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On June 30 2011 14:14 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2011 13:55 GMarshal wrote:On June 30 2011 13:54 youngminii wrote:
GTRSRS HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT GMARSHAL?
WHAT ARE YOUR OPINIONS ON PALMAR'S CONSTANT VOTE SWITCHING?
DO YOU THINK VISCERAEYES COULD BE SCUM AND TRYING SOME GOSU STRATEGY?
i hope the caps created a sense of urgency for your caffeinated brain Please don't spam caps, they hurt my eyes -__- Also they have a habit of making me hungry.
+ Show Spoiler +
Yeah, GM, like YM said, if you think there's a chance you might actually die (RB, second hit), you should post all your thoughts now.
Then, if you do actually die, we can know we can trust them, and we have them, and if you don't die, well then your thoughts are in the thread anyways, which is a good thing for us most of the time.
I'm going to go back and look at who was trying to keep the lynch off Drazerk and how right now, I propose others do the same, and see what we can come up with.
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On June 30 2011 23:20 Jackal58 wrote:
Well that should teach me to forgo sleep. 10 pages of mostly useless shit.
The Lurker list:
hyaach
Mr Wiggles
Opz
Kenpachi
GGQ
aprudds
Eiii
Of those that made it 2 are players that have been subbed. aprudds is now Mataza. Welcome to the cluster fuck Mataza. And GGQ. GGQ's apparent lack of activity has disappointed me, however no matter his alignment he never posts a shitload anyways. At least not in the 5 or 6 games I've played with him. I'm thinking if a vig wishes to shoot into that list you avoid those 2 atm.
That leaves:
hyaach
Mr Wiggles
Opz
Kenpachi
Eiii
Who the fuck is hyaach? If he has indeed avoided a modkill I think he would make an excellent lurker vig shot.
Of the others between Mr.Wiggles, Opz, and Eii I'll bet one of them is scum. I'm leaning towards Opz.
I also think the odds are extremely high that VisceraEyes and the rest of the scum team bussed Drovzk (sp). There is already some evidence that TAA had already checked him (I don't know if the time line bears this out. If it's already been checked please spare me the effort of connecting the dots) The odds of both DTs checking the same player on the same day just seem rather low to me. If that is the case and you guys buy that he is DT then scum have managed to manipulate a medic protect while allowing him to claim role block ad nauseum. This part is important. If you are role blocked claim it immediately. If Viscera is scum then the scum team has pretty much handcuffed their RB ability.
GMarshal appears to be combining his last mayoral campaign with his endgame play in PTP. Both times he was scum. By all means if you have a gun shoot him.
About who TAA checked, I don't think it was Drazerk. The reason for this is that TAA made a post somewhere, saying that if GM were mafia he is the GF, and also, importantly, that DTs should check Drazerk.
This is important, because a DT who had just checked and confirmed someone as scum would push harder for their lynch, not ask for other detectives to waste a check on him.
He also asks for someone to shoot GM in the same post.
So, what I'm thinking is that he checked GM, who returned vet, but still thought his play was scummy enough for him to be mafia. So, he kept pushing for him, and starting calling him the GF, while asking for a shot on him, which would incidentally prove or disprove him to be town, similar to the situation we're in now.
This make sense?
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I'm also going to stick my vote on GM for now, until he gets shot and can prove his alignment. Will change then.
##Vote: GMarshal
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Hiro Protagonist:
This is someone who's mostly fallen off the radar, except for the last couple pages, and who actually had a fair bit of pressure on him day 1, making the fact he's been mostly forgotten a little weird.
He basically starts day 1 off by agreeing with GM and parroting the shoot lurkers sentiment.
+ Show Spoiler +On June 28 2011 12:13 hiro protagonist wrote:
Sup town!
I am 100% behind Gmarshal about lurkers/trolls. that is all I have to say about that.
so everyone, lets get into it: towns lurker KP should be used once any lurker list is up. As such, I doubt very much that we will need to do a policy lynch on lurkers (which is something I almost always advocate).
Conversely: mafia, with the lurker mod on, will try and be spammy. Vigs, please,please,PLEASE, just shoot anyone that is cluttering up the thread with nonsense.
His next contribution is a list, which is basically a non-contribution, as anyone who's played more than a couple games here is capable of making one. As well, there is no reasoning with it, just names.
+ Show Spoiler +On June 28 2011 13:34 hiro protagonist wrote:
Ok, chaos, he is a list:
GMarshal
youngminii
Jackal58
~OpZ~
Mr. Wiggles
Kenpachi
these are the most skilled/vets players in this game. Fun fact: GMarshal has never been lynched as town. Another fun fact: Mr. Wiggles has been mafia the last 2 games I played with him.
The following players I would describe as skilled, or at least very active when playing town:
DropBear
Cthsazsa
Mig
sandroba
VisceraEyes
Palmar
Varpulis
Everyone else I have no experience playing with.
GM calls him out on his posting of rehashed ideas, and here is his defense:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 29 2011 04:55 hiro protagonist wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2011 03:43 GMarshal wrote:He only has 7 posts, but I'll only include those that successfully brought something new to the table to discuss. They are all in the spoiler + Show Spoiler +That was easy. Each and every one of his posts masquerades as having content, without really including anything worthwhile. It takes no stances and interestingly enough brings up mild opposition to LSB's plan. This isn't necessarily damning, but I want hiro to start taking definite stances. I want so see which lynch he would advocate today, and what he thinks about pretty much everything. This "posting just to get by" is bad for the town, and he isn't going to get away with it. Yes this case is not extremely solid, but the PBP I originally wrote was all "no content" and "fluff" comments, which would have made my case longer than necessary for clarity, in essence hiro needs to give us more so we can actually assess his alignment, as reading over his posts reveals nothing. Hi Gmarshal! So you think my posts so far have no content? fluff? putting a pressure vote on me? OK, I can dig that. My defense is an easy one: everyone of my first 7 post where in the first 2 hours of the game, in which I: * encourage town not to lurk, not to spam, or there will be consequences.* made a list of players that are vets and should be put under scrutiny (thats why KenP was on it, and I put mine up before yours GM, but yours was better written i must say). How does one be pro-town in the beginning of the game? why, by creating a good town atmosphere! I did just that. So did you. Your opening post was just what I wanted to say, but you said it first, so I just agreed with you. Then I went to bed, woke up, and went to work. now I am here again, and I will contribute like a good townie should: scum hunting. I have some leads(*cough Syllogism *cough), and I will make a post about it in a bit. keep your votes on me if you think I wont follow through ^__^
Basically plays up his posts as doing something more than they were. I also laughed at the bolded bit as again, it is essentially echoing GM's first post in the thread. Also note that Hiro promises scum-hunting from himself. Notes a suspicion of syllogism with no reasoning.
Now, this is a little funny:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 29 2011 07:42 hiro protagonist wrote:
##Vote syllogism
You still have not given me a reason not to vote for you. I am willing to believe you when you say all of your posts are not fluff and are pro-town, but none of your posts tells me who you think are scum, or what your opinion on anyone is. time for you to step up. Tell me who YOU think is scum. Give opinions on other lynch candidates. Do this, and I will move my vote off you. On June 29 2011 08:03 hiro protagonist wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2011 07:55 sandroba wrote:
@Hiro How about a reason to vote for him? I'm pretty confident syllogism is town. He hasn't stuck his neck out on anything or given an opinion. His post so far are like the first level of a video game: tutorials. Dont get me wrong, helping out the newer players is fine (I would consider myself a newer player) but where half way though day 1, and its time to move on to finding scum. He has not done that.
He starts to press syllo pretty hard, but now it's not because he's scum. So, somewhere between here and his last couple posts, he changes his mind on syllo from being scummy, to just posting pro-town and not giving opinions. Also note the delicious irony in his reasons for voting syllo. He calls him out for not giving concrete opinions on anything, while posting generic town advice, which is actually a good description for Hiro's own posting up until that point. Again, he avoids saying that he thinks syllo is scum anymore, while saying that town needs to find scum, which apparently he has not done either.
+ Show Spoiler +On June 29 2011 08:12 hiro protagonist wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2011 08:09 aprudds wrote:On June 29 2011 08:05 hiro protagonist wrote:On June 29 2011 07:58 syllogism wrote:
So let's see Hiro, 3 hours ago you made a post promising you had some "leads" and would make a case on me (when in fact, there was already a bad case/wagon which you never improved) and go "scum hunting". Now 3 hours later you still haven't made a case, jump on the said stupid and easy wagon, vote for me citing my lack of opinions so far being your sole reason despite this being your first complete non-fluff post. Are you not seeing the hypocrisy?
Around 15 people haven't even voted yet and most of them haven't expressed any suspicion yet. See the problem? no problem, glad your here. who do you think is scum? Wouldn't the proper response here be to express your own thoughts instead of deflecting it to someone else? Don't you think not even attempting to say anything just makes you look like a scummy fool? My whole reason for voting for him is so I could get an opinion off of him. Why else would I ask?
Syllo actually calls out Hiro for his contradictory posting, and instead of addressing it, he just calls out syllo some more. Then, when asked to give his own opinions again, he deflects it by saying he wants to get an opinion from syllo.
After this, syllo gives some kind of opinion, and Hiro takes his vote off very easily, before reading up on TAA's analysis and hopping on Drazerk, again with no reasoning of his own, just agreement with what's been posted. After page 28, he's completely disappeared, which leaves me surprised for why he's not on the lurker list.
So to sum up:
- Parrots the ideas of others in the thread while adding nothing new
- Posts with little content and when called out, plays them up to be something more than they are
- Promises scum-hunting and never follows through
- Goes from a weird "I think Syllo is scum" to "Syllo isn't posting content" to "I just want his opinion", when successively called out on his hypocritical posting and pressure
- Pressures Syllo for his opinions and infers he is scummy from not posting any, while refusing to post any himself
- Hops on the Drazerk analysis easily (again with no reasoning of his own) and disappears
Verdict: Probable Scum
He's disappeared since page 28, so I'm hesitant to actually take much action at this point. If he ever shows up again, I'd like to see his defense and get his opinions, or else we can just shoot him when he shows up on the lurker list Day 3, if he isn't modkilled. I think he's likely to flip scum, but I wouldn't waste a lynch or vig shot on someone who hasn't posted for so long.
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On July 01 2011 05:48 syllogism wrote:
As for GM, I don't see how vigi hitting him is useful. The vigi would have to roleclaim and we've no way of knowing if the vigi is town without wasting a DT check on him. Now, this would net us two scum, but the odds them doing this gambit are low. However the mere possibility means GM can't be confirmed in this manner. Even assuming we believe the vigi and thus confirm both, one or both of them will be likely mafia targets. If the vigi is a compulsory vigi, this doesn't seem like a good trade. It seems to me GM has to be lynched sooner or later.
Actually, yeah, I think you might be right. For some reason, I was working under the assumption that hits would show up in posts similar to how the kills have been. That might be wrong though, as failed hits normally aren't reported, and I just realized that. -_-
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On July 01 2011 08:16 Eiii wrote:
hahahaha
Anyway, town seems to have lost focus between the GM ordeal and everything else. I think all that needs to be said is that he's used the pressure as an excuse to completely stop contributing analysis or anything at all apart from 'shoot me', which is extremely scummy in my eyes. We can lynch him today, but I'd rather just pretend that every non-useful post of his in the thread doesn't exist so we can focus on more interesting targets.
I'm still curious to see what other people have to say about chaos/hiro. I don't think the case against 206 is too strong, he just feels like bad town to me.
Well, like I said, Hiro looks a lot like scum to me, but it also looks like he's not even here either. I'm gonna have to go back and look at chaos' posts.
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On July 01 2011 09:31 Eiii wrote:
that's the thing, even if he does get shot the only word we have to go on is GM's, unless we want a vig to claim (which I assume we don't).
Mhmm, a lot of GM's credibility seems to be shot in the eyes of a lot of people it seems. So, pretty much the only way those people will trust him is if the vig claims as well. Also, by this point, mafia probably has an RB or something on GM if he is a vet.
GM, can you just contribute like you normally would, so we can judge you from that? I don't care if you aren't shot and confirmed if you start contributing more. If you do that, I'll be able to tell better from your posts what your alignment is, and it's more helpful if something bad happens to have more info in thread than not if you are town.
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Yeah, the kill on Varp doesn't tell us much about visc's alignment:
If visc is mafia:
-He doesn't know Varp's role, and so mafia need to kill him to hide that fact
If visc is a DT:
-Mafia don't want a confirmed townie running around
-Mafia want it to look like the first case
I'm actually expecting stuff like this to continue happening with visc's checks. The best thing to do, will be to lie about who you're checking, and add some WIFOM for the mafia, for if they should kill who you say, and then unless you get a red check, don't bother revealing until the last six hours, unless people are pushing for an innocent lynch.
My two cents about subsequent checks.
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6 hours before the lynch? :p
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Hmmmm, about the role set-up:
Possibilities include:
-3 DTs
-Lack of Killing Roles (Observable so far)
or maybe
-3 DTs
-Multiple Millers
I don't think it's enough to lynch visc on just because there were two other detectives, especially in a set-up where there's the possibility of millers, as well as a seeming lack of town KP. I'd rather we just keep him on a short leash and see how he acts on Day 3. As well, visc, I'd like you to start actually contributing beyond being a possible detective. Make analysis, scum hunt, and actually contribute. Just talking about how you're the detective isn't contributing, and if I'm going to lynch you for anything, it will be for acting scummy, which hiding behind being a detective as an excuse to not contribute anything else is.
I'm washing my car right now, but after that I'm going to look at Chaos' posts and see if he bread-crumbed any suspicions or called anyone out as being pro-town, etc. I'll let you guys know what I find.
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On July 02 2011 05:39 syllogism wrote:
Viscera checking Drazerk frankly doesn't make sense. Mafia not killing him immediately after day 2 post makes no sense. Do you know why? It's quite possible medics would either send in their PMs too late or still be stuck with their previous targets due to it lasting 36h. These could be explained by mafia being inept of course, but it just to the suspicion.
What is the alternative method of dealing/confirming him then? Make him do the same check tomorrow? Mafia could kill proposed targets and giving him too much leeway would allow him checking another mafia. Moreover, the target would likely be VT. Unless we get lucky, I don't think we can trust him unless he gives us a red.
Well, we could just get him to start playing like a normal DT, as in he checks whoever he wants, potentially out of a list agreed on by town (maybe not as it's open to scum influence), and then doesn't reveal his check, unless the person he checked is getting pushed for the lynch and are town, or he can reveal if he checks red. I'd still like to see analysis behind any checks though, innocent or guilty. There's still a GF kicking around, and there's the distinct possibility of millers. So, any action we take based on a check, should be backed up by analysis, especially if it was proposed by visc.
So basically, he doesn't announce checks unless it's a town being pushed towards the lynch, or if he finds a red. Then, all checks should be taken with a large grain of salt and backed up by strong analysis before we act on them. Anyone jumping on a bandwagon, or acting like his checks are 100% fool-proof, are either playing bad or are mafia.
It actually makes sense for mafia to keep him alive if he's DT, as it would be very easy to throw suspicion on him and push for his lynch. Mafia are playing from behind right now, and every mislynch helps them, especially if it's a blue, and until we can figure out a way to confirm him, we can't actually trust any of his checks, similar to the situation with GM right now.
However, if he's mafia expect him to either just announce checks as innocent (which is what a townie would do too, no need to our potential blues), or to claim being RBed.
That's why I'm asking him to contribute, because if he's mafia, it's easy to hide behind being the DT and not act pro-town in any other way, whereas a real townie would be eager to scum hunt, in addition to any checks. Blue roles don't win games, analysis does.
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On July 02 2011 06:04 syllogism wrote:
That makes sense except for the part where you says he could stop town from mislynching, as he could just as well be diverting a lynch from his scum mate.
Huh? Never said that, said if he's a real DT, it's easy for scum to mislynch him.
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Ok, I'm back, and the game is going really good apparently. :p
I'm gonna address a few things:
On July 02 2011 08:28 syllogism wrote:
Mr. Wiggles looks pretty bad based on his defense of VE. It's not possible for mafia to have shot VE, all mafia hits are accounted for (Sandroba, Chaos13, Varpulis). If a vigi killed one of those, just claim.
Could you please point out where I defended visc? I don't think I have any posts where I say he's the detective, and I was content to let him sit in unconfirmed limbo until his posting revealed what he was for certain. The fact that he never made any post besides talking about how he was the DT made him look scummier and scummier to me, and if he continued, I was going to push for his lynch tomorrow.
Next, I don't get why everyone is saying the case on Sinani201 is "so strong".
Basically, accusations against newer players can be separated into three different ideas:
- Useless Posting
- Lurking
- Bad Play
These things are always a bad thing for a player to do, but are not always indicative of scum. The hard part is trying to tell the difference between it being a bad/newbie townie, and scum. Personally, I think in this case it's an instance of a newbie town.
The first two parts of Sinai206's analysis rest on useless posting and lurking. However, I disagree with his conclusions, and also how he creates his own motives for why Sinani201 is posting what he is.
For the next part, most of it looks a lot like bad town play to me, more than someone pushing scummy objectives, especially with posts like:
On June 28 2011 13:24 Sinani201 wrote:Show nested quote +
On June 28 2011 13:22 chaos13 wrote:
Would somebody mind assembling a list of the skilled/veteran players for myself and the others who are not familiar with all the names in the roster? A 'priority list', if you will, of players mafia are likely to kill first.
From this, it seems like you are either trying to help the Mafia, or softclaiming medic. Or perhaps trying to help the medic.
Sinani206 tries to play this up as being scummy, but this honestly makes Sinani201 seem more likely to be town, to me. The reason for this is, that a scummy player would simply notify his team if he thought someone made a blue slip, as opposed to pointing it out for everyone to see, which is bad play. So, this just ends up looking like a townie saying something bad while thinking out loud.
There's also a lot of idea twisting in the analysis, but I'm not going to point out every instance of it. If you want me to, I can, but otherwise I'm not going to exert the effort. So, I'm going to leave this with what I've said, and also just that I disagree with most of it.
As for other lynch targets. I think Hiro is scummy, but I don't know if it's worth lynching him today. The reasons for this are several. Firstly, his lynch gives us little information. He's not here anymore to defend himself, so there's not exactly much discussion to be had besides what's already on the table. Next, he's been incredibly inactive today, and will very likely be on the lurker list tomorrow. This means that ~OpZ~ can take a shot at him if he so desires, saving us the lynch. Lastly, since Hiro is incredibly inactive, he has very little thread influence. Since mafia KP is already dropped to one, we might as well hunt for the last mafia among us than spend our time waiting for the flip of Hiro, we're more productive that way. So, if we can't find anyone else who looks like scum, we can lynch Hiro, but otherwise we're better off saving him for a lurker bullet.
And now I've just tabbed back to the thread and saw that YM claimed hatter... So, I'm going to have to figure out what's happening now. 
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Same here, I post when I'm around, and I try to put a lot of content in. A lot better than just spam-posting or posting every 5 minutes about every idea I have...
That said, I disagree with the Sinani201 lynch, so I guess I'm voting for Hiro tonight.
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If you're a one-shot vig, why didn't you claim right before you shot?
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Yeah, I'll lynch Hiro. Like I said, I thought sinani201 was town. :p
It's also Canada Day, so I'm too lazy to hunt for someone else right now.
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Wait, I'm confused right now o.O
Are you saying I'll lynch hiro, or calling me scum?
If you think I'm scum, I'd like to see why, rather than just throwing my name out there. It's non-committal and scummy when there's no reasoning behind it.
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On July 02 2011 10:15 Sinani201 wrote:
Vanilla vigilante. You're right, I should have posted before/after killing DropBear, but I didn't. However there is no counter-evidence so there is no reason why you shouldn't trust me.
No, I was just curious, as it's normal to claim your shot directly before you shoot, to avoid ambiguity.
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On July 02 2011 10:19 syllogism wrote:
I'm inclined to believe his claim. That graph seems a bit too much effort for a scum and there's no counterclaim. He should still have a lurker shot left, which we can use tomorrow. I think I'll have to vote Hiro unless someone can make a quick case on Wiggles.
That's a pretty bad reason for voting... -_-
"Voting for this guy who has an analysis on him, unless someone can make an analysis on this other guy, in which case I'll just agree with that."
You basically just said that you'll vote for me no matter how good or bad the analysis is, or whether it even makes sense or not, there just need to be one.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://makeagif.com/media/5-12-2011/Cg7k3Q.gif)
