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On July 21 2011 19:03 Liquid`Nazgul wrote:
If we are so sure RoL is 3rd party this read wouldn't change the next day. We could get away with trying to low mafia KP first and then vote RoL after we succeed at that?
Is it better to remove a 3rd party one round earlier or is it better to try and lower KP (could take us multiple days potentially)?
Of course killing mafia KP would be the priority. But in this case RoL has been silent for too long and could even be mafia, it's definitely better to attack RoL because he is almost representing both.
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On July 21 2011 19:03 Liquid`Nazgul wrote:
If we are so sure RoL is 3rd party this read wouldn't change the next day. We could get away with trying to low mafia KP first and then vote RoL after we succeed at that?
Is it better to remove a 3rd party one round earlier or is it better to try and lower KP (could take us multiple days potentially)?
Mafia kp is calculated in such a way: Mafia KP = ceiling(# of Mafia alive / 2 max of 3)
Which means that yes, if we hang mafia, we will bring them down to 4, thus reducing their KP to 2. And yes, if a stronger case for scum comes along we can always deal with RoL later (Although we need to hang 3rd party, they can't be shot). But hanging him also removes a KP from the game, given him being a 3rd party.
So, I think killing him is the best way to ensure less KP in the game.
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On July 21 2011 19:10 CreamyButter wrote:
I'm alive!
yes, unfortunately.
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United States4714 Posts
Ketomai how could he possibly be mafia lol? There is no way for mafia to survive a night hit unless a medic saved them. RoL is almost 100% 3rd party
Naz makes a very good point. Would it be better for us to try and remove KP that is guaranteed anti town or have the guaranteed removal of neutral kp. I really wish we knew who RoL shot yesterday, because if he shot Curu/syllo/notasmurf then he is clearly using his kp in an anti town way.
Btw I don't think it was a vig that shot RoL. If a vig shot RoL then 8 kp could have potentially been used last night, 3 mafia, 3rd party, 2 vigs. Only 5 people died and decon/rol claiming hits. It seems a lot more likely to me that one of the third parties shot RoL and couldn't kill him, like Ras shooting Joker. That would account for all of the missing kp.
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Lol sorry.
Should I bother attempting to analyze people anymore ._. I feel like no one would listen to me anyway
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On July 21 2011 19:12 Mig wrote:
Ketomai how could he possibly be mafia lol? There is no way for mafia to survive a night hit unless a medic saved them. RoL is almost 100% 3rd party
Naz makes a very good point. Would it be better for us to try and remove KP that is guaranteed anti town or have the guaranteed removal of neutral kp. I really wish we knew who RoL shot yesterday, because if he shot Curu/syllo/notasmurf then he is clearly using his kp in an anti town way.
Btw I don't think it was a vig that shot RoL. If a vig shot RoL then 8 kp could have potentially been used last night, 3 mafia, 3rd party, 2 vigs. Only 5 people died and decon/rol claiming hits. It seems a lot more likely to me that one of the third parties shot RoL and couldn't kill him, like Ras shooting Joker. That would account for all of the missing kp.
It's not hard to lie about a hit as well, it's a common mafia tactic. The main point is, I don't want to let him sit there, lurk, and confuse town any longer. Let him try to defend himself.
Lowering mafia KP is great, but TBH there's so many candidates with so many good arguments, and that's exactly how RoL never gets discussed for hits/lynch. We can agree that he has yet to answer for his quietness into bandwagon vote into more lurking.
To me he isn't playing like town at all unless there's a lot of PM activity going on (which I"m sure you, Mig, would know about) so it can only be leaning towards the other two.
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On July 21 2011 19:03 Liquid`Nazgul wrote:
If we are so sure RoL is 3rd party this read wouldn't change the next day. We could get away with trying to low mafia KP first and then vote RoL after we succeed at that?
Is it better to remove a 3rd party one round earlier or is it better to try and lower KP (could take us multiple days potentially)?
I think in general it's better to take out an SK, because that's a guaranteed 1 KP loss as opposed to 1/2 KP with Mafia. But atm we're at 5/7 Mafia. As I understand it the KP is # Mafia / 2 rounded up. So they're still on 3KP atm, but would be at 2 after another loss. So for tonight it's the same result either way.
But Batman might be investigating instead of killing.
Of course there is the possibility of taking out Joker or Batman, which will remove 3 or 2 SKs with one lynch.
Conclusion: It's a fucking mess with no best way forward ;D? We should go for the target whose alignment we're most sure of.
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United States4714 Posts
I haven't spoken much with RoL through pms. Curu told me that RoL was trying to buddy up with him quite a bit but that is all I know about how active RoL has been in pms.
Regardless of RoL's pm activity I really doubt he has done anything at all to help the town. So I certainly agree his play is not town like. But it seems unlikely to me that he would ever fake claim a hit as mafia right now. Seems 100x more likely he is 3rd party.
And so we have to decide whether killing a 3rd party is more important than lowering mafia kp which is guaranteed to be directed at town.
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On July 21 2011 19:27 Mig wrote:
I haven't spoken much with RoL through pms. Curu told me that RoL was trying to buddy up with him quite a bit but that is all I know about how active RoL has been in pms.
Regardless of RoL's pm activity I really doubt he has done anything at all to help the town. So I certainly agree his play is not town like. But it seems unlikely to me that he would ever fake claim a hit as mafia right now. Seems 100x more likely he is 3rd party.
And so we have to decide whether killing a 3rd party is more important than lowering mafia kp which is guaranteed to be directed at town.
Like I said it depends on how he defends himself. What we decide first is not which is better 3rd party or mafia kp, but which is more likely to be correct, our mafia lynch or SK-RoL lynch. In a situation where RoL is obviously SK and we have an obvious mafia, then yes, we would definitely take the KP. But for now, I would take the more likely option regardless of what it is.
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Lynching scum is better than lynching 3rd party.
But we have to be pretty damn sure we're lynching scum, because lynching 3rd party is better than lynching town.
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On July 21 2011 19:33 ketomai wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2011 19:27 Mig wrote:
I haven't spoken much with RoL through pms. Curu told me that RoL was trying to buddy up with him quite a bit but that is all I know about how active RoL has been in pms.
Regardless of RoL's pm activity I really doubt he has done anything at all to help the town. So I certainly agree his play is not town like. But it seems unlikely to me that he would ever fake claim a hit as mafia right now. Seems 100x more likely he is 3rd party.
And so we have to decide whether killing a 3rd party is more important than lowering mafia kp which is guaranteed to be directed at town. Like I said it depends on how he defends himself. What we decide first is not which is better 3rd party or mafia kp, but which is more likely to be correct, our mafia lynch or SK-RoL lynch. In a situation where RoL is obviously SK and we have an obvious mafia, then yes, we would definitely take the KP. But for now, I would take the more likely option regardless of what it is.
Ketomai is right.
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United States4714 Posts
Ok but what about the fact that RoL could be shot by the other 3rd parties and killed tonight? He is pretty much guaranteed 3rd party. So as long as he isnt Ras then the other 3rd parties will shoot and kill him.
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United States4714 Posts
We may not even need to use a lynch on him. We can have the 3rd parties take care of it for us. If he survives the night then he is almost certainly Ras and we could lynch him then.
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United States4714 Posts
Yea actually I am going to unvote. I think our best option is to let the other 3rd parties take care of him tonight and we try to lynch mafia ourselves.
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On July 21 2011 19:26 Lucidity wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2011 19:03 Liquid`Nazgul wrote:
If we are so sure RoL is 3rd party this read wouldn't change the next day. We could get away with trying to low mafia KP first and then vote RoL after we succeed at that?
Is it better to remove a 3rd party one round earlier or is it better to try and lower KP (could take us multiple days potentially)? I think in general it's better to take out an SK, because that's a guaranteed 1 KP loss as opposed to 1/2 KP with Mafia. But atm we're at 5/7 Mafia. As I understand it the KP is # Mafia / 2 rounded up. So they're still on 3KP atm, but would be at 2 after another loss. So for tonight it's the same result either way. But Batman might be investigating instead of killing. Of course there is the possibility of taking out Joker or Batman, which will remove 3 or 2 SKs with one lynch. Conclusion: It's a fucking mess with no best way forward ;D? We should go for the target whose alignment we're most sure of.
wouldn't it be better to lynch the potential SK given that if it is joker we eliminate 3KP and if it is Batman we eliminate 2KP and if its Ras then we break even by eliminating 1KP. Also these people are immune to vig hits so wouldn't it be better to lynch suspected SK and use vig hits on suspected scum later that night?
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On July 21 2011 19:44 Mig wrote:
Ok but what about the fact that RoL could be shot by the other 3rd parties and killed tonight? He is pretty much guaranteed 3rd party. So as long as he isnt Ras then the other 3rd parties will shoot and kill him.
Yea good point. I guess he's forced to explain himself even if we don't go for him now. Hm yea, so in this case just revealing someone as SK puts them at huge risk, it doesn't even need action from us because they have a triangular relationship. If he is SK and SK's are active, then he's guaranteed to die tonight anyways. If he's ra, then joker will kill him, if he's batman then ra will, and if he's joker then batman will kill him.
So regardless, he has to convince the other SK's he's not SK if he doesn't want to instantly die.
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On July 21 2011 18:27 Palmar wrote:
Here's my logic.
RoL wasn't worth saving, no Medic would ever think he was some kind of a high priority target for mafia, as he was detrimental and not beneficial to town on day one. And I doubt any medics out there are trying to save random lurkers who they think might get sniped by vigis or 3rd parties.... that'd be insane.
No medic would protect you, and ignore great players like Curu, notasmurf and syllogism, people who have actively contributed in and out of the thread. It simply doesn't add up.
You see, I think one part is true, I think you did take a shot.
And I think you're afraid the vigi who shot it might point it out and come after you, so better claim it yourself.
Problem is, you didn't get saved, you're just immune to night hits, you see where I'm going with this? I think we can lower hostile KP's by one just by hanging you tonight.
Important
If you are the doctor who did indeed save RoL, you need to find a way to stop us from lynching him, as it's simply unreasonable to think he actually got saved at the moment.
Here's how you do that. You claim to the person you think is most pro-town in the thread, and he will then confirm in the thread that the Doctor has whispered to him and confirmed RoL did indeed get saved. Just go with your own instinct on finding a pro-town player.
The disclaimer is that any doc claims made by the Insane Inmates trio, will be ignored.
Conclusion
I think RebirthOfLeGenD is almost definitely third party. I think he did take a hit last night, and I think he's immune to night kills. I think he should hang.
Waiting for a Medic to prove me wrong, until then, my vote remains.
Completely agree with the above. At first I thought your doc claim idea was scummy, because it could result in a loss of our 2nd doctor in 2 nights. But thinking about it, if the person the doc claimed to happens to be scum (which is less likely than being town) he will be lynched the day after the doc dies. The mafia are losing players too fast to take that trade I think.
The only problem is verifying that an actual doc claimed. A fake doc can claim, and even if no one claims, a player can simply say that he was PM'd when he was not... No one would know. There are more untrustworthy players that just the 3 II claimants.
##vote RebirthOfLeGenD
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United States4714 Posts
There is really no point in us lynching RoL. The sks are guaranteed to try and kill him tonight.
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On July 21 2011 19:46 Mig wrote:
Yea actually I am going to unvote. I think our best option is to let the other 3rd parties take care of him tonight and we try to lynch mafia ourselves.
Actually after reading this I think your right its probably better to wait and let the other 3rd parties have a crack at him, and if not get him on D3.
best case is RoL is Joker and batman kills him tonight removing all 3Ps and we lynch a mafia tonight and we eliminate 4KPs.
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EPT
