EPTI like smaller games like this.
Cosmic Horror Mafia
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
I like smaller games like this. | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
My initial thoughts: 1. Palmar probably isn't scum. The case against him is claiming that a joke response was a scum slip. 2. People pushing for lynching Palmar based on the above are dumb or scum. If they've got a good reason (haven't seen any so far) then it's not suspicious. 3. tnkted is probably scum 4. Ferryman, you've got a great case on wiggles, but with one problem. You designed that case to prove that he's the EA. What you should be doing is analyzing and then figuring out what he is. Because it was the cause and not the effect, I'm not yet convinced by it. I'll get something more detailed up tomorrow morning. | ||
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chaos13
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Was his accusation of Palmar warranted, and does the logic behind it make sense to you? | ||
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On August 23 2011 23:45 Hesmyrr wrote: The deadline ends at August 25 2011 23:45 KST And this. We've got another day still. | ||
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On August 24 2011 21:19 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I find it strange that Tnkted found more reason to vote for Palmar than Navillus, and in fact let Navillus' whole first post slide. Am I alone here? Not at all. However, I'm not always the best scumhunter, so I'd like to call on the analysis skills of Jackal58. Jackal, what do you think of tnkted's play so far in this game? I'm also going to vote tnkted, since I can always change it later if need be. ##Vote: tnkted | ||
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chaos13
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On August 25 2011 08:48 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While your looking into people that havn't said much: Is it just me, or does Chaos keep talking about going into more detail while never actually doing so? Yeah I know, this week is really busy. I'm hoping I have a little more time at home next week. I'll have a proper full-length analysis on tnkted up in an hour or less. | ||
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To begin with, we have him attacking an apparent scum slip by Palmar. Anyone with eyes can see that his slip was intended as a joke post, but apparently that's worth a vote. On August 24 2011 01:25 tnkted wrote: ...... okay. Nice crumb. ##unvote ...and a crumb is worth an unvote. On August 24 2011 01:25 tnkted wrote: Oh wait, the PMs are posted in the OP. NEVERMIND ##vote palmar And then a realization that it could have been a faked crumb is worth voting again. On August 24 2011 09:45 tnkted wrote: Ferryman, if you are new, then welcome to mafia! You have a bright future here, and if you're town mafia will probably want to hit you n1. In this case though, I think you might be right but lynching palmar is a better move here. Sir Jesse Wiggles ESQ (duke of yorkshire) is a notoriously difficult person to read at the best of times because he plays so close to the chest, and I've written my share of analysis on him and been wrong every time. That being said, your evidence makes a lot of sense, and if we don't have any other leads tomorrow I'd be totally happy gettin' wiggy wit' it. But right now, palmar is a better lynch because A) His response to the FOS has been very scummy B) The slip thing I mentioned earlier C) It's day 1 so if I'm wrong, it's not THAT big of a deal. Keep your eye on Wiggles and if you find anything else we'll act on it. For now though, Palmar is scummier than wiggles and I'd rather lynch him, Just some advice: the first post you posted felt to me like more of a pressure post (ie it wasn't very convincing) but the second one (the meta one) was much more convincing (wiggles rather comprehensive response notwithstanding). Here is where tnkted really begins to show his scumminess. The first paragraph can be ignored. Paragraph #2 contains a multitude of mafia traits. To begin with, he agrees with Ferryman's position, but still feels that Palmar is a better lynch. Why? Because Wiggles is tough to get a read on. This is a cautious wishy-washy stance. He allows an excuse for being wrong, and is stuck on tunnel-mode on Palmar, because that is a perfect cover for mafia to hide under. Paragraph 3\ABC Par. 3 supports the wishy-washy scum stance seen earlier. The ABC's display a terribly weak case against Palmar. He states that Palmar's response to being accused was very scummy, but fails to explain how. Even a general statement of how it was scummy would be better, but there is absolutely nothing here. Then back to the "slip", and finally closing with a careless attitude towards lynching town. We should never want to lynch town. Day 1 is just as or more important than any other day, because if we can lessen their numbers now, they have fewer kills on N1 and beyond. On August 24 2011 23:28 tnkted wrote: Okay, lets talk about Navillus and Palmar. This is the reason why some people were suspecting Narvillus: versus this: Which one of those seems scummier to you? To me, the second comment seems scummier by far. Now, I'd be willing to believe that it was a joke if it wasn't for Palmar's response: This is a very sullen, angry response. Rather than joke around with my pressure and OMGUS, like Narvillus's did: Narvillus wasn't worried about the pressure because he was having fun and joking around; he knew he was innocent and he knew that jackal thought he was innocent. Meanwhile, Palmar's FIRST INSTINCT upon being accused was to lash out. his FIRST INSTINCT is to accuse me of manufacturing evidence. Is that a reasonable response? I sure don't think it is. So that's my case for accusing palmar. You can find it convincing, or you can find it unconvincing, I'm not really concerned about it. Much of what I just outlined happened in my head unconciously and I'm sort of explaining my scumdar pings after the fact, if that makes any sense. So according to tnkted his vote on Palmar was a joke, and he didn't think it was actually a slip. He states that Palmar actually defending himself was scummy because a player like Navillus was relaxed and joked around, because the vote on him wasn't serious. Comparing these two gives a solid impression that tnkted's vote on Palmar was not intended to be serious, which means that only Palmar's reaction to it should have been used as evidence. As can be seen by the previous post I quoted, however, tnkted is still using it as proof that Palmar is mafia, still considering it a scum slip. That's a rather large hole in his argument I'd say. On August 25 2011 09:51 tnkted wrote: Ok, several things are happening right now that need to stop. 1. Wifom. Go google 'wine in front of me' if you don't understand what this is. The post I just quoted was distilled seven times from fruit of the wifom bush, and if you were to drink it you'd get so drunk on overthought you'd end up throwing up all over qatol and get yourself banned. 2. Talk about 'taking responsibility for the lynch'. No, that's stupid, thats not how days generally work. Whoever gets lynched d1 gets lynched because the best case was made against them. The people who pushed that lynch the hardest aren't 'responsible' anymore than the people that they convinced. The arguement was just convincing. That's it. If we lynch cyber_cheese, tomorrow I might be the one that's most to blame, but I'm no more responsible and it doesn't make me any scummier if he does flip green. There are thousands of townies that have pushed a wrong read and got somebody innocent lynched; the fact that they were SURE that their target is town doesn't make them scum, it just makes them wrong. That shit happens in mafia. 3. The same principle applies for things like 'x defended y and y flipped mafia so x must also be mafia'. This is erronious thinking; there's nothing stopping mafia from defending certain townies to gain town cred. Mafia doesn't care who gets lynched as long as its not one of them, and often times mafia will try to bus their own teammates to get town cred. Town credit is more important to mafia than almost anything else, because it's a coin that can be spent at lylo for a free win. 1. Nothing scummy about this content. Nothing town either. 2. In this section of his post, tnkted wants to remove responsibility from players for mislynches. That is a ridiculously scummy attitude. The people who pushed the lynch DO have to be responsible for it, otherwise mafia can get away with coming up with a case on a slightly scummy townie and get a mislynch every day, and according to you get away with it scot-free. If you're pushing for someone's lynch and they flip green, then you do get a bit scummier for it. If it happens consistently we really need to take a look at you and sort things out. 3. Wrong again. You want to take away the only tool we have for linking mafia to each other. When somebody flips red, or green for that matter, we look back at who they interacted with and how they interacted with them. You're pushing a seriously mafia agenda here. Responsibility is key in this game, because mafia without responsibility don't have to worry about anything. tnkted is mafia. | ||
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chaos13
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On August 25 2011 18:45 Jackal58 wrote: Didn't realize that until Ferryman pointed it out to me. I agree with Chaos13 on tnkted. ##VOTE: tnkted Jackal never agrees with me so willingly. | ||
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On August 25 2011 21:33 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Uh yea I see how it could come across that way in hindsight I don't think he's innocent, I'm just saying I think he made himself look guilty in the same manner I did, more or less And noones specifically come out to defend him either if i'm not mistaken I'm looking for parallels that reflect in my play to learn the differences between sc2 and forum mafia as I go Thing is, you're new to forum mafia. tnkted is rather good at forum mafia. None of his play so far reflects this. | ||
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chaos13
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I have to change my play or something, I'm suspected of being scum d1 virtually every game I play as town. [QUOTE]On August 25 2011 12:07 chaos13 wrote: tnkted [QUOTE]On August 24 2011 00:57 tnkted wrote: [QUOTE]On August 24 2011 00:55 Palmar wrote: [QUOTE]On August 24 2011 00:46 tnkted wrote: [QUOTE]On August 24 2011 00:29 Palmar wrote: I have discarded my win condition, my sole object this game will be to convince Jackal I'm town, seeing as it's a feat I've never achieved.[/QUOTE] Oh!? You have a win condition other than winning with town?[/QUOTE] derp. [/QUOTE] lololo #vote palmar[/QUOTE] To begin with, we have him attacking an apparent scum slip by Palmar. Anyone with eyes can see that his slip was intended as a joke post, but apparently that's worth a vote. This was a joke pressure anyway, to which palmar responded scummilly. [/QUOTE] This is pretty much where we can stop. It's joke pressure, meaning you really didn't think what Palmar said was serious, which means you really didn't think it was a genuine slip. But...you're still using it as evidence that Palmar is scum. | ||
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On August 26 2011 21:32 Forumite wrote: Okay, guys, if there are not a total of 7 votes on any one player in just under 2 hours, then there will be NO lynch. We have to lynch as a group, or we don´t lynch at all. If we don´t lynch then we loose a Townie, someone goes insane, we risk loosing the psychologist too, and we have 48 more hours of indecisive arguments, with the added bonus of WIFOM. If we mislynch, then at least we have SOMETHING to go on, we can look at votes and arguments, try to find connection between Scum. If we don´t lynch, then we have nothing, and basically restart the game with 8 Town, instead of 9. This. We already fucked up with Palmar moving his vote, and now we're having even more deflection away from tnkted. You know what that means? tnkt is scum and mafia want him to stay alive, and they want to make us waste our extended Day 1. | ||
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On August 27 2011 12:45 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I'm not sure that's a correct assessment Some roles might be incapable of it, but a role that dies the night it finds it's target? Outside of that we only really need the psych to heal the doc if he goes insane, and there's no way the mafia would let the doc live once he's revealed. Sure the psych helps in the fight against the EA, but he does it more effectively if we know where he's been I forgot about the bolded. That makes my previous statement a lot less logical. In that case ##Visit: Ferryman Why? His first posts were talking all about the EA, which is reminiscent of a blue role discussing who their role should target/how it should be used. I wasn't convinced of his case on Mr. Wiggles. It was a whole bunch of meta that, while useful in some situations, didn't actually hold up in this case. | ||
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chaos13
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On August 27 2011 21:28 Palmar wrote: are you intentionally not putting any effort into the game chaos13? Are you intentionally trying to screw over town by wasting extensions and lynches? Doing my best Palmar, but I am exhausted right now. I'll have more time for this game in a day or two. | ||
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JeeJee is seriously regretting that right now I bet. On August 28 2011 06:34 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I'm not entirely convinced on JeeJee.for two reasons 1) he could be trolling as town, out of boredom or something 2) if he's been using it as code, who were the recipients? surely theres some more examples, maybe even people replying? point 1) is weakened by his reply after it was spotted At this point, I think wiggles is clean: If I were the mafia, I'd choose someone intelligent, active, and that was trying to get an innocent lynched 1) I can't ever see town being stupid enough to intentionally put a mafia claim breadcrumb in their posts. 2) Code? Nah. He just got arrogant and thought he could get away with it. Of course, this could be set up for Jackal to gain a bunch of town cred. I wouldn't put it past JJ and Jackal. Especially Jackal. His scum play scares me after I watched him as mafia in a game I hosted. It scares me good. ##Vote JeeJee | ||
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chaos13
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On August 28 2011 10:43 Jackal58 wrote:I suck as scum  lol | ||
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On August 28 2011 20:17 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Well this is a really slow day, I'm sure we could be doing something productive instead of just being content with lynching JeeJee. Lets get some discussion going: At this point in time, who do you think is town, and why? I mentioned earlier that Palmar was the perfect example of this, and that's a part of why I think wiggles is town. Ferryman and Tnkted both pushed hard for a target to be lynched on day 1, Wiggles and Palmar respectively, harder than I believe a scum would on day 1, so I think they are town. People I want to hear more of: Sevryn, Eiii, Chaos You want us all to give you our town reads? What does that accomplish? It just gives scum better targets, because if 7 people think player A is town, and player A isn't on the mafia team, then who do you think they're gonna hit? Probably player A, and then we're short a trustworthy townie. I'll work on looking at JeeJee's posts and seeing if I can find similarities/connections to other players right now. Post what I find in a bit. | ||
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On August 25 2011 01:49 JeeJee wrote: NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario. If anyone needs more evidence that JeeJee is scum, here it is. He's discouraging mafia hunting and simultaneously puts on a show of mafia hunting. Since EA is a standalone third party role (doesn't know any other role/alignments, no other role alignments know EA) the only way that Cyber could be distancing himself from Ferryman is if they are mafia together. Just one sentence before he discourages people trying to find mafia, saying that apparently it's better to find the EA. And now a summary of his interactions with players. Quotes are in spoilers so this post is actually readable. Slight attack of sevryn for a pro-EA plan. + Show Spoiler + On August 24 2011 05:28 JeeJee wrote: i dont like this. this is only helpful if psych visits EA first, and we don't know if that happens. i.e. if psych claimed "im gonna visit A" and commits suicide because EA visited him, everyone would think that A is EA, wasting a lynch. plus obviously doc has to lie about his target so it doesn't help to narrow down EA in the case of insane doc kills, and this helps EA since he never visits anyone who claims to visit him (possible 2x insane in one night), plus EA will know that the person who claimed to visit him isn't a psych, narrowing down his search twice as fast. this is an awfully pro-EA plan -.^ Post #1- Attacking Cyber_Cheese for pushing a plan that has already been explained (by JeeJee) to be pro-EA. Pushes pretty hard against this guy but doesn't vote him. Post #2- Quizzing Cyber_Cheese a bit, but not attacking him anymore. Just requesting more information. Points out Errandor's inactive playstyle. Post #3- Pushes Cyber even harder, even to the point of voting for him. No new information came up between his earlier posts and this one. The only difference is that other players were starting to pick up steam on Cyber, voting for him and accusing him. This means it was safe for a mafia to hop on the bandwagon he started. + Show Spoiler + On August 25 2011 01:49 JeeJee wrote: wtf@this post i already pointed out why the plan of everyone claiming a target is extremely pro-EA and pro-scum and doesnt help the town AT ALL. the fact that you're still suggesting it is mindboggling. it's a particularly dangerous plan because it actually sounds good before you think about it. i wanted to go back and see if there's a case to be made against you, but tnkted already pointed out the bandwagon hopping. i wanna add this though which i think is more damning than hopping: NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario. On August 25 2011 06:54 JeeJee wrote: this raises a better question why do you keep bringing up this idea of coordinating a psych decision? *everyone votes for psych to visit A* *psych has committed suicide* "Ah, A must be EA!" *Lynch A* *A is not EA because EA visited psych and not vice versa* Now what? you're here quite often, you make a lot of posts. but all i'm seeing is that you want to kill someone, and you don't care who as long as it's not yourself. i'm seeing useless lists and pushing flawed plans. i'm seeing nonsense. ##vote:cyber cheese He attacks Cyber more in his next post or two, until Cyber reworks his plan. Remember that JeeJee's only explanation for voting Cyber was based on the scumminess of the earlier plans. Note the lack of an unvote here, and that he still tunnels Cyber, asking for more of his thoughts. + Show Spoiler + On August 26 2011 06:49 JeeJee wrote: on the caveat that you don't auto-lynch anyone if psych ends up suiciding, then it's workable to try and find out who is the EA. we could use the psych as an EA-cop. i'm in for this. but you've been posting a lot about plans and not a lot about people, so what do you think about sevryn and palmar's unvote? Next bit is not spoilered because these posts really need to be read. This is where things get really interesting. Previous to this he has ignored almost everything else that's going on to focus on Cyber. He completely ignored the Wiggles/Ferryman situation, the chaos/tnkted sitiuation, and Palmar's craziness. Something about this set him off, however. On August 26 2011 08:31 JeeJee wrote: not sure if serious.. all that post shows is sevryn going "I was going to make a case against CC but tnkted did it already" i did pretty much the same thing, am I related now too? Something about Jackal touching on the subject of sevryn/tnkted makes JeeJee feel the need to jump to their defense. sevryn's defense specifically. Note that he said "How is sevryn remotely related to tnkted?", not "How is tnkted related to sevryn?" My questions at this point 1) Why is it a bad thing for sevryn to be related to tnkted? 2) Why does JeeJee feel the need to defend sevryn from Jackal? Question 2 has a simple answer. Question 1 is a little more confusing. JeeJee has had some interactions with sevryn, but nothing telling. The only thing notable about them is that he's very sparing in interacting with people. It was just Cyber until Jackal came in with this, and one post exchanged with sevryn at the very beginning of the game. + Show Spoiler + On August 26 2011 09:45 JeeJee wrote: yeah no, this doesn't apply to this variation at all. ea cannot assume that the person we tell the psych to visit isn't the psych. this variation is workable, provided we don't auto-lynch anyone just because psych suicides. On August 26 2011 10:27 JeeJee wrote: who would you like psych to visit? same question @ eii This next one is more interacting with sevryn, and is also the post he claimed mafia in. It's content has been ignored so far because we've all been focused on the crumb. Take a second look at it. On August 27 2011 03:33 JeeJee wrote: indeed, this is an interesting point. making sure that the scenario where ea/psych visit one another is accounted for properly is all we've focused on, but the most likely thing to happen is that neither will visit another. someone's basically not-EA if that happens checking palmar is the best idea i think. under the assumption that psych decides to follow the plan (i dont see why he wouldnt), i'd be hella more comfortable knowing palmar's not the EA. my other suggestion is wiggles. ugh, you read my mind. my god, where did the 'horror' come from. and like everyone's saying it too. damn shit annoys me :< ##visit palmar What stands out to you? Who died last night? Here he throws out some information and suspicions that he hasn't come close to mentioning before. Apparently Palmar is the EA, for reasons he fails to explain, and Wiggles his second option, again with a failure to explain. But if they killed him last night, why would he want the psych to check Palmar? The options I can see are 1) Mafia want to take out the EA so they aren't targeted, and gain town cred. JeeJee/scum team thinks Palmar is EA. 2) Mafia want town to derp and keep EA alive, JeeJee/scum team thinks Palmar is not EA. Maybe someone with a more devious mind can work this one out. Maybe it's just wifom. I've pointed it out and can't quite figure it out. It's after this that Jackal points out the crumb and JeeJee goes into "Oh shit that was stupid" mode. I would like to go back to the two questions I had about sevryn, tnkted, and JeeJee. For reference those were 1) Why is it a bad thing for sevryn to be related to tnkted? 2) Why does JeeJee feel the need to defend sevryn from Jackal? The simple answer to question 2 is - *drumroll* sevryn is JeeJee's scumbuddy. So back to 1) Why is it a bad thing for sevryn to be related to tnkted? Well we have to remember, tnkt was getting a lot of suspicion yesterday, and a lot of votes. It seemed likely that he would be lynched. The only sort of lynch it would be bad to be connected to is a red one. A mafia will never want to be connected to another mafia lynch, except to push it as hard as they can. My guess at mafia team right now. JeeJee sevryn tnkted Of these three, my thoughts have changed since yesterday and I am least sure of tnkted. I also have to examine sevryn's posts more thoroughly, but there is a clear connection between him and JeeJee. | ||
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On August 28 2011 23:03 tnkted wrote: Sigh. Why does nobody read? My FOS on palmar started as a joke from his initial comment in the thread, but his RESPONSE to the pressure I applied is what made me think he was scum. Go reread the thread, bro. So if it was only the response, why were you still using his "slip" as evidence? You clearly stated that one of the things that made you suspicious of him was his slip. The proof is in your posts and your refusal to address this point doesn't give me a good feeling about you. | ||
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On August 28 2011 23:15 tnkted wrote: Do you think if you keep asserting that I'm using the slip as evidence it becomes true? This isn't the first time that you've said that, and I pointed out then too that it wasn't true. This was the last time I said that the slip was evidence, and it was virtually my first post of any substance in the thread. The VERY NEXT POST by me is where I explain the 'response' theory. I don't care when you said it, I care that you said it at all. If you didn't think it was a genuine slip, why did you ever use it as evidence? In your VERY NEXT POST you also don't state that the slip is not valid evidence. You simply omit it from that post. | ||
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On August 28 2011 23:27 tnkted wrote: BTW this is a stupid conversation and isn't finding us scum, we should change the topic And just for the record, you aren't too high up on my lynch list. As for some discussion, what do you think the chances are of Jackal being the EA and why? | ||
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On August 29 2011 01:20 Sevryn wrote: The F? Didn't you just make a giant post saying that tnkted is one of the scum? and then you say he isnt high up on your lynch list? what an excellent contradiction you have made there sir JeeJee, sevryn, and Jackal are all higher. My lynch order of choice would be JeeJee, Jackal, sevryn, tnkted. Why Jackal? Can anyone tell me which role in the game would want to spend 3 hours looking for breadcrumbs? | ||
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On August 29 2011 13:06 tnkted wrote: I don't think it makes sense for jackal to bus his teamate this early... Unless you're suggesting he's EA, which I suppose is possible. I think jeejee > sevryn is our best bet right now. Yes, Jackal is EA. I'm sure of it. | ||
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On August 29 2011 21:33 Jackal58 wrote: Really? And what brings you to that conclusion? My belief that scum are more dangerous to us than the EA at this stage of the game? I suggest you look at the two people with the least amount of posts in this game. One of them is the EA. No, it's that you spent 3 hours looking for breadcrumbs. I know you've given an explanation already, but I'm not buying it. I can see taking 3 hours looking back through the thread and trying to analyze while you wait for him to call, but why were you looking for breadcrumbs? Let's go through each role and see what motivation they would have for that. Townie - No logical reason. Maybe they're looking for psych/doctor, but what will they do with that information? They have no way to figure out if it is a lie or not, since anyone can breadcrumb anything when the role PM's are in the OP. Doctor - Looking for psych so they can protect them. Unfortunately, this possibility is ruled out since Palmar already flipped doc. Psychologist - Same as Townie. EA sure as hell isn't going to breadcrumb their role, and players don't know if they're sane or not so they can't crumb whether or not they've been visited. No point in it. Mafia - Looking for doc or (maybe) psychologist to take them out early on. EA - After there had been a plan or two pushed for that included the psychologist breadcrumbing their role, this makes perfect sense. Maybe the psych is an inexperienced player who did it before understanding how the plan was detrimental, or maybe they're an experienced player who did the same. EA wants to remove the only barrier to their win condition as soon as possible. Visit the psych, and you've reduced the number of sane players by 1 and also prevented future obstacles. The psych is the only one likely to have breadcrumbed (except mafia :p ) and now that the doc is dead the EA is the only one likely to be looking for it. So the only two roles that it actually seems reasonable to spend so much time searching for crumbs are anti-town. Even in games as mafia when I was searching for crumbs to find blue roles I never spent that much time, and in this setup there are no hugely anti-mafia power roles. As far as mafia is concerned, the psych helps them if they are visited by EA. This is the only logical conclusion. Jackal found JeeJee's post, and figured he could gain some town cred by pointing it out. | ||
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On August 30 2011 02:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Psychologist visit Jackal. If Jackal is the Psychologist, visit Chaos13. I would suggest the Psychologist don't visit Jackal, precisely because he is the EA. I'm going to vote Jackal tomorrow and be pushing for his lynch, so what is the point in causing our psych to kill himself by visiting Jackal? | ||
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Explain to me how our psych visiting him is good. It doesn't kill the EA, it doesn't remove him from the game, it doesn't take away his power, and we have no way of knowing for sure if the psych actually visited who everyone voted for. It gets us a dead townie. Instead, they should visit who they think was most likely targeted last night. | ||
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I'm town Mr. Ferryman. | ||
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On August 31 2011 00:02 Forumite wrote: This is why we post analysis at the end of the night, to avoid becoming a target for the Scum, and creating WIFOM. Disregarding the nightkill for a while, I think Chaos13 is scummy for his craplogical push on Jackal, reasoning in my analysis post above. Explain to me what about my argument for him being EA is wrong or illogical, and give me a better idea of who it could be. I'm always open to discussion. With that in mind, you guys think I'm scummy. So pressure me. I'll answer to the best of my ability and if you still feel I'm anti-town after that, then I can relax knowing that at least I provided a bunch of information before being lynched and that I played the game as well as I can. | ||
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On August 31 2011 01:33 Jackal58 wrote: If I were EA Chaos The Ferryman would not have been sane. I considered him to be high on the list of probable Psychs. Were I EA he would have been my night one visit. If I were scum Chaos you would be dead today and not the Ferryman. So unless you are either A) The EA or B) Scum please kindly start looking for realsies instead of insisting I am something I'm not. Of course if you are either scum or EA please continue to tunnel me. This is total wifom here. It would be so easy for you to say this from an EA or mafia perspective, so it doesn't go any length to convincing me you're town. With that said, I seem to be the only one suspicious of you, so pursuing you will do no good for today. On August 31 2011 01:38 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Vote Chaos13 You're doing an excellent job of voting for me with no explanation and completely ignoring my request to pressure me if you think I'm suspicious. If you want to vote for me, don't leave the information where it's at. Ask me questions and see if my responses are still scummy. Point out the mafia/EA objectives I have been pushing this game. If at the end of the day I'm still your #1 suspect, so be it. Don't do a one-liner vote. On August 31 2011 03:19 tnkted wrote: I'm not sold on a chaos lynch yet... he seems more like, dumb than someone posting scum objectives. Jackal clearly isn't EA or we'd have lost our psychologist. Did we all abandon the wiggles lynch? Thanks :p I'm doing my best here. I'd like to find out from everyone why they think Jackal isn't the EA, because from my perspective he is the most likely candidate for it right now. Maybe some outside opinions will help me figure things out. | ||
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I saw that. I also saw zero explanation of why you think I'm anti-town. | ||
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On August 31 2011 03:59 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Chaos, do you have any other analysis/reasoning to believe that Jackal is the EA besides that he found the breadcrumb? Can you relate his thread behaviour and posting in general to how he is the EA? I'm wondering if you actually have anything stronger than just that he found the breadcrumb. Also, try to write it from an objective stand-point, and not one where you begin with the thought that he's already the EA. Number of insane players: 1-3/10 Yes, I'll actually write a proper analysis later this afternoon that covers everything. I have to head out the door in a minute or two, so I don't have time to do it right now. # of insane players could actually be 0, if psych and EA visited the same person each night. EA's action goes through first, meaning the player is already insane once the pysch visits them, so they're cured of their insanity the same night it happens. | ||
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On August 31 2011 08:21 Jackal58 wrote: I have no idea if the Psych visited me or not. It wouldn't matter if he did unless I'm insane. I am not the EA. I cannot visit anybody at night. I cannot harm the Psych if he does visit me. I wish people would quit assuming that the Psych visited me. We have no idea if he did. We certainly don't want him claiming until the EA is dead. So please stop assuming I was visited. That kind of thinking is going to get us in a pickle. I support this post of Jackal's. We can vote on who the psych should visit all we want, but we have no way of knowing if they did or not. If I were psych, I would probably be picking my own target, since voting gives EA too much information, and I would rather visit someone insane than the EA. It's much better in the long run to have the pysch alive and lynch the EA based on analysis alone. On August 31 2011 07:03 Forumite wrote: I like it how Erandorr come when you make a FoS on him =) Chaos13, you haven´t seen/answered the FoS I sent on you, it went out just before the new day, and regards the same thing Cyber pointed out. Basically, it´s that you didn´t want to send the Psych on Jackal, who you think is the EA. You argued that it´s a waste to send the Psych to die, it might look that way, but it´s craplogic. If we get the EA because the Psych die finding him, then we can be much more sure on the lynch. Also, if we send the Psych and he doesn´t die, then we can be more or less sure that Jackal is not the EA. That´s the thing that looked bad, it looked like you wanted to make sure that Jackal was not cleared of EA-suspicion, so that you could lynch him today. Anyway, I´m looking forward to that analysis on Jackal. I want to hear what made you so sure about Jackal that you thought a Psych verification was unnecessary. I've pretty much addressed this above. If I think Jackal is the EA, why should I want the psych to go visit him and get killed? That defeats the point of the skipped night phase. I would much rather the psych visit someone insane and cure them, and keep the EA farther from their win condition than have the pysch go get themselves killed when we can't actually confirm that they visited the target everyone voted on. Analysis on Jackal in progress. Will be up in an hour or two probably. | ||
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 General consensus seems to be that I'm wasting time. So be it. Jackal is no longer a suspect. I'll start looking elsewhere. | ||
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Let me preface this by saying I am no longer at all sure that Jackal is EA. There's evidence for it, but when the whole town starts questioning you there comes a point where you begin to wonder if you're sniffing down the wrong trail. So here we go. What needs to be determined first is what the goals of the EA will actually be. This is simple. 1) Visit the psychologist 2) Do some serious mafia hunting. You want town cred and you're not afraid of getting hit for being correct. A lot of Jackal's posts are solid. He's really good at not giving anything away without making it obvious. I'll just go with the posts that stand out to me. On August 25 2011 08:10 Jackal58 wrote: My apologies for my absence. It was a brutal day at work today. The fuckers broke everything. I have only read this page and will get caught up shortly but I do have a question for the Ferryman. You state rightly so that we are here to lynch scum. Yet you are obsessed with the EH. Why? I understand he's 3rd party. I understand he's anti town. I also understand that he won't kill anybody barring a chance encounter with the psych. Scum are most certainly going to begin killing us. Fuck the EH for now. We have bigger fish to fry. Of course I might be all wrong as I have just read this page atm and if so I'll be more than happy to stfu after I get caught up. I'll post my thoughts in a bit. I also have to catch up on XLIX. While this is a reasonable post, it has some strange motivations behind it. He would really like Ferryman to quit searching so hard for the EA, because apparently scum are more important. Let's see how that would work out. 3 scum, takes us 3 days to lynch. 3 kills by that point, 3 lynches, and possibility of psych dying due to EA. That brings us down to 2 insane townies 3 sane townies 1 EA Assuming we lynched mafia every day from day 1, this is a worst case scenario, with the EA visiting the psych and two townies who survived. This doesn't look too good to me. Whereas if we lynch the EA, we skip a night phase and get 2 lynches in a row...looks good to me. Jackal isn't one to miss something like this. EA and mafia are equal priority, and his wanting to take out mafia over EA doesn't look too good. On August 25 2011 08:46 Jackal58 wrote: If anybody ever accuses me of tunneling again I'm going to bitch slap them. Ferryman we get it. You think Wiggles is the EH. You may very well be right. Guess what? Right now I don't care about the EH. But you sure as hell do. You are either the psych or scum. I know you have a very good grasp on how this game works. You are also on the opposite end of the brilliance spectrum from Cyber_cheese. Put your efforts into something other than tunneling your EH suspect. Please. I'm filtering all of you from most to least interesting so I'm going to be a while. Again, he's pushing Ferryman away from hunting the EA. Something I would really like to point out is this On August 25 2011 08:46 Jackal58 wrote: You are either the psych or scum. No possibility of him being the EA. What better cover would there be for an EA than hunting for their own role? Not for a moment does Jackal consider this possibility. In games I've played previously I've been about to hit submit and then realized I made a slip like this. I consider this to be a slip revealing that he's the EA. On August 28 2011 20:58 Jackal58 wrote: I spent almost 3 hours looking at every post in this game for breadcrumbs. I wasn't looking at anything of Jee Jee's in particular. I saw the U Mad first. And then found the rest. I found one other post that may contain a breadcrumb but I'm not positive it is. At any rate I am not going to share that post, or user, or what he may be claiming. Y'all can go find it yourselves. I've already gone over this stuff, but I'll mention it briefly again. 3 hours looking for breadcrumbs? Jackal's hunting the psych, which you'll remember is priority #1 of the EA. On August 31 2011 01:33 Jackal58 wrote: If I were EA Chaos The Ferryman would not have been sane. I considered him to be high on the list of probable Psychs. Were I EA he would have been my night one visit. If I were scum Chaos you would be dead today and not the Ferryman. So unless you are either A) The EA or B) Scum please kindly start looking for realsies instead of insisting I am something I'm not. Of course if you are either scum or EA please continue to tunnel me. And then this. Sorry for wasting so much time yesterday. Let the discussion begin. | ||
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On August 31 2011 09:54 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Wait, what? So, you think Jackal is scum, most likely EA, but because other people don't agree (before you've even posted an actual analysis), you just drop it? The point of analysis is to convince people to agree with you, and show them your reasoning for your reads. Even if you made an analysis, and came to the conclusion that Jackal is actually town, that's still useful for town. Dropping your suspicion so easily because people don't initially agree with your read, and without even trying to convince them, just makes it seem like you thought your case was weak to begin with, meaning you were just looking to start a bandwagon on someone. ##Vote: Chaos13 I was frustrated yesterday. I've since gotten over it. If you really want to vote for me, tell me what mafia objectives I have been pushing this game. What does a mafioso have to gain by making such an outspoken accusation against Jackal, then backing off, and then continuing again? You can see from my games as scum that I like to lurk and lay low. Real analysis won't come from me for a few days, and then it will only be a result of becoming a major town suspect for not contributing. Show me how all my posts represent a mafia agenda. Pressure me today. Ask me questions and decide if my responses are still scummy. Address my analysis on Jackal and see what you think of it. Cyber_Cheese, where are you? You voted for me and left. Not very town-like. | ||
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On August 31 2011 23:25 Jackal58 wrote: On the Ferryman I simply wanted him to stop tunneling. At the point I made that first post you quoted we were all well aware of what he thought of Wiggles and adding more of the same just gave us all another 20 paragraphs on "NO U" to read. That's it. No ulterior motivation. And yes he came across to me as either Psych or scum. Not the EA. And if I truly was the EA Ferryman would not have been sane when scum hit him. I would have visited him. The EA isn't posting in this game. It's either Eiii or Erandorr. One is scum the other is 3rd party. And I really was killing time when I went through all the posts in this game looking for breadcrumbs. No ulterior motive there either. And wtf does "Sevryn was prodded" mean? Yeah I'm not gonna be voting for you today. Too much assumption on my part for it to be a proper vote. I'm guessing it means he was PM'ed to post so he doesn't get modkilled for inactivity. Speaking of sevryn, I don't know that he's a good lynch today. The only thing he's got going for him as mafia is JeeJee talking with him a lot, but that doesn't mean he's scum. I'll go ahead and filter/analyze him this morning before I head to work and see what I can find. Jackal if you're so sure of Eiii and Erandorr start putting some evidence behind your accusations. Are you still suspicious of tnkted? | ||
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These are the only two posts of his that I feel can be analyzed to any degree. On August 24 2011 08:17 Sevryn wrote: This is a strong case for wiggles being the horror. I think that we should focus on the mafia first and the horror second. because our win condition is all threats to the town are eliminated while the scum is just to be equal to the town aligned players which means we are essentially 9v3. mafia has one kp so assuming worst case scenario we lose 2 per day/night cycle so 7v3 second day 5v3 third day. If we reach the case of 5v3 i propose we make it go to a no lynch so that after the mafia kill someone it will be 4v3 instead of instead of a 5v3. I think we should do these in all cases such as 4v2 make it a 3v2 and 1 v 3 make it a 1v2. If we find a good mafia target for a day one lynch i will vote for the mafia because if it gets to where we would abstain for voting for a more town favored lylo we can lynch the horror instead or just save the horror for a day we don't have a good mafia suspect(that could be today but it is still too soon to tell) ##vote Mr. Wiggles I will change my vote if we find a good mafia to lynch Reading this over first I went WTF SCUM. Then I thought about it. Everything sevryn says here is based in thought that benefits town. His proposal of a no-lynch near the end game actually benefits us, because it gives us a much higher chance of actually hitting scum, and gives us the final play rather than mafia. This is probably the only scenario in which I would feel a no-lynch is pro-town, and sevryn gets green cred from me for suggesting it. He also explains why he feels mafia are a better first target than EA. (Now I understand your thought process Jackal) On August 29 2011 00:28 Sevryn wrote: i Just woke up and have not read the last page of the thread if you look over the thread you will notice that everything that "links" me to jeejee and tnkted. are all posts made by someone else. moreover the subtle disconnects attack on me was an incredibly weak attack. the fact that I didn't defend myself or try to distance myself from tnkted all shows something IMO. of course tnkted did almost get lynched first day which is why you think he is scum besides the fact that palmar died night one. which is weird when you consider he was pretty sure that tnkted was townie. when we lynched jeejee if he flips red if there is no better case we could lynch tnkted but your case against me seems to be long and well thought out but it relies on both tnkted and jeejee being scum. This post is also true. My entire attack on him was based on things that JeeJee said, not things that sevryn said. I believe he also states a suspicion of tnkted, but that could just be a misunderstanding on my part. Summary sevryn has pro-town interests and is not mafia. Slight chance of EA, but not likely. | ||
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 My top two candidates right now are tnkted and Mr. Wiggles. The majority of players are going for Wiggles, so in the interest of not having an extension/no-lynch, I will vote for him as well. Although I would prefer to see tnkted lynched today, that is not feasible at the moment. tnkted should be lynched tomorrow for sure. ##Vote Mr. Wiggles | ||
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Good luck you guys | ||
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On September 08 2011 09:19 Jackal58 wrote: I blew your fucking head off. Unfortunately you didn't have a head and it blew Chaos13's head off. I knew there was something off about you finding that breadcrumb. Sorry for my shitty play the first two days here, I hope I improved it some after that. I was busy and my mind was occupied with things other than mafia, but I got it sorted out and had more time to devote to the game. Kudos to Ferryman for his scumhunting abilities. | ||
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On September 08 2011 10:22 Jackal58 wrote: Forumite - Why didn't you out me? You knew I was scum. I can see exactly why he didn't. What happens when a faction is eliminated? Skip a night phase. What does that mean? Another lynch. How many anti-town targets are they looking for now? One. Does finding scum as third party or third party as scum gain you an ounce of town cred? No. It was in the best interests of both of you to work with the other, especially considering that one could get pissed off if they end up being lynched and start really attacking the other, and then when EA flips town goes "Oh look he knew who scum was" or when scum flips "Oh look he must have hit the EA and knew who he was." Which, of course, is exactly what happened. | ||
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