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Meapak_Ziphh is not scum because Mr. Wiggles wrote an analysis on him, I doubt that the scum wanted either of them to get lynched day1, so Mr. Wiggles wouldn't try to make the lynch between the two of them.
jaybrundage is not scum because I think that a newbie would not throw a crazy vote 5 minutes into the game without consulting his much more experienced scum buddy. I don't think Mr. Wiggles would have gone out without giving jaybrundage some advice and I don't think jaybrundage looks coached, his newbieness looks very real.
I am never sure that anybody is scum. If I could lynch anybody right now I would lynch wherebugsgo, that's how sure I am but I kinda wanted some input from the rest of you before I made a case and none of you seem too hooked on the idea ... other than jaybrundage.
I don't like the no lynch idea because I don't think it is a good idea to blues. In case we don't have a detective there's going to be a ton of WIFOM involved, also it could all go wrong. And the way it looks, we're going to lynch jaybrundage, the guy who might be the hardest to get a concrete read on. Scum is never going to shoot him and we'll be left with your null tell still in 3 real days.
- 1 cop, 1 vt: Best case we win the game, worst case we lose 2 townies.
- 1 jail, 1 vt: Best case we confirm 3 townies, worst case we lose 2 townies without confirming anyone. There's a lot of WIFOM here.
- 1 doc, 1 vt: This case is laden with WIFOM as Scum can elect not to shoot to soft confirm doc's target. Most likely I think scum will just shoot two guys and we'll have wasted a lynch for nothing.
- 1 cop, 1 jail: Best case we win the game, worst case we lose 2 townies. Tons of stuff could go wrong, jailor could jail cop and scum could elect not to shoot that night. What would happen then?
- 1 cop, 1 doc: Best case we win the game, worst case we lose 2 townies.
- 1 jail, 1 doc: Best case we confirm 3 townies, worst case we lose 2 townies without confirming anyone.
I like the best case scenarios. I don't like the worst case scenarios. Imagine if we sit here in two days, our doc dead and another townie dead, no one claiming any other blue role and jaybrundage still alive. How would you like that situation? I don't like the idea of putting a huge responsibility on the blue(s) when we have no idea if they have the skill or ability to even further town's goal this game with an additional two nights to perform their actions. Ideally, we win the game but I'd much rather lynch jaybrundage than no lynch. If jaybrundage is at 4 votes at the end of the day I'll switch to him.
This isn't all thought out I admit but I'm not a huge statistics buff. I still think it's not a great idea to no lynch.
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He doesn't call him scum, he just says that it's a stupid question. This is objectively true and everybody else agreed, from there on it was about arguing your way out of a lynch, something that Mr. Wiggles didn't manage to do. wherebugsgo never pushed for Mr. Wiggles lynch, he actually refused to hammer him and said he'd rather have a no lynch instead of lynching hiro protagonist (this post and the next). His reason for not hammering was that he didn't want to listen to you and Palmar because in PYP:I he'd listened to town players and they made one singlewrong call (Foolishness) so he'd rather have a no lynch and it looked like hiro protagonist or no one until you arrived and hammered. Funny that he doesn't want to listen to townie sandroba because scum sandroba manipulated someone in a PM game, I really don't think this situation and PYP:I is the same and wherebugsgo is just hiding behind the last lesson he'd learned (he mentioned this in the post game too iirc).
wherebugsgo's scum is not afraid of arguing at all, and I don't think he bussed Mr. Wiggles in any way by pointing out one single scummy thing, especially not when he didn't push it at all after it. It was only because other players started asking questions and because, something no one could have foreseen, we decided that hiro protagonist wasn't scum, that Mr. Wiggles was brought up as lynch again.
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I think there's a much bigger chance of scum getting back in the game if we no lynch than if we lynch. There's a lot of stuff that can go wrong, imagine if jaybrundage is cop and he checks you and Erandorr or something. You should trust me on this sandroba, I'm willing to lynch jaybrundage over wherebugsgo as long as we don't no lynch. I think no lynch is a really bad idea.
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Uhmn, I ask him if he wants to lynch hiro protagonist and then he says that no lynch is the best alternative.
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I had that feeling too Meapak_Ziphh, but I thought he'd actually read some guides and then, Mr. Wiggles isn't in the QT and he hasn't written several posts for jaybrundage. Maybe he pointed out some stuff for jaybrundage that he could do or say, but that doesn't make any sense when jaybrundage elects to go for sandroba, which is a crazy move and I really doubt that Mr. Wiggles told him to do that, I should think that he would have told him to go for somebody else.
I'd much rather see jaybrundage hang than a no lynch. He's the second most scummy by far, even though I'd still prefer wherebugsgo. If there are 4 votes on jaybrundage before deadline, I'm gonna switch to him.
@sandroba
What do you want to do tomorrow then if jaybrundage flips green? You said you had a harder time reading newbies than more seasoned players, and I feel that your jaybrundage lynch isn't as much a scum read as it is a you-will-never-get-a-read-on-him-anyway read. Also, you could be dead tomorrow so I hope that you will be active tonight if jaybrundage doesn't flip scum.
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On November 20 2011 05:45 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2011 01:27 prplhz wrote:@Erandorr At the danger of being ever more of an idiot I don't think that hiro protagonist is scum. I skimmed some of his earlier games and he always looks like this. This post from PYP:I looks the same as his posts here, he never says anybody is scum. He mostly just focuses on who is town. Now, I know that there was a mayoral election on day1 in PYP:I but people still had to scum hunt. Also his logic was way off as illustrated in posts like this. I think his posts in that game looks a lot like his posts in this game, he is trying, in his own peculiar way, to create what he think is is a good townie atmosphere. The most townie tell for hiro protagonist in my opinion is that he voted for Mr. Wiggles as fourth. I don't think the lynch was certain at that point and I don't think that he bussed Mr. Wiggles. While sandroba had said that he liked the Mr. Wiggles lynch he had not voted yet and I don't think that anybody would bus their scum buddy on day1. I don't think scum would want any of them to die on day1 since that would give town 3 lynches to find the last scum, that's really uphill. I would like to lynch wherebugsgo. The simplest explanation is that scum don't want to die day1, don't draw attention to each other, and that overly newbie play is probably because someone is ... very new at this game. This leaves wherebugsgo. Also, I don't hate wherebugsgo's play, I think he's pretty good at mafia both as scum and as town, but whatever. I don't like the no lynch idea. I don't see what you are seeing in those posts, but hiro's posts in this game do not look like that. Also he's not focusing on finding townies in this game, and I don't even think the two games are comparable. Lastly, if the bolded were the case then I am not scum. I wanted Wiggles to be lynched, but I thought hiro was a better choice. If I were scum, I would've acted upon the fact that there were four votes left and hammered Wiggles. I'm very decisive as scum and not afraid of starting arguments, but I am afraid of things that make me look bad long term. Not hammering wiggles, I admit, made me look really bad. I also straddled the fence because I was unsure between hiro and wiggles, though my gut kept saying hiro was the better lynch. Ofc, at this point we don't know if hiro is scum or not, so I could very well still be right. I reasoned after the flip that it was unlikely though, since hiro voted fourth on Wiggles. I was the one who pointed this out to Meapak, who said the focus should be on me+hiro. If I were scum why would I point that out to Meapak, and basically give him a free pass to attack me? If I were scum I would have no interest in giving information to town, that would work against my win condition. I could have simply let Meapak chase after hiro because he missed the fact that hiro was the fourth vote on Wiggles.
He is focusing on finding townies. Maybe this is because he doesn't trust his own scum hunting abilities and instead he tries to find townies that he can trust. I think he has more confidence as scum, since he knows he's wrong and that he can't possibly he right it's easier to be more assertive. You even complained about it yourself that his list of reads didn't contain a single scum read.
Yes, it made you look bad that you didn't hammer Mr. Wiggles. You can say that you wanted him lynched as much as you want.
You pointed out something that 6 townies would have figured out eventually (I knew it, I would have stated it if you hadn't). These are easy points for scum to get town credit, you point out something that's important but that's going to be figured out in a short while anyway.
On November 20 2011 05:45 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2011 02:17 prplhz wrote:
Meapak_Ziphh is not scum because Mr. Wiggles wrote an analysis on him, I doubt that the scum wanted either of them to get lynched day1, so Mr. Wiggles wouldn't try to make the lynch between the two of them. This is WIFOM, though. I agree with you that Meapak doesn't look scum, but for different reasons than this. You can't simply assume scum won't make other scum look bad, because that's not always true. Think about it, I don't think Palmar would've said he thought the optimal play for scum day 1 was to bus unless it actually has happened. I didn't agree with it earlier but it's certainly possible, we just cannot rule things out based on unbased assumptions. That's how, for example, town often falls into the trap of getting a "confirmed townie" and letting him live.
No, it is not WIFOM that two scum do not want a lynch to be between themselves on day1. They want both to make it through day1.
Palmar said to ignore everything he said during the night including his hard bussing theory, a theory that also surprised me as I wrote in the thread. I don't propose lynching only between those who didn't vote for Mr. Wiggles, but I think that it is very much more likely that we find scum there so that's where I'm looking. We can think about something else later.
On November 20 2011 05:45 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2011 02:17 prplhz wrote:
jaybrundage is not scum because I think that a newbie would not throw a crazy vote 5 minutes into the game without consulting his much more experienced scum buddy. I don't think Mr. Wiggles would have gone out without giving jaybrundage some advice and I don't think jaybrundage looks coached, his newbieness looks very real. Wait again, how can you assume this? One person thinks jay looks coached, you think he doesn't look coached. Don't you see that there is no room here to just assume those things? We can't have it both ways, since between you and Meapak there's nothing objective that furthers one argument over the other.
Yea, it's hard to be objective about whether someone looks coached or not. Same about whether someone looks genuine or fake or fabricate and all that. I can only say that I doubt Mr. Wiggles would go out without giving some advice to his newbie scum buddy. Mr. Wiggles put a lot of effort into the thread when he was about to get lynched, do you really think he just totally ignored jaybrundage in the QT? That would make no sense.
On November 20 2011 05:45 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2011 02:17 prplhz wrote:
I am never sure that anybody is scum. If I could lynch anybody right now I would lynch wherebugsgo, that's how sure I am but I kinda wanted some input from the rest of you before I made a case and none of you seem too hooked on the idea ... other than jaybrundage. Up till this statement you hadn't said anything scummy, but I find this really strange. You wanted to lynch me, but you didn't push it strongly because you wanted other people's approval? That's backward thinking, you make a case on someone you think is scum and THEN you see how other people react. Waiting to make a case because you want to hear other opinions is rather weird, because you won't usually hear much unless you actually make the case to begin with.
Look through my games. I doubt I've ever pushed any lynch harder than this.
On November 20 2011 05:45 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2011 02:17 prplhz wrote:I don't like the no lynch idea because I don't think it is a good idea to blues. In case we don't have a detective there's going to be a ton of WIFOM involved, also it could all go wrong. And the way it looks, we're going to lynch jaybrundage, the guy who might be the hardest to get a concrete read on. Scum is never going to shoot him and we'll be left with your null tell still in 3 real days. - 1 cop, 1 vt: Best case we win the game, worst case we lose 2 townies.
- 1 jail, 1 vt: Best case we confirm 3 townies, worst case we lose 2 townies without confirming anyone. There's a lot of WIFOM here.
- 1 doc, 1 vt: This case is laden with WIFOM as Scum can elect not to shoot to soft confirm doc's target. Most likely I think scum will just shoot two guys and we'll have wasted a lynch for nothing.
- 1 cop, 1 jail: Best case we win the game, worst case we lose 2 townies. Tons of stuff could go wrong, jailor could jail cop and scum could elect not to shoot that night. What would happen then?
- 1 cop, 1 doc: Best case we win the game, worst case we lose 2 townies.
- 1 jail, 1 doc: Best case we confirm 3 townies, worst case we lose 2 townies without confirming anyone.
I like the best case scenarios. I don't like the worst case scenarios. Imagine if we sit here in two days, our doc dead and another townie dead, no one claiming any other blue role and jaybrundage still alive. How would you like that situation? I don't like the idea of putting a huge responsibility on the blue(s) when we have no idea if they have the skill or ability to even further town's goal this game with an additional two nights to perform their actions. Ideally, we win the game but I'd much rather lynch jaybrundage than no lynch. If jaybrundage is at 4 votes at the end of the day I'll switch to him.This isn't all thought out I admit but I'm not a huge statistics buff. I still think it's not a great idea to no lynch. I hope you meant three votes and not four, since four votes means jay would already be hammered and you would be wasting your vote. Most of the rest of the post is rather weird because the best case in all of the situations is that we win the game and the worst case is we lose! (lol wut) I mean, what was the point of all of that?
Yes, three of course.
Yes, it's a weird post. I just wanted to show that I'd thought about it, in the end I arrived at the same conclusion as a lot of other people: it's not worth it. I'm not a statistics buff so I can't give you numbers but it just seems to risky and town is in a good position right now so I don't think it's worth it.
On November 20 2011 05:45 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2011 03:56 prplhz wrote:
I had that feeling too Meapak_Ziphh, but I thought he'd actually read some guides and then, Mr. Wiggles isn't in the QT and he hasn't written several posts for jaybrundage. Maybe he pointed out some stuff for jaybrundage that he could do or say, but that doesn't make any sense when jaybrundage elects to go for sandroba, which is a crazy move and I really doubt that Mr. Wiggles told him to do that, I should think that he would have told him to go for somebody else.
I'd much rather see jaybrundage hang than a no lynch. He's the second most scummy by far, even though I'd still prefer wherebugsgo. If there are 4 votes on jaybrundage before deadline, I'm gonna switch to him.
@sandroba
What do you want to do tomorrow then if jaybrundage flips green? You said you had a harder time reading newbies than more seasoned players, and I feel that your jaybrundage lynch isn't as much a scum read as it is a you-will-never-get-a-read-on-him-anyway read. Also, you could be dead tomorrow so I hope that you will be active tonight if jaybrundage doesn't flip scum. As sandro pointed out (sometime yesterday?) sandro actually, from a scum perspective, probably doesn't have much thread cred. Look at it this way; by the end of day 1 he was one of the most inactive players, he was relatively indecisive, and there was never any suspicion on him. Even now there has been no suspicion on him. That's an excellent opportunity for scum to open up an attack, since they love players like that. It makes it look as if they are doing real analysis, they are obviously making an original attack, since no one else found that person scummy, and analysis can be fabricated because the player is relatively inactive. When you think about it like that, it's not so far-fetched that a scum player would attack sandro. The bigger assumption is actually the one you're making, that a new player wouldn't attack sandro since he's a well-known good townie or whatever. That assumption relies on wiggles telling him that, and trying to figure out what scum would do in that kind of situation is very similar to predicting or making sense of night kills; only scum know that.
sandroba has a lot of town credit, he hammered Mr. Wiggles. I don't think you could pick a worse day2 target than sandroba, especially for a new guy since he's gonna get destroyed no matter what. It's a bit hard to judge since jaybrundage is new but I just think he strikes me as a new guy with a very misguided attack on sandroba. A lot of new players think they've figured it out and that they're batman, that's what he uses to explain his late Mr. Wiggles vote too, a crazy plan that makes no sense. I think newbies like these and it fits on him, while I think that it's hard to overplay the newbie card as a newbie.
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Okay I just found out I have to go in a very short while.
Sucks for you jaybrundage.
##Unvote
##Vote jaybrundage
See you tonight.
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I just put the 4th vote on jaybrundage. You and jaybrundage are voting hiro protagonist while wherebugsgo, sandroba, Meapak_Ziphh and I are voting jaybrundage.
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Would be cool if Meapak_Ziphh would shed some more light on his flip flopping on wherebusgo during yesterday.
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Yea I actually like the Meapak_Ziphh lynch for tomorrow instead of wherebugsgo. I like how wherebugsgo handled the role block discussion and I don't like how Meapak_Ziphh did.
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Okay discard that, I'm tired and I'm watching MLG. I still like wherebugsgo better for lynch tomorrow than Meapak_Ziphh.
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Who do you want to lynch wherebugsgo?
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Okay I still want wherebusgo dead.
##Vote wherebugsgo
Does anybody disagree with this?
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@Meapak_Ziphh
You help me lynch wherebugsgo today, I'll help you lynch sandroba tomorrow. Deal?
Also, if there is a cop somewhere he kinda needs to claim today, but yea I agree with sandroba that that is very unlikely.
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5 hours without anything. Meapak_Ziphh how do you feel about my offer?
Man, if wherebugsgo doesn't flip scum then I seriously need to get my brain checked.
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HEY I VOTED
happy bday
Meapak_Ziphh, hiro protagonist, where the hell are you guys?
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Okay I never really intended to go through with that deal anyway. I'd rather lynch Meapak_Ziphh over hiro protagonist and sandroba, what do you guys think?
sandroba isn't scum or he wouldn't have shut down the hiro protagonist lynch that hard and with that little reason and then stuck with it, when Mr. Wiggles was looking suspicious and ended up getting lynched.
I would like to lynch wherebugsgo and then I'd like to lynch Meapak_Ziphh.
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hiro protagonist isn't very experienced and he's not among the best players either. Do you really think he would have voted 4th for Mr. Wiggles instead of just going for you and then Mr. Wiggles wouldn't have been lynched. You need to realize that wherebugsgo is scummy and he needs to die.
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Duh, of course wherebugsgo is going to look protown if you compare him to hiro protagonist. wherebugsgo has a very solid scum play and hiro protagonist does not have a very good town play. wherebugsgo is setting you up for an agreement where you lynch hiro protagonist, he is buddying with you to get hiro protagonist lynched and he's flip flopped on hiro protagonist all the way, he only wants him lynched because you want him dead. Then tomorrow he's gonna shoot either me or sandroba, doesn't matter and you two will lynch the remaining dude. He's always setting you up to lynch one of the guys who voted for Mr. Wiggles day one by saying that Palmar was right that scum would probably have bussed day1, but Palmar said 15 mins before deadline that everything he said during the night should be ignored. wherebugsgo claims that this only referred to Palmar's comments that jaybrundage was "cute" but that doesn't make any sense, why would Palmar come in 15 mins before deadline, on a night where he probably felt very threatened since he always gets shot night1, and then make his final words "the thing i said about jaybrundage, that he's cute, just ignore that."? Why would he say "the things i've said during the night" if he was only referring to one single thing, jaybrundage being cute? It makes no sense. wherebugsgo is scum you absolutely need to vote him today.
Also the night kills make perfect sense, scum felt very threatened after day1 and they needed to shoot Palmar or sandroba. That was a chance to take after they got behind day1 and when that worked out they're targeting less prominent townies because now they can play it more safe. Shooting Palmar was a nice, if a little risky move by wherebugsgo.
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EPT
