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Resurrection Mafia - Page 28

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sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
September 04 2011 13:24 GMT
#541
Oh and my previous point proves that both varpulis and sinani are inocents, yet more reason to believe redFF's claim.
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
September 04 2011 13:27 GMT
#542
On September 04 2011 13:27 jcarlsoniv wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 04 2011 12:12 bumatlarge wrote:
I think I've got this game figured out, I've read into the thread alot and it's a bit of a puzzle with some missing pieces, but the main elements are there.

Sinani, redff and Sandroba are scum
-redff or sandroba has a role that let's them know a coroner died or that there are none left alive
-in exchange, there is no roleblocker in the game.
-this alone let's mafia safely fakeclaim, and accuse someone heavily based on one of the members being blocked.

I do not believe that they intended to do this right after seeing the day 1 results, but seeing sinani lynched instead of me, I think they realized that a pious man had voted on sinani and screwed them over. Sandroba claimed a roleblock to keep me as the lynch for this day, and redff claimed coroner's apprentice to try to persuade the HP to bring back sinani, rather then just zombifying him. HP, DO NOT BRING BACK SINANI. Bring back any other person from that day, preferably a mafia kill. I can back up all this based on these three players behavior.

3 kills went out last night, and as far as I can tell, we don't have non-day vigis. That kills were all low activity posters, and I am fairly certain they were all town.

Jackal
He put his vote on chaos13 and afk'd apparently, I'm not sure about chaos, but he has reasoning similar to my own, so I don't think this is a heavy link but we'll keep chaos' name in case it pops up.

Sknowman
Again, very lurkerish, but he put his vote on jcarl, for a single post, then kept it there, even at the end. Just like chaos, I'll keep his name in mind.

Drazerk
Voted sinani.

Why kill these people? I'll tell you, they have little influence upon being resurrected. The deapool to pick from here is extremely limited if you go on just there play in this game. Mafia wants to limit the good choices and leave the priest picking at scraps while the living players are more active and therefore uncheckable. But oh look, to ease the HP's troubled mind, redff comes soaring in and claims he checked TWO people (I have absolutely zero fucking idea why), and you should bring back sinani of the two. I believed him, because the claim was outrageous, a coroner could counterclaim him, and I thought he was inferring that sinani was a blue role of some sort.

But Bum, you are probably scum because sandroba said he was RB'd which means you're scum! Which transistions nicely into our next segment...




Sandroba
I didn't really have too many qualms about this dude, until just before the first day ended, he seemed to be hell bent on finding scum and I was content to take his criticisms on how I start my days with a cup of folgers, and how he would rather prance around when I had few reads aside from varpulis and kenpachi. Until this post.

On September 03 2011 06:47 sandroba wrote:
Let's not lynch sinani, he is scummy despite alignment and I don't see anything that jumps scum in his posts so far. Let's lynch Bum and ON gogogo consolidate fast.


Wow. Late into the day he wants to have a switch from a scummy person onto me with an absurd reason.

Needless to say that struck a wrong chord. I told him what the fuck and voted varpulis, my own effort in consolidating votes, because like hell was I going to get lynched instead of varpulis.

On September 03 2011 07:01 sandroba wrote:
On September 03 2011 06:54 bumatlarge wrote:
what the fuck sandroba?

##Unvote
##Vote Varpulis


What the fuck is what I say to you. Why are you voting varpulis? Are you even trying to find scum in this thread or do you only care about not being lynched?
RedFF your meta argument is shit and too shallow. Explain to me how varpulis is scum in a coherent way and stop spamming he is scum in every single post you make.


Sandroba has never voted redff, despite him GUNNING for me when redff have had very similar actions. Sandroba is defending everything redff does, yet even when he sees errors, he ignores them. Sandroba has never considered redff to be scum this entire game.

On September 03 2011 07:53 sandroba wrote:
The very good analysis you are refering to is basically redFF saying one of the first posts on the thread is non contributory and appearing to be pro-town. He pointed out that he did so as scum in a previous game, in which he got lynched day 1 for it. If you are judging only meta from his very first post, do you really think he would do the same shit again? Or do you think it's more likely that despite the risk of getting lynched he was legimately concerned about spamming/lurking/trolling going on in the recent tl games?

On September 03 2011 22:56 sandroba wrote:
redFF you are most likely town because now that I think about it there is no way you could know that the coroner is dead and you would risk being insta counter claimed by the real coroner and thus get lynched if you were mafia. That being said please don't make the same mistake again spamming the thread and getting a townie killed. Read wbg defense. Unless he is the master of deceit, he is very unlikely to be mafia. Please put your vote somewhere more productive.


That and calling the sinani lynch bad, it makes it pretty clear that sandroba knows something in this game that the rest of us don't. He has persisted in calling any speculation I gave about the set-up anti-town, because he doesn't want us to talk about it. Please don't sheep behind this guy.

On September 03 2011 07:58 sandroba wrote:
On September 03 2011 07:38 jcarlsoniv wrote:
On September 03 2011 07:23 sandroba wrote:
Ace/jackal/ON/chaos/jacarl can you please switch vote to someone more meaningful? If things stay like they are as of now mafia pretty much gets to choose who they lynch.

@Ace after all that talk about how bad it is for people to get lynched with 3 votes, won't you do anything to stop that from happening? like pushing your candidate or voting on one of the leading ones?


Why is that? You sound like you have information that the rest of us don't have. Maybe the scum list, perhaps...

I'm going out to dinner. I'm not changing my vote. I'm getting scummy reads off of sinani, and my vote is staying there. I'll be reading and keeping up on my phone.

Are you really this blind? If a roleblocker blocks one of the voters and the votes are this close they pretty much get to choose who doesn't get lynched.


Oh what? The now the roleblocker comes into play here! It's funny that Jcarl brings up the "more information" tidbit, and you immediately hint that you do indeed have more information. Right here you are GUARANTEEING that scum has a roleblocker, without assessing that perhaps whoever does get saved from a vote will have alot of suspicion thrown upon them? Funny how that doesn't get mentioned when you are trying to push the lynch, but after it's 100% evidence.


On September 03 2011 09:53 sandroba wrote:
Ace do you think it's possible there is more than 3 mafia? or that mafia has more than 1 extra kp, assuming the 3rd came from them? From a balance stand point we are likely facing 3 mafia, so that means we 100% missed both lynches since the kp did not get reduced. There is no point checking into the lynches, since they are most likely town either way, so maybe check into the nks?

I have a pretty good explanation why mafia used the minion shot so early. Bum is the minion. Despite roleblocking me they couldn't be 100% he would've survived because of pious shenanigans. So they decided not to risk losing kp and used it day1. There you go.


Case in point. Sinani was the minion most likely. Perhaps they don't even have a necromancer either? Also, sandroba confirms we have a pious who voted sinani.




I still find it hard to believe that everything redff has done is intentional. Claiming the apprentice is one thing but then saying he gets two checks seems EXTREMELY odd. I don't understand why he didn't just say sandroba was town, or even that varpulis was scum. His posts don't give me much so until someone else finds anything, I'll keep him secondary to sandroba in my list. Sinani was very self explanatory, and redff did not keep his vote on him when it mattered. redFF needs to be gotten rid of tonight. I highly doubt town will be able to not lynch me, because of what sandroba said, but I'm confident that we can win when two scum are dead. Once we get rid of sandroba, I can guarentee the game will be over.

##Unvote
##Vote redff


The only downside to your story is that if sinani was scum, the mafia kp would have been reduced before the night kills went out, so only 2 should have died at night...


LOL that is definitely not the only downside to his story. Read that post properly and it seems like the whole "analysis" is fabricated.

Just read it from a town and mafia perspective. Do you not see what he is trying to accomplish?

If bum dies, he can get necroed by the mafia team. Since the mafia team always has at least one necro, we can kill bum today but we'll have to kill Ace/ON tomorrow and then kill bum again the next day, and then lynch whichever one of ON/Ace he decides to revive that last day.

If we kill both bum and ON today we only have to worry about lynching one of them tomorrow (Ace). That other lynch can go to whoever else we find scummy tomorrow to cover our bases, in case there are 4 mafia or somehow one of these guys miraculously is not mafia.
Varpulis
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States2517 Posts
September 04 2011 13:28 GMT
#543
On September 04 2011 22:17 wherebugsgo wrote:
joncarl whatever the hell his name is.

joncarlsoniv. I memorized the name at the beginning, because i care.

(I'm still dead, don't worry)
For he is the Oystermeister, lord of all the oysters.
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
September 04 2011 13:29 GMT
#544
On September 04 2011 22:23 sandroba wrote:
JC is not new btw, he is way more experienced than I am.


Oh well he gives off massive airs of noobiness.
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
September 04 2011 13:36 GMT
#545
On September 04 2011 15:48 iGrok wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 04 2011 13:41 wherebugsgo wrote:
Good god why are we wasting more time speculating about this shit?

If we lynch mafia during the day, for example from 3 mafia to 2 mafia, does it reduce their KP that same day? e.g. would we see 1 mafia kill instead of 2?

Yes.
Order is Blocking Effects, Lynches, Killing effects, Other effects.


This point is the strongest in establishing that the current mafia count is 3/4.

In fact, I think it suggests there are only 3 mafia. Let's not assume that, but 1 minion/1RB/1 necro is a good balance for mafia.

Knowing this, if we kill bum/ON today and Ace tomorrow, we can actually keep mafia KP at only one for a pretty decent amount of time.

sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
September 04 2011 13:51 GMT
#546
On September 04 2011 22:36 wherebugsgo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 04 2011 15:48 iGrok wrote:
On September 04 2011 13:41 wherebugsgo wrote:
Good god why are we wasting more time speculating about this shit?

If we lynch mafia during the day, for example from 3 mafia to 2 mafia, does it reduce their KP that same day? e.g. would we see 1 mafia kill instead of 2?

Yes.
Order is Blocking Effects, Lynches, Killing effects, Other effects.


This point is the strongest in establishing that the current mafia count is 3/4.

In fact, I think it suggests there are only 3 mafia. Let's not assume that, but 1 minion/1RB/1 necro is a good balance for mafia.

Knowing this, if we kill bum/ON today and Ace tomorrow, we can actually keep mafia KP at only one for a pretty decent amount of time.


Read my previous post on the setup. We can safely assume 3 mafia.
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
September 04 2011 14:41 GMT
#547
On September 03 2011 09:53 sandroba wrote:
Ace do you think it's possible there is more than 3 mafia? or that mafia has more than 1 extra kp, assuming the 3rd came from them? From a balance stand point we are likely facing 3 mafia, so that means we 100% missed both lynches since the kp did not get reduced. There is no point checking into the lynches, since they are most likely town either way, so maybe check into the nks?

I have a pretty good explanation why mafia used the minion shot so early. Bum is the minion. Despite roleblocking me they couldn't be 100% he would've survived because of pious shenanigans. So they decided not to risk losing kp and used it day1. There you go.


This one, sandroba?

Also town needs to concentrate votes on ON/bum. I'll keep saying it till you guys do it. Filter myself and sandroba if you need arguments for voting ON/bum, filter Ace, ON, and bum to see why they are scummy.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
September 04 2011 14:50 GMT
#548
On September 04 2011 22:20 sandroba wrote:
Another point is that if we had a cc we could simply lynch both and get 1 mafia lynched 100% of the time, which is a good deal.

Now let's look at this setup. The whole point is ressurection and no flips. Both necro and priest can only perform their actions and be relevant by day3. It makes a lot of fucking sense to make sure the game goes for that long, thus mafia number is almost certainly 3 because we could be at lylo right now if it was anything more. Another point is that it's possible and likely to have the necro/coroner/priest dead by that point. What's the solution if we want to preserve the theme of the setup? You make the necro a pass over role like it's pointed in the OP. You make back-up roles for coroner and priest so they have a chance to act. That's what makes sense. No insult to redFF, but I don't think he has done this kind of analysis before hand and thus concluded this is a plausible claim as mafia and then risked the coroner being alive before claiming. NO. He did not. He is indeed the back-up coroner and if you lynch him you are dumb or scum.


This.
redFF
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States3910 Posts
September 04 2011 15:09 GMT
#549
yeah sand came to the conclusion i did 3 pages ago =D

also wherebugsgo i'm fairly certain this is only your second game so you can't exactly go round calling me newbie, but jimmycarson has to take his vote off me or fear the derp.
redFF
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States3910 Posts
September 04 2011 15:10 GMT
#550
ebwop

On September 05 2011 00:09 redFF wrote:
yeah sand came to the conclusion i did 3 pages ago =D

also wherebugsgo i'm fairly certain this is only your second game so you can't exactly go round calling jimmycarson newbie, but jimmycarson has to take his vote off me or fear the derp.

wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
September 04 2011 15:17 GMT
#551
Idc if someone's playing like a noob I'll call them out.

Ace.
redFF
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States3910 Posts
September 04 2011 15:29 GMT
#552
no ace isn't playing like a noob hes playing like a mafia.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
September 04 2011 15:33 GMT
#553
Since you guys are being dumb and mafia can easily stack on redFF and get him lynched anyway, just consider this for a moment. Maybe redFF is not telling the whole truth in his claim to maybe live another day. Maybe he checked only varp and gets informed when the real coroner gets killed, so he knows both. And maybe he still can check one person per day like the original coroner. Or maybe it works exactly how redFF says. Either way he is not mafia.
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
September 04 2011 15:35 GMT
#554
A noob mafia :D

Neener neener ace whatcha gonna do when we come for youuuu

BTW where is Palmar? Palmar when you read this I want your opinions on ON/bum/Ace. I know you think chaos is mafia but judging from the way chaos posts large analyses (that ultimately are usually cherrypicked/wrong, from the analysis I've seen him put up in XLIV, here, and in cosmic) he's probably town.
jcarlsoniv
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
United States27922 Posts
September 04 2011 16:36 GMT
#555
Hey guys, I'm all moved into school now. Things I've learned while reading: I'm bad at no-flip, ace is more than likely scum, and you're all terrible with names.

I still find red's claim odd, but the more I think about it, the more ace's scenario just doesn't sit right with me. In a game of no-flip, it seems highly plausible that there would be a back up coroner. Otherwise, if the coroner gets sniped first day, we're nearly completely fucked.

I'll acknowledge that I haven't been playing very well. I'm not new to mafia, just rusty, and new to no-flip. I'm not used to not learning anything definitive from a lynch.

I'm going to switch my vote to ON. I don't like how he had a useless vote day 1 despite being there for the day switch. He has been lurking a lot, even when addressed directly.

@WBG, when I said the only downside to bum's story was that sinani was pretty much guaranteed town, I meant that since his entire theory was based off that, the rest couldn't be true.

##unvote
##vote OriginalName
Soniv ||| Soniv#1962 ||| @jcarlsoniv ||| The Big Golem ||| Join the Glorious Evolution. What's your favorite aminal, a bear? ||| Joe "Don't call me Daniel" "Soniv" "Daniel" Carlsberg LXIX ||| Paging Dr. John Shadow
redFF
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States3910 Posts
September 04 2011 16:43 GMT
#556
igrok could we get a who's voting who chart please.
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
September 04 2011 16:45 GMT
#557
On September 05 2011 00:35 wherebugsgo wrote:
A noob mafia :D

Neener neener ace whatcha gonna do when we come for youuuu

BTW where is Palmar? Palmar when you read this I want your opinions on ON/bum/Ace. I know you think chaos is mafia but judging from the way chaos posts large analyses (that ultimately are usually cherrypicked/wrong, from the analysis I've seen him put up in XLIV, here, and in cosmic) he's probably town.


pretty busy today, can write up stuff tomorrow.

two games in a row I have concluded that chaos13's reads cannot possibly be this bad, and thus he must be mafia, but two games in a row he has proven me wrong, once again I'm basing my read on him on the fact that I just don't agree with his reads.

Ace hasn't written anything, thus his alignment can't be determined yet. I think he's just being an asshole and not scum, but with so little to go on, the error margin is big.

Bum/On are my two primary targets for lynching today, only problem is that this setup sucks, so if we stick 4 on one, and 3 on the other, the mafia can stick 3 on the third and voteblock one of the three voting for bum/on, and thus guarantee a town kill, then they just reanimate someone as zombie and kill two more townies.

I haven't really done the math, but I can't see a way to actually win this thing.

I'm fine with lynching bum and on, let's do it. I'd be fine with day-vigging one of them and lynching chaos or ace.
Computer says mafia
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
September 04 2011 16:46 GMT
#558
man if we get 4 votes on bum and 3 on ON (assuming mafia won't let redFF live) then we could get both lynched with some luck on the pious dude.
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
September 04 2011 16:50 GMT
#559
we should just make a list and have the dayvig shoot whoever doesn't comply with what's on the list.
Computer says mafia
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
September 04 2011 16:52 GMT
#560
@bum if somehow you are town switch your vote to ON please. redFF is not scum.
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