you to my case on zeks to which you didn't respond either.


Is this it:


If you read his posts you would see he is not new at all. He especifically mentioned he played several games with BC and is making a comeback to mafia. However he is behaving like he was completely new to the game and give off a vibe that his opinion should be ignored. Even in that part he says "wow, I got destroyed" means he is not sticking up with his previous opinion, which he stated was from past experience. He is avoiding conflict and running away from the spotlight. That to me is typical scum behaviour.

I thought you would read him more carefully since I especifically pointed him to you. Do you agree with my acessment?


If so I don't agree. Staying out of the spotlight isn't something unique to Scum as plenty of Townies do it also. We'd need more context on why is he running away from conflict and well, what that conflict is.

I remember zeks being around a long time ago, but I don't remember him being a super active player. Now if you want to make the case that he is behaving that his opinion should be ignored? I'm all for it if you can show some context.

As for deconduo I'm undecided at the moment. Waiting for tnkted's post which I don't think I missed.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
annul
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2841 Posts
November 28 2011 18:34 GMT
#2616
do not let ace derail the BLATANT and obvious clue on zeks.

the vote needs to be on zeks. period.

if you choose to go on xtf or some other clued target thats up to you. but "hey everybody lets claim lurker banes" is retarded (it means mafia can ignore them and focus fire other targets; better chance to HIT those DTs ace claims wants to be better protected), etc. dont automagically assume ace is pro-town because he's ace.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 28 2011 18:35 GMT
#2617
To be honest I'm almost willing to try this. Considering how many players are active this game and how much kp scum has they can afford to even double stack every one of them. This game has little chance of success for town if we don't do something, I agree.
annul
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2841 Posts
November 28 2011 18:39 GMT
#2618
no. this is retarded. claiming lurker bane on day 2 does not help town. claiming at all on day 2 does not help town.

the statistics are such that to do so will help mafia at night, not town. by removing the lurker banes from the nightly kill lists, it makes the dts, vigs, medics, etc that much more likely to be killed. "oh but medics can target them better" if we have to rely on this we already lose.

we are NOT in a position where we need to narrow down day lynch targets. we have day lynch targets. we have clues for that purpose and, if the clues are not conclusive, we have our typical analysis.

i repeat; claiming now hurts town and helps mafia. focus fire on the correct targets: the obvious clues. if we have to fall back to analysis, we have many days of non-double lynch to do so.
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
November 28 2011 18:40 GMT
#2619
can you show me those statisitics that it will help mafia at night and not the Town?
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
annul
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2841 Posts
November 28 2011 18:42 GMT
#2620
i wish someone not in the obvious circle of reds would speak the fuck up

all you players who dont post need to grow testicles and start talking. because the people active right now are most likely reds. do not take your cues from people when you see 5 people all advocating dumb shit and i am the only one standing up to it. think about why i am always alone and no one comes to my defense? if i'm mafia dont you think more people would publicly support what i say? why is it that its always the bad ideas that have the public support now? think about it.

i can try to hold the fort by myself here but i need some indication that the message is sinking in.
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