EPTParanoid Mafia
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Pyo
United States738 Posts
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Pyo
United States738 Posts
On June 29 2011 07:01 Palmar wrote: Can the detectives self-check? With framers present, it doesn't really help determine that you are sane by self-checking. | ||
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Pyo
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what time will the posting/voting deadline be? According to the OP, it will be at "time" | ||
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Pyo
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On June 30 2011 13:38 Ace wrote: With 4 detectives that is going to be a problem for the Mafia. Even with a framer all it takes is all the Detectives claiming Day 3 with 2 nights worth of checks and that's game over. In fact they could all role claim Day 1 and with at most 6 players claiming DT, the 2 Vanilla Townies and the Vigi become confirmed. Night 1 the Vigi just shoots 1 of the 6 (if none died Night 0). The next day it repeats and even with a Night start it's going to be hard for Mafia to win assuming the Town isn't full of idiots, which I know is a big assumption. Probably might have to take out the Goon and give them a RB so that if the DTs do claim one of them can't confirm himself at night giving Mafia more of a chance. I don't think that everyone claiming their role night 0 is game breaking. If everyone claims their role Day 1, mafia can't both claim DT or both claim town. If they do one of the following situations will occur assuming no DT powers are used. 4 DT claims, 5 green/vigi claims Vigi kills a random town night 0, mafia kills a DT night 0, (3 DT's, 4 greens) Town then lynches each of the green claims. Assuming optimal strategy by mafia (only kill DT's), here are the possible outcomes: 1/8 chance town wins at the end of day 1 1/12 chance mafia wins end of day 2 5/24 chance for town to win end of day 2 7/24 chance mafia wins end of day 3 7/24 chance town wins end of day 3 mafia chance: 3/8 town chance: 5/8 6 DT claims, 3 green/vigi claims Vigi kills random DT night 0, mafia kills green night 0 (5 DT's, 2 greens) Town then lynches mafia and mafia kills greens. 1/15 chance town wins end of day 1 2/15 chance town wins end of day 2 1/5 chance mafia wins end of day 2 1/5 chacne mafia wins end of day 3 2/5 chance town wins end of day 3 mafia chance: 2/5 town chance: 3/5 In both cases it is overwhelmingly in favor of town, i.e. it would be very bad for mafia to do this considering DT checks are in play, which will make it immeasurably more likely to nab the mafia. Therefore, in a situation where everyone must declare their role, we're going to see the following: 5 DT claims, 4 green/vigi claims Optimal strategy for mafia would generally be to target the larger group while town should always target the smaller group except for that under these conditions, Vigi shouldn't shoot night 0. By not shooting night 0, mafia must decide whether to gamble whether they want to go for the vigi kill (after day 2, the vigi kill will be a definite kill mafia hit if the town hasn't gotten the mafia claiming green by then). The problem with mafia going for greens is that if they whiff night 0 the vigi gets a guaranteed kill day 1 if he didn't get himself lynched. Meanwhile, DT's should only be checking themselves. All in all, I don't see a clear optimal strategy or even a case where I can calculate odds of winning considering mafia does have the power to sway lynches, etc. The only concern I have about the game set-up is that random chance plays a HUGE role in altering the power balance, but those things will become apparent or can be dismissed as irrelevant as the game progresses. | ||
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Pyo
United States738 Posts
However, if the mafia split their claims, there is no optimal strategy because it will take too long to systematically eliminate players. This forces the town to get super lucky or to actually have to make scum reads if they want to win. | ||
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Pyo
United States738 Posts
On July 01 2011 03:33 Ace wrote: by the way to even understand where I'm coming from you need to realize how Masons and confirmed town works. After you've thought about that then read this to extrapolate: http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Dethy http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Dethy/Analysis This is pretty much a game of Dethy with a Vigilante and an extra scum. The Night 0/Day 1 RC accomplishes the same thing as everyone in Dethy claiming Cop except that the town has a Vigilante, and that the Scum only have 1 realistic option of winning which isn't even that good. When I analyze games I always try and find out what's the fastest ways to get confirmed town. If it's possible to do it with just a mass claim on Night 0 chances are that Scum will lose very fast. I'm not really disagreeing with you. I'm simply saying that mass role claiming with mafia splitting their claims does not lead to any confirmed towns therefore the game isn't broken by a mass night 0 role claim. Adding a roleblocker also does not change the fact that mafia must split their claims if there is a mass night 0 role claim. Having an RB doesn't matter if you don't even need the roles for town to win, which is the case with mafia double DT claiming or double town claiming. Anyway, we'll see how the game plays out. If the game really is broken, it'll become abundantly clear. I mean isn't the point of themed mafia games to try out unusual powers and/or set-ups (some of which might not always work)? | ||
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Pyo
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I'm a townie. | ||
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Pyo
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Well vigi shouldn't necessarily shoot N0. Here's my thinking, correct me if I'm wrong. Right now we have 5 DT claims and 4 Town/vigi claims. That means that there is a mafia in each group, as expected (assuming a townie didn't lie - they have no reason to). A general strategy would be for town to keep our DTs alive and checking as long as possible, so the greater our chance that the sane DTs can figure out who they are. This means that we should go after the mafia claiming town first. If we were to randomly pick a person out of a hat, we'd have a 1 in 4 chance of lynching the mafia. However, the Vigi has a 1 in 3 chance of lynching that mafia. The more people in the claimed town group that die, the greater the chances of picking the mafia become, so it really doesn't make sense for mafia to shoot a town (but it works out better for town if they do). Additionally, the longer the Vigi stays alive, the better his chance of shooting the mafia become (since he has one additional piece of information that no one else has: the fact that he knows who he is). The only danger is that town might accidentally lynch him, and if they do he loses his shot. Here's where my solution come in, town should decide during the night who they are going to lynch tomorrow. The vigi can then see oh shit I guess I'm going to end up dead, so I'd better take my chances tonight and shoot someone. If town happens to target someone who isn't him, he can just hold his shot for another night knowing that he is safe to do so. Furthermore, seeing a shot go off is basically a way for town to know that the guy we had decided to randomly kill was town aligned so the next day we can just kill someone else. And if we don't see the shot go off, we just go ahead with the lynch as planned. The best part is that there really isn't anything mafia can do to stop us. Any thoughts? | ||
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Pyo
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I also want to point out the irony in this post by RoL... | ||
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Pyo
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On July 02 2011 00:57 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I vote to lynch Deconduo and have all the DT's check him tonight. Is there some inside joke I'm not getting here? If we're going to decide night 0 who to vote for, it should be a claimed VT. If we're just going to vote for a DT, you might as well wait till day 1. Additionally, there isn't much point in DT checking someone who you want to die, but frankly night 0 it really doesn't matter who you check, but it is important that DT's spread their checks so they aren't affected by the framer. | ||
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Pyo
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My bad. Well I guess that means there's nothing for VTs to do tonight... yawn. | ||
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Pyo
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On July 02 2011 05:26 sandroba wrote: And by sinani I mean decon's plan of DTs checking the DTs bellow them. But why would a sane DT report that he's sane? And if DTs can't report why does it matter who they actually check? If mafia know that DT's are only checking other DT's, that just makes it more likely that the framer will succeed. DT's should just check whomever they feel like. | ||
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Pyo
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On July 02 2011 09:22 sandroba wrote: That being said RoL is probably town and framed or I'm paranoid. We should Start with RVS on the townies left. If vig is planning to shoot tonight he should probably claim already so we can choose between 2 (non RoL townies). That's kind of a WIFOM situation, so I wouldn't rule him out yet. I agree, let's go lynch a townie. If we happen to pick the Vigi, he should claim. Best part is that mafia can't false claim because he'll be dead next night cycle if he does. On July 02 2011 10:33 sinani206 wrote: Checked misder, got townie. He's confirmed. On July 02 2011 10:34 sinani206 wrote: Also, I must be regular DT, so I'll probably die tonight. Or you're mafia protecting the other mafia. Or you're a mafia claiming a truth to establish cred when misder gets killed. Or you're telling the truth. THIS IS ALL WIFOM!!!!!!!!! We didn't learn anything from you claiming. DT's don't need/shouldn't to claim and if they confirm they are sane, there is no reason to out themselves yet... | ||
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Pyo
United States738 Posts
On July 02 2011 10:42 Misder wrote: FYI, framer can frame someone to be town. Sinani, though, is confirmed sane. Need one more claim. um, no. He can be mafia lol. And since it is entirely possible for both sane DT's to not know that they are sane yet, no one can counterclaim. As far as I'm concerned, there is only 1 confirmed townie, and that's me. | ||
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Pyo
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On July 02 2011 10:50 supersoft wrote: ahm no misder is the confirmed townie. I checked you and I found SCUM This might be a lost in translation moment, but what I meant was I know I'm town because I got a PM from iGrok telling me I was. There is other information publicly available in this thread confirming anyone's alignments besides knowing that decon was really a blue. | ||
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Pyo
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Pyo
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On July 02 2011 11:10 Misder wrote: Pyo, claiming is useful. Also, don't WIFOM yourself. Patience and scumhunting is what you need. We're waiting for nard to claim before we start lynching. No, claiming right now is not useful. And, I'm not WIFOMing myself, I'm simply saying that all of these claims are not conclusive. The only way I'll believe that you're town is the other sane DT claims saying that sinani206 is town, but that's would be just silly since they would both just die and the game would be over. And surely everyone should know that claiming sane DT is ridiculously bad play and needlessly risky so early in the game. Throw in the fact that mafia needs to be very proactive in this game set up, I'm extremely suspicious of sinani206 right now. | ||
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Pyo
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On July 02 2011 12:26 sinani206 wrote: Five people claimed DT. 1 died and 2 outed their results before me. It would have looked scummy to not out my results. Difference is that they got scum reads... | ||
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Pyo
United States738 Posts
On July 02 2011 11:55 Misder wrote: I don't get why you think claiming now is not useful. And information, although useful, is not going to win us the game, scumhunting will. And it seems like youre unwilling to do that. I rather dts claim now then us lose information. Also, although it's very helpful to have sane cops alive, we don't lose the game if they are not. Am I the only one who thinks that this whole like of thinking is completely non-sensical. Why would giving away an advantage be a good thing? First you say, "information, although useful, is not going to win us the game." Then you say "I rather dts claim now then us lose information." You're contradicting yourself. You want scum-hunting, there you have it. I was going to vote for whoever's brilliant idea it was to have DT's out themselves day 1 when nothing can be confirmed by it, and low and behold, it's you. Until I see evidence to the contrary, I think we've just found our mafia pair: sinani206 and Misder. ##vote: Misder | ||
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Pyo
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On July 02 2011 16:23 sinani206 wrote: You call that scumhunting? All you did was find the tiniest little thing that possibly could be considered noob town at worst and declare that you've already found the scum. I'm pressure voting for RoL because he hasn't posted yet today and I know that he's a good player. ##Vote: RebirthOfLegend Yeah, two noob-towns who just happened to be checking each other? It's a little hard for me to believe, but w/e, if you're actually telling the truth you're probably going to be dead during the next night cycle from which we get nothing but more WIFOM... | ||
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Pyo
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On July 02 2011 19:57 supersoft wrote: sandroba: K, checked RoL got scum. GG. sinani206: Checked misder, got townie. supersoft: checked pyo, got scum nard: Sandroba is Mafia. _________________________________________ if misder and sinani206 are scum, we would have 3 insane DTs. Or mafia framed pyo/RoL/sandroba i don't know, I don't think misder and sinani206 is our scumpair I could see how either RoL or myself could have been framed. RoL was the FoS of the guy who got shot and I made a whole bunch of "optimal strategy" posts. Basically, of the four, one of them is scum. sinani stood out to me as the least believable. | ||
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Pyo
United States738 Posts
All of that is a false premise - neither you nor misder is "confirmed." Stop blue hunting. Vigi shouldn't need to claim unless he's about to be lynched. If mafia want to waste KP hunting Vigi, that simply gives time for the sane DT to actually know he's sane/get more checks, while making it easier for the Vigi to actually hit the mafia false-claiming VT. | ||
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Pyo
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On July 03 2011 05:31 sandroba wrote: I like nards plan. If we lynch sinani today there are 2 outcomes: 1)He is scum: good 2)He is town: Mysder is confirmed town: Mafia has to shoot him. We can confirm our sanity by having an extra night of checks + townie flips. Vig claims and shoots 1 of the remaining townies. We lynch the other tomorrow. We have 100% of lynching scum. Vote:Sinani206 What??? if he's actually town, then why would it be a good idea to kill him? Also, sinani flipping green doesn't clear misder since the framer can make one of them appear to be town. | ||
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Pyo
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Basically, RoL just claimed vigi, so if he's lying the real vigi will kill him tonight. If he's telling the truth, either Fishball is mafia and we can now focus on DTs or Fishball is town leaving RoL to decide between me or Misder to kill tonight. Even if he for whatever reason decides kills me, town will know who to lynch the following day. ##Unvote ##Vote: Fishball | ||
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Pyo
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1. 2. sinani206--------------- RebirthOfLeGenD 3. RebirthOfLeGenD--- Fishball 4. Fishball------------------ RebirthOfLeGenD 5. Sandroba--------------- 6. Pyo----------------------- 7. supersoft--------------- 8. nard---------------------- Sandroba 9. Misder------------------- Fishball Fishball (4) RebirthOfLeGenD (2) Sandroba (2) | ||
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Pyo
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On July 04 2011 05:02 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I have the same thoughts as you on pyo, but I view the only logical way to go about this is killing Misder last, since he is a most likely townie or we win the game by knowing him and sinani are scum. So unfortunately that means lynch or kill you, then lynch or kill Pyo. Pyo looked down, so I opted to try to lynch Viscera and hope for the best case scenario. If you aren't scum then i will vigi Pyo tonight leaving Misder as the only other possible scum, and since he is not a likely "Cover" candidate, or even a check candidate I would assume that Sinani must be lying. I'm actually fine with that since it is grounded in reasonably sound logic (unlike 90% of the ideas/strategies proposed so far). | ||
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Pyo
United States738 Posts
Currently we have players left in the game. Misder, myself, and pyo are confirmed 100% innocent. We know there is a liar in the blues. There are currently 4 remaining blues in the game. After tonight there will be 3, since I am obviously going to kill one. Which means we now have 3-2 scenario tomorrow since the mafia has to kill me. There is a 25% chance I hit scum by randomly killing a blue. With the next lynch there is a 33% chance of hitting him, once again based purely off of luck. The next cycle there is now one VT and two blues left. Now there is a straight 50% chance of victory. Statistically the mafia has a mere 4% chance of victory assuming we completely guess at who the scum is, those are odds I would take as town. I could theoretically create a list right now of the lynch order for the next two days and if the town agrees to follow it, regardless of what the mafia does, there is only a 4% chance of victory. Now let's go further into why exactly this mafia is absolutely fucked. Unfortunately we ended up with the framer left, which sucks a bit, but isn't the biggest deal, considering we mathematically dominated the mafia as mentioned above. The town has 1 DT we can be reasonably sure is both sane, and innocent. If I extrapolate this one step further, it leads to a 33% chance of victory with my vig hit, a 50% chance of victory with the lynch, and a 100% chance of victory with the following lynch. Wait you say, how could this possibly get worse? Well on top of that we have 3 DTs whose checks are all circle jerking each other, so he can't even risk not framing himself otherwise he could just get nailed as scum off the bat, since all he can do is kill the VT's, because any shooting into his blue group would immediately guarantee our victory. So on that note, I call for the mafia to resign. Statistically you have less than a 4% chance if we ignore all wifom and just randomly do everything. In fact, while I could eliminate sinani from the group because of his DT check on Misder I won't. This would introduce potential mafia Wifom into the equation, meaning a clever/lucky play on Day 1 would of made a guaranteed victory turn into a loss. I'd rather totally ignore it and go with the 96% chance of victory.[/QUOTE] 4% chance is still greater than 0%. However, depending on how DT's check each other tonight, it could become game over. I mean, if I were mafia, I would still play it out and try to pull something clever out of my butt, so I'll encourage the remaining mafia to go for it. For the sake of ending the game sooner, I would encourage the DT's to check in such a way that would best determine your sanity. As for the vigi kill, I would recommend either nard or sinani since they were the second two to claim their checks. Mafia would have been foolish to claim right away without hearing some of the other claims or he'd risk outting himself right at the get go. | ||
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Pyo
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The part that was actually me talking was the following: 4% chance is still greater than 0%. However, depending on how DT's check each other tonight, it could become game over. I mean, if I were mafia, I would still play it out and try to pull something clever out of my butt, so I'll encourage the remaining mafia to go for it. For the sake of ending the game sooner, I would encourage the DT's to check in such a way that would best determine your sanity. As for the vigi kill, I would recommend either nard or sinani since they were the second two to claim their checks. Mafia would have been foolish to claim right away without hearing some of the other claims or he'd risk outting himself right at the get go. | ||
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Pyo
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On July 04 2011 12:24 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I will do whatever I want. Quiet you! Also that is the most generic advice I have ever read. You're not a DT, so I wasn't talking to you. And my advice wasn't as generic as you make it out to be. I meant that the DTs should go for determining their sanity rather than necessarily go for trying to find the remaining scum. In other words some of them should consider checking a confirmed townie rather than just simply "circle jerking" amongst other DTs. | ||
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Pyo
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On July 04 2011 12:33 Pyo wrote: You're not a DT, so I wasn't talking to you. And my advice wasn't as generic as you make it out to be. I meant that the DTs should go for determining their sanity rather than necessarily go for trying to find the remaining scum. In other words some of them should consider checking a confirmed townie rather than just simply "circle jerking" amongst other DTs. as far using your shot, just shoot whoever. Hell, you can shoot me to make the game more interesting if you want... | ||
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Pyo
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Pyo
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deconduo - sane, killed night 0 sandroba - sane, checked a framed RoL - sees scum supersoft - paranoid, checked Pyo - sees scum sinani - lying, claims sane (saw the first two claims so knew it was safe to claim sane) nard - paranoid, checked sandroba - sees scum Obviously after night 1, depending on who RoL killed, and who the DTs checked/reported it could it could be determined that this was not the scenario, but how do we know this day 1? | ||
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